What's Bugging the Statheads About This World Series

Every postseason, it seems, engenders a de rigueur response from someone in the media about how one team or the other or the style of play or something infuriates the stats guys, sabermetricians, Moneyball crowd (my favorite term of disrespect, because it misses the point of the book, which is exploiting market inefficiencies, not statistical analysis), whatever. This year's Series brought out a larger-than-usual number of such columns, given that both teams don't hit a lot of home runs, strike out much, or draw a bunch of walks. The Giants were 17th, 17th, and 21st in the majors in home runs, strikeouts, and walks, respectively, while the Royals were famously last in all three categories, the first such team to make it to the Series. Add the Royals' penchant for stolen bases (153, first in the majors, 11% more than the second-ranked team) and sacrifice bunts to extend the narrative.

Not that any of this is really all that true. I mean, yes, the Royals were last in those categories during the regular season, but, as I pointed out after Kansas City won the ALCS, they made it to Series by hitting an above-average number of homers, walking at a much higher-than-average rate, and striking out about as frequently as everyone else. As for the speed, well, the Royals have attempted only five stolen bases in the ALCS and World Series, and were successful only twice, so the stolen base has been more a detriment than a weapon for them.

But there's one thing that both managers have done that's fair game for criticism from he analytic community: Sticking with their starters too long. The times through the order penalty (TTO) refers to what happens to starting pitchers each successive time they face the opposing team's lineup. The longer a pitcher goes, not only does he get tired, but the hitters get used to his delivery and timing, making it easier to make contact.

In 2014, for example, in batters' first plate appearance against a starting pitcher, they batted .246 with a .304 on base percentage and a .377 slugging percentage. They hit home runs in 2.3% of plate appearances, walked in 7.1%, and struck out in 21.1%.

In the second plate appearance, batters' slash line improved to .256/.313/.395. They homered in 2.3% of plate appearances, walked in 7.0%, struck out in 19.1%.

In the third plate appearance, the slash line was .268/.327/.421. Per plate appearance, batters homered 2.7% of the time, walked 7.4%, and struck out 17.7%.

The pattern is pretty clear: The more times a pitcher faces a batter, the more hits, home runs, and walks he gives up, and the fewer strikeouts he gets. 

This has played out in the Series:

• In Game Two, the teams were tied at two runs apiece after five. The managers kept their pitchers in, even though both were facing batters for the third time. In the top of the sixth, Royals starter Yordano Ventura allowed two singles and was lifted. Reliever Kelvin Herrera put out the fire. In the bottom of the sixth, Giants starter Jake Peavy allowed a walk and single, was pulled, but both runners scored, and by the time the inning ended, the Giants were losing 7-2. Both starters ran into problems the third time through the order, though only the Giants were burned.
• In Game Three, the Royals were up 1-0 after five. In the top of the sixth, Royals manager Ned Yost let starting Jeremy Guthrie bat, and he grounded out. Giants starter Tim Hudson then faced Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar for the third time. He singled, left fielder Alex Gordon doubled him home, and a groundout and a pitching change later, first baseman Eric Hosmer drove in Gordon. In the bottom of the inning, Yost's decision to let Guthrie bat came back to bite him, as Guthrie allowed a single and a double and then, facing center fielder Gregor Blanco for the third time, a walk. Again, the Royals bullpen put out the fire, as the Royals won 3-2. Again, both starters ran into problems the third time through the order.
• Game Four was a blowout, with the Giants winning 11-4, but the Royals had a 4-2 lead going into the fifth inning. Starting the bottom of the fifth, facing Giants second baseman Joe Panik for the third time, Royals starter Jason Vargas gave up a double. Yost relieved him, so there wasn't much damage, though Panik came around to score in an inning which the Giants tied the game. Vargas gave up a third-time-through-the-order hit that at the time was costly.

I'm not including Games 1 and 5, because the Giants jumped to a first-inning 3-0 lead in the first game, and besides, Madison Bumgarner, who started both games for the Giants, has been invincible in the postseason (six starts, 1.13 ERA, 0.67 WHIP). He also has had a minimal TTO penalty this year, with batters compiling a .706 OPS against him in their first plate appearance, .603 in the second, .675 in the third. (The league average OPS in 2014 was .694.)

