You can also catch my appearance on Effectively Wild, the fantastic Baseball Prospectus podcast (the fans of whom started Banished to the Pen), here.
And enjoy the rest of the regular season.
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Showing posts with label Baseball Prospectus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baseball Prospectus. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
Emerging from a Long Summer's Nap
I haven't posted here in a long time. The reason is that I've been focusing my efforts on two other sites, Baseball Prospectus and Banished to the Pen. I will probably post a few things here from time to time (read: every few months or so) but to find my current baseball writings, check my author archives:
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Baseball 45 Years Ago
Motivated by a remark in the Joe Sheehan Newsletter, I wrote a retrospective on the 1971 season for Baseball Prospectus, focused on the differences between baseball then and now. Featuring Gomer Hodge.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
On Hiatuses and Not-So-Fun Facts
I've been blogging here a lot less this year than last year. You probably think it's because the Pirates aren't nearly as good as they were last year, and therefore I've lost interest. That's not it. The simple answer is: I've been busy! I've been writing a fair amount for Baseball Prospectus, which is an incredibly exciting honor, but it's a lot of work. Here's what I've been doing:
- On June 6, I researched whether a league with really bad teams creates a fertile ground for really good teams.
- On June 13, I wrote about how baseball sabermetrician Bill James's disdain for groundball pitchers, i.e., pitchers who generate many more groundballs than flyballs. I rose to their defense, pointing out that, in aggregate, they allow fewer home runs and, therefore, fewer runs than flyball pitchers.
- On June 14, I discussed an online poll in which, in response to the question "which off. stat is most important to a hitter's value," viewers chose on base percentage. I took issue with that assessment, illustrating how the voters' last pick, slugging percentage, was actually the best.
- On June 15 (it was a busy week!) I listed players who led their teams in various categories, like RBI and strikeouts, with really unimpressive totals.
- Today I delved more into groundball pitchers, finding that their superiority over flyball pitchers hasn't been a constant over time.
I also wrote my regular weekly Trailing 30 report at Banished to the Pen on Monday.
I'll try to at least post more contemporaneously.
Now, for a fun fact (which, full disclosure, I heard on MLB.com's Statcast Podcast): Here's a list of the top four outfielders (by plate appearances) for the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I've ranked them by OPS:
Player PAs BA OBP SLG OPS
Matt Joyce, Pit 117 .292 .419 .594 1.013
Marcell Ozuna, Mia 287 .321 .373 .565 .938
Christian Yelich, Mia 270 .316 .404 .491 .895
Gregory Polanco, Pit 291 .295 .379 .510 .889
Starling Marte, Pit 268 .331 .373 .498 .871
Ichiro Suzuki, Mia 151 .353 .427 .398 .825
Giancarlo Stanton, Mia 252 .211 .311 .427 .737
Andrew McCutchen, Pit 304 .238 .316 .403 .719
Player PAs BA OBP SLG OPS
Matt Joyce, Pit 117 .292 .419 .594 1.013
Marcell Ozuna, Mia 287 .321 .373 .565 .938
Christian Yelich, Mia 270 .316 .404 .491 .895
Gregory Polanco, Pit 291 .295 .379 .510 .889
Starling Marte, Pit 268 .331 .373 .498 .871
Ichiro Suzuki, Mia 151 .353 .427 .398 .825
Giancarlo Stanton, Mia 252 .211 .311 .427 .737
Andrew McCutchen, Pit 304 .238 .316 .403 .719
Two of the biggest stars in baseball, at the bottom of the list.
Monday, May 30, 2016
The RISP Mystery
In this Baseball Prospectus article, I continue my analysis of batting with runners in scoring position. Unsurprisingly--given pitcher quality, fielders' positions, and several other factors--batters hit more singles with runners in scoring position. They hit more doubles, too. And more triples. And they walk more. And the strike out less. All good. Except...they also hit fewer homers. That doesn't apply just to good hitters and bad hitters, it's across the board. Batters hit home runs less frequently with runners in scoring position than without. I explore various explanations without a definite answer in the article.
The Under-The Radar Team Adjustments
My latest Baseball Prospectus article is here. I look at three teams that have changed sharply from 2015 to 2016 in ways that aren't well-reported:
- The Washington Nationals have gone from a team that hits a lot of balls to the opposite field to one that rarely goes the other way.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have gone from one of the most free-swinging teams to the team that swings the least frequently in the majors.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates' pitchers have gone from being one of the stingiest at allowing home runs to one of the most homer-prone.
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Art Discovered, Found, Lost
Here is my latest at Baseball Prospectus. It's an examination of "the lost art out of the two-out RBI," a term I heard for the first time over the weekend. The clever title is not mine, because I'm not that clever.
Monday, May 23, 2016
Catchup
I know, posting's been light here. I've been writing a fair amount on other sites and I've been remiss in not posting it here. Here are some links.
On May 2, I wrote about Quality Starts as Baseball Prospectus. A lot of people deride quality starts, which are defined as a starting pitcher going six or more innings while allowing three or fewer runs. I conclude that quality starts are, in aggregate, very well-pitched games. Scroll down to the end of the article for an enlightening comparison.
On May 12, also at Baseball Prospectus, I explored whether there are some hitters who consistently perform better with runners in scoring position. Short answer: It doesn't seem that way. Longer answer: Try flipping a coin six times.
On May 16, I wrote about the Pirates' and Reds' proclivity for hitting one another's batters with pitches at Baseball Prospectus. They do it a lot, but there's not a lot of evidence that it's a case of eye-for-an-eye retribution (though 2016 may be different).
On May 17, I initiated my Trailing 30 feature for 2016 at Banished to the Pen. Among other things, I found that as of that date, there were three Pirates starters among the bottom five for ERA over the past 30 days.
Monday, May 2, 2016
Bucs Update: April
The Pirates finished April with a record of 15-9. While that trailed the best-in-the-majors Cubs by three games in the National League Central, it's still a good record: Fourth best in the National League, fifth best in the majors overall. The only teams that were better are the Cubs at 17-5, the Nationals at 16-7, the Mets at 15-7, and the White Sox at 17-8.
