Trailing 30 - July 12

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: You sure can't blame the Tigers' poor record of late on J.D. Martinez.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Los Angeles     17-10     1. Pittsburgh      20- 8

2. Kansas City     17-11     2. St. Louis       17-11    

3. Boston          15-12     3. Washington      16-10         

4. Baltimore       15-13     4. Arizona         15-12   

   Oakland         15-13     5. Milwaukee       15-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Texas           11-16     1. Philadelphia     7-22      

2. Tampa Bay       13-16     2. San Diego        9-18       

3. Chicago         13-14     3. Colorado        11-17      

   Detroit         13-14     4. San Francisco   11-16
5. Toronto         14-15     5. Miami           12-15

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Cain, KC         .386     1. Harper, Was      .373  

2. Betts, Bos       .379     2. Parra, Mil       .364      

3. Machado, Bal     .358     3. Revere, Phi      .355           

4. JD Martinez, Det .356     4. Marte, Pit       .348          

5. Odor, Tex        .355     5. Posey, SF        .337       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Moss, Cle        .153     1. Desmond, Was     .143          

2. Zunino, Sea      .159     2. Norris, SD       .150       

3. Carter, Hou      .161     3. Fowler, Chi      .163
4. LaRoche, Chi     .175     4. Reynolds, SL     .174           

5. Morrison, Sea    .184     5. Polanco, Pit     .176      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Trout, LA        .461     1. Harper, Was      .472           

2. Cain, KC         .453     2. McCutchen, Pit   .443          

3. Machado, Bal     .440     3. Yelich, Mia      .430         

4. Gordon, KC       .439     4. Goldschmidt, Ari .430          

5. Gardner, NY      .421     5. Span, Was        .427      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. JD Martinez, Det .842     1. Harper, Was      .707        

2. Trout, LA        .723     2. Arenado, Col     .695     

3. Betts, Bos       .699     3. Gonzalez, Col    .609       

4. Cain, KC         .699     4. Bruce, Cin       .592       

5. Machado, Bal     .661     5. Parra, Mil       .582        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. JD Martinez, Det   15     1. Arenado, Col        9
2. Machado, Bal        9     2. Frazier, Cin        8        

   Moreland, Tex       9        Grandal, LA         8
   Pujols, LA          9     4. Gonzalez, Col       7
   Trout, LA           9     5. 5 with              6

   Runs                         Runs    

1. JD Martinez, Det   24     1. Arenado, Col       20        

2. Betts, Bos         23        Parra, Mil         20     

   Machado, Bal       23     3. Grichuk, SL        18
4. 3 with             21        Posey, SF          18
                             5. 4 with             17

   RBI                          RBI      

1. JD Martinez, Det   32     1. Posey, SF          23        

2. Pujols, LA         24     2. Arenado, Col       22      

3. Bautista, Tor      22     3. Goldschmidt, Ari   20       

   Machado, Bal       22        Lind, Mil          20
   Moreland, Tex      22        Ramirez, Mil       20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Altuve, Hou         8     1. Hamilton, Cin      19               2. Cain, KC            7     2. Gordon, Mia        13     

3. Burns, Oak          6     3. Blackmon, Col      10   

   Dozier, Min         6        Hernandez, Phi     10
   Gose, Det           6     5. Revere, Phi         9
                                                     
   Saves                        Saves

1. Uehara, Bos         9     1. Melancon, Pit      10

2. Clippard, Oak       8     2. Familia, NY         9

3. 4 with              7     3. Grilli, Atl         8
                                Jansen, LA          8

                                Ziegler, Ari        8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gallardo, Tex    0.84     1. Greinke, LA      0.41

2. Anderson, Cle    0.89     2. deGrom, NY       1.51

3. Milone, Min      1.62     3. Locke, Pit       1.59

4. Buehrle, Tor     1.67     4. Martinez, SL     1.60

5. Price, Det       1.73     5. Lackey, SL       1.69

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Simon, Det       9.11     1. Hale, Col        6.75

2. Pelfrey, Min     7.59     2. Lohse, Mil       6.35

3. Sabathia, NY     6.04     3. Anderson, Ari    5.40

4. Rodriguez, Bos   5.63        Kendrick, Col    5.40

5. Danks, Chi       5.59     5. Hamels, Phi      4.91

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Anderson, Cle    0.66     1. Scherzer, Was    0.49

2. Walker, Sea      0.84     2. Greinke, LA      0.64
3. Sale, Chi        0.84     3. Cueto, Cin       0.71

4. Buehrle, Tor     0.86     4. deGrom, NY       0.76
5. Chen, Bal        0.90     5. Syndergaard, NY  0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          64     1. Kershaw, LA        59     

