Next Up: The Minnesota Twins

Continuing their tough second half schedule, the Pirates travel to Minnesota to play two games against the Twins, their eighth and ninth straight games against teams currently qualifying for the postseason, before traveling to Cincinnati for four games against the (Cueto-less) Reds. After that respite, it's twelve straight against teams with winning records: Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Twins are 12-12 over the past 30 days, the sixth best record in the American League. During those 30 days, they've scored 4.3 runs per game, the seventh most in the league, while giving up 4.2 per game, the seventh most. That's the run differential of a .500 club. So far this season, they're in second place in the American League Central, eight games behind the Royals. They're tied with the Astros for the two American League wild cards, three ahead of Toronto and Baltimore. I still consider the Twins to be the most surprising team in the majors this year, given that they seemed, going into the season, a lock for the American League Central cellar. They're only 3-6 since the All-Star break, though six of those games have been against the two hottest teams in the league, the Angels and Yankees.

What's Going Right? The Twins are seventh in the league in batting average (.258) over the past 30 days, sixth in on base percentage (.316), and sixth in slugging percentage (.417). They strike out a lot (21% of plate appearances, fourth most in the league) and don't hit a lot of home runs (ninth in the league in home run rate). They make up for it by walking a fair amount (7% of plate appearances, seventh most) and hitting lots of doubles and triples (two per game, third most in the league). They've stolen a lot of bases over the past 30 days (16, second to the Royals) but negated it by getting caught stealing too often (nine times, most in the league), resulting in a subpar 64% success rate. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen ERA of 4.25 is the fourth worst in the league over the past 30 days, and, typical of the Twins, they've struck out the fewest batters in the league. They've blown four saves, tied for the third most in the league. The starters have been better--3.86 ERA, seventh best in the league over the past 30 days--with a middle-of-the-pack strikeout rate (ninth highest in the league). Twins pitchers pitch to contact--opposing batters have whiffed on only 19% of their swings over the past 30 days, the fourth lowest rate in the league--but the team defense rates somewhere between average and below average by standard and advanced fielding metrics, meaning that all that contact's resulting in base hits that a better-fielding team might prevent.

Who's Hot? The Twins signed pitcher Ervin Santana to a four-year, $54 million (with a $15 option/$1 million buyout for a fifth year) free agent contract over the winter and he promptly got himself suspended 80 games by testing positive for PEDs. He's back now, and has been pretty good: 2.60 ERA over four starts, though with lousy peripherals (not a lot of strikeouts, too many walks and homers, and an unsustainably low .205 batting average on balls in play). He'll face the Pirates tomorrow. Over the past 30 days, All-Star second baseman Brian Dozier is batting just .221 but he leads the team with six homers and 18 RBI. Rookie Miguel Sano, called up at the beginning of the month, has a team-leading .922 OPS in 18 games at DH. Center fielder Aaron Hicks, a strong defender who's blown hot and cold offensively throughout his career, has been hot over the past 30 days, with a .306/.392/.516 slash line. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe's hit four homers, leads the club with 17 runs scored, and is second in RBI to Dozier. First baseman Joe Mauer's hit .326 over the period.

Who's Not? Closer Glenn Perkins has pitched in nine games over the past 30 days. In seven of them, he's pitched seven innings, allowing no hits and one walk while striking out eight, racking up five saves. But in the other two--two of his last three appearances--he's pitched 1.2 innings, allowing seven hits (including two homers) and five runs, blowing two saves. This presents a problem for the Twins, whose only other relievers who've pitched over seven innings in the past 30 days with an ERA below 4.50 are Brian Duensing (0.00), who doesn't strike out enough batters, Ryan O'Rourke (1.23), who walks too many, and J.R. Graham (3.86), who's been used more as a long relief/mop-up guy than a set-up man. Tonight's Twins starter, Mike Pelfrey, has been terrible over the last 30 days (7.78 ERA in four starts, barely more strikeouts than walks). 

On offense, over the past 30 days, the Twins have gotten almost no production from catcher Kurt Suzuki (.222/.290/.238 slash line), shortstop Danny Santana (.234/.279/.344), and right fielder Torii Hunter (.209/.242/.442). (The league average is .252/.310/.408.)

What's the Outlook? I haven't made any secret of my disdain for Twins management, and it strikes me that the Pirates are catching a team that played over its head for the first half of the season just as the clock's striking midnight, to mix metaphors.

Of Opponents and Kryptonite

Last night, the Pirates played the Minnesota Twins. The teams do not have a long history with one another, as their rivalry is a function of the recent phenomenon of interleague play. In 1997, the Pirates were 1-2 against the Twins. In 1998, they were 2-1. They were 1-2 again in 1999, 2-1 in 2000, and 1-2 in 2001. That was the end of annual series between the clubs. Since then, the Twins swept three games in 2006 and took two of three in 2009. The Pirates were 2-1 in 2012, the last time the two teams played.

So in 24 games spread over 18 seasons, the Pirates were 10-14 against the Twins entering play last night. They've scored 109 runs (4.5 per game) with a .762 OPS and given up 112 runs (4.7 per game) with a 4.22 ERA. 

But last night wasn't just the Pirates playing the Twins, it was Pirates starting pitcher Francisco Liriano facing the first major league team for which he played. He was signed by the San Francisco Giants in 2000 but traded to the Twins after the 2003 season. After six games in Minnesota in 2005, Liriano, then 22, was a sensation as a rookie in 2006. He was named to the All-Star team and at the end of July was 12-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 115 innings. That year Twins pitcher Johan Santana won his second Cy Young Award, but at the end of July, he was just the second-best lefty starter on the club (12-5, 3.11 ERA, 160 strikeouts in 156.1 innings).

Then Liriano missed a start with elbow soreness. He lasted four innings, allowing ten hits and four runs, in a start against Detroit on August 7, then went on the disabled list with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. Even if you don't know the Francisco Liriano story, you can probably guess where this is going. He returned for one start, against Oakland in September. left after two innings, his UCL torn, and had Tommy John surgery. 