Tonight, the starters are Jake Peavy for the Giants and Yordano Ventura for the Royals. Here's how batters did against them in their starts this year:

Jake Peavy	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR%	SO%	BB%
First plate appearance	258	20	59	12	2	7	23	63	.229	.290	.372	.662	2.4%	24.4%	8.0%
Second plate appearance	263	28	59	13	1	8	17	54	.224	.276	.373	.648	2.8%	18.9%	5.9%
Third plate appearance	220	34	71	17	4	8	22	40	.323	.387	.545	.933	3.1%	15.7%	8.6%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/28/2014.

Yordano Ventura	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR%	SO%	BB%
First plate appearance	245	11	52	10	3	1	20	54	.212	.276	.290	.566	0.4%	20.1%	7.4%
Second plate appearance	241	33	60	13	1	8	26	57	.249	.326	.411	.737	3.0%	21.1%	9.6%
Third plate appearance	181	18	48	5	1	4	20	42	.265	.340	.370	.710	2.0%	20.5%	9.8%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 10/28/2014.

Peavy has been pretty good through the first couple times through the order but he's collapsed the the third time through. That .933 OPS that he's allowed--well, Mike Trout, who will be the AL MVP, had a .939 OPS this year. Giants manager Bruce Bochy really shouldn't let him pitch after he's gone through the Royals lineup twice.

As for Ventura, he's been nails the first time through the order, but below average thereafter: the .725 OPS he's allowed the second and third time through the order compares to an AL average of .706.

Presumably, both pitchers will be on short leashes tonight, with the Giants one win from the championship and the Royals one loss from elimination. But if we see, say, Peavy come out in the sixth to face the Royals lineup a third time, clinging to a one- or two-run lead, we could see more sixth-inning fireworks (12 of the 42 runs scored this Series, nearly 30%, have come in the sixth inning, during which starters are typically facing the opponents' batters a third time), courtesy of a failure to understand the times through the order penalty.

The World Series: Something's Gotta--Well, Probably's Gonna--Break

Well, it's the first all-Wild Card World Series since 2002, when the Giants fell to the Angels in seven games, in a series that features four one-run games (Games One, Two, Four, and Six), two blowouts (Angels 10, Giants 4 in Game Three; Giants 16, Angels 4 in Game Five), and the emergence of a bullpen star, Anaheim's Francisco Rodriguez, who racked up 13 strikeouts in 8.2 innings, which is three more innings than he pitched in the regular season. 

One of the reasons I've been wrong in almost all of my postseason predictions (I did guess that the Orioles would beat the Tigers) is that neither of this team's finalists, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, have played true to form:

• The Royals scored 4.02 runs per game in the regular season, below the AL average of 4.18. The league leader was the Angels, with 4.77. In the postseason, when the quality of pitching is above-average, the Royals have scored 5.75 runs per game, about a run per game more than the best-scoring team in the league during the regular season. And, as I've pointed out, they've done it not with speed, but with the homers, walks, and strikeouts that they avoided during the regular season.
• San Francisco's best starter, Madison Bumgarner, is unimpeachable. But the No. 2 starter, Jake Peavy, had a 4.72 ERA with Boston before joining the Giants via a trade in late July. He had a 2.17 regular season ERA with the Giants and a 1.86 postseason ERA. The No. 3 starter, Tim Hudson, had an 8.72 ERA over five starts in September and a 3.29 ERA in the postseason. The No. 4 starter, Ryan Vogelsong, was almost as bad as Hudson in September (5.53 ERA) and had a strong start against the Nationals (5.2 innings, four baserunners, one run) before a weak one (four runs allowed in three innings) in a game the Giants won anyway. That four-man rotation has put Yusmeiro Petit in the bullpen, where he's allowed two hits and no runs over nine innings. He had a 4.40 ERA in September.

One of these trends will break down. Either the Royals will stop hitting so well, or the Giants starters after Bumgarner will stop pitching so well. They can't both continue like this.

