- The Washington Nationals have gone from a team that hits a lot of balls to the opposite field to one that rarely goes the other way.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have gone from one of the most free-swinging teams to the team that swings the least frequently in the majors.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates' pitchers have gone from being one of the stingiest at allowing home runs to one of the most homer-prone.
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Showing posts with label Milwaukee Brewers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Milwaukee Brewers. Show all posts
Monday, May 30, 2016
The Under-The Radar Team Adjustments
My latest Baseball Prospectus article is here. I look at three teams that have changed sharply from 2015 to 2016 in ways that aren't well-reported:
Sunday, October 4, 2015
The Two Lousy Clubs That Messed Up the Pirates' Season
The Pirates finished the year with a 98-64 record, the second best in all of baseball. That ties them with the 1979 and 1908 clubs for the third most wins in franchise history. (The 1909 Pirates won 110 and the 1902 club won 103.) The Pirates' record, however, included a losing record against two of the worst teams in the game, the Cincinnati Reds (8-11) and the Milwaukee Brewers (9-10).
Let's break that down. In games in which the Reds didn't play the Pirates, they were 53-90. In games in which the Brewers didn't play the Pirates, they were 58-85. So in their non-Pirates games, the two clubs combined for a 111-175 record, a .388 winning percentage. Had they played at that pace in their 38 games against the Pirates, they would have won .388 x 38 games = 15 games, losing 23. Turned around, the Pirates would have gone 23-15 against the Reds and Brewers.
The Pirates were 81-43 in their games that weren't against Cincinnati or Milwaukee. Had they gone 23-15 against the two clubs--that, is had they been as successful as the rest of the teams in the majors were--their record would have been 104-58. That would have given the Pirates the best record in baseball. They would be enjoying four off days, looking forward to Wednesday's wild card game between the Cardinals and Cubs to see whom they'd face at home to kick off the Division Series on Friday.
Let's break that down. In games in which the Reds didn't play the Pirates, they were 53-90. In games in which the Brewers didn't play the Pirates, they were 58-85. So in their non-Pirates games, the two clubs combined for a 111-175 record, a .388 winning percentage. Had they played at that pace in their 38 games against the Pirates, they would have won .388 x 38 games = 15 games, losing 23. Turned around, the Pirates would have gone 23-15 against the Reds and Brewers.
The Pirates were 81-43 in their games that weren't against Cincinnati or Milwaukee. Had they gone 23-15 against the two clubs--that, is had they been as successful as the rest of the teams in the majors were--their record would have been 104-58. That would have given the Pirates the best record in baseball. They would be enjoying four off days, looking forward to Wednesday's wild card game between the Cardinals and Cubs to see whom they'd face at home to kick off the Division Series on Friday.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Next Up: The...Wait, Didn't We Just Get Done Playing These Guys?
Pretty close: The Pirates played three games against the Brewers, the last of which was just a week ago today, last week. They were swept in three games at Miller Park. They'll hope for more success at home, though I'll point out again that the Pirates have struggled against the worst teams in their division, including a 6-9 record to date against the Brewers.
How Are They Doing Lately? This is going to be a lot like the last piece I wrote about the Brewers...Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 13-13, exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 5.1 runs per game, fifth in the league but allowed 5.0, also the the fifth most.
How Are They Doing Lately? This is going to be a lot like the last piece I wrote about the Brewers...Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 13-13, exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 5.1 runs per game, fifth in the league but allowed 5.0, also the the fifth most.
What's Going Right? The Brewers are second in batting average (.278), fourth in on base percentage (.331), and fifth in slugging percentage (.449) over the past 30 days. They're in a four-way tie for the fifth fewest (or, if you like, a four-way tie for the eighth most) home runs, they've walked at the fourth lowest rate, and struck out at the fifth highest rate, but overall, they've been pretty good. They've hit a below-average number of out-producing grounders and have an above-average rate of hard contact.
What's Going Wrong? The pitching problem is the starting staff. Its 5.48 ERA over the past 30 days is the fourth highest in the league and has led to an over-reliance on the bullpen, as the Brewers starters are the only ones in the league to have averaged less than five innings per start over the past 30 days. The Brewers starters have the highest walk rate and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league over the period and have induced the second-lowest rate of swings outside the strike zone.
What's Going Wrong? The pitching problem is the starting staff. Its 5.48 ERA over the past 30 days is the fourth highest in the league and has led to an over-reliance on the bullpen, as the Brewers starters are the only ones in the league to have averaged less than five innings per start over the past 30 days. The Brewers starters have the highest walk rate and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league over the period and have induced the second-lowest rate of swings outside the strike zone.
Who's Hot? Same as I said last time: right fielder Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy have led the Crew over the last 30 days. Braun has a .372/.423/.617 slash line over the past 30 days, and Lucroy's is .311/.363/.544. Lucroy and Braun are 1-2 on the club in runs scored; Braun and Lucroy are 1-2 in RBI. Center fielder Domingo Santana, who came over in the Carlos Gomez trade, is hitting .288/.409/.615 in 16 games as a Brewer. (Gomez is hitting only .239/.284/.370 as an Astro--his OPS is barely better than Santana's slugging percentage.) First baseman Adam Lind (.297/.409/.486) and second baseman Scooter Gennett (.348/.357/.464) have also done well over the past 30 days.
The Brewers have relied on four relievers who've appeared in eleven or more games over the past 30 days. Two of them, middle relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel, have combined for a 1.93 ERA (though Jeffress has struck out only five batters in 12.1 innings and Knebel's allowed three homers in 11.0). As for the other two relievers, see the next sentence.
The Brewers have relied on four relievers who've appeared in eleven or more games over the past 30 days. Two of them, middle relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel, have combined for a 1.93 ERA (though Jeffress has struck out only five batters in 12.1 innings and Knebel's allowed three homers in 11.0). As for the other two relievers, see the next sentence.
Who's Not? Closer Francisco Rodriguez has a 6.75 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup man Will Smith's is 5.56. The Pirates will face starters Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies (who's listed at 22 years old, 6'0", 160, but looks younger and skinnier), and Taylor Jungmann over the series. Peralta and Davies are the only two starters with ERAs below 4.00 over the last 30 days, at 3.42 and 3.97, respectively. So by that measure, they're not hot. On the other hand, they've combined for a 2.10 ERA against the Pirates this year. (Full disclosure: All but one of the starts have been by Nelson and Jungmann.)
What's the Outlook? Coming off two victories in three games against arch-nemesis/otherwise bad team Cincinnati, the Pirates will try to get their seasonal record closer to .500 against the Brewers. As I wrote last week:
As has been the case all year, the key to beating the Brewers is building up a lead against their unreliable starting pitchers.As of this writing, the National League Central has the teams with the best (Cardinals), second-best (Pirates), and fourth-best (Cubs) record in major league baseball. All three teams look to improve over the weekend, as the Pirates play the team with the seventh-worst record in baseball (Milwaukee), the Reds play the team with the fourth-worst record (Cincinnati), and the Cubs draw the long straw, playing the team with the worst record of all (Philadelphia).
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers
The Cardinals really are ridiculous. Last Monday, I noted that the Pirates, 3.5 games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central, were starting a series of ten games against three of the worst teams in the National League, while the Cardinals had ten against teams with winning records. The Pirates have delivered, going 5-2 in the first seven games...and they've lost a game and a half in the standings. St. Louis has 31 more games. If they go 15-16 for the rest of the season, the Pirates will have to go 22-11 to pass them. That's not impossible--the team's a game better than that, 23-10, over its last 33 games--but the last time the Cardinals were below .500 over a 31-game stretch was July 5 to August 12 last year.
On a brighter note, the Pirates enter play tonight against the Brewers 5.5 games ahead of the Cubs for the first wild card and home field advantage for the National League wild card play-in game on October 7.
How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 11-14, putting them exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, seventh in the league (one spot below the Pirates at 4.6) and allowed 5.2, the fourth most. An 11-14 record is about what you'd expect from a run differential like that.
On a brighter note, the Pirates enter play tonight against the Brewers 5.5 games ahead of the Cubs for the first wild card and home field advantage for the National League wild card play-in game on October 7.
How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Brewers are 11-14, putting them exactly in the middle of the fifteen-team National League over the span. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, seventh in the league (one spot below the Pirates at 4.6) and allowed 5.2, the fourth most. An 11-14 record is about what you'd expect from a run differential like that.
