Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

First one of these of the season! Let's get right into it.

How Are They Doing Lately? They dropped two straight to the Padres. The Cubs suck.

OK, just kidding. Put it this way: The Pirates are tied for the tenth best record in baseball and the fifth best record in the National League. They are second in their division. But the trail the first place team in their division, the Cubs, by seven games. In the National League East, the fourth-place Marlins are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the National League West, the last-place Padres are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the American League East, the last-place Yankees are as close to first as the Pirates are. In the American League Central, the fourth-place Tigers are only half a game further from first than the Pirates are. In the American League West, the last-place Angels are only a game farther from first than the Pirates are.

The Cubs have the best record in baseball. They're scored the most runs per game. They've given up the fewest. They've scored, on average, three more runs per game than their opponents--no other team's outscored by more than 1.7--and, based on their run differential, they should be a game better than their 25-8 record. They've been really, really good. Don't take my word for it - Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs concur. And, of course, the Cubs swept three games at PNC Park a week and a half ago by a combined score of 20-5.

What's Going Right? Over the past 30 days, they're sixth in the league with a .263 batting average and .430 slugging percentage but first in on base percentage at .367. They've walked in 13% of plate appearances, by far the most in the league, and struck out in only 19%, the fourth lowest. They're last in the league at generating ground balls and swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. They're disciplined and good. On the mound, over the last 30 days, their starters' ERA of 2.06 is the best in the league by far, and the starters have the league's fourth highest strikeout rate, third highest ground ball rate, third highest rate of soft contact allowed, and the lowest rate of both hard contact and home runs as a percentage of fly balls. They've been a little lucky, allowing an unsustainably low .256 batting average on balls in play and an unsustainably high 82% of baserunners left stranded, but even with average figures, they'd be good.

What's Going Wrong? When the starters are going as well as the Cubs' have, there's a limited need to go to the bullpen--Cubs relievers have pitched the fewest innings in the league over the past 30 days--but Chicago's bullpen's been mortal, with a 4.20 ERA, sixth highest in the league, hurt by a high walk rate (13%, highest in the league) and too many fly balls leaving the park (18%, third highest). Cubs relievers have only five saves over the past 30 days, tied for the second fewest in the league, but that's more a reflection of the team's margin of victory, which doesn't create save opportunities.

Who's Hot? Oh, everybody, more or less. The team's getting above-average offensive performance from all four infield positions and left and center field. Three of the five starting pitchers have an ERA below 2.00 over the last 30 days (the Pirates will face all three) and the other two, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks, are at 2.76 and 3.10, respectively. Closer Hector Rondon has been pretty untouchable over the past 30 days, allowing four hits, one run and no walks while striking out fourteen over ten innings.  

Who's Not? Over the last 30 days, backup catcher David Ross, pressed into service by an injury to Miguel Montero, is hitting .179/.300/.359, but with very strong defense. The biggest bust has been free agent signee Jason Heyward, batting .205/.307/.250 and still looking for his first home run of the year. The relievers other than Rondon has had either a high ERA or peripherals (high walk and/or home run rates) that suggest that their ERAs should be higher.

What's the Outlook? In the Cubs series of May 2-4, the Pirates never led, not even for an inning, as they were mowed down by the Cubs' bats and starters Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, and Jon Lester. This time, they travel to Chicago, and they'll face...Hammel, Arrieta, and Lester. Am I expecting another sweep? No, but I'm not optimistic. The Cubs are good.

A Wild Card Game of Inches

This postseason has had no shortage of stories: Utley's slide, Gibbons leaving in Cecil to pitch to Napoli, the Royals' singles vs. the Astros' homers, Price in long relief in a blowout, Molina's thumb...yet to Pirates fans, we're on the outside looking in. We're still stuck on Jake Arrieta's shutout last Wednesday in the wild card game. During last night's Cubs-Cardinals game, a lot of Pirates followers must've said, as my wife did, while watching Arrieta surrender four runs on five hits and two walks in five and two-thirds innings, "Why couldn't he have pitched that way against the Pirates?" After all, he was unhittable against the Bucs: Complete game shutout, five hits and no walks, eleven strikeouts. The Pirates didn't have a chance.

