Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

First one of these of the season! Let's get right into it.

How Are They Doing Lately? They dropped two straight to the Padres. The Cubs suck.

OK, just kidding. Put it this way: The Pirates are tied for the tenth best record in baseball and the fifth best record in the National League. They are second in their division. But the trail the first place team in their division, the Cubs, by seven games. In the National League East, the fourth-place Marlins are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the National League West, the last-place Padres are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the American League East, the last-place Yankees are as close to first as the Pirates are. In the American League Central, the fourth-place Tigers are only half a game further from first than the Pirates are. In the American League West, the last-place Angels are only a game farther from first than the Pirates are.

The Cubs have the best record in baseball. They're scored the most runs per game. They've given up the fewest. They've scored, on average, three more runs per game than their opponents--no other team's outscored by more than 1.7--and, based on their run differential, they should be a game better than their 25-8 record. They've been really, really good. Don't take my word for it - Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs concur. And, of course, the Cubs swept three games at PNC Park a week and a half ago by a combined score of 20-5.

What's Going Right? Over the past 30 days, they're sixth in the league with a .263 batting average and .430 slugging percentage but first in on base percentage at .367. They've walked in 13% of plate appearances, by far the most in the league, and struck out in only 19%, the fourth lowest. They're last in the league at generating ground balls and swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. They're disciplined and good. On the mound, over the last 30 days, their starters' ERA of 2.06 is the best in the league by far, and the starters have the league's fourth highest strikeout rate, third highest ground ball rate, third highest rate of soft contact allowed, and the lowest rate of both hard contact and home runs as a percentage of fly balls. They've been a little lucky, allowing an unsustainably low .256 batting average on balls in play and an unsustainably high 82% of baserunners left stranded, but even with average figures, they'd be good.

What's Going Wrong? When the starters are going as well as the Cubs' have, there's a limited need to go to the bullpen--Cubs relievers have pitched the fewest innings in the league over the past 30 days--but Chicago's bullpen's been mortal, with a 4.20 ERA, sixth highest in the league, hurt by a high walk rate (13%, highest in the league) and too many fly balls leaving the park (18%, third highest). Cubs relievers have only five saves over the past 30 days, tied for the second fewest in the league, but that's more a reflection of the team's margin of victory, which doesn't create save opportunities.

Who's Hot? Oh, everybody, more or less. The team's getting above-average offensive performance from all four infield positions and left and center field. Three of the five starting pitchers have an ERA below 2.00 over the last 30 days (the Pirates will face all three) and the other two, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks, are at 2.76 and 3.10, respectively. Closer Hector Rondon has been pretty untouchable over the past 30 days, allowing four hits, one run and no walks while striking out fourteen over ten innings.  

Who's Not? Over the last 30 days, backup catcher David Ross, pressed into service by an injury to Miguel Montero, is hitting .179/.300/.359, but with very strong defense. The biggest bust has been free agent signee Jason Heyward, batting .205/.307/.250 and still looking for his first home run of the year. The relievers other than Rondon has had either a high ERA or peripherals (high walk and/or home run rates) that suggest that their ERAs should be higher.

What's the Outlook? In the Cubs series of May 2-4, the Pirates never led, not even for an inning, as they were mowed down by the Cubs' bats and starters Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, and Jon Lester. This time, they travel to Chicago, and they'll face...Hammel, Arrieta, and Lester. Am I expecting another sweep? No, but I'm not optimistic. The Cubs are good.

Schedules

Baseball has a pretty balanced schedule. It's not like the NFL, where some teams meet and some don't, creating easier or tougher schedules for teams. In MLB, each team plays its divisional opponents 19 times (a total of 76 games), 33 games against each of the other two divisions in its league (66 games), and 20 interleague games. But there are subtle differences. Let's analyze them for the Pirates and their two key National League Central rivals, the Cubs and the Cardinals.

Intradivisional games. Each team plays the other teams in the division 19 times, either ten home games and nine away or nine home and ten away. Since, in baseball, the home team wins about 54% of the time, more home games are an advantage. Here's the rundown:

• Brewers: The Cubs and Cardinals are home for ten, the Pirates for nine. Advantage Cubs and Cardinals.
• Reds: The Cardinals and Pirates are home for ten, the Cubs for nine. Advantage Cardinals and Pirates.
• Cubs-Cardinals: The Cubs are home for ten. Advantage Cubs.
• Cubs-Pirates: The Pirates are home for ten. Advantage Pirates.
• Cardinals-Pirates: The Cardinals are home for ten. Advantage Cardinals.

Intraleague games. These are unbalanced two ways. A team may play an opponent six or seven times, and if seven, either three or four will be home games. There are five teams in each the National League East and the National League West. In general, you'd rather play weak teams than good teams and, beyond that, rather be at home than away. Here are the ten opponents, starting in the East:

• Braves: Six games for the Cubs and Cardinals, seven for the Pirates. The Braves are a weak team. Advantage Pirates.
• Marlins: Each team plays seven games against Miami, three of them at home. No advantage.
• Mets: Six games for the Cardinals and Pirates, seven for the Cubs. The Mets are a good team. Advantage Cardinals and Pirates.
• Nationals: Six games for the Pirates, seven for the Cubs (four at home) and Cardinals (three at home). Advantage Pirates, then Cubs.
• Phillies: Six games for the Cubs, seven the Cardinals (four at home) and Pirates (three at home). The Phillies are a weak team. Advantage Cardinals, then Pirates.
• Diamondbacks: Six games for the Pirates, seven for the Cubs and Cardinals (three at home). The Diamondbacks are a decent team. Advantage Pirates.
• Dodgers: Six games for the Cardinals, seven for the Cubs and Pirates (four at home). The Dodgers are a good team. Advantage Cardinals.
• Giants: Seven games for all three teams, but only the Cardinals have only three games at home. Advantage Cubs and Pirates.
• Padres: Six games for the Cubs and Pirates, seven for the Cardinals. The Padres are a weak team. Advantage Cardinals.
• Rockies: Six games for the Cubs and Cardinals, seven for the Pirates. The Rockies are a weak team. Advantage Pirates.

Interleague: Every year a division plays one division in the other league. This year, the National League Central plays the American League West. There are both four-game series (two at home, two on the road) and three-game series (all either home or away) against interleague opponents. There are also four games (two home, two away) against a "traditional" opponent.

