Next Up: The Washington Nationals

The Pirates will hope for improvement over their first series against the Nationals in mid-June, in which they were, well, annihilated. They lost three games in Washington by the aggregate score of 19-3 and were outhit 34-14, including Max Scherzer's near-perfect no-hitter. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Nationals are 14-9 over the last 30 days, the second-best record in the National League. They've scored 3.5 runs per game, the sixth fewest in the league, and allowed 2.9 per game, the second fewest. A 14-9 record is about what you'd expect from a team with that run differential. They've opened up a three game lead over the Mets in the National League East, though their overall record of 51-42 is the poorest of any division leader, and is 2.5 games worse than the Pirates' 54-40.

What's Going Right? The Nationals' starters have a 2.96 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth best in the league. They've been by far the stingiest starters at issuing walks, just 3.5% of batters faced (the league average is more than twice as high), and although they've allowed a lot of fly balls (38% of balls put in play, second highest in the league), 11% of them have been infield flies (fourth most) and only 8% have gone over the fence (fourth fewest). They're No. 1 at pitching in the strike zone and No. 2 at inducing swings outside the zone. The relievers have followed a similar pattern over the past 30 days: Fourth-lowest ERA at 2.56, second lowest walk rate, third highest percentage of fly balls staying in the infield, fourth highest percentage of pitches in the zone, and third highest rate of swings outside the strike zone.

Who's Hot? You've probably heard this before, but right fielder Bryce Harper is having a great year. Over the last 30 days, though he's cooled off a bit, he's still been the team's best hitter, with a .294/.435/.529 slash line and three homers. Clint Robinson, pressed into action by injuries to left fielder Jayson Werth and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, has a solid .369 on base percentage over the past 30 days. 

The Pirates will face Doug Fister, who has a 3.38 ERA over the past 30 days, tonight, then the same three pitchers they faced in June: Scherzer (3.03 ERA, one walk and 28 hits over his last 35.2 innings), Gio Gonazlez (1.89 ERA in three starts over the last 30 days), and Joe Ross who's posted 2.70 in four starts for the Nationals as he's split time between Washington, AA Harrisburg, and AAA Syracuse. Closer Drew Storen's had a hot hand, with a 0.87 ERA and nine saves over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? You've probably heard this before, but shortstop Ian Desmond is having a terrible year. Over the last 30 days, he has a .181/.238/.333 slash line. (The league average is .253/.315/.397.) Rookie Michael Taylor, pressed into action action by injury to center fielder Denard Span, has been barely better: .230/.264/.310. \

It's hard to find a Nationals pitcher who hasn't been at least average, but over the last 30 days, Tanner Roark has had a 7.71 ERA in five relief appearances and, in one start, allowed eight runs in 3.1 innings.

What's the Outlook? The Nationals, while pretty clearly the class of their division, continue to underperform, hurt by injuries to Werth, Zimmerman, Span, starter Stephen Strasburg, and third baseman Anthony Rendon. When everybody's healthy, they're a formidable club. But not everybody's healthy. This is a chance for the Pirates to get back on the winning track, having started play after the All-Star break 1-5, in front of the home fans at PNC Park.

Trailing 30 - June 28

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: We're close enough to the end June to predict Players of the Month. American League: I'd vote for Miguel Cabrera but I expect Albert Pujols will win. Among the pitchers, there's a case to be made for Chris Sale, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Archer, with a nod to the latter for the surprisingly good performance of the Rays. In the National League, looks as if Nolan Arenado is well-positioned to win the top player award (I'd go with Giancarlo Stanton or Paul Goldschmidt) while Max Scherzer seems the choice for top pitcher.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Toronto         18- 9     1. St. Louis       19- 8

2. Tampa Bay       18-10     2. Pittsburgh      17-10    

3. Baltimore       17-10     3. Cincinnati      15-11         

4. Kansas City     15-10     4. Chicago         14-13   

5. NY, Oak         16-11     5. Arizona, SD     14-14        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Boston          11-17     1. Philadelphia     7-19      

   Seattle         11-17     2. New York        11-16       

3. Detroit         10-15     3. Atlanta         12-16      

4. Chicago         11-16        Milwaukee       12-16
5. Minnesota       12-16     5. San Francisco   12-15

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Cabrera, Det     .402     1. Tulowitzki, Col  .394        

2. Pillar, Tor      .379     2. Goldschidt, Ari  .388      

3. Kipnis, Cle      .363     3. Harper, Was      .359           

4. Machado, Bal     .351     4. Turner, LA       .352          

5. Burns, Oak       .339     5. Heyward, SL      .348       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Sanchez, Chi     .165     1. Desmond, Was     .160          

2. Garcia, Chi      .170     2. Galvis, Phi      .169       

3. Rios, KC         .181     3. Ramirez, Mil     .178
4. Ramirez, Chi     .190     4. Norris, SD       .178           

5. Napoli, Bos      .190     5. Duda, NY         .183      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Cabrera, Det     .500     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .512           