Except...they sort of did. This article by Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is the best post-mortem I've read of the wild card game. It's not long, and it's a good read, but if you want to skip it, Cameron's point is that the Pirates did have a chance against Arrieta. In the sixth inning, Arrieta hit third baseman Josh Harrison. Sandwiched around Harrison's stroll to first, four Pirates batters absolutely smoked four batted balls. Each left their bats traveling over 100 miles per hour. Balls hit that hard are usually base hits, often for extra bases. But instead, the Pirates got:

• Pinch hitter Travis Snider, single
• Right fielder Gregory Polanco, lineout
• Center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reached on error, runners advanced one base
• Left fielder Starling Marte, grounded into double play

Now, this wasn't all bad luck on the Pirates' part. Every one of the batted balls was hit on the ground or on a line drive. None of them were hit in the air, where they would've had a good chance of landing in the outfield for extra bases, or over the fence, and that's due at least in part to Arrieta's skill as a pitcher. But other than Snider, every one of the Pirates' screaming hits went right to a Cubs infielder--Polanco to third baseman Kris Bryant, who made a juggling catch on the fly, and McCutchen and Marte to shortstop Addison Russell, who couldn't handle McCutchen's shot but turned Marte's into an inning-ending twin killing. Let's say those balls were hit just a couple inches to the left or right of where they were. Snider singles up the middle. Polanco's rocket goes down the left field line, resulting in a double, runners on second and third. Harrison's hit, loading the bases. McCutchen singles to center, runners advancing a base, and Marte does the same. Now it's a 4-2 game with one out and the bases loaded. Or maybe Harrison scores on Marte's single, making it 4-3. One out, Cervelli and Walker due up. It would've been a different ballgame, and it turned on a four balls that were nailed, going right into fielders' gloves, instead of just out of their reach. 

Fast Thoughts on Another Early Exit

Russell Martin led off the seventh inning on October 1, 2013 by hitting a home run on a full count against Cincinnati Reds reliever Logan Ondrusek. Do you remember the play? Me neither. But it was the last run scored by the Pirates in a wild card game. Since Martin's blast, the Pirates have gotten nine singles and one walk and no runs in 21 innings of wild card baseball.

• I wish I'd have been wrong about my predication, but Jake Arrieta really is unstoppable. I think the Pirates would have had a shot if the wild card game were a series, but one game against Arrieta is unfair for anyone.
• Yes, Arrieta could have defused the situation that precipitated the bench-clearing incident in the seventh by just taking his base, but come on, Tony Watson was totally in the wrong by hitting him with a pitch. Yes, Arrieta's pitch that sailed near Francisco Cervelli's head was scary. But does anyone really think it was anything other than an accident? This macho "gotta protect my teammates" nonsense is what put Andrew McCutchen on the disabled list a year ago. I've said it before: Someday, baseball is going to have another Ray Chapman moment, and it's going to make all this eye-for-an-eye retaliation crap involving throwing hard objects at 90+ mph seem really, really irresponsible and stupid.
• You hear a lot about the importance of games in September during the pennant drive. Well, the baseball season's 162 games long, and each game's important. As I pointed out on Sunday, the Pirates would have won the division had they played as well against the Brewers and Reds as did everybody else. The Pirates opened the season by dropping three straight in Cincinnati. They lost three in a row in Milwaukee right after the All-Star break. Had either of those April or July series been reversed, the Pirates would be secretly happy that they'd have to face Arrieta only once in the Divisional Series against the Cubs, which would open Friday night at PNC Park. Every game matters.
• We've got the whole offseason to think about this, but the Pirates have some decisions to make. Aramis Ramirez and A.J. Burnett are retiring. J.A. Happ, Joakim Soria, Antonio Bastardo, and Sean Rodriguez will be free agents. Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Melancon, Chris Stewart, and Cervelli are entering their final year of arbitration after decent to very good seasons, meaning they're going to cost the Pirates a lot more money and will be eligible for free agency after next season. Other arbitration-eligible players include Watson, Jared Hughes, Jordy Mercer, and Jeff Locke. Economics may force roster changes.
• Pirates won't be winning any awards this year. McCutchen will probably be in the top five, maybe the top three, for MVP, but Washington's Bryce Harper locked that down months ago. Gerrit Cole had a great season, but Arrieta and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke were on a higher plane than anybody and will split the Cy Young vote. Jung Ho Kang was not going to win the Rookie of the Year even before he got hurt--the Cubs' Kris Bryant will get it--but he ought to be in the top three. Clint Hurdle managed the Pirates to the third most wins in franchise history, but the Mets' Terry Collins and the Cubs' Joe Maddon guided perennial losing teams to the postseason; Maddon looks to be Manager of the Year.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Wild Card Round

We'll do this one playoff round at a time. As Gregg Easterbrook would say (before he signed with the NY Times and became much more boring), All Predictions Wrong or Your Money Back.

