Rewind: Carlos Quentin

As noted here, this is primarily a Pittsburgh Pirates blog. However, I'll handle general baseball topics from time to time, including an occasional lookback to prior posts.

Back in January, I advocated the Baltimore Orioles trading for Carlos Quentin, then a spare part in the San Diego Padres' outfield. The Orioles had lost designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Seattle Mariners via free agency. Quentin was a bust with the Padres, partly because of lost time to injuries, but from 2008 to 2011 he averaged 120 games per season as on outfielder/designated hitter for the Chicago White Sox. With the Orioles, I envisioned him as primarily a DH, since his work in the outfield (1) contributed to his injury-related absences and (2) stunk. He'd fill a roster hole for the Orioles, and I pointed out that

Quentin is good at getting on base. Among the 168 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances between 2008 and 2014, he ranks 47th with a .352 on base percentage. The Orioles led the majors in home runs last year, easily, with 211, and were second in the AL in slugging percentage with .422, but only sixth in runs scored, with 705. The reason is that their .311 on base percentage was fifth worst in the league. They didn't get enough guys on base to take advantage of the long balls. The current Orioles roster has only three hitters with 30+ games played last year with a 2014 on base percentage better than the league average of .316. Quentin would address the team's key offensive weakness.

Since then, two things have happened:

1. The Orioles have mixed-and-matched at DH. Travis Snider and Chris Davis have started three games each, Delmon Young's started twice, and Steve Pearce once. Collectively, they've been awful: .152 batting average (second lowest in the league), no extra-base hits, .243 on base percentage (third lowest in the league).
2. Quentin was traded to the Atlanta Braves on April 5 in a blockbuster deal involving closer Craig Kimbrel. The Braves designated him for assignment (or DFA, a precursor to releasing a player under contract) the next day and released him on April 14. Quentin's a free agent, and can be signed by any team for the major league minimum of $507,500, with the Braves responsible for the remainder of his $8 million contract.

So I thought: No-brainer! The Orioles don't really have a DH, the guys they've used have been lousy, and cheapskate owner Peter Angelos can get Quentin for the major league minimum! Let's do this!

Then I read an article by Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus, entitled, appropriately enough, "Carlos Quentin's DFA is This Godforsaken Era in a Nutshell." Matthew posits that

Carlos Quentin is the victim of the modern MLB roster, and he helps explain the offensive famine that has so starved us all for runs over the past five years

Why is that? Matthew explains:

The reason is that teams are so loaded with relievers that their bench spots all need to go to versatile players who can play a premium defensive position. You get a backup catcher, a fourth outfielder (who had better be able to play center), a utility infielder (who had better be able to play shortstop), and one other guy.

Basically, the roster spot that a hitter like Quentin would fill is now being occupied by a team's 13th pitcher. Why did the Tampa Bay Rays give 111 plate appearances at DH--17% of the team's total--to utility infielder/outfielders Sean Rodriguez and Logan Forsythe last year, who combined for just three home runs? Because they didn't have room on the roster for a bat-only guy. Eight-man bullpens squeeze the hitting side of the roster, exacerbating the lack of scoring today. Some 22-year-old who can hit 98 on the radar gun is a team's sixth inning specialist, while Carlos Quentin and his .484 career slugging percentage (28th among 127 active players with 3,000 or more plate appearances) sits at home, texting his agent every other day asking whether anybody called. 

In this year's Hardball Times Annual, longtime baseball analyst Craig Wright proposes gradually capping the number of pitchers on major league rosters at 9 or 10. This, he believes, would have many benefits: Fewer pitching changes (so shorter games), pitchers pacing themselves more (so fewer strikeouts and, possibly, fewer arm injuries), more hitters and fewer tough pitcher/hitter matchups (so more scoring). Add to that list: The liberation of Carlos Quentin.

If the Orioles Are Really Going to Do Something

I think the Orioles should trade for San Diego's Carlos Quentin.

Let me rewind a bit. It's been a very quiet offseason for Baltimore. They lost three regulars from their 2014 American League East championship squad to free agency: Right fielder Nick Markakis, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and left-handed reliever Andrew Miller. They replaced them with...well, they haven't done much of anything. Until yesterday, their biggest roster move was to re-sign free agent left fielder/DH Delmon Young, who had 255 plate appearances last year. Like every team, they added some fringe-type players, mostly signed to minor league contracts. But until yesterday, when they traded for Pirates outfielder Travis Snider, who started 47 games in right field for Pittsburgh last year, they've done nothing to replace the three players I listed above. And while Snider had a decent year in Pittsburgh, with a .264/.338/.438 slash line in 359 plate appearances, it was his first above-average season since 2010. 

