Showing posts with label Jeff Locke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Locke. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Thirty Innings, No Runs

The Pirates have not allowed any runs in their past 30 innings pitched, a streak spanning four games, three of them shutouts. Yes, it's been against the Phillies and White Sox, who aren't a modern-day Murderers' Row. But this is tied for the fifth longest scoreless streak in Pirates history:

  1. 45 innings: July 29, 1931, fourth inning - August 8, 1931, fifth inning
  2. 36 innings: May 17, 1972, first inning - May 21, 1972, ninth inning
  3. 35 innings: May 28, 1971, seventh inning - June 2, 1971, fifth inning
  4. 33 innings: August 1, 1958, first inning - August 3, 1958, second game, sixth inning
  5. 30 innings: September 29, 1976, seventh inning - October 3, 1976, ninth inning
  6. 30 innings: June 13, 2015, ninth inning - June 16, 2015 ninth inning (and counting)
  7. 29 innings: September 12, 1933, first inning - September 15, 1933, second inning
(streaks identified by Baseball-Reference's Play Index)

Jeff Locke will try to keep it going against the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field tonight. He's an unlikely candidate to keep a scoreless streak alive, with a 4.90 ERA and at least one run allowed in ten of his twelve starts this year. But he's allowed no runs in two of last four starts (5.2 innings pitched in a 5-1 win against Miami on May 26, 6.0 innings pitched in a 1-0 win over Philadelphia on June 12), and the White Sox have scored the second-fewest runs per game (3.5) in the American League so far this year, so who knows? 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Of Opponents and Kryptonite

Last night, the Pirates played the Minnesota Twins. The teams do not have a long history with one another, as their rivalry is a function of the recent phenomenon of interleague play. In 1997, the Pirates were 1-2 against the Twins. In 1998, they were 2-1. They were 1-2 again in 1999, 2-1 in 2000, and 1-2 in 2001. That was the end of annual series between the clubs. Since then, the Twins swept three games in 2006 and took two of three in 2009. The Pirates were 2-1 in 2012, the last time the two teams played.

So in 24 games spread over 18 seasons, the Pirates were 10-14 against the Twins entering play last night. They've scored 109 runs (4.5 per game) with a .762 OPS and given up 112 runs (4.7 per game) with a 4.22 ERA. 

But last night wasn't just the Pirates playing the Twins, it was Pirates starting pitcher Francisco Liriano facing the first major league team for which he played. He was signed by the San Francisco Giants in 2000 but traded to the Twins after the 2003 season. After six games in Minnesota in 2005, Liriano, then 22, was a sensation as a rookie in 2006. He was named to the All-Star team and at the end of July was 12-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 115 innings. That year Twins pitcher Johan Santana won his second Cy Young Award, but at the end of July, he was just the second-best lefty starter on the club (12-5, 3.11 ERA, 160 strikeouts in 156.1 innings).

Then Liriano missed a start with elbow soreness. He lasted four innings, allowing ten hits and four runs, in a start against Detroit on August 7, then went on the disabled list with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. Even if you don't know the Francisco Liriano story, you can probably guess where this is going. He returned for one start, against Oakland in September. left after two innings, his UCL torn, and had Tommy John surgery. 

Liriano was never the same as a Twin. From 2008 to 2012, he started 110 games, compiling a 37-47 record with a 4.69 ERA. His ERA was 42nd among 48 American League pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that stretch. He was traded to the White Sox at the trade deadline in 2012, became a free agent, and became, in 2013, Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage's latest reclamation project.

Liriano entered play last night with a 2.96 ERA, the 15th best in the league. He had a 1-3 record, but that was a product of lousy run support, as the Bucs had scored just 2.3 runs per 27 outs with Liriano on the mound, the seventh-lowest support in the league.

And he got lit up yesterday. Two innings, five hits (including two homers), two walks, one hit batter, a wild pitch, seven runs, all earned. His ERA went from 2.96 to 4.05 over the course of two innings.

So, is Liriano's first team, the Twins, his Kryptonite*? Does he prove Tom Wolfe's point, that you can't go home anymore**?

Hardly. Small sample size caveats and all that, Liriano faced his former teammates twice after getting traded to Chicago in 2012, and he performed well: 2.77 ERA over 13 innings, during which he allowed just 11 baserunners (five hits, six walks), striking out 17. Among the nine opponents that year against whom he had at least seven innings pitched, he had easily his best ERA and best WHIP against Minnesota. 

So the problem last night was clearly not that he was pressing, seeking some sort of revenge or something against the club that traded him away. The time for that was in 2012, and he dominated his former club.

