Next Up: The San Diego Padres

The Pirates host three games against the San Diego Padres before winding up play before the All-Star break with four games against the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. If it seems as if the Pirates just played the Padres yet haven't played their intra-division rival Cardinals since the start of the season, well, that's correct. The Pirates split four games in San Diego on May 28-31 and haven't seen the Cards since going 2-4 against St. Louis in two series spread over the first ten days of May.

How Are They Doing Lately? I'm going to repeat what I said in my preview for the May series, since almost nothing's changed: The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 39-45, in fourth place, 7.5 games behind the Dodgers, 3.5 behind the Giants, and 2 behind the Diamondbacks. They trail the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 11-17, the third-worst record in the league. They've scored 3.3 runs per game, fourth fewest in the league over the 30 days, and given up 4.8 per game, the third most.

Since the clubs met in May, the Padres let their manager, Bud Black, go. Pat Murphy holds the title of interim manager.

What's Going Right? Um...well...their offense is sixth in the league in walks and home runs. It's pretty hard to find things to say positive about the pitching staff: They've allowed 34% of baserunners to score, the most in the league, and that's such a high percentage that it's bound to come down.

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been pretty nonexistent over the last 30 days. They're last in the league in batting at .219 and on-base percentage at .278, and they're third to last in slugging at .357. The starters have an ERA of 4.33 and the relievers 3.45 over the last 30 days, each fifth worst in the league. 

Who's Hot? Only two Padres starters have ERAs below 5 over the past 30 days; the Pirates will face one, Tyson Ross (3.38), who hasn't allowed a home run since April. Closer Kimbrel's recovered from a shaky start and has a 0.82 ERA, 9-for-9 in saves, with 15 strikeouts over 11 innings of late. The team's other three primary relievers--Joaquin Benoit, Shawn Kelly, and Brandon Maurer--have been almost as good, with a combined 1.60 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over the past 30 days. As for the offense, put it this way: Clint Barmes is the only Padres batter over the last 30 days with a batting average over .285 and a slugging percentage above .500--both OK but not great numbers--is Clint Barmes. Yes, Pirates fans, Clint Barmes, the no-hit, good-glove shortstop who lost his job last year to Jordy Mercer. When your best hitter's a 36 year old middle infielder with a .247 career batting average, that's a team in a slump. 

Who's Not? Well, let's go through that list of big acquisitions. Over the past 30 days, Upton's batting .186 with two homers and a .278 slugging percentage. Myers is on the disabled list. Kemp is batting .231. Norris is batting .163. Middlebrooks is batting .159. Shields has a 5.59 ERA. I could go on.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are a better team than the Padres, but the Padres aren't as bad as they've been lately. At some point, the hitters will start hitting again and the starters will pitch to form. For now, San Diego's top relievers make jumping to the first lead imperative.

Next Up: The San Diego Padres

Sorry, a day late. But honestly, are you awake for these west coast games that don't start until 10 PM Eastern time? I had a job for which I traveled a lot, and trips to the west coast could be brutal. Sometimes I boarded a plane in the east around 6 AM (work backwards to figure out when I had to wake up), land on the west coast at 1:30 PM or so Pacific time, go to a couple meetings, and then have a dinner that didn't start until about 7 PM Pacific, by which time I'd been awake (other than any sleep time on the plane) for like 19 straight hours or so.

The Pirates faced something similar. They had an afternoon game at PNC Park on Wednesday followed by a night game in San Diego on Thursday. Granted, they flew on a charter flight (I almost always had to change planes somewhere) and they stay at really nice hotels. Still, let's think about the games in terms of the Eastern time zone. It was a 12:35 PM start on Wednesday, so let's assume the players had to get to the ballpark by about 9:00 AM. That means they probably got their wake-up call no later than 7:00 or 7:30. The game took 2:38, so they shower, change, get on the bus and let's say the plane is wheels up at 4:30 PM. There aren't any direct flights from Pittsburgh to San Diego, but a direct to Los Angeles takes 5:13. So let's assume the Pirates' charter, barring any air traffic control delays, is on the ground in San Diego by 9:30-10:00 PM. (Flight times for domestic carriers are always inflated, so that delays don't mess with the airline's on-time performance.) That has them in their rooms, bags unpacked, by 10:00-10:30. (The airport in San Diego is very conveniently located, near downtown.) But that's only 7:00-7:30 PM Pacific, and they haven't had a real meal, so they grab dinner, and even if it's room service, they're not in bed until midnight or so our time. The game Thursday started at 7:05 PM, so the players probably started arriving at Petco Park, I don't know, 1:00 or 2:00? But hang on--they landed Wednesday on East Coast time. How many of them woke up at 5:00 AM Thursday (8:00 AM Eastern), with the first pitch over 14 hours away? I listened to the radio broadcast of the game Wednesday, and radio commentator Steve Blass remarked that the first day of a West Coast trip always felt two days long. I don't have time to dig it up right now, but I'm pretty sure that teams traveling east-to-west with games on consecutive days have a lower-than-expected won-lost record in the first game in the Pacific time zone. Which, of course, the Pirates didn't, winning 11-5. 

