Latest from Banished to the Pen

Here are the top and bottom five performers for the 30 days ending Sunday, June 26, featuring the strangely alluring second-worst OPS hitters in each league.

I did a National League Central podcast with Alex Crisafulli (@alexcards79) and Eric Roseberry (@Ericdroseberry) last night. It's here. 

Catchup

I know, posting's been light here. I've been writing a fair amount on other sites and I've been remiss in not posting it here. Here are some links.

On May 2, I wrote about Quality Starts as Baseball Prospectus. A lot of people deride quality starts, which are defined as a starting pitcher going six or more innings while allowing three or fewer runs. I conclude that quality starts are, in aggregate, very well-pitched games. Scroll down to the end of the article for an enlightening comparison.

On May 12, also at Baseball Prospectus, I explored whether there are some hitters who consistently perform better with runners in scoring position. Short answer: It doesn't seem that way. Longer answer: Try flipping a coin six times.

On May 16, I wrote about the Pirates' and Reds' proclivity for hitting one another's batters with pitches at Baseball Prospectus. They do it a lot, but there's not a lot of evidence that it's a case of eye-for-an-eye retribution (though 2016 may be different).

On May 17, I initiated my Trailing 30 feature for 2016 at Banished to the Pen. Among other things, I found that as of that date, there were three Pirates starters among the bottom five for ERA over the past 30 days.

The Two Lousy Clubs That Messed Up the Pirates' Season

The Pirates finished the year with a 98-64 record, the second best in all of baseball. That ties them with the 1979 and 1908 clubs for the third most wins in franchise history. (The 1909 Pirates won 110 and the 1902 club won 103.) The Pirates' record, however, included a losing record against two of the worst teams in the game, the Cincinnati Reds (8-11) and the Milwaukee Brewers (9-10).

Let's break that down. In games in which the Reds didn't play the Pirates, they were 53-90. In games in which the Brewers didn't play the Pirates, they were 58-85. So in their non-Pirates games, the two clubs combined for a 111-175 record, a .388 winning percentage. Had they played at that pace in their 38 games against the Pirates, they would have won .388 x 38 games = 15 games, losing 23. Turned around, the Pirates would have gone 23-15 against the Reds and Brewers.

The Pirates were 81-43 in their games that weren't against Cincinnati or Milwaukee. Had they gone 23-15 against the two clubs--that, is had they been as successful as the rest of the teams in the majors were--their record would have been 104-58. That would have given the Pirates the best record in baseball. They would be enjoying four off days, looking forward to Wednesday's wild card game between the Cardinals and Cubs to see whom they'd face at home to kick off the Division Series on Friday.

Next Up: The Suddenly Competitive Cincinnati Reds

Not for anything good, mind you. Here are the teams with the eight worst records in the majors as of the All-Star break: 
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 29 62 .319  --
Milwaukee    38 52 .422  9.5
Miami        38 51 .427 10
Colorado     39 49 .443 11.5
Oakland      41 50 .451 12
Cincinnati   39 47 .453 12.5

San Diego    41 49 .456 12.5
Seattle      41 48 .461 13

Here's where it was at the start of September:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 52 80 .394  --
Miami        53 79 .402  1
Colorado     53 76 .411  2.5
Atlanta      54 77 .412  2.5
Cincinnati   54 76 .415  3
Milwaukee    55 75 .423  4

Oakland      58 74 .439  6
Seattle      61 71 .462  9

And today:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 62 97 .390  --
Cincinnati   63 96 .396  1
Atlanta      64 95 .403  2
Colorado     66 93 .415  4
Oakland      66 93 .415  4
Milwaukee    68 91 .428  6

Miami        69 90 .434  7
Detroit      73 85 .462 11.5

Why's this relevant? Well, the worst record earns you the No. 1 pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's valuable. First picks, historically, do considerably better than other picks, even No. 2. So the difference between being the worst and the second-worst is significant. Cincinnati's been making an impressive drive for the that top draft choice! (And what in the world have the Marlins been thinking?)


How Are They Doing Lately? When a team moves up in the ranks of the worst teams in baseball, it's not because they're doing well. The Reds have lost 12 in a row going into the season-ending weekend series at PNC Park. The 1993 Reds also lost 12 straight, and the team could tie the 1930 and 1945 Reds with 13 straight losses tonight. (The all-time franchise record of 19 straight losses, set in 1914, is out of reach.) Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati has the worst record in the league over the last 30 days, 9-19. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, .001 runs per game more than the fourth-worst Cardinals, while giving up 5.6 runs per game, easily the most in the league, over a half a run more than the next-worst Braves.

What's Going Right? I've mentioned this a number of times, but two pitching figures that can reflect luck are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners stranded. Most players and teams tend toward the league averages (.299 batting average on balls in play and 73% strand rate in the National League over the past 30 days). The Reds have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the stranded the lowest percentage of baserunners over the past 30 days, indicating they've probably been a little unlucky. 

What's Going Wrong? Over the past 30 days, the Reds are eleventh in the league in batting (.248), 13th in on base percentage (.308), and 13th in slugging (.388). They've struck out the fourth most frequently and walked the fourth most infrequently. They've had the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. And the pitching has completely melted down; the bullpen ERA of 4.70 is the third worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the starters' 5.82 ERA is the second worst. 

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is closing out a sensational season, batting .329 with a .487 on base percentage and .482 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. He's got a .547 on base percentage in the second half of the season. The only players who've bested that over half a season are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.317/.336/.433 slash line) is also winding up a strong second half; his .759 OPS trails only the Mets' Daniel Murphy (.824) and the Pirates' Neil Walker (.762) among regular second basemen in the National League since the All-Star break. Closer Aroldis Chapman, in limited save opportunities, has a 0.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 9.2 innings, covering the last 30 days.