2. Kipnis, Cle      .450     2. Harper, Was      .457          

3. Gordon, KC       .433     3. Tulowitzki, Col  .447         

4. Bautista, Tor    .426     4. Coghlin, Chi     .434          

5. Fielder, Tex     .426     5. Votto, Cin       .427      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Pujols, LA       .786     1. Stanton, Mia     .784        

2. JD Martinez, Det .681     2. Arenado, Col     .705     

3. Trout, LA        .653     3. Goldschmidt, Ari .704       

4. Cabrera, Det     .621     4. Frazier, Cin     .701       

5. Machado, Bal     .605     5. Harper, Was      .667        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Pujols, LA         14     1. Stanton, Mia       14
2. JD Martinez, Det   10     2. Arenado, Col       12        

3. Valbuena, Hou       9     3. Frazier, Cin       10
4. 3 with              8     4. 3 with              9
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Gardner, NY        27     1. Arenado, Col       24        

2. Pujols, LA         25        Frazier, Cin       24     

3. Machado, Bal       22     3. LeMahieu, Col      21
4. Bautista, Tor      21     4. 5 with             20
   Zobrist, Oak       21        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Pujols, LA         28     1. Arenado, Col       35        

2. JD Martinez, Det   24     2. Posey, SF          26      

3. Machado, Bal       21     3. Stanton, Mia       25       

4. 3 with             20     4. Frazier, Cin       24
                                Goldschmidt, Ari   24
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Burns, Oak          8     1. Hamilton, Cin      18            

2. Reyes, Tor          7     2. Blackmon, Col      11     

3. 4 with              6     3. Revere, Phi         9   

                             4. Marte, Pit          8
                             5. 2 with              7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Britton, Bal        9     1. Melancon, Pit      12

   Holland, KC         9     2. Rosentha, SL        9

3. Clippard, Oak       8        Ziegler, Ari        9
4. Boxberger, TB       7     4. Chapman, Cin        8

   Perkins, Min        7        Ramos, Mia          8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gallardo, Tex    0.69     1. Garcia, SL       1.03

2. Price, Det       1.45     2. deGrom, NY       1.21

3. Archer, TB       1.80     3. Martinez, SL     1.85

4. Walker, Sea      1.91     4. Hammel, Chi      2.01

5. Sale, Chi        1.98     5. Ray, Ari         2.08

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Martinez, Tex    6.35     1. Lohse, Mil       7.56

2. Elias, Sea       6.21     2. Harang, Phi      6.56

3. Weaver, LA       6.12     3. Cashner, SD      6.55

4. McHugh, Hou      5.00     4. O'Sullivan, Phi  6.00

5. Samardzija, Chi  5.94     5. Hellickson, Ari  5.45

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Sale, Chi        0.80     1. Scherzer, Was    0.62

2. Walker, Sea      0.87     2. deGrom, NY       0.67
3. Archer, TB       0.89     3. Garcia, SL       0.69

4. Buerhle, Tor     0.91     4. Liriano, Pit     0.84
5. Gallardo, Tex    0.92     5. Kershaw, LA      0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          63     1. Kershaw, LA        57     

2. Keuchel, Hou       46     2. Bumgarner, SF      47

3. Walker, Sea        44     3. Scherzer, Was      45

4. Archer, TB         41     4. Liriano, Pit       44

   McCullers, Hou     41     5. Arrieta, Chi       41

Next Up: The Washington Nationals

On Wednesday, I mentioned that the Pirates' 30-inning stretch of no runs allowed was tied for the fifth longest in club history. It reached 35 innings that evening, tying for the third-longest in club history. (Historical footnote: I used a data source that goes back to 1914. According the Travis Sawchik, the longest streak in club history, 51 innings, was in 1903.) 

Anyway, after running up their winning streak to eight games against three of the worst teams in baseball--the Brewers (second-worst record), Phillies (worst record), and White Sox (seventh-worst)--they travel to the nation's capital to play three against a team with a winning record, the enigmatic Washington Nationals.

How Are They Doing Lately? I say enigmatic because the Nats were pretty much unanimous picks to win the National League East and were considered to be one of the best teams in baseball. I considered their prospects to finish first as one of the "five locks in baseball." (I'm currently two-for-five on my locks: The Dodgers are in first, and the Phillies are in last.) Instead, the Nationals enter the series against the hottest team in baseball (the Pirates' 21-6 record since May 20 is the best in baseball) just 34-33, a game and a half behind the Mets in the National League East, and just 11-16 over the last 30 days, the third-worst record in the league. The Nationals have scored runs (second in the league in runs per game, 4.4) but given up too many (4.3 per game, seventh most), betrayed by a terrible defense (turning 66% of balls in play into outs, the lowest percentage in the league). One of their marquee players, pitcher Stephen Strasburg, is on the disabled list with a 6.55 ERA. The other big star, 22-year-old Bryce Harper, is having an MVP-caliber season (third in batting average, first in on base percentage, first in slugging percentage, second in homers, first in home run frequency, fifth in runs scored, third in runs batted in, first in walks), strained his hamstring yesterday night and is day-to-day. Their shortstop, Ian Desmond, the National League's Sliver Slugger (awarded for offensive performance) in each of the past three seasons, is batting .224/.269/.346 (his career averages entering the season were .270/.317/.431) and he leads all National League fielders in errors with 15. Another star, left fielder Jayson Werth, is out until at least early August with a broken wrist. First baseman Ryan Zimmerman is disabled with plantar fasciitis. If you've ever had plantar fasciitis, you know that it's tough to guess how long he'll be out.

