Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Cubs haven't played the Pirates since the two teams met over ten dates in April and May, with the Cubs taking four. The last time they met was on May 17, at which time the Cubs were in second in the National League Central, while the Pirates were 18-20, tied with the Reds for third. Since that date, the Pirates have the best record in baseball, 43-23, while the Cubs are tied for sixth best, 36-31. So they've both played well, though the Pirates have played better. Entering play today, the Pirates are in line to be the National League's first wild card team. The Cubs, who've won five straight, are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the No. 2 wild card, four behind the Pirates. It's not exactly the pennant drive, but the three games starting tonight at PNC Park could have post-season consequences.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-11 record, which is an unimpressive-sounding seventh best in the National League, but they're only percentage points behind the 14-10 Mets and Phillies (tied for fifth), a game behind the 16-10 Cardinals (fourth) and 15-9 Dodgers (third), and a game and a half behind the 16-9 Pirates (second) and 15-8 Giants (first). They've compiled a decent number of wins, though the presence of the Cardinals and Pirates ahead of them illustrates how tough the National League Central is this year. They've scored 3.7 runs per game over the period, the fifth fewest in the league, while giving up 3.9 runs per game, the sixth most. Does that sound lucky, a winning record despite giving up more than they've scored? Well, it is, but they're not alone: The Pirates have scored 4.3 and given up 4.4 over the past 30 days. So neither team has played as well as its record would indicate. The Cubs made a couple minor deals at the trade deadline, adding starter Dan Haren (whom the Pirates will face in his Cubs debut Wednesday) and reliever Tommy Hunter.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' strong starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over, and it's struggled over the last 30 days. Its 4.64 ERA is third highest in the league, and they've blown five saves (second most). In fairness, they've probably been a little unlucky as well, as a league-leading 32% of baserunners have scored and they've allowed a batting average on balls in play of .325, well above the league average of .299. Neither of those figures are likely to persist.

The offense has been bad. They've hit .222 with a .342 slugging percentage over the last 30 days, both worst in the league, and their .303 on base percentage is fifth worst. They've struck out in 24% of their plate appearances, third most in the league, making contact on just 75% of their swings, the lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? Every Cubs starting pitcher has an ERA of 3.00 or lower over the past 30 days except Jason Hammel (whom the Pirates won't face) and Dallas Beeler (whom Haren's replacing). The Pirates will go against the team's two best starters tonight and tomorrow, Jon Lester (1.98 ERA, 43 strikeouts and four walks over his last 36.1 innings) and Jake Arrieta (2.08 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 34.2 innings). First baseman Anthony Rizzo leads the Cubs in home runs with five and RBI with 16 over the past 30 days, though his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage are all below his full-year averages. Center fielder Dexter Fowler has walked in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, helping him compile an outstanding .416 on base percentage. Rookie catcher-left fielder Kyle Schwarber, recalled from the minors on July 17, has been the team's most consistent hitter, with a .320/.433/.540 slash line in 17 games.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been run-of-the-mill mediocre, but two have been notably bad. Shortstop Starlin Castro is batting .144/.179/.167 over the last 30 days, with two extra-base hits, two unintentional walks, and 21 strikeouts over 24 games. Third baseman/All-Star/Rookie of the Year candidate Kris Bryant is batting .165 with a .284 on base percentage and has struck out in nearly of third of his plate appearances over the past 30 days. The Cubs have operated sort of a bullpen-by-committee this year, but over the past 30 days, Hector Rondon (1.26 ERA, four saves, five holds, 15 strikeouts and two unintentional walks over 14.1 innings) has clearly outshone Jason Motte (three saves, one blown save, two holds, 5.23 ERA) and Rafael Soriano (a free agent signed by the Cubs in June, the Nationals' closer much of last year, 6.35 ERA in six games). 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates have a better record than the Cubs this year, have scored more runs, and given up fewer. However, they face two of the best starting pitchers in the National League over the next two nights. Taking the series two games to one would be an accomplishment, but dropping two of three would be neither a big surprise nor a panic signal.

