Latest from Banished to the Pen

Here are the top and bottom five performers for the 30 days ending Sunday, June 26, featuring the strangely alluring second-worst OPS hitters in each league.

I did a National League Central podcast with Alex Crisafulli (@alexcards79) and Eric Roseberry (@Ericdroseberry) last night. It's here. 

Schedules

Baseball has a pretty balanced schedule. It's not like the NFL, where some teams meet and some don't, creating easier or tougher schedules for teams. In MLB, each team plays its divisional opponents 19 times (a total of 76 games), 33 games against each of the other two divisions in its league (66 games), and 20 interleague games. But there are subtle differences. Let's analyze them for the Pirates and their two key National League Central rivals, the Cubs and the Cardinals.

Intradivisional games. Each team plays the other teams in the division 19 times, either ten home games and nine away or nine home and ten away. Since, in baseball, the home team wins about 54% of the time, more home games are an advantage. Here's the rundown:

• Brewers: The Cubs and Cardinals are home for ten, the Pirates for nine. Advantage Cubs and Cardinals.
• Reds: The Cardinals and Pirates are home for ten, the Cubs for nine. Advantage Cardinals and Pirates.
• Cubs-Cardinals: The Cubs are home for ten. Advantage Cubs.
• Cubs-Pirates: The Pirates are home for ten. Advantage Pirates.
• Cardinals-Pirates: The Cardinals are home for ten. Advantage Cardinals.

Intraleague games. These are unbalanced two ways. A team may play an opponent six or seven times, and if seven, either three or four will be home games. There are five teams in each the National League East and the National League West. In general, you'd rather play weak teams than good teams and, beyond that, rather be at home than away. Here are the ten opponents, starting in the East:

• Braves: Six games for the Cubs and Cardinals, seven for the Pirates. The Braves are a weak team. Advantage Pirates.
• Marlins: Each team plays seven games against Miami, three of them at home. No advantage.
• Mets: Six games for the Cardinals and Pirates, seven for the Cubs. The Mets are a good team. Advantage Cardinals and Pirates.
• Nationals: Six games for the Pirates, seven for the Cubs (four at home) and Cardinals (three at home). Advantage Pirates, then Cubs.
• Phillies: Six games for the Cubs, seven the Cardinals (four at home) and Pirates (three at home). The Phillies are a weak team. Advantage Cardinals, then Pirates.
• Diamondbacks: Six games for the Pirates, seven for the Cubs and Cardinals (three at home). The Diamondbacks are a decent team. Advantage Pirates.
• Dodgers: Six games for the Cardinals, seven for the Cubs and Pirates (four at home). The Dodgers are a good team. Advantage Cardinals.
• Giants: Seven games for all three teams, but only the Cardinals have only three games at home. Advantage Cubs and Pirates.
• Padres: Six games for the Cubs and Pirates, seven for the Cardinals. The Padres are a weak team. Advantage Cardinals.
• Rockies: Six games for the Cubs and Cardinals, seven for the Pirates. The Rockies are a weak team. Advantage Pirates.

Interleague: Every year a division plays one division in the other league. This year, the National League Central plays the American League West. There are both four-game series (two at home, two on the road) and three-game series (all either home or away) against interleague opponents. There are also four games (two home, two away) against a "traditional" opponent.

• Angels: Four for the Cubs, three at home for the Pirates, three away for St. Louis. The Angels are a mediocre team, so being at home is advantageous. Advantage Pirates, then Cubs.
• Astros: Four for the Cardinals, three at home for the Pirates, three away for St. Louis. The Astros are a good team, so the fewer games against them, the better. Advantage Pirates, then Cardinals.
• Athletics: Three at home for the Cardinals, three on the road for the Cubs and Pirates. Advantage Cardinals.
• Mariners: Four for the Pirates, three at home for the Cubs, three away for the Cardinals. I expect the Mariners to be a good team, so the fewer games, the better. Advantage Cubs, then Cardinals.
• Rangers: Three at home for the Cubs and Cardinals, three away for the Pirates. Advantage Cubs and Cardinals.
• Traditional: The Cardinals play the defending World Series champion Royals. The Cubs play their crosstown rivals, the White Sox, while the Pirates play the Tigers, apparently because some people still haven't gotten over the 1909 World Series. The Royals are the better team. Advantage Cubs and Pirates. 