Who's Not? No Reds starter has an ERA lower than 4.73 over the past 30 days, including the weekend's starters, Keyvius Sampson (6.52), Brandon Finnegan (6.00), and Josh Smith (7.07). The weakest bats over the past 30 days have been those of left/center fielder Jason Bourgeois (.237/.297/.335), utility man Ivan DeJesus (.222/.246/.370) and catcher Tucker Barnhart (.179/.238/.196).

What's the Outlook? The Pirates can't completely coast. Their magic number over the Cubs for home field in Wednesday's wild card play-in game is two, meaning they need a combination of two victories over the Reds and/or Brewers victories over the Cubs over the weekend to put the game in PNC Park. But we should expect to see some position players get time off. As for the Reds, they have to hope the Phillies can extend their four-game winning streak at home against the Marlins, opening the door for Cincinnati to nab the top draft pick next summer.

Next Up: The 1927 New York Yankees

OK, not really. But the 2015 Cincinnati Reds have played the Pirates as if they were the 1927 Yankees. They're 9-4 against the Pirates, outscoring them 64-45. Against the Reds this year, the Pirates:

• Were swept in Cincinnati in the season's first three games.
• Dropped two of three at home in May.
• Did it again in June. 
• Split four games in Cincinnati a little over a month ago.

As I pointed out last week, among National League Central teams, the Pirates have had the most success against the Cardinals, who have the best record in baseball. They're now 8-8 against the Redbirds. They've had the most problems with the Reds, who currently have the fourth-worst record in the majors. In fact, if you take away the Reds' games with the Pirates, Cincinnati's record would drop to 47-75, a .385 winning percentage that would be the worst to date.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 8-20 over the past 30 days, a record that would be the worst in the National League were it not for the almost unfathomably bad Atlanta Braves, who are 4-23. The Reds haven't really played as badly as their record would suggest, though. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, eighth in the league, and given up 5.0 per game, the fourth most. That's not a great record, but it's more indicative of a 12-16 team than one that's 8-20.

What's Going Right? The Reds' bullpen has a 3.23 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth best in the National League, though with the second lowest strikeout rate and sixth highest walk rate in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's compiled that spiffy ERA despite pitching 103 innings over the past 30 days, the second highest total in the National League. That's a reflection of how bad the Reds' all-rookie starting pitching has been: 6.01 ERA, second-lowest rate of ground balls induced, highest rate of fly balls going over the fence. The offense has been nothing special: twelfth in batting average and on base percentage, eleventh in slugging percentage.

Who's Hot? Reds fans haven't had a lot to cheer for, but first baseman Joey Votto's been one of them. He's having a historically great second half, and over the past 30 days, he's tied for second in the league in batting average (.356), is second in slugging percentage (.700), and leads the league in on base percentage (.536). The team's also gotten good offensive performances from second baseman Brandon Phillips (.349/.395/.500 slash line) and shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.274/.325/.519). Raisel Iglesias, Tuesday night's starter, has been one of the league's best pitchers over the past 30 days: 2.38 ERA, 44 strikeouts and just 26 hits and walks over 34 innings. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual self: five saves, 16 strikeouts over his last 9.2 innings, but setup man J.J. Hoover, despite a 3.09 ERA and five holds, has played with fire, with eight unintentional walks and three homers in 11.2 innings.

Who's Not? Right fielder Jay Bruce has been the anti-Votto: .202/.242/.399 since the All-Star break, .168/.204/.318 over the past 30 days. With center fielder Billy Hamilton disabled and former left fielder Marlon Byrd traded, the Reds have struggled to get production from their outfield. Outside of Iglesias, the Reds' other rookie starters have combined for a 7.11 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The series with the Reds gives the Pirates a chance to pick up ground on their two National League Central foes, the Cardinals and Cubs, who'll battle each other over three games at Wrigley Field. But for that to happen, the Pirates will have to figure out how to beat one of the worst teams in baseball. They haven't been able to so far this year.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

No team's given the Pirates more trouble this year than the Reds. The Reds are 44-54, in fourth place in the National League Central, but they've racked up a 7-2 record to date against the Bucs. The Pirates were 1-5 in their first six games after the All-Star break and have gone 5-1 in the six games since. They will try to push their overall post-break record above .500 over four games in Cincinnati starting tonight.

How Are They Doing Lately? They've thrown in the towel on 2015, trading their ace starter and pending free agent Johnny Cueto to Kansas City. By the time Sunday's game rolls around, the Reds' scheduled starting pitcher, Mike Leake, could be gone as well. Right fielder Jay Bruce has been discussed as a potential trade chip too. The Reds haven't played well, with ten wins over the last 30 days, tied with the Braves and Rockies for the fewest in the league, though the Braves have one more loss (15) than the Reds (14). They've scored 3.5 runs per game, tied for the sixth fewest in the league, while allowing 5.00, the second most. As such, they've been a little lucky to have gone 10-14; a team with that sort of run differential is more likely to go 8-16 or so.

What's Going Right? The offense has been...well, not particularly good, but not really bad, either. Over the last 30 days, they're eighth in batting average and slugging percentage and ninth in on base percentage in the 15-team National League. They've been the second toughest team in the league to strike out and they're sixth in home runs. While they've swung at an above-average percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, their low strikeout rate is illustrative of their ability to make contact, as they have the third-highest contact rate on swings in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers have a 4.19 ERA over the past 30 days, third worst in the league, as a way-too-high 28% of baserunners allowed have scored, also third worst. The relievers have been worse, with a cover-your-eyes 5.88 ERA, second worst in the league, and they've earned it more than the starters, with the lowest strikeout rate AND the highest walk rate in the league over the past 30 days. 