That's better than last year, when the Pirates finished the month at 12-10, third in their division, fifth in the league, eleventh in the majors. It's worth noting that after April 30 last year, the Pirates were 86-54, the best record in the majors.
Now, April's not the most important month. In fact, per this article of mine in Baseball Prospectus, it's the least predictive month of the season. By the same token, the trends that've emerged in April need to at least be monitored.
How did they get to 15-9? Well, there are a couple overall comments. First, they team's been a little lucky, but just a little. Based on its April run differential of 128 runs scored and 109 allowed, we'd expect a record a game or so worse. Second, they haven't played a particularly tough schedule so far. Through the end of April, they'd played only four games against teams playing better than .500, going 1-3 against Detroit, while running up an 14-6 record against Arizona, Cincinnati, Colorado, Milwaukee, San Diego, and St. Louis (the Cardinals were exactly a .500 team in April). That'll change tonight when they fact the Cubs, who did not play a single .500-plus team in April, facing Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Colorado, the LA Angels, and Milwaukee.
Yet it doesn't feel like the team's been one of the best in the league, does it? Let's compare how they Pirates arrived at this year's 15-9 vs. last year's 12-10. I'm going to show you three tables, indicating how the Pirates did this year vs. last year in April. For each statistic, I'll show the raw number as well as where the team ranked in the 15-team National League. For ranks with an asterisk, it means that the lower the statistic, the better (e.g., ERA).
First, offense:
The offense has been a lot better than last year. The Pirates are fourth in the league in scoring and lead in both batting average and on base percentage. Note that they've cut way down on strikeouts and are getting way more walks, in each case moving from one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. Like last year, opposing pitchers aren't throwing them a lot of pitches in the strike zone (Zone %) but the batters are much less likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (Chase %). Also, while the team's power ranking (isolated slugging, which is equal to slugging percentage minus batting average) hasn't moved up much, the raw number has. As Travis Sawchik pointed out over the weekend, the team's benefited from seeing more pitches. They won't stay this hot, but the offense looks strong.
One exception: Andrew McCutchen was the worst batter in the Pirates' starting eight during April, posting a .226/.339/441 slash line. But considering that he hit .194/.302/.333 in April last year, one of the worst performances in the league, then went on to be one of the top hitters in the game for the remainder of the season, it seems premature to worry.
In my preview for the team's 2016 season, I identified starting pitching as a key area of concern. Has that been borne out?
The starters have undoubtedly been worse. Their ERA is higher, and their FIP (fielding-independent pitching, a measure that's scaled like ERA but takes into account only strikeouts, walks, and home runs) has gone from best in the league to among the worse. They're striking out fewer hitters, walking more, and not lasting as deep into the game. Most worrisome to me is the chase percentage. When pitchers get opposing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, it means that they're fooling hitters and, more often than not, inducing weak contact. The Pirates starters got a lot of batters to chase last year. They're not this year. If hitters lay off pitches outside the zone, they can tee off on the resulting pitches in the zone. This is a concerning trend that I'll monitor. I'm still worried about the rotation.
How about the bullpen, long a Pirates strength, but off to a slow start this year?
Is this whining about a good team? Perhaps. But remember, that 15-9 record came against teams that, by and large, have struggled this year. In May, the team has six games against the Cubs and three each against the Cardinals and Rangers. That's a tougher slate than the team faced in April. Some things, especially the bullpen, need to get better in order to maintain this hot start.
That's better than last year, when the Pirates finished the month at 12-10, third in their division, fifth in the league, eleventh in the majors. It's worth noting that after April 30 last year, the Pirates were 86-54, the best record in the majors.
Now, April's not the most important month. In fact, per this article of mine in Baseball Prospectus, it's the least predictive month of the season. By the same token, the trends that've emerged in April need to at least be monitored.
How did they get to 15-9? Well, there are a couple overall comments. First, they team's been a little lucky, but just a little. Based on its April run differential of 128 runs scored and 109 allowed, we'd expect a record a game or so worse. Second, they haven't played a particularly tough schedule so far. Through the end of April, they'd played only four games against teams playing better than .500, going 1-3 against Detroit, while running up an 14-6 record against Arizona, Cincinnati, Colorado, Milwaukee, San Diego, and St. Louis (the Cardinals were exactly a .500 team in April). That'll change tonight when they fact the Cubs, who did not play a single .500-plus team in April, facing Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Colorado, the LA Angels, and Milwaukee.
Yet it doesn't feel like the team's been one of the best in the league, does it? Let's compare how they Pirates arrived at this year's 15-9 vs. last year's 12-10. I'm going to show you three tables, indicating how the Pirates did this year vs. last year in April. For each statistic, I'll show the raw number as well as where the team ranked in the 15-team National League. For ranks with an asterisk, it means that the lower the statistic, the better (e.g., ERA).
First, offense:
The offense has been a lot better than last year. The Pirates are fourth in the league in scoring and lead in both batting average and on base percentage. Note that they've cut way down on strikeouts and are getting way more walks, in each case moving from one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. Like last year, opposing pitchers aren't throwing them a lot of pitches in the strike zone (Zone %) but the batters are much less likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (Chase %). Also, while the team's power ranking (isolated slugging, which is equal to slugging percentage minus batting average) hasn't moved up much, the raw number has. As Travis Sawchik pointed out over the weekend, the team's benefited from seeing more pitches. They won't stay this hot, but the offense looks strong.
One exception: Andrew McCutchen was the worst batter in the Pirates' starting eight during April, posting a .226/.339/441 slash line. But considering that he hit .194/.302/.333 in April last year, one of the worst performances in the league, then went on to be one of the top hitters in the game for the remainder of the season, it seems premature to worry.
In my preview for the team's 2016 season, I identified starting pitching as a key area of concern. Has that been borne out?
The starters have undoubtedly been worse. Their ERA is higher, and their FIP (fielding-independent pitching, a measure that's scaled like ERA but takes into account only strikeouts, walks, and home runs) has gone from best in the league to among the worse. They're striking out fewer hitters, walking more, and not lasting as deep into the game. Most worrisome to me is the chase percentage. When pitchers get opposing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, it means that they're fooling hitters and, more often than not, inducing weak contact. The Pirates starters got a lot of batters to chase last year. They're not this year. If hitters lay off pitches outside the zone, they can tee off on the resulting pitches in the zone. This is a concerning trend that I'll monitor. I'm still worried about the rotation.
