Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

First one of these of the season! Let's get right into it.

How Are They Doing Lately? They dropped two straight to the Padres. The Cubs suck.

OK, just kidding. Put it this way: The Pirates are tied for the tenth best record in baseball and the fifth best record in the National League. They are second in their division. But the trail the first place team in their division, the Cubs, by seven games. In the National League East, the fourth-place Marlins are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the National League West, the last-place Padres are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the American League East, the last-place Yankees are as close to first as the Pirates are. In the American League Central, the fourth-place Tigers are only half a game further from first than the Pirates are. In the American League West, the last-place Angels are only a game farther from first than the Pirates are.

The Cubs have the best record in baseball. They're scored the most runs per game. They've given up the fewest. They've scored, on average, three more runs per game than their opponents--no other team's outscored by more than 1.7--and, based on their run differential, they should be a game better than their 25-8 record. They've been really, really good. Don't take my word for it - Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs concur. And, of course, the Cubs swept three games at PNC Park a week and a half ago by a combined score of 20-5.

What's Going Right? Over the past 30 days, they're sixth in the league with a .263 batting average and .430 slugging percentage but first in on base percentage at .367. They've walked in 13% of plate appearances, by far the most in the league, and struck out in only 19%, the fourth lowest. They're last in the league at generating ground balls and swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. They're disciplined and good. On the mound, over the last 30 days, their starters' ERA of 2.06 is the best in the league by far, and the starters have the league's fourth highest strikeout rate, third highest ground ball rate, third highest rate of soft contact allowed, and the lowest rate of both hard contact and home runs as a percentage of fly balls. They've been a little lucky, allowing an unsustainably low .256 batting average on balls in play and an unsustainably high 82% of baserunners left stranded, but even with average figures, they'd be good.

What's Going Wrong? When the starters are going as well as the Cubs' have, there's a limited need to go to the bullpen--Cubs relievers have pitched the fewest innings in the league over the past 30 days--but Chicago's bullpen's been mortal, with a 4.20 ERA, sixth highest in the league, hurt by a high walk rate (13%, highest in the league) and too many fly balls leaving the park (18%, third highest). Cubs relievers have only five saves over the past 30 days, tied for the second fewest in the league, but that's more a reflection of the team's margin of victory, which doesn't create save opportunities.

Who's Hot? Oh, everybody, more or less. The team's getting above-average offensive performance from all four infield positions and left and center field. Three of the five starting pitchers have an ERA below 2.00 over the last 30 days (the Pirates will face all three) and the other two, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks, are at 2.76 and 3.10, respectively. Closer Hector Rondon has been pretty untouchable over the past 30 days, allowing four hits, one run and no walks while striking out fourteen over ten innings.  

Who's Not? Over the last 30 days, backup catcher David Ross, pressed into service by an injury to Miguel Montero, is hitting .179/.300/.359, but with very strong defense. The biggest bust has been free agent signee Jason Heyward, batting .205/.307/.250 and still looking for his first home run of the year. The relievers other than Rondon has had either a high ERA or peripherals (high walk and/or home run rates) that suggest that their ERAs should be higher.

What's the Outlook? In the Cubs series of May 2-4, the Pirates never led, not even for an inning, as they were mowed down by the Cubs' bats and starters Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, and Jon Lester. This time, they travel to Chicago, and they'll face...Hammel, Arrieta, and Lester. Am I expecting another sweep? No, but I'm not optimistic. The Cubs are good.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Cubs haven't played the Pirates since the two teams met over ten dates in April and May, with the Cubs taking four. The last time they met was on May 17, at which time the Cubs were in second in the National League Central, while the Pirates were 18-20, tied with the Reds for third. Since that date, the Pirates have the best record in baseball, 43-23, while the Cubs are tied for sixth best, 36-31. So they've both played well, though the Pirates have played better. Entering play today, the Pirates are in line to be the National League's first wild card team. The Cubs, who've won five straight, are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the No. 2 wild card, four behind the Pirates. It's not exactly the pennant drive, but the three games starting tonight at PNC Park could have post-season consequences.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-11 record, which is an unimpressive-sounding seventh best in the National League, but they're only percentage points behind the 14-10 Mets and Phillies (tied for fifth), a game behind the 16-10 Cardinals (fourth) and 15-9 Dodgers (third), and a game and a half behind the 16-9 Pirates (second) and 15-8 Giants (first). They've compiled a decent number of wins, though the presence of the Cardinals and Pirates ahead of them illustrates how tough the National League Central is this year. They've scored 3.7 runs per game over the period, the fifth fewest in the league, while giving up 3.9 runs per game, the sixth most. Does that sound lucky, a winning record despite giving up more than they've scored? Well, it is, but they're not alone: The Pirates have scored 4.3 and given up 4.4 over the past 30 days. So neither team has played as well as its record would indicate. The Cubs made a couple minor deals at the trade deadline, adding starter Dan Haren (whom the Pirates will face in his Cubs debut Wednesday) and reliever Tommy Hunter.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' strong starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over, and it's struggled over the last 30 days. Its 4.64 ERA is third highest in the league, and they've blown five saves (second most). In fairness, they've probably been a little unlucky as well, as a league-leading 32% of baserunners have scored and they've allowed a batting average on balls in play of .325, well above the league average of .299. Neither of those figures are likely to persist.

