Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Wild Card Round

We'll do this one playoff round at a time. As Gregg Easterbrook would say (before he signed with the NY Times and became much more boring), All Predictions Wrong or Your Money Back.

American League Wild Card Game: Astros at Yankees. It's pretty ridiculous to try to predict the result of a short series. Say there are two teams, A, and B. They play 100 games against each other. A wins 60, B wins 40. In terms of won-lost percentage, that's roughly the Pirates playing the Braves. If you do the math, you'll see that the inferior team take a seven-game series 29% of the time. It'll win a best-of-five series 32% of the time. And, of course, it'll win one game 40% of the time. For closely-matched teams, the difference is negligible. And that's over five or seven games. The fewer games, the greater the variance. A one-game play-in? That's why Joe Sheehan calls the wild card the "coin flip game."

Anyway, the American League Wild Card game will have the Yankees hosting the Astros. Neither have exactly covered themselves in glory of late, as the Yankees lost six of their last seven games, going 10-16 since September 7. The Astros are 13-17 since the end of August. Both teams were in first place, the Astros as recently as September 14 and the Yankees on August 24, before losing their leads. But, as Rob Neyer recently pointed out, there is little evidence that performance at the end of the year has a bearing on postseason performance, and I found the same last year. So let's look at Tuesday's game without the baggage of recent play.

When you consider a postseason series, you evaluate each team's pitching, hitting, and defense as a whole. In a one-game play-in, though, one player--the starting pitcher--plays an outsized role. Last year, the Giants eliminated the Pirates because Giants starter Madison Bumgarner had a very good game (four hit, ten strikeout complete game shutout) and Pirates starter Edinson Volquez didn't (five runs allowed in five innings). That's not always the case--last year's crazy Royals-Athletics wild card game came down to bullpens and baserunning--but in one game, one starting pitcher can dictate the outcome.

The Yankees will go with Masahiro Tanaka. He got lit up (six runs in five innings) in his one career start against the Astros, on June 27 against in Houston, but you can't draw any conclusions from one start. He has the lowest ERA in the team's rotation (3.51; rookie Luis Severino's is 2.89 only 62 innings). He had a 3.22 ERA in April, was shut down in May, 4.35 in June, 3.67 in July, 3.18 in August, and 3.06 in September, during which he sandwiched three very strong starts (21 strikeouts, one walk, 15 hits in 21 innings, 1.29 ERA) around two bad ones (eight strikeouts, two walks, 11 hits in 11.1 innings, 6.35 ERA). One worrisome trait: He allowed 1.46 home runs per nine innings, the fourth highest rate in the league for pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched, which isn't ideal against an Astros team that hit 230 home runs this year, second only to the Blue Jays' 232.

The Astros are going to start Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel had a fantastic season. He led the American League in wins (20), WHIP (1.017), innings (232), and ERA adjusted for home park (62% better than average). He was second in ERA (2.48), home runs per nine innings (0.7), and hits allowed per nine innings (7.2). He was fifth in strikeout/walk ratio, tied for fifth in strikeout (216), and tenth in strikeouts per nine innings (8.4). He'll probably win the Cy Young Award, and if he doesn't, he'll almost certainly finish second. On paper, Tanaka can't compare to him. But there are two problems with Keuchel against the Yankees:

• He had a crazy home/road split: 15-0, 1.46 ERA, .474 OPS allowed at home; 5-8, 3.77 ERA, .698 OPS allowed on the road. He'll be pitching on the road. (In fairness, his one start this year at Yankee Stadium was fantastic: seven innings, three hits, no walks, no runs, nine strikeouts.)
• He pitched six innings, throwing 99 pitches in Friday's 21-5 Houston victory over Arizona. That means he'll start Tuesday's game on three days rest. He's never done that as a starter. This article, by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan, explains that the history of starters pitching on short rest in the postseason is not good.