Anyway, there are three more games with the Padres, followed by three in San Francisco, so let's look more closely at San Diego. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 23-26, in third place, 6.5 games behind the Dodgers and 6.0 behind the Giants. They trail the Giants, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, and Braves in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 12-15, tied with the Brewers and the Mets for the fifth-worst record in the league.

What's Going Right? Not a whole lot of late. The bullpen's been okay, with a seventh-best-in-the-league 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days, and they're one of only three teams with only one blown save over that period. But they're tied for the seventh-fewest saves and the fifth-fewest holds because they haven't been handed leads.

What's Going Wrong? They've gotten inconsistent starting pitching (4.68 ERA, third-highest in the league) and their offense has the third-lowest batting average (.233), second-lowest on-base percentage (.293), and second-lowest slugging percentage (.340). Bad starting pitching and no offense isn't a formula for success. The Padres' defense is awful; depending on the methodology, either the Padres or the Phillies are the worst-fielding team in the league, and it's not close. 

Who's Hot? While Kimbrel's had a tough go of it of late, the team's other three top relievers by innings pitched over the past 30 days, Brandon Mauer, Kevin Quackenbush, and Dale Thayer, have combined for a 2.11 ERA over 38.1 innings. Shields has a 4-0 record over the past 30 days, but that's because the offense has given him a lot of run support, as his ERA over the stretch is 4.60. By contrast, the offense has scored for starters Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, who are a combined 2-6 over the past 30 days despite ERAs of 3.23 and 3.19, respectively. On offense, Upton (.320/.398/.540 slash line over the past 30 days) has lived up to the hype, and Myers (.300/.404/.500) has been good too. Unfortunately, Myers is on the disabled list, though his understudy, Will Venable (.323/.405/.431) has performed well. 

Who's Not? Over the past 30 days, Kimbrel has a 7.45 ERA, but that shrinks to 3.24 without two terrible outings against Houston (three runs in a third of an inning) and Arizona (two runs in an inning). That 3.24 ERA is still a far cry from his career total of 1.43 entering the season, but he's struck out 16 over the past 9.2 innings, so he hasn't fallen off a cliff. After Shields, Cashner, and Ross, the rotation's been a mess, with a combined 6.48 ERA. Kemp's been terrible (.181/.216/.219 slash line over the past 30 days), shortstop Alexi Amarista has been worse (.169/.236/.200), and the replacement for injured first baseman Yonder Alonso, Yangervis Solarte, is hitting .232/.276/.303 over the past 30 days.

What's the Outlook? The Padres have, on paper, three strong starting pitchers, a dominant closer, a star-studded outfield and...well, the weather in San Diego's great and the ballpark's really nice. It's hard to imagine Kemp staying this awful, and Myers and Alonso should provide a boost when they return. The team could still snatch a wild-card spot. 

In the series, the Pirates face Shields and Ross, two of San Diego's best pitchers, over the next two games, so it'd surprise me if their seven-game winning streak gets to ten by the time they leave San Diego. Still, if they can take two of the next three, they'd be 27-23, a .540 winning percentage that's comparable to the .543 won-lost they compiled last season. But then they head up the coast for three against the red-hot Giants, who, along with the Nationals, are the only team in the majors to have won 20 games over the past 30 days. 