2. Carrasco, Cle      45     2. Bumgarner, SF      49

3. Keuchel, Hou       42     3. Scherzer, Was      46

4. Price, Det         41     4. Lester, Chi        39

5. 4 with             39     5. 4 with             38

Next Up: The Detroit Tigers

The Pirates wrap up their interleague series with the Detroit Tigers with three games in Detroit, starting tonight. They still have three games in Kansas City, two in Minnesota, and three at PNC Park against the Indians before they're done with interleague play this year. The Pirates dropped two of three to Detroit in mid-April, as they stumbled out the gate to a 3-6 record. They face a Tigers team that's shaping up as one of the American League's more disappointing clubs: Picked by most (including me) to win the Central division, they're in third, 6.5 behind the Royals and one behind the Twins. They trail Yankees, Twins, and Blue Jays in the race for the second wild card.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Tigers are 11-13, the fifth worst record in the American League. They've scored 4.8 runs per game, fifth most in the league, but allowed 5.0, the most in the league. The bullpen, a perennial Detroit issue, has saved only two games, fewest in the league, and been charged with five blown saves, the most. But let's not blame just the pitchers: while the Tigers are tied with the Orioles for the fewest errors in the league this season, 35, they rate only in the middle of the pack in advanced metrics over the last 30 days, indicating that while they're sure-handed, they're not getting to tons of balls.

What's Going Right? As the runs-per-game numbers indicate, the offense has been pretty good. Over the last 30 days, they're third in the league in batting at .276; sixth in on base percentage at .325, and sixth in slugging at .430. When you see a team that's doing better at batting than on base percentage and slugging, the conclusion is that they don't walk a lot and they don't hit for a lot of power. That's the Tigers: They've walked in just 6.3% of their plate appearances, third-lowest in the league, and they're tied for the sixth-fewest home runs. They don't exactly burn on the basepaths, either. They've grounded into the fifth-most double plays over the last 30 days, and they've been worthless as base stealers: eight steals (fifth fewest in the league), eight caught stealings (tied for third most). But overall, the offense isn't why they're struggling.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers haven't been that bad--ERA of 4.12 over the past 30 days, seventh worst in the league--but man, that bullpen. Their 5.24 reliever ERA over the past 30 days is the worst in the American League by almost 0.8 runs. They've struck out only 17% of the batters they've faced (the AL average for relievers is over 22%), worse than all but the strikeout-phobic Twins, and while the .341 batting average they've allowed on balls in pay is suggestive of some bad luck--an unusually large number of batted balls falling in for hits rather than into fielders' gloves--they've allowed the most home runs per nine innings pitched, 1.5, in the league. 

Who's Hot? The Tigers have had two reliable starters over the past 30 days: David Price (3-1, 2.08 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 2.63 ERA). Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face either. And the Tigers have had three pretty good middle relievers (Al Albuquerque, Blaine Hardy, and and Alex Wilson) who've combined for a 1.60 ERA over 31 appearances. 

But most of the hot players for the Tigers swing a bat. Over the last 30 days, first baseman Miguel Cabrera leads the American League in batting (.386) and on base percentage (.485) and is sixth in slugging (.602). He's been the star, but there's been an ample supporting cast. Right fielder J.D. Martinez has ten homers and a .644 slugging percentage. Left fielder Yoenis Cespedes has a .323 batting average, and slick-fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias is batting .316. 

Who's Not? In lieu of Price and Sanchez, the Bucs will go against Justin Verlander, Alfredo Simon, and Kyle Ryan, who've combined for a 5.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 12 home runs and only 37 strikeouts over 57 innings. As for the bullpen, put it this way: The Tigers' closer, Joakim Soria, has allowed two more home runs over the past 30 days (five) than any Pirates reliever has all season. The weakest points in the lineup over the past 30 days have been speedy rookie center fielder Anthony Gose (.157/.213/.171 slash line; he's been losing playing time to the better-hitting Rajai Davis), third baseman Nick Castellanos (.214/.267/.286), and catcher James McCann (.203/.246/.344).

What's the Outlook? Well, the Pirates' strategy is pretty obvious. Score runs against the Tigers pitching. The problem is, over the last 30 days, the Pirates have scored the third-fewest runs in the National League, with the fewest home runs and the lowest slugging percentage. It's time for the Pirates to start hitting.

The Undefeated Detroit Tigers

After compiling a 2-4 road record against, in all likelihood, the two worst teams in the National League Central, the Pirates play their home opener today against the Detroit Tigers, one of two undefeated teams so far. The other, the Kansas City Royals, are in the Tigers' division, so the two teams are tied for first in the American League Central at 6-0. The Tigers, however, lead the majors in run scored, with 47, and run differential, scoring 31 more than their opponents. They pace the majors in batting average (.355) AND on base percentage (.433) AND slugging percentage (.550), and they're second to the Atlanta Braves in ERA (2.00). They've started the season well, obviously.