How about the bullpen, long a Pirates strength, but off to a slow start this year?
Well, the bullpen isn't the dumpster fire it was when I wrote the post referenced above, but it hasn't been good, and it started May with its fourth loss of the year. This is my biggest worry for the Pirates. The offense won't stay this good, but it's a good unit. The starters aren't a great bunch, but they're OK, and there are probably reinforcements on the way. But a bad bullpen? This is new, and it's disconcerting. Last season, the Pirates had nine relievers who threw at least 25 innings, and of them, all but one had an ERA below 3.00. (And the one who was above, Arquimedes Caminero, was at a not-bad 3.62). This year, of the eight Pittsburgh relievers with at least five innings pitched so far, only one's below 3.00 (and that one, Mark Melancon, isn't below by much, 2.61). They're still getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone, but they've backslid in all the components of FIP--they're allowing more home runs and walks and getting fewer strikeouts. Absent pretty marked improvement, the team is going to be challenged to hold onto late leads and overcome late deficits.
Is this whining about a good team? Perhaps. But remember, that 15-9 record came against teams that, by and large, have struggled this year. In May, the team has six games against the Cubs and three each against the Cardinals and Rangers. That's a tougher slate than the team faced in April. Some things, especially the bullpen, need to get better in order to maintain this hot start.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
More on the Orioles
Yesterday I had another piece on the 7-0 Orioles--before they fell to 7-1 against the Red Sox--published at Baseball Prospectus. I noted that while no team starting a season 7-0 has ever finished below .500, some of the 26 teams that accomplished the feat before the Orioles aren't very good. You can click on the link to read more.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
It's Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
That quote's attributed to Yogi Berra, though like most quotes attributed to him, who knows whether he actually said it.
Last year predictions in baseball were particularly hard. The American League had record parity, the can't-miss Nationals missed, the can't-win Astros and Cubs won...it was a tough year. I listed five locks for the 2015 season: the Phillies would finish last in the NL East, the Braves would be second to last, the Dodgers would win the NL West (three for three so far!), the Nationals would win the NL East (didn't make the postseason) and the Twins would finish last in the AL Central (finished second, just three games out of the postseason). Three out of five isn't bad, except that these were my locks. As I said, it was a tough season.
Before the season started, I compiled projected won-lost records from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, ESPN, and this site. Here's how we all did:
American League East
Actual BP FG ESPN OTFOP
Blue Jays 93-69 80-82 82-80 82-80 84-78
Yankees 87-75 79-83 82-80 82-80 82-80
Orioles 81-81 79-83 79-83 79-83 80-82
Rays 80-82 86-78 80-82 80-82 77-85
Red Sox 78-84 88-74 86-76 86-76 88-74
American League Central
Actual BP FG ESPN OTFOP
Royals 95-67 73-89 78-84 78-84 79-83
Twins 83-79 70-92 74-88 74-88 70-92
Indians 81-80 80-82 85-77 85-77 84-78
White Sox 76-86 79-83 78-84 78-84 83-79
Tigers 74-87 83-79 84-78 84-78 88-74
American League West
Actual BP FG ESPN OTFOP
Rangers 88-74 79-83 75-87 75-87 75-87
Astros 86-76 78-84 79-83 79-83 79-83
Angels 85-77 91-71 87-75 87-75 86-76
Mariners 76-86 87-75 88-74 88-74 89-73
Athletics 68-94 84-78 83-79 83-79 79-83
National League East
Actual BP FG ESPN OTFOP
Mets 88-74 83-79 81-81 81-81 84-78
Nationals 83-79 92-70 93-69 93-69 91-71
Marlins 71-91 81-81 81-81 81-81 81-81
Braves 67-95 72-90 72-90 72-90 69-93
Phillies 63-99 68-94 68-94 68-94 64-98
National League Central
Actual BP FG ESPN OTFOP
Cardinals 100-62 89-73 88-74 88-74 89-73
Pirates 98-64 81-81 85-77 85-77 85-77
Cubs 97-65 85-77 84-78 84-78 81-81
Brewers 68-94 81-81 79-83 79-83 78-84
Reds 64-98 76-86 75-87 75-87 72-90
National League West
Actual BP FG ESPN OTFOP
Dodgers 92-70 98-64 92-70 92-70 94-68
Giants 84-78 84-78 81-81 81-81 84-78
Diamondbacks 79-83 72-90 74-88 74-88 71-91
Padres 74-88 85-77 84-78 84-78 86-76
Rockies 68-94 71-91 75-87 75-87 78-84
Nobody covered themselves in glory. One way to evaluate preseason picks is to calculate the difference between predicted wins and actual wins. On that basis, FanGraphs and ESPN missed by 241 wins, I did by 243, and Baseball Prospectus by 265. I'm not crazy about that method, though, for a number of reasons. I prefer the correlation between predicted winning percentage and actual winning percentage. On that basis, the standings are:
1. On the Field of Play 0.464
2. ESPN 0.461
FanGraphs 0.461
4. Baseball Prospectus 0.365
I'm not taking a victory lap. I was basically tied with ESPN and FanGraphs, while Baseball Prospectus lagged largely because of a few teams: It was way high on the Dodgers and Rays and way low on the Royals.
The outlook for 2016 is more chaos in the American League. Baseball Prospectus has Tampa winning the East, ESPN has the Rays in last. FanGraphs has last year's West champion, Texas, tied for last. ESPN projects the Indians leading the Central with 84 wins with three teams (Royals, Tigers, White Sox) tied for second with just one fewer win. There's more consistency in the National League: All three forecast the AL East as Mets-Nationals-Marlins-Braves-Phillies, the Central with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates 1-3, and the West led by the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks, in that order.