Rewind: Carlos Quentin

As noted here, this is primarily a Pittsburgh Pirates blog. However, I'll handle general baseball topics from time to time, including an occasional lookback to prior posts.

Back in January, I advocated the Baltimore Orioles trading for Carlos Quentin, then a spare part in the San Diego Padres' outfield. The Orioles had lost designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Seattle Mariners via free agency. Quentin was a bust with the Padres, partly because of lost time to injuries, but from 2008 to 2011 he averaged 120 games per season as on outfielder/designated hitter for the Chicago White Sox. With the Orioles, I envisioned him as primarily a DH, since his work in the outfield (1) contributed to his injury-related absences and (2) stunk. He'd fill a roster hole for the Orioles, and I pointed out that

Quentin is good at getting on base. Among the 168 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances between 2008 and 2014, he ranks 47th with a .352 on base percentage. The Orioles led the majors in home runs last year, easily, with 211, and were second in the AL in slugging percentage with .422, but only sixth in runs scored, with 705. The reason is that their .311 on base percentage was fifth worst in the league. They didn't get enough guys on base to take advantage of the long balls. The current Orioles roster has only three hitters with 30+ games played last year with a 2014 on base percentage better than the league average of .316. Quentin would address the team's key offensive weakness.

Since then, two things have happened:

1. The Orioles have mixed-and-matched at DH. Travis Snider and Chris Davis have started three games each, Delmon Young's started twice, and Steve Pearce once. Collectively, they've been awful: .152 batting average (second lowest in the league), no extra-base hits, .243 on base percentage (third lowest in the league).
2. Quentin was traded to the Atlanta Braves on April 5 in a blockbuster deal involving closer Craig Kimbrel. The Braves designated him for assignment (or DFA, a precursor to releasing a player under contract) the next day and released him on April 14. Quentin's a free agent, and can be signed by any team for the major league minimum of $507,500, with the Braves responsible for the remainder of his $8 million contract.

So I thought: No-brainer! The Orioles don't really have a DH, the guys they've used have been lousy, and cheapskate owner Peter Angelos can get Quentin for the major league minimum! Let's do this!

Then I read an article by Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus, entitled, appropriately enough, "Carlos Quentin's DFA is This Godforsaken Era in a Nutshell." Matthew posits that

Carlos Quentin is the victim of the modern MLB roster, and he helps explain the offensive famine that has so starved us all for runs over the past five years

Why is that? Matthew explains:

The reason is that teams are so loaded with relievers that their bench spots all need to go to versatile players who can play a premium defensive position. You get a backup catcher, a fourth outfielder (who had better be able to play center), a utility infielder (who had better be able to play shortstop), and one other guy.

Basically, the roster spot that a hitter like Quentin would fill is now being occupied by a team's 13th pitcher. Why did the Tampa Bay Rays give 111 plate appearances at DH--17% of the team's total--to utility infielder/outfielders Sean Rodriguez and Logan Forsythe last year, who combined for just three home runs? Because they didn't have room on the roster for a bat-only guy. Eight-man bullpens squeeze the hitting side of the roster, exacerbating the lack of scoring today. Some 22-year-old who can hit 98 on the radar gun is a team's sixth inning specialist, while Carlos Quentin and his .484 career slugging percentage (28th among 127 active players with 3,000 or more plate appearances) sits at home, texting his agent every other day asking whether anybody called. 

In this year's Hardball Times Annual, longtime baseball analyst Craig Wright proposes gradually capping the number of pitchers on major league rosters at 9 or 10. This, he believes, would have many benefits: Fewer pitching changes (so shorter games), pitchers pacing themselves more (so fewer strikeouts and, possibly, fewer arm injuries), more hitters and fewer tough pitcher/hitter matchups (so more scoring). Add to that list: The liberation of Carlos Quentin.

Happy Opening Day!

Here's a fantastic heartwarming piece by the great Joe Posnanski. He calls it "A Baseball Story." It's not. It's a human potential story. Posnanski is a national treasure.