What's Going Right? The Nationals haven't been notably good at anything over the past 30 days. They're twelfth in the league in batting average, eleventh in on base percentage, and tenth in slugging percentage.  The starting pitchers' 4.20 ERA is exactly in the middle of the league, and the relievers' 4.21 ERA is third worst. How's this: Their pitchers have walked only 6% of the batters they've faced over the last 30 days, the second-lowest percentage in the league after the Pirates. There's that.

What's Going Wrong? Just as the Nationals haven't done anything particularly well of late, they haven't been really bad at anything, either. They're middle of the pack in home runs with 26 over the past 30 days, but Harper accounts for seven of them, so without him they've been short on power.

Who's Hot? Well, Harper, but he may not play in the series. Other than Harper (who, incidentally, earlier this month faced a pitcher younger than he for the first time in his entire professional career, including rehab stints at the A and AA levels in each of the past two seasons), the best Nationals hitter over the last 30 days has been third baseman Yunel Escobar, (who's been playing third largely because last year's third baseman, Anthony Rendon, has been hurt and ineffective), with a .326/.375/.421 slash line. Catcher Wilson Ramos has five homers over the past 30 days but little else (.182 batting average). On the mound, the winter's big free agent signing, Max Scherzer (seven years, $210 million), has a 2.21 ERA over the past 30 days with 47 strikeouts and just 24 hits and six walks in 36.2 innings. In his last start (Sunday against the Brewers) he pitched a complete-game one-hit, one-walk shutout, striking out 16 (thereby wisely limiting his fielders to eleven outs). Closer Drew Storen has a lackluster 4.15 ERA over the past 30 days but has pitched better than that'd indicate (14 strikeouts and one walk in 8.2 innings).

Who's Not? As mentioned, Rendon has been bad (.222/.328/.296 over the past 30 days), as has Ramos when he's not hitting home runs. Desmond's slash line over the last 30 days is worse, .194/.224/.311, and Zimmerman was worse still before he went on the DL. Rookie Michael Taylor, rated the No. 32 prospect by Baseball America before the season (and more than a year and a half older than Harper), has hit .216/.280/.311 filling in for Werth. 

What's the Outlook? The Nationals are going through a rough patch, but there are a lot of talented if underperforming players on the team. The lineup without Harper lacks a big bat, but the pitching is solid. Not to nitpick about an eight-game winning streak, but the Pirates scored more then three runs only twice during the streak, against some of the worst teams in the majors. They'll face Joe Ross (1-1, 3.46 ERA over the past 30 days), Scherzer, and Gio Gonazlez (1-2, 4.61) over the weekend. Look for more low scores.

Trailing 30 - May 31

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: This is one of those dates when the stats for the trailing 30 days equals the past month. So let's guess the winners of the May awards: Jason Kipnis or Prince Fielder for AL player of the month (I'd vote for Kipnis, Fielder will probably win), Bryce Harper the obvious NL pick, maybe Corey Kluber for AL pitcher of the month, Max Scherzer for NL pitcher. 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Minnesota        18-7     1. San Francisco    21-8       

2. Texas           18-11     2. Washington       18-8        

3. Cleveland       16-12     3. St. Louis       17-11         

   Houston         16-12     4. Los Angeles     16-11   

5. Kansas City     14-11     5. Atl, Pit        14-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Oakland         10-19     1. Miami           10-18      

2. Boston          10-18     2. Cincinnati      10-16       

3. Toronto         12-16        Colorado        10-16      

4. Bal, Det, NY, TB 13-15    4. Milwaukee       11-17
                                Philadelphia    11-17

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Kipnis, Cle      .430     1. Harper, Was      .369        

2. Fielder, Tex     .381     2. Cervelli, Pit    .356      

3. Colabello, Tor   .374     3. Goldschmidt, Ari .350           

4. Cruz, Sea        .350     4. Gordon, Mia      .345          

5. Hunter, Min      .337     5. Crawford, SF     .343       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Drew, NY         .143     1. Maldonado, Mil   .148          

2. Valbuena, Hou    .170     2. Kemp, SD         .174       

3. Kiermaier, TB    .172     3. Herrera, Phi     .189
4. Pillar, Tor      .184     4. Stanton, Mia     .192           

5. Miller, Sea      .190     5. Coghlan, Chi     .192      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Kipnis, Cle      .515     1. Harper, Was      .495           

2. Fielder, Tex     .431     2. Goldschmidt, Ari .449          

3. Colabello, Tor   .424     3. Cervelli, Pit    .440         

4. LaRoche, Chi     .421     4. McCutchen, Pit   .421          

5. Cabrera, Det     .419     5. Rizzo, Chi       .412      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Kipnis, Cle      .702     1. Harper, Was      .905        