There've also been questions raised about the reason for their inactivity. The Toronto Blue Jays wanted to hire Baltimore's general manager, Dan Duquette as their CEO. Duquette is under contract with the Orioles through 2017. Orioles owner Peter Angelos reportedly demanded a king's ransom (three top prospects) from the Blue Jays in order to take Duquette. (Not that this is a common occurrence, but the industry standard appears to be to let a front office employee depart for a promotion, and to get perhaps one prospect as compensation for a lateral move. This would be a promotion for Duquette, who is the Orioles' executive vice president of baseball operations, so Angelos insisting on compensation is a bit aggressive, and going for elite compensation is pretty out there.) This leaves the Orioles in the bizarre position of having their top everyday executive apparently desirous of working for one of Baltimore's American League East opponents. In turn, there's a question as to how dedicated Duquette is in improving the team. Yesterday, the Blue Jays announced that their incumbent CEO, Paul Beeston, will stay on through the end of the current season, after which he'll retire. That, of course, leaves open the question of who'll fill the role in 2016.

Lost in this controversy is the fact that the Orioles didn't do a lot last winter, either, until the very end. In December 2013, they traded for outfielder David Lough, who was basically a late-inning defensive substitute in the outfield (112 games played, but just 47 started) and signed right-handed reliever Ryan Webb, who pitched 49.1 innings of middle relief spread over 51 games. They traded their closer, Jim Johnson, to Oakland in what turned out to be a brilliant move, as Johnson turned into a pumpkin, going from 50 saves and a 2.94 ERA in 2013 to two saves and a 7.09 ERA in 2014. They signed the aforementioned Delmon Young in January. That's pretty much it. Their big moves--signing free agents Ubaldo Jiminez and Cruz--didn't occur until late February, and only the Cruz signing worked out. Jiminez, signed for four years and $50 million, was 6-9 with a 4.81 ERA last season. Cruz, signed to a one-year $8 million contract, led the league in home runs with 40 and finished seventh in the MVP voting. The Mariners signed him to a four year, $57 million contract in December.

So maybe the plan is, like last year, to more or less stand pat and then make some moves once spring training starts. Still, the team is down a right fielder (unless Snider takes a big step forward), a DH, and a middle reliever. Middle relievers are pretty fungible in modern baseball--every team has young guys in their system who can throw gas for an inning. They probably can't do it a skillfully as Miller, who compiled a 2.02 ERA over 73 games split between Boston and Baltimore, striking out 103 and allowing just 53 baserunners (hits, hit batters, and unintentional walks) over 62.1 innings last year, but the Orioles at least have options there. As for Markakis, I wrote back in December that Alejandro de Aza, whom the Orioles acquired last August, may provide comparable value. So I don't view those as glaring holes.

Plus, the Orioles will enter the season with a presumably healthy catcher Matt Wieters (who played just 26 games last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery last June) and third baseman Manny Machado (who missed half the season with various knee ailments). First baseman Chris Davis is done serving a drug suspension for Adderol. So three key players will be back, although Davis was pretty bad last year (.196/.300/.404 slash line and 26 homers after hitting .286/.370/.634 with 53 homers in 2013). If Davis falters, Steve Pearce, who had a .293/.373/.556 slash line last year, easily the best of his career, can play first.

Which leaves designated hitter. That's where Quentin comes in. He was awful for San Diego last year, and only a half-time player the two prior seasons:

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2012	29	86	340	284	44	74	21	0	16	46	36	41	.261	.374	.504	.877	146
2013	30	82	320	276	42	76	21	0	13	44	31	55	.275	.363	.493	.855	145
2014	31	50	155	130	9	23	6	0	4	18	17	33	.177	.284	.315	.599	75
SDP (3 yrs)		218	815	690	95	173	48	0	33	108	84	129	.251	.352	.464	.816	132

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.

