Next Up: The Los Angeles Dodgers

I wrapped up my last preview, of the Cubs series, with the line: 

This should be a fun four games.

Yeah, losing three straight, having the home-field wild card advantage slip from four games to two, and losing your best player...that was a freakin' blast.

Now the Pirates head west for three games against the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. There's one word that foreshadows any Dodgers series this year: Kershawgreinke. Do you face the Dodgers's two aces, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, or not?  The Dodgers in games started by Kershawgreinke: 38-20 (.655 winning percentage). The Dodgers in games started by everybodye else: 46-41 (.541 winning percentage). That's the difference between a 106-56 team and an 88-74 team. Unfortunately, the Pirates go against Greinke tonight and Kershaw tomorrow night, meaning that over the course of four days, they'll see the three contenders for the National League Cy Young Award (they faced the Cubs' Jake Arrieta on Wednesday).

How Are They Doing Lately? The Dodgers are 17-9 over the past 30 days, second only to the 19-8 Mets in the National League. (Naturally, the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates, in that order, round out the top five.) They've scored just 3.85 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, but their pitchers have been by far the stingiest, allowing just 3.19 runs per game, nearly half a run per game less than the second-best Pirates. If you're thinking, "That's a pretty good won-lost record given that run differential," you're right. The Nationals, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs all have a better run differential over the past 30 days. So the Dodgers have been good, but maybe not as good as their record might suggest.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers' ERA is 2.66 over the past 30 days, way ahead of the Pirates, in second with 3.29. They have the fourth best strikeout rate, the second lowest walk rate, the highest ground ball rate, and the second-lowest rate of fly balls becoming home runs. But none of that's surprising; we all knew that with Kershawgreinke, the starters' stats would be good. The surprise is that the relievers, the team's key weakness this year, have a 3.10 ERA over the past 30 days, the third lowest in the league. The Dodger bullpen had a 4.20 ERA in June (second worst in the league) and a 6.27 ERA in July (easily the worst), so they've turned things around dramatically of late. Over the past 30 days, the bullpen has struck out 27% of the batters they've faced and walked only 6%, best and second-best in the league, respectively.

What's Going Wrong? The offense. Over the past 30 days, Dodgers hitters have a .232 batting average (last in the league), .313 on base percentage (fifth lowest), and .373 slugging percentage (second lowest). They've hit the fifth fewest homers and struck out at the sixth highest rate. 

Who's Hot? The team's only reliable hitter of late has been rookie shortstop Corey Seager, called up September 3. He's batting .426 with a .526 on base percentage and .617 slugging percentage in 13 games, sending veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins and his .194 batting average and .280 on base percentage over the past 30 days to the bench. The three best Dodgers starters over the past 30 days are Kershaw (1.15 ERA, 52 strikeouts and six walks in 39 innings), Greinke (1.78 ERA, 32 strikeouts and five walks in 35.1 innings), and Brett Anderson (2.76 ERA). The three starters the Pirates will face are, in order, Greinke, Kershaw, and Anderson. In the resurgent Dodger bullpen, closer Kenley Jansen has 8 saves and a 2.57 ERA, with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings, over the past 30 days, and setup man Chris Hatcher has a 1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 13.1 innings.

Who's Not? Rollins, as discussed above, is cold and benched. Catcher Yasmani Grandal is 1-for-53--one single, so that's an .047 batting average and slugging percentage--over the past 30 days. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez has a .229/.312/.365 slash line. Third baseman Justin Turner's is .207/.333/.287. Second baseman Chase Utley's is .224/.305/.388. With right fielder/lightning rod Yasiel Puig hurt, the four main outfielders are Andre Ethier, who's been OK (.314/.345/.451) and three players--Scott Van Slyke, Joc Peterson, and Carl Crawford--who've combined for .224/.303/.355.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates swept three from the Dodgers when the teams met in Pittsburgh in early August. In the first game, Kershaw gave up four runs in six innings (his ERA in seven starts since is 1.00) as the Pirates won in ten. In the second game, the Pirates scored six runs in three innings off Mat Latos (no longer with the team) and held on to win 6-5. In the third game, the team exploded for nine runs in the seventh inning, erasing a 5-3 deficit and winning, 13-6. Reliever Jim Johnson, who took the loss in the first and third games (allowing eight runs in two-thirds on an inning in the latter), has four holds and a save in 14 games since. Jung Ho Kang was 4-for-11 with a home run and 4 RBI in the series. In other words, if the Pirates are going to enjoy similar success at Dodger Stadium, the script will have to change, because it's not going to repeat itself. In the meantime, the team will hope for mutual destruction this weekend when the Cardinals play three in Wrigley against the Cubs.