Assigning each team one point for an advantage and half a point for a secondary ('then") advantage, I get 11.5 points for Pittsburgh, 10 for St. Louis, and 7 for Chicago. These advantages are pretty small and, in several cases, speculative. so I wouldn't put much weight into them. However, I'd say at this point that the 2016 confers a slight advantage for the Pirates over its two key foes.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Division Series Round

Well, that was clever. Wrote the previews, then forget to publish them. These are a day old. Sorry.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas vs. Toronto: This series is viewed as the most lopsided among the Division Series, with Toronto heavily favored. I agree. Texas' big trading deadline acquisition, lefthanded starter Cole Hamels, will start in the second game on Friday and, if necessary, in the fifth game on Wednesday. However, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League against lefties. They scored the most runs in the league (5.7 per game; the Rangers were a distant second at 5.1) and gave up the fewest (3.7; the Rangers were eighth at 4.6). I could see the Blue Jays sweeping this one. [Note: I wrote this before the Rangers won last night's game, 5-3. I still think the Jays will win the series. I'm assuming third baseman Josh Donaldson and right fielder Jose Bautista, who left Thursday's game with injuries, are healthy.] For a more comprehensive look at this series, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Barry Gilpin's preview here.

Houston vs. Kansas City: Another series with a clear favorite, as the Astros fell out of the American League West lead late in the season and struggled to qualify as a wild card, while the Royals had the best record in the American League. However, the Astros overall played better ball than their record indicated, based on the underlying statistics, while the Royals won five more games than their run production would predict. These two teams are a stark contrast: Houston hits home runs and strikes out in bunches, Kansas City batters led the league in contact and had the lowest strikeout rate, by far. Kansas City had a surprisingly weak rotation and a shutdown bullpen; Houston's rotation was solid, anchored by likely Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, and a bullpen that looked gassed down the stretch. I'm favoring the Royals in five because the Astros will get only one game from Keuchel and because the Royals pitchers were very effective against fly ball hitters, and no team hit a larger proportion of fly balls than the Astros. [Note: I wrote this before the Astros won last night's game, 5-2. I'm not feeling good about that prediction; if the Royals don't win today, it's going to be a real struggle for them.] For a more comprehensive look at the series, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Cardinals had the best record in baseball, but the Cubs had the third best. Like the Astros, the Cubs have a Cy Young candidate, Jake Arrieta, who was used in the wild card game and will thus be available in only Game 3 of this series. Unlike the Astros, who faded in the stretch, the Cubs had the best record in the National League in the second half of the year, scoring the second must runs in the league and allowing the third fewest since the All-Star break. The Cardinals are relying on a number of players coming off injuries who may or may not be at their best: catcher Yadier Molina, pitcher Adam Wainwright (who'll be available only out of the bullpen), and outfielders Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, and Stephen Piscotty. Pitcher Carlos Martinez is out with a shoulder injury and first baseman Matt Adams, recovering from a leg injury, is not on the Division Series roster. I pick the Cubs in four games. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

New York vs. Los Angeles: It's hard to imagine a New York vs. Los Angeles series not getting top billing, but the longtime Chicago/St. Louis rivalry and the Cubs' history (107 years since their last World Series championship) may take center stage. The story of this series will be pitching: the Mets' young guns vs. the Dodgers' two Cy Young contenders, lefty Clayton Kershaw and righty Zack Greinke. (The secondary story will be the Madoff-scammed financially constrained Mets vs. the more-money-than-God Dodgers.) Both teams had surprisingly good offenses (the Dodgers were seventh in scoring and the Mets eighth despite both playing in pitcher-friendly parks) and strong closers with OK-not-great middle relief. I'm taking the Dodgers in five games, as the Mets' record was juiced by playing in the very weak National League East (the club was 43-43 outside of their home division) while the Dodgers bullpen, a perennial weakness that helped torpedo their last playoff appearances, seemed to have found its footing after the All-Star break. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Darius Austin's very thorough preview here.

Wow, Tough Loss. Now, Please Don't Bounce Back. Give Up.

The Pirates lost to the Cardinals, 3-0, yesterday. It was a tough, tough, loss, as the Pirates had multiple scoring opportunities--they loaded the bases in four different innings--but were unable to push a run across the plate. In all, they left 16 runners on base. That's the most in a nine-inning game in the majors this season, and the most in the majors since the Pirates stranded 16 in a 10-3 win against the Padres in June last year. For Pirates fans, it was reminiscent of the team's early struggles, when it got runners on base but failed to score. 

The National League Central standings are now:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  99 58 .631  --
Pittsburgh 95 62 .605   4
Chicago    91 65 .583 7.5

The Cardinals and Pirates have five more games to play. The Cubs have six.