Who's Hot? First baseman Joey Votto has been on fire: .386/.514/.639 slash line over the last 30 days, .523/.644/.886 since the All-Star break. I typed all of that correctly: He's gotten on base more than half the time over the last 30 days, and he's gotten hits in over half of his at bats since the break. Bruce has been sensational, too, .303/.347/.596 over the last 30 days. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual dominating self: six saves in ten games over the last 30 days, 18 strikeouts in 10.1 innings, batters whiffing on 39% of their swings against him. (League average is 23%.) Cueto had a 1.59 ERA over five starts in the past 30 days, but he's gone. Leake' ERA over the same period is better, 1.25, but he might get traded too. In fact, the only person in this paragraph who's not been mentioned in trade rumors is Votto, and that's because he's owed $192 million over the next eight years.

Who's Not? I mentioned Cueto, Leake, and Chapman above. Over the last 30 days, the rest of the Reds' pitching staff has a combined ERA of 6.80. On offense, second baseman Brandon Phillips is hitting .223/.270/.266 over the past 30 days, catcher Brayan Pena .185/.228/.185. They have a total of four extra-base hits (all doubles by Phillips) over 148 at-bats between them. All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier's hit .215/.248/.376 over the period, though the Pirates have been his personal slump-buster this season, as he's hitting .359/.419/.846 with five homers, ten RBI, and ten runs scored in nine games against Pittsburgh this year. 

What's the Outlook? Their 2-7 record against Cincinnati so far this year notwithstanding, the Pirates are facing a diminished Reds team from the one they faced earlier in the season, and they could become more diminished by tomorrow's trade deadline. The Pirates' rejuvinated offense (38 runs in the past six games) will face rookie David Holmberg (making his 2015 debut; he had a 4.50 ERA over four starts in 2014), rookie Michael Lorenzen (8.83 ERA over his last four starts), rookie Raisel Iglesias (6.19) and, if he's still with the club, Leake over the four game series. That makes for good prospects for improving on 2-7.

Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royal

Johnny Cueto, of course, lost the most famous Pirates game of this generation, the 6-2 victory over Cincinnati in the wild card game of 2013. Other than that, though:

• He has an 18-4 record against Pittsburgh. That's twice as many victories as he has against any other club.
• He's pitched two of his career five shutouts against the Pirates.
• His career 2.13 ERA against the Pirates is his lowest against any team (minimum 50 innings pitched), as his 0.984 WHIP.
• His slash line allowed against Pittsburgh: .201 batting average, .260 on base percentage, .324 slugging percentage. Naturally, each of those are the lowest he's allowed (minimum 50 innings pitched). That's basically like the Dodgers' Zack Greinke last season. As a hitter. Greinke, a pitcher, batted .200/.262/.350 in 2014.

The Pirates have ten more games this year against the Reds. They'll be glad to not have to face their old nemesis. He's been traded to Kansas City. But he's a free agent at the end of the season, so he could come back to the National League.

Strength of Schedule

You see strength of schedule, or SOS, discussed a lot with college football. Since every college football team plays a different schedule, some against top-25 foes, some against creampuffs, strength of schedule helps you understand whether a team that's 9-1 got there by playing teams with winning or losing records.

It isn't as relevant in baseball, because within a division, teams play more or less the same schedules. Teams in the Pirates' division, for example, play 19 games against each of their Central divisional foes (that's 74 games), 34 games against each of the Eastern and Western divisions (another 68), and 20 interleague games against the American League Central. The schedules outside their home divisions aren't exactly balanced, but they're fairly close. So every team plays about the same schedule, and if everybody plays the same schedule, strength of schedule isn't all that relevant.

When it does become important, though, is during the season. Teams don't play the same schedule all season long. Some teams play easier foes in the first half of the season, some player easier foes in the second half, and some play a fairly balanced schedule. How about in 2015?

To answer this, I looked at the remaining games (after today) for each team in the National League Central. For example, here's the remaining schedule for the Pirates and each foe's winning percentage entering play today:

• Ten against the Reds (.455)
• Nine each against the Cardinals (.637) and Cubs (.539)
• Seven each against the Brewers (.435) and Rockies (.435)
• Six against the Dodgers (.565)
• Four each against the Giants (.527), Marlins (.418), and Nationals (.551)
• Three each against the Diamondbacks (.472), Mets (.516), and Royals (.607)
• Two against the Twins (.549)

If I multiply each of those winning percentages by the games against the team and divide the sum by the games remaining for the Pirates after today, 71, I get a weighted average won-lost record of .514 for the teams the Pirates will face the rest of the season. 

How good is that? It's pretty good. The National League, the teams with the best won-lost records for the rest of the season are the Reds (.539), Rockies (.518), and Pirates (.514). (The poor Reds have 13 games against the Cardinals, ten each against the Cubs and Pirates, seven against the Dodgers--all playoff contenders--as well as four games against the Mets and three against the Giants, both of which have winning records.) The easiest schedules are those of the Mets (.469), Padres (.473), and National (.475). (The National League East has the two worst teams in the league so far, the Marlins and Phillies, against whom the Mets and Nationals still have 19 games each while the Padres have 13, helping explain their relatively easy schedules.)

