Let's Go Mets

In case you missed it, last night's Mets-Dodgers game was marred by a nasty play in the seventh inning. In a move that Pirates fans will find depressingly reminiscent of the season-ending injury to Bucs shortstop Jung Ho Kang, the Dodgers' Chase Utley, running from first on a ground ball, tried to break up a double play by barreling into Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada, not starting his "slide" until he was nearly past second base, well to the right of the bag, breaking Tejada's leg. If you want to see the play, it's all over the Internet. I'm not going to link to it here. As the owner of precisely zero healthy knees, I tend to turn away when it comes to leg injuries.

Utley's slide--like that of the Cubs' Chris Coghlan into Kang--was fairly clearly legal under baseball rules. The question is whether it should be. People say, "it's part of baseball," but that's not a compelling justification. Hitting a baserunner with a thrown ball in order to put him out used to be part of baseball. Spitballs used to be part of baseball. Home plate collisions used to be part of baseball. Baseball's gotten rid of of these. The NCAA requires players to slide on the ground--not perform rolling blocks aimed at the fielder's knee--and only along a straight line between the bases (Coghlin was well to the outfield side of second when he hit Kang, Utley less so), and baseball's survived.

Several smart commentators--Grant Brisbee of SB Nation and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, to name two--already have pieces up calling for changing the rule on takeout slides. Such a rule change will undoubtedly lead to howls of protest. Remember that this is the same mindset that predicted myriad problems and threatened a boycott when the rules were changed to make players stop leaving their gloves on the field between innings. Tradition dies hard, but sometimes it really does need to die.

I really had no rooting interest in this series. After last night, though, let's go Mets.

Will Walker Walk?

On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Pirates beat writer Rob Biertempfel had an article about Pirates second baseman Neil Walker entitled, "Despite Hometown Ties, Walker Knows Time with Pirates Likely Nearing End." Biertempfel pointed out that:

• Walker is eligible for salary arbitration next year, and can be a free agent after next season.
• He's making $8 million this year, and could probably expect to earn $10 million next year.
• He's 30 years old and has had back problems in the past.
• Josh Harrison has played primarily second base since returning from the disabled list in August, and started the first two games of the recent Cardinals series there instead of Walker.
• Given that writing on the wall and Walker's looming free agency, "it's possible the Pirates will jump that deadline this offseason by non-tendering or trading him."

A couple comments: First, it's true that Harrison started instead of Walker on September 4 and 5 against St. Louis , but Walker had had only one day off since the All-Star break prior to the first game, and was batting just .206 with two extra-base hits (both doubles) in his last 13 games. In the second game, the starter was Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia, and Walker is hitting just .239 with a .584 OPS against lefties this year, while Harrison's numbers against southpaws are a .289 batting average and .717 OPS. As I pointed out earlier, a platoon of Walker and Harrison at second base makes a lot of sense. Walker's already played more games this year than any season since 2011, so he's not exactly getting phased out. Second, non-tendering means not offering a player a contract--in effect, releasing him. I don't see any way that the Pirates would non-tender Walker; that's what you do with filler-type guys who have no role with your club and don't have a lot of value to other clubs. Trading him, though, that's another story.

That prompted another Tribune-Review writer, Rob Rossi, to opine "What A Joke It Would Be If the Pirates Let Walker Go." His argument: Walker, a Pittsburgh native, is not only one of the best second basemen in the game, but he's also a key member of the franchise and the community, and the Pirates should do what it takes to keep him. He suggests four years, $46 million. 

I've given you the link to Rossi's article, so you can see what you think of it. (Not relevant to anything here, but Rossi wrote, "Walker might be the Pirates' best second baseman since Bill Mazeroski." Um, Johnny Ray says hello.) I want to focus on his idea of a four year, $46 million contact.

First, let's take a look at the Pirates who can become free agents in the next few seasons. I'm going to list them by year and their age at the start of their free agency seasons:

• 2016: Pitcher Anthony Bastardo (30), infielder Sean Rodriguez (30), pitcher Joakim Soria (31), pitcher J.A. Happ (33), first baseman Corey Hart (34). (I'm assuming A.J. Burnett and Aramis Ramirez stick to their guns and retire.)
• 2017: Outfielder Travis Snider (29), first baseman Pedro Alvarez (30), catcher Francisco Cervelli (31), Walker (31), pitcher Mark Melancon (32), first baseman Travis Ishikawa (33), catcher Chris Stewart (35), first baseman Mike Morse (35)
• 2018: Pitcher Tony Watson (33), pitcher Francisco Liriano (34), pitcher Charlie Morton (34).