• If the Cardinals win two of their last five games--they finish their season this weekend in Atlanta, playing the team with the second-worst record in the majors--they'll clinch the division, regardless of what the Pirates do. 
• If the Cards win just one of their next five, the Pirates will have to win every game remaining this year (two against St. Louis, three against Cincinnati) in order to play a one-game playoff on Monday to determine the division champion. The loser of that game will host the Cubs next Wednesday for the wild card play-in.
• If the Cards go 0-5 for the rest of the season and Pirates win every remaining game, the Pirates will win the Central and skip the Wild Card game. If the Cardinals go 0-5 and the Pirates go 4-1, the teams will tie and play on Monday.

Put another way: For the Pirates to win the division outright, they'll have to go 5-0 and the Cardinals 0-5 the rest of the season. That means the Pirates will have to win the next two days against St. Louis and sweep the season-ending series at home against the Reds, who are 10-6 against Pittsburgh this year. It means the Cardinals will have to drop both games against the Pirates and lose three straight on the road against an Atlanta team that hasn't won three straight against a team with a winning record since June and has easily the worst record in the majors since the All-Star Break. For the Pirates to host the Cardinals Monday to determine the championship, they still have to win both of the remaining St. Louis games, and they can lose one game to the Reds or the Cardinals can win one game against the Braves. They go 5-0 and the Cardinals 1-4, or they go 4-1 and the Cardinals 0-5.

Anything is possible. But the scenarios I described are highly, highly unlikely. They're sufficiently unlikely that we can safely say they're not going to happen.

How about the Cubs, though? Are the Pirates at risk of losing home field advantage in the wild card game next Wednesday? The Cubs will be the home field team if they finish with a better overall record than the Pirates or if the teams are tied, as the first tiebreaker for determining home field advantage is head-to-head record. The Cubs won the season series against Pittsburgh, 11-8. So in order for the Pirates to play the wild card game at home, they need to finish ahead of the Cubs. The Cubs start a three-game series against the Reds tonight and have a three-game set against the Brewers this weekend, all on the road.

• If the Cubs sweep both series, the Pirates will still finish ahead of them in the standings if they go 3-2.
• If the Cubs go 5-1, the Pirates will need to go 2-3.
• If the Cubs go 4-2, the Pirates will need to win just one game.
• If the Cubs don't win four of their remaining six, the Pirates will host the wild card game regardless of what they do in their remaining games. 

Both the Brewers and Reds have been playing pretty bad ball of late. Over the past couple weeks, the Reds have the worst record in baseball, 3-10, and the Brewers are tied for the third worst, 4-9. The Cubs have beaten up on both teams this year, going 11-5 against Milwaukee and 10-6 against Cincinnati. Still, winning all six games is going to be hard, particularly since only one will be started by the unstoppable Jake Arrieta. So let's say the Cubs go 5-1. If the Pirates lose tonight, the Cardinals will clinch the division. It's not hard to see the Pirates winning Wednesday's Gerrit Cole-Tyler Lyons mismatch against a hung over Cardinals team. Then they have to take just one of three over the weekend, against a Reds team that's playing out the string, in order to stay ahead of the Cubs. 

So my hope for the Pirates is that, since winning the division is now effectively out of reach, they lose tonight and start giving players days off. They've played 29 games in the last 30 days. Neil Walker's had one day off. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte have had two. Jordy Mercer and Gregory Polanco have missed only four. Francisco Cervelli has caught all but six games. Five relievers have appeared in twelve or more games. Give them some time off. Let the bruises heal and sore muscles recover. Let them sleep in and sharpen their mental edge. Accept the inevitability of losing the division title and accept the likelihood of hosting the wild card game. The Cubs will start Arrieta. The Pirates will need all the advantage they can get.

Next Up: Last Chance to Win the National League Central

Top of the National League Central, morning of September 28, one week left in the season:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  98 58 .628  --
Pittsburgh 95 61 .609   3
Chicago    90 65 .581 7.5

I think we can be fairly confident in saying two things:

1. By taking two of three against the Cubs over the weekend, the Pirates have probably wrapped up home field for the wild card play-in.
2. If the Pirates are going to catch the Cardinals--who finish their season against the execrable Atlanta Braves, while the Pirates play the almost-as-execrable Cincinnati Reds who nonethless have a 10-6 record against Pittsburgh--they need to sweep the next three games at home against St. Louis.

