The Week That Was: American League East

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Traded for: Nobody

Traded away: Nobody

Free agents signed: Nobody

A lot of gnashing of teeth in Charm City.

BOSTON RED SOX

Traded for: SP Rick Porcello, SP Wade Miley

Traded away: OF Yoenis Cespedes, 2B-SS Raymel Flores, P Rubby De La Rosa, SP Gabe Speier, SP Allen Webster, RP Alex Wilson

Free agents signed: SP Justin Masterson

2015 Impact: It seemed the main focus of the Red Sox's past week was their failure to land free agent and former Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester, who signed with the Cubs. However, they added a pretty good pitcher (Porcello achieved career bests in innings, victories, ERA, WHIP, and walk percentage en route to a 3.43 ERA), a decent pitcher (Miley's ERA rose by eight tenths of a run from 3.55 in 2013 to 4.34 in 2014 but his peripherals were steady and he topped 194 innings pitched for the third straight season), and a pitcher who was awful last year (Masterson compiled a 5.88 ERA for two teams) but is due for a good year (Masterson is 26-20 with a 3.32 ERA in odd-numbered years this decade, 24-37 with a 5.08 ERA in even numbered years). Cespedes helps thin out a crowded outfield and he'll be a free agent after next season, so his departure doesn't hurt much. The Red Sox surrendered a lot of young players in these trades but didn't surrender any of their crown jewels (Wilson, 28, isn't actually all that young, but he's pitched only 56 big-league innings, making him the all-time leader in innings pitched for players born in Saudi Arabia.)

2016+ Impact: I don't see this as the typical established-players-for-prospects deal whose value shifts to the prospects as the years go by if the Red Sox can sign Porcello, who's due to become a free agent after the 2015 season, to an extension. If they can't, they won't be left with much, especially if their flyer on Masterson doesn't work. 


NEW YORK YANKEES
Traded for: SS Didi Gregorius
Traded away: SP Shane Greene
Free agents signed: RP Andrew Miller

2015 Impact: Gregorius is in the unenviable position of being The Guy Who Replaced Derek Jeter. Advanced fielding metrics don't see him as a standout fielder, but he'll be an improvement for the Yankees. He was a pretty bad hitter last year (.226/.290/.363 slash line) but that's because the lefty hitter was useless against southpaw pitchers. Against righties, he batted a respectable .247/.304/.402, so if the Yankees platoon him, as GM Brian Cashman has suggested, he could work out OK. Lefty reliever Miller is one of the prize pickups of this year's free agent class, though the track record of left-handed relievers in recent years is pretty frightening, and Miller was really bad (5.79 ERA from 2006 to 2011) before he became really good (2.57 ERA in the three seasons since) . Still, it seems pretty clear that the Yanks have improved. 

2016+ Impact: That depends on Miller not turning into a pumpkin and Greene not turning into a star. Greene was OK for the Yankees last year, with a slightly better-than-average 3.78 ERA in 15 appearances, all but one starts, but he's already 26, so I don't know that there's a lot of upside. 

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

They still can't believe Friedman and Maddon left.


TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Traded for: OF Michael Saunders
Traded away: SP J.A. Happ
Free agents signed: Nobody

2015 Impact: The Jays made two huge moves in November, signing free agent catcher Russell Martin and trading for third baseman Josh Donaldson, so they were due for a breather. Saunders was hurt half of last year with shoulder and oblique injuries but has been a consistently above-average offensive performer. Happ hasn't had a better-than-average ERA since 2010. I like this trade for the Jays.

2016+ Impact: Happ's a free agent after the 2015 season, Saunders after 2016, so even if neither re-signs, this is a better trade for Toronto beyond 2015.

Flyover: Detroit Tigers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Just before the July 31 trade deadline, the first-place Detroit Tigers completed a three-way trade in which they gave up center fielder Austin Jackson, starting pitcher Drew Smyly, and a minor leaguer for starting pitcher David Price. After the trade, the Tigers had the Cy Young award winners in 2013 (Max Scherzer), 2012 (Price), and 2011 (Justin Verlander) in their rotation, along with Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez, who might be No. 1 starters on other teams. The question was which of those five would go the bullpen when the Tigers waltzed to the postseason.

Since the trade, the Tigers are 19-19, have fallen out of first, two games behind the Royals, and entered today's games trailing the second wild card team, Seattle, by a game and a half. The question isn't their postseason rotation, it's whether they'll make the postseason at all.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, they're 15-15. That's not bad, but the Royals are 18-9. The offense has been pretty good: 5.00 runs per game, third most in the league. But they've given up 5.20 per game, second most. 

What's Going Right? The Tigers are batting .280 (first in the league), with a .338 on base percentage (also first), and a .415 slugging percentage (third) over the past 30 days. They're fourth in home runs with 25, and they've even stolen 21 bases, getting caught just five times. In 2013, the Tigers stole 35 bases all year.

As for the pitchers, as I'll argue in the next section, they've been better than the numbers would indicate. 