• Angels: Four for the Cubs, three at home for the Pirates, three away for St. Louis. The Angels are a mediocre team, so being at home is advantageous. Advantage Pirates, then Cubs.
• Astros: Four for the Cardinals, three at home for the Pirates, three away for St. Louis. The Astros are a good team, so the fewer games against them, the better. Advantage Pirates, then Cardinals.
• Athletics: Three at home for the Cardinals, three on the road for the Cubs and Pirates. Advantage Cardinals.
• Mariners: Four for the Pirates, three at home for the Cubs, three away for the Cardinals. I expect the Mariners to be a good team, so the fewer games, the better. Advantage Cubs, then Cardinals.
• Rangers: Three at home for the Cubs and Cardinals, three away for the Pirates. Advantage Cubs and Cardinals.
• Traditional: The Cardinals play the defending World Series champion Royals. The Cubs play their crosstown rivals, the White Sox, while the Pirates play the Tigers, apparently because some people still haven't gotten over the 1909 World Series. The Royals are the better team. Advantage Cubs and Pirates. 

Assigning each team one point for an advantage and half a point for a secondary ('then") advantage, I get 11.5 points for Pittsburgh, 10 for St. Louis, and 7 for Chicago. These advantages are pretty small and, in several cases, speculative. so I wouldn't put much weight into them. However, I'd say at this point that the 2016 confers a slight advantage for the Pirates over its two key foes.

'Tis Better to Have Played and Lost

Once the New York Yankees were eliminated in the American League wild card game, it was clear that the theme of this postseason was going to be one of redemption. Of the eight teams in the Division Series (other than the St. Louis Cardinals), the Toronto Blue Jays were the team that had most recently won the World Series, and that was back in 1993. Last night, the Kansas City Royals ended their 30-year World Series drought by extending the New York Mets' streak of not winning the Series to 29 years.

Even so, the reaction from a number of teams is legitimately, "cry me a river." Here are a list of the teams that have gone the longest without a World Championship:

ORIGINAL 16 MAJOR LEAGUE FRANCHISES

• Chicago Cubs: Last won in 1908. Last appeared in 1945. You may have heard about this.
• Cleveland Indians: Last won in 1948. Last appeared in 1997.
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Last won in 1979. Last appeared in 1979.
• Baltimore Orioles: Last won in 1983. Last appeared in 1983.
• Detroit Tigers: Last won in 1984. Last appeared in 2012.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Last won in 1988. Last appeared in 1988.
• Oakland Athletics: Last won in 1989. Last appeared in 1990.
• Cincinnati Reds: Last won in 1990. Last appeared in 1990.
• Minnesota Twins: Last won in 1991. Last appeared in 1991.
• Atlanta Braves: Last won in 1995. Last appeared in 1999.
• Chicago White Sox: Last won in 2005. Last appeared in 2005.
• Philadelphia Phillies: Last won in 2008. Last appeared in 2009.
• New York Yankees: Last won in 2009. Last appeared in 2009.
• St. Louis Cardinals: Last won in 2011. Last appeared in 2013.
• Boston Red Sox: Last won in 2013. Last appeared in 2013.
• San Francisco Giants: Last won in 2014. Last appeared in 2014.

EXPANSION FRANCHISES

• Texas Rangers: Never won (franchise established in 1961 as the Washington Senators). Last appeared in 2011.
• Houston Astros: Never won (franchise established in 1962). Last appeared in 2005.
• Milwaukee Brewers: Never won (franchise established in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots). Last appeared in 1982.
• San Diego Padres: Never won (franchise established in 1969). Last appeared in 1988.
• Washington Nationals: Never won (franchise established in 1969 as the Montreal Expos). Never appeared.
• Seattle Mariners: Never won (franchise established in 1977). Never appeared.
• New York Mets: Last won in 1986 (franchise established in 1962). Last appeared in 2015.
• Toronto Blue Jays: Last won in 1993 (franchise established in 1977). Last appeared in 1993.
• Colorado Rockies: Never won (franchise established in 1993). Last appeared in 2007.
• Tampa Bay Rays: Never won (franchise established in 1998). Last appeared in 2008.
• Arizona Diamondbacks: Last won in 2001 (franchise established in 1998). Last appeared in 2001.
• Los Angeles Angels: Last won in 2002 (franchise established in 1961). Last appeared in 2002.
• Miami Marlins: Last won in 2003 (franchise established in 1993). Last appeared in 2003.
• Kansas City Royals: Last won in 2015 (franchise established in 1969). Last appeared in 2015.

So yeah, it's a bummer being a Mets fan today. But 11 of the 30 teams in the majors have been waiting longer for a World Series championship team, including three (the Cubs, Indians, and Senators/Rangers) who've been waiting longer than the Mets have existed.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Championship Series Edition

I batted .500 in the wild cards round, getting the Cubs over the Pirates but not the Astros over the Cubs. I did better in the Divisional Series round, correctly picking Toronto over Texas, Kansas City over Houston, and Chicago over St. Louis, missing New York over Los Angeles. (For those of you who listened to my Banished to the Pen podcast appearance, my pick of Toronto over Los Angeles in the World Series is already kaput.) 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - TORONTO VS. KANSAS CITY

The American League Division Series offered the possibility of interesting Championship Series matchups: Power vs. power Toronto/Houston. All-Lone Star State Texas/Houston. Instead, we've got what was probably the most likely outcome: The two teams with the best record in the American League. Both American League Division Series went the full five games, so the teams have equally depleted pitching staffs. Toronto will start Marco Estrada tonight, David Price tomorrow afternoon, and Marcus Stroman Monday night against the Royals' Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Johnny Cueto, respectively.

This series, like Kansas City's against Houston, features some contrasts in hitting, though fewer than in the Division Series. The Blue Jays led the league in home runs; the Royals were second to last. Toronto drew the most walks, Kansas City the fewest. But the Blue Jays don't pair strikeouts with power: They had the fourth lowest strikeout rate, though Kansas City had the lowest by far. As a result, while the Royals get kudos for making contact when they swing, their contact rate, second in the league, isn't dramatically higher than that of the Jays (seventh), and the Jays are less free-swinging, chasing the second lowest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone as the Royals chased the second highest

Both teams made big pitching acquisitions at the trade deadline, with the Royals adding Cueto and the Blue Jays getting Price. Since the All-Star break, Blue Jays pitchers allowed the lowest rate of hard contact on batted balls, the third highest rate of soft contact, and the lowest rate of home runs on fly balls. The Royals were seventh on all three measures. Over the full season, the Royals had the better bullpen, but the two teams' relievers were very close in the season's second half, with a 3.33 ERA for Kansas City and a 3.35 ERA for Toronto. Toronto's relievers struck out fewer batters but walked a lot fewer. 