Both teams have strong bullpens. The Royals, as I noted in my Championship Series preview, had the best record in the American League in games they led after six innings, 65-4. That, of course, is attributable to Kelvin Herrera (usually their seventh inning reliever, 1.41 ERA), Wade Davis (eighth inning, 1.00 ERA), and Greg Holland (ninth inning, 1.44 ERA). But the Giants weren't slouches either, going 62-6 in games they led after six, fourth-best in the National League and sixth-best in the majors.* But these teams were also among the most successful at coming back from deficits after six innings: the Giants were fifth-best in the majors (13-60) and the Royals seventh-best (11-58) in games they trailed going into the seventh inning.** Still, the Royals' trio has combined for a 1.05 ERA in the postseason, giving the Royals, in my mind, an edge in games that they lead.

The question is whether they'll get there. Given my initial premise--that the clock's going to strike midnight for either the Royals' offense or the Giants' rotation--I'm more skeptical of Kansas City, which ranked last in the majors in walks and homers in the regular season. I've made it clear that I'm biased in favor of small-market low-payroll teams, and the Royals' $89.3 million payroll (17th in the majors) is almost 40% lower than the Giants' $145.1 million (sixth). But if I had to make a guess, I'd expect the Royals to wind up on the short end of a low-scoring World Series. 

*Top six won-lost records in games leading after six innings: Padres (!) 60-1 (!!), Royals 65-4, Nationals 72-6, Dodgers 81-7, Twins 52-5, Giants 62-6.

**The Nationals were 14-54 in games they trailed after six innings, the only team to win over 20% of such games. But the bottom of the list is more interesting. The Braves were trailing 63 games after six innings, and came back to win only three--a winning percentage of less than 5%. And the Dodgers were even worse, going 2-54 in games they trailed after six. Dodgers fans have a reputation for leaving games early to beat the traffic, and in 2014, it seems, they were justified, as the team went on the win 92% of the games they led after six while losing 96% of games they trailed after six. 

Flyover: San Francisco Giants

This continues a series of looks at teams over the past month. Got the Dodgers yesterday, so let's check in on the San Francisco Giants today.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Giants have been just OK over the past 30 days, going 15-12. They've lost a game and a half to the first-place Dodgers and three games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, with whom they're now tied. Since the Pirates took the season series between the clubs, 4-2, a wild card tie would mean the Giants would have to travel to PNC Park for a one-game play-in. Over the past 30 days, the Giants are third in the league in scoring, 4.7 runs per game, but fourth-to-last in run prevention, giving up 4.5 runs per game. 

What's Going Right? They'be been good at getting on base (.284 batting average, .336 on base percentage, both second in the league) over the past 30 days. Their .421 slugging percentage is fifth, as they've hit only 20 homers, which is tenth in the NL. Their batting average on balls in play is .330 compared to a league average of .303, suggesting that their batting average and on base percentage have been a little lucky, but only 7.5% of their fly balls have gone over the fence compared to a league average of 9.6%, suggesting that their slugging percentage and home run totals have been a little unlucky. The Giants have been the toughest team in the NL to fan, striking out in only 17% of plate appearances compared to a league average of 21%. They've had problems with their bullpen, as I'll explain below, but the starters have been best in the league at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (33%), they've struck out the most batters (23% of batters), and walked the fourth fewest (6%).

What's Going Wrong? The team ERA of 4.10 over the past 30 days is the third worst in the league. The starters have been mediocre (3.58 ERA, eighth in the league) but the relievers have been awful, with a league-worst 5.25 ERA. The relievers haven't allowed an unusually batting average on balls in play, one of the key factors indicating that they've been unlucky. They've just been bad. 

Who's Hot? Buster Posey is on an absolute tear over the past 30 days, leading the league in batting average at .402, second in on base percentage at .427, and second in slugging percentage at .647 as he makes a bid for a second MVP award in three years. Left fielder Gregor Blanco has a .300/.382/.544 slash line filling in for the injured Mike Morse, and his outfield mates Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence are, coincidentally, also hitting exactly .300 over the past 30 days. Shortstop Brandon Crawford has emerged from a seasonlong slump--his slash line was .225/.313/.362 at the end of August--to hit .342/.376/.468 over the past 30 days. 