Here are my picks, with brief comments:
National League East
Washington Nationals, 89-73: Everybody's picking the Mets, plus the Nationals have lost some key parts (pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen, outfielder Denard Span), and Jonathan Papelbon's still a jerk. Still, I expect a bounceback season here, becasue just about everything went wrong last year other than MVP Bryce Harper, and pitcher Stephen Strasburg is a a pre-free agency salary drive.
New York Mets, 85-77: Yes, I know, defending NL champs, fantastic rotation, they re-signed Yoenis Cespedes and traded for Neil Walker. But they have several fragile and/or aging guys around the diamond, and they're not particularly deep.
Miami Marlins, 82-80: If they get a full year out of Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez (I'm guessing they don't), they'll finish with a better record. This isn't a very good team, but they do get to play 38 games against the next two clubs.
Philadelphia Phillies, 66-96: There's hope. Former GM Ruben Amaro re-stocked the farm system on his way out. They've got some promising youngsters on the team now (Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola) and more on the way.
Atlanta Braves, 64-98: They're being picked ahead of the Phillies by most people and I don't know why. Quick, name some good Braves. Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran (who wasn't that good last year)...told you. Like Philadelphia, they're reloading, but the future isn't now.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs, 89-73: Everybody's top pick. I've got them winning eight fewer games than last year and still winning the division. What's right: All those young players who came up and contributed last season will be with the team all year. What's wrong: Not all of them will be as good. What pushes them over: The offseason acquisitions of pitcher John Lackey, outfielder Jason Heyward, and second baseman Ben Zobrist.
St. Louis Cardinals, 86-76: Was last year the least impressive 100-win season you can remember? Some guys are getting old, and losing Heyward and Lackey to the Cubs hurts, but this is still a good team.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 83-79: I'll explain this one in detail tomorrow, since I know Pirates fans won't like it. In summary, they were somewhat lucky last year, they lost 60% of the starting rotation, and it's unreasonable to assume they'll continue to be uncannily injury-free, exposing a thin bench.
Milwaukee Brewers, 75-87: They're rebuilding in a tough, tough division.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: See above.
National League West
San Francisco Giants, 89-73: This is more about having reservations about the Dodgers than love for the Giants, though I like the Johnny Cueto and Denard Span signings. (Jeff Samardzija, not so much). Expect some regression from surprise Rookie of the Year contender Matt Duffy, offset by more time on the field from second baseman Joe Panik, and Bruce Bochy's still the manager.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 86-76: This is a good club, and they've got some great prospects who'll chip in this season, but ye gods, have they ever been injury-prone in the spring. And to the degree that injuries put players into unfamiliar roles, the trend could compound itself. The Giants had an injury-riddled 2015; this year feels like the Dodgers' turn.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 81-81: I'll confess to a blind spot with Arizona and the Twins: I'm not convinced either front office is up to the caliber of the rest of the league. They've got some great pieces in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielders David Peralta and A.J. Pollock, and they landed free agent pitcher Zack Greinke, but there are still a lot of holes.
San Diego Padres, 76-86: Last year they were the talk of the offseason, adding a lot of veteran talent and trading away a lot of young talent. Now they look like they're doing a bit of a rebuild. Oh well, they play in a great ballpark and the weather's always perfect.
Colorado Rockies, 75-87: Last season the tease was how good they'd be if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez could both stay healthy. Now Tulo's gone, Gonzalez could be soon, and the relief from a very good farm system is still a year or three away. No tease.
American League East
Toronto Blue Jays, 87-75: FanGraphs and ESPN like Boston, BP still likes Tampa Bay, but I'm picking Toronto as the lone divisional champ from 2015 to repeat. The rotation lost David Price, but it gets a full year from Marcus Stroman, and can these guys ever hit.
Boston Red Sox, 85-77: The two big additions to the pitching staff, starter Price (via free agency) and reliever Craig Kimbrel (via trade), will get the attention, but a bounceback also assumes a return to form of at least one of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. (I'm buying the former, not the latter.)
New York Yankees, 84-78: Another year of remaining in contention while they wait for the big contracts paid to old players to run out.
Tampa Bay Rays, 81-81: Gotta love the pitching. Gotta wonder how they'll score runs.
Baltimore Orioles, 78-84: They've got a great manager, a top-notch bullpen, and they'll hit a lot of homers. But they don't get on base enough and the outfield, outside of center fielder Adam Jones, is, to put it charitably, unproven. But really, in this division, anybody could win, anybody could finish last. It's that close.
American League Central
Cleveland Indians, 86-76: Arguably the best starting rotation this side of Citi Field, an underappreciated bullpen, and a much improved defense from this point in 2015. Like Tampa Bay, the question is scoring runs, and I'm assuming they get most of a year from outfielder Michael Brantley.
Kansas City Royals, 84-78: Hey, don't get annoyed at me. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have the Royals finishing last in the division, ESPN in a three-way tie for second (and third and fourth). Get on them for not giving the defending World Champions the love.
Detroit Tigers, 82-80: Everybody talks about how Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is desperately spending on this team in order to win the World Series before he dies. Fine, but he turns 87 this July. Orioles owner Peter Angelos turns 87 three weeks earlier. How come nobody's talking about Angelos wanting to buy a Series before he dies? I mean, yeah, Angelos isn't spending the way Ilitch is, but the old-owner-pushing-in-all-the-chips-to-the-center-of-the-table narrative is a little ageist, isn't it?
Chicago White Sox, 80-82: Lefty starter Chris Sale is one of the game's under-the-radar superstars. But the big story out of this team so far this year is a 14-year-old who can't hang out in the clubhouse.
Minnesota Twins, 75-87: They have some promising youngsters, but their success last year had a big dollop of luck.
American League West
Seattle Mariners, 87-75: I picked them last year and was really, really wrong. But this year they actually addressed their primary offensive weakness, an inability to get on base, and Felix Hernandez, who had an off-year (for him) in 2015, looked good in spring (12:2 K:W, no homers in 12.1 innings).
Houston Astros, 84-78: Three things about the Astros. First, they were 51-111 just three seasons ago. Second, from the day they called up Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa through the end of the season, they were 52-52. Third, they finished only a game ahead of the Angels for the second wild card. It's like people think they're the defending division champs. They're not.