But this got me thinking: How have the Pirates pitchers fared against their first team? Given the club's propensity for home-grown talent,t he list if short:

  • Starter A.J. Burnett: Started with the Marlins, against whom he's 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.459 WHIP (career averages: 3.99, 1.319) in six starts 
  • Starter Vance Worley: Started with the Phillies, against whom he's 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 2.250 WHIP (career averages: 3.78, 1.400) in one start
  • Reliever Mark Melancon: Started with the Yankees, against whom he has one save, a 4.32 ERA and 0.720 WHIP (career averages: 2.95, 1.112) in six games
And that's it. Every other Pirates pitcher is either home-grown (Cole, Hughes, LaFramboise, Locke, Sadler, Watson), or has never faced his original team (Bastardo [Phillies], Carminero [Marlins], Liz [Orioles], Scahill [Rockies]). 

So tonight, Pirates starter Jeff Locke has no reason to be particularly good or bad against the Twins, as he's spent his entire career with Pittsburgh and has never faced Minnesota. On the other hand, Twins starter Mike Pelfrey, in six appearances against Pittsburgh, has a 3-2 record but a 4.78 ERA and 1.407 WHIP, about in line with his career averages of 4.51 and 1.480, respectively. No Kryptonite-based advantage here.


*The term Kryptonite is commonly misused. It's come to mean a person's weakness, e.g. New York Post, last Nov. 1: "Cold weather is [Peyton] Manning's Kryptonite...exemplified by his 8-11 career record and thoroughly mediocre 82.1 rating in games played in temperatures below 40." True, the otherwise indestructible Superman is vulnerable to Kryptonite, but what makes it different from Peyton Manning's aversion to cold weather is that Kryptonite was formed from exploded pieces of Superman's home planet, Krypton. So the analogy here, to Liriano's original team, is more apt that most that you'll see.

**OK, technically, Liriano's home is the Dominican Republic, not Minnesota, and I imagine he's welcome there.

Friday, April 10, 2015

0-3

The Pirates have made the postseason 16 times. Here's how they did in their first three games in each season:

  • 1903: 3-0
  • 1909: 1-2 (won first game, then dropped three straight, all to Cincinnati)
  • 1925: 1-2 (eventually slipped to 1-6)
  • 1927: 3-0
  • 1960: 1-2
  • 1970: 1-2
  • 1971: 3-0
  • 1972: 1-2
  • 1974: 0-3 (ultimately 0-6)
  • 1975: 3-0
  • 1979: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
  • 1990: 2-1
  • 1991: 2-1
  • 1992: 2-1
  • 2013: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
  • 2014: 2-1
So yeah. They've never opened a season 0-3, as they have in 2015, and gone on to win the World Series. (They got bounced in the NLCS in 1974 after starting 0-3, three games to one). But there is certainly precedence for a slow start by a successful team, including three of the five teams that won the World Series (1909, 1925, and 1979). So don't freak out. Yet.

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

Well, at least somebody will win! Both teams enter the three-game series in Milwaukee 0-3. At least one team will exit it with victories. Nobody will notice, though, since the Red Sox are playing the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, so we know where the national media will be solely focused.

They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.

Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday. 

When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one). 

Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

What's Going On With: Francisco Liriano

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP
2011 27 MIN AL 9 10 .474 5.09 26 24 134.1 125 76 14 75 112 80 1.489
2012 28 TOT AL 6 12 .333 5.34 34 28 156.2 143 93 19 87 167 78 1.468
2013 29 PIT NL 16 8 .667 3.02 26 26 161.0 134 54 9 63 163 117 1.224
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/30/2014.

What's The Story? The Pirates plucked Francisco Liriano off the scrap heap. As you can see, he was a pretty bad pitcher in 2011 and 2012, compiling 5+ ERAs both years. ERA+, which measures ERA relative to the rest of the league, adjusted for home park, says he was 20% worse than average in 2011 and 22% worse in 2012, when he split time between the Twins and White Sox. Then he broke his right (non-pitching) arm in the off-season. The Pirates signed him for $1 million, and for that $1 million, they got one of the ten best left-handed starters in the National League. He went from being 22% below average to 17% above average, per ERA+. How did he do that?

If You Don't Want to Read All the Rest of This: He stopped throwing his fastball, which wasn't all that great a pitch anyway. As a result, he became a ground-ball machine in front of a Pirates defense that was one of the best in baseball at positioning themselves for balls hit on the ground. Fewer fly balls also meant fewer balls leaving the park. 