The offense has been bad. They've hit .222 with a .342 slugging percentage over the last 30 days, both worst in the league, and their .303 on base percentage is fifth worst. They've struck out in 24% of their plate appearances, third most in the league, making contact on just 75% of their swings, the lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? Every Cubs starting pitcher has an ERA of 3.00 or lower over the past 30 days except Jason Hammel (whom the Pirates won't face) and Dallas Beeler (whom Haren's replacing). The Pirates will go against the team's two best starters tonight and tomorrow, Jon Lester (1.98 ERA, 43 strikeouts and four walks over his last 36.1 innings) and Jake Arrieta (2.08 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 34.2 innings). First baseman Anthony Rizzo leads the Cubs in home runs with five and RBI with 16 over the past 30 days, though his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage are all below his full-year averages. Center fielder Dexter Fowler has walked in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, helping him compile an outstanding .416 on base percentage. Rookie catcher-left fielder Kyle Schwarber, recalled from the minors on July 17, has been the team's most consistent hitter, with a .320/.433/.540 slash line in 17 games.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been run-of-the-mill mediocre, but two have been notably bad. Shortstop Starlin Castro is batting .144/.179/.167 over the last 30 days, with two extra-base hits, two unintentional walks, and 21 strikeouts over 24 games. Third baseman/All-Star/Rookie of the Year candidate Kris Bryant is batting .165 with a .284 on base percentage and has struck out in nearly of third of his plate appearances over the past 30 days. The Cubs have operated sort of a bullpen-by-committee this year, but over the past 30 days, Hector Rondon (1.26 ERA, four saves, five holds, 15 strikeouts and two unintentional walks over 14.1 innings) has clearly outshone Jason Motte (three saves, one blown save, two holds, 5.23 ERA) and Rafael Soriano (a free agent signed by the Cubs in June, the Nationals' closer much of last year, 6.35 ERA in six games). 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates have a better record than the Cubs this year, have scored more runs, and given up fewer. However, they face two of the best starting pitchers in the National League over the next two nights. Taking the series two games to one would be an accomplishment, but dropping two of three would be neither a big surprise nor a panic signal.

Next Up: Chicago Cubs

The Pirates have now completed four three-game series: two with Milwaukee and one each with Cincinnati and Detroit. The Brewers and Reds are generally expected to be National League Central also-rans, while the Tigers are--what's the opposite of also-rans? Rans?--in the American League Central. True to form, the Reds and Brewers occupy the last two positions in their division, and the Tigers have the best record in baseball.

Keeping with the Central theme, the 6-6 Pirates now host the 6-5 Cubs for four games. This could be the start of a pretty lively rivalry. They're both young teams. The average age of Cubs batters (weighted by at bats plus games played) is 27.3, second-youngest in the National League, with the Pirates just behind at 27.7, tied with the Padres for third. Pirates pitchers (weighted by 3 times games started, plus games plus saves) are fifth youngest at 28.9, with the Cubs at the league average of 29.3. Both teams should stay pretty young, as their farm systems are stacked: ESPN's Keith Law rates the Cubs No. 1 and the Pirates No. 7. And, after a long, long period of ineptitude--excluding the Houston Astros, who are now in the American League, the Pirates or Cubs have been last in the National League Central in each of the past ten seasons--both teams are poised to compete for a wild card and, if the Cardinals falter, the division. After years of one team or the other (or both) being punching bags, the two teams (both of which are data-savvy) are now positioned to be rivals at the top of the division.

That doesn't mean they're identical. The Cubs' estimated payroll of just under $113 million is 14th in baseball and the highest in the division. The Pirates, at $83.5 million, are 23rd in baseball and last in their division. The Cubs made a big splash in the free agent market over the winter, adding left-handed starter Jon Lester for $155 million over six years (or, depending on a team option, $170 million over seven). The biggest move by the low-budget Pirates was re-signing free agent starter Francisco Liriano for $39 million over three years. Going forward, the Cubs have more money to burn, while Pirates fans worry about second baseman Neil Walker, first baseman Pedro Alvarez, and closer Mark Melancon departing as free agents after the 2016 season. The Pirates farm system includes some top-notch pitchers, including Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, and Nick Kingham. The Cubs' top prospects are all position players, suggesting that the team may spend some of its available cash on free agent pitchers next winter.

And there's Kris Bryant. The No. 2 pick in the 2013 amateur draft, Bryant was Baseball America's No. 1 rated prospect entering the season. He batted .425 with nine homers in 40 at bats in spring training, but was sent down to the minors to start the year, ostensibly to work on his defense at third (which remains weak) but actually to preserve a year of control for the Cubs. In any case, he was called up last Friday and has batted .300 with a .500 on base percentage in three games since.

Fun fact about Kris Bryant: He is 23 years, 106 days old. He has three career hits. At a similar age, Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper had...well, we don't know, because Harper won't be 23 years, 106 days old until 2015. He's got 368 career hits, and he's more than nine months younger than Bryant. That says something about both of them.