Texas Rangers, 83-79: In contrast to the Astros, the Rangers actually were the division champs last year. But they were kind of lucky--their record based on run differential was five games worse than their actual--and their rotation, even assuming a healthy return from Tommy John surgery by Yu Darvish, has a lot of question marks.
Los Angeles Angels, 80-82. In center fielder Mike Trout, they have the game's best player, and he's starting to look like this generation's Ernie Banks: Great player whose team doesn't get him to the Series.
Oakland Athletics, 76-86: Another year in the cellar looks likely, but as in the AL East, if you squint, you can see them playing into October. The American League is a big tossup.
National League East
Washington Nationals, 89-73: Everybody's picking the Mets, plus the Nationals have lost some key parts (pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen, outfielder Denard Span), and Jonathan Papelbon's still a jerk. Still, I expect a bounceback season here, becasue just about everything went wrong last year other than MVP Bryce Harper, and pitcher Stephen Strasburg is a a pre-free agency salary drive.
New York Mets, 85-77: Yes, I know, defending NL champs, fantastic rotation, they re-signed Yoenis Cespedes and traded for Neil Walker. But they have several fragile and/or aging guys around the diamond, and they're not particularly deep.
Miami Marlins, 82-80: If they get a full year out of Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez (I'm guessing they don't), they'll finish with a better record. This isn't a very good team, but they do get to play 38 games against the next two clubs.
Philadelphia Phillies, 66-96: There's hope. Former GM Ruben Amaro re-stocked the farm system on his way out. They've got some promising youngsters on the team now (Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola) and more on the way.
Atlanta Braves, 64-98: They're being picked ahead of the Phillies by most people and I don't know why. Quick, name some good Braves. Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran (who wasn't that good last year)...told you. Like Philadelphia, they're reloading, but the future isn't now.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs, 89-73: Everybody's top pick. I've got them winning eight fewer games than last year and still winning the division. What's right: All those young players who came up and contributed last season will be with the team all year. What's wrong: Not all of them will be as good. What pushes them over: The offseason acquisitions of pitcher John Lackey, outfielder Jason Heyward, and second baseman Ben Zobrist.
St. Louis Cardinals, 86-76: Was last year the least impressive 100-win season you can remember? Some guys are getting old, and losing Heyward and Lackey to the Cubs hurts, but this is still a good team.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 83-79: I'll explain this one in detail tomorrow, since I know Pirates fans won't like it. In summary, they were somewhat lucky last year, they lost 60% of the starting rotation, and it's unreasonable to assume they'll continue to be uncannily injury-free, exposing a thin bench.
Milwaukee Brewers, 75-87: They're rebuilding in a tough, tough division.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: See above.
National League West
San Francisco Giants, 89-73: This is more about having reservations about the Dodgers than love for the Giants, though I like the Johnny Cueto and Denard Span signings. (Jeff Samardzija, not so much). Expect some regression from surprise Rookie of the Year contender Matt Duffy, offset by more time on the field from second baseman Joe Panik, and Bruce Bochy's still the manager.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 86-76: This is a good club, and they've got some great prospects who'll chip in this season, but ye gods, have they ever been injury-prone in the spring. And to the degree that injuries put players into unfamiliar roles, the trend could compound itself. The Giants had an injury-riddled 2015; this year feels like the Dodgers' turn.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 81-81: I'll confess to a blind spot with Arizona and the Twins: I'm not convinced either front office is up to the caliber of the rest of the league. They've got some great pieces in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielders David Peralta and A.J. Pollock, and they landed free agent pitcher Zack Greinke, but there are still a lot of holes.
San Diego Padres, 76-86: Last year they were the talk of the offseason, adding a lot of veteran talent and trading away a lot of young talent. Now they look like they're doing a bit of a rebuild. Oh well, they play in a great ballpark and the weather's always perfect.
Colorado Rockies, 75-87: Last season the tease was how good they'd be if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez could both stay healthy. Now Tulo's gone, Gonzalez could be soon, and the relief from a very good farm system is still a year or three away. No tease.
American League East
Toronto Blue Jays, 87-75: FanGraphs and ESPN like Boston, BP still likes Tampa Bay, but I'm picking Toronto as the lone divisional champ from 2015 to repeat. The rotation lost David Price, but it gets a full year from Marcus Stroman, and can these guys ever hit.
Boston Red Sox, 85-77: The two big additions to the pitching staff, starter Price (via free agency) and reliever Craig Kimbrel (via trade), will get the attention, but a bounceback also assumes a return to form of at least one of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. (I'm buying the former, not the latter.)
New York Yankees, 84-78: Another year of remaining in contention while they wait for the big contracts paid to old players to run out.
Tampa Bay Rays, 81-81: Gotta love the pitching. Gotta wonder how they'll score runs.
Baltimore Orioles, 78-84: They've got a great manager, a top-notch bullpen, and they'll hit a lot of homers. But they don't get on base enough and the outfield, outside of center fielder Adam Jones, is, to put it charitably, unproven. But really, in this division, anybody could win, anybody could finish last. It's that close.
American League Central
Cleveland Indians, 86-76: Arguably the best starting rotation this side of Citi Field, an underappreciated bullpen, and a much improved defense from this point in 2015. Like Tampa Bay, the question is scoring runs, and I'm assuming they get most of a year from outfielder Michael Brantley.
Kansas City Royals, 84-78: Hey, don't get annoyed at me. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have the Royals finishing last in the division, ESPN in a three-way tie for second (and third and fourth). Get on them for not giving the defending World Champions the love.
Detroit Tigers, 82-80: Everybody talks about how Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is desperately spending on this team in order to win the World Series before he dies. Fine, but he turns 87 this July. Orioles owner Peter Angelos turns 87 three weeks earlier. How come nobody's talking about Angelos wanting to buy a Series before he dies? I mean, yeah, Angelos isn't spending the way Ilitch is, but the old-owner-pushing-in-all-the-chips-to-the-center-of-the-table narrative is a little ageist, isn't it?