Toronto got here by playing one of the most memorable playoff games ever in the deciding Game Five. Kansas City's Game Five win was much less exciting. But it's not a carryover of momentum or emotion or heart that's going to decide the series. It's talent, and from what I can see, the Blue Jays have more at the plate and in their starting rotation, with the Royals having better fielders and a better bullpen. I'll take the Blue Jays' plusses over the Royals'. Toronto in six.


NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - CHICAGO VS. NEW YORK

There could be as many four dates on which there will be both ALCS and NLCS games: Saturday the 17th and Tuesday the 20th for sure, Wednesday the 21st and Saturday the 24th depending on how far the series go. Gee, which of the two games on those dates do you think will get the prime time slot: Kansas City (No. 31 media market in US) vs. Toronto (No. 1 in Canada, a nation with a population less than that of California), or Chicago (No. 3 in US) vs. New York (No. 1)? [UPDATE: I wrote that before MLB announced the official start times. I was 75% right. The Cubs-Mets game is prime time on October 17, October 20, and, if the ALCS goes to five games, October 21. It'll be the afternoon game on October 24, but only if the ALCS goes to seven games.]

These two teams are surprisingly similar. You think of the Cubs, and you think of young hitters, and you'd be right: per Baseball Reference, Cubs hitters are the second youngest in the league. You think of the Mets, and you think of young pitchers, and you'd be kind of right: Baseball Reference lists the Mets as the seventh youngest, but that's thrown off by the presence of 42-year-old Bartolo Colon; remove him and they're second or third youngest. But here are the similarities:

• On offense, both teams are extreme fly ball hitters. The Cubs and Mets were 1-2 in the 15-team National League in percentage of batted balls that were fly balls, and 14-15 in the percentage of batted balls that were grounders.
• When they hit the ball in the air, they left the park more than average: the Cubs were fourth in homers/fly balls, the Mets fifth.
• They both refused to chase pitches outside the strike zone. The Mets swung at the lowest percentage of pitches outside the zone, the Cubs the second lowest.
• Batters had a hard time making contact against both pitching staffs: The Mets were 11th in contact rate, the Cubs 12th. And they kept fly balls in the yard, as Mets pitchers were tenth in homers/fly balls, the Cubs eleventh.
• Both pitching staffs struck out a lot of batters, though, contrary to perception, the Cubs hurlers struck out more, with the highest strikeout rate in the league. The Mets were fifth. Both avoided bases on balls, as the Mets had the second lowest walk rate and the Cubs the fourth lowest.
• Both teams' pitchers induced a lot of grounders, with the Cubs and Mets ranking sixth and seventh in percentage of batted balls hit on the ground.

There were some differences. The Cub hitters struck out more (first in the league) than the Mets (eighth), but they also walked more (second highest walk rate, the Mets were sixth). Mets pitchers were more fly ball prone, and Cubs pitchers more line drive prone.

I'm picking the Cubs in seven for three reasons. First, once you adjust for their respective home fields, the Cubs had a better pitching staff. Park-adjusted offense is a bit of a tossup (the Mets overall appear to be a bit better), but park-adjusted pitching isn't. Second, the Cubs's last game was on Tuesday, so their pitching staff will enter the NLCS pretty well rested, while the Mets won't have Jacob deGrom available until the third game of the series, and it's not clear when Noah Syndergaard, who pitched only one inning yesterday but warmed up multiple times, will be ready to go. Third, while both teams came on strong during the second half of the season, the Mets had a considerably easier schedule. Beginning July 28, the Mets played 63 games, going 39-24: Six against the Yankees and Pirates, against whom they went 1-5; nine against the Nationals, who were in meltdown mode; and 48 against teams that finished .500 or worse. The Cubs, over the same stretch, played better--45-19--against a much tougher schedule that included 19 games against teams that qualified for the postseason. As a result, Baseball Prospectus calculates the Cubs with 96 third order wins (based on run differential and quality of opponents) compared to 88 for the Mets. I expect a close series between two similar and evenly matched teams, but I think the Cubs are the better club.

A Wild Card Game of Inches

This postseason has had no shortage of stories: Utley's slide, Gibbons leaving in Cecil to pitch to Napoli, the Royals' singles vs. the Astros' homers, Price in long relief in a blowout, Molina's thumb...yet to Pirates fans, we're on the outside looking in. We're still stuck on Jake Arrieta's shutout last Wednesday in the wild card game. During last night's Cubs-Cardinals game, a lot of Pirates followers must've said, as my wife did, while watching Arrieta surrender four runs on five hits and two walks in five and two-thirds innings, "Why couldn't he have pitched that way against the Pirates?" After all, he was unhittable against the Bucs: Complete game shutout, five hits and no walks, eleven strikeouts. The Pirates didn't have a chance.

Except...they sort of did. This article by Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is the best post-mortem I've read of the wild card game. It's not long, and it's a good read, but if you want to skip it, Cameron's point is that the Pirates did have a chance against Arrieta. In the sixth inning, Arrieta hit third baseman Josh Harrison. Sandwiched around Harrison's stroll to first, four Pirates batters absolutely smoked four batted balls. Each left their bats traveling over 100 miles per hour. Balls hit that hard are usually base hits, often for extra bases. But instead, the Pirates got:

• Pinch hitter Travis Snider, single
• Right fielder Gregory Polanco, lineout
• Center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reached on error, runners advanced one base
• Left fielder Starling Marte, grounded into double play

Now, this wasn't all bad luck on the Pirates' part. Every one of the batted balls was hit on the ground or on a line drive. None of them were hit in the air, where they would've had a good chance of landing in the outfield for extra bases, or over the fence, and that's due at least in part to Arrieta's skill as a pitcher. But other than Snider, every one of the Pirates' screaming hits went right to a Cubs infielder--Polanco to third baseman Kris Bryant, who made a juggling catch on the fly, and McCutchen and Marte to shortstop Addison Russell, who couldn't handle McCutchen's shot but turned Marte's into an inning-ending twin killing. Let's say those balls were hit just a couple inches to the left or right of where they were. Snider singles up the middle. Polanco's rocket goes down the left field line, resulting in a double, runners on second and third. Harrison's hit, loading the bases. McCutchen singles to center, runners advancing a base, and Marte does the same. Now it's a 4-2 game with one out and the bases loaded. Or maybe Harrison scores on Marte's single, making it 4-3. One out, Cervelli and Walker due up. It would've been a different ballgame, and it turned on a four balls that were nailed, going right into fielders' gloves, instead of just out of their reach. 