Next Up: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The Pirates have 23 games remaining in August. Only three--a three-game series in St. Louis starting Tuesday--are against National League Central opponents, but 13 are against the National League West, starting with a three-game series beginning Friday against the Dodgers. I'm going to be off the grid most of the weekend, so I'm going to hit it up now. The Pirates have a better record than the Dodgers (62-44 vs. 61-46) but while the Pirates trail the Cardinals by 5.5 games in the tough National League Central, the Dodgers have a two game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the National League West. The series in Pittsburgh begins with a marquee matchup of Gerrit Cole vs. Clayton Kershaw Friday night. The Pirates face two pitchers the Dodgers acquired at the trade deadline, Mat Latos and Alex Wood, on Saturday and Sunday.

Remember when nobody cared about the Pirates? The entire Dodgers series will be nationally televised. Friday's game will be on ESPN, Saturday afternoon's on Fox Sports 1, and Sunday evening's is the ESPN Game of the Week.

How Are They Doing Lately? At 14-9, the Dodgers are tied with the Phillies for the third-best record in the National League over the past 30 days. (The Pirates are half a game behind at 14-108) The Dodgers have scored only 3.8 runs per game, fifth fewest in the league over that span, while giving up 3.6, the fourth fewest. That run differential is more typical of a team that goes 12-11 over 23 games, not 14-9, so the Dodgers have been a little lucky to have that record. On the other hand, the Pirates have been outscored (106 scored, 115 allowed) over the past 30 days, so maybe both teams have had some fortune on their side.

What's Going Right? Dodgers starters, led by Kershaw and Zack Greinke, have a 2.43 ERA over the past 30 days, the best in the league. They have the second-highest strikeout rate, the third-lowest walk rate, the highest rate of ground balls and soft contact allowed and the lowest rate of hard contact allowed. They've allowed just five home runs over the past 30 days; no other team's allowed fewer than ten.  starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. On offense, the Dodgers have been OK (sixth in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage over the past 30 days). Nothing really stands out other than the lack of larceny, with only five stolen bases over the past 30 days, fewest in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The relievers have been as bad as the starters have been good. The bullpen ERA over the past 30 days is 5.83, more than 1.2 runs worse than the next-worse team. They've struck out a lot of batters and they don't walk an excessive number, but they've given up more homers than any other bullpen (13, eight more than the starters in about 60% fewer innings), they don't induce grounders (lowest ground ball rate in the league), and while they can pitch to the strike zone (third-highest pitched strike rate in the league), they're not fooling batters, who've swung at only 29% of their pitches outside the strike zone, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? The Dodgers offense has been led by two hitters over the past 30 days: First baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.305/.387/.537 slash line) and catcher Yasmani Grandal (.382/.460/.527). Over the last 30 days, Kershaw has given up no runs, one walk, and 16 hits over 34 innings while striking out 45. A bunch of starters that the Pirates won't face (Greinke, Brett Anderson, and the recently-demoted Mike Bolsinger) have also done well over the last 30 days. Of the starters they'll face, Latos, who pitched well in his first start for the Dodgers, has a 1.89 ERA over the past 30 days. Wood, who had a rocky first start, is at 4.85. He had a 3.17 ERA through the end of June, 5.06 since. In the bullpen, Pedro Baez has a 1.86 ERA over the last 30 days. 

Who's Not? The team's two most-watched young batters are right fielder Yasiel Puig and All-Star rookie center fielder Joc Pederson. Both have slumped over the last 30 days, with Puig hitting .200/.244/.400 and Pederson, who's struck out in a third of his plate appearances, .177/.286/.266. I noted Baez's nice relief ERA; he's the only Dodgers reliever with more than two innings pitched over the past 30 days with an ERA below 4.26. Closer Kenley Jansen has six saves in nine appearances and 16 strikeouts in just eight innings, but he's also given up three homers--that's as many as the three starters the Pirates will face have given up combined over the same period--and has a 5.63 ERA. 

What's the Outlook? Well, it's pretty obvious: To beat the Dodgers, you have to get to their bullpen. The problem is, to do that, you have to get by their starters. That's always going to be a challenge when Kershaw's on the mound. The Pirates' outlook improves after tomorrow night's game.