If Keuchel falters, Houston's game will be in the hands of its relievers. The Astros have a better bullpen ERA, but that's misleading. New York has two of the best relievers in baseball, Dellin Betances (1.50 ERA, struck out 39% of the batters he faced) and Andrew Miller (1.90 ERA, struck out 41% of the batters he faced). In a close game, those two, and perhaps former Pirate Justin Wilson (3.10 ERA) are all that opponents will face. The rest of the bullpen's 4.72 ERA shouldn't be a factor in a close game. The Astros, whose 3.27 bullpen ERA was better than the Yankees' 3.70, have more evenly distributed quality arms but don't have anyone to match the Yankees' top two, arguably top three.

On offense, the teams have similarities. The Yankees were eighth in the league in batting average, the Astros were eleventh. The Yankees were sixth in on base percentage, the Astros were eighth. The Yankees were third in slugging percentage, the Astros were second. The Astros, as noted, were second in the league in home runs, and the Yankees were fourth. They can each draw walks; New York was second in walk rate, Houston fifth. They both like to hit the ball in the air; the Astros and Yankees were 1-2 in fly ball rate and 15-14 in ground ball rate. They had some differences: The Astros led the league in stolen bases with 121 while the Yankees were third to last with 63, and the Astros led the league in strikeout rate while the Yankees were ninth. But overall, the offenses are similar. 

It's worth mentioning that the Astros have the youngest team in the league at the plate (average age, per Baseball Reference, 26.6 years) while the Yankees have the oldest (31.1). But the Yankees have the third-youngest pitching staff (27.4) and the Astros the second-oldest (29.4). I can't see how that's relevant in a one-game play-in, though, unless the game lasts, I don't know, four or five years.

The Yankees finished the year with a 45-36 record at home, the seventh best in the league, and were 42-39 on the road, one of only four American League teams with a winning record on the road. The Astros somewhat famously tied Toronto for the best home record in the league, 53-28, but their road record of 33-48 was second worst in the league and enough, in my view, to make them the underdogs Tuesday night. Keuchel on short rest and the Yankee bullpen are additional reasons to favor the home team.

National League Wild Card Game: Cubs at Pirates. Listen, and understand! Jake Arietta is out there! He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead. 

Trailing 30 - Father's Day

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: The American League East has been knocked, with some justification, for no longer being the powerhouse it was in recent years. But as I write this, every team but Boston has a winning record, and over the past month, three of the teams have the second, third, and fourth best record in the American League over the past month. 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Texas           19- 9     1. Pittsburgh      21- 7

2. Toronto         18- 9     2. St. Louis       18- 9    

3. Tampa Bay       17-11     3. San Francisco   15-14         

4. New York        16-11     4. Miami, Arizona  14-14   

5. Oakland         16-12        Chicago         13-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Detroit          9-17     1. Philadelphia     5-22      

2. Boston          11-18     2. Milwaukee       10-18       

   Chicago         11-18     3. New York        12-16      

4. Houston         13-15        Washington      12-16
5. Los Angeles     14-14     5. Colorado        14-16

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Kipnis, Cle      .374     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .412        

2. Springer, Hou    .360     2. Harper, Was      .369      

3. Butler, TB       .353     3. McCutchen, Pit   .353           

4. Cabrera, Det     .352     4. Tulowitzski, Col .347          

5. Pedroia, Bos     .345     5. Cervelli, Pit    .347       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Valbuena, Hou    .140     1. Galvis, Phi      .165          

2. Castellanos, Det .176     2. Bour, Mia        .182       

   Infante, KC      .176     3. Pagan, SF        .184
4. Miller, Sea      .177     4. Desmond, Was     .188           

5. Drew, NY         .180     5. Utley, Phi       .190      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Kipnis, Cle      .462     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .551           

2. Cabrera, Det     .452     2. Harper, Was      .485          

3. Holt, Bos        .441     3. Cervelli, Pit    .443         

4. Rodriguez, NY    .439     4. Carpenter, SL    .423          

5. Bautista, Tor    .438     5. Votto, Cin       .421      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Pujols, LA       .725     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .753        