2. Fielder, Tex     .669     2. Goldschmidt, Ari .720     

3. Donaldson, Tor   .636     3. Belt, SF         .642       

4. Gattis, Hou      .634     4. Frazier, Cin     .639       

5. Cruz, Sea        .612     5. Rizzo, Chi       .630        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Donaldson, Tor      9     1. Harper, Was        13
   Fielder, Tex        9     2. Goldschmidt, Ari    9        

   Gattis, Hou         9        Stanton, Mia        9
4. 3 with              8     4. 5 with              8
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Kipnis, Cle        29     1. Harper, Was        23        

2. Donaldson, Tor     24     2. Belt, SF           22     

3. DeShields, Tex     21     3. 4 with             21
   Dozier, Min        21                             
5. Choo, Tex          20                             

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Fielder, Tex       28     1. Harper, Was        28        

2. Hunter, Min        23     2. Braun, Mil         27      

3. 4 with             22     3. Stanton, Mia       23       

                                J Upton, SF        23
                             5. 3 with             22
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. DeShields, Tex      9     1. Gordon, Mia        12            

2. Burns, Oak          7     2. J Upton, SD         9     

3. 5 with              6     3. Blackmon, Col       8   

                             4. Hamilton, Cin       7
                                Pollock, Ari        7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Perkins, Min       12     1. Storen, Was        11

2. Boxberger, TB       9     2. Casilla, SF         9

   Britton, Bal        9     3. Melancon, Pit       8
   Gregerson, Hou      9     4. Grilli, Atl         7

5. 4 with              7     5. 4 with              6

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gibson, Min      1.36     1. Miller, Atl      0.95

2. Young, KC        1.45     2. Greinke, LA      1.05

3. Gray, Oak        1.67     3. Vogelsong, SF    1.14

4. Karns, TB        1.88     4. Anderson, Ari    1.39

5. Paxton, Sea      1.99     5. Harang, Phi      1.62

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Guthrie, KC      7.46     1. Leake, Cin       6.75

2. Dickey, Tor      6.27     2. Williams, Phi    6.53

3. Sanchez, Det     5.97     3. Colon, NY        6.52

4. Greene, Det      5.83     4. Kennedy, SD      6.40

5. Walker, Sea      5.74     5. Lohse, Mil       5.79

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Ramirez, TB      0.81     1. Miller, Atl      0.68

2. Sale, Chi        0.86     2. Greinke, LA      0.82
3. Young, KC        0.94     3. Hammel, Chi      0.83

4. Hernandez, Sea   0.97     4. deGrom, NY       0.87
5. Shoemaker, LA    0.99     5. Scherzer, Was    0.91

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Kluber, Cle        60     1. Scherzer, Was      56      

2. Sale, Chi          46     2. Shields, SD        47

3. Archer, TB         45     3. Liriano, Pit       45

4. Carrasco, Cle      43     4. Hamels, Phi        44

5. Gray, Oak          41     5, Arrieta, Chi       42

April Oddities

Here, in no particular order, are my view of the five strangest things in baseball's first month. (Full disclusure: I am not trying to imitate Jason Stark's Strange but True column, if for no other reason than that Stark is way more clever than I.)

