Next Up: The New York Mets

Two things about the series with the Cardinals: First, this excellent article by Grantland's Ben Lindgergh describing how the Cards, while admittedly a very good team, have also been lucky. Second, hate to be the voice of doom, but if the Cardinals play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll finish 97-65. If the Pirates area going to overtake them, the Bucs need to go 32-18 the rest of the way. That's a .640 winning percentage. That's a really tall order, given that only one major league team--the Cardinals, of course--have been able to sustain that level of success.

With that behind them, the Pirates now move on from playing the best-pitching team in the National League on the road, playing the the second-best pitching team in the National League, the New York Mets, on the road.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Mets are 16-10 over the last 30 days, the fourth-best record in the National League. They've scored 4.7 runs per game, tying the Diamondbacks over the past 30 days, while giving up 3. 4 runs per game, the second-fewest. Those are all solid numbers. Their record's well-deserved. More recently, they've won 11 of 13, moving into first in the National League East, and becoming the "it" team in New York.

What's Going Right? The Mets starters have a 2.83 ERA over the last 30 days, the second best in the National League. They've struck out the batters the fifth most frequently, been the stingiest at allowing walks, allowed the third-lowest rate of hard contact. Opposing batters have made contact on only 73% of their swings against Mets relievers, resulting in the highest rate of soft contact and the fourth lowest rate of hard contact over the period. 

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been just okay. Over the last 30 days, the Mets are eighth in the 15-team National League in batting average (.252), eighth in on base percentage (.317), and seventh in slugging percentage (.408). They've walked at the fifth-highest rate, but their eight stolen bases are last in the league.

Who's Hot? The offense has been carried over the past 30 days by first baseman Lucas Duda (team-leading nine homers, .640 slugging percentage, but out with a sore back) and right fielder Curtis Granderson (team-leading 20 runs scored and 20 driven in, .291/.373/.553 slash line). Saturday's starting pitcher, Jon Niese, has a 2.93 ERA over the past 30 days, and Sunday's starter, Matt Harvey, has been nearly unhittable, with a 1.23 ERA and .162 batting average over the period. 

Who's Not? The Mets traded for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to fill in for the injured David Wright at third, and they've combined for a .207 batting average and .263 on base percentage. Bartolo Colon, Friday's starter, is the only Mets starter with an ERA above 3.00 over the past 30 days. His 5.93 isn't close. Closer Jeurys Familia has a 4.38 ERA and nearly as many blown saves (three) as saves (five) over the period.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates don't have the meat of their pitching rotation (J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke) against the Mets. So the offense, which has scored 5.0 runs per game over the last 30 days, second in the league, will have to keep it going in order to overcome the Mets' starters.

The Dodgers' Right-Handed Hitters

The Dodgers last year had eight batters accumulate 350 or more plate appearances in 2014. Half of them batted left. Here are the four right-handed batters:

Pos	Name	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
OF	Yasiel Puig	23	148	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	11	7	67	124	.296	.382	.480	.863
OF	Matt Kemp	29	150	541	77	155	38	3	25	89	8	5	52	145	.287	.346	.506	.852
SS	Hanley Ramirez	30	128	449	64	127	35	0	13	71	14	5	56	84	.283	.369	.448	.817
3B	Juan Uribe	35	103	386	36	120	23	0	9	54	0	1	15	77	.311	.337	.440	.777

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 12/13/2014.

Two of them are no longer Dodgers. Hanley Ramirez, as I wrote, signed a free agent contract with the Red Sox. And this week, the Dodgers traded Matt Kemp to the Padres.

I thought there was a pretty stark difference of opinion regarding the two departures. Ramirez, a lot of folks seemed to feel, was not worth the four-year, $88 million contract that the Red Sox gave him. The departure of Kemp (along with backup catcher Tim Federowicz and $32 million to offset some of the $107 million due Kemp over the next five seasons) to San Diego (for catcher Yasmani Grandal, starting pitcher Joe Wieland, and minor league pitcher Zach Eflin) has been less well-received. That's partly because of the players the Dodgers got in return: Grandal, 26, is solid but not a star; Wieland, who turns 25 next month, has pitched only 39 innings in the majors; and Eflin, 20, is well-regarded but hasn't pitched above Class A. It's also partly because of Kemp's status as one of the Dodgers' stars. He was runner-up to Ryan Braun in the MVP race in 2011, and was arguably jobbed out of the award given Braun's later admission that he was using PEDs. Kemp hasn't approached his numbers from that season (39 HR, 115 R, 126 RBI, .399 on base percentage, .586 slugging percentage) before or since, but he was second on the Dodgers in doubles, home runs, and RBI last year, and led the club in slugging percentage.

I'm going to do a review of all the player moves over the past week or so in a separate post, but I wanted to focus here on the comparison to Ramirez. Those who weren't heartbroken to see Ramirez go to Boston focused on two aspects: Defense and durability. Ramirez was never a very good shortstop--the Red Sox are going to move him to left field--and he played only 214 of the Dodgers' 324 games in his two full seasons with the club, missing time due to a variety of injuries. 