2. Trout, LA        .607     2. Frazier, Cin     .735     

3. Cabrera, Det     .591     3. Harper, Was      .726       

4. Bautista, Tor    .586     4. Stanton, Mia     .717       

5. McCann, NY       .579     5. Votto, Cin       .635        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Pujols, LA         13     1. Stanton, Mia       13
2. Donaldson, Tor      8     2. Frazier, Cin       10        

   Machado, Bal        8     3. Arenado, Col        9
   Souza, TB           8        Goldschmidt, Ari    9
5. 2 with              7     5. 2 with              8
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Donaldson, Tor     24     1. Frazier, Cin       23        

   Machado, Bal       24     2. LeMahieu, Col      22     

   Pujols, LA         24     3. Arenado, Col       21
4. Dozier, Min        23     4. 3 with             20
   Gardner, NY        23        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Pujols, LA         27     1. Arenado, Col       33        

2. Fielder, Tex       24     2. Stanton, Mia       24      

3. Vogt, Oak          21     3. Frazier, Cin       23       

4. 4 with             20        Goldschmidt, Ari   23
                             5. 2 with             20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Burns, Oak         11     1. Hamilton, Cin      14            

2. Ramirez, Chi        7     2. Blackmon, Col      11     

3. 4 with              6        Gordon, Mia        11   

                             4. Revere, Phi         8
                             5. 2 with              7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Britton, Bal       10     1. Melancon, Pit      14

2. Perkins, Min        8     2. Casilla, SF        10

   Tolleson, Tex       8     3. Ziegler, Ari        9
4. Clippard, Oak       7     4. 5 with              8

   Gregerson, Hou      7     

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gonzalez, Tex    0.90     1. Martinez, SL     1.06

2. Sale, Chi        1.19     2. Cole, Pit        1.06

3. Price, Det       1.19     3. Kershaw, LA      1.56

4. Gallardo, Tex    1.41     4. Garcia, SL       1.59

5. Archer, TB       1.78     5. Morton, Pit      1.62

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Porcello, Bos    7.50     1. Lohse, Mil       7.59

2. McHugh, Hou      6.43     2. Teheran, Atl     6.97

3. Sabathia, NY     6.39     3. de la Rosa, Ari  6.25

4. Lewis, Tex       5.40     4. Frias, LA        6.17

5. Weaver, LA       5.31     5. Nelson, Mil      6.06

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Sale, Chi        0.64     1. Scherzer, Was    0.66

2. Gray, Oak        0.86     2. deGrom, NY       0.74
3. Buehrle, Tor     0.93     3. Kershaw, LA      0.75

4. Gallardo, Tex    0.94     4. Garcia, SL       0.79
5. Price, Det       0.96     5. Liriano, Pit     0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          75     1. Scherzer, Was      57     

2. Archer, TB         55     2. Liriano, Pit       53

3. Wilson, LA         45     3. Kershaw, LA        49

4. 3 with             41     4. Cole, Pit          44

                             5. Hamels, Phi        41

If The Boss Were Still Alive

Toward the end of February, the Boston Red Sox signed 19-old-Cuban prospect Yoan Mondaca for $31.5 million. Under baseball's borderline-incomprehensible international signing rules, that amount was doubled to $63 million, half to Moncada, and half to Major League Baseball as a "tax" for exceeding Boston's international spending limit. 

Moncada is a highly-regarded prospect, projected to play second or third base, possibly shortstop, with speed and the potential to hit for average and for power. He doesn't seem to fit in with the Red Sox, who have second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed through 2021, newly-signed Pablo Sandoval under contract through 2019 (with a 2020 option), and 22-year old shortstop Xander Bogaerts under team control through 2019. But Moncada's expected to need a year or two in the minors, and a lot can change over two seasons.