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Division Series Round

Well, that was clever. Wrote the previews, then forget to publish them. These are a day old. Sorry.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas vs. Toronto: This series is viewed as the most lopsided among the Division Series, with Toronto heavily favored. I agree. Texas' big trading deadline acquisition, lefthanded starter Cole Hamels, will start in the second game on Friday and, if necessary, in the fifth game on Wednesday. However, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League against lefties. They scored the most runs in the league (5.7 per game; the Rangers were a distant second at 5.1) and gave up the fewest (3.7; the Rangers were eighth at 4.6). I could see the Blue Jays sweeping this one. [Note: I wrote this before the Rangers won last night's game, 5-3. I still think the Jays will win the series. I'm assuming third baseman Josh Donaldson and right fielder Jose Bautista, who left Thursday's game with injuries, are healthy.] For a more comprehensive look at this series, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Barry Gilpin's preview here.

Houston vs. Kansas City: Another series with a clear favorite, as the Astros fell out of the American League West lead late in the season and struggled to qualify as a wild card, while the Royals had the best record in the American League. However, the Astros overall played better ball than their record indicated, based on the underlying statistics, while the Royals won five more games than their run production would predict. These two teams are a stark contrast: Houston hits home runs and strikes out in bunches, Kansas City batters led the league in contact and had the lowest strikeout rate, by far. Kansas City had a surprisingly weak rotation and a shutdown bullpen; Houston's rotation was solid, anchored by likely Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, and a bullpen that looked gassed down the stretch. I'm favoring the Royals in five because the Astros will get only one game from Keuchel and because the Royals pitchers were very effective against fly ball hitters, and no team hit a larger proportion of fly balls than the Astros. [Note: I wrote this before the Astros won last night's game, 5-2. I'm not feeling good about that prediction; if the Royals don't win today, it's going to be a real struggle for them.] For a more comprehensive look at the series, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Cardinals had the best record in baseball, but the Cubs had the third best. Like the Astros, the Cubs have a Cy Young candidate, Jake Arrieta, who was used in the wild card game and will thus be available in only Game 3 of this series. Unlike the Astros, who faded in the stretch, the Cubs had the best record in the National League in the second half of the year, scoring the second must runs in the league and allowing the third fewest since the All-Star break. The Cardinals are relying on a number of players coming off injuries who may or may not be at their best: catcher Yadier Molina, pitcher Adam Wainwright (who'll be available only out of the bullpen), and outfielders Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, and Stephen Piscotty. Pitcher Carlos Martinez is out with a shoulder injury and first baseman Matt Adams, recovering from a leg injury, is not on the Division Series roster. I pick the Cubs in four games. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

New York vs. Los Angeles: It's hard to imagine a New York vs. Los Angeles series not getting top billing, but the longtime Chicago/St. Louis rivalry and the Cubs' history (107 years since their last World Series championship) may take center stage. The story of this series will be pitching: the Mets' young guns vs. the Dodgers' two Cy Young contenders, lefty Clayton Kershaw and righty Zack Greinke. (The secondary story will be the Madoff-scammed financially constrained Mets vs. the more-money-than-God Dodgers.) Both teams had surprisingly good offenses (the Dodgers were seventh in scoring and the Mets eighth despite both playing in pitcher-friendly parks) and strong closers with OK-not-great middle relief. I'm taking the Dodgers in five games, as the Mets' record was juiced by playing in the very weak National League East (the club was 43-43 outside of their home division) while the Dodgers bullpen, a perennial weakness that helped torpedo their last playoff appearances, seemed to have found its footing after the All-Star break. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Darius Austin's very thorough preview here.

Fast Thoughts on Another Early Exit

Russell Martin led off the seventh inning on October 1, 2013 by hitting a home run on a full count against Cincinnati Reds reliever Logan Ondrusek. Do you remember the play? Me neither. But it was the last run scored by the Pirates in a wild card game. Since Martin's blast, the Pirates have gotten nine singles and one walk and no runs in 21 innings of wild card baseball.

• I wish I'd have been wrong about my predication, but Jake Arrieta really is unstoppable. I think the Pirates would have had a shot if the wild card game were a series, but one game against Arrieta is unfair for anyone.
• Yes, Arrieta could have defused the situation that precipitated the bench-clearing incident in the seventh by just taking his base, but come on, Tony Watson was totally in the wrong by hitting him with a pitch. Yes, Arrieta's pitch that sailed near Francisco Cervelli's head was scary. But does anyone really think it was anything other than an accident? This macho "gotta protect my teammates" nonsense is what put Andrew McCutchen on the disabled list a year ago. I've said it before: Someday, baseball is going to have another Ray Chapman moment, and it's going to make all this eye-for-an-eye retaliation crap involving throwing hard objects at 90+ mph seem really, really irresponsible and stupid.
• You hear a lot about the importance of games in September during the pennant drive. Well, the baseball season's 162 games long, and each game's important. As I pointed out on Sunday, the Pirates would have won the division had they played as well against the Brewers and Reds as did everybody else. The Pirates opened the season by dropping three straight in Cincinnati. They lost three in a row in Milwaukee right after the All-Star break. Had either of those April or July series been reversed, the Pirates would be secretly happy that they'd have to face Arrieta only once in the Divisional Series against the Cubs, which would open Friday night at PNC Park. Every game matters.
• We've got the whole offseason to think about this, but the Pirates have some decisions to make. Aramis Ramirez and A.J. Burnett are retiring. J.A. Happ, Joakim Soria, Antonio Bastardo, and Sean Rodriguez will be free agents. Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Melancon, Chris Stewart, and Cervelli are entering their final year of arbitration after decent to very good seasons, meaning they're going to cost the Pirates a lot more money and will be eligible for free agency after next season. Other arbitration-eligible players include Watson, Jared Hughes, Jordy Mercer, and Jeff Locke. Economics may force roster changes.
• Pirates won't be winning any awards this year. McCutchen will probably be in the top five, maybe the top three, for MVP, but Washington's Bryce Harper locked that down months ago. Gerrit Cole had a great season, but Arrieta and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke were on a higher plane than anybody and will split the Cy Young vote. Jung Ho Kang was not going to win the Rookie of the Year even before he got hurt--the Cubs' Kris Bryant will get it--but he ought to be in the top three. Clint Hurdle managed the Pirates to the third most wins in franchise history, but the Mets' Terry Collins and the Cubs' Joe Maddon guided perennial losing teams to the postseason; Maddon looks to be Manager of the Year.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Wild Card Round

We'll do this one playoff round at a time. As Gregg Easterbrook would say (before he signed with the NY Times and became much more boring), All Predictions Wrong or Your Money Back.