Chicago White Sox, 80-82: Lefty starter Chris Sale is one of the game's under-the-radar superstars. But the big story out of this team so far this year is a 14-year-old who can't hang out in the clubhouse.
Minnesota Twins, 75-87: They have some promising youngsters, but their success last year had a big dollop of luck.
American League West
Seattle Mariners, 87-75: I picked them last year and was really, really wrong. But this year they actually addressed their primary offensive weakness, an inability to get on base, and Felix Hernandez, who had an off-year (for him) in 2015, looked good in spring (12:2 K:W, no homers in 12.1 innings).
Houston Astros, 84-78: Three things about the Astros. First, they were 51-111 just three seasons ago. Second, from the day they called up Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa through the end of the season, they were 52-52. Third, they finished only a game ahead of the Angels for the second wild card. It's like people think they're the defending division champs. They're not.
Texas Rangers, 83-79: In contrast to the Astros, the Rangers actually were the division champs last year. But they were kind of lucky--their record based on run differential was five games worse than their actual--and their rotation, even assuming a healthy return from Tommy John surgery by Yu Darvish, has a lot of question marks.
Los Angeles Angels, 80-82. In center fielder Mike Trout, they have the game's best player, and he's starting to look like this generation's Ernie Banks: Great player whose team doesn't get him to the Series.
Oakland Athletics, 76-86: Another year in the cellar looks likely, but as in the AL East, if you squint, you can see them playing into October. The American League is a big tossup.
Those Shifting Pirates
Baseball Prospectus is running a series entitled "Winter is Leaving." It examines each team in the league. The author chooses something obvious about the team--e.g., the Giants article today talks about how Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner are both good--and expands on it. It's been an entertaining series, and, for those of you unwilling to pay for a BP subscription (despite my recommendation that you do so), it's free.
Anyway, I wrote the article on the Pirates. It's here. The obvious thing I discuss is that the Pirates shift their infielders a lot. The analysis is that the shifts are only the most visible manifestation of the Pirates' run prevention strategy: Get catchers who get a lot of borderline pitches called strikes, pitchers who, aided by the strike calls, generate a lot of ground balls, which are hit to infielders who are positioned optimally to make the play. It's the biggest platform for which I've written. If you click the link, I hope you like it.
And, to follow up on the blatant self-promotion, here is a link to the PowerPoint and here is a link to the audio for the presentation at the Society for American Baseball Research conference I mentioned last week.
Anyway, I wrote the article on the Pirates. It's here. The obvious thing I discuss is that the Pirates shift their infielders a lot. The analysis is that the shifts are only the most visible manifestation of the Pirates' run prevention strategy: Get catchers who get a lot of borderline pitches called strikes, pitchers who, aided by the strike calls, generate a lot of ground balls, which are hit to infielders who are positioned optimally to make the play. It's the biggest platform for which I've written. If you click the link, I hope you like it.
And, to follow up on the blatant self-promotion, here is a link to the PowerPoint and here is a link to the audio for the presentation at the Society for American Baseball Research conference I mentioned last week.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Three Points About Pirates Catchers
Point 1: Russell Nathan Coltrane Martin is fondly remembered by Pirates fans. He signed with the Pirates as a free agent contract after the 2012 season for two years and $15 million. This was after two years with the Yankees during which Martin batted just .224, including .211 in 2012. The Yankees didn't really try to re-sign him, apparently thinking that, at age 29, his best years were behind him. He became one of the Pirates' key players, earning him a long profile in Travis Sawchik's book about the 2013 Pirates, Big Data Baseball.
In 2013, Pirates catchers (Martin comprised 72% of plate appearances) compiled a .691 OPS, 16th in the majors, with a .230 batting average, .312 on base percentage, and .378 slugging percentage. Their OPS, adjusted for park and league, was about 5% below average. That's not bad for catcher, which is a glove-first position. In 2014, Pirates catchers (Martin comprised 67%) had a .786 OPS, third best in the majors, batting .290 with a .383 on base percentage (easily the best in the majors) and .403 slugging percentage. Adjusted for park and league, their OPS was 16% above average.
As strong as Martin's contributions with his bat, his glove was arguably more important to the Pirates' success. As Sawchik explained in his book, Martin excels at "pitch framing," the ability to catch a borderline pitch in a manner that makes the umpire more likely to call a strike than a ball. According to Baseball Prospectus, which has been the leader in analyzing pitch framing, Martin added 195 strikes in 2013-2014 through his framing, the seventh most in baseball, saving Pittsburgh pitchers 29 runs. That means that Martin's glovework by itself accounted for about three Pirates victories.
As often happens with Pirates stars, when Martin became a free agent after the 2014 season, he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the Pirates. Those fears were realized when the Ontario native signed a $75 million four-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He's been a sparkplug for the Jays, batting primarily fifth or sixth, batting .251/.333/.455, a .788 OPS that's 17% above average, adjusted for his home park. And he's been exciting, even with the plays he doesn't make:
So losing Martin left a hole for the Pirates, as he's continued the rejuvenation that began in Pittsburgh...
Point 2: ...but the Pirates catchers are doing even better.
Some were unimpressed when the Pirates again went after another Yankees castoff to catch, trading lefty reliever Justin Wilson to New York for Francisco Cervelli. Martin amassed 961 plate appearances in 258 games in two years in New York; Cervelli had 785 plate appearances in 250 games in seven years in the Bronx. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to 43 games in 2011, three in 2012, 17 in 2013, and 49 in 2014. When the Pirates signed Martin, they at least signed a major league regular catcher. When they traded for Cervelli, they got a catcher who'd never played in more than 93 games in a season and had only once played in more than 49.
So how's it worked out? Here are the teams with the the ten best performance from their catchers, ranked by OPS:
Pirates catchers (Cervelli has 72% of plate appearances, Chris Stewart almost all of the rest) are first in batting, second in on base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Toronto's (75% Martin, 19% Dioner Navarro, 6% Josh Thole) are 12th in batting, eighth in on base percentage, and seventh in slugging. Adjusted for park and league, the Pirates are third in OPS, with an OPS+ of 120, while the Jays are 13th at 96.