What's Going Wrong? Going into the season, the Tigers were viewed as having a good rotation, shaky bullpen. Over the past 30 days, the starters have been shelled, with a 4.89 ERA, worse than every team but the cover-your-eyes-bad Rangers and Twins. The relievers have been average, with a 3.53 ERA compared to a league average of 3.47. So what's been wrong with the starters? Well, it's probably partly bad luck. They've allowed a .345 batting average on balls in play, the highest in the league, and that's usually more indicative of bad luck than bad pitching. They've struck out the third most batters and allowed the third fewest walks, so that's not the problem. In fact, by the measure Fielding-Independent Pitching, or FIP, which calculates ERA based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, the Tigers starters have been second best in the league, not third worst. So what, you ask--well, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is. Painful as this stretch has been, the Tigers starters have really been better than they've seemed. 

Who's Hot? DH Victor Martinez has been scorching over the past 30 days. He's batting .375 (second in the league) with a .481 on base percentage (first) and a .616 slugging percentage (second). He's tied for first in RBI, second in runs, and tied for fifth in homers. In 135 plate appearances, he's walked 22 times and struck out only five times. Equally importantly, defending two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera, who batted just .252 with a single home run in August, is heating up, with four homers so far in September. Left fielder and Comeback of the Year candidate JD Martinez continues his career year, with a .302/.344/.483 slash line over the past 30 days.

Scherzer's the only starter with over 15 innings pitched with an ERA below 4.00 (3.32). Primary middle relievers Blaine Hardy, Phil Coke, and Al Albuquerque have pitched 40.1 innings over 37 games, with a 1.56 ERA.

Who's Not? Sanchez is hurt, and the ERAs for Porcello (4.13), Price (4.31), and Verlander (6.64) are all bad, though again, their component stats suggest they've been better than that. Rookie starter Robbie Ray as lasted only 11.1 inning in three starts and his ERA is legitimately bad, 10.32. Middle reliever Joba Chamberlain's compiled a 5.79 ERA over the past 30 days and closer Joe Nathan continues to make things way too exciting, allowing over two baserunners per inning pitched, including eight walks in 9.1 innings. Center fielder Ezequiel Carrera has been punchless over the last 30 days, with a .239/.271/.326 slash line, as has been shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.238/.297/.298).  

What's the Outlook? It seems to me that the pitchers are going to improve over the remaining games this year. Is it too late? The Tigers have 13 home games and six on the road remaining. The Royals have ten at home and ten on the road. So that's an advantage for Detroit. The Tigers have ten games against weak clubs (seven against Minnesota, three against the White Sox) and the Royals have eleven (four with Boston, seven with Chicago). And the two teams have three games against each other in each team's ballpark. It could come down to that. It's really hard to imagine the Tigers missing the postseason, but it seems that the key may be more catching the Mariners for the second wild card than passing Kansas City. 

What's Going On With: The Detroit Tigers

This is Part 5 of a six-part series looking at the three worst and three best teams in baseball to date, and figuring out why they've done what they've done and whether they'll keep on doing it. Having wrapped up the teams with the worst records (here are the links to the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and Arizona Diamondbacks), and the third-best San Francisco Giants, it's on to the second-best team, the Detroit Tigers. 

How Good Have They Been? The Tigers are 18-9, a .677 winning percentage. Over a 162-game season, that's equivalent to going 108-54. After starting the year 7-6, they've hit their stride, going 11-3 since April 18, including six in a row going into tonight's game.

How Much of a Surprise is This? The Tigers are always perennial candidates for a top record. They're a good ballclub playing in a weak division. As of today, they're the only AL Central team with a winning record. Playing 76 games a year against sub-.500 teams helps your record. Finding the Tigers among the top three isn't a surprise.

What's Been Right? The pitchers have allowed the second-fewest runs in the league, 3.81 per game, and their starters have the best ERA, 2.73, by far. That's not a surprise. Nor, really, has been the bullpen's second-worst 5.24 ERA; the Tigers never seem to have good relievers. But when your starting five is Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, and Drew Smyly, you need don't a great bullpen. Porcello's 3.66 ERA is the worst of that bunch, and Verlander's 2.68 is only third-best.

The offense has been good enough, scoring 4.84 runs per game, fifth in the league. You figure that will improve once Miguel Cabrera (.270/.319/.414, two home runs so far) gets hot, as he inevitably will.

A lot was made of Detroit's defensive upgrade this year, moving Cabrera from third to first and getting a full year from slick-fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias. Iglesias is out with stress fractures in both legs, but the Tigers have turned 69.5% of balls in play into outs this year, fourth in the league, a big improvement over last year's third-worst 68.2%. That's helped the pitching staff, already a strength.

Has Luck Been Involved? Please refer here for a discussion of the terms used below, and why I chose them.

There are some causes for concern here. The Tigers are 6-2 in one-run games, a pace that they're unlikely to continue. They're hitting .318 on balls in play, best in the league, while the pitchers are allowing .289, the fourth lowest. One or the other's likely to move toward the league average of .297. More notably, the hitters are batting .285 with runners in scoring position, while the pitchers have allowed just .211. The league average is .247. It's pretty likely that the batters or pitchers, or both, will do worse as the year progresses. 

What's The Outlook? The Tigers seem to have been somewhat lucky to be where they are. But this is a team that could be playing .500 ball and still lead its division. The Tigers may not play win at a .667 clip the rest of the way, but Baseball Prospectus rates them as the most likely team in the AL to make the postseason and win the Series, and it seems about right.