So why should the Orioles trade for him? Here's my logic:

• The Orioles can buy low on Quentin, given his lousy recent performance.
• The Padres have a serious logjam in their outfield. They added three full-time players via trade (former Dodger Matt Kemp, former Brave Justin Upton, and former Ray Wil Myers). They still have Will Venable (146 games played last year) and Cameron Maybin (95 games). They need to deal somebody.
• Quentin is signed for $8 million this year, the same as Cruz earned in 2014. His contract has a $10 million mutual option for 2016, subject to a $3 million buyout if he plays 320 games in 2013-2015, which he won't. In other words, he'll cost $8 million in 2015 and $10 million in 2016 if all goes well, nothing if it doesn't. That's pretty reasonable.
• The reason he's missed so much time is that he's had a series of injuries. Since joining the Padres, he's been out with knee, wrist, shoulder, and groin injuries, including three stints covering 152 games on the disabled list. Quentin is a bad outfielder, enough so that he'll probably be healthier if he doesn't have to spend half the game running around chasing balls while wearing a glove. (He also gets hit by pitches a lot.) Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez are Hall of Fame-caliber players who went from oft-injured to extremely durable once they became full-time DHs. Not that Quentin's another Molitor or Martinez, but a full-time DH role could keep him in the lineup more.
• Amplifying that point, prior to playing in San Diego, Quentin played for the White Sox, mostly as an outfielder but also as DH, with better durability:

Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2008 ★	25	130	480	96	138	26	1	36	100	66	80	.288	.394	.571	.965	149
2009	26	99	351	47	83	14	0	21	56	31	52	.236	.323	.456	.779	98
2010	27	131	453	73	110	25	2	26	87	50	83	.243	.342	.479	.821	119
2011 ★	28	118	421	53	107	31	0	24	77	34	84	.254	.340	.499	.838	122
CHW (4 yrs)		478	1705	269	438	96	3	107	320	181	299	.257	.352	.505	.857	124

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.
• The Padres' home field, Petco Park, is the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball. The 2015 Bill James Baseball Handbook estimates that it suppresses home runs by 12%, home runs by right-handed hitters like Quentin by 24%, and runs by 17% compared to the average NL ballpark. In his three seasons there, Quentin slugged just .394 at home but a robust .510 on the road. His overall numbers were clearly dragged down by his home park. Oriole Park, by contrast, is more hitter-friendly, boosting runs by 5% and righties' homers by 7%. Quentin's overall numbers would benefit from a move.
• Quentin is good at getting on base. Among the 168 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances between 2008 and 2014, he ranks 47th with a .352 on base percentage. The Orioles led the majors in home runs last year, easily, with 211, and were second in the AL in slugging percentage with .422, but only sixth in runs scored, with 705. The reason is that their .311 on base percentage was fifth worst in the league. They didn't get enough guys on base to take advantage of the long balls. The current Orioles roster has only three hitters with 30+ games played last year with a 2014 on base percentage better than the league average of .316: Pearce (.373), Young (.337), and Machado (.324). Quentin would address the team's key offensive weakness. 

Track record as a DH, buy low, reasonable contract (always a plus for Angelos), fills a need...all the Orioles need is for Duquette to continue to show signs of life. Do it, Dan. You're not going to work for the Blue Jays this year anyway.

Flyover: Baltimore Orioles

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Baltimore Orioles are leading the American League East with a 75-56 record. Their six-game lead over the second-place Yankees is the largest in the league. They moved into a tie for first on July 3 and stayed there ever since. As was the case the last time they qualified for the postseason, their record has some lucky indicators--they lead the league in both extra-inning wins (12-5) and one-run wins (25-19), but they also have the fourth-best run differential in the league and the second best record against winning teams. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Orioles' 17-10 record over the past 30 days gives them the second-most wins in the American League, behind the 21-7 Royals and tied with the 17-9 Mariners and 17-11 Angels. It's allowed them to expand their lead from 2.5 games a month ago to 6.0 today. They've done it with pitching (2.89 ERA, third best in the league), particularly the bullpen (an absurdly good 1.73 ERA, easily the best in the league) and an offense that's been good enough: sixth in runs scored, second in OPS, way more home runs (42) than anybody else (the Astros are second with 32). About the only thing they haven't had--not that they've needed it--is team speed, as they have no triples and just six stolen bases over the past month. The only dark cloud was the loss of third baseman Manny Machado to season-ending knee surgery. He last played on August 11. They're 8-6 in the games since.