What's Going Right? The Brewers' batters have hit .259, the sixth highest batting average in the league, over the past 30 days, with a seventh-best .421 slugging percentage, but their .313 on base percentage is twelfth. They've struck out an an above-average rate and walked at a below-average rate but they've generated the third-highest rate of hard contact in the league, resulting in 13% of their fly balls going over the fence, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
What's Going Wrong? The Brewers bullpen has been in the middle of the pack over the past 30 days--4.08 ERA, seventh in the league--but the starters have been bad. Their 5.51 ERA over the past 30 days is tenth in the league. That ranking doesn't sound too bad. But the National League over the past 30 days has had nine teams with a starters' ERA below 4.50 and the other six with a starters' ERA above 5.50. The Brewers are on the wrong side of that divide, as evidenced by the league ERA of 4.44--Milwaukee's been 24% worse. The starters have the highest walk rate and fifth lowest strikeout rate in the league. They've probably been a little unlucky--no team's stranded fewer baserunners--but they've induced opponents to swing at only 27% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest rate in the league. As a result, they've allowed the highest rate of hard contact on balls in play and the second-lowest rate of soft contact.
What's Going Wrong? The Brewers bullpen has been in the middle of the pack over the past 30 days--4.08 ERA, seventh in the league--but the starters have been bad. Their 5.51 ERA over the past 30 days is tenth in the league. That ranking doesn't sound too bad. But the National League over the past 30 days has had nine teams with a starters' ERA below 4.50 and the other six with a starters' ERA above 5.50. The Brewers are on the wrong side of that divide, as evidenced by the league ERA of 4.44--Milwaukee's been 24% worse. The starters have the highest walk rate and fifth lowest strikeout rate in the league. They've probably been a little unlucky--no team's stranded fewer baserunners--but they've induced opponents to swing at only 27% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second-lowest rate in the league. As a result, they've allowed the highest rate of hard contact on balls in play and the second-lowest rate of soft contact.
Who's Hot? With center fielder Carlos Gomez traded with starter Mike Fiers to the Astros at the trade deadline, the Brewers' biggest remaining stars are right fielder/boo magnet Ryan Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Over the past 30 days, Braun's caught fire, with a .337/.400/.596 slash line, and Lucroy's slugged .512 with a .343 on base percentage. Left fielder Khris Davis has hit ten homers, slugging .584, but he's been all-or-none at the plate, with just a .225 batting average and a .283 on base percentage. On the mound, the exception to the Brewers-starters-haven't-been-good rule is rookie Taylor Jungmann, who's had a 3.12 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 26 innings over the past 30 days. Pirates fans will remember that Jungmann's first major league start came against the Bucs in June; he allowed one run over seven innings in a 4-1 Brewers victory. He'll pitch Wednesday. In the bullpen, the two primary setup men, Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress, have been good, with 28 strikeouts and a 1.23 ERA over 22 innings in the past 30 days.
Who's Not? Tonight's starter, Jimmy Nelson, hasn't been bad over the past 30 days, with a 4.03 ERA (but too many walks, 13 in 29 innings). Thursday's starter, Matt Garza, by contrast, has been bad (7.24 ERA). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has struggled, with a 6.10 ERA over the past 30 days. His peripheral numbers are good--13 strikeouts and just one walk over 10.1 innings, going eight-for-nine in saves--but he's given up three home runs, as many as any Brewers starter other than Garza.
You gotta get on base to score runs, and much of the Brewers' lineup over the past 30 days has been an on base percentage sinkhole: third baseman Hernan Perez (who took over the position when the Pirates acquired Aramis Ramirez) .265, shortstop Jean Segura .272, Gomez replacement Shane Peterson .282, and the aforementioned Davis. Special credit goes to Perez, who has the fewest unintentional walks, three, of any player in the majors with at least 190 plate appearances this year.
You gotta get on base to score runs, and much of the Brewers' lineup over the past 30 days has been an on base percentage sinkhole: third baseman Hernan Perez (who took over the position when the Pirates acquired Aramis Ramirez) .265, shortstop Jean Segura .272, Gomez replacement Shane Peterson .282, and the aforementioned Davis. Special credit goes to Perez, who has the fewest unintentional walks, three, of any player in the majors with at least 190 plate appearances this year.
What's the Outlook? At 55-75, the Brewers have the fifth worst record in the National League. The Pirates, though, have struggled against their National League Central rivals, going 21-29 in games within the division. That ties them with Milwaukee for the worst record in intra-division games in the Central. So far, the teams have split twelve meetings, and the Brewers hold a 4-2 advantage in games at Miller Park. The Pirates will try to narrow that advantage in advance of a weekend series in St. Louis. As has been the case all year, the key to beating the Brewers is building up a lead against their unreliable starting pitchers.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Aramis Ramirez's Valedictory Pennant Drive
Aramis Ramirez batted .235 with two homers in 72 games as a 20 year old rookie third baseman for the last place Pirates in 1998. He batted .179 in 18 games for the third place Pirates in 1999. He batted .256 with six homers in 73 games for the fifth place Pirates in 2000. He was one of the best players on the last place 2001 Pirates, batting .300 with 34 homers and a team-leading 112 RBI, but he slumped to .234 with 18 homers the following year. In 2003, after batting .280 with a dozen homers in 96 games, he was traded to the Cubs. He played in Chicago through the 2011 season, making two All-Star teams and receiving MVP votes in four seasons. He signed a free agent contract with the Brewers that winter and had a strong 2012, batting .300 with a league-leading 50 doubles. He missed 70 games in 2013 and in 2014, at 36, he started showing his age, posting a .427 slugging percentage that was his lowest since 2000. This year, which he has announced will be his last, he's batting .247 with a .295 on base percentage and a .430 slugging percentage.
Along the way, Ramirez has played 2,064 games at third base, the tenth most in history, and he's played his entire career either with the Pirates or in the same division as the Pirates. He's had 1,168 plate appearances--about two full seasons worth--at PNC Park. He has 2,253 plate appearances as a Pirate and 711 as a Pirates opponent.
And he will end his career back in Pittsburgh. This afternoon, the Pirates traded minor league pitcher Yhonathan Barrios to the Brewers for the last ten or so weeks of Ramirez's career. Barrios is 23 year old Colombian (no, he's not a Cuban) who was signed as a shortstop but after batting .196 in 2012 and .143 in 2013, he became a relief pitcher, with a career ERA of 3.12 in 84 games. This year he had ten saves and a 1.46 ERA in 20 games for AA Altoona and one save and a 4.60 ERA for AAA Indianapolis. His high walk rate (3.6 per nine innings) and low strikeout rate (6.6 per nine innings) in the minors do not portend much of a major league career.
For the Pirates, Ramirez will shore up the injury-impaired left side of the infield. With third baseman Josh Harrison and shortstop Jordy Mercer on the disabled list, the Pirates were looking at Brent Morel (career .225/.275/.325 slash line) at third or Pedro Florimon (an even worse .203/.265/.298) at shortstop, with Jung Ho Kang playing short opposite Morel and third opposite Florimon. Ramirez adds a reasonable right-handed bat at third, allowing Kang to settle in at short at least until Mercer returns in September. It's a low-cost upgrade in that the Pirates are adding Ramirez, who, despite a slow start, has a .247/.295/.430 slash line that's far superior to what Morel and Florimon were likely to generate.
Along the way, Ramirez has played 2,064 games at third base, the tenth most in history, and he's played his entire career either with the Pirates or in the same division as the Pirates. He's had 1,168 plate appearances--about two full seasons worth--at PNC Park. He has 2,253 plate appearances as a Pirate and 711 as a Pirates opponent.
And he will end his career back in Pittsburgh. This afternoon, the Pirates traded minor league pitcher Yhonathan Barrios to the Brewers for the last ten or so weeks of Ramirez's career. Barrios is 23 year old Colombian (no, he's not a Cuban) who was signed as a shortstop but after batting .196 in 2012 and .143 in 2013, he became a relief pitcher, with a career ERA of 3.12 in 84 games. This year he had ten saves and a 1.46 ERA in 20 games for AA Altoona and one save and a 4.60 ERA for AAA Indianapolis. His high walk rate (3.6 per nine innings) and low strikeout rate (6.6 per nine innings) in the minors do not portend much of a major league career.