American League Wild Card Game: Astros at Yankees. It's pretty ridiculous to try to predict the result of a short series. Say there are two teams, A, and B. They play 100 games against each other. A wins 60, B wins 40. In terms of won-lost percentage, that's roughly the Pirates playing the Braves. If you do the math, you'll see that the inferior team take a seven-game series 29% of the time. It'll win a best-of-five series 32% of the time. And, of course, it'll win one game 40% of the time. For closely-matched teams, the difference is negligible. And that's over five or seven games. The fewer games, the greater the variance. A one-game play-in? That's why Joe Sheehan calls the wild card the "coin flip game."

Anyway, the American League Wild Card game will have the Yankees hosting the Astros. Neither have exactly covered themselves in glory of late, as the Yankees lost six of their last seven games, going 10-16 since September 7. The Astros are 13-17 since the end of August. Both teams were in first place, the Astros as recently as September 14 and the Yankees on August 24, before losing their leads. But, as Rob Neyer recently pointed out, there is little evidence that performance at the end of the year has a bearing on postseason performance, and I found the same last year. So let's look at Tuesday's game without the baggage of recent play.

When you consider a postseason series, you evaluate each team's pitching, hitting, and defense as a whole. In a one-game play-in, though, one player--the starting pitcher--plays an outsized role. Last year, the Giants eliminated the Pirates because Giants starter Madison Bumgarner had a very good game (four hit, ten strikeout complete game shutout) and Pirates starter Edinson Volquez didn't (five runs allowed in five innings). That's not always the case--last year's crazy Royals-Athletics wild card game came down to bullpens and baserunning--but in one game, one starting pitcher can dictate the outcome.

The Yankees will go with Masahiro Tanaka. He got lit up (six runs in five innings) in his one career start against the Astros, on June 27 against in Houston, but you can't draw any conclusions from one start. He has the lowest ERA in the team's rotation (3.51; rookie Luis Severino's is 2.89 only 62 innings). He had a 3.22 ERA in April, was shut down in May, 4.35 in June, 3.67 in July, 3.18 in August, and 3.06 in September, during which he sandwiched three very strong starts (21 strikeouts, one walk, 15 hits in 21 innings, 1.29 ERA) around two bad ones (eight strikeouts, two walks, 11 hits in 11.1 innings, 6.35 ERA). One worrisome trait: He allowed 1.46 home runs per nine innings, the fourth highest rate in the league for pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched, which isn't ideal against an Astros team that hit 230 home runs this year, second only to the Blue Jays' 232.

The Astros are going to start Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel had a fantastic season. He led the American League in wins (20), WHIP (1.017), innings (232), and ERA adjusted for home park (62% better than average). He was second in ERA (2.48), home runs per nine innings (0.7), and hits allowed per nine innings (7.2). He was fifth in strikeout/walk ratio, tied for fifth in strikeout (216), and tenth in strikeouts per nine innings (8.4). He'll probably win the Cy Young Award, and if he doesn't, he'll almost certainly finish second. On paper, Tanaka can't compare to him. But there are two problems with Keuchel against the Yankees:

• He had a crazy home/road split: 15-0, 1.46 ERA, .474 OPS allowed at home; 5-8, 3.77 ERA, .698 OPS allowed on the road. He'll be pitching on the road. (In fairness, his one start this year at Yankee Stadium was fantastic: seven innings, three hits, no walks, no runs, nine strikeouts.)
• He pitched six innings, throwing 99 pitches in Friday's 21-5 Houston victory over Arizona. That means he'll start Tuesday's game on three days rest. He's never done that as a starter. This article, by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan, explains that the history of starters pitching on short rest in the postseason is not good.

If Keuchel falters, Houston's game will be in the hands of its relievers. The Astros have a better bullpen ERA, but that's misleading. New York has two of the best relievers in baseball, Dellin Betances (1.50 ERA, struck out 39% of the batters he faced) and Andrew Miller (1.90 ERA, struck out 41% of the batters he faced). In a close game, those two, and perhaps former Pirate Justin Wilson (3.10 ERA) are all that opponents will face. The rest of the bullpen's 4.72 ERA shouldn't be a factor in a close game. The Astros, whose 3.27 bullpen ERA was better than the Yankees' 3.70, have more evenly distributed quality arms but don't have anyone to match the Yankees' top two, arguably top three.

On offense, the teams have similarities. The Yankees were eighth in the league in batting average, the Astros were eleventh. The Yankees were sixth in on base percentage, the Astros were eighth. The Yankees were third in slugging percentage, the Astros were second. The Astros, as noted, were second in the league in home runs, and the Yankees were fourth. They can each draw walks; New York was second in walk rate, Houston fifth. They both like to hit the ball in the air; the Astros and Yankees were 1-2 in fly ball rate and 15-14 in ground ball rate. They had some differences: The Astros led the league in stolen bases with 121 while the Yankees were third to last with 63, and the Astros led the league in strikeout rate while the Yankees were ninth. But overall, the offenses are similar. 

It's worth mentioning that the Astros have the youngest team in the league at the plate (average age, per Baseball Reference, 26.6 years) while the Yankees have the oldest (31.1). But the Yankees have the third-youngest pitching staff (27.4) and the Astros the second-oldest (29.4). I can't see how that's relevant in a one-game play-in, though, unless the game lasts, I don't know, four or five years.

The Yankees finished the year with a 45-36 record at home, the seventh best in the league, and were 42-39 on the road, one of only four American League teams with a winning record on the road. The Astros somewhat famously tied Toronto for the best home record in the league, 53-28, but their road record of 33-48 was second worst in the league and enough, in my view, to make them the underdogs Tuesday night. Keuchel on short rest and the Yankee bullpen are additional reasons to favor the home team.

National League Wild Card Game: Cubs at Pirates. Listen, and understand! Jake Arietta is out there! He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead. 