The surprise isn't that Moncada got $31.5 million (and that's just a signing bonus; he'll earn a salary above and beyond that) nor that the big-budget Red Sox got him. But a lot of people figured he'd wind up a Yankee. The Yankees, after all, are the richest franchise in baseball, and they enter 2015 with a 31-year-old second baseman who's played the position only 34 games in the majors and batted .220 over the past three seasons, along with a shortstop platoon consisting of a left-handed batter with a .243 career average and a right-handed batter with a .234 career average. Reportedly, they bid $25 million ($50 million with the penalty), with general manager Brian Cashman wanting to go higher but principal owner Hal Steinbrenner balked.

That scenario led, predictably, into many Yankee fans and pundits moaning that if Hal's father, George Steinbrenner, aka The Boss, were still alive, the Yankees would've signed Moncada. Certainly, the elder Steinbrenner had a reputation for not being outbid for free agent talent that could help the Yankees. Of course, his sons, Hal and Hank, haven't exactly been tightwads, as they committed nearly half a billion dollars last winter, signing outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (seven years for $153 million or, optionally, eight for $169 million), catcher Brian McCann (five years for $85 million or six for $100 million), pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (seven years for $155 million with a player opt-out after four years for $88 million), and outfielder Carlos Beltran (three year, $45 million). Still, there's little question that Moncada would be a good fit for the Yankees, nor that the $13 million by which the Red Sox outbid them isn't that large.

I'm still not convinced, though, that George Steinbrenner would've signed him. No question, the man excelled at signing free agents. He also didn't lose key players to free agency, an key reason for the Yankees' success that often gets overlooked. But he wasn't a big fan of young prospects. Moncada's 19, has never played in anything comparable to American baseball leagues, and, as noted above, is probably two years removed from the majors. That's not the type of player the late Steinbrenner coveted. 

Take the first Yankees world championship team under Steinbrenner, the 1977 team. (That's the year Reggie Jackson hit three home runs in the last game of the World Series.) Left fielder Roy White, catcher Thurman Munson, and pitcher Ron Guidry were drafted by the Yankees. Jackson and pitcher Catfish Hunter were signed as free agents. Every other starting position player, every other member of the five-man pitching rotation, the closer and the key setup man--they were all acquired via trade. Some of them were astute deals involving veterans, but many involved prospects. Steinbrenner traded a lot of prospects for established players, filling other needs via free agency.

Want more proof? Look at the greatest Yankee team of recent vintage, the 114-48 1998 squad that swept to a World Championship. Outside of the Core Four of shortstop Derek Jeter, catcher Jorge Posada, starter Andy Pettitte and reliever Mariano Rivera, the team was assembled by trade (first baseman Tino Martinez, second baseman Chuck Knoblauch, third baseman Scott Brosius, left fielder Chad Curtis, right fielder Paul O'Neill) mostly for prospects, and free agency (DHs Darryl Strawberry and Tim Raines; starters David Wells, David Cone, Hideki Irabu and Orlando Hernandez; reliever Mike Stanton). The only home-grown regular, outside of the Core Four, was center fielder Bernie Williams.

Wait, you're saying, that "outside of the Core Four" line is pretty glib. True enough: The Yankees drafted Posada and Pettitte and signed Rivera as an amateur free agent in 1990. They drafted Jeter in 1992. The Boss didn't trade any of them away, so why do I think he had a thing against prospects?

Because he didn't have a chance to trade them away. Steinbrenner was suspended from the Yankees in 1990 for his dealings with outfielder Dave Winfield and reinstated in 1993. During his absence, the Core Four rose through the Yankees farm system; all four arrived in the majors in 1995. And even then, Steinbrenner wanted to trade Rivera for a shortstop who would have blocked Jeter. The man saw prospects more as a means to end, rather than an end.

So would George have spent mid-eight figures for a 19-year-old? It's possible, but I question it. Maybe he'd have more aggressively pursued pitchers Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or James Shields this winter. I think he wouldn't have let second baseman Robinson Cano depart a year ago, creating a hole that Moncada might have been able to fill. (As I said, I think the Yankees' ability to retain its key players is an underappreciated Steinbrenner strength.) But I think there's a decent chance that Yoan Moncada would be a Red Sox farmhand even if The Boss were still alive.