This illustrates my gripe with interleague play. It's necessary now, because each league has 15 teams, so in order to have every team active, there has to be at least one interleague game everyday. Fine. I'm not crazy with how baseball did well throughout the 20th century with the two leagues not meeting outside of the All-Star Game and the World Series, but whatever. It doesn't spoil the game for me, even though every year it foments a new round of the same DH arguments we've heard for 40+ years. 

The problem is that the schedule's not balanced. Everybody plays 20 games agaisnt the other league, but they don't play the same teams. In the Central, the Pirates play six games against the Tigers, the defending divisional champion. That's the most in the National League Central. The Cubs and Reds play the Tigers just four times, the Brewers and Cardinals three times. The Brewers get six games against the woeful Minnesota Twins, compared to four for the Cardinals and Pirates and three for the Cubs and Reds. Here are the weighted won-lost records of each National League Central team's American League opponents this year:

• .511 Reds
• .504 Pirates
• .503 Cardinals
• .498 Cubs
• .495 Brewers

Granted, those aren't huge differences--over 162 games, the Reds' average opponent would be 83-79, while the Brewers' would be 80-82--but why should there be a difference at all? And I'm not factoring in home-and-away games. For example, the Cardinals have three games against the Tigers, who won 90 games last year and are 6-0 this year, at home and none on the road. The Pirates have three games against the Royals, who won 89 games last year and are 6-0 this year, on the road and none at home. If I tweak the weighted won-lost records by home/road splits, using the overall average that home teams win 54% of games, I get this:

• .511 Reds
• .505 Pirates
• .503 Cardinals
• .497 Cubs
• .497 Brewers 

Again, not huge differences, but one game could be the difference between first place and a wild card, or a wild card and going home. If we're going to have interleague play, shouldn't it be balanced? Four games, two home and two away, against each opponent in the other league would do it. As is, we could get pennant races decided by the schedule instead of the players. And it's worth emphasizing that the Pirates play a tougher interleague schedule than any team in their division other than the Reds.

There's a reason for the unbalanced interleague schedule. It allows for six games--three home, three away--between natural interleague rivals, like Mets/Yankees and Dodgers/Angels. That, of course, limits the number of games with other teams. In the National League Central, there are six games between the Cubs and White Sox for supremacy of Chicago, six games between the Cardinals and Royals for supremacy of Missouri, six between the Reds and Indians for supremacy of Ohio, and six between the Brewers and Twins for supremacy of States You'd Best Avoid In The Winter. For the Pirates, though, their natural rival is probably cross-state Philadelphia, which is already in the National League. So instead...Hey, let's replay the 1909 World Series, every year! Pirates beat the Tigers, four games to three! Honus* outshines Ty! Unfortunately, 106 years later, the Pirates are stuck playing six games against a team that's won its division five straight times.

*The Honus Wagner/Ty Cobb thing was the big story of the series, as the Pirates shortstop and the Tigers right fielder were their respective leagues' big stars (and batting champions). Wagner, 35, easily outhit Cobb in the Series, batting .333 with a .967 OPS, compared to the 22-year-old Cobb's .231/.656. And please, don't say Honus as in bonus. It's pronounced hah-niss, like..um...hah-niss.

Happy Opening Day!

Here's a fantastic heartwarming piece by the great Joe Posnanski. He calls it "A Baseball Story." It's not. It's a human potential story. Posnanski is a national treasure.

Now, on to the season. Last year I did detailed predictions for each division. Given that the season's started, and I was out of the country since mid-March, I'm not going to do that this year. But let's get some stakes in the ground:

National League East
Washington Nationals, 91-71: There are, in my mind, five locks in baseball this season. Three are in this division. This is one of them. The Nationals are, to me, clearly the best team in the division, arguably in the league.
New York Mets, 84-78: Mets fans are pessimistic about the team. Mets fans have learned their pessimism from experience. Still, even with young righthander Zack Wheeler out with Tommy John surgery, this is a...well, not excellent, but an okay team. Sure, the offense is suspect, but in 2015, just about everybody's offense is suspect.
Miami Marlins, 81-81: The Marlins are kind of a fashionable pick. I don't care for that fashion. The outfield's great, and they have some good arms, but there are too many weaknesses elsewhere for me to get excited.
Atlanta Braves, 69-93: Lock No. 2. The Braves have all but admitted they're in rebuilding mode, shedding stars (Jayson Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel) for prospects. But they won't be in last place because...
Philadelphia Phillies, 64-98: ...the Phillies are probably the worst team in baseball right now. Lock No. 3