The Week That Was: National League East

The past week was the most frenetic in my recent memory in terms of baseball transactions. In this and the following posts, I'm going to try to break it down, division by division. For each team, I'll list the players they traded, the players they received in trades, and the free agents they signed, then my take on the likely short-term (2015 season) and long-term (2016 and beyond) impact.

A few ground rules:

• I'm considering team rosters going into the week. For example, the Pirates signed Francisco Liriano to a free agent contract. Liriano had been a Pirate the past two seasons, but he became a free agent after the World Series. So he counts as an addition to the Pirates. Similarly, two Oriole free agents, Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, signed with other clubs. Those don't count as losses for Baltimore, as they stopped being Orioles when they filed for free agency on October 30.
• I'm excluding minor deals. The Dodgers traded Drew Butera, a reserve catcher who batted .188 this year, to the Angels for a player to be named later. That's not the type of deal I'm looking at.
• I'm ignoring the money. It really isn't all that material, at least in the short term. A huge contract is a problem only if (1) it sets the bar higher for all players, making less-moneyed teams less able to compete, (2) it results in the team owning a high-salaried player becoming so hamstrung by the contract that they can't afford other necessary moves, or (3) a team feels obligated to play a bad player who's making a lot of money. (2012 Angels, leaving Trout in Salt Lake in April while Vernon Wells and his $21 million contract batted .225 with a .244 on base percentage, I'm lookin' at you.) 
• I'll list all players alphabetically.

Let's start in the National League East.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Traded for: Nobody

Traded away: Nobody

Free agents signed: IF Alberto Callaspo, RP Jim Johnson, OF Nick Markakis

2015 Impact: Any team that signs free agents and doesn't trade anyone away has to improve itself, right? So the Braves have improved themselves. Callaspo turns 32 next year and had a terrible 2014 (.223 on batting average, .290 on base percentage, .290 slugging percentage) but can play a bunch of positions. Johnson saved 101 games for the Orioles in 2012-13 but compiled a 5.08 ERA for Oakland and Detroit last year. Both were low-dollar one-year signings. If they don't work out, the Braves will get rid of them, no harm done. Markakis will fill the right field hole created by the trade of Jason Heyward to St. Louis. Heyward's better, but Markakis is an OK player. He's got on-base skills but not a lot of power and he's an overrated outfielder.

2016+ Impact: I'd be mildly surprised if Callaspo and Johnson are still with the club in 2016. Markakis will be 32 and likely in decline, but still, he's better than nothing.

MIAMI MARLINS

Traded for: 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, SP Mat Latos, SP Andre Rienzo, IF Miguel Rojas

Traded away: C-IF Austin Barnes, RP Chris Hatcher, SP Andrew Heaney, OF-IF Enrique Hernandez, RP Dan Jennings, SP Anthony DeSclafani, C Chad Wallach

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: You are forgiven if you haven't heard of any of the guys the Marlins traded; Hatcher and Jennings were the only two who saw significant time in the majors. The team has a deep farm system and they traded prospects for established major leaguers (Gordon, Haren, and Latos). In other words, they traded a bunch of guys who probably wouldn't contribute much in 2015 for some guys who will. So they improved the short-term outlook. By how much, I'm not all that sure. Haren is 34 and has hinted that he may retire if he can't play for a West Coast team near his family. (This has led to speculation that the Marlins may trade the former Dodger to the Angels.) Latos had an injury-shortened 2014. It was the first time since his rookie season in 2009 that he didn't start at least 31 games. It's also disconcerting that his strikeout rate has declined every year since 2010, falling from a good 25% of batters faced that year to a below-average 18% in 2014. As for Gordon, people make a big issue about his 64 stolen bases in 2014, but I'm wondering who the real Dee Gordon is:

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011-2013	181	621	81	159	19	5	2	34	66	19	78%	37	110	.256	.301	.312	.614
2014 thru July 6	85	334	50	101	14	9	2	25	42	9	82%	27	54	.302	.356	.416	.772
2014 after July 6	60	275	42	75	10	3	0	9	22	10	69%	4	53	.273	.287	.331	.618

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/13/2014.