The Cubs will start Jake Arrieta, Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks in the series, which means they'll miss Lester, robbing Pirates fans of the opportunity of seeing pickoff attempts like this:

and throws to first on comebackers to the mound like this:

So far this season, the Cubs hitters have a .227/.316/.372 slash line, ahead of the Pirates' .222/.281/.355 across the board. Several hitters are having nice, if not noteworthy, seasons, and the only batter to have struggled a lot is second baseman Arismendy Alcantara, who's batting .077 with no extra-base hits and strikeouts in 34% of plate appearances, the eighth-highest rate in the league among batters with 30 or more plate appearances.

Cubs starting pitchers have a 4.52 ERA, fourth worst in the league, nearly a run and half worse than the Pirates' 3.07. The Cubs' bullpen ERA of 2.65 is ahead of the Pirates' 2.94. Among the starters, Arrietta (1-1, 1.98 ERA) and Wood (1-1, 2.31 ERA) have started the year much stronger than Hammel (1-0, 5.11 ERA), Hendricks (0-0, 6.10 ERA) and Lester (0-2, 6.89 ERA).

If The Boss Were Still Alive

Toward the end of February, the Boston Red Sox signed 19-old-Cuban prospect Yoan Mondaca for $31.5 million. Under baseball's borderline-incomprehensible international signing rules, that amount was doubled to $63 million, half to Moncada, and half to Major League Baseball as a "tax" for exceeding Boston's international spending limit. 

Moncada is a highly-regarded prospect, projected to play second or third base, possibly shortstop, with speed and the potential to hit for average and for power. He doesn't seem to fit in with the Red Sox, who have second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed through 2021, newly-signed Pablo Sandoval under contract through 2019 (with a 2020 option), and 22-year old shortstop Xander Bogaerts under team control through 2019. But Moncada's expected to need a year or two in the minors, and a lot can change over two seasons.

The surprise isn't that Moncada got $31.5 million (and that's just a signing bonus; he'll earn a salary above and beyond that) nor that the big-budget Red Sox got him. But a lot of people figured he'd wind up a Yankee. The Yankees, after all, are the richest franchise in baseball, and they enter 2015 with a 31-year-old second baseman who's played the position only 34 games in the majors and batted .220 over the past three seasons, along with a shortstop platoon consisting of a left-handed batter with a .243 career average and a right-handed batter with a .234 career average. Reportedly, they bid $25 million ($50 million with the penalty), with general manager Brian Cashman wanting to go higher but principal owner Hal Steinbrenner balked.

That scenario led, predictably, into many Yankee fans and pundits moaning that if Hal's father, George Steinbrenner, aka The Boss, were still alive, the Yankees would've signed Moncada. Certainly, the elder Steinbrenner had a reputation for not being outbid for free agent talent that could help the Yankees. Of course, his sons, Hal and Hank, haven't exactly been tightwads, as they committed nearly half a billion dollars last winter, signing outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (seven years for $153 million or, optionally, eight for $169 million), catcher Brian McCann (five years for $85 million or six for $100 million), pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (seven years for $155 million with a player opt-out after four years for $88 million), and outfielder Carlos Beltran (three year, $45 million). Still, there's little question that Moncada would be a good fit for the Yankees, nor that the $13 million by which the Red Sox outbid them isn't that large.

I'm still not convinced, though, that George Steinbrenner would've signed him. No question, the man excelled at signing free agents. He also didn't lose key players to free agency, an key reason for the Yankees' success that often gets overlooked. But he wasn't a big fan of young prospects. Moncada's 19, has never played in anything comparable to American baseball leagues, and, as noted above, is probably two years removed from the majors. That's not the type of player the late Steinbrenner coveted. 

Take the first Yankees world championship team under Steinbrenner, the 1977 team. (That's the year Reggie Jackson hit three home runs in the last game of the World Series.) Left fielder Roy White, catcher Thurman Munson, and pitcher Ron Guidry were drafted by the Yankees. Jackson and pitcher Catfish Hunter were signed as free agents. Every other starting position player, every other member of the five-man pitching rotation, the closer and the key setup man--they were all acquired via trade. Some of them were astute deals involving veterans, but many involved prospects. Steinbrenner traded a lot of prospects for established players, filling other needs via free agency.

Want more proof? Look at the greatest Yankee team of recent vintage, the 114-48 1998 squad that swept to a World Championship. Outside of the Core Four of shortstop Derek Jeter, catcher Jorge Posada, starter Andy Pettitte and reliever Mariano Rivera, the team was assembled by trade (first baseman Tino Martinez, second baseman Chuck Knoblauch, third baseman Scott Brosius, left fielder Chad Curtis, right fielder Paul O'Neill) mostly for prospects, and free agency (DHs Darryl Strawberry and Tim Raines; starters David Wells, David Cone, Hideki Irabu and Orlando Hernandez; reliever Mike Stanton). The only home-grown regular, outside of the Core Four, was center fielder Bernie Williams.

Wait, you're saying, that "outside of the Core Four" line is pretty glib. True enough: The Yankees drafted Posada and Pettitte and signed Rivera as an amateur free agent in 1990. They drafted Jeter in 1992. The Boss didn't trade any of them away, so why do I think he had a thing against prospects?