What's He Throwing?
Against Lefties:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011      21%     39%       39%        0%
2012      20%     34%       46%        0%
2013       0%     53%       45%        2%

Against Righties:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011      27%     22%       26%       25%
2012      23%     26%       29%       22%
2013       0%     38%       27%       35%

Overall:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011      25%     26%       29%       19%
2012      22%     28%       33%       17%
2013       0%     41%       37%       22%

"Francisco, he're's the deal. Your fastball sucks. Stop throwing it." Can you imagine the conversation that went on? OK, technically, a "fastball" is a four-seam fastball and "sinker" is a two-seam fastball. But still. The four-seamer is the key pitch in most pitchers' repertoires. He relied on his sinker a lot more and also threw more changeups. He threw more sliders overall but that's because he faced more left-handed batters.

What's Wrong With His Fastball?
Miles Per Hour:
Year   Fastball  Sinker    Slider   Change
2011     91.6     91.8      85.4     84.1
2012     92.9     92.9      85.6     85.7
2013              93.0      86.9     86.5
Well, I suppose that when your fastball and sinker have basically the same velocity, you might as well go with the pitch that has more movement. Everything was a little faster last year.

What He Gave Up:
2011             Whiff/                   HR/
Year      Swing% Swing% GB%   LD%   FB%  FB+LD
Fastball   21%    11%   34%   14%   38%    9%
Sinker     20%    12%   55%   15%   28%    7%
Slider     36%    43%   50%   14%   28%   11%
Change     32%    43%   57%   12%   27%    3%

2012             Whiff/                   HR/
Year      Swing% Swing% GB%   LD%   FB%  FB+LD
Fastball   33%     9%   35%   20%   43%   13%
Sinker     38%    18%   50%   21%   21%    2%
Slider     55%    43%   41%   19%   31%   10%
Change     43%    44%   49%    8%   38%   12%

2013             Whiff/                   HR/
Year      Swing% Swing% GB%   LD%   FB%  FB+LD
Sinker     36%    14%   52%   23%   23%    7%
Slider     50%    42%   52%   24%   29%    3%
Change     53%    35%   55%   30%   12%    0%
(see glossary at end for column definitions)

Three things stand out about that fastball: They didn't generate a lot of swings-and-misses (15%-20% less than the typical lefty), it's his only pitch that didn't get hit on the ground a lot, and when it was hit in the air, it went over the fence a fair amount.

Why Did He Make the Change? Recall this post, where I linked to an article from the Pittsburgh Tribune describing how the Pirates last season used data to shift their fielders around based on opposing hitters' tendencies. However:
Shifts are only as effective as the number of groundballs hit into them. The second prong of the Pirates' comprehensive run prevention strategy was tied to increasing their pitchers' groundball rates. Defensive change began on the mound. 
How do pitchers produce groundballs? They must throw effective two-seam fastballs.

Two-seam fastballs are sinkers. Fewer fastballs that produce fly balls, more sinkers that generate grounders. Liriano's change in repertoire was in keeping the Pirates' strategy. Among his teammates, A.J. Burnett threw 25% fastballs and 36% sinkers in 2012. Last year his split was 22%/37%. Jeff Locke hardly threw his sinker at all (7% of pitches) in 2012, he threw it 29% of the time last year. Charlie Morton threw his sinker a lot on 2012 (42% of pitches) but he threw it more last year (57%). Reliever Mark Melancon doesn't have a sinker, but he used his curve and cut fastball more, both of which produce grounders, while reducing his proportion of fastballs from 31% in 2012 to 7% in 2013. Liriano was just the most dramatic case.

What Does the Future Hold? Liriano was historically good against left-handed hitters last year. Among lefties with 25+ starts, he allowed the fifth-lowest batting average (.131), second-lowest on base percentage (.174), second-lowest slugging percentage (.142) and lowest OPS (.321) in history against left handed hitters. His slider was unhittable by lefties: in 79 at bats, he allowed four singles and a double and got 35 strikeouts. That won't last. On the other hand, his batting average on balls in play, often an indicator of luck, was .292 compared to a league average of .296. Only 4.6% of his fly balls left the park, compared to a league average of 7.1%, so he'll probably regress some there. A few more homers, less dominance against southpaws...still no reason to think he won't be a fine pitcher again in 2014.


(All data here from Brooks Baseball and Baseball-Reference.) 
Glossary: Swing% = percentage of pitches at which batters swung; Whiff/Swing% = percentage of swings that missed the ball; GB%, LD%, FB% are percentage of batted balls that are ground balls, line drives, and fly balls, respectively; HR/FB+LD = percentage of fly balls and line drives that are home runs