The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw has sewn up the Cy Young award and, possibly the MVP as well, but the Giants' Madison Bumgarner will get some downballot Cy Young votes, as he's tied for third in wins and is fourth in innings pitched and strikeouts. Over the past 30 days, he's 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, but that's been only second best on the club, as Jake Peavy, who joined the club via a July 26 trade with the Red Sox, is 4-1 with 0.79 ERA. 

Who's Not? No GIants reliever has pitched ten innings over the past 30 days, as manager Bruce Bochy has scrounged around looking for somebody who's good. Setup man Sergio Romo has a 2.70 ERA and closer Santiago Casilla's at 3.38, but Tim Lincecum, Jean Machi, and Jeremy Affeldt have combined for an 8.20 ERA over 20 innings. Starter Tim Hudson has collapsed following a strong first half (2.78 ERA at the All-Star break), as he's compiled a 7.03 ERA over his past five starts, and made it out of the fifth inning in his starts only three times since the end of July. Ryan Vogelsong's been bad too, with a 4.93 ERA over six starts, during which he's walked nearly 12% of the batters he's faced. 

Left fielder Morse has managed only 33 plate appearances over the past 30 days, batting just .214 with no home runs as he's battled an oblique injury that looks likely to shut him down for the rest of the year. While you can't complain about the performance of Blanco, Pagan, and Pence, Morse is the team's most dangerous power hitter. Another good hitter, first baseman Brandon Belt, has had a lost, injury-marred year, but at least he's back playing.

What's the Outlook? The Giants, having been swept by the Padres over the weekend, have probably played themselves out of contention for the National League West, though they seem solid for the wild card. As I noted in my Pirates comment, I like their chances against the Bucs, to the degree that one can predict the winner of a single game. The winner, though, moves on to what's likely to be the Nationals, a team with few if any notable weaknesses that's playing the best baseball among National League contenders of late. It's going to be tough to keep the Giants' streak of world championships in even-numbered years in this decade going. 

More on the Giants - Is It Luck?

Yesterday, I wrote that the San Francisco Giants' 5-16 swoon (now 5-17) is pretty grim, as no San Francisco team to have had a record that poor over 21 games has ever finished the season with a winning record. Later in the day, Jonah Keri, writing at FiveThirtyEight, delved into the reason for the team's abrupt turn of fortune, from the best in the majors to the worst. The whole article's here. His conclusion: It's a matter of "cluster luck." Early in the season, the team's batters were bunching their hits together and the pitchers scattering them throughout the game, resulting in more runs scored and fewer allowed than you'd expect. Of late, it's gone the other way. Or, as Keri puts it:

Whatever luck the Giants had earlier in the season, these latest numbers show that their good fortune has almost completely evaporated.

Keri's more optimistic than I (I wrote, "Can the Giants shake off their slump and hold off the Dodgers? History says they won't.") about the Giants going forward, so you Giants fans (and Dodgers haters) who didn't like my conclusion should feel better about his:

The Giants are a talented team, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them contend for the NL West title, and maybe even make a run at the World Series. They have a young ace in Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson enjoying a late-career revival, Tim Lincecum suddenly pitching masterfully, All-Stars Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval heating up after lousy starts, excellent first baseman Brandon Belt due back soon after a long stint on the disabled list, and a general manager who’s made lots of aggressive trades in his 18 years at the helm. The cluster luck regression has come, yet they’re still hanging onto first place. 

Reality Check: Adam Wainwright

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny is a regular on MLB Network Radio on Sirius/XM. Yesterday he was asked about Adam Wainwright, the ace of the Cardinals' pitching staff. He remarked that Wainwright is great but underappreciated, noting that he wasn't named NL Pitcher of the Month in April despite leading the league in a number of categories.

That made me think: Which categories?

ERA? Nope, his 1.20 ERA was second to Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto's 1.15. Pitcher of the Month Jose Fernandez was fourth at 1.59.

WHIP? No, he allowed 0.78 walks and hits per inning pitched, fourth in the league after Cueto (0.77), the Giants' Tim Hudson (0.74) and the Cubs' Jason Hammel (0.69). Fernandez was right behind Wainwright at 0.83.

Strikeouts? Wainwright was sixth with 42. Strikeout percentage? Eleventh, 25.3%. Strikeout to walk ratio? Seventeenth, 3.82. Fernandez was first, first, and sixth.