Let's handle the second issue first, since it's easier to illustrate. Here are games played, by age, for Ramirez and Kemp over their careers:

Disregard Kemp's first couple years, when he spent a lot of his time in the minors. Do you see a whole lot of difference there? I don't. I see two extremely durable players through their mid-20s who started missing significant chunks of time thereafter. Does Kemp's 150 games played last year mean he's back to full-time status? Maybe, but maybe it's like Ramirez's 157 games played in 2012. I don't see enough here to convince me that the Padres have acquired a player who won't miss 30 or more games per year.

As for defense, both players grade out pretty badly using modern fielding metrics. Kemp's defenders will say that's nonsense; he's won two Gold Gloves! Or, as Torii Hunter said, regarding his poor defensive numbers, "whoever believes in that sabermetric stuff never played the game."

I should come up with a better term than "modern fielding metrics," because it sounds like a bunch of comp sci geeks coming up with an algorithm using all sorts of arcane numbers rather than "the eye test"--people actually watching the games. The thing is, the modern numbers to which I refer, which do have sort of esoteric names (Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved) aren't the product of differential calculus and quadratic equations. Rather, they're based on the most thorough eye test imaginable--baseball experts (scouts, coaches, former players) watching every single play to determine which plays are good and which ones aren't. This classic article, by Bill James comparing shortstops Derek Jeter and Adam Everett, explains it thoroughly. Key excerpt:

John’s [Dewan, who designed the Defensive Runs Saved measure] henchmen at Baseball Info Solutions [Dewan's company] had watched video from every major league game, and had recorded every ball off the bat by the direction in which it was hit (the vector) the type of hit (groundball, flyball, line-drive, popup, mob hit, etc.) and by how hard the ball was hit (softly hit, medium, hard hit). Given every vector and every type of hit, they assigned a percentage probability that the ball would result in an out, and then they had analyzed the outcomes to determine who was best at turning hit balls into outs.

So when somebody like me says that defensive metrics say that Kemp's a bad center fielder, what we mean is that guys who watch every single play have documented that Kemp doesn't make plays that other center fielders make. It's not a formula; it's basically the ultimate eye test. Kemp's numbers have been bad for years. So have Ramirez's. Why Kemp has a reputation for being good while Ramirez has one for being bad, I can't tell you. But I can tell you that one has a deserved reputation and the other doesn't.

So the reasons cited for why Dodger fans shouldn't feel bad that Hanley Ramirez left the team--Ramirez is a bad fielder who can't stay in the lineup--should really apply to Kemp as well. And while the Dodgers got nothing but a second-round Red Sox draft pick in return for Ramirez, the Dodgers got three active players for Kemp. Grandal ranked tenth in park-adjusted OPS among 33 catchers with 75 or more games caught.  Wieland struck out 36 and walked only six in 38.2 innings across three minor league levels this year as he came back from Tommy John surgery. Eflin's a 2012 first round draft pick. Kemp could contribute more to the Padres in 2015 than Grandal, Wieland, and Eflin will to the Dodgers, but that balance could easily shift in 2016 or soon thereafter.

Look, I'm not saying Kemp and Ramirez are equivalent. Kemp's a year younger, and I think his 150 games played in 2014 is more encouraging than Ramirez's 157 games played in 2012. Kemp should be an adequate fielder in left or right, while Ramirez is going to have a learn a new position in possibly the most idiosyncratic left field in baseball. But I don't see how one guy's departure is ho-hum and the other's a disaster. I'd put them both more in the middle.

Flyover: Los Angeles Dodgers

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. The National League West is the only divisional race I haven't discussed so far. Let's change that, starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

How Are They Doing Lately? Their 16-10 record over the past 30 days is the third best in the league and half a game ahead of their divisional rivals, the San Francisco Giants. They've scored the most runs in the National League, 5.7 runs per game, by a wide margin; the Giants are second with 5.0. However, they've given up 4.5 per game, the third most in the league. At 88-67 entering play today, the Dodgers have assured themselves a playoff berth, and any combination of five Dodgers wins and/or Giants losses will give them the NL West crown. They're two games behind Washington and a game ahead of St. Louis in the race for the best record in the league (and home field advantage throughout the playoffs). 

What's Going Right? The Dodgers are first in the league in batting average (.296) and on base percentage (.359) and third in slugging percentage (.454) over the past 30 days, while the league's averaging .253/.314/.386. The pitchers have been pretty middling, seventh in the league in ERA. They have the sixth-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest walk rate, but they're third to last in strand rate, as 31% of baserunners have come around to score. They've had good control, as LA's one of four pitching staffs in the National League with over half of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days.

What's Going Wrong? Those offensive stats are a little bit of an illusion. The Dodgers have benefited from a .356 batting average on balls in play, by far the best in the league, which is averaging .302 over the past 30 days, and they've gotten home runs on 15% of fly balls, while the league's averaging less than 10%. Neither of those sorts of deviations are usually sustainable; the Dodgers were at .309 and 9.5%, respectively, in the first half of the year. So while they've been hitting like crazy, they're not likely to keep it up. The pitchers are third-worst in the league at inducing swings outside the strike zone, at 30%, and as a result opposing hitters are making contact on 80% of swings, which is above average. 