I'd forgotten about this, but do you know how the baseball tiebreaker rules could hose the Cardinals and Pirates? In the NFL, there are all sorts of convoluted measures (won-lost within the division and conference, point differential, net touchdowns, among others) that determine the seeding if two teams finish with identical records. In baseball, they just play another game. Let's say the Pirates sweep St. Louis and then each team wins two of three this weekend. They'd be tied for first with identical 100-62 records. They would then be required to play a game in Pittsburgh next Monday to determine the division champion, with the loser hosting the Cubs on Wednesday for the wild card game. That would put the losing team, which would be the team that currently has the best or second-best record in baseball, at a significant disadvantage, as they would be playing full-bore baseball, not resting regular hitters or pitchers, for seven straight games. The Cubs could rest regulars and would have a day off on Monday.

(One thing a tie wouldn't do is mess up the teams' rotations as it did last year, when the Pirates burned Gerrit Cole in the last game of the season in a vain attempt to catch the Cardinals, leaving Edinson Volquez to get lit up in the wild card game (five runs allowed in five innings) against 2014 postseason force of nature Madison Bumgarner. This year, if the teams are tied and they have to play a game Monday, it looks to me as if the Pirates would go with Cole (18-8, 2.60 ERA) on Monday and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.27 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs Wednesday. The Cardinals would go with Michael Wacha (17-6, 3.15 ERA) on Monday and Jaime Garcia (10-5, 2.36 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs. All four are better options than Volquez was, in my opinion.) 

Speaking of the Cubs, last night's game emphasized the risk of facing Chicago for a one-game play-in. Here are a couple tables.

LOWEST ERA ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	ERA	W	L	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	0.80	11	1	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	.422	16
Kris Medlen	2012	19	0.94	9	0	12	2	1	95.1	64	12	10	5	14	95	0.818	.484	34
Roger Clemens	1990	12	0.97	9	2	12	5	4	92.2	79	12	10	0	19	89	1.058	.562	61
Tom Seaver	1971	16	1.10	10	4	16	12	2	139.1	83	20	17	6	30	143	0.811	.478	42
Spud Chandler	1943	14	1.12	10	2	14	11	2	121.0	90	23	15	1	20	65	0.909	.476	46
Bob Gibson	1968	16	1.19	11	4	16	14	7	144.0	97	25	19	6	27	150	0.861	.480	50
Johan Santana	2004	15	1.21	13	0	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	.443	18
Larry Gura	1981	11	1.25	7	3	11	7	1	86.2	59	17	12	3	17	27	0.877	.507	48
Dean Chance	1964	23	1.29	15	4	20	12	8	167.0	112	28	24	4	50	123	0.970	.490	44
Gary Peters	1966	12	1.29	7	3	12	7	2	97.2	67	16	14	4	13	58	0.819	.500	46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.
(OPS+ is OPS adjusted for park and season, with an average value of 100. Arrieta's OPS+ of 16 means that hitters have fared 84% worse than average against him.)

LOWEST OPS ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	OPS	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	.422	11	1	0.80	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	16
Hoyt Wilhelm	1965	35	.442	6	2	1.33	0	0	0	81.0	41	15	12	5	17	62	0.716	31
Johan Santana	2004	15	.443	13	0	1.21	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	18
Nolan Ryan	1986	13	.444	6	2	2.27	13	0	0	83.1	40	23	21	4	34	100	0.888	26
Clayton Kershaw	2015	13	.453	9	1	1.48	13	2	1	97.0	61	17	16	4	14	121	0.773	24
Joe Horlen	1964	18	.456	7	4	1.56	17	6	1	126.2	71	28	22	5	40	89	0.876	34
Pedro Martinez	2000	15	.458	9	3	2.03	15	4	2	111.0	66	25	25	8	12	144	0.703	19
Sandy Koufax	1965	22	.459	11	5	1.94	20	13	6	166.2	92	39	36	12	37	187	0.774	36
Don Wilson	1971	15	.466	10	4	1.43	15	11	1	126.0	72	27	20	7	35	88	0.849	39
Nolan Ryan	1972	17	.468	8	8	1.41	17	10	4	140.2	74	29	22	2	75	173	1.059	43

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.

The Cubs' Jake Arrieta, who will undoubtedly pitch in the wild card game, is basically having the best second half in baseball history, at least since the All-Star game began in 1933.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Cardinals are 16-12 over the past 30 days, tying them with the Dodgers for the fifth best record in the league, a half game behind the 17-12 Pirates and a game behind the 17-11 Cubs. They've scored 4.3 runs per game during the period, the fifth fewest in the league (the Pirates, at 4.7, are seventh in scoring) and they've given up 4.4 per game, the seventh fewest (the Pirates are second at 4.0). Yes, that means the Cardinals have managed to maintain the fifth-best record in the National League over the past 30 days despite being outscored, 122-120. Lucky? Yeah, a little, though the Dodgers, with an identical 16-12 record, have scored only one more run than they've allowed.