You figure the Pirates are going to want to keep some of those guys, right? Rodriguez and Happ out of next year's class, Cervelli and maybe Melancon the following year, possibly all three of the 2018 pitchers, if they're healthy. Now, I don't care how much a player makes, nor how much a multimillionaire spends on his team. You can make an argument that a player like Andrew McCutchen is worth $30 million per year, and if he makes that, more power to him; if Pirates owner Bob Nutting spends that much, it's not my money. But the Pirates have to have some sort of budget, I figure, and that budget will limit how much they can spend on players. Paying a lot of money for a player is relevant only if it prevents a team from being able to afford other players.

So does spending $46 million for four years of Walker make sense? Without even looking at the dollars, let's look at age. Walker will be 30 at the start of next year, so the Pirates would be signing him for his age 30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons. Walker's a good-hitting second baseman--above-average park-adjusted OPS every year he's been in the majors--whose bat carries his adequate glove. How realistic is it to expect him to stay in the lineup and keep up his above-average hitting in his thirties?

To answer this, I looked at every second baseman who qualified for the batting championship since 2000. Here are the regular (defined as 75% of their games played at second) second baseman with an above-average OPS in their 30s:

• Age 30: Ronnie Belliard, Robinson Cano, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Tadahito Iguchi, Howie Kendrick, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Phillips, Brian Roberts, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist (12 total)
• Age 31: Robinson Cano, Orlando Hudson, Ian Kinsler, Mark Loretta, Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley (8 total)
• Age 32: Roberto Alomar, Bret Boone, Robinson Cano, Ray Durham, Jeff Kent, Mark Loretta, Placido Polanco, Ben Zobrist (8 total)
• Age 33: Roberto Alomar, Bret Boone, Ray Durham, Mark Grudzielanek, Jeff Kent, Ian Kinsler (6 total)

In the past 16 seasons, no regular second baseman who's been in the lineup enough to qualify for the batting title has been an above-average hitter every year between ages 30 and 33. Robinson Cano, who's 32, is three quarters of the way there, but he's the only second baseman to appear on the list three times. In other words, he is the only regular second baseman in this century to have been an above-average hitter in more than half of the four years between age 30 and 33. Chase Utley put up consistently good numbers, but he missed 47 games when he was 31, 59 when he was 32, and 79 when he was 33, so qualified for the batting title only twice. Ben Zobrist was an above-average hitter who qualified for the batting title every year but he played only 58 games at second when he was 31 and 79 games there when he was 33. The combination of staying healthy and staying good, it seems, starts and ends with one second baseman, Robinson Cano, with an honorable mention to Ben Zobrist.

So does a four-year contract for a 30 year old second baseman who's good, but obviously not quite Robinson Cano, make a lot of sense, regardless of money? No, it probably doesn't. And the conviction behind that "probably" increases if the contract sucks up so much payroll money that it prevents the team from affording younger or better players. 

Look, I like Walker. He really is one of the best second basemen in the game; I'd put him in the top ten or so. But as he ages, his defense isn't going to get better, his offense is likely to decline, and he's likely to start missing time. If the Pirates can sign him to, say, three years with a hometown discount, fine. I think Harrison makes more sense as a super-utility guy than an everyday second basemen anyway. But blowing a lot of money on a lot of years of Walker seems counter-productive, his place of birth notwithstanding.

Next Up: The Los Angeles Dodgers

I wrapped up my last preview, of the Cubs series, with the line: 

This should be a fun four games.

Yeah, losing three straight, having the home-field wild card advantage slip from four games to two, and losing your best player...that was a freakin' blast.

Now the Pirates head west for three games against the NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. There's one word that foreshadows any Dodgers series this year: Kershawgreinke. Do you face the Dodgers's two aces, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, or not?  The Dodgers in games started by Kershawgreinke: 38-20 (.655 winning percentage). The Dodgers in games started by everybodye else: 46-41 (.541 winning percentage). That's the difference between a 106-56 team and an 88-74 team. Unfortunately, the Pirates go against Greinke tonight and Kershaw tomorrow night, meaning that over the course of four days, they'll see the three contenders for the National League Cy Young Award (they faced the Cubs' Jake Arrieta on Wednesday).