For the Pirates, Ramirez will shore up the injury-impaired left side of the infield. With third baseman Josh Harrison and shortstop Jordy Mercer on the disabled list, the Pirates were looking at Brent Morel (career .225/.275/.325 slash line) at third or Pedro Florimon (an even worse .203/.265/.298) at shortstop, with Jung Ho Kang playing short opposite Morel and third opposite Florimon. Ramirez adds a reasonable right-handed bat at third, allowing Kang to settle in at short at least until Mercer returns in September. It's a low-cost upgrade in that the Pirates are adding Ramirez, who, despite a slow start, has a .247/.295/.430 slash line that's far superior to what Morel and Florimon were likely to generate.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Strength of Schedule
You see strength of schedule, or SOS, discussed a lot with college football. Since every college football team plays a different schedule, some against top-25 foes, some against creampuffs, strength of schedule helps you understand whether a team that's 9-1 got there by playing teams with winning or losing records.
It isn't as relevant in baseball, because within a division, teams play more or less the same schedules. Teams in the Pirates' division, for example, play 19 games against each of their Central divisional foes (that's 74 games), 34 games against each of the Eastern and Western divisions (another 68), and 20 interleague games against the American League Central. The schedules outside their home divisions aren't exactly balanced, but they're fairly close. So every team plays about the same schedule, and if everybody plays the same schedule, strength of schedule isn't all that relevant.
When it does become important, though, is during the season. Teams don't play the same schedule all season long. Some teams play easier foes in the first half of the season, some player easier foes in the second half, and some play a fairly balanced schedule. How about in 2015?
To answer this, I looked at the remaining games (after today) for each team in the National League Central. For example, here's the remaining schedule for the Pirates and each foe's winning percentage entering play today:
It isn't as relevant in baseball, because within a division, teams play more or less the same schedules. Teams in the Pirates' division, for example, play 19 games against each of their Central divisional foes (that's 74 games), 34 games against each of the Eastern and Western divisions (another 68), and 20 interleague games against the American League Central. The schedules outside their home divisions aren't exactly balanced, but they're fairly close. So every team plays about the same schedule, and if everybody plays the same schedule, strength of schedule isn't all that relevant.
When it does become important, though, is during the season. Teams don't play the same schedule all season long. Some teams play easier foes in the first half of the season, some player easier foes in the second half, and some play a fairly balanced schedule. How about in 2015?
To answer this, I looked at the remaining games (after today) for each team in the National League Central. For example, here's the remaining schedule for the Pirates and each foe's winning percentage entering play today:
- Ten against the Reds (.455)
- Nine each against the Cardinals (.637) and Cubs (.539)
- Seven each against the Brewers (.435) and Rockies (.435)
- Six against the Dodgers (.565)
- Four each against the Giants (.527), Marlins (.418), and Nationals (.551)
- Three each against the Diamondbacks (.472), Mets (.516), and Royals (.607)
- Two against the Twins (.549)
If I multiply each of those winning percentages by the games against the team and divide the sum by the games remaining for the Pirates after today, 71, I get a weighted average won-lost record of .514 for the teams the Pirates will face the rest of the season.
How good is that? It's pretty good. The National League, the teams with the best won-lost records for the rest of the season are the Reds (.539), Rockies (.518), and Pirates (.514). (The poor Reds have 13 games against the Cardinals, ten each against the Cubs and Pirates, seven against the Dodgers--all playoff contenders--as well as four games against the Mets and three against the Giants, both of which have winning records.) The easiest schedules are those of the Mets (.469), Padres (.473), and National (.475). (The National League East has the two worst teams in the league so far, the Marlins and Phillies, against whom the Mets and Nationals still have 19 games each while the Padres have 13, helping explain their relatively easy schedules.)
Here's a way of looking at this: The Pirates' foes have a winning percentage of .514. Multiply that by their 71 games remaining, and the Pirates are playing teams that could be expected to win .514 x 71 = 36.5 games and lose 34.5. Let's do this exercise for the entire National League Central:
Team W-L W L GB
Chicago .488 35.1 36.9 ---
St. Louis .490 34.3 35.7 0.2
Milwaukee .513 35.4 33.6 1.8
Pittsburgh .514 36.5 34.5 1.9
Cincinnati .539 38.8 33.1 3.7
The games behind column is the opposite of what you'd normally see, as it displays the number of games each teams trails the Cubs, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the division. The Reds' remaining schedule is against teams that are 3.7 games better than the Cubs' foes applied to the remainder of the schedule. The Pirates trail the Cubs by 1.9 games and the Cardinals by 1.7 games, indicating that the Bucs' remaining schedule is about two games tougher than that of their divisional opponents. That'll make the task of catching the Cardinals (they trail by 4.5 games entering play today), and holding off the Cubs (they're 4.5 games ahead) that much harder.
Friday, July 17, 2015
Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers
The Pirates open a three-game series in Milwaukee tonight before wrapping up interleague play against the two top teams in the American League Central, Kansas City and Minnesota, wrapped around a four-game series against the National League East-leading Washington Nationals.
How Are They Doing Lately? The Brewers are a .500 team over the past 30 days, going 14-14. Appropriately, that ranks them exactly in the middle of the National League. They've led the league in scoring during the period, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They've given up 4.4 per game, the fifth most.
How Are They Doing Lately? The Brewers are a .500 team over the past 30 days, going 14-14. Appropriately, that ranks them exactly in the middle of the National League. They've led the league in scoring during the period, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They've given up 4.4 per game, the fifth most.
What's Going Right? When you lead the league in scoring, the offense is clicking. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers lead the league in batting (.282) and on base percentage (.335) and they're second in slugging percentage (.433). They're third in home runs and have been the hardest team in the league to strike out. The bullpen's been OK, with a 3.19 ERA that ranks ninth in the league over the past 30 days, as they've gotten opposing hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone at a fourth-best-in-the-league 32% clip.
What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers' 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days would be the worst in the league were it not for the Rockies' Coors Field-inflated 5.41 and the Phillies' cover-your-eyes 7.07. They've struck out batters at the lowest rate in the league during the period and allowed the second-most hard-hit balls.
What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers' 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days would be the worst in the league were it not for the Rockies' Coors Field-inflated 5.41 and the Phillies' cover-your-eyes 7.07. They've struck out batters at the lowest rate in the league during the period and allowed the second-most hard-hit balls.
Who's Hot? The biggest batting stars over the last 30 days have been outfielder Gerardo Parra (.349/.383/.566 slash line) and first baseman Adam Lind (.290/.396/.538). Lind leads the club over the period with six homers and 19 RBI, while Parra's the leading scorer with 18 runs. He's added five homers and five stolen bases. Second baseman Scooter Gennett, sent the minors in May with a .154/.203/.200 batting line, is hitting .298/.327/.511 since his return on June 11. The team's more familiar stars--catcher Jonathan Lucroy, right fielder Ryan Braun, and center fielder Carlos Gomez--have been solid contributors as well.
Rookie Taylor Jungmann, who debuted against the Pirates on June 9, has a 2.31 ERA over the past 30 days. He'll start Sunday afternoon's game. In the bullpen, closer Francisco Rodriguez has six saves, a 2.00 ERA, and 13 strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days, and the two relievers likely to replace Rodriguez if he's traded, righty Jeremy Jeffress and lefty Will Smith, have combined for a 2.74 ERA, though Jeffress doesn't strike out enough batters (14% of batters faced, the league average is 21% for relievers) and Smith walks too many (9%, the league average is 7%).
Rookie Taylor Jungmann, who debuted against the Pirates on June 9, has a 2.31 ERA over the past 30 days. He'll start Sunday afternoon's game. In the bullpen, closer Francisco Rodriguez has six saves, a 2.00 ERA, and 13 strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days, and the two relievers likely to replace Rodriguez if he's traded, righty Jeremy Jeffress and lefty Will Smith, have combined for a 2.74 ERA, though Jeffress doesn't strike out enough batters (14% of batters faced, the league average is 21% for relievers) and Smith walks too many (9%, the league average is 7%).
Who's Not? The two worst starting pitchers over the past 30 days have been the two supposedly on the trading block: Kyle Lohse has a 5.94 ERA and Matt Garza's is 7.88. Garza's out with shoulder tendonitis and the Pirates won't face Lohse. Shortstop Jean Segura has an absolutely punchless .252 batting average over the past 30 days: he's walked only three times and has no extra-base hits at all, so his on base percentage is just .278 and his slugging percentage of .252 is lower than that of Pirate pitcher Vance Worley (.267).
What's the Outlook? I'll reiterate what I said the last time the teams met:
Some players who could be moved won't generate a lot in return. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez is 37, having a down year, and has announced he'll retire at the end of the season, so he'll bring little in return. Lohse is a free agent after the season and has a 6.17 ERA. Garza is a little pricey, owed $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017 with a $13 million vesting option in 2018, plus he's got a 5.55 ERA and is on the disabled list.