Liriano was never the same as a Twin. From 2008 to 2012, he started 110 games, compiling a 37-47 record with a 4.69 ERA. His ERA was 42nd among 48 American League pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that stretch. He was traded to the White Sox at the trade deadline in 2012, became a free agent, and became, in 2013, Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage's latest reclamation project.

Liriano entered play last night with a 2.96 ERA, the 15th best in the league. He had a 1-3 record, but that was a product of lousy run support, as the Bucs had scored just 2.3 runs per 27 outs with Liriano on the mound, the seventh-lowest support in the league.

And he got lit up yesterday. Two innings, five hits (including two homers), two walks, one hit batter, a wild pitch, seven runs, all earned. His ERA went from 2.96 to 4.05 over the course of two innings.

So, is Liriano's first team, the Twins, his Kryptonite*? Does he prove Tom Wolfe's point, that you can't go home anymore**?

Hardly. Small sample size caveats and all that, Liriano faced his former teammates twice after getting traded to Chicago in 2012, and he performed well: 2.77 ERA over 13 innings, during which he allowed just 11 baserunners (five hits, six walks), striking out 17. Among the nine opponents that year against whom he had at least seven innings pitched, he had easily his best ERA and best WHIP against Minnesota. 

So the problem last night was clearly not that he was pressing, seeking some sort of revenge or something against the club that traded him away. The time for that was in 2012, and he dominated his former club.

But this got me thinking: How have the Pirates pitchers fared against their first team? Given the club's propensity for home-grown talent,t he list if short:

• Starter A.J. Burnett: Started with the Marlins, against whom he's 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.459 WHIP (career averages: 3.99, 1.319) in six starts 
• Starter Vance Worley: Started with the Phillies, against whom he's 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 2.250 WHIP (career averages: 3.78, 1.400) in one start
• Reliever Mark Melancon: Started with the Yankees, against whom he has one save, a 4.32 ERA and 0.720 WHIP (career averages: 2.95, 1.112) in six games

And that's it. Every other Pirates pitcher is either home-grown (Cole, Hughes, LaFramboise, Locke, Sadler, Watson), or has never faced his original team (Bastardo [Phillies], Carminero [Marlins], Liz [Orioles], Scahill [Rockies]). 

So tonight, Pirates starter Jeff Locke has no reason to be particularly good or bad against the Twins, as he's spent his entire career with Pittsburgh and has never faced Minnesota. On the other hand, Twins starter Mike Pelfrey, in six appearances against Pittsburgh, has a 3-2 record but a 4.78 ERA and 1.407 WHIP, about in line with his career averages of 4.51 and 1.480, respectively. No Kryptonite-based advantage here.

*The term Kryptonite is commonly misused. It's come to mean a person's weakness, e.g. New York Post, last Nov. 1: "Cold weather is [Peyton] Manning's Kryptonite...exemplified by his 8-11 career record and thoroughly mediocre 82.1 rating in games played in temperatures below 40." True, the otherwise indestructible Superman is vulnerable to Kryptonite, but what makes it different from Peyton Manning's aversion to cold weather is that Kryptonite was formed from exploded pieces of Superman's home planet, Krypton. So the analogy here, to Liriano's original team, is more apt that most that you'll see.

**OK, technically, Liriano's home is the Dominican Republic, not Minnesota, and I imagine he's welcome there.

38, Not Special

The Pirates are now 38 games into their 2015 season. Their record is 18-20. They're tied with the Cincinnati Reds for third in the division, 7.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals and 3.5 behind the Chicago Cubs. They were above .500, 17-16, the morning of May 13, half a game behind the Cubs, but then they lost two in a row to a pretty bad Phillies team and two straight to the Cubs. The problems about which I've written persist:

• They are 13th in the 15-team National League in both on base percentage (.300) and slugging percentage (.366). They're third to last in scoring at 3.8 runs per game because they don't get batters on (.282 on base percentage with the bases empty, 13th in the league). They're nothing special with runners in scoring position (.263 batting average, eighth in the league), but it's the inability to get runners on base in the first place that stands out.
• Measured by park-adjusted OPS, the Pirates are below average at catcher, first base, shortstop, third base, and right field. 
• I'm not ready to say that Andrew McCutchen is fixed. Yes, Pirates center fielders are above average this year, but that's partly because in three games filling in for McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are a combined 7-for-10 with a 1.727 OPS. Yes, McCutchen has a .279/.366/.443 slash line in May after a wretched .194/.302/.333 April, but this is Andrew McCutchen we're talking about here; he hit .318/.406/.505 in his career in May going into the season. As I pointed out a week and a half ago, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote a great breakdown of McCutchen's season, and he noted that McCutchen isn't shifting his weight from his right to left leg during his swing as much as in the past (presumably because of left knee problems), and as a result, he's not hitting with power to left field. That's still pretty much the case. Below, courtesy of Brooks Baseball, is McCutchen's spray chart from May 2014 and May 2015. As you can see, he's still not getting base hits to left field. (The circles are mine.)

• They've been saved by their pitching. Their 3.16 starters' ERA is tied with the Mets for best in the league, and the 3.14 relievers' ERA is sixth. The rotation after A.J. Burnett (prediction: at age 38, he's not going to maintain a 1.38 ERA), Gerrit Cole, and Francisco Liriano has been shaky, and closer Mark Melancon has allowed at least one baserunner in eleven of his 16 one-inning relief appearances, or 69%, compared to a league average of 58%. Overall, though, the pitching's carried the team.
• But the defense has been a disappointment. By one advanced fielding metric (derived from scouts watching every fielding play by every team), Defensive Runs Saved, the Pirates are tenth in the league this year after finishing second in 2013 and fourth last year.