• The First Place Houston Astros. Five teams finished April with 15 victories. Two, the Cardinals and Tigers, were expected in many circles to win their divisions. Two more, the Mets and Royals, were pegged as wild card contenders. Then there's the Astros. They're viewed as up-and-coming, with a young team (weighted average batter's age 27.3, youngest in the American League) and, according to ESPN Insider Keith Law, the third-best farm system in baseball. But the team was 70-92 last year. The Astros were 51-111 in 2013. They play in the same division as the Angels, who had the best record in baseball last year; the A's, who were a wild card team and had the best run differential in the league; and the Mariners, who were only a game behind the A's and picked by many to win the division this year. Now, granted, the Astros have played the easiest schedule in their division so far, but they have the second-best run differential (1.3 more runs scored than allowed per game) in the league so far. They had the best team ERA, third-best starter ERA, and third-best reliever ERA in the league in April, after finishing 12th, ninth, and fifteenth, respectively, last season. As expected, their batters are striking out a lot (24% of plate appearances, most in the league), and their team batting average of .238 was 12th in the league. But their .316 on base percentage is ninth and their .411 slugging percentage is sixth, so they've made up for the lack of batting average with walks and power. They've probably been a little lucky, and I don't expect them to remain in title contention--this year. But there may be enough here for the team to be a 2016 contender.
• Clayton Kershaw, 1-2, 3.73 ERA. There are 60 National League pitchers who qualify for the ERA title (one inning pitched per team game played). Kershaw is 32nd. I could list some of the unlikely pitchers who rate higher, but really, anybody ahead of Kershaw's a surprise. The defending NL MVP has led the league in ERA for each of the past four years. Now, granted, he had a 4.08 ERA in May 2014, but that included arguably the worst start of his career, when he gave up seven runs in 1.2 innings against Arizona on May 17. The last time before that he'd had an ERA as high as 3.73 was April 2009. So other than the one start last May, this is his worst month in five years. Here's the catch, though: His underlying statistics suggest he was a lot better than his record indicates. His strikeout/walk ratio of 6.1 is seventh in the league and he leads the league in strikeout rate. His fielding independent pitching, which is an ERA-like measure based on strikeouts, walks, and homers (and a better predictor of future performance than ERA), is 2.85, eleventh best in the league. If you normalize that for his unusually high (and possibly bad luck-driven) 22% ratio of home runs to fly balls allowed (fourth highest in the league), it drops to 1.95, which is best in the league. So expect a return to ridiculously good form from Kershaw.
• 10-13 Washington Nationals. They were a near-unanimous pick to win their division. Several saw them as the best team in baseball and the favorite to win the World Series. So seeing them half a game behind the Marlins and Braves, and fully five games behind the Mets, at the end of April is jarring. Like Kershaw's start, the Nationals' problems don't seem likely to persist. They ended April winning three straight, scoring 34 runs. The pitching's been OK but the team was 11th in the league in both batting average and on base percentage in April. Slow starters in April included shortstop Ian Desmond (.217/.287/.326 slash line; the league average including pitchers was .248/.310/.383), left fielder Jayson Werth (.175/.254/.211), and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.217/.277/.380). Starter Max Scherzer had a 1-2 record despite a 1.26 ERA; in two losses and a no-decision his teammates scored a total of six runs. The return of third baseman Anthony Rendon (currently rehabbing a sprained knee) who finished fifth in MVP voting last year, should help, and I'd expect improvement as players return to form and the amazing Bryce Harper (.286/.440/.545, still the second-youngest player in the league) continues his strong performance.
• Mike Moustakas, Batsman. I'm don't get too excited about a month's worth of batting statistics. Anybody can get lucky (or unlucky) for a month. Light-hitting Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon and Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias batting .423 and .370, respectively? Not going to last. Neither will some of the poor performances (see next point). But Moustakas may be different. The third baseman was one of several highly-regarded Royals prospects a few years ago. In four years in the majors, he's been a disappointment. His batting averaged declined every year from 2011 to 2014 (falling from .263 to .212), as did his on base percentage (from .309 to .271). His OPS last year, .632, was the lowest of his career, third lowest in the league among players with 500 or more plate appearances, and 25% below the league average, adjusted for park. Last month, though, he was tenth in the league, at .942, 67% better than average. The reason it doesn't appear to be luck is that Moustakas has overhauled his approach to hitting--not easy to do at age 26. He's been an extreme pull hitter. Batting left, he only 20%-30% of his base hits went to the left side of the field in 2012, 2013, and 2014. As a result, he faced an extreme shift, with three infielders to the right of second base, in 71% of his plate appearances last year. He was easy to predict, easy to defense. But this year, he's got 32 base hits. Of them, thirteen singles, four doubles, and a homer--over 56% of his base hits--have gone to the opposite field. That's a real change, and the five extra-base hits indicate that he's not just popping bloop singles out to left. By using the whole field, he's become a different, and, finally, good hitter.
• Andrew McCutchen, Sub-.200 Hitter. I'm not going to get into this a lot, because I've written about it enough: My concerns about his health here, my analysis of what's wrong with him (mostly, bad luck) here. During April, among 86 National League batting title qualifiers, McCutchen's .194 batting average with 80th, his .302 on base percentage 59th, his .333 slugging percentage 73rd, and his .636 OPS 68th in the league. He had the worst batting average on the Pirates, and the second-worst slugging percentage. Now, hold that for a minute, because I want to talk about fielding. Yesterday, I heard two SiriusXM MLB Home Plate hosts go on and on about how one of the advanced fielding metrics rates Mets center fielder Juan Lagares as slightly below average so far this year, and how this proves that you can't trust some of these new statistics. Look, nobody's going to argue with the idea that Lagares is probably the best center fielder in baseball today. He won the Fielding Bible Award last year and was runner-up the year before. Without getting into the mechanics of how the advanced fielding metrics are calculated (I think they're sound), let's look at what the numbers for Lagares are saying: That he didn't have a fabulous April with the glove. Is that true? I don't know. I didn't watch every play he made, and neither did the folks on the radio. The people who calculate these advanced metrics did. But that's not the point. The point is that the stats are saying Lagares didn't have a great April in the field. So what? Getting back to McCutchen, the stats say that McCutchen didn't have a great April with the bat. Is anybody going to deny that? If a radio host said, "Andrew McCutchen hit .194 in April, therefore he's a bad hitter," we'd call him an idiot. We would also call him an idiot if he said "Andrew McCutchen hit .194 in April, so batting average says he's a bad hitter, which we know if false, so we can't trust batting average." No, no, no. But that's what the guys on satellite radio were saying: if the stats don't say that a great fielder is great every month, the stats are wrong. No, the stats are right, just like McCutchen's slugging percentage is right. But what they measure isn't a player's overall value, it's how they did over a 30 day period. Lagares's defensive numbers in April should be viewed the same way as McCutchen's batting numbers in April: An aberration, unusual but well within normal variation, for an excellent ballplayer. I feel pretty confident in saying that, by season's end, Juan Lagares will be rated as one of the top fielders in baseball, just as I feel pretty confident in saying that, by season's end, Andrew McCutchen will be rated as one of the top hitters in baseball. The fact that the numbers didn't reflect that in April about Lagares doesn't indict the fielding stats any more than McCutchen's .194 indicts batting average.