Other trade pieces are more valuable. This is K-Rod's 14th year in the majors but he's only 33 and still getting batters out. His contract is reasonable ($5.5 million next year, $6 million team option/$4 million buyout in 2017), so he could go to a team in need of relief help (Detroit?). Gomez is arguably the club's best player, and he's owed a reasonable $9 million next year, but he'll be a free agent after that and likely too expensive for the Brewers, so he could depart. Lind has turned out be a nice pickup for the Brewers. He's owed either $8 million or a $500,000 buyout next year, so he could be traded to team looking for help at first base. (The Cardinals and Pirates come to mind immediately). Segura's about to become more expensive, as he's eligible for arbitration next year, but he won't be a free agent until 2019, so I don't fully understand the zeal to trade him. The difficulty for the Brewers is that it makes sense to trade players if they won't be around for the next winning team. The Brewers aren't hopeless, and it'd normally be pessimistic to suggest a team can't turn around in three years, becoming a contender for at least a wild card in Segura's last year before free agency. But Milwaukee has the misfortune to play in the same division as possibly the best organization in baseball (St. Louis) and two of the best young teams (the Pirates and the Cubs), so it could be a long time before they can break into the top three in the division. Thus, I expect the Brewers to be more interested in longer-term prospects than major league-ready players as we approach the trade deadline at the end of the month.
They...have more good bats than poor ones in the lineup. The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.The bigger question is, how long does this team stay together? The Brewers are in last place, 10.5 games behind the Cardinals, and not going to the postseason. There have been rumors about almost everyone on the team getting traded. Braun's contract pays him $96 million over the next five seasons and he's owed either $15 million (mutual option) or $4 million (buyout) in 2021. With a contract that large, he's not tradeable. Lucroy is sort of the opposite: his contract is so cheap ($4 million next year, $5.25 million team option in 2017) that he's hard to trade as well.
Some players who could be moved won't generate a lot in return. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez is 37, having a down year, and has announced he'll retire at the end of the season, so he'll bring little in return. Lohse is a free agent after the season and has a 6.17 ERA. Garza is a little pricey, owed $12.5 million in 2016 and 2017 with a $13 million vesting option in 2018, plus he's got a 5.55 ERA and is on the disabled list.
Other trade pieces are more valuable. This is K-Rod's 14th year in the majors but he's only 33 and still getting batters out. His contract is reasonable ($5.5 million next year, $6 million team option/$4 million buyout in 2017), so he could go to a team in need of relief help (Detroit?). Gomez is arguably the club's best player, and he's owed a reasonable $9 million next year, but he'll be a free agent after that and likely too expensive for the Brewers, so he could depart. Lind has turned out be a nice pickup for the Brewers. He's owed either $8 million or a $500,000 buyout next year, so he could be traded to team looking for help at first base. (The Cardinals and Pirates come to mind immediately). Segura's about to become more expensive, as he's eligible for arbitration next year, but he won't be a free agent until 2019, so I don't fully understand the zeal to trade him. The difficulty for the Brewers is that it makes sense to trade players if they won't be around for the next winning team. The Brewers aren't hopeless, and it'd normally be pessimistic to suggest a team can't turn around in three years, becoming a contender for at least a wild card in Segura's last year before free agency. But Milwaukee has the misfortune to play in the same division as possibly the best organization in baseball (St. Louis) and two of the best young teams (the Pirates and the Cubs), so it could be a long time before they can break into the top three in the division. Thus, I expect the Brewers to be more interested in longer-term prospects than major league-ready players as we approach the trade deadline at the end of the month.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
The Draft
This isn't going to be a Pirates-centric post, but let me start with a Pirates-centric comment. Monday, in previewing the series with the Brewers, I wrote
Now, the baseball draft. It started Monday. It continues today. I'm not going to say anything about the players drafted, because I don't know the players drafted. Well, I've heard of some of them, but it's not like they're going to step onto the major league roster and have an impact immediately.
Rather, I want to talk about the baseball draft, and how it differs from the draft in other sports. The NFL draft, is, of course, a spectacle, held at a major venue like Madison Square Garden, broadcast live on ESPN or a network, and the dominant topic on sports talk radio and TV for weeks in advance. The NBA draft is pretty much the same. The MLB draft--well, it goes on for three days, televised on MLB Network, which isn't included in many basic cable packages, and it's filmed in a studio. The MLB draft just isn't the event the NFL and NBA drafts are. Why not?
Here's the key, glaring difference: The NFL and the NBA outsource player development to the NCAA.
I've said this over and over. It explains a lot about the difference between the sports. It explains why MLB player salaries constitute a smaller percentage of team revenues than NFL and NBA player salaries. It explains why there's a thriving minor league system in baseball but not in football or basketball. And it explains why the MLB draft can't, won't, and never will compete with the NFL and NBA drafts.
There are two reasons the MLB draft is way, way different from the NFL and NBA drafts. First, one player in baseball can't turn around a franchise. The Chicago Bulls were 33-49, fourth in the NBA Central in 2007-08. The next year, after drafting Derrick Rose, they improved by eight games and took the 62-20 Celtics to the seventh game in the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts were 2-14, last in the AFC South in 2011. The next year, after drafting Andrew Luck, the team went 11-5 and was beaten in the postseason by eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore. A superstar can turn around a franchise.
In baseball? The biggest impact rookie of late was Mike Trout, who was runner-up in the MVP vote in 2012. Without Trout in 2011, the Angels were 86-76, second in the American League West. With Trout the next year, they were 89-73 and third in the division. They won more games, but they still went home after the season ended.
Now, granted, I'm being a little fast and loose, particularly with football. Basketball's a five-player game, so one player can have an enormous impact. The Cleveland Cavaliers went to the postseason five straight years with LeBron James with an average record of 54-28. The next four years, with James in Miami, they averaged 24-54. This year, with James back, they were 53-29. Football's a 22-player game, so one player doesn't have the same impact. But as the example of Luck illustrates, one player can, in specific circumstances, change a franchise's direction. In baseball, though? It just doesn't happen that way.
The second, and in my opinion more important, reason that baseball's draft doesn't have the impact of football's or baseball's is the time between drafting and playing. The best players in this year's NFL draft will start for their teams this fall. The best players in this year's NBA draft will start for their teams this winter. The best players in this year's MLB draft...well, we'll see them in a few years. There are exceptions--Brandon Finnegan played for TCU in the College World Series last summer and for the Kansas City Royals in the MLB World Series (albeit with a 10.50 postseason ERA) in October--but most drafted players won't appear in the majors for years. Literally, years. Let's look at the last five rookies of the year in each league. I'm going to list only domestic rookies of the year, since there isn't a functional international draft.
The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.For the record: Scoring a total of one run over two games against the Brewers' starters, as the Pirates have done, does not constitute striking early. In fact, it violates the whole "strike early" premise.
Now, the baseball draft. It started Monday. It continues today. I'm not going to say anything about the players drafted, because I don't know the players drafted. Well, I've heard of some of them, but it's not like they're going to step onto the major league roster and have an impact immediately.
Rather, I want to talk about the baseball draft, and how it differs from the draft in other sports. The NFL draft, is, of course, a spectacle, held at a major venue like Madison Square Garden, broadcast live on ESPN or a network, and the dominant topic on sports talk radio and TV for weeks in advance. The NBA draft is pretty much the same. The MLB draft--well, it goes on for three days, televised on MLB Network, which isn't included in many basic cable packages, and it's filmed in a studio. The MLB draft just isn't the event the NFL and NBA drafts are. Why not?
Here's the key, glaring difference: The NFL and the NBA outsource player development to the NCAA.
I've said this over and over. It explains a lot about the difference between the sports. It explains why MLB player salaries constitute a smaller percentage of team revenues than NFL and NBA player salaries. It explains why there's a thriving minor league system in baseball but not in football or basketball. And it explains why the MLB draft can't, won't, and never will compete with the NFL and NBA drafts.
There are two reasons the MLB draft is way, way different from the NFL and NBA drafts. First, one player in baseball can't turn around a franchise. The Chicago Bulls were 33-49, fourth in the NBA Central in 2007-08. The next year, after drafting Derrick Rose, they improved by eight games and took the 62-20 Celtics to the seventh game in the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts were 2-14, last in the AFC South in 2011. The next year, after drafting Andrew Luck, the team went 11-5 and was beaten in the postseason by eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore. A superstar can turn around a franchise.
In baseball? The biggest impact rookie of late was Mike Trout, who was runner-up in the MVP vote in 2012. Without Trout in 2011, the Angels were 86-76, second in the American League West. With Trout the next year, they were 89-73 and third in the division. They won more games, but they still went home after the season ended.