So, all told, it's been a story of weak offense, a lack of performance from the team's superstar, and a strong pitching staff stymied somewhat by a lackluster defense. The result has been the club's 18-20 record after 38 games. In Pittsburgh's long history, this has happened 16 times before. Some of the teams that started 18-20 were bad: the 2008 Pirates were 18-20 after 38 games en route to a 67-95 season, and the 1998 and 2000 clubs, also 18-20 at the start of the season, were only two games better. But the 1979 Pirates started 18-20 as well, and they were world champions. If I were clever, I'd insert a Sister Sledge joke here.

Next Up: The Minnesota Twins

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Twins are 17-11, the third best record in the American League. Picked by many (including me) to be the worst team in their division, and very possibly the league, they're second to the 21-7 Astros as the most surprising team in the league over the past month.

What's Going Right? Their starting pitchers, wretched last year (a cover-your-eyes 5.06 ERA), are seventh in the league in ERA, 3.88, over the past month. After a slow start offensively, the Twins have scored the second-most runs in the league over the past 30 days. They're first in batting average (.275), fifth in on base percentage (.329), and ninth in slugging percentage (.410).

What's Going Wrong? When you see a team with the Twins' batting numbers, you can conclude that they get a lot of singles but not much else. Over the past 30 days, they offense is twelfth in the league with a 7% walk rate and they've hit the fourth-fewest homers. They've scored a lot of runs because of a league-leading .336 batting average on balls in play that's almost certainly unsustainable.

When I wrote my rant about the Twins in February, I complained that their strategy of seeking pitchers who induce contact rather than pitchers who get strikeouts is out of sync with contemporary baseball. They're last in the league, by far, in strikeout percentage (14% of batters faced; the league average is nearly 20%).

The bullpen ERA over the past 30 days is 4.14, fourth worst in the American League. 

Who's Hot? Second baseman Brian Dozier (.276/.376/.524 slash line), third baseman Trevor Plouffe (.295/.374/.453) and right fielder Torii Hunter (.294/.342/.529, six home runs) have been the offensive stars over the past 30 days. Starters Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey have combined for a 2.42 ERA over eleven starts, though with a strikeout rate so low (7.6% of batters faced) that it seems unsustainable. Closer Glenn Perkins is 11-for-11 in save attempts with a 1.42 ERA over the past month.

Who's Not? Nobody on offense really stinks of late, though the Twins have gotten a lack of sock from the traditional power positions of DH (primarily Kennys Vargas, two home runs) and first base (primarily Joe Mauer, none). Over the past 30 days, Perkins, Ryan Pressly, and Blaine Boyer have combined for a 1.22 ERA over 37 innings. The rest of the bullpen has a 6.30 ERA over 50 innings. 

What's the Outlook? You could probably tell from the tone of this that I don't expect the Twins to remain this good. The two-game series with the Twins at PNC Park starting tomorrow could be an opportunity for the Pirates to recover from their recent 1-4 run as they prepare to host another surprisingly good team, the Mets, over the weekend.

The Undefeated Detroit Tigers

After compiling a 2-4 road record against, in all likelihood, the two worst teams in the National League Central, the Pirates play their home opener today against the Detroit Tigers, one of two undefeated teams so far. The other, the Kansas City Royals, are in the Tigers' division, so the two teams are tied for first in the American League Central at 6-0. The Tigers, however, lead the majors in run scored, with 47, and run differential, scoring 31 more than their opponents. They pace the majors in batting average (.355) AND on base percentage (.433) AND slugging percentage (.550), and they're second to the Atlanta Braves in ERA (2.00). They've started the season well, obviously.

This illustrates my gripe with interleague play. It's necessary now, because each league has 15 teams, so in order to have every team active, there has to be at least one interleague game everyday. Fine. I'm not crazy with how baseball did well throughout the 20th century with the two leagues not meeting outside of the All-Star Game and the World Series, but whatever. It doesn't spoil the game for me, even though every year it foments a new round of the same DH arguments we've heard for 40+ years. 

The problem is that the schedule's not balanced. Everybody plays 20 games agaisnt the other league, but they don't play the same teams. In the Central, the Pirates play six games against the Tigers, the defending divisional champion. That's the most in the National League Central. The Cubs and Reds play the Tigers just four times, the Brewers and Cardinals three times. The Brewers get six games against the woeful Minnesota Twins, compared to four for the Cardinals and Pirates and three for the Cubs and Reds. Here are the weighted won-lost records of each National League Central team's American League opponents this year:

• .511 Reds
• .504 Pirates
• .503 Cardinals
• .498 Cubs
• .495 Brewers

Granted, those aren't huge differences--over 162 games, the Reds' average opponent would be 83-79, while the Brewers' would be 80-82--but why should there be a difference at all? And I'm not factoring in home-and-away games. For example, the Cardinals have three games against the Tigers, who won 90 games last year and are 6-0 this year, at home and none on the road. The Pirates have three games against the Royals, who won 89 games last year and are 6-0 this year, on the road and none at home. If I tweak the weighted won-lost records by home/road splits, using the overall average that home teams win 54% of games, I get this:

• .511 Reds
• .505 Pirates
• .503 Cardinals
• .497 Cubs
• .497 Brewers 

Again, not huge differences, but one game could be the difference between first place and a wild card, or a wild card and going home. If we're going to have interleague play, shouldn't it be balanced? Four games, two home and two away, against each opponent in the other league would do it. As is, we could get pennant races decided by the schedule instead of the players. And it's worth emphasizing that the Pirates play a tougher interleague schedule than any team in their division other than the Reds.

There's a reason for the unbalanced interleague schedule. It allows for six games--three home, three away--between natural interleague rivals, like Mets/Yankees and Dodgers/Angels. That, of course, limits the number of games with other teams. In the National League Central, there are six games between the Cubs and White Sox for supremacy of Chicago, six games between the Cardinals and Royals for supremacy of Missouri, six between the Reds and Indians for supremacy of Ohio, and six between the Brewers and Twins for supremacy of States You'd Best Avoid In The Winter. For the Pirates, though, their natural rival is probably cross-state Philadelphia, which is already in the National League. So instead...Hey, let's replay the 1909 World Series, every year! Pirates beat the Tigers, four games to three! Honus* outshines Ty! Unfortunately, 106 years later, the Pirates are stuck playing six games against a team that's won its division five straight times.