American League Wild Card Game: Astros at Yankees. It's pretty ridiculous to try to predict the result of a short series. Say there are two teams, A, and B. They play 100 games against each other. A wins 60, B wins 40. In terms of won-lost percentage, that's roughly the Pirates playing the Braves. If you do the math, you'll see that the inferior team take a seven-game series 29% of the time. It'll win a best-of-five series 32% of the time. And, of course, it'll win one game 40% of the time. For closely-matched teams, the difference is negligible. And that's over five or seven games. The fewer games, the greater the variance. A one-game play-in? That's why Joe Sheehan calls the wild card the "coin flip game."

Anyway, the American League Wild Card game will have the Yankees hosting the Astros. Neither have exactly covered themselves in glory of late, as the Yankees lost six of their last seven games, going 10-16 since September 7. The Astros are 13-17 since the end of August. Both teams were in first place, the Astros as recently as September 14 and the Yankees on August 24, before losing their leads. But, as Rob Neyer recently pointed out, there is little evidence that performance at the end of the year has a bearing on postseason performance, and I found the same last year. So let's look at Tuesday's game without the baggage of recent play.

When you consider a postseason series, you evaluate each team's pitching, hitting, and defense as a whole. In a one-game play-in, though, one player--the starting pitcher--plays an outsized role. Last year, the Giants eliminated the Pirates because Giants starter Madison Bumgarner had a very good game (four hit, ten strikeout complete game shutout) and Pirates starter Edinson Volquez didn't (five runs allowed in five innings). That's not always the case--last year's crazy Royals-Athletics wild card game came down to bullpens and baserunning--but in one game, one starting pitcher can dictate the outcome.

The Yankees will go with Masahiro Tanaka. He got lit up (six runs in five innings) in his one career start against the Astros, on June 27 against in Houston, but you can't draw any conclusions from one start. He has the lowest ERA in the team's rotation (3.51; rookie Luis Severino's is 2.89 only 62 innings). He had a 3.22 ERA in April, was shut down in May, 4.35 in June, 3.67 in July, 3.18 in August, and 3.06 in September, during which he sandwiched three very strong starts (21 strikeouts, one walk, 15 hits in 21 innings, 1.29 ERA) around two bad ones (eight strikeouts, two walks, 11 hits in 11.1 innings, 6.35 ERA). One worrisome trait: He allowed 1.46 home runs per nine innings, the fourth highest rate in the league for pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched, which isn't ideal against an Astros team that hit 230 home runs this year, second only to the Blue Jays' 232.

The Astros are going to start Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel had a fantastic season. He led the American League in wins (20), WHIP (1.017), innings (232), and ERA adjusted for home park (62% better than average). He was second in ERA (2.48), home runs per nine innings (0.7), and hits allowed per nine innings (7.2). He was fifth in strikeout/walk ratio, tied for fifth in strikeout (216), and tenth in strikeouts per nine innings (8.4). He'll probably win the Cy Young Award, and if he doesn't, he'll almost certainly finish second. On paper, Tanaka can't compare to him. But there are two problems with Keuchel against the Yankees:

• He had a crazy home/road split: 15-0, 1.46 ERA, .474 OPS allowed at home; 5-8, 3.77 ERA, .698 OPS allowed on the road. He'll be pitching on the road. (In fairness, his one start this year at Yankee Stadium was fantastic: seven innings, three hits, no walks, no runs, nine strikeouts.)
• He pitched six innings, throwing 99 pitches in Friday's 21-5 Houston victory over Arizona. That means he'll start Tuesday's game on three days rest. He's never done that as a starter. This article, by FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan, explains that the history of starters pitching on short rest in the postseason is not good.