The Dodgers have also had a pretty easy schedule. Over the past 30 days, entering play today, they've had five games against the worst team in the league (Arizona), three against the second-worst (Colorado), three against the third-worst (Chicago), and six against the sixth-worst (San Diego). They've had only six games against teams with winning records, San Francisco and Washington, and they split them. So there's plenty of reason to take that 16-10 record over the past 30 days with a grain of salt.

Who's Hot? Most Dodgers batters have been swinging the bat well of late. Over the past 30 days, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is leading the league in home runs (eight) and RBI (28), and he's second in runs (21) and slugging percentage (.614). Juan Uribe and Justin Turner have been a formidable tag team at third, with a combined .395/.429/.463 slash line over the past 30 days. Left fielder Carl Crawford's batting .379, right fielder Matt Kemp is batting .310 with seven homers and a .610 slugging percentage, second baseman Dee Gordon's batting .327 while shortstop Hanley Ramirez is at .305. That's six of eight lineup positions where the Dodgers have a .300+ batting average over the last 30 days. 

Three starting pitchers--Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren, and Zach Greinke--have been almost unbeatable, combining for an 11-1 won-lost record and a 2.40 ERA. Setup man Pedro Baez has a 1.46 ERA over the past 30 days, the only reliever with over eight innings pitched with an ERA below 3.00. 


Who's Not? Much has made of center fielder Yasiel Puig's slump, as he's gone from batting .309 with twelve homers prior to the All-Star break to .283 with three homers since. He was particularly bad in August, when he hit .216 with no homers. He's come alive some in September (.313 with two homers entering play today), and over the past 30 days his slash line is .250/.365/.375 compared to .253/.314/.386 for the league as a whole--not great, but not much different from the league average.

After Kershaw, Haren, and Greinke, the rotation's been a mess. The No. 4 starter, Hyun-Jin Ryu is hurt, and the other three starters the Dodgers have tried (Roberto Hernandez, Carlos Frias, Kevin Correia) have a combined ERA of 7.92. 

What's the Outlook? The Dodgers should win their division, but they're not as good a team, it seems to me, as their recent record would suggest. As things stand now, they'd play the Cardinals, another team that I've described as good but flawed, in a divisional series. The Dodgers' top three starters may give them the edge, but the Cardinals can pitch as well. It could make for an interesting series.

Uh, Really, AJ?

Juan Uribe has had an interesting four years. In 2010, he was the world champion Giants' primary shortstop, playing 148 games and batting .248 (.310 on-base, .440 slugging) with 24 homers and 84 RBI. He then signed a three-year, $21 million contract to be the Dodgers' third baseman. Over the next two years, he played 143 games, batting .191 with a .262 on-base percentage and .289 slugging percentage. He hit 6 homers and drove in 45 runs. His on-base plus slugging (OPS) of .552 was the third-worst in the majors among players with 450 or more plate appearances in 2011-2012:

Player	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
Chone Figgins	.502	147	454	42	84	16	3	3	26	40	90	9	15	7	.185	.249	.253
Paul Janish	.515	169	503	45	103	20	2	0	32	35	76	8	4	2	.205	.262	.252
Juan Uribe	.552	143	432	36	86	21	0	6	45	30	97	18	2	1	.199	.262	.289
Jeff Mathis	.557	164	458	43	89	25	0	11	49	24	143	5	2	2	.194	.236	.321
Wilson Valdez	.564	176	467	54	108	18	4	1	45	26	77	17	6	4	.231	.270	.293
Orlando Cabrera	.573	130	450	39	107	16	0	5	51	17	57	12	8	4	.238	.267	.307
Jason Bartlett	.591	168	637	69	147	27	3	2	44	60	125	19	23	10	.231	.299	.292
Franklin Gutierrez	.596	132	472	44	111	23	1	5	36	25	87	11	16	3	.235	.276	.320
Brendan Ryan	.598	264	843	93	187	38	6	6	70	78	185	11	24	8	.222	.296	.302
Brent Morel	.603	161	526	58	121	20	1	10	46	29	96	11	9	5	.230	.274	.329

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/8/2013.

This year, he had an unexpected resurgence, batting .278 and slugging .438 with a career-high .331 on-base percentage. He hit 12 homers, scored 47 runs and drove in 50 over 132 games. He also played solid defense at third. Last night he got his biggest hit of the year. a two-run eighth inning home run that sealed a 4-3 series-clinching victory for the Dodgers.

No question, it was a dramatic turnaround for the 34-year old Uribe. Interviewed after the game, his teammate, catcher AJ Ellis, as heard this morning on SiriusXM, extolled Uribe's hitting and declared him "the best defensive third baseman in the majors."

Those of you watch games at the corner of West Camden and South Eutaw: I hear ya.