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals, 89-73: Yes, the Cards have a great farm system, but they're also reliant on some older players (Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday) who are going to get old someday. Probably not today, though.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 85-77: Probably the best outfield in baseball, but the loss of catcher Russell Martin to free agency will be felt, and I have a hard time seeing last year's surprise hero, Josh Harrison, duplicating his performance.
Chicago Cubs, 81-81: Cool your jets, Cubs fans. Your farm system's fantastic, even after graduating a lot of guys to the majors. You got Jon Lester and Joe Maddon during the offseason. But this was a last-place, 89-loss team last year. Getting to .500 would be a tremendous improvement.
Milwaukee Brewers, 78-84: They spent most of last season in first place. I'd be surprised if they see much if it this year.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: They can't hit, and if they're out of contention at the All-Star Break, they might trade starting pitcher Johnny Cueto, an impending free agent, and then things would get really ugly.

National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers, 94-68: The fourth lock. They've been criticized by some for trading outfielder Matt Kemp and second baseman Dee Gordon, but the replacements (rookie Joc Pederson, former Angel Howie Kendrick) could wind up being just about as good.
San Diego Padres, 86-76: Another trendy pick, as new GM A.J. Preller remade the team. They'll be better, but the infield's awful.
San Francisco Giants, 84-78: No, it's not just because the Giants win only in even-numbered years. They lost third baseman Pablo Sandoval to free agency, outfielder Hunter Pence is on the disabled list, and there are a lot of questions in the rotation after postseason hero Madison Bumgarner.
Colorado Rockies, 78-84: DON'T SAY IT. Yes, I know, this team could be pretty good if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez can stay in the lineup together. But they can't. One or the other will get hurt. Or both. Don't get your hopes up.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 71-91: I wouldn't say they're a lock for last, but they're not a good club, either. Worst record in baseball last year, you know.

American League East
Boston Red Sox, 88-74: Viva la parity. The additions of Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, and the presumed return to health of Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli, makes the team's offense formidable. The pitching...not so much. But this is no longer a killer division.
Toronto Blue Jays, 84-78: Really, you could almost draw the names of these five teams out of a hat; they're all pretty close. I really like the additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.
New York Yankees, 82-80: Because the Yankees are incapable of finishing a season with a losing record.
Baltimore Orioles, 80-82: Over the past three seasons, the O's have won the second-most games in the American League. I haven't been able to figure out why. The batters don't get on base a lot and the starting rotation is unimpressive if solid. In Buck we trust, I suppose. I'm probably going to be wrong about them again.
Tampa Bay Rays, 77-85: I think the departure of GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon are the beginning of the end for one of my favorite teams. (I like small-market, low-budget teams.)

American League Central
Detroit Tigers, 88-74: They've won four divisional titles in a row. The streak will come to an end, probably soon, as the team's getting old. But I don't think this is they year.
Cleveland Indians, 84-78: Another trendy pick, and I would like nothing more than to see this small-market, low-budget team succeed. But the team's pitchers, unbelievable in the second half of the year (2.95 starter ERA, best in the league), are due for regression, and the team's defense won't help. But I'll be pulling for them, if for no other reason than radio announcer Tom Hamilton's home run calls.
Chicago White Sox, 83-79: Another greatly improved team - they lost 89 games last year - but not enough to contend, yet.
Kansas City Royals, 79-83: Yeah, I know, they came within a game of winning the World Championship. But they didn't win their division, and they kind of lucked their way to a wild card win. Over the winter, they lost their No. 1 starter and their DH. I'm not buying sustained success.
Minnesota Twins, 70-92: My fifth and final lock. I've documented my lack of affection for the Twins.

American League West
Seattle Mariners, 89-73: You can make a case that the other two top contenders in this tight division enter 2015 weaker than 2014. Not so the Mariners.
Los Angeles Angels, 86-76: They had the best record in baseball last year. But they enter the season with concerns in the rotation and at second base and overpaid slugger Josh Hamilton recovering from shoulder surgery and a drug relapse.
Oakland Athletics, 79-83: I mentioned that I don't understand how the Orioles have managed the second-most wins in the league over the past three years. I even more don't understand how the A's are No. 1, but they are. What they did this offseason strikes me as a teardown. But I've been wrong before.
Houston Astros, 79-83: Everything is going according to plan. The Astros improved by 19 games last year, and I see another nine this year. Eight or so next year, and they're talking playoffs.
Texas Rangers, 75-87: I thought they might rebound strongly from their injury-riddled 2014, but then ace pitcher Yu Darvish went down with Tommy John surgery.