Here's a way of looking at this: The Pirates' foes have a winning percentage of .514. Multiply that by their 71 games remaining, and the Pirates are playing teams that could be expected to win .514 x 71 = 36.5 games and lose 34.5. Let's do this exercise for the entire National League Central:

   Team            W-L    W     L    GB

   Chicago        .488  35.1  36.9  ---

   St. Louis      .490  34.3  35.7  0.2

   Milwaukee      .513  35.4  33.6  1.8

   Pittsburgh     .514  36.5  34.5  1.9

   Cincinnati     .539  38.8  33.1  3.7

   

The games behind column is the opposite of what you'd normally see, as it displays the number of games each teams trails the Cubs, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the division. The Reds' remaining schedule is against teams that are 3.7 games better than the Cubs' foes applied to the remainder of the schedule. The Pirates trail the Cubs by 1.9 games and the Cardinals by 1.7 games, indicating that the Bucs' remaining schedule is about two games tougher than that of their divisional opponents. That'll make the task of catching the Cardinals (they trail by 4.5 games entering play today), and holding off the Cubs (they're 4.5 games ahead) that much harder.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

After an off day, the Pirates will try to get back on track after the weekend's shellacking on the hands of the Washington Nationals (three losses by a combined score of 19-3). They open a three game series tonight against the Reds, against whom they're only 1-5 so far this year.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 14-12 over the past 30 days, which isn't fabulous, but it ties them with the Cubs for the third-best record in the National League during the period, trailing only the 19-8 Pirates and 18-8 Cardinals. Yes, the four best teams in the National League over the past 30 days are all in the Central division. They've scored 4.5 runs per game over the past 30 games, second in the league, and allowed 3.8 per game, fourth fewest. So they've been pretty good. Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face their longtime nemesis, Johnny Cueto, whose elbow is bothering him. He was scheduled to start tonight's game but he'll rest until Friday. The Pirates will instead face Josh Smith, in his first major league start. That might sound promising, but the Pirates faced the Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann in the Brewer's first start, and lost 4-1, as the rookie allowed one run over seven innings.

What's Going Right? Well, when you're second in runs scored and fourth in runs prevented, a lot of stuff's going right. They're only ninth in batting over the past 30 days but sixth in on base percentage and second in slugging. They've hit the second most homers and drawn the fifth most walks. They have the sixth-best starters' ERA and the sixth-best relievers' ERA over the span. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's blown five saves, the second-most in the National League over the past 30 days. And the Cueto injury is worrisome. He's the team's best pitcher and most valuable trade chip--more on that in a sec--but he started only 24 games in 2011 and 11 in 2013 due to health issues. The Reds are hoping he holds up in this odd-numbered year.

The Reds also face a fish-or-cut-bait issue. They're 32-36, fourth in the Central, 12.5 games behind the Cardinals and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card, tied with the Padres, with four other teams between them and Chicago. One of their best starters, Homer Bailey, is out until sometime next season with Tommy John surgery. Do they keep pushing for the postseason this year, or do they see what they can get for Cueto in a trade? Do they try to trade closer Aroldis Chapman, who's arbitration eligible next year? These questions won't get answered in the three games with the Pirates, but they hang over the club.

Who's Hot? Third baseman Todd Frazier's been on fire: .339/.368/.761 slash line over the last 30 days, first in runs scored, second in homers, tied for second in RBI. First baseman Joey Votto's been really good too, at .308/.427/.637. Frazier's first in the league in slugging, Votto's fourth in on base percentage. Center fielder Billy Hamilton has struggled to get on base (.289 on base percentage in the past 30 days), but he's put pressure on pitchers when he gets on, leading the majors with 14 steals. Every starter--Cueto, Mike Leake, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen--has been OK, though the latter two get an unusually small number of strikeouts. In the bullpen, Chapman's out on paternity leave, so the closer role will shift to J.J. Hoover. Chapman, as usual, has struck out a ridiculous number of batters--43% of the batters he's faced over the past 30 days. compared to a league average of 22%--while Hoover, who's allowed no runs in his last 13.1 innings, has struck out a below-average 14% of batters.

Who's Not? Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.226/.258/.298 over the past 30 days) is showing his age, but the only other Reds batters with poor results of late are part-timers. He's neither hot nor cold at the major league level, but tonight's starter, Smith, is a 27-year-old rookie, and 27 is pretty old to be breaking into the majors. 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are facing a Reds team that's played well lately. The big question, to me, will be whether the Pirates pitchers can cool off the Reds' hot bats, especially Frazier's (four homers in six games against Pittsburgh). 

Pete Rose

You may have heard that ESPN published evidence that Pete Rose bet on baseball games while he was a player, in contrast to his insistence to the contrary.

Two things about Pete Rose:

1. I never cared for him all that much as a player. I mean, I fully acknowledge he was one of the best ever. But I always found him to be overly self-promoting and, on his most famous team, the mid-1970s Big Red Machine, only the third-best player on the club (Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan, if you must ask). He was a leadoff hitter with a .375 on base percentage, which is very good but not great. He was a lousy base stealer (57% lifetime success rate), didn't hit home runs (160 lifetime), and, while he played a lot of positions, left field was the only one he played particularly well. But he had amazing longevity, and was very, very good overall for a very, very long time.
2. People get upset that he's lied about his gambling, pretty much every step of the way. Maybe it's a moral failing or something, but I just don't get excited about lying. Pete Rose lied, Alex Rodriguez lied, politicians lie, all true enough, but let's face it, you and I lie a lot, too. When lies get people hurt, yes, that's bad. When people lie to cover their butts, as Rose or Rodriguez did, well, is it really that different from the lies we tell when our boss asks us about the report we forgot to complete, or our spouse asks us whether we remembered to get bread on the way back from work*? I just don't see it.

While I don't get excited about lying, I do get excited over rules. And there's really only one that's relevant here: 

Rule 21 Misconduct, (d) Betting on Ball Games, Any player, umpire, or club, or league official, or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform shall be declared permanently ineligible.

He bet on baseball while he was in uniform. Open and shut. There isn't a statute of limitations. He's permanently ineligible, which means he can't go into the Hall of Fame. Period. The newest revelations don't change that at all.

*No, my wife usually doesn't read this. So don't tell her, OK? And for the record, she generally doesn't eat bread.

Bucs Clutch?

As I pointed out yesterday, the Pirates are last in the league in batting with the bases empty but fifth in batting with runners in scoring position. I wrote, "It seems as if they're always leaving runners on base--Saturday night's 18 runners left on base was pull-your-hair-out frustrating." But, as I noted further, "The problem isn't hitting with runners on base; it's getting runners on base in the first place." 