Now, on to the season. Last year I did detailed predictions for each division. Given that the season's started, and I was out of the country since mid-March, I'm not going to do that this year. But let's get some stakes in the ground:

National League East
Washington Nationals, 91-71: There are, in my mind, five locks in baseball this season. Three are in this division. This is one of them. The Nationals are, to me, clearly the best team in the division, arguably in the league.
New York Mets, 84-78: Mets fans are pessimistic about the team. Mets fans have learned their pessimism from experience. Still, even with young righthander Zack Wheeler out with Tommy John surgery, this is a...well, not excellent, but an okay team. Sure, the offense is suspect, but in 2015, just about everybody's offense is suspect.
Miami Marlins, 81-81: The Marlins are kind of a fashionable pick. I don't care for that fashion. The outfield's great, and they have some good arms, but there are too many weaknesses elsewhere for me to get excited.
Atlanta Braves, 69-93: Lock No. 2. The Braves have all but admitted they're in rebuilding mode, shedding stars (Jayson Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel) for prospects. But they won't be in last place because...
Philadelphia Phillies, 64-98: ...the Phillies are probably the worst team in baseball right now. Lock No. 3

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals, 89-73: Yes, the Cards have a great farm system, but they're also reliant on some older players (Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday) who are going to get old someday. Probably not today, though.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 85-77: Probably the best outfield in baseball, but the loss of catcher Russell Martin to free agency will be felt, and I have a hard time seeing last year's surprise hero, Josh Harrison, duplicating his performance.
Chicago Cubs, 81-81: Cool your jets, Cubs fans. Your farm system's fantastic, even after graduating a lot of guys to the majors. You got Jon Lester and Joe Maddon during the offseason. But this was a last-place, 89-loss team last year. Getting to .500 would be a tremendous improvement.
Milwaukee Brewers, 78-84: They spent most of last season in first place. I'd be surprised if they see much if it this year.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: They can't hit, and if they're out of contention at the All-Star Break, they might trade starting pitcher Johnny Cueto, an impending free agent, and then things would get really ugly.

National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers, 94-68: The fourth lock. They've been criticized by some for trading outfielder Matt Kemp and second baseman Dee Gordon, but the replacements (rookie Joc Pederson, former Angel Howie Kendrick) could wind up being just about as good.
San Diego Padres, 86-76: Another trendy pick, as new GM A.J. Preller remade the team. They'll be better, but the infield's awful.
San Francisco Giants, 84-78: No, it's not just because the Giants win only in even-numbered years. They lost third baseman Pablo Sandoval to free agency, outfielder Hunter Pence is on the disabled list, and there are a lot of questions in the rotation after postseason hero Madison Bumgarner.
Colorado Rockies, 78-84: DON'T SAY IT. Yes, I know, this team could be pretty good if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez can stay in the lineup together. But they can't. One or the other will get hurt. Or both. Don't get your hopes up.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 71-91: I wouldn't say they're a lock for last, but they're not a good club, either. Worst record in baseball last year, you know.

American League East
Boston Red Sox, 88-74: Viva la parity. The additions of Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, and the presumed return to health of Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli, makes the team's offense formidable. The pitching...not so much. But this is no longer a killer division.
Toronto Blue Jays, 84-78: Really, you could almost draw the names of these five teams out of a hat; they're all pretty close. I really like the additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.
New York Yankees, 82-80: Because the Yankees are incapable of finishing a season with a losing record.
Baltimore Orioles, 80-82: Over the past three seasons, the O's have won the second-most games in the American League. I haven't been able to figure out why. The batters don't get on base a lot and the starting rotation is unimpressive if solid. In Buck we trust, I suppose. I'm probably going to be wrong about them again.
Tampa Bay Rays, 77-85: I think the departure of GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon are the beginning of the end for one of my favorite teams. (I like small-market, low-budget teams.)

American League Central
Detroit Tigers, 88-74: They've won four divisional titles in a row. The streak will come to an end, probably soon, as the team's getting old. But I don't think this is they year.
Cleveland Indians, 84-78: Another trendy pick, and I would like nothing more than to see this small-market, low-budget team succeed. But the team's pitchers, unbelievable in the second half of the year (2.95 starter ERA, best in the league), are due for regression, and the team's defense won't help. But I'll be pulling for them, if for no other reason than radio announcer Tom Hamilton's home run calls.
Chicago White Sox, 83-79: Another greatly improved team - they lost 89 games last year - but not enough to contend, yet.
Kansas City Royals, 79-83: Yeah, I know, they came within a game of winning the World Championship. But they didn't win their division, and they kind of lucked their way to a wild card win. Over the winter, they lost their No. 1 starter and their DH. I'm not buying sustained success.
Minnesota Twins, 70-92: My fifth and final lock. I've documented my lack of affection for the Twins.