Now, it could very well be that Gordon just got worn down last year, his first as a full-time regular, and that's why he slumped so badly at the end of the season. (Don't get swayed by his OK batting average; leadoff hitters are paid to get on base, and his .287 on base percentage was atrocious.) On the other hand, maybe his hot start last year was the aberration. My money's more on the latter than the former. Plus, he's not all that young (he turns 27 in April) and he's not a good fielder.

2016+ Impact: When you trade prospects, there's always the risk that you'll miss out on a future star. I'm not really blown away by the players the Marlins received, and of the ones they traded, well, going into the season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Heaney No. 1 and DeScalfani No. 6 in the Marlins' system, which he ranked No. 19 in the majors (link behind ESPN Insider paywall). I think these moves are likely to wind up hurting the Marlins in 2017 if not 2016.

NEW YORK METS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Man, it's tough to be a Mets fan.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Traded for: SP Joely Rodriguez
Traded away: RP Antonio Bastardo
Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: The trade listed here is a pretty minor one. The 29-year-old Bastardo is a decent left-handed reliever (3.43 career ERA in 270 relief appearances with 305 strikeouts in 236.1 innings). Former Pirate farmhand Rodriguez, 23, is a lefty starter who was pretty good in Class A in 2013 (2.70 ERA), not so much at AA in 2014 (4.84 ERA). The bigger Phillies trade involves their shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, who is being traded to the Dodgers, though the details of the trade (like, who the Phils are getting) haven't been finalized. The subtext is: Phillies management realizes that the team is too old and has a lousy farm system, so it needs to trade major-league talent for prospects. The impact will be negative in 2015 for a team that wasn't going to be any good anyway.

2016+ Impact: That depends on whom they get for Rollins. Rodriguez isn't a top prospect.


WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Traded for: 2B Chris Bostick, RP Abel De Los Santos
Traded away: RP Ross Detwiler
Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This is a pretty minor deal for the team that finished with the best record in the league last year and probably doesn't need a lot of tinkering. Detwiler was not a major contributor in 2014 and didn't figure prominently into the team's 2015 plans. Bostick, 21, was a 44th round (!) draft pick in 2011 and his teammate for part of the season, 22-year-old De Los Santos, had a good year for two A-level teams this year (1.92 ERA, 65 strikeouts in 56.1 innings spread across 41 games). Law ranked Bostick No. 6 in the Rangers organization at the start of the season.

2016+ Impact: It'll be positive for Washington if Bostick or De Los Santos pans out, but that's not certain. Given the team's problems at second base (Washington second basemen had a .229/.296/.377 slash line in 2014, giving them a .672 OPS, which is pretty bad, though it ranked seventh in the NL), this could wind up being a nice trade for the Nationals if Bostick progresses.

Flyover: Los Angeles Dodgers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. The National League West is the only divisional race I haven't discussed so far. Let's change that, starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

How Are They Doing Lately? Their 16-10 record over the past 30 days is the third best in the league and half a game ahead of their divisional rivals, the San Francisco Giants. They've scored the most runs in the National League, 5.7 runs per game, by a wide margin; the Giants are second with 5.0. However, they've given up 4.5 per game, the third most in the league. At 88-67 entering play today, the Dodgers have assured themselves a playoff berth, and any combination of five Dodgers wins and/or Giants losses will give them the NL West crown. They're two games behind Washington and a game ahead of St. Louis in the race for the best record in the league (and home field advantage throughout the playoffs). 

What's Going Right? The Dodgers are first in the league in batting average (.296) and on base percentage (.359) and third in slugging percentage (.454) over the past 30 days, while the league's averaging .253/.314/.386. The pitchers have been pretty middling, seventh in the league in ERA. They have the sixth-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest walk rate, but they're third to last in strand rate, as 31% of baserunners have come around to score. They've had good control, as LA's one of four pitching staffs in the National League with over half of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days.

What's Going Wrong? Those offensive stats are a little bit of an illusion. The Dodgers have benefited from a .356 batting average on balls in play, by far the best in the league, which is averaging .302 over the past 30 days, and they've gotten home runs on 15% of fly balls, while the league's averaging less than 10%. Neither of those sorts of deviations are usually sustainable; the Dodgers were at .309 and 9.5%, respectively, in the first half of the year. So while they've been hitting like crazy, they're not likely to keep it up. The pitchers are third-worst in the league at inducing swings outside the strike zone, at 30%, and as a result opposing hitters are making contact on 80% of swings, which is above average. 