Next Up: The Suddenly Competitive Cincinnati Reds

Not for anything good, mind you. Here are the teams with the eight worst records in the majors as of the All-Star break: 
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 29 62 .319  --
Milwaukee    38 52 .422  9.5
Miami        38 51 .427 10
Colorado     39 49 .443 11.5
Oakland      41 50 .451 12
Cincinnati   39 47 .453 12.5

San Diego    41 49 .456 12.5
Seattle      41 48 .461 13

Here's where it was at the start of September:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 52 80 .394  --
Miami        53 79 .402  1
Colorado     53 76 .411  2.5
Atlanta      54 77 .412  2.5
Cincinnati   54 76 .415  3
Milwaukee    55 75 .423  4

Oakland      58 74 .439  6
Seattle      61 71 .462  9

And today:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 62 97 .390  --
Cincinnati   63 96 .396  1
Atlanta      64 95 .403  2
Colorado     66 93 .415  4
Oakland      66 93 .415  4
Milwaukee    68 91 .428  6

Miami        69 90 .434  7
Detroit      73 85 .462 11.5

Why's this relevant? Well, the worst record earns you the No. 1 pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's valuable. First picks, historically, do considerably better than other picks, even No. 2. So the difference between being the worst and the second-worst is significant. Cincinnati's been making an impressive drive for the that top draft choice! (And what in the world have the Marlins been thinking?)


How Are They Doing Lately? When a team moves up in the ranks of the worst teams in baseball, it's not because they're doing well. The Reds have lost 12 in a row going into the season-ending weekend series at PNC Park. The 1993 Reds also lost 12 straight, and the team could tie the 1930 and 1945 Reds with 13 straight losses tonight. (The all-time franchise record of 19 straight losses, set in 1914, is out of reach.) Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati has the worst record in the league over the last 30 days, 9-19. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, .001 runs per game more than the fourth-worst Cardinals, while giving up 5.6 runs per game, easily the most in the league, over a half a run more than the next-worst Braves.

What's Going Right? I've mentioned this a number of times, but two pitching figures that can reflect luck are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners stranded. Most players and teams tend toward the league averages (.299 batting average on balls in play and 73% strand rate in the National League over the past 30 days). The Reds have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the stranded the lowest percentage of baserunners over the past 30 days, indicating they've probably been a little unlucky. 

What's Going Wrong? Over the past 30 days, the Reds are eleventh in the league in batting (.248), 13th in on base percentage (.308), and 13th in slugging (.388). They've struck out the fourth most frequently and walked the fourth most infrequently. They've had the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. And the pitching has completely melted down; the bullpen ERA of 4.70 is the third worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the starters' 5.82 ERA is the second worst. 

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is closing out a sensational season, batting .329 with a .487 on base percentage and .482 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. He's got a .547 on base percentage in the second half of the season. The only players who've bested that over half a season are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.317/.336/.433 slash line) is also winding up a strong second half; his .759 OPS trails only the Mets' Daniel Murphy (.824) and the Pirates' Neil Walker (.762) among regular second basemen in the National League since the All-Star break. Closer Aroldis Chapman, in limited save opportunities, has a 0.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 9.2 innings, covering the last 30 days.

Who's Not? No Reds starter has an ERA lower than 4.73 over the past 30 days, including the weekend's starters, Keyvius Sampson (6.52), Brandon Finnegan (6.00), and Josh Smith (7.07). The weakest bats over the past 30 days have been those of left/center fielder Jason Bourgeois (.237/.297/.335), utility man Ivan DeJesus (.222/.246/.370) and catcher Tucker Barnhart (.179/.238/.196).

What's the Outlook? The Pirates can't completely coast. Their magic number over the Cubs for home field in Wednesday's wild card play-in game is two, meaning they need a combination of two victories over the Reds and/or Brewers victories over the Cubs over the weekend to put the game in PNC Park. But we should expect to see some position players get time off. As for the Reds, they have to hope the Phillies can extend their four-game winning streak at home against the Marlins, opening the door for Cincinnati to nab the top draft pick next summer.

Wow, Tough Loss. Now, Please Don't Bounce Back. Give Up.

The Pirates lost to the Cardinals, 3-0, yesterday. It was a tough, tough, loss, as the Pirates had multiple scoring opportunities--they loaded the bases in four different innings--but were unable to push a run across the plate. In all, they left 16 runners on base. That's the most in a nine-inning game in the majors this season, and the most in the majors since the Pirates stranded 16 in a 10-3 win against the Padres in June last year. For Pirates fans, it was reminiscent of the team's early struggles, when it got runners on base but failed to score. 

The National League Central standings are now:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  99 58 .631  --
Pittsburgh 95 62 .605   4
Chicago    91 65 .583 7.5

The Cardinals and Pirates have five more games to play. The Cubs have six.

• If the Cardinals win two of their last five games--they finish their season this weekend in Atlanta, playing the team with the second-worst record in the majors--they'll clinch the division, regardless of what the Pirates do. 
• If the Cards win just one of their next five, the Pirates will have to win every game remaining this year (two against St. Louis, three against Cincinnati) in order to play a one-game playoff on Monday to determine the division champion. The loser of that game will host the Cubs next Wednesday for the wild card play-in.
• If the Cards go 0-5 for the rest of the season and Pirates win every remaining game, the Pirates will win the Central and skip the Wild Card game. If the Cardinals go 0-5 and the Pirates go 4-1, the teams will tie and play on Monday.

Put another way: For the Pirates to win the division outright, they'll have to go 5-0 and the Cardinals 0-5 the rest of the season. That means the Pirates will have to win the next two days against St. Louis and sweep the season-ending series at home against the Reds, who are 10-6 against Pittsburgh this year. It means the Cardinals will have to drop both games against the Pirates and lose three straight on the road against an Atlanta team that hasn't won three straight against a team with a winning record since June and has easily the worst record in the majors since the All-Star Break. For the Pirates to host the Cardinals Monday to determine the championship, they still have to win both of the remaining St. Louis games, and they can lose one game to the Reds or the Cardinals can win one game against the Braves. They go 5-0 and the Cardinals 1-4, or they go 4-1 and the Cardinals 0-5.

Anything is possible. But the scenarios I described are highly, highly unlikely. They're sufficiently unlikely that we can safely say they're not going to happen.