American League West
Seattle Mariners, 89-73: You can make a case that the other two top contenders in this tight division enter 2015 weaker than 2014. Not so the Mariners.
Los Angeles Angels, 86-76: They had the best record in baseball last year. But they enter the season with concerns in the rotation and at second base and overpaid slugger Josh Hamilton recovering from shoulder surgery and a drug relapse.
Oakland Athletics, 79-83: I mentioned that I don't understand how the Orioles have managed the second-most wins in the league over the past three years. I even more don't understand how the A's are No. 1, but they are. What they did this offseason strikes me as a teardown. But I've been wrong before.
Houston Astros, 79-83: Everything is going according to plan. The Astros improved by 19 games last year, and I see another nine this year. Eight or so next year, and they're talking playoffs.
Texas Rangers, 75-87: I thought they might rebound strongly from their injury-riddled 2014, but then ace pitcher Yu Darvish went down with Tommy John surgery.

The NL West: Time Zones, Ballparks, and Social Investing

My latest FanGraphs post is here. I talk about the National League West, which I view as the most idiosyncratic division in baseball, due to three factors:

1. Four of the five teams in the Pacific time zone and the fifth in the Mountain zone, resulting in more games played late for those of us in the Eastern and Central zones than in any other division
2. The most eccentric mix of extreme hitters' parks and extreme pitchers' parks in baseball
3. The decision by two teams (the Diamondbacks and Rockies) to pursue specific character types, which I liken to social investing

Some of my FanGraphs posts get pretty numbers-heavy. This one isn't.

Reality Check: Steve Garvey

If you've read this blog, you probably know that I listen to SiriusXM's MLB Network Radio a lot. It's pretty much the only thing I have on in my car (though I like some programs less than others, and I have almost no patience with PED and Hall of Fame discussions, fan call-ins, and the insufferable ads they run for GEICO and DISH). You listen long enough, you get to know some of the radio hosts' traits. Former major league second baseman Steve Sax, for instance, really dislikes batters striking out. He often talks about how it's become accepted, and that's bad, because it's better to put the ball in play. He does think that the trend of more and more strikeouts, and batters viewing that as no problem, is changing, though. (That's an interesting observation, given that there were more strikeouts per game in 2014 than ever before in baseball history, and that record's been broken for seven straight years.)

Anyway, one of the guys he extolled as someone who didn't strike out a lot was his Dodgers teammate Steve Garvey. He noted that Garvey was good for 25 to 32 home runs a year, yet never struck out as much as 100 times. (By contrast, 117 players--yes, that's correct--struck out at least 100 times in 2014.)

Garvey's an interesting case. Sax is right; his high year for strikeouts was 1977, when he whiffed 90 times. However, he hit that 25-to-32 home run range only three times: 33 in 1977 (close enough to 32), 28 in 1979, and 26 in 1980. He was pretty well-regarded in his day, though: MVP in 1974, runner-up in 1978, sixth in the voting three times, ten-time All-Star, hit .300 or better seven times. But was he really that great?

Let's start with what I think was his best skill: The guy stayed in the lineup. He missed six games in 1974, two in 1975, and no more until he was traded to the Padres after the 1982 season. In San Diego, he missed one game in 1984, none in 1985, and seven in 1986. Staying in the lineup is a skill, and Garvey possessed it in abundance. He holds the National League record for consecutive games played with 1,207.

But beyond that, his offensive contribution gets overstated, I think. He was a regular from 1974 to 1986. During those years, there were 41 first basemen with seasons of 25 or more home runs. Garvey, as noted, had three. That ties him with a couple forgettable guys, Steve Balboni and Jason Thompson, who also had three seasons of 25+ homers during those 13 years. Eddie Murray did it seven times. And I totally cherry-picked the seasons, using only Garvey's years as a regular. If I cast a wider net by three years, going from 1971 to 1989, Glenn Davis, Kent Hrbek, Don Mattingly, John Mayberry, Mark McGwire, and Willie Stargell get added to the list; Davis had 25+ homers four times during those years, and the other guys all did it three times. And I'm counting only games played at first base, so that denies players like Cecil Cooper, who hit 32 homers in 1982 and 30 in 1983 but one of his 25 bombs in 1980 as a DH. Point is: Garvey's home run numbers were nothing special. Among first basemen since about 1938 (there aren't data before then, and some of the data in the earlier years are incomplete), Garvey ranks eighth in games played but 27th in home runs. 