*The Honus Wagner/Ty Cobb thing was the big story of the series, as the Pirates shortstop and the Tigers right fielder were their respective leagues' big stars (and batting champions). Wagner, 35, easily outhit Cobb in the Series, batting .333 with a .967 OPS, compared to the 22-year-old Cobb's .231/.656. And please, don't say Honus as in bonus. It's pronounced hah-niss, like..um...hah-niss.

Twins Trouble

It seems like a generation ago, but the Twins were sort of a model franchise in the recent past. Between 2002 and 2010, the team won the American League Central six times in nine years, with a losing record only once (and that year, 2007, they were 79-83, which isn't that bad). They achieved this success despite being a small-market team with a payroll that ranked in the top half of the league only twice during that nine-year span. 

In the four seasons since then, they've lost 99, 96, 96, and 92 games. The latter record, which landed the Twins in last in the division for the third time in four years, cost manager Ron Gardenhire his job. The Twins enter 2015 with Paul Molitor, St. Paul native and Hall of Famer, at the helm. He's never managed before, but he was the Twins' minor league baserunning and and infield coordinator in 2003 and 2005-2013 (he was Seattle's hitting coach in 2004) and was a coach for the major league team last year.

What's gone wrong? Here's a chart showing the team's rank in OPS+ (that's on base percentage plus slugging, adjusted for home park) and ERA+ (similarly adjusted earned run average) over the past thirteen years. Keep in mind that there were 14 teams in the American League until 2013, when the Astros switched leagues. In the Twins' last pennant season, 2010, represented by the horizontal line below, they were second in OPS+ and sixth in ERA+. They haven't come close to those levels since:

The rankings have bounced around, but what stands out is the collapse of the Twins' pitching beginning in 2011. They've finished second to last, second to last, fourth to last, and last in park-adjusted ERA since their last playoff appearance. The offense hasn't been great, but the problem's been an inability to prevent runs, not to score them.

So what's gone wrong with run prevention? Well, you know how fans and commentators are upset about risking strikeout rates? Say what you will about the team, the Twins pitchers have stayed clear of that controversy. Here's the team's strikeout rate (percentage of batters struck out) for its starters compared to league averages:

Again, the solid line corresponds to the Twins' last pennant. As you can see, after hovering around league averages, the Twins' starters' strikeout rates have plummeted. They improved some last year--welcome the the Twin Cities, Phil Hughes!--but they're still way below average. 

How about the relievers? Same thing:

This, I think, explains a lot of why the Twins have run into trouble. Their pitchers don't miss bats. In the modern game, that's important. For the 30 major league teams last year, the correlation coefficient between strikeout rate and park-adjusted ERA is 0.60, which means that strikeouts are a significant component of run prevention. The more batters you strike out, the fewer runs you allow. The Twins aren't striking out enough batters to have an effective pitching staff. 

Gardenhire's pitching coach, Rick Anderson, wanted Twins hurlers to "pitch to contact and trust your defense, throw strikes and minimize walks to pitch deep into games." Pitching to contact means trying to induce batted balls rather than strikeouts. That's at odds with the trend of rising strikeouts, but I don't think you can assign all the blame on Anderson. As the charts above illustrate, Twins pitchers apparently didn't listen to him much during the Twins' winning years under Gardenhire; the team's strikeout rates weren't out of line with league averages. The Twins' collapse in the standings has corresponded to a collapse in team strikeout rates. That's not a product of just what's going on at the major league level, it's a reflection of an organizational philosophy that has guided both drafting and player development. Twins pitchers don't strike guys out because, well, that's not what they do. The problem is, it simply isn't the way you win ballgames.

In a somewhat notorious case, Gardenhire and Anderson tried to convince pitcher Francisco Liriano to pitch to contact. Liriano was a sensation as a rookie in 2006, going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA (less than half the league average of 4.56) and striking out 30% of the batters he faced. Unfortunately, that season ended early for him, when Liriano blew out his ulnar collateral ligament, and he missed 2007 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He pitched only 76 innings in 2008 and was shaky in 2009, going 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. He had a pretty good year in 2010, though (14-10, 3.62 ERA) and his strikeout rate rose from around 20% in 2008-9 to 25% in 2010. Yet at the beginning of the 2011 season, Gardenhire and Anderson had their talk with Liriano, who responded with a 9-10, 5.09 ERA record as his strikeout rate fell to 19%, the lowest of his career. The Twins gave up on him in 2012, trading him in the middle of a 6-12, 5.34 ERA season to the White Sox in July. He's had a career renaissance since signing with the Pirates before the 2013 season: 23-18, 3.20 ERA, 25% strikeout rate over the past few seasons.

Now, it's not entirely fair to blame Liriano's problems with the Twins, nor his success with Pittsburgh, on the Twins' pitching to contact philosophy. It's true that he had his worst year, from a strikeout perspective, in 2011, after he got Gardenhire and Anderson's pitch-to-contact lecture, but his 24.9% strikeout rate with the Pirates in 2013-14, when he's been good, isn't that much different from his 24.1% strikeout rate with the Twins and White Sox in 2012, when he stunk. As I've written, his turnaround in Pittsburgh is largely due to an overhaul of his pitch selection, junking his fastball in favor of a sinker that generates lots of ground balls. Those grounders get gobbled up by Pittsburgh's infielders, who have aggressively employed shifts in order to position themselves where the ball's likely to be hit, as I wrote in 2013. As the article to which I linked pointed out:

Shifts are only as effective as the number of groundballs hit into them. The second prong of the Pirates' comprehensive run prevention strategy was tied to increasing their pitchers' groundball rates. Defensive change began on the mound. 

So that's how pitching to contact can work: Get the pitchers to generate grounders, assemble a strong defense, and shift the infielders a lot. It's worked for Pittsburgh. How about Minnesota?