Your On The Field Of Play Postseason Primer

Postseason play starts today. I'm going to throw out some opinions and predictions. I don't pretend that they'll be right or anything like that. I'll update them as we get deeper into October. For a clever, funny take on the postseason, check out Hardball Talk's Craig Calcaterra on whom to support in the American League and the National League.

American League Wild Card Game. Predicting the outcome of one game in baseball is sheer folly, and I'm not going to do it. This isn't the NFL, where bad teams almost never beat good teams. This year the Los Angeles Angels had the best record in the American League (and, for that matter, all of baseball). The Texas Rangers had the worst. The Angels, as you might expect, beat up on the Rangers, winning the season series 14-5. That means the Rangers won 26% of their games with LA. That's dominance over 19 games, but for any one game between the clubs, the Rangers had a better than one-in-four chance of winning. So predicting the winner of one game between two good clubs? It's just silly.

Anyway, tonight's AL wild card game is Oakland at Kansas City. (Throughout this post, the links will be to my most recent 30-day flyovers of the teams. Keep in mind that the data and commentaries in the links are relevant as of the day of the post.) Whatever happens, this game will break my heart, because these are possibly the two most compelling teams in the entire postseason as far as I'm concerned. Consider:

• The Royals are making their first postseason appearance since they won the World Series in 1985. By contrast, the A's have been to the postseason seven times since the current format (Divisional Series-Championship Series-World Series) was instituted in 1995, and they've lost seven Divisional Series excruciatingly, three games to two. In the other year, 2006, they were swept in the ALCS by the Tigers. So both teams are due.
• I am a sucker for small-market, low-payroll teams. This year, only three teams made the postseason with payrolls below the major league median of $95.8 million: The Royals ($89.3 million), the A's ($74.9 million), and the Pirates ($71.5 million). Those three teams were 17th, 26th, and 27th in total payroll. The other seven playoff teams were 1st, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 15th. The A's-Royals game will eliminate one of the three low-payroll teams.
• The A's were tied for the second-worst record in baseball (5-8) over the last two weeks of the season. They had the worst record (10-18) over the last 30 days. They tied for the fourth-worst record (29-38) since the All-Star break. Yet they finished with the best run differential (729 scored, 572 allowed) in the majors. Kansas City, by contrast, scored only 27 more runs than they allowed, the second-lowest differential (St. Louis' was 16).
• The Oakland Moneyball teams were famous for drawing walks and hitting home runs. (This year's version was only eighth in homers but lead the league in walks.) The Royals were last in the league in both.
• The starting pitcher for the Royals, James Shields, was acquired by the team in a big trade last year (that many criticized because of the hitter that they gave up, Wil Myers) specifically for his ability to win big games like tonight's. The starting pitcher for the A's, Jon Lester, was acquired by the team in a big trade this year (that many criticized because of the hitter they gave up, Yoenis Cespedes) specifically for his ability to win big games like tonight's.

That's a lot of words for a single game that I think is unpredictable. Either way, it's going to be sad to see the loser go.

National League Wild Card Game. Again, predicting the outcome of one game in baseball is sheer folly, and I'm not going to do it. A few interesting points about San Francisco at Pittsburgh: The Giants travel to PNC Park, where the Pirates tied for the league lead for the best record at home (51-30). The Giants' road record of 43-38 was the third best in the league, however. The Giants' starting pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, will get Cy Young Award votes this year: He was fourth in wins (18), innings pitched (217.1), strikeouts (219), and strikeouts/walks (5.1), and seventh in WHIP (1.09). He also led all pitchers in home runs (4), RBI (15), and, among those with over 40 plate appearances, batting average (.258), on base percentage (.286), and slugging percentage (.470). The Pirates' starter, Edinson Volquez, had a career-best 3.04 ERA, aided by a career-low walk rate of 8.8% of plate appearances. On the other hand, he batted only .038--he's no Madison Bumgarner--and in his one postseason appearance, for the Reds in the 2010 Divisional Series against the Phillies, he didn't make it out of the second inning: four hits, two walks, and no strikeouts in an inning and two-thirds, good for a 21.60 ERA. If the Pirates lose, we'll be down to just one small-market low-payroll team in the postseason.