If Keuchel falters, Houston's game will be in the hands of its relievers. The Astros have a better bullpen ERA, but that's misleading. New York has two of the best relievers in baseball, Dellin Betances (1.50 ERA, struck out 39% of the batters he faced) and Andrew Miller (1.90 ERA, struck out 41% of the batters he faced). In a close game, those two, and perhaps former Pirate Justin Wilson (3.10 ERA) are all that opponents will face. The rest of the bullpen's 4.72 ERA shouldn't be a factor in a close game. The Astros, whose 3.27 bullpen ERA was better than the Yankees' 3.70, have more evenly distributed quality arms but don't have anyone to match the Yankees' top two, arguably top three.

On offense, the teams have similarities. The Yankees were eighth in the league in batting average, the Astros were eleventh. The Yankees were sixth in on base percentage, the Astros were eighth. The Yankees were third in slugging percentage, the Astros were second. The Astros, as noted, were second in the league in home runs, and the Yankees were fourth. They can each draw walks; New York was second in walk rate, Houston fifth. They both like to hit the ball in the air; the Astros and Yankees were 1-2 in fly ball rate and 15-14 in ground ball rate. They had some differences: The Astros led the league in stolen bases with 121 while the Yankees were third to last with 63, and the Astros led the league in strikeout rate while the Yankees were ninth. But overall, the offenses are similar. 

It's worth mentioning that the Astros have the youngest team in the league at the plate (average age, per Baseball Reference, 26.6 years) while the Yankees have the oldest (31.1). But the Yankees have the third-youngest pitching staff (27.4) and the Astros the second-oldest (29.4). I can't see how that's relevant in a one-game play-in, though, unless the game lasts, I don't know, four or five years.

The Yankees finished the year with a 45-36 record at home, the seventh best in the league, and were 42-39 on the road, one of only four American League teams with a winning record on the road. The Astros somewhat famously tied Toronto for the best home record in the league, 53-28, but their road record of 33-48 was second worst in the league and enough, in my view, to make them the underdogs Tuesday night. Keuchel on short rest and the Yankee bullpen are additional reasons to favor the home team.

National League Wild Card Game: Cubs at Pirates. Listen, and understand! Jake Arietta is out there! He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead. 

Trailing 30 - And That's a Wrap

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraphs' Leaders application. Comment for the week: Predictions for September Players of the Month: David Ortiz in the American League, Bryce Harper in the National League. Pitchers of the Month: David Price in the American League and (of course) Jake Arrieta in the National League.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Los Angeles     18-10     1. Chicago         21- 8

2. Boston          17-11     2. Pittsburgh      18-11    

   Toronto         17-11     3. Miami           16-11         

4. Texas           17-12     4. Los Angeles     16-12   

5. Bal, Cle        16-12     5. San Francisco   15-12        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Oakland         10-17     1. Cincinnati       9-20      

2. Kansas City     12-16     2. Philadelphia     9-18 

3. Detroit         12-15        San Diego        9-18      

   Seattle         12-15     4. Milwaukee       10-18
5. New York        13-16     5. Atlanta         11-15

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Choo, Tex        .385     1. Prado, Mia       .350  

2. Betts, Bos       .375     2. Yelich, Mia      .349      

3. Eaton, Chi       .363     3. Gordon, Mia      .342           

4. Pillar, Tor      .358     4. Harper, Was      .330          

5. Beltre, Tex      .339        Inciarte, Ari    .330       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. McCann, NY       .179     1. Ramos, Was       .145         

2. Headley, NY      .186     2. Owings, Ari      .150       

3. Bradley, Bos     .187     3. Utley, LA        .182
4. Castillo, Bos    .198     4. Taylor, Was      .193           

5. Dozier, Min      .200     5. LeMahieu, Col    .202      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Choo, Tex        .489     1. Votto, Cin       .466           

2. Betts, Bos       .444     2. Harper, Was      .451         

3. Davis, Bal       .443     3. Prado, Mia       .419         

4. Encarnacion, Tor .435     4. Granderson, NY   .417         

5. Eaton, Chi       .429     5. Goldschmidt, Ari .413      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Ortiz, Bos       .716     1. Harper, Was      .758        