We've come to associate batting with runners in scoring position with being clutch. The most recent exemplar is the 2013 Cardinals, who set a record with their .330 batting average with runners in scoring position. (Predictably, that figure fell to .254 in 2014 and it was .264 in 2012, so that .330 was sandwiched between normal figures. Batting with runners in scoring position is generally not replicable, which means that it bounces around from year to year. That indicates there's a good measure of luck involved in this "clutch." measure.)

Now, it's not odd that the Pirates are batting better with runners in scoring position than with the bases empty. That's normal. There are several reasons for this:

• With runners on base, the pitcher's distracted.
• The pitcher has to pitch out of the stretch rather than with a full windup, with runners on base which for many pitchers decreases their effectiveness.
• Infielders can't position themselves optimally, since they may have to hold baserunners on base, creating more holes in the infield for batted balls to find.
• There is what statisticians call "selection bias." The best pitchers don't allow runners on base, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with the bases empty. Bad pitchers allow lots of baserunners, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Last season, Clayton Kershaw had the best ERA in the National League, and Roberto Hernandez had the worst. They faced roughly the same number of batters. For Hernandez, 55% of opponents' plate appearances were with the bases empty and 28% with runners in scoring position. For Kershaw, those figures are 65% and 17%, respectively.  Batters have poorer numbers with the bases empty because, in aggregate, those plate appearances are against better pitchers than plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

So how unusual are the Pirates' figures? Here's a table that illustrates how they're doing. I've listed, for each of the past five seasons, the team with the greatest difference (measured by OPS) between batting with runners in scoring position (RISP) and with the bases empty:

I think there are two interesting things here.

1. The Pirates' divergence between batting with runners in scoring position and with the bases empty is the greatest since those record-setting 2013 Cardinals that I mentioned above. What we're seeing so far this year is really unusual.
2. The 2014 Dodgers won their division and had the second-best record in the league. The 2013 Cardinals won their division and had the best record in the league. The 2011 Phillies won their division and had the best record in the league. The only two teams on the list that aren't division leaders are the 2012 Phillies (81-81, third in the National League East) and this year's Pirates.

This isn't to say that the Pirates' batting with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty indicates that they'll win their division. Teams with a .250 on base percentage with the bases empty will struggle to score runs. Rather, it seems reasonable to assume that the wide divergence--nearly 100 points in on base percentage--isn't likely to persist. The Bucs will probably do better with the bases empty and may do worse with runners in scoring position going forward. The net effect would be positive. The lack of clutch hitting this year isn't with runners on, it's with nobody on.

Next Up: Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates started their season on April 6 with a three-game series in Cincinnati. Now, a month later, they host the Reds for another three-game series. Here's a look at the Reds over the past month.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 12-13, tied for third in the National League Central with the Pirates. They trail the Cubs by 1.5 games and the red-hot Cardinals by 7.

What's Gong Right? The Reds starters have been good: 3.48 ERA, fifth in the league. They've hit a lot of home runs (34, second in the league) but are tied for only ninth in scoring because of a league-worst .226 team batting average. Their base stealing numbers are ridiculous: 29 stolen bases, most in the league, and just one caught stealing.

What's Going Wrong? The Reds relievers have been awful: 5.34 ERA, last in the league by nearly half a run. And, as noted above, they're batting just .226.

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is batting .323 (13th in the league) with a .427 on base percentage (seventh) and .613 slugging percentage (sixth). He is clearly the team leader with the bat. That's not a big surprise; he's the team's biggest star and is bouncing back from an injury-riddled 2014. Shortstop Zack Cozart (who's questionable due to a bruised finger) is hitting .304/.343/.533 with five homers. Now that's a big surprise; Cozart batted .221/.268/.300 last year with four homers all season. Todd Frazier, with eight homers, and Jay Bruce, with five, have also supplied power, though with batting averages of only .215 and .181, respectively. Frazier's tied for first in the league in homers, Votto's tied for third, Cozart and Bruce are tied for tenth.

The Pirates won't have to face their nemesis Johnny Cueto during the series but they will go up against the Reds' other two top starters, Mike Leake (1-1, 3.03 ERA) and the surprising Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 2.03 ERA). Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his normal ridiculous self (five saves, one win in 11 games; 10.2 innings pitched, 19 strikeouts, five hits and no runs allowed) and setup man Tony Cingrani (2.08 ERA in seven games) has been good. The rest of the bullpen's been awful (7.25 ERA). 

Who's Not? I already mentioned Frazier's and Bruce's batting averages. At least they're walking a bit and hitting some homers. That's not true of left fielder Marlon Byrd (.181) and center fielder Billy Hamilton (.204). Hamilton, as usual, contributes strong defense and a lot of speed (13 stolen bases, tops in the league), though his .260 on base percentage (12th lowest in the league) means he's not getting on base enough to steal more bases or score more runs. Catcher Devin Mescoraco will probably see limited or no action against the Pirates due to a sore hip. He's off to a terrible start: two singles in 24 at bats (.083 batting average).

What's the Outlook? The recipe for beating the Reds is pretty simple: Keep Hamilton off the basepaths so he can't go crazy stealing, limit the baserunners in general to lessen the damage from all those home runs, and try to get to the bullpen before Cingrani and, especially, Chapman have a chance to preserve a lead.

The Undefeated Detroit Tigers

After compiling a 2-4 road record against, in all likelihood, the two worst teams in the National League Central, the Pirates play their home opener today against the Detroit Tigers, one of two undefeated teams so far. The other, the Kansas City Royals, are in the Tigers' division, so the two teams are tied for first in the American League Central at 6-0. The Tigers, however, lead the majors in run scored, with 47, and run differential, scoring 31 more than their opponents. They pace the majors in batting average (.355) AND on base percentage (.433) AND slugging percentage (.550), and they're second to the Atlanta Braves in ERA (2.00). They've started the season well, obviously.