How Are They Doing Lately? The Dodgers are 17-9 over the past 30 days, second only to the 19-8 Mets in the National League. (Naturally, the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates, in that order, round out the top five.) They've scored just 3.85 runs per game, the third fewest in the league, but their pitchers have been by far the stingiest, allowing just 3.19 runs per game, nearly half a run per game less than the second-best Pirates. If you're thinking, "That's a pretty good won-lost record given that run differential," you're right. The Nationals, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs all have a better run differential over the past 30 days. So the Dodgers have been good, but maybe not as good as their record might suggest.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers' ERA is 2.66 over the past 30 days, way ahead of the Pirates, in second with 3.29. They have the fourth best strikeout rate, the second lowest walk rate, the highest ground ball rate, and the second-lowest rate of fly balls becoming home runs. But none of that's surprising; we all knew that with Kershawgreinke, the starters' stats would be good. The surprise is that the relievers, the team's key weakness this year, have a 3.10 ERA over the past 30 days, the third lowest in the league. The Dodger bullpen had a 4.20 ERA in June (second worst in the league) and a 6.27 ERA in July (easily the worst), so they've turned things around dramatically of late. Over the past 30 days, the bullpen has struck out 27% of the batters they've faced and walked only 6%, best and second-best in the league, respectively.

What's Going Wrong? The offense. Over the past 30 days, Dodgers hitters have a .232 batting average (last in the league), .313 on base percentage (fifth lowest), and .373 slugging percentage (second lowest). They've hit the fifth fewest homers and struck out at the sixth highest rate. 

Who's Hot? The team's only reliable hitter of late has been rookie shortstop Corey Seager, called up September 3. He's batting .426 with a .526 on base percentage and .617 slugging percentage in 13 games, sending veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins and his .194 batting average and .280 on base percentage over the past 30 days to the bench. The three best Dodgers starters over the past 30 days are Kershaw (1.15 ERA, 52 strikeouts and six walks in 39 innings), Greinke (1.78 ERA, 32 strikeouts and five walks in 35.1 innings), and Brett Anderson (2.76 ERA). The three starters the Pirates will face are, in order, Greinke, Kershaw, and Anderson. In the resurgent Dodger bullpen, closer Kenley Jansen has 8 saves and a 2.57 ERA, with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings, over the past 30 days, and setup man Chris Hatcher has a 1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 13.1 innings.

Who's Not? Rollins, as discussed above, is cold and benched. Catcher Yasmani Grandal is 1-for-53--one single, so that's an .047 batting average and slugging percentage--over the past 30 days. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez has a .229/.312/.365 slash line. Third baseman Justin Turner's is .207/.333/.287. Second baseman Chase Utley's is .224/.305/.388. With right fielder/lightning rod Yasiel Puig hurt, the four main outfielders are Andre Ethier, who's been OK (.314/.345/.451) and three players--Scott Van Slyke, Joc Peterson, and Carl Crawford--who've combined for .224/.303/.355.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates swept three from the Dodgers when the teams met in Pittsburgh in early August. In the first game, Kershaw gave up four runs in six innings (his ERA in seven starts since is 1.00) as the Pirates won in ten. In the second game, the Pirates scored six runs in three innings off Mat Latos (no longer with the team) and held on to win 6-5. In the third game, the team exploded for nine runs in the seventh inning, erasing a 5-3 deficit and winning, 13-6. Reliever Jim Johnson, who took the loss in the first and third games (allowing eight runs in two-thirds on an inning in the latter), has four holds and a save in 14 games since. Jung Ho Kang was 4-for-11 with a home run and 4 RBI in the series. In other words, if the Pirates are going to enjoy similar success at Dodger Stadium, the script will have to change, because it's not going to repeat itself. In the meantime, the team will hope for mutual destruction this weekend when the Cardinals play three in Wrigley against the Cubs.

Odds and Ends - May 12

• Blogging will be light this week, as I'm on the road much of the week and my computer will be in the shop part of the time as well.
• The Pirates' Jung Ho Kang, with 21 major league games under his belt, now ranks No. 13 among native South Koreans in major league games played. The all-time leader is the Rangers' Shin-Soo Choo, with 1,003 and counting. Next up are Jae Kuk Ryu, a pitcher for three teams in 2006-8, who appeared in 28 games, and then Dae-Sung Koo, who pitched in 33 games for the Mets in 2005. I don't remember Dae-Sung Koo. Fortunately, the talented Jon Bois from Sports on Earth does. The video runs about ten minutes and is worth the time. 
• Over at Just A Bit Outside, David Golebiewski has a fun set of graphs on the Pirates' offensive struggles.
• A day late, but here's a Next Up on the Philadelphia Phillies.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Phillies' 8-20 record is a .286 winning percentage, the worst in baseball. The Pirates have gone from a series against the hottest team in baseball, the Cardinals, to one against the coldest team in the sport.