What's Going RIght? The starting pitchers have been decent, with a 3.49 ERA over the past month. That's eighth in the league, but way ahead of the ninth-place Tigers at 4.17 and the league average of 3.90. The bullpen, as noted above, has been lights out. The Royals, Mariners, and Orioles haven't blown a save in the past month, and the Orioles relievers have allowed only three homers, tied with the Mariners for fewest in the league. While they've made fewer pitches in the strike zone (46.5%) than any other AL relief corps, they're third with swings induced on 34.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. The relievers have the league's fifth-highest strikeout rate and third-lowest walk rate over the past month. 

On offense, the story has been the power surge. Over the last 30 days, first baseman (and now, with Machado hurt, third baseman) Chris Davis has six homers, tied for fourth-most in the league, and the O's have three players with five (LF-DH Nelson Cruz, catcher Caleb Joseph, 1B-LF Steve Pearce) and four more with four (shortstop J.J. Hardy, CF Adam Jones, RF Nick Markakis, 2B Jonathan Schoop). There are a lot of unlikely sources there. Davis has batted .149 over the month with three singles, four doubles, and six homers. Joseph is a 28-year-old rookie catcher who's playing only because catcher Matt Wieters is out for the season with Tommy John surgery. Pearce has an interesting history: The O's bought him from the Yankees in June 2012, lost him to the Astros on waivers in July 2012, claimed him on waivers in September 2012, released him on April 27 this year, and then re-signed him two days later. Rookie second baseman Schoop has the lowest on base percentage in baseball (.251) among players with 390 or more plate appearances. The team's second-best .433 slugging percentage has outweighed a league-worst .297 on-base percentage.

What's Going Wrong? Obviously, if some of those fly balls stop clearing the fence--the O's have had nearly 15% of their fly balls land in the stands over the past month compared to the league average of 9% and the team's season-long average of less than 11%--that lousy on-base percentage is going to be a problem. They have a middle-of-the-pack .247 batting average but they've walked in just 5.7% of their plate appearances over the past month, well below every team in the league but the White Sox and Royals.

While It's hard to knock the performance of the relievers, the starters gotten batters to swing at only 28% of pitchers outside the strike zone, perhaps indicating that the starters aren't fooling opposing batters. Both the starters (.272) and the relievers (.228!) are sporting batting averages on balls in play well below the league averages of .296 and .286, respectively. Gaps that wide are hard to preserve. 

Who's Hot? The relievers are all hot. In particular, over the past 30 days, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, and Andrew Miller have combined for a 0.25 ERA, 44 strikeouts, and 24 baserunners in 35 innings. That's allowed closer Zach Britton to go 9-for-9 in saves, even though his 3.27 ERA is the worst over the past month for Orioles relievers with more than one inning pitched. The standout starter has been Chris Tillman (4-0, 1.26 ERA), helped by a .174 batting average on balls in play. 

Among batters with more than 60 plate appearances in the past month, Hardy, Pearce, and Joseph hold the top three positions among Orioles batters in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. I listed all the Orioles hitters with four or more homers over the 30 days above; all but leadoff hitter Markakis has at least 10 RBI, and all but bottom-of-the-order Schoop and Joseph have scored at least 10 runs. 

Who's Not? Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched himself out of the rotation for now after compiling an 8.36 ERA over his last three starts. The club's two biggest sluggers, Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis, have been pretty bad. Davis is batting .149, worst in the league over the past 30 days, has a second-worst .219 on base percentage, and has stuck out in 36.5% of his plate appearances of late, the most among American League hitters. Cruz is batting .200 with a .248 on base percentage, sixth worst in the league. On July 7, Cruz went 3-for-5 with a homer, capping a three-game streak in which he went 11-for-16 with two homers and five runs batted in, raising his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage to 2.94/.359/.591. Since then, he's hitting .173/.247/.333. And as noted above, outside of the homers, Schoop's bat has been bad.

What's the Outlook? It's a virtual certainty that Baltimore's bullpen won't remain this good nor that its hitters won't continue their torrid home run pace. But it's also unlikely that Davis and Cruz will stay this bad, and there's little to make you think the starting pitchers can't remain solid, particularly with Jimenez now in the bullpen to work out his problems. The Orioles have built up enough of a lead that they're favorites to win the division even if the relievers' ERA and the hitters' percentage of fly balls becoming home runs return to earth. Whether they'll go deep into the postseason is another story. They seem to be the best team in what has surprisingly become a weak division.