If anything, the Twins have gone the other way. Twins pitchers yielded ground balls on 42% of batted balls last year, 12th in the 15-team American League. They were eighth in 2013, 5th in 2012, and eighth in 2011, so they've gotten worse. Not only don't they have pitchers who generate strikeouts, they don't have pitchers who generate grounders. Again, that's an organizational thing, not just a major league level thing.

How about employing defensive shifts? The Twins shifted 85 times in 2013, second fewest in the league. They increased to 478 shifts in 2014, but that moved them up to only 12th in the league. The average American League team shifted 590 times. So they haven't employed shifts, which, as I pointed out, decrease opponents' batting averages on ground balls and soft liners by 30 points, as much as other teams.

As for defense, I looked at the team's defensive efficiency ratio, or DER. DER is a calculation of the percentage of balls in play that get turned into outs. It's useful because it looks that the defensive performance of the entire team. During the Twins' successful run from 2002 to 2010, they ranked eighth or better in the American League every season except 2009. In other words, they were pretty consistently at or, more often, above average. Since then, they've been 13th in 2011, 13th in 2012, 12th in 2013, and 15th in 2014. 

So let's put it together: The Twins have emphasized a pitching philosophy, pitching to contact, that's of questionable merit in a strikeout-driven environment. The three tenets of pitching to contact are ground balls, defensive shifts, and fielding. The Twins don't generate ground balls, they don't shift, and the defense stinks.

This isn't a matter of a manager or a pitching coach. The Twins have been building the wrong kind of team. They've botched drafting, player development, and/or roster construction, resulting in a team that's not positioned for success. General manager Terry Ryan, who held the position from 1994 until after the 2007 season, and again beginning in November 2011, and Bill Smith, who was the team's GM in the interim four years, bear the blame for creating a roster of pitchers who can't miss bats and fielders who can't catch balls. They appear to have been way late to the game of using advanced metrics to position Twins fielders in order to increase outs. It's true that the Twins have a highly-regarded farm system--ESPN's Keith Law ranks them second in baseball--but their two top prospects played only 31 games between them in injury-riddled 2014 seasons. They've been bad for four years because the manager's been given a team that has the wrong type of players for contemporary baseball.

But by all means, blame Gardy. Gotta be his fault, right?

Torii Hunter and Mortality

The Twins signed former Tigers (and, prior to that, Angels and, more significantly, Twins) outfielder Torii Hunter to a one-year contract. Hunter, who'll turn 40 next July, signed for $10.5 million in what is pretty clearly a homecoming/last hurrah/mentoring kind of season for him.

His first press conference after signing the contract was, well, interesting.

• He called a reporter who asked a question about gay marriage, to which Hunter has expressed opposition, a "prick." (Feel free to insert the phrase for some reason as many times as you want in that sentence.)
• When asked about how modern fielding metrics grade him as a poor outfielder defensively, he replied, "Whoever believes in that sabermetrics stuff never played the game."
• He continued, in discussing his defense, "I've dropped off--I'm older--but not much...I might be just a little bit above normal."

Joe Posnanski of NBC Sports wrote a great piece about that last comment. Here's a link to the article. He talks about Hunter, but what he's really talking about is getting old. Referring to Hunter's "I might be just a little bit above normal" line, he writes

There's something else in there, something sort of sweet and vulnerable and emotional, even if Torii Hunter himself doesn't realize it. It's damned hard to grow old in baseball. Or, if you prefer, it's just damned hard to grow old.

Posnanski points out that pretty much every superstar was pretty bad at the end of his career. They spent a lifetime learning about the game, expanding their knowledge, but in the end, the body just can't do it anymore, even if the mind thinks it can. Everybody over the age of 30 who's engaged in a physical activity knows what I'm talking about. But stop reading my take, and click on the link to Posnanski's article. Thankfully, his writing skills didn't peak when Hunter's defense did.

The Most Hopeless Teams of 2014

From the 2015 Bill James Handbook: Teams that didn't spend a single day in first place in 2014

• Astros
• Cubs
• Diamondbacks
• Mets
• Reds
• Rockies
• Twins

If we also include teams that didn't ever have first place to themselves (the best they could do was tie for first), add the Indians, Padres, Phillies, and White Sox.

Not that that's necessarily a measure of hopelessness, though it pretty much was for the teams in question: Cleveland finished three games behind Oakland for the second American League wild card.

Speaking of Oakland, here are the teams that spent the most days in first place:

• Tigers, 153 days: Lost Divisional Series 
• Brewers, 150 days: Missed the postseason, six games behind the second wild card
• Athletics, 129 days: Lost Wild Card

Flyover: Minnesota Twins

When I started this series last month, my intent was to review each team's performance over the past 30 days, alphabetically. I got through Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, the Cubs, and Cleveland before I realized that I was going to run out of time and that it'd be more timely to focus on the teams that are in contention for postseason play. That's what I've done next, hopscotching among the Tigers, Brewers, A's, Angels, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants. Let's take a day off from good teams, though, and instead discuss one of the most interesting teams of the year: The Minnesota Twins.

How Are They Doing Lately? Terrible. The Twins are 8-19 over the last 30 days, the worst record in the American League, and tied with the Diamondbacks for the worst record in the league. That's a 114-loss pace over a full season.

So why write about them? Well, put it this way: After the Tommy John surgery epidemic, replay, and that Yankee shortstop retiring, what's the biggest story this year? The decline of offense. Teams are scoring an average of 4.08 runs per game this year. That's the lowest average since 1980. and a run per game down from the highs of 1999 (5.08) and 2000 (5.14). 