This illustrates my gripe with interleague play. It's necessary now, because each league has 15 teams, so in order to have every team active, there has to be at least one interleague game everyday. Fine. I'm not crazy with how baseball did well throughout the 20th century with the two leagues not meeting outside of the All-Star Game and the World Series, but whatever. It doesn't spoil the game for me, even though every year it foments a new round of the same DH arguments we've heard for 40+ years. 

The problem is that the schedule's not balanced. Everybody plays 20 games agaisnt the other league, but they don't play the same teams. In the Central, the Pirates play six games against the Tigers, the defending divisional champion. That's the most in the National League Central. The Cubs and Reds play the Tigers just four times, the Brewers and Cardinals three times. The Brewers get six games against the woeful Minnesota Twins, compared to four for the Cardinals and Pirates and three for the Cubs and Reds. Here are the weighted won-lost records of each National League Central team's American League opponents this year:

• .511 Reds
• .504 Pirates
• .503 Cardinals
• .498 Cubs
• .495 Brewers

Granted, those aren't huge differences--over 162 games, the Reds' average opponent would be 83-79, while the Brewers' would be 80-82--but why should there be a difference at all? And I'm not factoring in home-and-away games. For example, the Cardinals have three games against the Tigers, who won 90 games last year and are 6-0 this year, at home and none on the road. The Pirates have three games against the Royals, who won 89 games last year and are 6-0 this year, on the road and none at home. If I tweak the weighted won-lost records by home/road splits, using the overall average that home teams win 54% of games, I get this:

• .511 Reds
• .505 Pirates
• .503 Cardinals
• .497 Cubs
• .497 Brewers 

Again, not huge differences, but one game could be the difference between first place and a wild card, or a wild card and going home. If we're going to have interleague play, shouldn't it be balanced? Four games, two home and two away, against each opponent in the other league would do it. As is, we could get pennant races decided by the schedule instead of the players. And it's worth emphasizing that the Pirates play a tougher interleague schedule than any team in their division other than the Reds.

There's a reason for the unbalanced interleague schedule. It allows for six games--three home, three away--between natural interleague rivals, like Mets/Yankees and Dodgers/Angels. That, of course, limits the number of games with other teams. In the National League Central, there are six games between the Cubs and White Sox for supremacy of Chicago, six games between the Cardinals and Royals for supremacy of Missouri, six between the Reds and Indians for supremacy of Ohio, and six between the Brewers and Twins for supremacy of States You'd Best Avoid In The Winter. For the Pirates, though, their natural rival is probably cross-state Philadelphia, which is already in the National League. So instead...Hey, let's replay the 1909 World Series, every year! Pirates beat the Tigers, four games to three! Honus* outshines Ty! Unfortunately, 106 years later, the Pirates are stuck playing six games against a team that's won its division five straight times.

*The Honus Wagner/Ty Cobb thing was the big story of the series, as the Pirates shortstop and the Tigers right fielder were their respective leagues' big stars (and batting champions). Wagner, 35, easily outhit Cobb in the Series, batting .333 with a .967 OPS, compared to the 22-year-old Cobb's .231/.656. And please, don't say Honus as in bonus. It's pronounced hah-niss, like..um...hah-niss.

Bizarro Baseball

The season's only a week old, and you can't conclude anything from five or so games. That being said, the National League standings as of this morning are weird.

• In the West, the Los Angeles Dodgers, picked by most people (including me) to lead the division with one of the best records in baseball, are in last with a 2-3 record. The Colorado Rockies, expected to battle with the Arizona Diamondbacks for last, are leading the division with a 4-1 record.
• In the Central, the Cincinnati Reds, largely viewed as a last-place team, are 4-1 and in first. The Pirates, seen challenging the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead, are tied with the Brewers for last at 1-4.
• In the East, the Washington Nationals are the consensus pick for first and a strong World Series candidate. They're tied with the Miami Marlins, who are expected to battle for second and a wild card spot, for last at 1-4. The Atlanta Braves, a rebuilding club anticipated to battle the Philadelphia Phillies for the worst record in the National League, are the senior circuit's only undefeated team at 5-0.

None of this, of course, will last. But it's been an exceptionally unpredictable start of the season.

This instability hasn't carried over to the American League. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, playoff teams last year, are undefeated at 5-0 in the Central division. The Boston Red Sox, seen as candidates for a worst-to-first bounceback season, lead the East at 4-1. The West, a hard division to predict, is a muddle, with two teams at 3-3 and three at 2-3.

0-3

The Pirates have made the postseason 16 times. Here's how they did in their first three games in each season:

• 1903: 3-0
• 1909: 1-2 (won first game, then dropped three straight, all to Cincinnati)
• 1925: 1-2 (eventually slipped to 1-6)
• 1927: 3-0
• 1960: 1-2
• 1970: 1-2
• 1971: 3-0
• 1972: 1-2
• 1974: 0-3 (ultimately 0-6)
• 1975: 3-0
• 1979: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 1990: 2-1
• 1991: 2-1
• 1992: 2-1
• 2013: 1-2 (eventually 1-5)
• 2014: 2-1

So yeah. They've never opened a season 0-3, as they have in 2015, and gone on to win the World Series. (They got bounced in the NLCS in 1974 after starting 0-3, three games to one). But there is certainly precedence for a slow start by a successful team, including three of the five teams that won the World Series (1909, 1925, and 1979). So don't freak out. Yet.

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

Well, at least somebody will win! Both teams enter the three-game series in Milwaukee 0-3. At least one team will exit it with victories. Nobody will notice, though, since the Red Sox are playing the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend, so we know where the national media will be solely focused.