What's Going On With: A.J. Burnett

Phillies starter A.J. Burnett had a bad year in 2014. He took $4.25 million less from the Phillies to sign with the Pirates, with whom he had good years in 2012 and 2013. Can he be reasonably expected to return to that form?

He's had an interesting career. He was drafted by the Mets in 1995 then traded to the Marlins in 1998 for Al Leiter during one of the their hey-we-won-the-World-Series-let's-blow-up-the-team purges following the 1997 season. (Mission accomplished: the team went from 92-70 in 1997 to 54-108 in 1998.) Burnett was a 22-year-old rookie when he got seven starts in 1999. After seven years with the Marlins, he became a free agent and signed a three-year contract with Toronto for $28.6 million after the 2005 season. He went 38-26 with a 3.94 ERA over 80 starts for the Blue Jays and became a free agent again, signing with the Yankees for five years at $16.5 million per year in December 2008. That didn't go so well. He was OK his first year in the Bronx, going 13-9 with a 4.04 ERA in 2009, below the league average of 4.45, and getting a win in the second game of the World Series that year. It spiraled downhill from there, with ERAs of 5.26 in 2010 and 5.15 in 2011. The Yankees gave up on him, sending him and most of the cash needed to pay his salary to Pittsburgh for two minor leaguers who've never appeared in the majors.

In Pittsburgh, he had a renaissance, going 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA in 2012 and 10-11 with a 3.30 ERA in 2013. Going into the 2014 season, when he'd be 37, a lot of folks figured he's re-sign with the Pirates, but the Pirates didn't offer what he wanted, there were stories of hurt feelings, and he signed a contract with Philadelphia that paid him $15 million last year. His contract gave him a $12.75 million option for 2015, but he declined it and instructed his agent to negotiate a deal with the Pirates, saying, "I've got one more [season] in me. There's no other place I'd rather be to finish my career," and "I want to be in a place where I'm really happy...this is where I belong." He signed for $8.5 million, effectively taking a $4.25 million pay cut to go back to Pittsburgh.

Here are the stats for Burnett's past five seasons: Two with the Yankees, two with the Pirates, one with the Phillies.

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	WP	ERA+
2010	33	NYY	10	15	.400	5.26	33	33	186.2	204	118	109	25	78	145	19	16	82
2011	34	NYY	11	11	.500	5.15	33	32	190.1	190	115	109	31	83	173	9	25	83
2012	35	PIT	16	10	.615	3.51	31	31	202.1	189	86	79	18	62	180	9	10	107
2013	36	PIT	10	11	.476	3.30	30	30	191.0	165	79	70	11	67	209	9	12	108
2014	37	PHI	8	18	.308	4.59	34	34	213.2	205	122	109	20	96	190	16	9	81

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/21/2014.

ERA+ measures ERA relative to the league average, adjusted for home park. So Burnett's 108 in 2013 means he was 8% better than average. His 81 in 2014 means he was 19% worse.

The key question for the Pirates and their fans is whether Burnett can return to his 2012-2013 form. Over at Gammons Daily, David Gobiewski wrote a great piece summarizing Burnett's prospects in general. I want to focus on what went right in Pittsburgh and what went wrong in Philadelphia.

I'll start with a table. GB% is the percentage of the balls in play off Burnett that were ground balls. GB/FB is the ratio of ground balls to fly balls. HR%, SO%, and BB% is the percentage of batters who hit home runs, struck out, or walked against him. HR/FB% is the percentage of the fly balls he allowed that went over the fence. The last four columns are pitch mix: FB% is fastballs, SI% is sinkers, CH% is changeups, and CU% is curveballs.