American League Divisional Series: Detroit-Baltimore. Let's go over the negatives first: The O's have been lucky (32-23 record in one run games--that's luck, not skill), they don't get on base enough (.311 on base percentage, fifth worst in the league), and they're without three of their best players (catcher Matt Wieters, third baseman Manny Machado, first baseman Chris Davis). The Tigers' supposedly invincible rotation of Max Scherzer, David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello had the sixth-worst ERA (3.95) in the league since the All-Star Break; and defending two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera has been only really good (seventh in batting average at .313, tenth in on-base percentage at .371, seventh in slugging percentage at .524) instead of sensational. Overall, there's part of me that thinks that the Orioles have been doing it with mirrors: Starting rotation led by Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez, 54-29 with a 3.44 ERA after a combined 109-104, 4.16 ERA in their prior seasons? Home run champion Nelson Cruz with 40 bombs at age 33 after never hitting more than 33 in a season? Outfielder Steve Pearce with a .556 slugging percentage after slugging .377 in seven prior seasons? Still, I think there are legitimate questions about the Tigers pitching, and I have a mild aversion to first-year managers (the Tigers' Brad Ausmus) in the postseason, particularly when the other guys have Buck Showalter. I favor the Orioles.

American League Divisional Series: Wild Card-Los Angeles. The Angels had the best record in baseball at 98-66; a three-game losing streak at the end of the year prevented them from getting 100 victories. And they will play, with home field advantage, a wild card team with serious flaws, as the A's can't win (at least since the All-Star Break) and the Royals can't hit. Still, I could see a potential upset here. The Angels' best starting pitcher, Garrett Richards (13-4, 2.61 ERA), is out for the year with a knee injury. Their second-best starter, Matt Shoemaker (16-4, 3.04 ERA) hasn't pitched since September 15 due to a strained oblique. Jered Weaver (18-9, 3.59) has had a good season, but after that, they are probably going to tax their pretty-good-but-not-great bullpen. They're the best hitting team in the league (4.8 runs per game, 0.1 better than the Tigers) and they have the league's MVP, Mike Trout, so I'm not going to pick against them. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were to lose.

National League Divisional Series: St. Louis-Los Angeles. For whatever it's worth, I'll bet you there are more people rooting against these two teams than the other eight in the postseason combined. Of course, the biggest reason for that is that the Yankees and Red Sox aren't playing. But the Cardinals have become a postseason constant (they've missed it only four times since 2000) and their claim to the "best fans in baseball" annoys everyone who doesn't follow the team. As for the Dodgers, they've supplanted the Yankees as the big-payroll behemoth ($213 million payroll vs. $208 million for the Yankees) and they have one of the most polarizing players in baseball, Yasiel Puig. (I like him, but his antics irk a lot of people). As for the teams, they have their weaknesses--the Cardinals' offense (tenth in the league in scoring 3.8 runs per game), and the Dodgers' bullpen (eighth in the league in runs allowed per nine innings at 3.8). They have the likely 1-2 Cy Young Award finishers: The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (21-3, 1.77 ERA) is a mortal lock, and the Redbirds' Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA) is almost certainly the runner-up. The Cardinals, though, have been kind of lucky, as their run differential (619 scored, 603 allowed) is the lowest among the playoff teams, aided by a second-in-the-league 32-23 record in one-run games. That's enough for me to think the Dodgers will avenge last year's NLCS loss.

National League Divisional Series: Wild Card-Washington. As I said in my Nationals 30-day flyover: 

The Nationals don't seem to me to have any noticeable holes. The bullpen's not great, but with that starting rotation, they aren't overly reliant on their relievers. They'll get the winner of the Giants-Pirates wild card game for a five-game series starting Friday. They will be favored to win, with good reason.

(I also added, "which probably means they'll get swept or something." As FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron said in a chat last week, referring to success in the postseason, "There's no secret formula that works better than others. It's basically random.") This isn't a knock on the two wild card teams. I think the Pirates and Giants are both better teams than the American League entries. It's just that the Nationals have the league's best starting rotation, no glaring weaknesses in the lineup, and a bullpen that's not sensational but good enough. They're my pick to go all the way.

Flyover: Detroit Tigers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

Just before the July 31 trade deadline, the first-place Detroit Tigers completed a three-way trade in which they gave up center fielder Austin Jackson, starting pitcher Drew Smyly, and a minor leaguer for starting pitcher David Price. After the trade, the Tigers had the Cy Young award winners in 2013 (Max Scherzer), 2012 (Price), and 2011 (Justin Verlander) in their rotation, along with Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez, who might be No. 1 starters on other teams. The question was which of those five would go the bullpen when the Tigers waltzed to the postseason.

Since the trade, the Tigers are 19-19, have fallen out of first, two games behind the Royals, and entered today's games trailing the second wild card team, Seattle, by a game and a half. The question isn't their postseason rotation, it's whether they'll make the postseason at all.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, they're 15-15. That's not bad, but the Royals are 18-9. The offense has been pretty good: 5.00 runs per game, third most in the league. But they've given up 5.20 per game, second most. 