The Dodgers' Right-Handed Hitters

The Dodgers last year had eight batters accumulate 350 or more plate appearances in 2014. Half of them batted left. Here are the four right-handed batters:

Pos	Name	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
OF	Yasiel Puig	23	148	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	11	7	67	124	.296	.382	.480	.863
OF	Matt Kemp	29	150	541	77	155	38	3	25	89	8	5	52	145	.287	.346	.506	.852
SS	Hanley Ramirez	30	128	449	64	127	35	0	13	71	14	5	56	84	.283	.369	.448	.817
3B	Juan Uribe	35	103	386	36	120	23	0	9	54	0	1	15	77	.311	.337	.440	.777

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 12/13/2014.

Two of them are no longer Dodgers. Hanley Ramirez, as I wrote, signed a free agent contract with the Red Sox. And this week, the Dodgers traded Matt Kemp to the Padres.

I thought there was a pretty stark difference of opinion regarding the two departures. Ramirez, a lot of folks seemed to feel, was not worth the four-year, $88 million contract that the Red Sox gave him. The departure of Kemp (along with backup catcher Tim Federowicz and $32 million to offset some of the $107 million due Kemp over the next five seasons) to San Diego (for catcher Yasmani Grandal, starting pitcher Joe Wieland, and minor league pitcher Zach Eflin) has been less well-received. That's partly because of the players the Dodgers got in return: Grandal, 26, is solid but not a star; Wieland, who turns 25 next month, has pitched only 39 innings in the majors; and Eflin, 20, is well-regarded but hasn't pitched above Class A. It's also partly because of Kemp's status as one of the Dodgers' stars. He was runner-up to Ryan Braun in the MVP race in 2011, and was arguably jobbed out of the award given Braun's later admission that he was using PEDs. Kemp hasn't approached his numbers from that season (39 HR, 115 R, 126 RBI, .399 on base percentage, .586 slugging percentage) before or since, but he was second on the Dodgers in doubles, home runs, and RBI last year, and led the club in slugging percentage.

I'm going to do a review of all the player moves over the past week or so in a separate post, but I wanted to focus here on the comparison to Ramirez. Those who weren't heartbroken to see Ramirez go to Boston focused on two aspects: Defense and durability. Ramirez was never a very good shortstop--the Red Sox are going to move him to left field--and he played only 214 of the Dodgers' 324 games in his two full seasons with the club, missing time due to a variety of injuries. 

Let's handle the second issue first, since it's easier to illustrate. Here are games played, by age, for Ramirez and Kemp over their careers:

Disregard Kemp's first couple years, when he spent a lot of his time in the minors. Do you see a whole lot of difference there? I don't. I see two extremely durable players through their mid-20s who started missing significant chunks of time thereafter. Does Kemp's 150 games played last year mean he's back to full-time status? Maybe, but maybe it's like Ramirez's 157 games played in 2012. I don't see enough here to convince me that the Padres have acquired a player who won't miss 30 or more games per year.

As for defense, both players grade out pretty badly using modern fielding metrics. Kemp's defenders will say that's nonsense; he's won two Gold Gloves! Or, as Torii Hunter said, regarding his poor defensive numbers, "whoever believes in that sabermetric stuff never played the game."

I should come up with a better term than "modern fielding metrics," because it sounds like a bunch of comp sci geeks coming up with an algorithm using all sorts of arcane numbers rather than "the eye test"--people actually watching the games. The thing is, the modern numbers to which I refer, which do have sort of esoteric names (Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved) aren't the product of differential calculus and quadratic equations. Rather, they're based on the most thorough eye test imaginable--baseball experts (scouts, coaches, former players) watching every single play to determine which plays are good and which ones aren't. This classic article, by Bill James comparing shortstops Derek Jeter and Adam Everett, explains it thoroughly. Key excerpt:

John’s [Dewan, who designed the Defensive Runs Saved measure] henchmen at Baseball Info Solutions [Dewan's company] had watched video from every major league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit (the vector) the type of hit (groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, mob hit, etc.) and by how hard the ball was hit (softly hit, medium, hard hit). Given every vector and every type of hit, they assigned a percentage probability that the ball would result in an out, and then they had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs.

So when somebody like me says that defensive metrics say that Kemp's a bad center fielder, what we mean is that guys who watch every single play have documented that Kemp doesn't make plays that other center fielders make. It's not a formula; it's basically the ultimate eye test. Kemp's numbers have been bad for years. So have Ramirez's. Why Kemp has a reputation for being good while Ramirez has one for being bad, I can't tell you. But I can tell you that one has a deserved reputation and the other doesn't.