Now, granted, I'm being a little fast and loose, particularly with football. Basketball's a five-player game, so one player can have an enormous impact. The Cleveland Cavaliers went to the postseason five straight years with LeBron James with an average record of 54-28. The next four years, with James in Miami, they averaged 24-54. This year, with James back, they were 53-29. Football's a 22-player game, so one player doesn't have the same impact. But as the example of Luck illustrates, one player can, in specific circumstances, change a franchise's direction. In baseball, though? It just doesn't happen that way.
The second, and in my opinion more important, reason that baseball's draft doesn't have the impact of football's or baseball's is the time between drafting and playing. The best players in this year's NFL draft will start for their teams this fall. The best players in this year's NBA draft will start for their teams this winter. The best players in this year's MLB draft...well, we'll see them in a few years. There are exceptions--Brandon Finnegan played for TCU in the College World Series last summer and for the Kansas City Royals in the MLB World Series (albeit with a 10.50 postseason ERA) in October--but most drafted players won't appear in the majors for years. Literally, years. Let's look at the last five rookies of the year in each league. I'm going to list only domestic rookies of the year, since there isn't a functional international draft.
- 2010: Buster Posey was a first-round pick in 2008 and spent two years in the minors.
- 2011: Craig Kimbrel was a third-round pick in 2008 and spent three years in the minors. Jeremy Hellickson was a fourth-round pick in 2005 and spent six years in the minors.
- 2012: Bryce Harper was the first pick in 2010 and spent two years in the minors. Trout was a first-round pick in 2009 and spent three years in the minors.
- 2013: Jose Fernandez was a first-round pick in 2011 and spent two years in the minors. Wil Myers was a third-round pick in 2009 and spent four years in the minors.
- 2014: Jacob deGrom was a ninth-round pick in 2010 and spent three years (he was injured in 2011) in the minors.
None of these top players were major-league regulars the year they were drafted. None of them were major-league regulars the year after they were drafted. Posey, Harper, and Fernandez were the only three who were major-league regulars two years after they were drafted.
Why is that? I'll go back to my main argument: The NFL and the NBA outsource player development to the NCAA. After playing college football or basketball, the best college football and basketball players are pretty much ready for the professional game. After playing college baseball, the best baseball players aren't ready for the professional game. The NCAA does a nice job of preparing football and basketball players for the big leagues; it doesn't do it for baseball. Part of it is caliber of competition, part of it is frequency of play, part of it how the game's played, part of it's the type and level of coaching--put all together, and almost every player selected in this year's, or any year's, baseball draft is going to require time in the minors. During those minor league seasons, some players will get hurt, Some will prove to be ineffective. Some will have a major weakness exposed as they face progressively better competition. All of these factors make the major league draft much, much more of a crapshoot than the other drafts. The 2009 baseball draft was fabulous, yet of the 24 players drafted before Trout, seven haven't made it out of the minors, three hitters have yet to appear in 100 games, and four pitchers have yet to appear in 50 games. That's 14 of 24 players, in a bumper year, who aren't yet major league regulars six years later.
The baseball draft is just different. It's not going to be the spectacle the NFL and NBA drafts are, and it's not going to generate the franchise-changing talents the other drafts yield.
Monday, June 8, 2015
Next Up: The Milwaukee Brewers
In theory, the Pirates open a three-game series against the Brewers tonight, though it appears likely that the weather will intervene tonight. A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, and Charlie Morton are scheduled to oppose Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann (in his first major league start), and Kyle Lohse, respectively. This is the third time the two teams have met this year. The Pirates took two of three in Milwaukee and swept a three-game series in Pittsburgh in April.
How Are They Doing Lately? This is shaping up as a pretty bad year in Milwaukee. The Brewers have the worst record in the majors, 20-37, and over the past 30 days, their 11-16 record is fourth worst in the National League. The Pirates have the league's best record over that stretch, 18-9.
How Are They Doing Lately? This is shaping up as a pretty bad year in Milwaukee. The Brewers have the worst record in the majors, 20-37, and over the past 30 days, their 11-16 record is fourth worst in the National League. The Pirates have the league's best record over that stretch, 18-9.
What's Going Right? The Brewers' bullpen has pitched 95 innings over the last 30 days, the second-most in the National League. (See the comment below about the starting rotation to see why.) Despite the workload, the relievers have a 2.65 ERA, third best in the league, and it hasn't been a fluke: they've induced the second-most grounders and struck out batters at the second-highest rate. The hitters have been challenged at getting on base but when they've hit the ball, they've hit it hard: they're third in homers and tied for first in triples, yielding an isolated slugging percentage (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .161, best in the league.
What's Going Wrong? The rotation's been a weakness. The Brewers' 4.98 starters' ERA over the past 30 days is surpassed by only the Diamondbacks' 5.32 in the National League. bullpen's got a 5.45 ERA over the past 30 days, easily the worst in the league. On offense, the team's batting average is .240 over the past 30 days, third-worst in the league, accompanied by a league-worst .292 on base percentage.
Who's Hot? Going into the season, the Brewers had three All-Star level players: catcher Jonathan Lucroy, right fielder Ryan Braun, and center fielder Carlos Gomez. They were hoping for a bounceback from shortstop Jean Segura, who'd had a poor 2014 after a promising 2013. All four have raked over the past 30 days (OPS: .889 for Lucroy, .938 for Braun, .849 for Gomez, .913 for Segura), though Lucroy's played only six games after returning from a broken toe and Segura lost time with a broken pinkie. Another strong performer, left fielder Khris Davis, has a .933 OPS but is disabled.
The only starting pitcher who's been decent over the past 30 days is Mike Fiers (2.78 ERA), but the Pirates aren't facing him. Of the seven relievers who've appeared in nine or more games over the past 30 days, all but one have an ERA of 3.55 or better. Those six have also struck out 84 batters in 74.1 innings. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has only four saves over the past 30 days, tying the Reds and Padres for fewest in the league, but that's due to a lack of opportunity.
The only starting pitcher who's been decent over the past 30 days is Mike Fiers (2.78 ERA), but the Pirates aren't facing him. Of the seven relievers who've appeared in nine or more games over the past 30 days, all but one have an ERA of 3.55 or better. Those six have also struck out 84 batters in 74.1 innings. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has only four saves over the past 30 days, tying the Reds and Padres for fewest in the league, but that's due to a lack of opportunity.
Who's Not? With so many hitters doing well, why has the offense suffered? First baseman Adam Lind has hit a wall after a hot start, with a .229/.297/.373 slash line over the past 30 days, and third baseman Aramis Ramirez is worse at .171/.224/.329. Martin Maldonado, who caught in Lucroy's absense, contributed .197/.270/.318. Luis Sardinas filled in for Segura, hitting, .227/.239/.258. Second base has been a black hole all year for the Brewers as well; the players splitting the position are last in the NL in batting (.182), on base (.220), and slugging (.261), by far the worst in each category.
Rather than list the starting pitchers who've been bad of late, suffice it to say that those whose last name is not Fiers have a 5.58 ERA. Setup man Jonathan Broxton has a 6.97 ERA over the past 30 days.
Rather than list the starting pitchers who've been bad of late, suffice it to say that those whose last name is not Fiers have a 5.58 ERA. Setup man Jonathan Broxton has a 6.97 ERA over the past 30 days.
What's the Outlook? The The Brewers are not a good team. However, they've been playing shorthanded much of the year, with several starters spending time on the disabled list. They're mostly healthy now, and have more good bats than poor ones in the lineup. The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Odds and Ends - April 19
In about a month, I'll restart my weekly Trailing 30 report, which lists league leaders over the prior 30 days. There's no sense in doing it until then, though. If you want to know who's leading the league over the past few weeks, just look up the current standings. Once we get into May, seeing who's hot (and not) of late becomes interesting. At this point, it's just current events.
Breaking the Brewers Curse?
This chart shows the Pirates' winning percentage against Milwaukee, at home and on the road, over the past 15 years. The pattern is pretty clear.
The Brewers used to absolutely own the Pirates, particularly at Miller Park. From 2006 to 2011, the Pirates went 6-48 in Milwaukee--a .111 winning percentage. After Pittsburgh's three-game sweep at home over the weekend, they're 3-0 at home, 2-1 on the road against a Milwaukee team that, to put it nicely, didn't look particularly sharp.
Ryan Braun--Star or No?