2. Rasmus, Hou      .658     2. Carpenter, SL    .706   

3. Trout, LA        .653     3. Arenado, Col     .607       

4. Encarnacion, Tor .652     4. Davis, Mil       .606       

5. Bautista, Tor    .632     5. Cespedes, NY     .602        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Bautista, Tor       9     1. Harper, Was        11
   Encarnacion, Tor    9     2. Davis, Mil         10        

   Machado, Bal        9     3. Arenado, Col        8
4. 4 with              8        Bour, Mia           8
                                Carpenter, SL       8

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Choo, Tex          26     1. Harper, Was        22        

2. Betts, Bos         25     2. Carpenter, SL      21     

3. Bogaerts, Bos      23        Yelich, Mia        21
4. Davis, Bal         21     4. 3 with             20
   Machado, Bal       21                             

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Beltre, Tex        33     1. Arenado, Col       28        

2. Ortiz, Bos         26     2. Bour, Mia          24      

3. Bautista, Tor      25     3. Castro, Chi        21       

4. 3 with             23     4. Harper, Was        20
                                Rizzo, Chi         20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Andrus, Tex         9     1. Gordon, Mia        11
2. Pillar, Tor         8     2. Blackmon, Col       6     

3. Lindor, Cle         6        Inciarte, Ari       6   

   Marisnick, Hou      6        Pagan, SF           6
5. 4 with              5     5. 2 with              5
                                                     
   Saves                        Saves

1. Street, LA          9     1. Ramos, Mia          9

2. Boxberger, TB       8     2. Jansen, LA          8

3. Miller, NY          7        Melancon, Pit       8
   Tolleson, Tex       7     4. Axford, Col         7
5. 4 with              6        Casilla, SF         7

   ERA                          ERA

1. Anderson, Cle    1.09     1. Arrieta, Chi     0.39

2. Quintana, Chi    1.50     2. Strasburg, Was   1.24

3. Hill, Bos        1.55     3. Teheran, Atl     1.62

4. Santana, Min     1.88     4. Lackey, SL       1.78

5. Duffey, Min      1.95     5. Peavy, SF        1.96

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Doubront, Oak    8.04     1. Heston, SF       6.04

2. Brooks, Oak      7.76     2. Nicolino, Mia    5.40

3. Holland, Tex     6.19     3. Cashner, SD      5.34

4. Cueto, KC        6.14        Zimmermann, Was  5.34

5. Archer, TB       5.81     5. Leake, SF        4.85

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Hill, Bos        0.66     1. Arrieta, Chi     0.57

2. Dickey, Tor      0.85     2. Strasburg, Was   0.72
3. Tomlin, Cle      0.89     3. Scherzer, Was    0.76

4. Estrada, Tor     0.91     4. Lester, Chi      0.786
5. Quintana, Chi    0.97     5. Peavy, SF        0.791

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Carrasco, Cle      43     1. Scherzer, Was      57     

   Keuchel, Hou       43        Strasburg, Was     57

3. Richards, LA       40     3. Arrieta, Chi       46

4. Ventura, KC        38     4. Kershaw, LA        43

   Verlander, Det     38     5. Gonzalez, Was      42

Next Up: Last Chance to Win the National League Central

Top of the National League Central, morning of September 28, one week left in the season:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  98 58 .628  --
Pittsburgh 95 61 .609   3
Chicago    90 65 .581 7.5

I think we can be fairly confident in saying two things:

1. By taking two of three against the Cubs over the weekend, the Pirates have probably wrapped up home field for the wild card play-in.
2. If the Pirates are going to catch the Cardinals--who finish their season against the execrable Atlanta Braves, while the Pirates play the almost-as-execrable Cincinnati Reds who nonethless have a 10-6 record against Pittsburgh--they need to sweep the next three games at home against St. Louis.

I'd forgotten about this, but do you know how the baseball tiebreaker rules could hose the Cardinals and Pirates? In the NFL, there are all sorts of convoluted measures (won-lost within the division and conference, point differential, net touchdowns, among others) that determine the seeding if two teams finish with identical records. In baseball, they just play another game. Let's say the Pirates sweep St. Louis and then each team wins two of three this weekend. They'd be tied for first with identical 100-62 records. They would then be required to play a game in Pittsburgh next Monday to determine the division champion, with the loser hosting the Cubs on Wednesday for the wild card game. That would put the losing team, which would be the team that currently has the best or second-best record in baseball, at a significant disadvantage, as they would be playing full-bore baseball, not resting regular hitters or pitchers, for seven straight games. The Cubs could rest regulars and would have a day off on Monday.