So the reasons cited for why Dodger fans shouldn't feel bad that Hanley Ramirez left the team--Ramirez is a bad fielder who can't stay in the lineup--should really apply to Kemp as well. And while the Dodgers got nothing but a second-round Red Sox draft pick in return for Ramirez, the Dodgers got three active players for Kemp. Grandal ranked tenth in park-adjusted OPS among 33 catchers with 75 or more games caught.  Wieland struck out 36 and walked only six in 38.2 innings across three minor league levels this year as he came back from Tommy John surgery. Eflin's a 2012 first round draft pick. Kemp could contribute more to the Padres in 2015 than Grandal, Wieland, and Eflin will to the Dodgers, but that balance could easily shift in 2016 or soon thereafter.

Look, I'm not saying Kemp and Ramirez are equivalent. Kemp's a year younger, and I think his 150 games played in 2014 is more encouraging than Ramirez's 157 games played in 2012. Kemp should be an adequate fielder in left or right, while Ramirez is going to have a learn a new position in possibly the most idiosyncratic left field in baseball. But I don't see how one guy's departure is ho-hum and the other's a disaster. I'd put them both more in the middle.

Cuban Ballplayers' Names: Y Do You Ask?

In 2014 there were 13 Cuban-born players who appeared in 50 or more major league games. They are:

Player	G	Age	Tm	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
Alexei Ramirez	158	32	CHW	657	622	82	170	35	2	15	74	24	81	21	4	.273	.305	.408	.713	SS
Leonys Martin	155	26	TEX	583	533	68	146	13	7	7	40	39	114	31	12	.274	.325	.364	.689	CF
Yoenis Cespedes	152	28	TOT	645	600	89	156	36	6	22	100	35	128	7	2	.260	.301	.450	.751	LF
Yasiel Puig	148	23	LAD	640	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	67	124	11	7	.296	.382	.480	.863	RF
Adeiny Hechavarria	146	25	MIA	574	536	53	148	20	10	1	34	26	86	7	5	.276	.308	.356	.664	SS
Jose Abreu	145	27	CHW	622	556	80	176	35	2	36	107	51	131	3	1	.317	.383	.581	.964	1B
Dayan Viciedo	145	25	CHW	563	523	65	121	22	3	21	58	32	122	0	1	.231	.281	.405	.686	RF
Yunel Escobar	137	31	TBR	529	476	33	123	18	0	7	39	43	60	1	1	.258	.324	.340	.664	SS
Yasmani Grandal	128	25	SDP	443	377	47	85	19	1	15	49	58	115	3	0	.225	.327	.401	.728	C
Brayan Pena	115	32	CIN	372	348	23	88	18	1	5	26	20	42	2	3	.253	.291	.353	.645	1B/C
Kendrys Morales	98	31	MIN/SEA	401	367	28	80	20	0	8	42	27	68	0	0	.218	.274	.338	.612	DH
Yonder Alonso	84	27	SDP	288	267	27	64	19	1	7	27	17	36	6	1	.240	.285	.397	.682	1B
Aroldis Chapman	54	26	CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					RP

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/28/2014.

Of them, you'll note, over a third have first names starting with the letter Y. Those ranks will increase in 2015, as the Diamondbacks signed Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million contract this week. That'll make six Cuban players with a first name starting with Y. In 2014, the only players appearing in 50+ games with a first name starting in Y that were not Cuban were Mariners reliever Yoervis Medina, Yankees/Padres third baseman Yangervis Solarte (both from Venezuela), Indians catcher Yan Gomes (Brazil), and Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (Puerto Rico). 

It turns out there's a reason. As this article explains, 

...the preponderance of names starting with the letter Y may reflect the contact Cubans had with Russian advisers sporting names like Yuri and Yevgeny in the years when the Soviet Union was bankrolling Castro's revolution.

That probably explains the Y-names for Medina and Solarte, both hailing from socialist Venezuela. That's also why the Cuban player who saw the most playing time this season, Alexei Ramirez, has a name you'd associate more with Russian than with a Spanish-speaking island.

So there you have it. Cuban ballplayers have first names starting with the letter Y because their parents wanted to pay homage to the USSR.

Sorry, that's all I've got for now. You'll have to find something else to read while you're standing in the checkout line at Target.