They're both 0-3, but the Brewers enter the series in worse shape. The Reds outscored the Pirates 13-8, and every game but the first of the series was a one-run game. The Brewers were swept by the Rockies in Milwaukee, 10-0, 5-2, and 5-4. The Pirates are ninth in scoring, the Brewers tenth. The Brewers have a slight lead in on base percentage, .278-.276, while the Pirates head in slugging percentage, .308-.290. (If those numbers seem bad, it's because they are, though early April batting stats are depressed by cool weather and a preponderance of aces getting pitching starts.) The Pirates' team ERA of 4.00 is fifth in the league; the Brewers' 6.11 is last. Pittsburgh's starters have been a lot better (3.63 ERA vs. 8.22 for the Brewers) while the Brewers relievers, with a 3.55 ERA, have done better than the Pirates bullpen, which has accounted for a 4.66 ERA (last in the league) and all three of the team's losses. The Pirates haven't been good, of course, but they've been a smidge better than Milwaukee.

Plus, one of the Brewers' best hitters, Ryan Braun, strained a muscle in his side on Monday and didn't start either of the last two games, though he did deliver a pinch-hit RBI single Thursday. 

When Braun's in the lineup, the Brewers feature an almost entirely right-handed hitting lineup (first baseman Adam Lind's the lone lefty). However, the Pirates expect to start lefties Jeff Locke on Friday and Francisco Liriano Sunday, negating the potential platoon advantage. The expected Brewers starters are righties Mike Fiers (6-5 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 71.2 innings last year), Jimmy Nelson (2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 69.1 innings last year), and veteran Kyle Lohse (who surrendered 10 hits and 8 runs in 3.1 innings Monday, striking out only one). 

Look for the Pirates to get on track against the Brew Crew.

Does Johnny Cueto Have the Pirates' Number?

It was, to date, the pinnacle of the Pirates' renaissance. October 1, 2013. National League Wild Card game. The Pirates' first postseason game since 1992, and the first ever at PNC Park. A raucous sellout blackout crowd. (Note to people outside of Pittsburgh: "Blackout" refers to everyone in the stands wearing black. It doesn't have anything to do with a power outage. That, unfortunately, happened to the Pirates' lineup, save Pedro Alvarez, in the Divisional Series against St. Louis.) The Bucs' Francisco Liriano vs. the Reds' Johnny Cueto. And it wasn't close. Marlon Byrd and Russell Martin hit home runs in the second inning. Cueto allowed nine baserunners and four runs before getting pulled in the fourth inning, chants of "CUE-TO" ringing throughout the ballpark. Liriano cruised and the Pirates were 6-2 victors. It was not only an embarrassing defeat for Cueto, who at one point dropped the ball while standing on the mound, it was also the last game for Reds manager Dusty Baker.

Since then, Cueto's faced the Pirates seven times, including yesterday's season opener. The results are pretty overwhelming: 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, five wins for Cueto, seven wins for Cincinnati. His two no-decisions were both games in which he left positioned to get the win (yesterday, leading 2-0 after seven; and last June 17, leading 3-2 after six) only to watch the Reds bullpen blow his lead in a game the Reds ultimately won. Has Cueto become the Pirates' kryptonite?

I don't think so, for two reasons. First, the Johnny Cueto the Pirates faced in the 2013 wild card game wasn't the typical Cueto. He started only eleven games all season that year in between two stints on the disabled list due to a strained lat muscle. Prior to the wild card game, Cueto had started only two games since the end of June, on September 16 and 23. He was still rusty, and it showed. By contrast, he's been healthy since, leading the league in innings pitched and batters faced.

Second, the Cueto the Pirates have faced since October 2013 is basically the same Cueto the rest of the league has faced. Look at this table:

ROW = Rest of world, i.e. everybody other than Pittsburgh.

Other than ERA, there's not a lot of difference, is there? He's allowed fewer walks against the Bucs, but also gotten fewer strikeouts. Otherwise, everything looks pretty much in line, except ERA. So what's going on with runs?

Well, here's another comparison:

RISP = Runners in scoring position

That pretty much tells the story. The Pirates' raw statistics--hits, walks, home runs, strikeouts--are similar to Cueto's other opponents. Their overall batting average is the same as the other hitters Cueto faces. But once they get players on base, the Bucs have been unable to bring them around to score. They're 2-for-27--two for twenty-seven!--with runners on second and/or third (with a bases-loaded walk and a run-scoring ground out added in).

Nobody hits well against Cueto, who was the runner-up to Clayton Kershaw for the Cy Young Award last year. The Pirates, overall, hit on a par with Cueto's other opponents. Once they get runners in scoring position, though, their bats turn to ice. That's why Cueto's dominated them.

The silver lining is that batting with runners in scoring position, or the lack thereof, isn't a particularly replicable skill. In 2013, the St. Louis Cardinals famously led the league in batting with RISP, at .330. The Pirates were second-to-last, at .229. But last year, the two were neck-and-neck, as the Cardinals tumbled to sixth, at .254, and the Bucs rose to seventh, at .249. That sort of variation suggests that batting with runners in scoring position includes a fair amount of luck. So while it's never easy to score against Johnny Cueto, it doesn't need to be as hard as it's been for Pittsburgh over their last seven games against the Reds hurler. It's reasonable to expect improvement in 2015.

The Most Hopeless Teams of 2014

From the 2015 Bill James Handbook: Teams that didn't spend a single day in first place in 2014

• Astros
• Cubs
• Diamondbacks
• Mets
• Reds
• Rockies
• Twins

If we also include teams that didn't ever have first place to themselves (the best they could do was tie for first), add the Indians, Padres, Phillies, and White Sox.

Not that that's necessarily a measure of hopelessness, though it pretty much was for the teams in question: Cleveland finished three games behind Oakland for the second American League wild card.