How about the Cubs, though? Are the Pirates at risk of losing home field advantage in the wild card game next Wednesday? The Cubs will be the home field team if they finish with a better overall record than the Pirates or if the teams are tied, as the first tiebreaker for determining home field advantage is head-to-head record. The Cubs won the season series against Pittsburgh, 11-8. So in order for the Pirates to play the wild card game at home, they need to finish ahead of the Cubs. The Cubs start a three-game series against the Reds tonight and have a three-game set against the Brewers this weekend, all on the road.

• If the Cubs sweep both series, the Pirates will still finish ahead of them in the standings if they go 3-2.
• If the Cubs go 5-1, the Pirates will need to go 2-3.
• If the Cubs go 4-2, the Pirates will need to win just one game.
• If the Cubs don't win four of their remaining six, the Pirates will host the wild card game regardless of what they do in their remaining games. 

Both the Brewers and Reds have been playing pretty bad ball of late. Over the past couple weeks, the Reds have the worst record in baseball, 3-10, and the Brewers are tied for the third worst, 4-9. The Cubs have beaten up on both teams this year, going 11-5 against Milwaukee and 10-6 against Cincinnati. Still, winning all six games is going to be hard, particularly since only one will be started by the unstoppable Jake Arrieta. So let's say the Cubs go 5-1. If the Pirates lose tonight, the Cardinals will clinch the division. It's not hard to see the Pirates winning Wednesday's Gerrit Cole-Tyler Lyons mismatch against a hung over Cardinals team. Then they have to take just one of three over the weekend, against a Reds team that's playing out the string, in order to stay ahead of the Cubs. 

So my hope for the Pirates is that, since winning the division is now effectively out of reach, they lose tonight and start giving players days off. They've played 29 games in the last 30 days. Neil Walker's had one day off. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte have had two. Jordy Mercer and Gregory Polanco have missed only four. Francisco Cervelli has caught all but six games. Five relievers have appeared in twelve or more games. Give them some time off. Let the bruises heal and sore muscles recover. Let them sleep in and sharpen their mental edge. Accept the inevitability of losing the division title and accept the likelihood of hosting the wild card game. The Cubs will start Arrieta. The Pirates will need all the advantage they can get.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Pirates have won six in a row, after having dropped four in a row (including three to the Cubs). Here's how the National League Central standings looked on the morning of September 19, before the Pirates embarked on their hot streak, taking two in Los Angeles from the Dodgers and four in Denver from the Rockies:

      St. Louis   92  55  ---
      Pittsburgh  87  60  5.0
      Chicago     86  61  6.0

And here's what a six-game winning streak buys you:

      St. Louis   97  56  ---
      Pittsburgh  93  60  4.0
      Chicago     89  63  7.5

Best record in baseball over the past week, and all it yields is one game against the division leader and one and a half over your nearest rival. The top of this division is just ridiculous.

How Are They Doing Lately? Continuing on that theme, over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 16-12 record, fifth best in the league, trailing the Cardinals (17-11) by a game and the Pirates (18-11) by a game and a half. That makes the Cubs a game short of joining the Cardinals and Pirates as playing .600-plus ball over the past 30 days. During that period, the Cubs have scored 4.8 runs per game, fourth in the league, while giving up 4.1 runs per game, the sixth fewest. The Pirates are one slot ahead of the Cubs in both categories, scoring 4.9 and giving up 4.0 per game. 

What's Going Right? Not a lot has changed since the teams met in Pittsburgh a week and a half ago. Cubs starting pitchers have the second best ERA in the league, 3.49, over the past 30 days, with the third highest strikeout rate, third lowest walk rate, fourth lowest rate of hard contact allowed, third highest rate of inducing swings outside the strike zone, and lowest rate of home runs allowed on fly balls. The bullpen's been less spectacular but still good: 3.49 ERA, sixth in the league, with the fourth highest strikeout rate and second highest rate of ground balls induced. At the plate, the Cubs are fair at getting on base (their .253 batting average over the last 30 days is tenth in the league and their .329 on base percentage is seventh) but they've got power. Their .428 slugging percentage is third in the league, powered by the most doubles and third most homers in the league over the past 30 days. That gives them a .175 isolated slugging average (slugging percentage minus batting average, measuring pure power), second only to the Mets.

What's Going Wrong? Two pitching measures that tend to regress toward the mean are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners left stranded. A team that's unusually good has probably been a little lucky, and a team that's unusually bad has probably been a little unlucky. The Cubs bullpen has the third-lowest batting average on balls in play and the fourth-highest strand rate in the league over the past 30 days, which suggests they haven't been as good as they've seemed. The Cubs hitters present a particular challenge for the Pirates pitching staff because the Cubs generate a lot of fly balls--their ratio of ground balls to fly balls is the third lowest in the league over the past 30 days--while the Pirates pitchers, as you probably know, rely on grounders, with the second highest ground ball/fly ball ratio in the league over the same period. Just as with lefty/righty platoons, fly ball hitters tend to do well against ground ball pitchers, and vice-versa. So the fly ball-happy Cubs batters could pose problems for the grounder-focused Pirates hurlers. On the other hand, the Pirates, somewhat contrary to their pitch-to-contact reputation, generate a fair number of strikeouts, with the fifth-highest K rate in the league over the past 30 days, and the Cubs are free swingers, with the second-highest strikeout rate and highest rate of whiffs on swings (26%) over the past 30 days. If the Pirates pitchers succeed, it may be less by generating ground balls and more by generating strike three against the whiff-prone Cubs.

Who's Hot? Jake Arrieta is the Pirates' main impediment to advancing in the postseason. He's the logical candidate to start a wild card play-in game against the Pirates, and he seems unstoppable. Over the past 30 days, the majors' first 20 game winner has a 0.43 ERA. He's allowed a .182 batting average on balls in play and he's stranded 93% of the runners who've gotten on base, which indicates a little luck, but you need good luck hitting against him: 42 strikeouts, 24 hits plus walks over his last 42 innings. He starts Sunday night's ESPN game. Kris Bryant, solidifying his Rookie of the Year credentials, has a .330 batting average, .377 on base percentage, and .585 slugging percentage over the past 30 days, though he's struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. His 23 RBI over the period tie him for third in the league. Starlin Castro, who has emerged as the team's top second baseman, has put up even better numbers, .386/.413/.643, albeit in more limited play. Corner outfielder Chris Coghlan (aka the guy whose takeout slide seriously injured the Pirates' Rookie of the Year contender and best second-half player, Jung Ho Kang) has a .375 on base percentage over the past 30 days, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo's is .361. 