As I pointed out last Thursday, Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun had no extra-base hits entering the series against the Pirates. He exits the series the same: eleven games played, 38 at bats, nine hits, all singles. That's not much of a start for a player considered to be the team's biggest star and, at $13 million, its highest-paid player. This is Braun's ninth year in the majors, and this is only the second time he's gone over ten games straight in a season without an extra-base hit. That's not good. However, the one other time it occurred was in 2011, when Braun had a 12-game, 7-for-44 (.159) streak to start May. That was also the year he was the National League's Most Valuable Player, so it's not like he can't overcome his slow start. On the other hand, he wasn't 31, coming off two disappointing seasons, back in 2011.
This raises a question as to whether Braun is, in fact, the Brewers' biggest star. I'd make a case for center fielder Carlos Gomez or catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Gomez is on the disabled list with a strained hamstring, and Lucroy's started the year batting .132, which, combined with Braun's light hitting, helps explain Milwaukee's 2-10 start, the worst record in the majors.
But apparently the Pirates still view Braun as the team's star. In Saturday night's game, Brewers reliever Tyler Thornburg hit Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen with a high and inside pitch in the bottom of the seventh. I cannot fathom any reason for Thornburg to have hit McCutchen intentionally. The Brewers were losing, 6-1 at the time. There were two outs, nobody on. One of the stupid reasons that pitchers throw at batters is the prior batter hitting a home run. That wasn't the case; right fielder Gregory Polanco preceded McCutchen by grounding to second. Another stupid reason pitchers throw at batters is if the batter's having a big night; McCutchen had walked in the first, fouled out in the third, and walked in the fifth. So, as I said, Thornburg didn't have any justification for hitting McCutchen. Here's a plot of his pitches from Saturday night.
The pitch that hit McCutchen is the green square up and to the left, with the number 1 next to it. That's not the most inside pitch Thornburg threw. The second pitch he threw to leadoff batter Josh Harrison, the green square farthest to the left, with the number 2 next to it, was more inside. He didn't hit Harrison. Was he trying to hit McCutchen? I doubt it.
The point is, McCutchen is, unquestionably, the Pirates' biggest star. The code of baseball says that if you hit my star, I'm going to hit yours. McCutchen was hit in the bottom of the seventh inning. The Brewers went down 1-2-3 in the top of the eighth, with lesser lights (15 total plate appearances among them this season entering the inning) Martin Maldonado, Jason Rogers, and Luis Jimenez retired without incident. In the top of the ninth, Braun led up, and Pirates reliever Arquimedes Caminero promptly nailed him with a 98.6 mph fastball. Pirates fans cheered, the umpires warned both benches, and, a single and a run scored later, the Pirates had a 6-2 victory.
I'm sorry, but I really find Caminero's action objectionable, for two reasons. First, this eye-for-an-eye macho stuff serves no purpose I can see. Yes, I get it, McCutchen shouldn't have gotten hit. And if there were any reason to believe that Thornburg had done it on purpose, I could see the logic behind retaliation. But that really doesn't seem to be the case--Thornburg just threw too far inside, and McCutchen was unable to get away from the pitch, unlike Harrison, who was able to avoid an even closer pitch. Why is it necessary to retaliate for an accident?
Second, if you're going to retaliate, why do you need to do it with a 99 mph fastball? I don't refer to a hit batter as "getting plunked," because plunked conjures up an image of something soft and gentle, like getting hit by a pine cone falling from a tree. A baseball's hard to begin with, and throwing one nearly 100 miles per hour at somebody would be called assault, not plunk, away from a baseball diamond.
You know what this whole thing reminded me of? Last summer, when Diamondbacks reliever Randall Delgado threw a 96 mph into McCutchen's back, ostensibly in retaliation for Arizona's star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt getting hit by a pitch the prior day. McCutchen was hurt, missing several games, and a number of commentators called for Delgado to be suspended. What's the difference here, except that Braun didn't suffer an injury? Same casus belli, same action by the pitcher, same type of pitch thrown. I could do without all of it.
I suppose, though, that Braun can take solace in, apparently, still being the Brewers' big star despite his .237 slugging percentage.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
On April Worries
The season hasn't started well for the Pirates. They're 3-6, ahead of only Milwaukee in the National League Central, 2.5 games behind the Cardinals and Cubs and 2 games behind the Reds. Among the problems:
- They're last in the league in batting average (.207) and on base percentage (.255) and third-to-last in slugging percentage (.338). Pedro Alvarez is the only regular with a batting average above .235.
- They've struck out in over 25% of their plate appearances, the most in the league, while walking in just over 4%, the second-fewest.
- The starting pitchers have been pretty good--3.38 ERA, sixth in the league--but the relievers' ERA of 3.04 is the fifth highest.
- They were shut out Tuesday and Wednesday by the Tigers. That's only the 14th time they've been shut out back-to-back in this century, and the first since 2013.
- As I pointed out Tuesday, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are 1-2 in the National League in strikeouts per plate appearance (42% and 39%, respectively).
- As Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune pointed out Wednesday, closer Mark Melancon has had a worrisome drop in pitch velocity along with a 6.75 ERA.
Still, it isn't time to panic, at least not yet. It's true that the Pirates have suffered two shutouts in a row, which didn't happen at all last year, but it happened twice in 2013, when they won 94 games, the team's most since 1992. As for the won-lost record, last year's club, which made the postseason, was in fourth place in the division as late as July 18. The first nine days do not a season make.
One of the links on the Reading tab is to Joe Sheehan's newsletter. He sends it out via email, and I always look forward to receiving it. The little asterisk next to his name means that you have to pay for it. It's well worth the $29.95 annual fee, because of gems like this, from Tuesday:
So, madding crowds be damned, I'll be the guy who points out that the stats generated in one week of baseball are just as meaningless in April as they are in June as they are in August. Attempts to glean meaning from the performances of individuals or teams over six or seven or eight games are wasteful exercises in clickbait and confirmation bias. This is the worst part of baseball fandom in the modern age, the footballification of analysis, the insistence on stamping feet and insisting that, yes, this time is different.
Joe's point--and he's one of the best analysts out there--is that a short streak doesn't mean anything. Andrew McCutchen is hitting .207 after eight games. That stinks! But he batted .206 over a ten-game streak in 2014. That streak--from May 22 to May 31--didn't occur at the start of the season so it didn't cause the hand-wringing this year's start has. McCutchen will do better. So will the Bucs.
I'm not saying everything's great. It isn't. But it's way, way early to get worried.
(Except Melancon's pitch velocity. I'm really concerned about that.)
Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers
The Pirates host the Brew Crew for three games over the weekend. Last weekend, the Bucs took two of three in Milwaukee. The Brewers haven't been has bad as the Pirates at the plate; Milwaukee's hitters were 24% below league average entering play today, while the Pirates were 33% worse. But Pittsburgh's put together a 3.26 team ERA, sixth in the league, while the Brewers' team ERA of 4.38 is second-worst in the majors. So Pittsburgh's disappointing hitters meet Milwaukee's disappointing pitchers: Somebody should get better, right?
The Brewers' best hitter has been first baseman Adam Lind, who has a .345/.441/.586 slash line. Shortstop Jean Segura, who had a terrible 2014, has also started well, .333/.379/.519. Right fielder/booing target Ryan Braun's hit an anemic .261/.292/.261. His next extra-base hit will be his first.
Monday, April 13, 2015
The Undefeated Detroit Tigers
After compiling a 2-4 road record against, in all likelihood, the two worst teams in the National League Central, the Pirates play their home opener today against the Detroit Tigers, one of two undefeated teams so far. The other, the Kansas City Royals, are in the Tigers' division, so the two teams are tied for first in the American League Central at 6-0. The Tigers, however, lead the majors in run scored, with 47, and run differential, scoring 31 more than their opponents. They pace the majors in batting average (.355) AND on base percentage (.433) AND slugging percentage (.550), and they're second to the Atlanta Braves in ERA (2.00). They've started the season well, obviously.
This illustrates my gripe with interleague play. It's necessary now, because each league has 15 teams, so in order to have every team active, there has to be at least one interleague game everyday. Fine. I'm not crazy with how baseball did well throughout the 20th century with the two leagues not meeting outside of the All-Star Game and the World Series, but whatever. It doesn't spoil the game for me, even though every year it foments a new round of the same DH arguments we've heard for 40+ years.