Because he didn't have a chance to trade them away. Steinbrenner was suspended from the Yankees in 1990 for his dealings with outfielder Dave Winfield and reinstated in 1993. During his absence, the Core Four rose through the Yankees farm system; all four arrived in the majors in 1995. And even then, Steinbrenner wanted to trade Rivera for a shortstop who would have blocked Jeter. The man saw prospects more as a means to end, rather than an end.

So would George have spent mid-eight figures for a 19-year-old? It's possible, but I question it. Maybe he'd have more aggressively pursued pitchers Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or James Shields this winter. I think he wouldn't have let second baseman Robinson Cano depart a year ago, creating a hole that Moncada might have been able to fill. (As I said, I think the Yankees' ability to retain its key players is an underappreciated Steinbrenner strength.) But I think there's a decent chance that Yoan Moncada would be a Red Sox farmhand even if The Boss were still alive.

The Week That Was: National League Central

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

CHICAGO CUBS

Traded for: C Miguel Montero

Traded away: RP Zack Godley, SP Jeferson Mejia

Free agents signed: SP Jason Hammel, SP Jon Lester

2015 Impact: One of the Chicago teams--could be the Cubs, could be the White Sox--wins the prize for most-improved over the past week. Lester was one of the marquee free agents this year, and, because he was traded from Boston to Oakland during the season, the Cubs don't lose a draft pick for signing him. Ditto Hammel, who, it should be noted, has been an above-average (measured by park-adjusted ERA) only three times in his career: 2009 with Colorado, 2012 with Baltimore, and last year with the Cubs. (He was 2-6 with a 4.26 ERA after being traded to Oakland in July.) Montero plugs a hole, as Cubs catchers had a .620 OPS last year, second-worst in the league.  

2016+ Impact: The Cubs have a fabulous farm system, so the fact taht Godley and Mejia don't show up on Keith Law's top ten list at the start of the season doesn't mean that they're not promising. However, the Cubs added three solid players who'll be with the team for a while. Lester's signed through 2020, Hammel through 2016 with a club option for 2017, and Montero through 2017. These moves made the Cubs a better team in the short term and the long term.

CINCINNATI REDS

Traded for: SP Jonathan Crawford, SP Anthony DeSclafani, SP Matt Masill, SS Eugenio Suarez, C Chad Wallach

Traded away: OF Chris Heisey, SP Mat Latos, SP Alfredo Simon

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs thinks that the Reds "quietly won the winter meetings," but this sure looks like a present-value-for-future-value set of moves to me. I agree with his general premise that the three major leaguers the Reds traded aren't all that good. But the haul they got in return isn't likely to help much, at least in the near term. Suarez lost a starting job in Detroit, and he's the only one with meaningful major league experience. I think these moves leave the Reds worse off in 2015, though not by a lot.

2016+ Impact: I'll buy the idea that these moves make the Reds a better team beyond 2015. Latos and Simon will be free agents after the 2015 season  and Heisey's a free agent after the 2017 season. So they traded three guys who very likely weren't going to be Reds much longer anyway. A major-league contribution from any of the five young players they received will tip the moves in the Reds' favor.


MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody



PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Traded for: RP Antonio Bastardo
Traded away: SP Joely Rodriguez
Free agents signed: SP Francisco Liriano

2015 Impact: Positive. The signing of Liriano, the team's best starter over the past two seasons, coupled with the previous signing of starter A.J. Burnett for a one-year last hurrah, shores up the Pirates' rotation. The 29-year-old Bastardo is a decent left-handed reliever (3.43 career ERA in 270 relief appearances with 305 strikeouts in 236.1 innings). The Pirates traded one of their two left-handed relievers in November, so Bastardo fills a hole.

2016+ Impact: Liriano slipped from a 16-8 won-lost record in 2013 to 7-10 in 2014, but that was due more to a sharp decline in run support (4.5 runs per game in 2013, 3.4 in 2014, 12th lowest in the league among 60 ERA qualifiers) than a drop in effectiveness (though his ERA did rise by over a third of run). Signing him for three years provides benefits beyond 2015. Rodriguez, 23, struggled in Class AA this season after a solid 2013 in A ball.


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: 1B/3B Mark Reynolds

2015 Impact: The Cards signed Reynolds to a one-year, $2 million contract. He's always been an all-or-nothing type of hitter: swing for the fences, connecting sometimes and missing a lot. Among players with at least 4,000 career plate appearances, he's first all time in at bats per strikeout, 2.72 (i.e., he strikes out 221 times per 600 at bats). He bats right, so presumably he'll pinch hit and platoon some with Cardinals 1B Matt Adams, who's pretty dreadful against left-handed pitchers (.197/.227/.326 career slash line, his home run against Clayton Kershaw in the postseason notwithstanding). If Reynolds doesn't work out, they'll release him. This is a $2 million flyer with little or no downside to St. Louis.

2016+ Impact: He probably won't be around after 2015, but if he is, it's because it worked out well. Again, little or no downside.