But that's not all. According to Baseball Prospectus, Cervelli ranks seventh in the majors in pitch framing, nabbing 56 extra strikes. Martin's eighth with 50. (Stewart's added 10 for the Pirates, while the Navarro/Thole tandem has lost 9). The Pirates catchers are outperforming the Blue Jays, both at the plate and behind it.
Point 3: A saw a Pirates game with a friend, and he asked, after seeing both Cervelli and Stewart in action, "Do the Pirates have the skinniest catchers in the majors?" This is a sufficiently silly question that I'm going to look at just the National League. For each team, I calculated the average height and weight of the catchers, weighted by innings caught. For example, for the Pirates, 6'1", 205-lb. Cervelli has caught 725.2 innings. The 6'4", 210 Stewart has caught 263.2. Tony Sanchez, 5'11, 220 has caught 17.1 innings. You add those together, and you get the average Pirate catcher at six feet, 1.8 inches and 206.6 pounds. Here's a graph of each team.
As you can see, the heavier catchers are at the top of the graph, the lighter ones at the bottom. Taller catchers are on the right, shorter ones at the left.
Now, I'm basing this on the heights and weights listed at baseball-reference.com. There's an element of self-reporting there, and I doubt how accurate all of the figures are. But they're the best we have.
And based on the data, I'd say that my friend was right. The Pirates catchers are the third-lightest in the league and the third-tallest. That makes them the thinnest. What the significance is, I have no idea.
In 2013, Pirates catchers (Martin comprised 72% of plate appearances) compiled a .691 OPS, 16th in the majors, with a .230 batting average, .312 on base percentage, and .378 slugging percentage. Their OPS, adjusted for park and league, was about 5% below average. That's not bad for catcher, which is a glove-first position. In 2014, Pirates catchers (Martin comprised 67%) had a .786 OPS, third best in the majors, batting .290 with a .383 on base percentage (easily the best in the majors) and .403 slugging percentage. Adjusted for park and league, their OPS was 16% above average.
As strong as Martin's contributions with his bat, his glove was arguably more important to the Pirates' success. As Sawchik explained in his book, Martin excels at "pitch framing," the ability to catch a borderline pitch in a manner that makes the umpire more likely to call a strike than a ball. According to Baseball Prospectus, which has been the leader in analyzing pitch framing, Martin added 195 strikes in 2013-2014 through his framing, the seventh most in baseball, saving Pittsburgh pitchers 29 runs. That means that Martin's glovework by itself accounted for about three Pirates victories.
As often happens with Pirates stars, when Martin became a free agent after the 2014 season, he seemed unlikely to re-sign with the Pirates. Those fears were realized when the Ontario native signed a $75 million four-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He's been a sparkplug for the Jays, batting primarily fifth or sixth, batting .251/.333/.455, a .788 OPS that's 17% above average, adjusted for his home park. And he's been exciting, even with the plays he doesn't make:
So losing Martin left a hole for the Pirates, as he's continued the rejuvenation that began in Pittsburgh...
Point 2: ...but the Pirates catchers are doing even better.
Some were unimpressed when the Pirates again went after another Yankees castoff to catch, trading lefty reliever Justin Wilson to New York for Francisco Cervelli. Martin amassed 961 plate appearances in 258 games in two years in New York; Cervelli had 785 plate appearances in 250 games in seven years in the Bronx. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to 43 games in 2011, three in 2012, 17 in 2013, and 49 in 2014. When the Pirates signed Martin, they at least signed a major league regular catcher. When they traded for Cervelli, they got a catcher who'd never played in more than 93 games in a season and had only once played in more than 49.
So how's it worked out? Here are the teams with the the ten best performance from their catchers, ranked by OPS:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | OPS+ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland | 114 | 410 | 53 | 112 | 25 | 3 | 21 | 76 | 39 | 82 | .273 | .336 | .502 | .839 | 140 |
| Los Angeles (NL) | 113 | 378 | 52 | 103 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 51 | 64 | 87 | .272 | .379 | .455 | .834 | 121 |
| Colorado | 111 | 404 | 56 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 28 | 94 | .282 | .332 | .465 | .797 | 109 |
| San Francisco | 112 | 430 | 54 | 124 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 68 | 39 | 65 | .288 | .345 | .437 | .782 | 112 |
| Pittsburgh | 110 | 403 | 48 | 123 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 32 | 82 | .305 | .366 | .414 | .781 | 120 |
| Baltimore | 112 | 381 | 46 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 15 | 54 | 31 | 87 | .262 | .319 | .449 | .768 | 110 |
| New York (NY) | 111 | 415 | 56 | 106 | 18 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 36 | 90 | .255 | .317 | .446 | .763 | 102 |
| Toronto | 114 | 414 | 69 | 103 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 65 | 43 | 88 | .249 | .325 | .435 | .760 | 96 |
| Arizona | 112 | 406 | 54 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 58 | 41 | 109 | .241 | .320 | .424 | .744 | 102 |
| Chicago (NL) | 111 | 396 | 38 | 94 | 17 | 0 | 16 | 53 | 55 | 117 | .237 | .335 | .402 | .736 | 112 |
Pirates catchers (Cervelli has 72% of plate appearances, Chris Stewart almost all of the rest) are first in batting, second in on base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Toronto's (75% Martin, 19% Dioner Navarro, 6% Josh Thole) are 12th in batting, eighth in on base percentage, and seventh in slugging. Adjusted for park and league, the Pirates are third in OPS, with an OPS+ of 120, while the Jays are 13th at 96.
But that's not all. According to Baseball Prospectus, Cervelli ranks seventh in the majors in pitch framing, nabbing 56 extra strikes. Martin's eighth with 50. (Stewart's added 10 for the Pirates, while the Navarro/Thole tandem has lost 9). The Pirates catchers are outperforming the Blue Jays, both at the plate and behind it.