What's Going Right? The Tigers are batting .280 (first in the league), with a .338 on base percentage (also first), and a .415 slugging percentage (third) over the past 30 days. They're fourth in home runs with 25, and they've even stolen 21 bases, getting caught just five times. In 2013, the Tigers stole 35 bases all year.

As for the pitchers, as I'll argue in the next section, they've been better than the numbers would indicate. 

What's Going Wrong? Going into the season, the Tigers were viewed as having a good rotation, shaky bullpen. Over the past 30 days, the starters have been shelled, with a 4.89 ERA, worse than every team but the cover-your-eyes-bad Rangers and Twins. The relievers have been average, with a 3.53 ERA compared to a league average of 3.47. So what's been wrong with the starters? Well, it's probably partly bad luck. They've allowed a .345 batting average on balls in play, the highest in the league, and that's usually more indicative of bad luck than bad pitching. They've struck out the third most batters and allowed the third fewest walks, so that's not the problem. In fact, by the measure Fielding-Independent Pitching, or FIP, which calculates ERA based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, the Tigers starters have been second best in the league, not third worst. So what, you ask--well, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA is. Painful as this stretch has been, the Tigers starters have really been better than they've seemed. 

Who's Hot? DH Victor Martinez has been scorching over the past 30 days. He's batting .375 (second in the league) with a .481 on base percentage (first) and a .616 slugging percentage (second). He's tied for first in RBI, second in runs, and tied for fifth in homers. In 135 plate appearances, he's walked 22 times and struck out only five times. Equally importantly, defending two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera, who batted just .252 with a single home run in August, is heating up, with four homers so far in September. Left fielder and Comeback of the Year candidate JD Martinez continues his career year, with a .302/.344/.483 slash line over the past 30 days.

Scherzer's the only starter with over 15 innings pitched with an ERA below 4.00 (3.32). Primary middle relievers Blaine Hardy, Phil Coke, and Al Albuquerque have pitched 40.1 innings over 37 games, with a 1.56 ERA.

Who's Not? Sanchez is hurt, and the ERAs for Porcello (4.13), Price (4.31), and Verlander (6.64) are all bad, though again, their component stats suggest they've been better than that. Rookie starter Robbie Ray as lasted only 11.1 inning in three starts and his ERA is legitimately bad, 10.32. Middle reliever Joba Chamberlain's compiled a 5.79 ERA over the past 30 days and closer Joe Nathan continues to make things way too exciting, allowing over two baserunners per inning pitched, including eight walks in 9.1 innings. Center fielder Ezequiel Carrera has been punchless over the last 30 days, with a .239/.271/.326 slash line, as has been shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.238/.297/.298).  

What's the Outlook? It seems to me that the pitchers are going to improve over the remaining games this year. Is it too late? The Tigers have 13 home games and six on the road remaining. The Royals have ten at home and ten on the road. So that's an advantage for Detroit. The Tigers have ten games against weak clubs (seven against Minnesota, three against the White Sox) and the Royals have eleven (four with Boston, seven with Chicago). And the two teams have three games against each other in each team's ballpark. It could come down to that. It's really hard to imagine the Tigers missing the postseason, but it seems that the key may be more catching the Mariners for the second wild card than passing Kansas City. 

Getting Traded

This was a weird moment. The Tigers were playing a game against the White Sox at the trade deadline on Thursday. The Tigers completed a three-way trade with the Mariners and Rays just minutes before the 4 PM EDT deadline, with centerfielder Austin Jackson going to Seattle. The thing is, trades are official as soon as they're announced, and Jackson was, at that moment, playing center for Detroit. So Tigers manager Brad Ausmus had to pull him from the game, replacing him in center with Rajai Davis.

Davis was the Tigers' centerfielder for five seasons. Note that the last player he hugs in the dugout, pitcher Max Scherzer, was traded to the Tigers with Jackson in December 2009 in another Tigers three-way trade, this one involving the Yankees and Diamondbacks.

Sweet Play of the Day - June 30

As you know, I usually pick fielding plays. But this was a particularly dramatic at bat: Last of the ninth, one out, bases loaded, Tigers trailing the A's by 3, Rajai Davis at the plate for Detroit.

Sweet Play of the Day - June 28

The context makes this a great play. The Astros are up by one run in the seventh, but the visiting Tigers have the bases loaded with two outs, meaning that a base hit changes the lead. Astros outfielder L.J. Hoes delivers.



(Too bad Hoes' performance didn't motivate the Astros bullpen, which gave up three runs in the ninth to lose the game.)

What's Going On With: Joe Nathan

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	G	GF	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP
2012 ★	37	TEX	AL	3	5	2.80	66	62	37	64.1	55	20	7	13	78	157	1.057
2013 ★	38	TEX	AL	6	2	1.39	67	61	43	64.2	36	10	2	22	73	297	0.897
2014	39	DET	AL	3	2	6.57	27	22	13	24.2	27	18	4	13	21	64	1.622

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2014.