The Dodgers have also had a pretty easy schedule. Over the past 30 days, entering play today, they've had five games against the worst team in the league (Arizona), three against the second-worst (Colorado), three against the third-worst (Chicago), and six against the sixth-worst (San Diego). They've had only six games against teams with winning records, San Francisco and Washington, and they split them. So there's plenty of reason to take that 16-10 record over the past 30 days with a grain of salt.

Who's Hot? Most Dodgers batters have been swinging the bat well of late. Over the past 30 days, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is leading the league in home runs (eight) and RBI (28), and he's second in runs (21) and slugging percentage (.614). Juan Uribe and Justin Turner have been a formidable tag team at third, with a combined .395/.429/.463 slash line over the past 30 days. Left fielder Carl Crawford's batting .379, right fielder Matt Kemp is batting .310 with seven homers and a .610 slugging percentage, second baseman Dee Gordon's batting .327 while shortstop Hanley Ramirez is at .305. That's six of eight lineup positions where the Dodgers have a .300+ batting average over the last 30 days. 

Three starting pitchers--Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, and Zach Greinke--have been almost unbeatable, combining for an 11-1 won-lost record and a 2.40 ERA. Setup man Pedro Baez has a 1.46 ERA over the past 30 days, the only reliever with over eight innings pitched with an ERA below 3.00. 


Who's Not? Much has made of center fielder Yasiel Puig's slump, as he's gone from batting .309 with twelve homers prior to the All-Star break to .283 with three homers since. He was particularly bad in August, when he hit .216 with no homers. He's come alive some in September (.313 with two homers entering play today), and over the past 30 days his slash line is .250/.365/.375 compared to .253/.314/.386 for the league as a whole--not great, but not much different from the league average.

After Kershaw, Haren, and Greinke, the rotation's been a mess. The No. 4 starter, Hyun-Jin Ryu is hurt, and the other three starters the Dodgers have tried (Roberto Hernandez, Carlos Frias, Kevin Correia) have a combined ERA of 7.92. 

What's the Outlook? The Dodgers should win their division, but they're not as good a team, it seems to me, as their recent record would suggest. As things stand now, they'd play the Cardinals, another team that I've described as good but flawed, in a divisional series. The Dodgers' top three starters may give them the edge, but the Cardinals can pitch as well. It could make for an interesting series.

2014 Predictions: NL West

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL Central is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70 in 2013, 4.0 runs scored per game (15th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (3rd in MLB): They're returning pretty much the same lineup as last year, with Cuban import Alex Guerrero taking over at second at some point and Dan Haren added to the rotation. This could be a really strong team if Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp can stay healthy and Juan Uribe and Yasiel Puig can be as good as last year. Do you think that's possible? I don't. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 94-68.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 81-81, 4.2 runs scored per game (14th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (21st in MLB): Can they keep their streak of finishing with an exactly .500 record, where they finished in 2012 and 2013 intact? I don't think so. They were lucky last year (as I pointed out here, their 34-21 record in one-run games was the best in the league last year, and that figure tends to drift toward .500). They're moving their best defensive outfielder, Gerardo Parra, to the bench in order to get Mark Trumbo's bat in the lineup. And their big free agent pickup, Bronson Arroyo, has a bulging disk. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  78-84.

San Diego Padres - 76-86, 3.8 runs scored per game (23rd in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (20th in MLB): I don't have a great feeling. 1B Yonder Alonso has hit 11 HR per 600 plate appearances in his career. LF Carlos Quentin and SP Josh Johnson are trips to the disabled list waiting to happen. Here are 3B Chase Headley's home run totals the past five years: 12, 11, 4, 31, 13. Can you spot the fluke?  At least they presumably won't lose their shortstop, Everth Cabrera, to the Biogenesis scandal again this year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 77-85.