When the Pirates last played the Cardinals, at the beginning of the month, I wrote:

Their 2.67 ERA to date is the lowest in a non-strike-shortened year since the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, and they're on pace to win 105 games, which would be the most in the majors since the same franchise won 105 in 2004.

They've slowed down some. The team ERA is now 2.91, now "only" second in a non-strike post-1968 season, trailing the 1969 Orioles (2.83) and barely ahead of the 1988 Mets (2.908; the Cards are at 2.907). And they're on pace to win 102, not 105. They're a little banged up, with starting catcher Yadier Molina out with a thumb injury and starting pitcher Carlos Martinez done for the season with shoulder stiffness, but they've gotten other injured players (left fielder Matt Holliday, first baseman Matt Adams, center fielder Randal Grichuk) back from the disabled list this month.

What's Going Right? Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.86 over the past 30 days, fifth lowest in the league. Only by the standards of the team's full-year performance can that be considered a disappointment, and they've led the league in inducing ground balls. The Cardinals hitters have been middle-of-the-pack over the past 30 days in terms of batting average (.264, eighth in the league) and slugging percentage .425, sixth), but they're third in on base percentage (.339), with the fifth highest walk rate in the league. They have 32 infield hits over the past month, easily the most in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The Cardinals batters strike out a lot (fourth highest rate in the league over the past 30 days) and they've been pretty inept basestealers (seven stolen, six caught stealing). They've hit 26 homers, tied with the Pirates for the sixth fewest. The bullpen's had a 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth highest in the league, though it's 3.97 without yesterday's ninth inning, when Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness allowed seven runs to the Brewers, coughing up a 3-1 lead and ending the team's home season on a sour note. The relievers have struck out 28% of the batters they've faced over the past 30 days, the most in the league, but they've allowed homers on 16% of fly balls, second highest in the league and given up the lowest rate of soft contact in the league. 

Who's Hot? The loss of Martinez stings, as he'd pitched better than his 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days would indicate, with the second-highest strikeout rate on the team. With him out, the Cardinals' top two starters of late have been Jaime Garcia  and John Lackey, both of whom the Pirates will miss. The offense has been carried by three players. Third baseman Matt Carpenter is leading the club over the past 30 days with a .304 batting average, .643 slugging percentage (fifth in the league) and eight home runs (tied for sixth); he's also compiled an excellent .376 on base percentage, resulting in a 1.019 OPS (fifth). Right fielder Jason Heyward's .405 on base percentage is twelfth in the league over the past 30 days and he's batting .303 with a .424 slugging percentage. Rookie Stephen Piscotty has played first, left, and right while generating a .302/.378/.462 slash line. In more limited play, another rookie, Tommy Pham, has hit .317/.364/.650, primarily in center but also in left.

Who's Not? None of the three starters the Pirates will face have fared very well over the past 30 days. Tonight's starter, Lance Lynn, has a 4.38 ERA and has walked as many batters as he's struck out, and Tuesday's starter, Michael Wacha, has a 6.75 ERA with 14 walks and five homers allowed over his last 20 innings. Wednesday's start goes to lefty Tyler Lyons, making his first start since September 2. He was a spot starter in three stints with the club prior to the All-Star break, compiling a 5.02 ERA. Since returning to St. Louis for a couple weeks August and when rosters expanded in September, he's got a 2.53 ERA in 21.1 innings, with a good 18:3 strikeout:walk ratio and a not-so-good five home runs allowed. On offense, the team's gotten little production over the past 30 days from shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.244 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .302 slugging percentage--by contrast, Jordy Mercer, having a tough year with the bat, is hitting .262/.323/.369 over the past 30 days) and none from catcher, where Molina and Tony Cruz have combined for a .206/.268/.265 slash line. 

What's the Outlook? In a way, if the Pirates don't sweep the Cardinals, I hope they drop two of three. As long as the Cubs don't play out of their minds, that would cement the home field wild card game for Pittsburgh--no chance of catching the Cards, no chance of getting caught by the Cubs--and allow them to give a lot of players some rest. But sweeping the Cardinals, yeah, that'd be fun. Series sweeps are pretty unlikely, and I don't think we'll see one here, but this is not the invulnerable Cardinals team we saw earlier in the season. There are chinks in their armor.