What's The Story? The Tigers, perennially in need of bullpen help, signed closer Joe Nathan as a free agent over the winter. Some thought that the team's other two big trades, sending first baseman Prince Fielder to Texas and starter Doug Fister to Washington, were made in part to clear salary space for Nathan, whom the Tigers are paying $9 million this year and $10 million in 2015. Though this article wondered whether age might catch up with Nathan, his track record through age 38 was pretty unimpeachable. Here's a list of saves leaders between the ages of 29 and 38, a period during which Nathan lost a year and a half due to injury:

Player	SV	G	GF	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
Mariano Rivera	398	651	598	46	39	716.0	543	166	143	649	2.09	217	33
Trevor Hoffman	384	582	502	25	36	598.0	458	167	146	655	2.51	159	50
Joe Nathan	340	593	517	33	20	592.1	400	141	169	712	2.14	204	43
Lee Smith	329	601	501	35	50	670.0	598	228	246	688	3.06	134	53
Billy Wagner	315	601	510	28	22	622.1	415	147	174	774	2.13	205	54
Francisco Cordero	304	609	495	37	40	598.0	539	220	256	596	3.31	133	45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/18/2014.

It hasn't worked out as planned. As you can see from the table at the top, Nathan's been terrible. Among American League relievers with at least 20 innings pitched, he ranks 80 out of 83 in ERA and 75 in WHIP. He's a big contributor to Detroit's league-worst 4.67 relief ERA. He's striking out fewer batters and walking more than any time since he became a reliever in 2003.

If You Don't Want to Read All the Rest of This: He's not getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone, he's shown a propensity for the longball, and, well, he's old. 

What's He Throwing?
Against Lefties:
Year   Fastball Slider  Curve  Sinker   Change
2012      48%     19%     22%     12%      0%
2013      28%     33%     14%     26%      0%
2014      45%     18%     22%     18%      3%

Against Righties:
Year   Fastball Slider  Curve  Sinker   Change
2012      53%     35%      7%      5%      0%
2013      50%     39%      5%      5%      0%
2014      40%     50%      5%      4%      0%

Overall:
Year   Fastball Slider  Curve  Sinker   Change
2012      50%     25%     16%      9%      0%
2013      38%     35%     10%     16%      0%
2014      45%     33%     14%      9%      2%

There's really not a lot of change in his repertoire overall, but he's changed his approach toward both lefties (more fastballs, fewer sliders--much like he pitched in 2012) and righties (fewer fastballs, more sliders). Lefties are pounding him (.391 on base percentage, .455 slugging percentage - that's basically Tony Gwynn's career) and righties are hitting him harder (.320 on base, .395 slugging) than they have in years.

What Are The Results?
Year      Zone%    O-Swing%   HR/FB%

2012      51.1%     32.4%     13.0%
2013      49.4%     31.9%      3.0%
2014      48.9%     27.6%     13.8%
Career    48.1%     33.1%      7.3%

Remember the rule: It's good to throw strikes, but better to get strikes. So far this year, 49% of Nathan's pitches are in the strike zone (Zone%). That's down a little from recent years, though it's still OK. More worryingly, though, he's getting batters to swing at less than 28% of pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). Among AL relievers with 20 or more innings, he's middle of the pack (41 of 83) at pitching in the strike zone but 54th at getting batters to chase. Last year he was in the top third at inducing swings outside the strike zone.

Nathan likes to pitch to the left side of the plate (inside to right-handed hitters, outside to lefties). In 2012, he got batters to swing at 31% of pitches outside the strike zone thrown to that side of the plate. It was 29% last year but plunged to 24% this year. As a result, he's walking more batters. Plus, when batters hit balls in the air, they're going out more, as his ratio of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB%) is way up, from 3% last year to 14% this year.

This is not about a lack of control, as his Zone% indicates. It's about his pitches outside the strike zone being easier to lay off, and those in the strike zone easier to hit.

What Does the Future Hold? His home runs per fly ball percentage has been wildly eccentric the past few years and could very well stabilize at closer to his lifetime average of 7% or the league average of 11%. That'd help lower his home run rate.

But his inability to get strikes on pitches outside the zone...that's a problem. Batters are laying off those pitches and waiting for him to throw in the zone, where they're batting .377 against him. There's not an obvious problem, like a lack of velocity or an inability to throw strikes. Maybe it's just that time's catching up with a 39-year-old arm. But unless he can start fooling hitters again, the ninth inning could be tough for yet another year in Detroit.

(All data here from Brooks Baseball and Baseball-Reference.)