San Francisco Giants - 76-86, 3.9 runs scored per game (21st in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (19th in MLB): The Padres and Giants both play in pitchers' parks, so their below-average rankings in runs allowed says a lot about their key problem, pitching. The Giants added Tim Hudson, who's 38 and coming off a gruesome ankle injury, but he's been healhty in spring training. The rest of the team's unchanged other than the addition of Michael Morse in left. Morse was terrible last year (.215/.270/.381 slash line) and his best position is probably DH but he spent most of the season in Seattle, where everybody's bat seems to turn to mush, so he's a bounceback candidate. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 80-82.

Colorado Rockies - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (28th in MLB): The team's offense will depend in large part on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, clearly the two best players on the team, staying healthy, and 35-year-old Michael Cuddyer, the 2013 NL batting champ who had the best year of his career at the plate (yes, even taking Coors Field into account), not getting old. Brett Anderson, acquired via trade from Oakland, would seem to be a good candidate for success at Coors, as he throws a lot of sliders (a good Coors pitch) and generates tons of grounders, but he's in his sixth year and has topped 100 innings in a season only twice. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 77-85.

What Happens When a Pitch is Thrown: Part 2 - Strikes and Balls

Here is the story behind this series.

In the first entry, we determined that just under 45% of pitches are in the strike zone, and pitchers who get it in the strike zone regularly, particularly those who exceed 46%, do better than those who don't. But I noted that throwing into the strike zone isn't the same as getting a strike, because the umpire can get the call wrong in or out of the zone and the batter may swing at a pitch outside the strike zone. So now we're going to just look at strikes.

How often is a pitch a strike? Per Fangraphs, of the 709,916 pitches thrown last season, 451,242 were strikes. That's 63.6%.

Is there a difference between the leagues? A little bit: 63.4% in the American League, 63.7% in the National League. I'm guessing here, but I assume the difference is due to pitchers batting. We've all seen pitchers flailing away at pitches outside the strike zone.

Is there a difference between starters and relievers? Starters get strikes on 63.7% of pitchers, relievers 63.4%. That surprised me since, as we saw in the last post, relievers throw more pitches in the strike zone. Digging deeper, AL starters and relievers are about the same: 63.4% starters, 63.3% relievers. The larger difference is in the NL: 63.8% starters, 63.4% relievers. Again, I assume that's because starters are more likely to face the other team's pitcher than relievers, who are more likely to face a pinch hitter with better strike zone command

Is there a difference between right-handed and left-handed pitchers? Not enough to care about. It's 63.4% for lefties, 63.5% for righties. 

Does it matter? I broke all pitchers into ten groups, based on the percentage of their pitches that were strikes. The top group, Group 1, had strike percentages between 67.7% (NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw) and 83.3% (the Phillies' John McDonald, who got 10 strikes on the 12 pitches he threw - the most for a guy you've heard of is 73.9% for Boston's closer Koji Uehara). The lowest 10%, Group 10, got strikes on less than 60.5% of their pitches. Here's how the 10 groups fared in terms of ERA, WHIP (walks and hits per inning), and percentage of batters struck out, walked, or allowed a home run:
   Group ERA  WHIP   %K    %BB   %HR
     1  3.16  1.10  22.0   4.8   2.4
     2  3.39  1.17  21.8   6.4   2.5
     3  3.80  1.23  20.3   6.5   2.7
     4  3.52  1.24  20.4   7.1   2.3
     5  3.72  1.25  20.9   7.8   2.7
     6  3.86  1.32  19.0   7.3   2.5
     7  4.00  1.33  19.8   8.4   2.5
     8  4.14  1.39  20.0   9.6   2.5
     9  4.61  1.47  17.4   9.3   2.5
    10  4.64  1.55  16.9  12.3   2.5

This is a lot more dramatic than the chart in the last entry, which divided pitchers by their ability to pitch in the strike zone. Throw out the freak ERA for Group 3 (or, more accurately, blame it on CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, R.A. Dickey, and Joe Blanton), and every successive group is worse than the one before it. Getting strikes is clearly important, the more the better. The top 10, Group 1, has starters like Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, and Jordan Zimmermann, and relievers like Uehara, Mariano, and Kenley Jansen. The best pitchers get the most strikes.

A fair question to ask: Why is getting strikes a bigger determinant of pitching success than getting pitches in the strike zone? Ah, that's where things start to get interesting. Next post.

What We Know So Far: The more strikes a pitcher gets, the better he fares.