If The Boss Were Still Alive

Toward the end of February, the Boston Red Sox signed 19-old-Cuban prospect Yoan Mondaca for $31.5 million. Under baseball's borderline-incomprehensible international signing rules, that amount was doubled to $63 million, half to Moncada, and half to Major League Baseball as a "tax" for exceeding Boston's international spending limit. 

Moncada is a highly-regarded prospect, projected to play second or third base, possibly shortstop, with speed and the potential to hit for average and for power. He doesn't seem to fit in with the Red Sox, who have second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed through 2021, newly-signed Pablo Sandoval under contract through 2019 (with a 2020 option), and 22-year old shortstop Xander Bogaerts under team control through 2019. But Moncada's expected to need a year or two in the minors, and a lot can change over two seasons.

The surprise isn't that Moncada got $31.5 million (and that's just a signing bonus; he'll earn a salary above and beyond that) nor that the big-budget Red Sox got him. But a lot of people figured he'd wind up a Yankee. The Yankees, after all, are the richest franchise in baseball, and they enter 2015 with a 31-year-old second baseman who's played the position only 34 games in the majors and batted .220 over the past three seasons, along with a shortstop platoon consisting of a left-handed batter with a .243 career average and a right-handed batter with a .234 career average. Reportedly, they bid $25 million ($50 million with the penalty), with general manager Brian Cashman wanting to go higher but principal owner Hal Steinbrenner balked.

That scenario led, predictably, into many Yankee fans and pundits moaning that if Hal's father, George Steinbrenner, aka The Boss, were still alive, the Yankees would've signed Moncada. Certainly, the elder Steinbrenner had a reputation for not being outbid for free agent talent that could help the Yankees. Of course, his sons, Hal and Hank, haven't exactly been tightwads, as they committed nearly half a billion dollars last winter, signing outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (seven years for $153 million or, optionally, eight for $169 million), catcher Brian McCann (five years for $85 million or six for $100 million), pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (seven years for $155 million with a player opt-out after four years for $88 million), and outfielder Carlos Beltran (three year, $45 million). Still, there's little question that Moncada would be a good fit for the Yankees, nor that the $13 million by which the Red Sox outbid them isn't that large.

I'm still not convinced, though, that George Steinbrenner would've signed him. No question, the man excelled at signing free agents. He also didn't lose key players to free agency, an key reason for the Yankees' success that often gets overlooked. But he wasn't a big fan of young prospects. Moncada's 19, has never played in anything comparable to American baseball leagues, and, as noted above, is probably two years removed from the majors. That's not the type of player the late Steinbrenner coveted. 

Take the first Yankees world championship team under Steinbrenner, the 1977 team. (That's the year Reggie Jackson hit three home runs in the last game of the World Series.) Left fielder Roy White, catcher Thurman Munson, and pitcher Ron Guidry were drafted by the Yankees. Jackson and pitcher Catfish Hunter were signed as free agents. Every other starting position player, every other member of the five-man pitching rotation, the closer and the key setup man--they were all acquired via trade. Some of them were astute deals involving veterans, but many involved prospects. Steinbrenner traded a lot of prospects for established players, filling other needs via free agency.

Want more proof? Look at the greatest Yankee team of recent vintage, the 114-48 1998 squad that swept to a World Championship. Outside of the Core Four of shortstop Derek Jeter, catcher Jorge Posada, starter Andy Pettitte and reliever Mariano Rivera, the team was assembled by trade (first baseman Tino Martinez, second baseman Chuck Knoblauch, third baseman Scott Brosius, left fielder Chad Curtis, right fielder Paul O'Neill) mostly for prospects, and free agency (DHs Darryl Strawberry and Tim Raines; starters David Wells, David Cone, Hideki Irabu and Orlando Hernandez; reliever Mike Stanton). The only home-grown regular, outside of the Core Four, was center fielder Bernie Williams.

Wait, you're saying, that "outside of the Core Four" line is pretty glib. True enough: The Yankees drafted Posada and Pettitte and signed Rivera as an amateur free agent in 1990. They drafted Jeter in 1992. The Boss didn't trade any of them away, so why do I think he had a thing against prospects?

Because he didn't have a chance to trade them away. Steinbrenner was suspended from the Yankees in 1990 for his dealings with outfielder Dave Winfield and reinstated in 1993. During his absence, the Core Four rose through the Yankees farm system; all four arrived in the majors in 1995. And even then, Steinbrenner wanted to trade Rivera for a shortstop who would have blocked Jeter. The man saw prospects more as a means to end, rather than an end.

So would George have spent mid-eight figures for a 19-year-old? It's possible, but I question it. Maybe he'd have more aggressively pursued pitchers Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or James Shields this winter. I think he wouldn't have let second baseman Robinson Cano depart a year ago, creating a hole that Moncada might have been able to fill. (As I said, I think the Yankees' ability to retain its key players is an underappreciated Steinbrenner strength.) But I think there's a decent chance that Yoan Moncada would be a Red Sox farmhand even if The Boss were still alive.