The problem is that the schedule's not balanced. Everybody plays 20 games agaisnt the other league, but they don't play the same teams. In the Central, the Pirates play six games against the Tigers, the defending divisional champion. That's the most in the National League Central. The Cubs and Reds play the Tigers just four times, the Brewers and Cardinals three times. The Brewers get six games against the woeful Minnesota Twins, compared to four for the Cardinals and Pirates and three for the Cubs and Reds. Here are the weighted won-lost records of each National League Central team's American League opponents this year:
This illustrates my gripe with interleague play. It's necessary now, because each league has 15 teams, so in order to have every team active, there has to be at least one interleague game everyday. Fine. I'm not crazy with how baseball did well throughout the 20th century with the two leagues not meeting outside of the All-Star Game and the World Series, but whatever. It doesn't spoil the game for me, even though every year it foments a new round of the same DH arguments we've heard for 40+ years.
The problem is that the schedule's not balanced. Everybody plays 20 games agaisnt the other league, but they don't play the same teams. In the Central, the Pirates play six games against the Tigers, the defending divisional champion. That's the most in the National League Central. The Cubs and Reds play the Tigers just four times, the Brewers and Cardinals three times. The Brewers get six games against the woeful Minnesota Twins, compared to four for the Cardinals and Pirates and three for the Cubs and Reds. Here are the weighted won-lost records of each National League Central team's American League opponents this year:
- .511 Reds
- .504 Pirates
- .503 Cardinals
- .498 Cubs
- .495 Brewers
Granted, those aren't huge differences--over 162 games, the Reds' average opponent would be 83-79, while the Brewers' would be 80-82--but why should there be a difference at all? And I'm not factoring in home-and-away games. For example, the Cardinals have three games against the Tigers, who won 90 games last year and are 6-0 this year, at home and none on the road. The Pirates have three games against the Royals, who won 89 games last year and are 6-0 this year, on the road and none at home. If I tweak the weighted won-lost records by home/road splits, using the overall average that home teams win 54% of games, I get this:
- .511 Reds
- .505 Pirates
- .503 Cardinals
- .497 Cubs
- .497 Brewers
Again, not huge differences, but one game could be the difference between first place and a wild card, or a wild card and going home. If we're going to have interleague play, shouldn't it be balanced? Four games, two home and two away, against each opponent in the other league would do it. As is, we could get pennant races decided by the schedule instead of the players. And it's worth emphasizing that the Pirates play a tougher interleague schedule than any team in their division other than the Reds.
There's a reason for the unbalanced interleague schedule. It allows for six games--three home, three away--between natural interleague rivals, like Mets/Yankees and Dodgers/Angels. That, of course, limits the number of games with other teams. In the National League Central, there are six games between the Cubs and White Sox for supremacy of Chicago, six games between the Cardinals and Royals for supremacy of Missouri, six between the Reds and Indians for supremacy of Ohio, and six between the Brewers and Twins for supremacy of States You'd Best Avoid In The Winter. For the Pirates, though, their natural rival is probably cross-state Philadelphia, which is already in the National League. So instead...Hey, let's replay the 1909 World Series, every year! Pirates beat the Tigers, four games to three! Honus* outshines Ty! Unfortunately, 106 years later, the Pirates are stuck playing six games against a team that's won its division five straight times.
*The Honus Wagner/Ty Cobb thing was the big story of the series, as the Pirates shortstop and the Tigers right fielder were their respective leagues' big stars (and batting champions). Wagner, 35, easily outhit Cobb in the Series, batting .333 with a .967 OPS, compared to the 22-year-old Cobb's .231/.656. And please, don't say Honus as in bonus. It's pronounced hah-niss, like..um...hah-niss.
Friday, April 10, 2015
0-3
The Pirates have made the postseason 16 times. Here's how they did in their first three games in each season:
They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.
Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday.
When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one).
Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.
- 1903: 3-0
- 1909: 1-2 (won first game, then dropped three straight, all to Cincinnati)
- 1925: 1-2 (eventually slipped to 1-6)
- 1927: 3-0
- 1960: 1-2
- 1970: 1-2
- 1971: 3-0
- 1972: 1-2
- 1974: 0-3 (ultimately 0-6)
- 1975: 3-0
- 1979: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
- 1990: 2-1
- 1991: 2-1
- 1992: 2-1
- 2013: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
- 2014: 2-1
So yeah. They've never opened a season 0-3, as they have in 2015, and gone on to win the World Series. (They got bounced in the NLCS in 1974 after starting 0-3, three games to one). But there is certainly precedence for a slow start by a successful team, including three of the five teams that won the World Series (1909, 1925, and 1979). So don't freak out. Yet.
Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers
Well, at least somebody will win! Both teams enter the three-game series in Milwaukee 0-3. At least one team will exit it with victories. Nobody will notice, though, since the Red Sox are playing the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, so we know where the national media will be solely focused.They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.
Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday.
When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one).
Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Flyover: Milwaukee Brewers
This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. I was doing these alphabetically--got through Detroit--but I'm going to jump around now, for three reasons. First, I haven't been able to post as frequently as I wanted. Second, at this point in the season, I think the interest in non-contenders (the Florida Marlins are next alphabetically) is pretty limited. Finally, in September, with all the minor league callups, the mix of players for teams not in the pennant race can get pretty diluted. So I'm going to pick these based on my interest.
Let's start with a tale of woe: The Milwaukee Brewers.
How Are They Doing Lately? Thirty days ago, the Brew Crew was in first place in the National League Central (as they'd been every day since April 5), two games ahead of St. Louis and two and a half ahead of Pittsburgh. They had the third-best record in the league, just half a game behind Washington. Since then, they're 10-17, second-worst in the league, and they've fallen not only out of first place but also out of a playoff spot, as they're a game and a half behind the Pirates for the second wild card spot entering play today. What happened?
What's Going Right? This is going to be a short list, since over the last 30 days, the Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, while giving up 5.0, the most (by a quarter of a run). The offense has put up mediocre but not terrible raw statistics (ninth in batting, eighth in on base percentage, tenth in slugging) but they haven't bunched their hits together in order to score runs.
What's Going Wrong? I keep repeating this in these reviews, but it's because it comes up as such an important factor: The On The Field Of Play pitching mantra is It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, Brewers pitchers have been third worst in the league at throwing strikes (47% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a league average of 49%) and last in getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (29% compared to a league average of 31%). In other words, the pitchers aren't getting pitches in the strike zone, and when they don't, they're not fooling batters. They've probably been a bit unlucky, as they're allowing a .324 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .298. A large deviation from the league average is usually indicative of luck. Nonetheless, the starters' ERA of 4.68 is the league's worst, and the relievers' 4.36 is the fifth worst.
The offense hasn't been standout terrible, just overall not very good.
Who's Hot? Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a fringe MVP candidate, has been OK over the last 30 days, batting .288 with a .362 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage. The team's other standout this year, center fielder Carlos Gomez, has a .274/.379/.479 slash line. Every one of those figures I listed, other than Gomez's on base percentage, is equal to or worse than the player's season-long average, but it's not easy coming up with happy stories here. The best pitcher over the past 30 days, easily, has been starter Mike Fiers, who is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA.
Who's Not? Three starters have ERAs over 5.50 over the past 30 days: Wily Peralta (5.74), Kyle Lohse (6.04), and Matt Garza (9.00). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has blown only one save but he's compiled a 5.40 ERA, giving up five walks and five homers over his past 10 innings. (Frame of reference: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has given up three more homers, for a total of eight, over 184.2 innings this year).
All-or-nothing first baseman Mark Reynolds has been nothing over the last 30 days, batting .091 with a .114 slugging percentage. That's three singles, one double, and eleven strikeouts over 44 at bats. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is batting .244 with only a .262 on base percentage.
What's the Outlook? At this point, the Brewers need help to make the postseason, though they've picked things up of late, winning three of their last four entering today's game against the Reds. After today, they have three games in St. Louis, three in Pittsburgh, three in Cincinnati, and then three at home against the Cubs. Their closest rival, the Pirates, have an easier schedule, but not by much: six games at home (three for the Brewers), remaining games against teams with a weighted won-lost percentage of .486 (.498 for the Brewers). If the Brewers are going to make the postseason, it seems, they'll have to continue their mastery of the Pirates, against whom they're 11-5 this year. I wouldn't rule them out yet.
Let's start with a tale of woe: The Milwaukee Brewers.
How Are They Doing Lately? Thirty days ago, the Brew Crew was in first place in the National League Central (as they'd been every day since April 5), two games ahead of St. Louis and two and a half ahead of Pittsburgh. They had the third-best record in the league, just half a game behind Washington. Since then, they're 10-17, second-worst in the league, and they've fallen not only out of first place but also out of a playoff spot, as they're a game and a half behind the Pirates for the second wild card spot entering play today. What happened?