Year	Age	Tm	GB%	GB/FB	HR%	SO%	BB%	HR/FB%	FB%	SI%	CH%	CU%
2010	33	NYY	44.9%	1.20	3.0%	17.5%	9.4%	11.6%	49,5%	19.9%	3.2%	27.4%
2011	34	NYY	49.2%	1.52	3.7%	20.7%	9.9%	17.0%	41.8%	13.9%	11.2%	33.1%
2012	35	PIT	56.9%	2.35	2.1%	21.2%	7.3%	12.7%	24.6%	35.6%	5.7%	34.1%
2013	36	PIT	56.5%	2.33	1.4%	26.1%	8.4%	9.1%	21.8%	36.7%	6.1%	35.4%
2014	37	PHI	50.9%	1.78	2.1%	20.3%	10.3%	11.3%	14.9%	44.5%	7.3%	33.0%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (HR%, SO%, BB%), FanGraphs (GB%, GB/FB, HR/FB%), Brooks Baseball (FB%, SI%, CH%, CU%)

It's pretty clear what happened in 2012 when Burnett came over from the Yankees: The Pirates had him ditch is four-seam fastball in favor of his two-seam sinking fastball. They've done that before. As a result, he went from being a moderate ground ball pitche (21st of 43 ERA qualifiers in GB%, 19th in GB/FB in 2010 with the Yankees) to a ground ball machine (fourth of 46 ERA qualifiers in in both GB% and GB/FB in 2012). With the Phillies, he produced fewer ground balls. 

Additionally, the Pirates have one of the more analytically-oriented front offices, and they shifted their infielders 500 times in 2013, usually moving them to the right of second base when a lefty swinger who tended to pull was at the plate. Shifting helps ground ball pitchers record outs. When Burnett joined the Phillies, he went to a team that shifted only 45 in times to 2013. They bumped that up to 291 in 2014, sixth in the league, but still well below the Pirates. So it's reasonable to think that he lost some ground ball outs when he moved across Pennsylvania.

Plus, the Pirates play in one of the toughest parks in the majors in which to hit home runs. PNC Park depressed home runs by 30% in 2014. The Phillies play in Citizens Bank Park, which boosted homers by 18%.

So that's what happened to Burnett: He generated fewer ground balls, which were hit into an infield that was less well-positioned to field them, in a home park that helped homers.

That doesn't really tell the whole story, though. He relied on his sinker more in Philadelphia than he ever had before, which should have kept his ground ball rate up. Instead, it fell. And while his home run rate rose from 2013 to 2014, it was lower than it was in 2012, when he was good.

I think there were two problems. First, his sinker failed to generate the same results: 13.2% of his sinkers resulted in ground balls in Pittsburgh, and just 9.7% in Philadelphia. As a result, it became easier to hit, as he allowed 29 doubles, three triples, and 11 homers off the pitch in 2014 after allowing 30 doubles, four triples, and 14 homers in 2012 and 2013 combined. 

Second, he had problems with the strike zone. His percentage of pitches in the strike zone fell from 51% in 2012 to 49% in 2013 to 47% in 2014. More importantly, batters stopped chasing his pitches outside the strike zone, as his percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone fell from 29% in 2012 and 31% in 2013 to 27% in 2014. That resulted in a big boost in his walks (he led the league in walks allowed), and more baserunners resulted in more runs scoring.

So I wouldn't expect anything magical from Burnett's return to Pittsburgh. Yes, he'll benefit from being a tougher park in which to hit a home run. And playing with a shifted infield behind him (the Pirates led the league in shifts last year) will take away some of those base hits. But pitching coach Ray Searage's focus won't be on changing the pitches that Burnett throws as much as changing their effectiveness--specifically, throwing more of them in the strike zone and locating them in order to induce more ground balls. Doing that with a pitcher who turns 38 in January won't be easy. I expect an improvement but not a return to Burnett's 2012-13 heyday. 