Pitches in the strike zone? Wainwright was 16th, 52.7%, ahead of Fernandez's 19th-place 52.3%. How about getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone? Fernandez led the league with 37.2%; Wainwright was 23rd at 30.7%. 

Keeping the ball in the park? Only 2.6% of Wainwright's fly balls allowed went over the fence, second best in the league, a percentage so freakily low it's almost certainly a product of some luck. (Sure enough, it's a higher-but-still-outstanding 6.3% in May.) 

He didn't lead the league in innings pitched (third) or batters faced (sixth). He didn't allow the lowest batting average on balls in play (fourth). He didn't lead in baserunners left stranded (eighth). 

The only category I could find in which Wainwright led the league was wins. He was tied for first with the Dodgers' Zack Greinke with five. But even that's a little suspect; in a league in which the average pitcher got run support of 3.97 per nine innings in April, the Cardinals supported Wainwright with 5.80, seventh in the league, higher than Greinke (5.60) and Fernandez (5.45), to name two.  

In short, other than wins, I couldn't find anything in which Wainwright led the league in April.

Throwing Strikes, Getting Strikes - May Update

Over the winter, I did a series of articles about how pitchers' ability to throw strikes affects outcomes. The research is here, here, here, and here. The basic conclusion is this: throwing strikes is good, getting strikes is better. 

Last year, these pitchers threw the largest percentage of pitchers in the strike zone:
     Pitcher           Zone%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Bartolo Colon     58.5%  18-6   2.65  1.17
  2. Cliff Lee         56.9%  14-8   2.87  1.01
  3. Bronson Arroyo    56.1%  14-12  3.79  1.15
  4. Jordan Zimmermann 55.0%  19-9   3.25  1.09
  5. Jose Fernandez    55.0%  12-6   2.19  0.98
  6. David Price       54.0%  10-8   3.33  1.10
  7. Julio Teheran     53.2%  14-8   3.20  1.17
  8. R.A. Dickey       53.1%  14-13  4.21  1.24
  9. Shelby Miller     53.1%  15-9   3.06  1.21
 10. Travis Wood       53.0%   9-12  3.11  1.15
Data from FanGraphs. Zone% = percentage of pitches in the strike zone.

And these pitchers got batters to swing at the largest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone:
     Pitcher        O-Swing%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Hisashi Iwakuma   36.5%  14-6   2.66  1.01
  2. Cole Hamels       36.5%   8-14  3.60  1.16
  3. Patric Corbin     35.3%  14-8   3.41  1.17
  4. Adam Wainwright   34.5%  19-9   2.94  1.07
  5. Homer Bailey      34.1%  11-12  3.49  1.12
  6. Andy Pettitte     34.1%  11-11  3.74  1.33
  7. John Lackey       33.8%  10-13  3.52  1.16
  8. Felix Hernandez   33.6%  12-10  3.04  1.13
  9. Dillon Gee        33.4%  12-11  3.62  1.28
 10. Jordan Zimmermann 33.2%  19-9   3.25  1.09

Data from FanGraphs. O-Swing% = percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which batters swung.

For a frame of reference, the average ERA last year was 3.87 and the average WHIP was 1.30. In case you were wondering, NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw was 35th in Zone% and 13th in O-Swing%. AL winner Max Scherzer was 16th in Zone% and 48th in O-Swing%. 

Obviously, these aren't perfect measures, but they're not bad. The pitchers listed above are all really good. How about this year?

     Pitcher           Zone%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Bartolo Colon     58.5%   2-5   5.36  1.37
  2. Phil Hughes       56.9%   4-1   3.92  1.28
  3. Zach McAllister   56.1%   3-3   3.89  1.30
  4. Nathan Eovaldi    55.0%   2-1   2.86  1.11
  5. Robbie Ross       55.0%   1-4   5.04  1.52
  6. Alfredo Simon     54.0%   4-2   2.89  1.08
  7. Henderson Alvarez 53.2%   2-3   3.33  1.40
  8. Jordan Zimmermann 53.1%   2-1   2.92  1.32
  9. Cliff Lee         53.1%   3-3   3.64  1.29
 10. Jesse Chavez      53.0%   2-1   2.47  1.03
Data from FanGraphs. Zone% = percentage of pitches in the strike zone.