What's Going Right? This is going to be a short list, since over the last 30 days, the Brewers have scored 3.4 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, while giving up 5.0, the most (by a quarter of a run). The offense has put up mediocre but not terrible raw statistics (ninth in batting, eighth in on base percentage, tenth in slugging) but they haven't bunched their hits together in order to score runs.
What's Going Wrong? I keep repeating this in these reviews, but it's because it comes up as such an important factor: The On The Field Of Play pitching mantra is It's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. Over the past 30 days, Brewers pitchers have been third worst in the league at throwing strikes (47% of pitches in the strike zone compared to a league average of 49%) and last in getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (29% compared to a league average of 31%). In other words, the pitchers aren't getting pitches in the strike zone, and when they don't, they're not fooling batters. They've probably been a bit unlucky, as they're allowing a .324 batting average on balls in play, compared to a league average of .298. A large deviation from the league average is usually indicative of luck. Nonetheless, the starters' ERA of 4.68 is the league's worst, and the relievers' 4.36 is the fifth worst.
The offense hasn't been standout terrible, just overall not very good.
Who's Hot? Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a fringe MVP candidate, has been OK over the last 30 days, batting .288 with a .362 on base percentage and a .442 slugging percentage. The team's other standout this year, center fielder Carlos Gomez, has a .274/.379/.479 slash line. Every one of those figures I listed, other than Gomez's on base percentage, is equal to or worse than the player's season-long average, but it's not easy coming up with happy stories here. The best pitcher over the past 30 days, easily, has been starter Mike Fiers, who is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA.
Who's Not? Three starters have ERAs over 5.50 over the past 30 days: Wily Peralta (5.74), Kyle Lohse (6.04), and Matt Garza (9.00). Closer Francisco Rodriguez has blown only one save but he's compiled a 5.40 ERA, giving up five walks and five homers over his past 10 innings. (Frame of reference: Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has given up three more homers, for a total of eight, over 184.2 innings this year).
All-or-nothing first baseman Mark Reynolds has been nothing over the last 30 days, batting .091 with a .114 slugging percentage. That's three singles, one double, and eleven strikeouts over 44 at bats. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is batting .244 with only a .262 on base percentage.
What's the Outlook? At this point, the Brewers need help to make the postseason, though they've picked things up of late, winning three of their last four entering today's game against the Reds. After today, they have three games in St. Louis, three in Pittsburgh, three in Cincinnati, and then three at home against the Cubs. Their closest rival, the Pirates, have an easier schedule, but not by much: six games at home (three for the Brewers), remaining games against teams with a weighted won-lost percentage of .486 (.498 for the Brewers). If the Brewers are going to make the postseason, it seems, they'll have to continue their mastery of the Pirates, against whom they're 11-5 this year. I wouldn't rule them out yet.
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Trailing 30 - September 7
Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Check out the records of the Angels and Cardinals on one hand, Oakland and Milwaukee on the other. This is how leads go away.
American League National League
Team W-L Team W-L
1. Los Angeles 19-8 1. Washington 17-10
2. Kansas City 18-9 2. St. Louis 17-12
Seattle 18-9 3. San Francisco 15-11
4. Cleveland 16-9 4. Atlanta 16-12
5. Baltimore 17-10 5. LA, Phi 14-12
Worst Team W-L Worst Team W-L
1. Texas 8-20 1. Cincinnati 8-19
2. Chicago 8-17 2. Arizona 10-17
3. Minnesota 10-19 3. Milwaukee 11-16
4. Oakland 10-17 4. Pittsburgh 12-15
5. Toronto 11-14 5. Col, NY 13-14
5. Toronto 11-14 5. Col, NY 13-14
Batting Average Batting Average
1. Abreu, Chi .400 1. Jay, SL .405
2. V Martinez, Det .375 2. Posey, SF .385
3. Altuve, Hou .364 3. Yelich, Fla .370
4. Martin, Tex .344 4. Panik, SF .365
5. Santana, Min .341 5. Crawford, LA .364
Lowest Batting Average Lowest Batting Average
1. Singleton, Hou .160 1. Gregorius, SD .136
2. Walters, Cle .171 2. Baez, Chi .161
3. Middlebrooks, Bos.180 3. Granderson, NY .167
4. Dominguez, Hou .183 4. Alcantara, Chi .182
4. Dominguez, Hou .183 4. Alcantara, Chi .182
5. Moss, Oak .188 5. Puig, LA .188
On-Base Percentage On-Base Percentage
1. V Martinez, Det .481 1. Jay, SL .495
2. Abreu, Chi .465 2. Werth, Was .477
3. Ortiz, Bos .440 3. Freeman, Atl .455
4. Beltre, Tex .435 4. Yelich, Fla .444
5. Mauer, Min .413 5. Stanton, Fla .438
Slugging Percentage Slugging Percentage
1. Carter, Hou .634 1. Posey, SF .683
2. V Martinez, Det .616 2. Stanton, Fla .629
3. Ortiz, Bos .598 3. Dickerson, Col .615
4. Gordon, KC .590 4. Gonzalez, LA .596
5. Prado, NY .563 5. Werth, Was .588
Home Runs Home Runs
1. Carter, Hou 12 1. Stanton, Fla 9
2. Gordon, KC 9 Dickerson, Col 9
2. Gordon, KC 9 Dickerson, Col 9
3. Bautista, Tor 8 3. 4 with 7
Davis, Bal 8
5. 3 with 7
Runs Runs
5. 3 with 7
Runs Runs
1. Santana, Min 24 1. Posey, SF 22
2. V Martinez, Det 23 Rendon, Was 22
3. Holt, Bos 22 3. Dickerson, Col 21
4. Gordon, KC 21 Yelich, Fla 21
5. 4 with 20 5. 2 with 20
RBI RBI
4. Gordon, KC 21 Yelich, Fla 21
5. 4 with 20 5. 2 with 20
RBI RBI
1. Carter, Hou 28 1. Stanton, Fla 28
V Martinez, Det 28 2. Upton, Ari 27
3. Cespedes, Bos 27 3. Dickerson, Col 24
4. Vargas, Min 25 4. Holliday, SL 23
5. Longoria, TB 24 5. Posey, SF 22
5. Longoria, TB 24 5. Posey, SF 22
Stolen Bases Stolen Bases
1. Dyson, KC 11 1. Hamilton, Cin 12
2. Schafer, Min 9 Revere, Phi 12
3. Cain, KC 8 3. Crawford, LA 8
Ellsbury, NY 8 Inciarte, Ari 8
5. Kipnis, Cle 7 5. Gordon, LA 7
5. Kipnis, Cle 7 5. Gordon, LA 7
Saves Saves
1. Rodney, Sea 12 1. Kimbrel, Atl 11
2. Holland, KC 10 2. Jansen, LA 9
3. Britton, Bal 9 Rondon, Chi 9
4. Street, LA 7 4. Papelbon, Phi 8
4. Street, LA 7 4. Papelbon, Phi 8
5. Nathan, Det 6 Rosenthal, SL 8
ERA ERA
1. Carrasco, Cle 0.90 1. Peavy, SF 1.04
2. Cobb, TB 0.96 2. Cosart, Fla 1.27
3. Smyly, TB 1.28 3. Kershaw, LA 1.32
4. Shoemaker, LA 1.31 4. Volquez, Pit 1.69
5. Paxton, Sea 1.47 5. Fiers, Mil 1.94
Worst ERA Worst ERA
1. Kazmir, Oak 7.42 1. Lyles, Col 6.04
2. Webster, Bos 6.40 2. Harang, Atl 5.77
3. Danks, Chi 6.11 3. Vogelsong, SF 5.40
4. Nolasco, Min 5.76 4. Simon, Cin 5.40
5. Happ, Tor 5.72 5. Lackey, SL 5.30
WHIP WHIP
1. Smyly, TB 0.69 1. Fiers, Mil 0.74
2. Carrasco, Cle 0.78 2. Kershaw, LA 0.76
3. Shoemaker, LA 0.79 3. Nuno, Ari 0.80
3. Shoemaker, LA 0.79 3. Nuno, Ari 0.80
4. Tillman, Bal 0.79 4. Bumgarner, SF 0.84
5. Duffy, KC 0.91 5. Wood, Atl 0.92
5. Duffy, KC 0.91 5. Wood, Atl 0.92
Strikeouts Strikeouts
1. Scherzer, Det 55 1. Bumgarner, SF 46
2. Kluber, Cle 46 Fiers, Mil 46
3. Sale, Chi 45 3. Burnett, Phi 45
4. Price, Det 44 Strasburg, Was 45
5. Samardzija, Oak 41 5. Cueto, Cin 41
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