Speaking of Oakland, here are the teams that spent the most days in first place:

• Tigers, 153 days: Lost Divisional Series 
• Brewers, 150 days: Missed the postseason, six games behind the second wild card
• Athletics, 129 days: Lost Wild Card

Flyover: Cincinnati Reds

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs last year as a wild card (eliminated in the coin flip game by the Pirates) and were picked by some to win the division this year. No such luck. With star first baseman Joey Votto injured most of the year, second baseman Brandon Phillips having his worst season as a Red and looking old at 33, and right fielder Jay Bruce having the worst year of his career, the Reds are scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the National League, betraying a pitching staff that has a better-than-average 3.57 ERA. The only above-average hitters have been third baseman Todd Frazier and catcher Devin Mesoraco. Rookie center fielder/speedster Billy Hamilton has been OK with the bat and better than expected in the field, but he has somehow manged to steal only 72% of the bases he's attempted to swipe, exactly equal to the league average. Fastest player in baseball, maybe ever, and he's only an average base stealer. At least the team's other speedster, flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman, has been ridiculous: 87 strikeouts in 44.1 innings, striking out 52% of the batter's he's faced (nobody's close), only pitcher with an average fastball velocity in excess of 100 mph. The Reds have fourth place in the NL Central pretty much locked in.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds have the worst record in the National League, 9-18, over the last 30 days. The pitching's been bad, especially the bullpen, and the offense has been terrible. Well, it's not like they're playing for the postseason.

What's Going Right? Um. Well. They lead the league in stolen bases over the past 30 days. The pitchers are second in strikeouts. I'm behind writing these or I'd dig up something else. Nothing jumps out. The team has been pretty bad lately. Say this about the offense: the Reds are batting .259 on balls in play over the past 30 days. That's last in the league, by far, way below the league average of .301, suggesting that there's a large dollup of bad luck in their hitting numbers. Batting averages on balls in play don't generally don't persist at the extremes.

What's Going Wrong? This is a much longer list. They're last in batting average (.220), last in on base percentage (.280), second to last in slugging (.332) over the past 30 days. The pitchers are third in walk rate overall, and the relievers have walked 12% of the batters they've faced, by far the most in the league. Remember the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. About 48% of Reds relievers' pitchers are in the strike zone (throwing strikes), league average, but they're inducing swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (getting strikes), last in the league. 

Who's Hot? Over the past 30 days, the average National League hitter--this is the league where pitchers hit, remember--is batting .252 with a .314 on base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. There isn't a single Reds batter who's exceeded those figures. Mesoraco's led the team with a .348 on base percentage and a .432 slugging percentage, but as you can see, that's nothing all that special.

All-Star starter Johnny Cueto's been pretty good over the past 30 days, 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA, and starter Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with a 2-1 record. Other than strikeouts (18 in 9 innings), Chapman's had a just OK record (4.00 ERA). He and setup man Jumbo Diaz are the only relievers with nine or more innings pitched over the past month. 

Who's Not? Phillips has had a terrible time at the plate over the past 30 days, batting just .138 with a .194 on base percentage and a .172 slugging percentage. Bruce's slash line is .202/.242/.340 and he's struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Left fielder Ryan Ludwick's slash line is .179/.238/.321. 

What's the Outlook? This is the shortest if these team reports I've written. It's partly because there aren't very many Reds who have been exceptionally good or bad. But mostly, it's because this is an unexciting team. They're clearly playing out the string.

The Other Really Fast Cincinnati Red

No, not Billy Hamilton, though he's certainly fast. I'm talking about pitching fast, specifically Aroldis Chapman, possessor of the fastest fastball in the majors. So far this year, in 18.1 innings he's allowed just 11 base runners (6 hits, 5 walks), compiling a 0.98 ERA while converting 12 of 13 save opportunities. Most ridiculously,  he's struck out 37 batters, or 56.9% of the batters he's faced.

Here's a list of pitchers who've struck out 40% or more of the batters they've faced in a season of 50 or more innings pitched. As you can see, it's happened only eleven times. And while I couldn't get the sort to work quite right (the percentage of batters struck out is K%), you can see that Chapman's strikeout rate is unprecedented. 

Player	K%	SO	IP	Year	Tm	G	GF	W	L	SV	H	ER	BB	ERA
Craig Kimbrel	50.2%	116	62.2	2012	ATL	63	56	3	1	42	27	7	14	1.01
Kenley Jansen	44.0%	96	53.2	2011	LAD	51	13	2	1	5	30	17	26	2.85
Carlos Marmol	41.6%	138	77.2	2010	CHC	77	70	2	3	38	40	22	52	2.55
Aroldis Chapman	43.4%	112	63.2	2013	CIN	68	55	4	5	38	37	18	29	2.54
Aroldis Chapman	44.2%	122	71.2	2012	CIN	68	52	5	5	38	35	12	23	1.51
Eric Gagne	44.8%	137	82.1	2003	LAD	77	67	2	3	55	37	11	20	1.20
Billy Wagner	43.4%	124	74.2	1999	HOU	66	55	4	1	39	35	13	23	1.57
Brad Lidge	42.5%	157	94.2	2004	HOU	80	44	6	5	29	57	20	30	1.90
Craig Kimbrel	41.5%	127	77.0	2011	ATL	79	64	4	3	46	48	18	32	2.10
Armando Benitez	41.0%	128	78.0	1999	NYM	77	42	4	3	22	40	16	41	1.85
Greg Holland	40.4%	103	67.0	2013	KCR	68	61	2	1	47	40	9	18	1.21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 6/20/2014.

Chapman's season started late because he was hit in the face by a line drive at the end of March,  necessitating surgery to repair bones around his left eye and nose. There were questions about how he'd recover psychologically. I'd say he's OK.