(One thing a tie wouldn't do is mess up the teams' rotations as it did last year, when the Pirates burned Gerrit Cole in the last game of the season in a vain attempt to catch the Cardinals, leaving Edinson Volquez to get lit up in the wild card game (five runs allowed in five innings) against 2014 postseason force of nature Madison Bumgarner. This year, if the teams are tied and they have to play a game Monday, it looks to me as if the Pirates would go with Cole (18-8, 2.60 ERA) on Monday and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.27 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs Wednesday. The Cardinals would go with Michael Wacha (17-6, 3.15 ERA) on Monday and Jaime Garcia (10-5, 2.36 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs. All four are better options than Volquez was, in my opinion.) 

Speaking of the Cubs, last night's game emphasized the risk of facing Chicago for a one-game play-in. Here are a couple tables.

LOWEST ERA ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	ERA	W	L	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	0.80	11	1	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	.422	16
Kris Medlen	2012	19	0.94	9	0	12	2	1	95.1	64	12	10	5	14	95	0.818	.484	34
Roger Clemens	1990	12	0.97	9	2	12	5	4	92.2	79	12	10	0	19	89	1.058	.562	61
Tom Seaver	1971	16	1.10	10	4	16	12	2	139.1	83	20	17	6	30	143	0.811	.478	42
Spud Chandler	1943	14	1.12	10	2	14	11	2	121.0	90	23	15	1	20	65	0.909	.476	46
Bob Gibson	1968	16	1.19	11	4	16	14	7	144.0	97	25	19	6	27	150	0.861	.480	50
Johan Santana	2004	15	1.21	13	0	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	.443	18
Larry Gura	1981	11	1.25	7	3	11	7	1	86.2	59	17	12	3	17	27	0.877	.507	48
Dean Chance	1964	23	1.29	15	4	20	12	8	167.0	112	28	24	4	50	123	0.970	.490	44
Gary Peters	1966	12	1.29	7	3	12	7	2	97.2	67	16	14	4	13	58	0.819	.500	46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.
(OPS+ is OPS adjusted for park and season, with an average value of 100. Arrieta's OPS+ of 16 means that hitters have fared 84% worse than average against him.)

LOWEST OPS ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	OPS	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	.422	11	1	0.80	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	16
Hoyt Wilhelm	1965	35	.442	6	2	1.33	0	0	0	81.0	41	15	12	5	17	62	0.716	31
Johan Santana	2004	15	.443	13	0	1.21	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	18
Nolan Ryan	1986	13	.444	6	2	2.27	13	0	0	83.1	40	23	21	4	34	100	0.888	26
Clayton Kershaw	2015	13	.453	9	1	1.48	13	2	1	97.0	61	17	16	4	14	121	0.773	24
Joe Horlen	1964	18	.456	7	4	1.56	17	6	1	126.2	71	28	22	5	40	89	0.876	34
Pedro Martinez	2000	15	.458	9	3	2.03	15	4	2	111.0	66	25	25	8	12	144	0.703	19
Sandy Koufax	1965	22	.459	11	5	1.94	20	13	6	166.2	92	39	36	12	37	187	0.774	36
Don Wilson	1971	15	.466	10	4	1.43	15	11	1	126.0	72	27	20	7	35	88	0.849	39
Nolan Ryan	1972	17	.468	8	8	1.41	17	10	4	140.2	74	29	22	2	75	173	1.059	43

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.

The Cubs' Jake Arrieta, who will undoubtedly pitch in the wild card game, is basically having the best second half in baseball history, at least since the All-Star game began in 1933.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Cardinals are 16-12 over the past 30 days, tying them with the Dodgers for the fifth best record in the league, a half game behind the 17-12 Pirates and a game behind the 17-11 Cubs. They've scored 4.3 runs per game during the period, the fifth fewest in the league (the Pirates, at 4.7, are seventh in scoring) and they've given up 4.4 per game, the seventh fewest (the Pirates are second at 4.0). Yes, that means the Cardinals have managed to maintain the fifth-best record in the National League over the past 30 days despite being outscored, 122-120. Lucky? Yeah, a little, though the Dodgers, with an identical 16-12 record, have scored only one more run than they've allowed.