Free Advice for Brian Cashman - UPDATED

UPDATE: Dammit, it won't work. This whole idea is predicated on the idea that by shipping Rodriguez and cash to another club, the Yankees can avoid the baseball "luxury tax" on Rodriguez's salary. I double-checked baseball's Collective Bargaining Agreement, and here's what it says about "cash consideration:"

Cash Consideration: An assignor Club that pays cash consideration in lieu of assigning an unnamed player or to defray all or part of the salary obligation of the assignee Club for an assigned Player shall include such cash consideration in its Actual Club Payroll in the Contract Year for which the cash consideration is paid; provided, however, that any such cash consideration included as part of a Player assignment made during the 2016 Contract Year but not payable until the 2017 Contract Year shall be included in the assignor Club's 2016 Actual Club Payroll to the extent that the assignee Club does not have equivalent salary obligations under Player contracts obtained in the assignment in the 2017 championship season or beyond. Any cash consideration that is, pursuant to the previous sentence, included in the Actual Club Payroll of the payor Club shall be subtracted from the Actual Club Payroll of the payee club in the same Contract Year in which it is added to the payor Club's Actual Club Payroll.

Let's hack through that a bit. Substituting Yankees for assignor Club, another team for assignee Club, and Alex Rodriguez for an assigned Player and getting read of extraneous words and silly capitalizations, you get:

If the Yankees pay cash consideration to defray all or part of another club's salary obligation for Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees shall include such cash consideration in its payroll in the year in which the cash consideration is paid.

So if the Yankees, as I suggested, trade the Marlins Rodriguez and $64 million for a twentysomething position player and an Amazon gift card, they'll have to pay a luxury tax on the $64 million. No escaping it.

Sorry to get your hopes up, Brian.

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I'm serious about this.

The Yankees can and should trade Alex Rodriguez.

I figured this out while reading this post by Rob Neyer, in which he argues that Rodriguez will not play in a regular season game for the Yankees again. I had a hard time squaring that with this analysis of mine, in which I argued that his contract, guaranteeing him $61 million over the next three years, makes him un-tradeable. 

What makes Rodriguez particularly onerous for the Yankees, I pointed out, is baseball's "luxury tax." Teams with a payroll in excess of $189 million must pay the league 17.5% of the amount by which they exceed $189 million in the first year they're over that level. In the second consecutive year, it rises to 30%. In the third consecutive year, it rises to 40%. In the fourth and all subsequent consecutive years, it's 50%. (I keep saying consecutive because it resets if a team's payroll drops below $189 million for a season.) The Yankees are at the 50% level, having exceeded the luxury tax threshold since time immemorial. 

Rodriguez's contract pays him $21 million in 2015, $20 million in 2016, and $20 million in 2017. Assuming the Yankees' payroll stays above $189 million--a pretty safe assumption given that is was an estimated $258 million in 2014 without Rodriguez--they'll have to pay a 50% luxury tax on the $27.5 million average annual value of ten-year deal he signed after the 2007 season. (I mistakenly got that amount wrong in my post Tuesday. I've corrected it.) Last year, when Rodriguez was suspended, the Yankees withheld all of the $25 million due him but approximately $2.9 million. This year, they'll pay him not only the $21 million he's owed (along with, in all likelihood, a $6 million bonus for tying Willie Mays's career home run total of 660) but also $13.75 million ($27.5 million x 50%) in luxury tax. 

That's a lot of money for anyone, particularly a third baseman who turns 40 next year, missed all of last season, and played an average of 88 games per year in the three seasons before that, compiling an OK-but-not-great .269 batting average, .356 on base percentage, and .441 slugging percentage. That's basically Padres outfielder Seth Smith (.266/.367/.440). Seth Smith will earn $6 million in 2015. Alex Rodriguez, between his salary, likely bonus, and luxury tax, will cost the Yankees $40.75 million.

The salary's the injury, the luxury tax the insult. But the luxury tax doesn't hit all teams, of course. Last year, only the Dodgers and Yankees were above the $189 million payroll threshold, and only the Phillies, Tigers and Giants were within $50 million of it. The luxury tax is a non-issue for most teams.