The Inscrutable Billy Beane

In my day job as an financial analyst, I followed publicly-traded companies. A big part of the job was analyzing the various moves they made. Often, this pretty easy and, in some ways, rote. Sometimes, it was more complex. And sometimes it really defied explanation. A company would make an acquisition, or get into a new line of business, or do some sort of restructuring, and it just didn't make sense. Investors would call me and say, "Can you figure out the rationale here?" Sometimes, I had to answer "No." However, in some cases (certainly not all), when I knew and respected management, I'd add, "But [name of CEO] is smarter than I am." I'm not saying you'd give the executive a free pass, but my feeling was that if one of these companies did something that didn't seem to make sense, there was a good chance, maybe better than good, that I was missing something because I didn't have the CEO's vision.


Billy Beane has been the Oakland Athletics' general manager since 1997. He's famous because of Michael Lewis's book Moneyball, which came out in 2003, and the movie by the same name starring Brad Pitt in 2011. The book and the movie celebrate how the A's, under his tenure, have remained competitive despite a shoestring budget. 

It wasn't always that way. In 1991, the A's had the highest payroll among the 28 major league teams ($37 million) and drew the fourth-most fans (2.7 million). Since Beane came on board, though, the team's payroll has averaged 24th in the 30-team league, and the team barely drew 2 million in 2014. Nonetheless, they've been competitive. In the 15 seasons beginning in 2000, the A's have been to the postseason eight times and have had only four losing seasons. Their .545 winning percentage during that span trails only the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox, and Angels.

That's why I don't hesitate to say that Billy Beane is smarter than I am. Only eleven teams have had a winning record over the past 15 years, and of those eleven, the A's and the Twins are the only ones with below-average payrolls. (And the Twins have lost 92 or more games in each of the past four seasons.)

All that being said...I don't understand what the the A's are doing with their roster. Let's go back to July. I'm going to list their major moves.

• July 5: Traded outfielder Billy McKinney (minors), shortstop Addison Russell (minors), pitcher Dan Straily and player to be named to the Chicago Cubs. Received pitcher Jason Hammel and pitcher Jeff Samardzija. This was a move to try to take the team over the top. The A's at that point were 53-33, the best record in baseball, but only 3.5 ahead of the hard-charging Angels. Hammel, 31 at the time and in the last year of his contract, was having the best year of his career, 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA. Samardzija, 29 and due to become a free agent in 2016, had a sparkling 2.83 ERA but only a 2-7 record due to lousy run support. Russell was the key to the deal for the Cubs. The 20 year old minor league shortstop is regarded as one of the ten top prospects in baseball.
• July 31: Traded outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and 2015 competitive balance round B pick to the Boston Red Sox. Received outfielder Jonny Gomes, pitcher Jon Lester and cash. More of the same. The A's, at 66-41, still had the best record in baseball, though they were now only 2.5 ahead of the Angels. They traded their left fielder, Cespedes, for two players entering free agency after the season: the 33 year old Gomes, who'd had a good year for the A's in 2012 but was now struggling with a .234 batting average, and Lester, 30, one of the two top left-handed starters in the American League.
• August 24: Purchased catcher Geovany Soto from the Texas Rangers. Soto, 31, has become injury-prone (the last time he played over 100 games was 2011) but he's skilled defensively, and the A's needed catching help, with catcher John Jaso sidelined with a concussion.
• August 31: Traded pitcher Nolan Sanburn (minors) to the Chicago White Sox. Received DH Adam Dunn and cash. Dunn, 34 at the time, was in the last year of a four-year contract he'd signed with Chicago and rumored to be likely to retire after the season (which he did). He was added in a bid to add offense, as in the month since the Lester trade, the A's had collapsed, trailing the Angels by four games when this deal was announced.

Let's take stock of Beane's moves to that point. All of them were an attempt to get the A's to the World Series. Of the players added--Hammel, Samardzija, Gomes, Lester, Soto, and Dunn--only Samardzija remains with the club. The others are free agents and likely to go elsewhere, except Dunn, who's retired. As for the players surrendered, Russell remains a blue-chip prospect, while Cespedes is entering the last year of his contract (he'll be a free agent in 2016) and, it appears, likely to be traded by Boston. 

Given the results for Oakland, one could consider Beane's moves failures. They didn't make it to the Series. They stumbled to the wild card game, finishing 10 games behind the Angels and only one ahead of the Mariners for the second wild card spot. They were eliminated in that game, a wild 12-inning 9-8 loss to the Royals in which they coughed up leads of 2-0 in the first, 7-3 in the sixth, and 8-7 in the twelfth.