Take the American League. Since the All-Star Game, American League games are featuring 8.05 runs per game, scoring 4.06 runs and allowing 3.99. (The discrepancy is due to interleague games.) But if you exclude the Twins from the total, that figure drops to 7.91 runs per game, 4.03 scored and 3.88 allowed. Twins games have featured 10.02 runs! How's this: The last time the American League averaged less than eight runs per game, as it's done excluding the Twins since the All-Star break, it was 1972, and the league responded by instituting the designated hitter. The last time the league averaged 10.02 runs per game, as the Twins have since the All-Star break, the league batted .276 and Pedro Martinez was the only pitcher with an ERA below 3.70; this year the Tigers are the only team batting above .276 (by .001), the league ERA is 3.83, and there are 24 pitchers with ERAs below 3.70. The Twins have been a throwback to the Steroid Era!

Actually, the pitchers have been more throwbacks than the hitters of late. Over the past 30 days, the Twins are scoring 4.3 runs per game, fifth in the league, while giving up 6.1. No other team has allowed more than 4.7 runs per game.

What's Going Right? The Twins are batting .263 over the past 30 days, fourth in the league, with a fifth-best .399 slugging percentage and a sixth-best .316 on base percentage. Their .329 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .297, indicates that they've probably been a little lucky, since wide deviations don't usually persist. They strike out a lot (23% of plate appearances, third in the league), but their walk rate, 6.8% of plate appearances, isn't much off from the league average of 7.2%. sixth;hey'be been good at getting on base (.284 batting average, .336 on base percentage, both second in the league) over the past 30 days. Their .421 slugging percentage is fifth, as they've hit only 20 homers, which is tenth in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play is .330 compared to a league average of .303, suggesting that their batting average and on base percentage have been a little lucky, but only 7.5% of their fly balls have gone over the fence compared to a league average of 9.6%, suggesting that their slugging percentage and home run totals have been a little unlucky. The Giants have been the toughest team in the NL to fan, striking out in only 17% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 21%. They've had problems with their bullpen, as I'll explain below, but the starters have been best in the league at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (33%), they've struck out the most batters (23% of batters), and walked the fourth fewest (6%).

What's Going Wrong? The Twins pitchers have been remarkably consistent over the past 30 days: 5.78 ERA overall, worst in the league; 5.78 starters' ERA, worst in the league; 5.77 relievers' ERA, worst in the league. You know the On The Field Of Play pitching mantra, It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes? As it turns out, the Twins have been pretty good at throwing strikes (51% of pitches in the strikes zone, third most in the league) and getting strikes (batters swinging at 32% of pitches outside the striek zone, fourth highest in the league). So why haven't they been successful? Because the pitches they've thrown, inside and outside the strike zone, have been hittable. Twins pitchers have the third-slowest fastball in the league (91.6 mph average), the third-slowest slider (83.0 mph average). They've allowed the highest batting average on balls in play (.334, league average is .293), the second highest percentage of fly balls going over the fence (11.7%, league average is 9.2%), and the most baserunners to score (35%, league average is 27%). Those three figures, widely different from the league averages, probably indicate some bad luck, but that's not all of it. You throw hittable pitches, you get hit.

This shouldn't be blamed exclusively on the pitchers, though. The Twins fielders have converted 67% of balls in play into outs this year, the lowest percentage in the league, and the team does poorly in advanced defensive measures. 

Who's Hot? The Twins have managed to compile those awful pitching numbers despite having Phil Hughes, who'll get a few Cy Young Award votes. Over the past 30 days, he has a 3.44 ERA to go with 33 strikeouts and just one walk over 36.2 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 11.3, which is the highest in baseball history, topping Brett Saberhagen's 11.0 in 1994 and Cliff Lee's 10.3 in 2010. (h/t: D.J. Short at Hardball Talk) He's making me look smart when I wrote in December

Hughes isn't an elite pitcher. But he's probably better than what he was last year, and the move out of the Bronx should help him keep more balls in the park. By the end of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers were better than league average.

Actually, that isn't all that smart, because he's been a lot better than league average, 21st in ERA, eighth in WHIP, and a 15-10 record for a team that's won 61% of the games that he's started (99-63 pace) but only 38% of games started by others (61-101 pace). 

The Twins also acquired Ricky Nolasco over the winter, and while he's been OK over the past 30 days (3.93 ERA), he's been a disappointment, going 5-12 with a 4.29 ERA, making me look not-so-smart when I wrote back in November

I'd expect an average or slightly better-than-average ERA and 200 or so innings, but nothing spectacular.

The league ERA 3.83 and Nolasco's pitched 153 innings.

No hitter has been really outstanding, though rookie centerfielder Danny Santana has hit .290 and is seven-for-eight as a basestealer over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Rather than name names, let's just say that Twins starters not named Hughes or Nolasco have an 8.00 ERA over the past 30 days, giving up more homers in their 77.2 innings pitched (16) than the Indians (15), Padres (15), Rangers (13), Royals (12), Braves (11), and Diamondbacks (11) have hit. No reliever has been particularly good, and closer Glen Perkins had more blown saves (three) than saves (two) and more than twice as many home runs allowed (five) than strikeouts (two) to go with a 12.27 ERA before revealing a season-ending nerve injury. 

Rookie DH Kennys Vargas leads the team with five homers and 15 RBI over the past 30 days, but otherwise has looked kind of lost at the plate, striking out in 29% of his plate appearances (the league average is less than 21%) and failing to draw a single walk. Rookie right fielder Oswaldo Arcia is batting .228 with an even higher strikeout rate than Vargas's, 32%. 
  
What's the Outlook? You'll note that every hitter I mentioned is a rookie. The Twins also have two of the most highly-rated prospects in the game, consensus No. 1 Byron Buxton, an outfielder, and third baseman Miguel Sano. Sano is 21 and Buxton's 20, and they both missed all (Sano) or almost all (Buxton) of the 2014 season with injuries, so they won't be headed up to Minnesota until sometime next year at the earliest. But there are bats on the way.