     Pitcher        O-Swing%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Masahiro Tanaka   40.0%   5-0   2.57  1.00
  2. Felix Hernandez   38.0%   3-1   2.73  1.10
  3. Phil Hughes       37.0%   4-1   3.92  1.28
  4. Jose Fernandez    36.7%   4-2   2.44  0.95
  5. John Lackey       36.4%   5-2   3.57  1.21
  6. Tim Hudson        36.3%   4-2   2.09  0.81
  7. Francisco Liriano 35.4%   0-3   4.64  1.45
  8. Stephen Strasburg 35.3%   3-2   3.42  1.35
  9. Roberto Hernandez 35.2%   2-1   4.08  1.46
 10. Dallas Keuchel    34.8%   3-2   3.68  1.18

Data from FanGraphs. O-Swing% = percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which batters swung.

There are two ways you could look at this year's leaders. With the obvious caveat that we're not a fourth of the way through the season, so this isn't a large sample, you could look at that list and see some misfires. (All data are through Sunday, by the way.) I mean, Colon and Ross have been legitimately bad, and Liriano and Hernandez have been...how would you put it...not very good? So has the throwing strikes is good, gettng strikes is better rule broken?

Or is there a better explanation - that maybe Colon et al have pitched better than their record might indicate, and they could be positioned to perform better, and that the perhaps surprising performance of Hughes and Alvarez and Keuchel might be sustainable?

I'm guessing that's the case, but we'll check in later in the season for an update. 

2014 Predictions: NL West

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL Central is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70 in 2013, 4.0 runs scored per game (15th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (3rd in MLB): They're returning pretty much the same lineup as last year, with Cuban import Alex Guerrero taking over at second at some point and Dan Haren added to the rotation. This could be a really strong team if Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp can stay healthy and Juan Uribe and Yasiel Puig can be as good as last year. Do you think that's possible? I don't. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 94-68.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 81-81, 4.2 runs scored per game (14th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (21st in MLB): Can they keep their streak of finishing with an exactly .500 record, where they finished in 2012 and 2013 intact? I don't think so. They were lucky last year (as I pointed out here, their 34-21 record in one-run games was the best in the league last year, and that figure tends to drift toward .500). They're moving their best defensive outfielder, Gerardo Parra, to the bench in order to get Mark Trumbo's bat in the lineup. And their big free agent pickup, Bronson Arroyo, has a bulging disk. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  78-84.

San Diego Padres - 76-86, 3.8 runs scored per game (23rd in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (20th in MLB): I don't have a great feeling. 1B Yonder Alonso has hit 11 HR per 600 plate appearances in his career. LF Carlos Quentin and SP Josh Johnson are trips to the disabled list waiting to happen. Here are 3B Chase Headley's home run totals the past five years: 12, 11, 4, 31, 13. Can you spot the fluke?  At least they presumably won't lose their shortstop, Everth Cabrera, to the Biogenesis scandal again this year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 77-85.

San Francisco Giants - 76-86, 3.9 runs scored per game (21st in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (19th in MLB): The Padres and Giants both play in pitchers' parks, so their below-average rankings in runs allowed says a lot about their key problem, pitching. The Giants added Tim Hudson, who's 38 and coming off a gruesome ankle injury, but he's been healhty in spring training. The rest of the team's unchanged other than the addition of Michael Morse in left. Morse was terrible last year (.215/.270/.381 slash line) and his best position is probably DH but he spent most of the season in Seattle, where everybody's bat seems to turn to mush, so he's a bounceback candidate. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 80-82.

Colorado Rockies - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (28th in MLB): The team's offense will depend in large part on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, clearly the two best players on the team, staying healthy, and 35-year-old Michael Cuddyer, the 2013 NL batting champ who had the best year of his career at the plate (yes, even taking Coors Field into account), not getting old. Brett Anderson, acquired via trade from Oakland, would seem to be a good candidate for success at Coors, as he throws a lot of sliders (a good Coors pitch) and generates tons of grounders, but he's in his sixth year and has topped 100 innings in a season only twice. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 77-85.