But I'd submit that the game turned on a botched play in the first inning. With two outs, Royals DH Billy Butler singled, moving first baseman Eric Hosmer to third, and bringing up the Royals' best hitter, left fielder Alex Gordon. Butler is one of the slowest players in baseball, and Hosmer's nothing special on the basepaths, so it was clearly a situation for the runners to stay put and see whether Gordon could drive in Hosmer to tie the game at two. Instead, on an 0-2 count to Gordon, Butler took off for second before the pitch was thrown. Lester, pitching for the A's, fired to shortstop Jed Lowrie (another free agent unlikely to return to the A's, by the way). Caught in a rundown, Butler turned back to first, and Lowrie threw to first baseman Stephen Vogt. But then Hosmer broke for home, and Vogt threw him out, with Soto applying the tag. Hosmer barreled into Soto, who injured his thumb on the play, forcing the A's to lift him in the third in favor of Derek Norris, who doesn't have Soto's arm. The Royals wound up stealing six bases on Norris, paving the way to their victory. Had Soto stayed in the game, Kansas City likely wouldn't have been able to run wild, likely leading to a different outcome. That busted play in the first--a freak result of a really bad call by manager Ned Yost; who does a delayed double steal with two slow runners and your best hitter at the plate?--ended the A's season, at least from my perspective. Can't blame that on Beane.

Anyway, so now the A's face 2015 without a lot of the players that brought them within a fluke injury on a stupid play of a Divisional Series against the Angels. Here's what they've done since, again ignoring the minor moves:

• November 19: Signed DH Billy Butler as a free agent. Well, that's one way to keep him from making dopey stolen base attempts...Butler is 28. The A's signed him to a three-year, $30 million contract. It's a bit of a headscratcher, as Butler's been in a pretty steep decline since a career year in 2012:

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP
2012	26	161	679	614	72	192	32	1	29	107	2	1	54	111	.313	.373	.510	.882	138	313	20
2013	27	162	668	582	62	168	27	0	15	82	0	0	79	102	.289	.374	.412	.787	116	240	28
2014	28	151	603	549	57	149	32	0	9	66	0	0	41	96	.271	.323	.379	.702	95	208	21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/2/2014.
Remember, OPS+ is OPS adjusted for home park; Butler's 95 last year means he was 5% worse than the average American League hitter. Butler's moving from a ballpark, Kaufman Stadium, that suppressed homers for right-handed batters (per the 2015 Bill James Baseball Handbook) by 8% over the past three years to O.co Coliseum, which suppresses them by 10%. No favors there.
• November 23: Purchased first baseman Ike Davis from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Another guy whose best year was 2012 (when he hit 32 homers for the Mets), Davis, who earned $3.5 million last year, is eligible for arbitration this year, so he shouldn't be too expensive. (UPDATE: He signed for $3.8 million on December 2.) The thing is, the A's already have an arbitration-eligible lefty-swinging first baseman, Brandon Moss. Presumably, he gets moved to the outfield, where he played 84 games at the corners last year, or traded. (UPDATE: Oakland traded Moss to Cleveland on December 8.) Last year, Davis was traded from the Mets, who play in a park that's OK for left-handed power hitters, to the Pirates, whose PNC Park smothers homers by lefties. But O.co Coliseum does too, so he gains nothing from the change of home field. Davis compiled a .722 OPS for the Mets and Pirates last year, giving him an OPS+ of 105, 5% better than the average National League hitter.
• November 28: Traded third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received shortstop Franklin Barreto (minors), pitcher Kendall Graveman, second/third baseman Brett Lawrie and pitcher Sean Nolin. And everyone's head exploded. I heard someone, I can't remember who, say on Sirius/XM Radio that the A's have traded away their three best position players (Russell, Cespedes, and now Donaldson) over five months, and there's truth to that. Donaldson finished fourth in the American League MVP vote in 2013 and eighth in 2014. He hits for power (68 doubles and 53 home runs over the past two years), has good plate discipline (76 walks in each of 2013 and 2014) and won the Fielding Bible Award at third this year. Plus, he won't be a free agent until 2019, so while he'll get a big raise from the major league minimum of $500,000 he earned in 2014 as he enters arbitration, he's under team control for four more years. In return, the A's received a highly-regarded but young (18 years old) prospect in Barreto, a pair of pitchers with seven innings of big-league service between them, and an infielder who's cooled off considerably in 2013-14 (.716 OPS, 97 OPS+) after a hot start to his career in 2011-2012 (.781 OPS, 111 OPS+) as he's struggled to stay in the lineup (average 88 games played in each of the past two years). 

Okay, I can understand Butler and Davis if the A's are still in it to win it. Even last year's Butler is a big upgrade over what the A's trotted out at DH last season (.215/.294/.343 slash line, .637 OPS that was second lowest in the league). He can't run and he's pretty useless in the field (though he did start 35 games at first last year, his most since 2010), but he's an improvement. Davis drove Mets fans crazy with the gulf between his perceived potential and his performance, but he's been an above-average hitter every year of his career except 2013. Maybe you try to get younger at those positions if you're rebuilding, but you can do worse with Butler at DH (as the A's did last year) or Davis at first (the A's again: .230/.303/.381 slash line in 2014 vs. .233/.344/.378 for Davis) as a contender, provided you've got pop elsewhere in the lineup.