But home runs don't tell the whole story. I've explained why on base percentage and slugging percentage are important indicators of a batter's abilities. Over Garvey's career, from 1970 to 1987 (I'm ignoring his three at bats in 1969), there were 31 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances as a first baseman. Not surprisingly, Garvey played the most: 2,052 games as a first baseman, 116 more than the runner-up, Chris Chambliss. Of those 45, Garvey ranks a middle-of-the-pack 15th in slugging percentage but 27th in on base percentage. His OPS--the measure that combines the two--of .783 is 21st overall, just behind George Scott at .786 and just ahead of Willie Upshaw at .781. As I noted above, Garvey finished in the top six in MVP voting five times. That's five times more than George Scott and Willie Upshaw combined, as you might imagine. Somebody's overrated or somebody's underrated.

But he was the best player on a run of successful teams, right? Garvey played for the 1974-82 Dodgers, which  won their division three times and finished second five times, and the 1983-86 Padres, which finished first in 1984. Well, here's a season-by-season list of the top three hitters on Garvey's teams, ranked 1-2-3 by park-adjusted OPS:

• 1974: Jim Wynn, Joe Ferguson, Garvey
• 1975: Ron Cey, Garvey and Wynn (tied)
• 1976: Cey, Garvey, Bill Buckner
• 1977: Reggie Smith, Dusty Baker, Garvey
• 1978: Smith, Garvey, Cey
• 1979: Cey, Ferguson, Garvey
• 1980: Smith, Baker, Garvey
• 1981: Cey, Pedro Guerrero, Baker (Garvey fourth)
• 1982: Guerrero, Baker, Ken Landreaux (Garvey fifth)
• 1983: Garvey (in an injury-shortened season), Terry Kennedy, Tony Gwynn 
• 1984: Gwynn, Kevin McReynolds, Graig Nettles (Garvey fifth)
• 1985: Carmelo Martinez, Nettles, Gwynn (Garvey fourth)
• 1986: McReynolds, Gwynn, John Kruk (Garvey sixth)

There you go. There was not a single season in his career in which Garvey was the best hitter on his team, other than 1983, when he played only 100 games for a .500 club. Yet he won the MVP award in 1974, was sixth in 1976 (Cey was 23rd), sixth in 1977 (Smith was fourth, Baker got no votes), second in 1978 (Smith was fourth), and sixth in 1980 (Baker was fourth, Smith got no votes). 

That's the thing about Garvey: He had an outsized halo as a player. He had outstanding durability, but he was only solidly good, not great--not at his position, not on his team.

Oh, and those strikeout totals? Let's go back to that list of 31 first basemen with 2,500 or more plate appearances during Garvey's career. Garvey struck out in 10.4% of his plate appearances. That's quite decent, but it's only 11th among the 31 first basemen. Over his entire career (including appearances other than as a first baseman), he struck out in 10.6% of his plate appearances, which again, is very good, but not sensational, as the major league average those years was 13.7%. That trails, by a lot, a teammate of Garvey's on the 1982 Dodgers. That would be MLB Network Radio host Steve Sax, who struck out in only 7.7% of his plate appearances over a 14-year career.

The Dodgers' Right-Handed Hitters

The Dodgers last year had eight batters accumulate 350 or more plate appearances in 2014. Half of them batted left. Here are the four right-handed batters:

Pos	Name	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
OF	Yasiel Puig	23	148	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	11	7	67	124	.296	.382	.480	.863
OF	Matt Kemp	29	150	541	77	155	38	3	25	89	8	5	52	145	.287	.346	.506	.852
SS	Hanley Ramirez	30	128	449	64	127	35	0	13	71	14	5	56	84	.283	.369	.448	.817
3B	Juan Uribe	35	103	386	36	120	23	0	9	54	0	1	15	77	.311	.337	.440	.777

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 12/13/2014.