When the Pirates last played the Cardinals, at the beginning of the month, I wrote:

Their 2.67 ERA to date is the lowest in a non-strike-shortened year since the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, and they're on pace to win 105 games, which would be the most in the majors since the same franchise won 105 in 2004.

They've slowed down some. The team ERA is now 2.91, now "only" second in a non-strike post-1968 season, trailing the 1969 Orioles (2.83) and barely ahead of the 1988 Mets (2.908; the Cards are at 2.907). And they're on pace to win 102, not 105. They're a little banged up, with starting catcher Yadier Molina out with a thumb injury and starting pitcher Carlos Martinez done for the season with shoulder stiffness, but they've gotten other injured players (left fielder Matt Holliday, first baseman Matt Adams, center fielder Randal Grichuk) back from the disabled list this month.

What's Going Right? Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.86 over the past 30 days, fifth lowest in the league. Only by the standards of the team's full-year performance can that be considered a disappointment, and they've led the league in inducing ground balls. The Cardinals hitters have been middle-of-the-pack over the past 30 days in terms of batting average (.264, eighth in the league) and slugging percentage .425, sixth), but they're third in on base percentage (.339), with the fifth highest walk rate in the league. They have 32 infield hits over the past month, easily the most in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The Cardinals batters strike out a lot (fourth highest rate in the league over the past 30 days) and they've been pretty inept basestealers (seven stolen, six caught stealing). They've hit 26 homers, tied with the Pirates for the sixth fewest. The bullpen's had a 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth highest in the league, though it's 3.97 without yesterday's ninth inning, when Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness allowed seven runs to the Brewers, coughing up a 3-1 lead and ending the team's home season on a sour note. The relievers have struck out 28% of the batters they've faced over the past 30 days, the most in the league, but they've allowed homers on 16% of fly balls, second highest in the league and given up the lowest rate of soft contact in the league. 

Who's Hot? The loss of Martinez stings, as he'd pitched better than his 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days would indicate, with the second-highest strikeout rate on the team. With him out, the Cardinals' top two starters of late have been Jaime Garcia  and John Lackey, both of whom the Pirates will miss. The offense has been carried by three players. Third baseman Matt Carpenter is leading the club over the past 30 days with a .304 batting average, .643 slugging percentage (fifth in the league) and eight home runs (tied for sixth); he's also compiled an excellent .376 on base percentage, resulting in a 1.019 OPS (fifth). Right fielder Jason Heyward's .405 on base percentage is twelfth in the league over the past 30 days and he's batting .303 with a .424 slugging percentage. Rookie Stephen Piscotty has played first, left, and right while generating a .302/.378/.462 slash line. In more limited play, another rookie, Tommy Pham, has hit .317/.364/.650, primarily in center but also in left.

Who's Not? None of the three starters the Pirates will face have fared very well over the past 30 days. Tonight's starter, Lance Lynn, has a 4.38 ERA and has walked as many batters as he's struck out, and Tuesday's starter, Michael Wacha, has a 6.75 ERA with 14 walks and five homers allowed over his last 20 innings. Wednesday's start goes to lefty Tyler Lyons, making his first start since September 2. He was a spot starter in three stints with the club prior to the All-Star break, compiling a 5.02 ERA. Since returning to St. Louis for a couple weeks August and when rosters expanded in September, he's got a 2.53 ERA in 21.1 innings, with a good 18:3 strikeout:walk ratio and a not-so-good five home runs allowed. On offense, the team's gotten little production over the past 30 days from shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.244 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .302 slugging percentage--by contrast, Jordy Mercer, having a tough year with the bat, is hitting .262/.323/.369 over the past 30 days) and none from catcher, where Molina and Tony Cruz have combined for a .206/.268/.265 slash line. 

What's the Outlook? In a way, if the Pirates don't sweep the Cardinals, I hope they drop two of three. As long as the Cubs don't play out of their minds, that would cement the home field wild card game for Pittsburgh--no chance of catching the Cards, no chance of getting caught by the Cubs--and allow them to give a lot of players some rest. But sweeping the Cardinals, yeah, that'd be fun. Series sweeps are pretty unlikely, and I don't think we'll see one here, but this is not the invulnerable Cardinals team we saw earlier in the season. There are chinks in their armor.