But then the A's traded the major source of that pop. Donaldson led the team last year in at bats, hits, runs, RBI, doubles, homers, walks, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Plus, for the budget-conscious A's, he had four years of team control remaining before free agency (though he's likely to get expensive through arbitration). Maybe the A's think that moving Lawrie away from Toronto's Rogers Centre's artificial turf will help keep him in the lineup, and that'll help return him to his 2011-2012 form. Here's a comparison of Donaldson and Lawrie, 2011-12 and 2012-13:

Player	Years	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Donaldson	2011-2	75	274	34	66	16	0	9	33	4	1	14	61	.241	.289	.398	.687	91
Lawrie	2011-2	168	644	99	179	34	7	20	73	20	9	49	117	.278	.336	.446	.781	111
Donaldson	2013-4	316	1187	183	329	68	5	53	191	13	2	152	240	.277	.363	.477	.840	135
Lawrie	2013-4	177	660	68	166	27	3	23	84	9	5	46	117	.252	.310	.406	.716	97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 12/2/2014.

And I'm leaving out one key detail, the only one that in my mind could make this trade work out a lot better than it looks on paper: Age. Lawrie turns 25 in January. Donaldson is 29 next week. He is older than everybody the A's have added since the season ended: everyone in the Blue Jays trade, Davis, and Butler. Four years is a big difference. In terms of peak, Donaldson's unlikely to get much better than he is now and is more likely to get worse than get better. Lawrie, by contrast, is entering what should be his prime years, assuming he can stay healthy. Now, there's a good chance that Donaldson's decline could be better than Lawrie's prime. That OPS gap of 124 points over the past two years leaves plenty of room for Donaldson to remain the better hitter as the calendar affects the two differently. And Rogers Centre's the easiest American League part for right-handed hitters to go deep, a benefit going forward for Donaldson and that Lawrie will no longer enjoy. But a return of the pre-2013 Lawrie could make the trade a lot more even. Then, if either of Graveman or Nolin pan out, and Barreto arrives in a few years and makes everybody forget Addison Russell, the trade will work in the A's favor.

There are a lot of ifs there. And strategically, it represents a change from the win-now strategy implied by the Samardzija, Lester, and, arguably, Butler and Davis deals to a build-for-the-future stance. Beane probably isn't done yet, and he's got his track record in his favor. There are those (yes, smarter than I) who like the trade. But I have a hard time justifying the return he got on one of the most valuable properties in baseball, and I have a harder discerning the A's strategy going forward.

But then, Billy Beane's smarter than I am.

Red Sox Fans, Meet the New Left Side of Your Infield

Not really.

Last year, Red Sox third basemen (primarily Will Middlebrooks, but also Xander Bogaerts and Brock Holt) batted .211 with a .271 on base percentage and .308 slugging percentage. Those are all pretty bad! That ranked them 14th in the 15-team American League with a .580 OPS. That's pretty bad, as they weren't particularly close to the Royals, 13th with .658. Red Sox shortstops (primarily Bogaerts and Stephen Drew) batted .250 with a .316 on base percentage and and .369 slugging percentage. That ranked them seventh in the league in OPS. (Red Sox fans will probably be surprised the team's shortstops ranked in the upper half offensively. Keep in mind that shortstops collectively had the lowest OPS in the league, and that Bogaerts hit far better at short (.266/.333/.391 slash line) than at third (.182/.217/.300)).

So by signing free agents Pablo Sandoval, who was the Giants' third baseman last year, and Hanley Ramirez, who played shortstop for the Dodgers, Boston could be seen as upgrading both positions. But they're not; Sandoval will indeed become the team's third baseman, but Ramirez is slated to play left field, where he will join a very crowded Boston outfield that includes Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig, and Holt. Obviously, some of those players will be traded (the leading candidate is Cespedes, acquired at last year's trade deadline from Oakland; the 29-year old has one year remaining on his contract at a reasonable $10.5 million). The shortstop job will apparently be Bogaerts's. 

But what of Sandoval and Ramirez? What can Red Sox fans expect?

Both are coming from two of the toughest parks in baseball for hitters, going to one that is good, though not for the reasons usually cited. Let me explain that. Per the 2015 Bill James Handbook, over the past three seasons, Dodger Stadium, where Ramirez played the past two years, suppressed runs by 12%, doubles by 5%, and triples by 57%. (When I say "suppressed" I mean that there were 12% fewer runs scored in Dodger games at Dodger Stadium than at Dodger games on the road). It was actually an OK place for home runs, boosting homers for right-handed batters like Ramirez by 7%, but it suppressed other hits enough that right-handed batting average took a 7% hit.

Sandoval's a switch hitter, but the Giants' AT&T Park hurt everybody. It suppressed runs by 16%, doubles by 4%, and homers by 34%. With its large outfield, it increased triples (not exactly Sandoval's specialty) by 36%, but overall it suppressed left-handed hitters' batting average by 1% and righties by 7%. It reduced homers from both sides of the plate by about a third. Overall, Dodger Stadium was the the fifth-toughest National League park in which to score a run, and AT&T Park was the second-toughest. 

By contrast, from 2012-2014, the Red Sox's Fenway Park increased scoring by 8%, the second highest boost in the American League. Contrary to its reputation, it's not an easy place in which to hit a home run. In fact, it's been the toughest American League park for left-handed hitters, decreasing long balls by 28%. For righties, it increased home runs by 3%. Overall, though, it boosted batting average by 6%, doubles by 36%, and triples by 13%. Its small foul areas reduced foul outs by 27%, the most in the league.