Two of them are no longer Dodgers. Hanley Ramirez, as I wrote, signed a free agent contract with the Red Sox. And this week, the Dodgers traded Matt Kemp to the Padres.

I thought there was a pretty stark difference of opinion regarding the two departures. Ramirez, a lot of folks seemed to feel, was not worth the four-year, $88 million contract that the Red Sox gave him. The departure of Kemp (along with backup catcher Tim Federowicz and $32 million to offset some of the $107 million due Kemp over the next five seasons) to San Diego (for catcher Yasmani Grandal, starting pitcher Joe Wieland, and minor league pitcher Zach Eflin) has been less well-received. That's partly because of the players the Dodgers got in return: Grandal, 26, is solid but not a star; Wieland, who turns 25 next month, has pitched only 39 innings in the majors; and Eflin, 20, is well-regarded but hasn't pitched above Class A. It's also partly because of Kemp's status as one of the Dodgers' stars. He was runner-up to Ryan Braun in the MVP race in 2011, and was arguably jobbed out of the award given Braun's later admission that he was using PEDs. Kemp hasn't approached his numbers from that season (39 HR, 115 R, 126 RBI, .399 on base percentage, .586 slugging percentage) before or since, but he was second on the Dodgers in doubles, home runs, and RBI last year, and led the club in slugging percentage.

I'm going to do a review of all the player moves over the past week or so in a separate post, but I wanted to focus here on the comparison to Ramirez. Those who weren't heartbroken to see Ramirez go to Boston focused on two aspects: Defense and durability. Ramirez was never a very good shortstop--the Red Sox are going to move him to left field--and he played only 214 of the Dodgers' 324 games in his two full seasons with the club, missing time due to a variety of injuries. 

Let's handle the second issue first, since it's easier to illustrate. Here are games played, by age, for Ramirez and Kemp over their careers:

Disregard Kemp's first couple years, when he spent a lot of his time in the minors. Do you see a whole lot of difference there? I don't. I see two extremely durable players through their mid-20s who started missing significant chunks of time thereafter. Does Kemp's 150 games played last year mean he's back to full-time status? Maybe, but maybe it's like Ramirez's 157 games played in 2012. I don't see enough here to convince me that the Padres have acquired a player who won't miss 30 or more games per year.

As for defense, both players grade out pretty badly using modern fielding metrics. Kemp's defenders will say that's nonsense; he's won two Gold Gloves! Or, as Torii Hunter said, regarding his poor defensive numbers, "whoever believes in that sabermetric stuff never played the game."

I should come up with a better term than "modern fielding metrics," because it sounds like a bunch of comp sci geeks coming up with an algorithm using all sorts of arcane numbers rather than "the eye test"--people actually watching the games. The thing is, the modern numbers to which I refer, which do have sort of esoteric names (Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved) aren't the product of differential calculus and quadratic equations. Rather, they're based on the most thorough eye test imaginable--baseball experts (scouts, coaches, former players) watching every single play to determine which plays are good and which ones aren't. This classic article, by Bill James comparing shortstops Derek Jeter and Adam Everett, explains it thoroughly. Key excerpt:

John’s [Dewan, who designed the Defensive Runs Saved measure] henchmen at Baseball Info Solutions [Dewan's company] had watched video from every major league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit (the vector) the type of hit (groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, mob hit, etc.) and by how hard the ball was hit (softly hit, medium, hard hit). Given every vector and every type of hit, they assigned a percentage probability that the ball would result in an out, and then they had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs.

So when somebody like me says that defensive metrics say that Kemp's a bad center fielder, what we mean is that guys who watch every single play have documented that Kemp doesn't make plays that other center fielders make. It's not a formula; it's basically the ultimate eye test. Kemp's numbers have been bad for years. So have Ramirez's. Why Kemp has a reputation for being good while Ramirez has one for being bad, I can't tell you. But I can tell you that one has a deserved reputation and the other doesn't.