The pitching this year has been terrible, of course, but there are plenty of young arms in the farm as well. I could see the Twins being an exciting team at the plate in coming years, but my jury's still out on the pitching staff. The Twins have had a pitch-to-contact focus in recent years, while the rest of the league's gone for strikeouts. The idea is that the Twins's approach holds down pitch counts, preserving pitchers' arms, and lets the players in the field turn batted balls into outs. Well, it hasn't worked. The fielders aren't that great, and the Twins will finish the season with by far the lowest strikeout rate in the league (16.5% of plate appearances, league average is 20.1%). They were last, by far, in 2013, 2012, and 2011 as well. They weren't in 2010, which is also the last time they played in the postseason. I've heard Twins fans called for manager Ron Gardenhire's head, as this will be the team's third last place finish in the past four years, but it seems to me that someone in player development--specifically, pitcher development--is more to blame. The Twins aren't drafting, or aren't developing, or both, the type of pitchers who are successful in contemporary baseball. The Twins have used 23 pitchers this year, and the only ones with above-average strikeout rates are Hughes, Perkins, and 27-year-old rookie Aaron Thompson, who's pitched only 6.1 innings. Until the Twins embrace Ks for their hurlers, it's hard to see them competing, even in the generally weak American League Central. But their efforts to single-handedly keep run production across the league alive, I suppose, is admirable.

Sweet Play of the Day - May 27

Aaron Hicks may be having his struggles at the plate for the Twins, but he has this playing center field thing down. 

Sweet Play of the Day - May 5

They're at it again. Brian Dozier and Kyle Gibson, for the second time in a week, brought new excitement to the second-to-first 4-1 putout.

Sweet Play of the Day - April 30

The Dodgers drew first blood in the long-awaited replay of the 1965 World Series in Minnesota yesterday (44 degrees, 12 mph wind at gametime) but not before the Twins got a nifty putout at first on a heads-up play by second baseman Brian Dozier.

Last Night's Sweet Play

Tampa Bay's Desmond Jennings takes away extra bases from the Twins' Trevor Plouffe.

2014 Predictions: AL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions.  Here's the National League West, Central, and East, along with the American League West and East. 

Detroit Tigers - 96-66 in 2013, 4.9 runs scored per game (2nd in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): They've still got Miguel Cabrera and those starting pitchers, they've added a strong closer in Joe Nathan, but the injury bug has bit LF Don Kelly and SS Jose Iglesias. Their hitters are the second-oldest int he league, so time's running out on this team to win a World Series. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 91-71.

Cleveland Indians - 92-70, 4.6 runs scored per game (6th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (14th in MLB): After the Pirates, the Indians were the happy-story team of 2013. But they lost SPs Ubaldo Jiminez and Scott Kazmir via free agency (those two combined for 37% of the team's starting pitcher innings) and didn't add a lot. I could see them regressing a lot. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed,  84-78.

Kansas City Royals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (18th in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (6th in MLB): The Royals continue their quest to end the longest postseason drought in American sports today. SP James Shields is a free agent after this year, LF Alex Gordon is 30, and the bullpen's best-in-the-league 2.55 ERA last year probably isn't sustainable, so the clock's ticking. But the club addressed weaknesses at 2B and RF, adding Omar Infante and Norichika Aoki, and has one of baseball's most exciting rookies, hard-throwing hurler Yordano Ventura. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 89-73.

Minnesota Twins - 66-96, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.9 runs allowed per game (29th in MLB): The Twins' starters were historically bad last year, which is why the addition of OK-but-not-great Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes via free agency is a big upgrade. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the Twins offense, and stud slugging prospect Miguel Sano is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 69-93.

Chicago White Sox - 63-99, 3.7 runs scored per game (29th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (23rd in MLB): The White Sox's Cuban import, 1B Jose Abreu, could provide pop that was lacking last year. Fangraphs projects him to be 33%-40% above league average, with power and good on-base skills. CF Adam Eaton, acquired by trade, is a formerly highly-regarded prospect looking to improve from a change of scenery. This is team with an offense that's the analogue to the Twins' pitching - can't help but get better. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 68-94.

Things I Didn't Know: AL Central

In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.

I started with the National League (here, here, and here). Already hit the AL West, so now it's the Central.

Detroit Tigers, 93-69: Want to know why the Tigers were so eager to sign 39-year-old former Rangers closer Joe Nathan to a free agent contract back in December? No team in baseball had a larger differential between ERAs for starters (3.44) and relievers (4.01). For most teams, the bullpen had a lower ERA than the starters. Nathan has a career ERA of 2.14 since joining the AL in 2003.

One more Tigers fun fact: In limited opportunities (i.e., interleague play), Tigers pitchers had a .222/.300/.278 slash line, equal to a .578 OPS. A .578 OPS is better than White Sox catchers, Blue Jays second basemen, and Royals shortstops last year.

Cleveland Indians, 92-70: Cleveland feasted on lefties, going 36-20 against them. Their .643 winning percentage against southpaws was the best in the league. They had problems against righties, compiling just a .528 winning percentage. The .115 differential was the most in the league. It's unusual for a team to do better against lefties than righties (only four AL teams did), and Cleveland was helped by three switch hitters in the lineup. They team was also helped by playing in the same division as the White Sox, against whom the Indians had a 17-2 record, the best head-to-head record in baseball.

Kansas City Royals, 86-76: Royals cleanup hitters (mostly Billy Butler) had 11 home runs and 72 RBI last year. Both the Indians and Red Sox got more homers and RBI from their number 8 hitters. Not a lot of cleaning up in KC last year.

Minnesota Twins, 66-96: OK, I'm calling this series Things I Didn't Know, but I did know this one, as I discussed it in December: Twins relievers had more strikeouts last year than Twins starters. I'm repeating it because it's so crazy. It's never happened before, and as I said, it's not because the Twins relievers are all flamethrowers: their strikeouts per nine innings ranked 23rd among the 30 major league bullpen. It's a reflection about how amazingly bad the Twins starters (their 5.26 ERA was the worst in the majors by almost half a run) were. 