Transactions Explained:What's a Qualifying Offer?

So, what's a Qualifying Offer? It's a one-year contract offer teams can make to their players who have filed for free agency. This year, a qualifying offer is $15.3 million for the 2015 season.

Why would teams offer that much money for one year? Two reasons. First, the best free agents are worth at least that much. Second, and more importantly, if the player rejects the qualifying offer, the team offering it gets compensation, and the team signing the player gets a penalty.

What's the compensation? If a team offers a player a qualifying offer and the player rejects it, the team gets an extra draft pick after the first round of the amateur draft in June. The extra picks are allocated in reverse order of standing during the prior season.

What's the penalty? A team signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer forfeits its first draft choice in the June amateur draft. One exception: The first ten picks in the draft are "protected" and don't get forfeited. Take, for example, third baseman Pablo Sandoval, one of the stars of the Giants' World Series run. He's a free agent. The Giants made him a qualifying offer. Sandoval will reject it, figuring, correctly, that he'll be able to get both more years and more dollars per year than a one-year, $15.3 million deal. If he signs with another team, that team will forfeit its first-round pick, unless it's one of the ten worst teams in baseball last year: the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Twins, Astros, Red Sox, Cubs, Phillies, White Sox, and Reds. Those teams will forfeit their second-highest draft pick instead. (If you're thinking, "That's a windfall for the Red Sox, a high-payroll team likely to pursue big-name free agents, because they won't have to give up their first draft pick," you're right.) If a team signs more than one player who rejected a qualifying offer, it'll give up its next-highest draft pick. 

How onerous is that penalty? It depends on the player. The Mariners didn't think about the penalty when they signed Robinson Cano, the best player in last year's free agent class. Losing a draft pick won't stop a team from pursuing Sandoval, or Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer, or Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez. At the lower end of players receiving qualifying offers, though, relinquishing a draft pick can result in teams being unwilling to sign a player. Last year, former Mariners DH Kendrys Morales and former Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew received and rejected qualifying offers and couldn't find anyone to take them. Drew eventually re-signed with the Red Sox in May (there are not penalties or compensation when a free agent re-signs with his original team), and Morales signed with the Twins on June 8 (after the amateur draft, so there was no penalty). It seems pretty clear that two other players who rejected qualifying offers, former Royals starter Ervin Santana and former Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz, who signed with Atlanta and Baltimore, respectively, had problems getting a contract due to the draft pick they cost their new teams.

Why is there a penalty? Because baseball wants to compensate teams that lose star players to free agency. This isn't a new idea. Prior to the most recent collective bargaining agreement between the owners and the players, which went into effect in 2012, free agents were assigned a letter grade of A, B, or none, and teams losing the free agents received draft pick compensation based on the grade. The calculation of the grades was pretty flawed, though, and the owners and the union decided to go with the qualifying offer system, which is more market-based.

How did they come up with the $15.3 million figure? It's the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. It gets recalculated every year. Last year it was $14.1 million, the year before $13.3 million.

Are there problems with the system? CJ Nitkowski wrote a nice piece describing them. The most glaring are how they screw players at the bottom of the spectrum, like Drew and Morales and Santana and Cruz last year. There's also a huge loophole: Players who are traded during the last year of their contract aren't subject to qualifying offers or compensation. The two most prominent free agent pitchers this year are Detroit's Max Scherzer and Oakland's Jon Lester. Scherzer spent all of last year with the Tigers, so the Tigers made him a qualifying offer. If he signs with another team, the Tigers will get a supplemental draft pick and the team signing him will lose its first pick. Lester was traded from the Red Sox to the A's at the trade deadline, so Oakland couldn't extend him a qualifying offer and won't receive an extra pick if they lose him. The team signing him won't lose its draft pick. Nitkowski describes some other issues as well.

How often do players accept qualifying offers? It hasn't happened yet. Every player who's received a qualifying offer has rejected it since the system was implemented in 2012. That could change this year, based on the experience of Drew and Morales last year. A lot of folks think Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who turns 36 next March and played only 49 games last year due to injuries, may become the first player to accept a qualifying offer.

Who's received qualifying offers? Twelve players: Detroit's Scherzer and DH Victor Martinez, Pittsburgh's catcher Russell Martin and pitcher Francisco Liriano, Kansas City's James Shields, the Yankees' David Robertson, the Blue Jays' Melky Cabrera, the Dodgers' Ramirez, the Giants' Sandoval, the Rockies' Cuddyer, and, for the second year in a row the Orioles' Cruz and the Braves' Santana. 

When do the players have to let the team know? The players who received qualifying offers were notified Monday and they have a week to respond. So by the end of business on Monday, November 10, they have to make a decision.

What happens if they reject the offer? They become free agents, able to sign with any team (subject to the compensation for their former team and penalty for their signing team) described above.