So the reasons cited for why Dodger fans shouldn't feel bad that Hanley Ramirez left the team--Ramirez is a bad fielder who can't stay in the lineup--should really apply to Kemp as well. And while the Dodgers got nothing but a second-round Red Sox draft pick in return for Ramirez, the Dodgers got three active players for Kemp. Grandal ranked tenth in park-adjusted OPS among 33 catchers with 75 or more games caught.  Wieland struck out 36 and walked only six in 38.2 innings across three minor league levels this year as he came back from Tommy John surgery. Eflin's a 2012 first round draft pick. Kemp could contribute more to the Padres in 2015 than Grandal, Wieland, and Eflin will to the Dodgers, but that balance could easily shift in 2016 or soon thereafter.

Look, I'm not saying Kemp and Ramirez are equivalent. Kemp's a year younger, and I think his 150 games played in 2014 is more encouraging than Ramirez's 157 games played in 2012. Kemp should be an adequate fielder in left or right, while Ramirez is going to have a learn a new position in possibly the most idiosyncratic left field in baseball. But I don't see how one guy's departure is ho-hum and the other's a disaster. I'd put them both more in the middle.

The Most Hopeless Teams of 2014

From the 2015 Bill James Handbook: Teams that didn't spend a single day in first place in 2014

• Astros
• Cubs
• Diamondbacks
• Mets
• Reds
• Rockies
• Twins

If we also include teams that didn't ever have first place to themselves (the best they could do was tie for first), add the Indians, Padres, Phillies, and White Sox.

Not that that's necessarily a measure of hopelessness, though it pretty much was for the teams in question: Cleveland finished three games behind Oakland for the second American League wild card.

Speaking of Oakland, here are the teams that spent the most days in first place:

• Tigers, 153 days: Lost Divisional Series 
• Brewers, 150 days: Missed the postseason, six games behind the second wild card
• Athletics, 129 days: Lost Wild Card

On The Mound, Jake Peavy

Tonight the San Francisco Giants will seek to match the Kansas City Royals: Wild card team, winning on the road to take a 2-0 lead in their Championship Series. Here is a list of teams that have lost the first two home games of a seven-game Championship Series (it was a best-of-five series from 1969 to 1984) that have gone on to win:


That's right, none. If the Orioles come back against the Royals, they'll be the first team to have accomplished it. The Giants are trying to put the Cardinals into the same situation.

Pitching for the Giants will be Jake Peavy, whom they acquired from the Red Sox for two minor leaguers on July 26. His performance before and after the trade has been an interesting contrast:

Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	WHIP
BOS	AL	1	9	4.72	20	20	124.0	131	67	65	20	46	1	100	1.427
SFG	NL	6	4	2.17	12	12	78.2	65	24	19	3	17	1	58	1.042

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/12/2014.

Adjusted for league and ballpark, his ERA was 18% worse than the AL average with Boston, 61% better than the NL average with San Francisco.

Here's his breakdown against the Cardinals:

	Opponent	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	WHIP
	St. Louis Cardinals	3	4	2.97	9	9	57.2	50	24	19	9	18	0	61	1.179
	Everyone Else	136	107	3.54	329	326	2090.0	1851	866	824	220	629	40	1966	1.187
	St. Louis - Postseason	0	2	10.13	3	3	13.1	25	15	15	3	5	2	9	2.250

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 10/12/2014.

I imagine people are going to make a big deal about that postseason record against the Cardinals. I'd ignore it for three reasons. First, three games are not enough to draw a conclusion about anything. Second, his regular season record against the Cardinals--which is still not large enough to be meaningful--indicates no particular problem, and it was all compiled before he was traded from the National League to the American in 2009. At that point, the Cardinals had, if I counted correctly, only two batters who are still with the team today (catcher Yadier Molina and left fielder Matt Holliday), so the prior record's not really all that relevant. Third, two of those postseason games occurred in 2005 and 2006 when Peavy was a young pitcher with the Padres. He's not the same pitcher today at 33, when he ranked 51 of 88 ERA qualifiers with 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, that he was back then at 24 and 25, when he led the league with 9.6. 

He did look decent against Washington in the Divisional Series opener, giving up no runs in 5.2 innings, though he struck out only three and walked the same number, running his pitch count up to 104 and getting strikes on only 60% of his pitches (the league average was 64%). So I'd disregard his line from those three games against the Cardinals--two from long ago--but at the same time assume a busier evening for the Giants bullpen than last night, when Madison Bumgarner lasted until there were two outs in the eighth.