Chicago White Sox, 63-99: When you play in a hitter's park, you wind up with inflated hitting statistics. US Cellular Field is a hitter's park. Yet the White Sox scored only 598 runs last year, the fewest in the American League, and the fewest for the franchise since 1980. Of the players ending the year on Chicago's roster, only first baseman Paul Konerko, DH Adam Dunn, utility infielder Jeff Keppinger, and middle reliever Matt Lindstrom were even born the last time the Sox had fewer than 600 runs scored.

Waiting for Replay, Who Knows How Long

Major League Baseball has finalized its rules for replay in the coming season. As someone who still bears the psychological scars of Phil Cuzzi's call in the 2009 ALDS, I kind of don't understand the opposition to replay. But I heard plenty this morning from Jim Memolo on Sirius XM's MLB First Pitch. He had a bunch of objections (including the lack of a challenge flag--please, this is baseball, not the NFL), but the most credible to me is that challenges will slow down the game, break the pitchers' rhythm, make fans lose interest, etc.

That's his opinion. Mine is that the way it's being done (calls reviewed by an umpire at MLB Advanced Media in New York) will minimize delays. But they're both opinions. So I propose this: By August, it's reasonable to think the kinks will be worked out of the system. In August 2013, the average nine-inning game took 180.4 minutes to complete. (Thanks, Retrosheet!) My call is that that average will not move meaningfully in August 2014. We'll see. Look for an update around Labor Day.

Let's Hear It For the Minnesota Twins Bullpen

Last year, starting pitchers pitched 65.7% of innings and recorded 62.5% of strikeouts. The reason they got proportionately fewer strikeouts is that there are a lot of relievers who come in for one inning throwing as hard as they can. But overall, starters pitch the most innings and get the most strikeouts. 

With one glaring exception: The Minnesota Twins. The Twins relievers got more strikeouts than Twins starters. (I heard this on a Fangraphs podcast.) That's partly because Twins starters pitched only 60.1% of the team's innings, the fewest in the majors. Still, a normal spread between starters and relievers would result in Twins starters getting 56.9% of the team's strikeouts. Instead, they got only 48.4%. The second-lowest was Colorado, with 55.5%. I don't know whether there's ever been a team before whose bullpen got more strikeouts than its starters. I kind of doubt it.

Twins relievers weren't exactly flamethrowers, as their 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings ranked 23rd in the majors. But the Twins starters got only 4.9, more than a strikeout per nine innings worse than the second-worst team, again the Rockies. Twins starters had the lowest strikeout rate of any team since the 2006 Royals.

The Twins have stressed a "pitch to contact" pitching philosophy in recent years. They've certainly delivered on the low strikeout part. But given the team's worst-in-the-majors-by-far 5.26 starters' ERA, they've either got the wrong approach or the wrong personnel (probably some of both). It makes for an easy comparison for incoming starters Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, though.

Twins Fans, Meet Ricky Nolasco

The Twins have signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million contract, the largest in team history. Twins fans may be unfamiliar with a pitcher who's toiled for fairly anonymous Marlins teams most of his career. Here's what you need to know.

What's Good About Him? A few things:

• He was pretty good last year: 13-11, 3.70 ERA split between the Marlins and the Dodgers.
• He's durable. Over the past six seasons, he's started 186 games, which ties him for 19th among all pitchers.
• By some key measures, he's been pretty effective. He's struck out 17.1% of the batters he's faced over the past three seasons, walked 5.4%, and allowed homers to 2.2%. Last year the Twins' ratios were 15.7%, 7.3%, and 2.7%. So he's likely to get more strikeouts and allow fewer walks and homers than the typical Twins pitcher last year (granted, a low bar).

What's Not So Good About Him? Over the past three seasons, there have been only eight pitchers with 475+ innings who walked fewer than 2.2 batters per nine innings, struck out 6.6 or more, and gave up fewer then 0.9 homers. Here they are:

Player	ERA	BB/9	SO/9	HR/9	BAbip	IP	GS	W	L	H	R	ER	BB	SO
Clayton Kershaw	2.21	2.18	9.15	0.54	.266	697.0	99	51	23	508	191	171	169	709
Jered Weaver	2.77	2.15	7.11	0.89	.253	578.2	87	49	21	468	186	178	138	457
Cliff Lee	2.80	1.38	9.01	0.89	.298	666.1	93	37	25	597	222	207	102	667
Jordan Zimmermann	3.12	1.80	6.91	0.77	.287	570.1	90	39	28	532	212	198	114	438
David Price	3.13	2.16	8.31	0.78	.289	622.0	92	42	26	543	234	216	149	574
Cole Hamels	3.15	2.02	8.46	0.88	.285	651.1	95	39	29	564	242	228	146	612
Doug Fister	3.30	1.81	6.78	0.61	.301	586.2	89	35	32	578	240	215	118	442
Ricky Nolasco	4.29	2.07	6.61	0.83	.321	596.1	97	35	36	653	307	284	137	438

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 11/29/2013.

Do you see the problem? Those are six All-Stars, a solid if unheralded pitcher in Fister...plus Ricky Nolasco. His ERA is almost a full run higher than everybody else's. More than two runs higher than Kershaw's.

Note that I added a column, BAbip. That's batting average on balls in play: how he does on at-bats that don't end in a strikeout or homer. Nolasco's .321 is the worst on the list. It's also worse than the NL average of .297. So while Nolasco does a good job keeping the ball in the park and avoiding free passes, when batters make non-homer contact, they get hits off him. That's why he's had such a lackluster ERA.

So What Should Twins Fans Expect? Nolasco has given up too many hits (9.9 per nine innings over the past three years, 1.2 more than the NL average) and runs to be a top pitcher, negating his fine control and anti-homer skills. Having strong up-the-middle defense should help him some, though he doesn't get an above-average number of ground balls that the double play combo of Florimon and Dozier will turn into outs, nor fly balls that Aaron Hicks will chase down. I'd expect an average or slightly better-than-average ERA and 200 or so innings, but nothing spectacular.

For a more detailed analysis, check out Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman's take.