Are the parties happy with the system? Players understandably don't like any system that reduces their value, and attaching a penalty to signing a player reduces their value. Owners like getting compensated for losing players. So that's the impasse, and the qualifying offer system is the latest attempt to bridge it. The examples last year of Drew and Morales, and to a lesser degree Santana and Cruz, illustrate some of the problems of the system, as is the loophole that will enable the team signing Lester to avoid any penalty. Expect these and other issues to be modified the next time the players and owners negotiate their collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs through December 1, 2016.

Flyover: Detroit Tigers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Just before the July 31 trade deadline, the first-place Detroit Tigers completed a three-way trade in which they gave up center fielder Austin Jackson, starting pitcher Drew Smyly, and a minor leaguer for starting pitcher David Price. After the trade, the Tigers had the Cy Young award winners in 2013 (Max Scherzer), 2012 (Price), and 2011 (Justin Verlander) in their rotation, along with Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez, who might be No. 1 starters on other teams. The question was which of those five would go the bullpen when the Tigers waltzed to the postseason.

Since the trade, the Tigers are 19-19, have fallen out of first, two games behind the Royals, and entered today's games trailing the second wild card team, Seattle, by a game and a half. The question isn't their postseason rotation, it's whether they'll make the postseason at all.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, they're 15-15. That's not bad, but the Royals are 18-9. The offense has been pretty good: 5.00 runs per game, third most in the league. But they've given up 5.20 per game, second most. 

What's Going Right? The Tigers are batting .280 (first in the league), with a .338 on base percentage (also first), and a .415 slugging percentage (third) over the past 30 days. They're fourth in home runs with 25, and they've even stolen 21 bases, getting caught just five times. In 2013, the Tigers stole 35 bases all year.

As for the pitchers, as I'll argue in the next section, they've been better than the numbers would indicate. 

What's Going Wrong? Going into the season, the Tigers were viewed as having a good rotation, shaky bullpen. Over the past 30 days, the starters have been shelled, with a 4.89 ERA, worse than every team but the cover-your-eyes-bad Rangers and Twins. The relievers have been average, with a 3.53 ERA compared to a league average of 3.47. So what's been wrong with the starters? Well, it's probably partly bad luck. They've allowed a .345 batting average on balls in play, the highest in the league, and that's usually more indicative of bad luck than bad pitching. They've struck out the third most batters and allowed the third fewest walks, so that's not the problem. In fact, by the measure Fielding-Independent Pitching, or FIP, which calculates ERA based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, the Tigers starters have been second best in the league, not third worst. So what, you ask--well, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is. Painful as this stretch has been, the Tigers starters have really been better than they've seemed. 

Who's Hot? DH Victor Martinez has been scorching over the past 30 days. He's batting .375 (second in the league) with a .481 on base percentage (first) and a .616 slugging percentage (second). He's tied for first in RBI, second in runs, and tied for fifth in homers. In 135 plate appearances, he's walked 22 times and struck out only five times. Equally importantly, defending two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera, who batted just .252 with a single home run in August, is heating up, with four homers so far in September. Left fielder and Comeback of the Year candidate JD Martinez continues his career year, with a .302/.344/.483 slash line over the past 30 days.

Scherzer's the only starter with over 15 innings pitched with an ERA below 4.00 (3.32). Primary middle relievers Blaine Hardy, Phil Coke, and Al Albuquerque have pitched 40.1 innings over 37 games, with a 1.56 ERA.

Who's Not? Sanchez is hurt, and the ERAs for Porcello (4.13), Price (4.31), and Verlander (6.64) are all bad, though again, their component stats suggest they've been better than that. Rookie starter Robbie Ray as lasted only 11.1 inning in three starts and his ERA is legitimately bad, 10.32. Middle reliever Joba Chamberlain's compiled a 5.79 ERA over the past 30 days and closer Joe Nathan continues to make things way too exciting, allowing over two baserunners per inning pitched, including eight walks in 9.1 innings. Center fielder Ezequiel Carrera has been punchless over the last 30 days, with a .239/.271/.326 slash line, as has been shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.238/.297/.298).  

What's the Outlook? It seems to me that the pitchers are going to improve over the remaining games this year. Is it too late? The Tigers have 13 home games and six on the road remaining. The Royals have ten at home and ten on the road. So that's an advantage for Detroit. The Tigers have ten games against weak clubs (seven against Minnesota, three against the White Sox) and the Royals have eleven (four with Boston, seven with Chicago). And the two teams have three games against each other in each team's ballpark. It could come down to that. It's really hard to imagine the Tigers missing the postseason, but it seems that the key may be more catching the Mariners for the second wild card than passing Kansas City. 

Getting Traded

This was a weird moment. The Tigers were playing a game against the White Sox at the trade deadline on Thursday. The Tigers completed a three-way trade with the Mariners and Rays just minutes before the 4 PM EDT deadline, with centerfielder Austin Jackson going to Seattle. The thing is, trades are official as soon as they're announced, and Jackson was, at that moment, playing center for Detroit. So Tigers manager Brad Ausmus had to pull him from the game, replacing him in center with Rajai Davis.

Davis was the Tigers' centerfielder for five seasons. Note that the last player he hugs in the dugout, pitcher Max Scherzer, was traded to the Tigers with Jackson in December 2009 in another Tigers three-way trade, this one involving the Yankees and Diamondbacks.