So Sandoval and Ramirez are moving to friendlier ballparks for hitters. The thing is, neither of them have suffered much from playing in pitchers' parks their entire careers--Ramirez in Miami and Los Angeles, Sandoval in San Francisco. Here are Ramirez's home/road splits:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	610	590	2578	2270	402	683	132	20	102	334	122	42	269	445	.301	.379	.511	.891
Away	613	592	2694	2407	420	720	171	10	89	320	139	41	237	430	.299	.367	.489	.856

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/26/2014.

And here are Sandoval's:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	432	416	1718	1561	203	488	93	12	52	232	7	5	131	191	.313	.365	.488	.853
Away	437	419	1815	1654	195	458	99	7	54	230	4	7	128	273	.277	.328	.443	.771

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/26/2014.

Each player was more effective at home than on the road. That's normal in general, but not so much when a player's home park is tough on hitters. As a team, the Dodgers had an OPS 41 points higher in away games, while the Giants' team OPS was five points lower at AT&T than on the road. So for whatever reason, Ramirez and Sandoval were less affected by their home park than their teammates. Both are likely to get a benefit from Fenway, though not as much as some may expect, given that their penalty for their prior home parks was less than usual.

Neither should be hurt much by Fenway's homer-suppressing properties, though. Ramirez bats right, and Fenway's favorable for right-handed sluggers. As a switch hitter, Sandoval mostly bats left, but his career home run percentage from the left side--3.4% of plate appearances--isn't high. Among 54 left-handed and switch-hitting batters with 500 or more games played since 2008 (Sandoval's rookie season), Sandoval ranks last in home run rate. So he's not a home run-dependent guy, at least in the regular season.

That brings up two odd splits of Sandoval's. First, his record in the regular season and the postseason:

Season	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Regular season	869	3533	3215	398	946	192	19	106	462	11	12	259	464	.294	.346	.465	.811
Postseason	39	167	154	21	53	13	0	6	20	0	0	10	22	.344	.389	.545	.935

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/26/2014.

If the only time you saw Sandoval play was during the postseason, you'd think he's an elite slugger. He's not. He's a very good hitter, but not the Hercules that he's become in October. And the Red Sox are smart enough to not read too much into his performance over 39 games.

Next, his performance against right- and left-handed pitching:

Like most switch-hitters, Sandoval fares better when batting left. You heard a lot during the postseason that he was pretty useless against left-handed pitching. As the table shows, that was certainly true in 2014. But that's not the norm for him. Expect him to be better against left-handers in 2015.

A few other tidbits about Sandoval and Ramirez:

• Ramirez has acquired a reputation for being injury-prone. That's been true over the past two years, during which he's missed 110 Dodger games, but it wasn't the case up until then. From 2006 to 2012, he played at least 151 five times and 142 once. The only season he missed substantial time was 2011, when he had shoulder surgery. During thpse seven seasons, the only shortstop to play more games than Ramirez's 1,007 was Derek Jeter with 1,060. So for most of his career, he's been durable. Now that he's on the wrong side of 30, though--he turns 31 next month--staying in the lineup may be a challenge, made easier by the move to the outfield.
• The Red Sox are pretty disciplined at the plate, swinging at only 28% of pitches outside the strike zone (third lowest in the majors) and making contact on 80% of swings (tenth highest). Sandoval's 84% contact rate was 51st among 146 batting title qualifiers this year, and Ramirez was 72nd at 82%. So they'll both fit in by that measure. But Ramirez chased 29% of pitches outside the strike zone (76th highest), while Sandoval, a notorious free swinger, was first at 45%. What's doubly remarkable is that despite leading the majors at swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, he made contact on 80% of such swings (the major league average was 63%), seventh highest in the majors. He swings at, and hits, just about everything. His free-swinging ways make him possibly the most entertaining batter to watch. (The link, to an article by Baseball Prospectus's Sam Miller, never fails to make me laugh.)
• A lot has been written about Sandoval's physique. He is, put bluntly, fat. It hasn't affected his hitting, and he's a surprisingly good third baseman, with quick reactions and a strong arm, but there's plenty of reason to worry that he'll age quickly. However, he does have the option of moving to DH if his fielding deteriorates, on the theory that 39-year-old David Ortiz won't last forever. 
• Ramirez is the rare player to return to a team that traded him away. He was 21, with two major league at-bats under his belt, when he was traded by the Red Sox following the 2005 season with three other prospects (one of whom, pitcher Anibal Sanchez, panned out) to the Marlins for starter Josh Beckett, third baseman Mike Lowell, and reliever Guillermo Mota, who in turn was flipped for, among others, outfielder Coco Crisp. Beckett, Lowell, and Crisp all played key roles for the 2007 World Champion Red Sox, so that swap worked. 

Overall, these signings improve the Red Sox, though it's incumbent on them to sign some free agent starting pitchers and/or trade some of their surplus outfielders for starters. Red Sox starting pitchers had a 4.36 ERA last year, third-worst in the league, and it was 4.68 excluding Jon Lester, who was traded for Cespedes at the trade deadline. Ramirez and Sandoval have their talents, but they don't pitch.