Who's Not? Tomorrow afternoon's starter, Jason Hammel, may be pitching himself into the Cubs' bullpen during the postseason; he has a 6.20 ERA over the past 30 days and hasn't allowed fewer than three runs in a start in over a month. Rookie shortstop Addison Russell flashes impressive leather but is hitting just .181 with a .258 on base percentage over the past 30 days, and rookie left fielder Kyle Schwarber has a .176 batting average and .291 on base percentage over the same period. Schwarber's whiffed in nearly a third of his plate appearances, Russell almost 37% of his. 

What's the Outlook? The last Cubs series was a disaster for the Pirates, losing three straight after winning the first game, culminated by the season-ending (and, very possibly, 2016 season-delaying) injury to Kang. And those games were in Pittsburgh. Now they travel to Chicago after playing yesterday afternoon in the Mountain time zone (the Cubs had the day off) for two afternoon games followed by a Sunday night game. The latter game means they'll be wrapping up their Sunday six hours later than the Cardinals, who'll be at PNC for three do-or-die games starting Monday. So there are all sorts of ways for the Pirates' internal clocks to get messed up, relative to those of the Cubs and Cardinals. Plus, we'll find out, as some have posited, whether four games in the altitude of Coors Field screws up hitters' swings and timing. (One guy whose swing probably won't be affected: Andrew McCutchen has hardly had a chance to swing, having walked 13 times in his last 21 plate appearances.) Taking two of three in Chicago--a necessity if the Pirates are going to have a shot at catching the Cardinals and getting reasonable distance between themselves and the Cubs in the battle for home field advantage in the wild card game--strikes me as a tall order.

Losing Your Best Player

I touched on this earlier this week. I think that if you'd ask most Pirates fans to name the team's most valuable players, the list would start with Andrew McCutchen, followed by Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli, then maybe Neil Walker before shortstop/third baseman Jung Ho Kang. Here are the team's hitters (minimum 50 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star break:

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jung Ho Kang	54	197	33	61	14	0	11	29	0	2	10	48	.310	.364	.548	.913
Andrew McCutchen	55	202	38	61	9	1	10	37	4	2	34	58	.302	.405	.505	.910
Mike Morse	31	47	5	15	3	1	1	4	0	0	6	12	.319	.407	.489	.897
Pedro Alvarez	54	146	21	38	4	0	12	30	1	0	17	54	.260	.339	.534	.874
Francisco Cervelli	48	161	20	49	6	3	2	9	0	0	22	30	.304	.392	.416	.809
Gregory Polanco	55	233	35	66	14	3	6	23	9	3	17	46	.283	.332	.446	.778
Neil Walker	56	186	23	47	9	3	6	27	0	0	18	29	.253	.315	.430	.745
Starling Marte	55	199	31	56	11	2	3	20	11	3	5	31	.281	.330	.402	.732
Sean Rodriguez	51	87	13	25	6	0	1	7	0	2	2	25	.287	.333	.391	.724
Aramis Ramirez	43	154	14	39	10	0	5	28	0	0	10	17	.253	.299	.416	.715
Travis Ishikawa	28	48	4	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	4	16	.250	.308	.354	.662
Josh Harrison	24	68	10	17	3	0	0	3	1	3	5	13	.250	.320	.294	.614
Chris Stewart	25	56	1	14	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	13	.250	.271	.250	.521
Jordy Mercer	23	68	4	14	2	0	0	6	0	1	7	16	.206	.276	.235	.512

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/18/2015.

McCutchen's had a big second half, vaulting himself into the MVP discussion. But Kang's been better. He's hit more doubles and more homers in fewer plate appearances. When you combine that with the fact that he plays an adequate shortstop, and McCutchen plays an adequate center field, the defensive importance of shortstop over center field makes Kang, in my book, the team's best player over the second half of the year.

Until yesterday. In the first inning of yesterday afternoon's game against the Cubs, Cub right fielder Chris Coghlan slid hard into Kang, outside of the basepath, in an unsuccessful attempt to break up a double play. What resulted was one of the worst knee injuries in recent memory: torn medial collateral ligament and broken tibial plateau. He won't be playing with the Pirates until next season, probably not until after the season starts.

This is a big blow for the Pirates. As shown above, Kang was the team's best hitter in the second half. OK, let's say he and McCutchen were the two best. With Kang out of the lineup, Jordy Mercer will become the full-time shortstop, backed up by Pedro Florimon. Mercer's .594 OPS this season is the second-worst in the league among the 106 players with at least 350 plate appearances. Mercer was out for a month starting just after the All-Star break, injured by a take-out slide in Milwaukee. He was having a miserable season at the bat up to that point, with a .242 batting average, .289 on base percentage, and .315 slugging percentage at the time of the injury. Since coming back, he's been worse: .239/.289/.304. And that's been way better than Florimon, who in limited play has amassed a single and a triple in 22 at bats (that's a .091 batting average and .182 slugging percentage) and two walks (a .167 on base percentage).

So how big a blow is it? It's easy to overstate the impact of a star player. The Pirates have only 16 games left in the season. Statistically, on paper, Kang would be worth maybe one game over that stretch. That's borne out by the record: The Pirates are 63-40 in games that Kang started, and 24-19 when he didn't. The difference in winning percentage (.612 - .558 = .054), multiplied by 16 remaining games, equals a win. So if the Pirates finish a game behind the Cardinals or Cubs, it won't be a stretch to blame it on Coghlan's slide. Once we get into the postseason, any one-run loss might've been reversed with Kang's booming bat rather than Mercer's, um, less-than-booming one.

As for Coghlan's slide, it seems like it was legal to me. But that doesn't mean I like it. One of the appeals of baseball to me is that it isn't a contact sport. I mean, there's inevitably some contact, like a fielder slapping a tag on a runner attempting to steal, but the game isn't designed to be one of athletes crashing into one another. Sliding into second base on a double play makes sense; if the baserunner doesn't slide, he may catch a baseball on his forehead. If that causes the second baseman or shortstop to miss on his throw to first, all the better. But sliding outside of the basepath, aiming for the fielder, in an attempt to disrupt the throw? I don't see why that should be legal. Baseball made it illegal for catchers to block home plate and for baserunners to crash into the catcher. I'd like to see the same demise for the takeout slide. Baserunners sliding outside of the basepath at the fielder should be ejected, and the attempted double play should be automatically completed.