So here's my idea: Trade Rodriguez and a ton of cash to a lower-payroll team. By a ton of cash, I'm thinking $64 million, which would be enough to cover all but $1 million per year of his $61 million salary and the $6 million Willie Mays bonus. (Rodriguez will also get $6 million bonuses for home run No. 714 tying Babe Ruth, 755 tying Hank Aaron, 762 tying Barry Bonds, and 763 passing Bonds, though those all seem a stretch, given that the last time he hit even 19 in a season was 2010.) In return, the Yankees could get, I don't know, a position player under the age of 30 and an Amazon gift card? It wouldn't have to be much. Sending Rodriguez and a big check would cost the Yankees, obviously, that big check, but it would save them $13.75 million in luxury tax payment in each of the next three years. That's $41.25 million, almost enough to cover the $45 million they still owe first baseman Mark Teixeira!

The question is who'd take Rodriguez. He's not exactly what you'd call a fan favorite. Playing him every day at third base probably lands him on the disabled list more than you'd like, so that rules out teams like the Phillies and Padres that got limited production from their third basemen. First base? That's been a perennial problem in Milwaukee, but they already have Ryan Braun, which probably puts them at the roster limit for players with long drug suspensions who get booed everywhere. Houston and Minnesota got minimal first base production, but they're committed to youth. The A's Brandon Moss had a down year but he's cheap and nine years younger than Rodriguez. Rodriguez is best suited for DH, but it's hard to see him with a team like Kansas City, which didn't get much production yet seems to be leaning toward re-signing free agent Billy Butler.

So I think the most logical finalists are:

• Mariners: DHs hit .190 last year, primary first baseman Logan Morrison can play the outfield.
• Pirates: Their problems at first base rival those of the Brewers; Pirate 1Bs hit .226 the past season.
• Rays: Tampa Bay DHs hit .229 in 2014 and the team is a little bit of the Oakland Raiders of baseball, willing to take on controversial players.
• Tigers: They have a huge hole at DH if they can't re-sign Victor Martinez.

But I'm going to pick none of them. Instead, I think the Yankees should send Alex Rodriguez and $64 million to the Miami Marlins. Here's why:

1. Mariners owner Jeffrey Loria really doesn't care what you, or anybody else, thinks.
2. Rodriguez is from the Miami area and if he has any kind of fan base, it's in south Florida. He paid for a $3.9 million renovation to the University of Miami's baseball stadium, now called Alex Rodriguez Park. 
3. The Marlins were last in the National League in attendance. If I'm right about Rodriguez drawing some fans to Miami, that's good. If I'm not, it's not like they have a lot to lose.
4. Miami's incumbent first baseman, Garrett Jones, is signed to a relatively cheap contract ($5 million in 2015) but he'll be 34 next June, he's hit just .240/.300/.415 with 30 homers over the past two seasons combined, and he's pretty useless against left-handed pitching (.197 lifetime average), so Rodriguez could either replace him or be a right-handed platoon partner/pinch hitter/DH in American League parks/sometime third baseman.

There's one potential problem here. Baseball's Commissioner can review and veto trades for cash. That famously happened in 1976, when A's owner Charlie Finley traded three stars for $3.5 million (pitcher Vida Blue to the Yankees for $1.5 million and outfielder Joe Rudi and reliever Rollie Fingers to the Red Sox for $1 million each) and Commissioner Bowie Kuhn disallowed the trade. I don't recall any trade reversals since, but a deal such as this would draw a lot of scrutiny, as it would be a pretty transparent attempt by the Yankees to evade the luxury tax. But would new commissioner Rob Manfredi be willing to draw the ire of the league's most marketable franchise? I'm not saying he wouldn't--after seeing the Yankees get out of paying all but $2.9 million of Rodriguez's $25 million salary last year, a lot of teams would be legitimately steamed by a move like this--but it's not at all clear.

So go for it. Rodriguez and cash to the Marlins. Do it, Brian.