Point 3: A saw a Pirates game with a friend, and he asked, after seeing both Cervelli and Stewart in action, "Do the Pirates have the skinniest catchers in the majors?" This is a sufficiently silly question that I'm going to look at just the National League. For each team, I calculated the average height and weight of the catchers, weighted by innings caught. For example, for the Pirates, 6'1", 205-lb. Cervelli has caught 725.2 innings. The 6'4", 210 Stewart has caught 263.2. Tony Sanchez, 5'11, 220 has caught 17.1 innings. You add those together, and you get the average Pirate catcher at six feet, 1.8 inches and 206.6 pounds. Here's a graph of each team.
Now, I'm basing this on the heights and weights listed at baseball-reference.com. There's an element of self-reporting there, and I doubt how accurate all of the figures are. But they're the best we have.
And based on the data, I'd say that my friend was right. The Pirates catchers are the third-lightest in the league and the third-tallest. That makes them the thinnest. What the significance is, I have no idea.
Friday, April 17, 2015
Rewind: Carlos Quentin
As noted here, this is primarily a Pittsburgh Pirates blog. However, I'll handle general baseball topics from time to time, including an occasional lookback to prior posts.
Back in January, I advocated the Baltimore Orioles trading for Carlos Quentin, then a spare part in the San Diego Padres' outfield. The Orioles had lost designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Seattle Mariners via free agency. Quentin was a bust with the Padres, partly because of lost time to injuries, but from 2008 to 2011 he averaged 120 games per season as on outfielder/designated hitter for the Chicago White Sox. With the Orioles, I envisioned him as primarily a DH, since his work in the outfield (1) contributed to his injury-related absences and (2) stunk. He'd fill a roster hole for the Orioles, and I pointed out that
Basically, the roster spot that a hitter like Quentin would fill is now being occupied by a team's 13th pitcher. Why did the Tampa Bay Rays give 111 plate appearances at DH--17% of the team's total--to utility infielder/outfielders Sean Rodriguez and Logan Forsythe last year, who combined for just three home runs? Because they didn't have room on the roster for a bat-only guy. Eight-man bullpens squeeze the hitting side of the roster, exacerbating the lack of scoring today. Some 22-year-old who can hit 98 on the radar gun is a team's sixth inning specialist, while Carlos Quentin and his .484 career slugging percentage (28th among 127 active players with 3,000 or more plate appearances) sits at home, texting his agent every other day asking whether anybody called.
In this year's Hardball Times Annual, longtime baseball analyst Craig Wright proposes gradually capping the number of pitchers on major league rosters at 9 or 10. This, he believes, would have many benefits: Fewer pitching changes (so shorter games), pitchers pacing themselves more (so fewer strikeouts and, possibly, fewer arm injuries), more hitters and fewer tough pitcher/hitter matchups (so more scoring). Add to that list: The liberation of Carlos Quentin.
Back in January, I advocated the Baltimore Orioles trading for Carlos Quentin, then a spare part in the San Diego Padres' outfield. The Orioles had lost designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Seattle Mariners via free agency. Quentin was a bust with the Padres, partly because of lost time to injuries, but from 2008 to 2011 he averaged 120 games per season as on outfielder/designated hitter for the Chicago White Sox. With the Orioles, I envisioned him as primarily a DH, since his work in the outfield (1) contributed to his injury-related absences and (2) stunk. He'd fill a roster hole for the Orioles, and I pointed out that
Quentin is good at getting on base. Among the 168 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances between 2008 and 2014, he ranks 47th with a .352 on base percentage. The Orioles led the majors in home runs last year, easily, with 211, and were second in the AL in slugging percentage with .422, but only sixth in runs scored, with 705. The reason is that their .311 on base percentage was fifth worst in the league. They didn't get enough guys on base to take advantage of the long balls. The current Orioles roster has only three hitters with 30+ games played last year with a 2014 on base percentage better than the league average of .316. Quentin would address the team's key offensive weakness.Since then, two things have happened:
- The Orioles have mixed-and-matched at DH. Travis Snider and Chris Davis have started three games each, Delmon Young's started twice, and Steve Pearce once. Collectively, they've been awful: .152 batting average (second lowest in the league), no extra-base hits, .243 on base percentage (third lowest in the league).
- Quentin was traded to the Atlanta Braves on April 5 in a blockbuster deal involving closer Craig Kimbrel. The Braves designated him for assignment (or DFA, a precursor to releasing a player under contract) the next day and released him on April 14. Quentin's a free agent, and can be signed by any team for the major league minimum of $507,500, with the Braves responsible for the remainder of his $8 million contract.
So I thought: No-brainer! The Orioles don't really have a DH, the guys they've used have been lousy, and cheapskate owner Peter Angelos can get Quentin for the major league minimum! Let's do this!
Then I read an article by Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus, entitled, appropriately enough, "Carlos Quentin's DFA is This Godforsaken Era in a Nutshell." Matthew posits that
Carlos Quentin is the victim of the modern MLB roster, and he helps explain the offensive famine that has so starved us all for runs over the past five years
Why is that? Matthew explains:
The reason is that teams are so loaded with relievers that their bench spots all need to go to versatile players who can play a premium defensive position. You get a backup catcher, a fourth outfielder (who had better be able to play center), a utility infielder (who had better be able to play shortstop), and one other guy.
Basically, the roster spot that a hitter like Quentin would fill is now being occupied by a team's 13th pitcher. Why did the Tampa Bay Rays give 111 plate appearances at DH--17% of the team's total--to utility infielder/outfielders Sean Rodriguez and Logan Forsythe last year, who combined for just three home runs? Because they didn't have room on the roster for a bat-only guy. Eight-man bullpens squeeze the hitting side of the roster, exacerbating the lack of scoring today. Some 22-year-old who can hit 98 on the radar gun is a team's sixth inning specialist, while Carlos Quentin and his .484 career slugging percentage (28th among 127 active players with 3,000 or more plate appearances) sits at home, texting his agent every other day asking whether anybody called. In this year's Hardball Times Annual, longtime baseball analyst Craig Wright proposes gradually capping the number of pitchers on major league rosters at 9 or 10. This, he believes, would have many benefits: Fewer pitching changes (so shorter games), pitchers pacing themselves more (so fewer strikeouts and, possibly, fewer arm injuries), more hitters and fewer tough pitcher/hitter matchups (so more scoring). Add to that list: The liberation of Carlos Quentin.
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