What's Going Right? In the 15-team National League, the Phillies' relievers have a 2.92 ERA, fourth best in the league over the past 30 days. Considering that their starting pitchers (keep reading) have forced the bullpen to throw 83.1 innings, fourth most in the league, that's pretty good.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers have a 5.34 ERA over the past 30 days, second-worst in the league. The offense is terrible. Over the past 30 days, they're second-to last in batting average (.233, barely ahead of the Brewers' .232), last in on base percentage (.285), and last in slugging percentage (.342). They've also hit only 17 homers, trailing only the Giants with 16, despite the fact that the Giants play in a pitchers' park and the Phils are in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. As a result, the team with the fourth-highest payroll in the league ($131.4 million) is only 11th in attendance (26,052 per game).

Who's Hot? This should tell you all you need to know about the Phillies' offense: Over the last 30 days, their best batter has been light-hitting shortstop Freddy Galvis, who's batting .330 with a .378 on base percentage but almost no power: 27 singles and three extra-base hits. Or how about this: Pitcher Chad Billingsley, who was last a major league regular in 2012, is tied for fifth on the club in homers (with one) over the past 30 days. On the mound, 37-year-old righty Aaron Harang has been a pleasant surprise (2.77 ERA over six starts in the past 30 days). Closer Jonathan Papelbon has a 2.00 ERA over the past 30 days and setup man Ken Giles is at 0.77.

Who's Not? One of the bet players in franchise history, second baseman Chase Utley, looks done: He's batting .125 over the past 30 days and .122 on the season. The Phils are getting almost no offensive contribution from four positions: Utley at second, Cody Asche at third, Carlos Ruiz at catcher, and the duo of Jeff Francoeur and Grady Sizemore in right. After Harang and fellow veteran/trade bait Cole Hamels, the rest of the rotation has been awful (7.14 combined ERA).

What's the Outlook? In my season preview, I identified the Phillies' chances of finishing last in the National League East as one of the five locks in baseball this season. While I'm not doing so well with my others (Nationals in first, currently second; Braves in fourth, currently third; Dodgers in first, right so far; Twins in last, currently third), the Phils have been pretty bad. And it's not like they're young and rebuilding: Their batters are fifth oldest in the league and their pitchers second oldest. Maybe they can help the Bucs' bats emerge from their long slumber.

Reality Check: Ruben Amaro

Now that we've got actual baseball games, and actual baseball people talking about other actual baseball people, I'm going to initiate a feature called "Reality Check." I'm going to take things I hear or read and test them, where I can, to see if they're true. This is not going to be a "gotcha" feature. If someone calls something correctly, I'll give credit. I remember last summer hearing Barry Larkin say on Baseball Tonight that the Seattle Mariners hit a lot of home runs. I thought, "Yeah, they pulled the fences in, but still, the Mariners aren't a home run team." Well, there's a reason Larkin does what he does and I do what I do: The Mariners wound up finishing second in the AL in homers, well behind the Orioles but in a tight grouping with Oakland and Toronto that was clearly well ahead of the rest.

Anyway, here goes. Over the weekend I heard an interview of Phillies GM Ruben Amaro on Sirius XM. I was driving, so I couldn't write down his exact quote, but the gist of it was that with free agents A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez joining the club, the Phils have two of the top ground ball pitchers in the game. He said the team (which has been notoriously hostile to statistical analysis), is going to use analytics to shift infielders around to better get all those grounders, as the Pirates did last year.

Burnett first. There were 43 NL starting pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (162 innings pitched). Of them, Burnett got grounders on 56.5% of batted balls, most in the NL. Score one for Amaro. 

Now, Hernandez. He's the guy who used to be called Fausto Carmona. Anyway, he didn't quite qualify for the ERA title with Tampa Bay last year. He pitched 151 innings. Of the 48 AL pitchers with 150+ innings, Hernandez got grounders on 53.2% of batted balls, fifth in the league. Despite all those ground balls, he managed to give up the home runs at the fourth highest rate in the league, as nearly 21% of the fly balls he allowed left the park, the highest proportion in the league. That's crazy high and isn't likely to persist, though the move to Citizens Bank Park won't help much.

Anyway, Ruben was right. By adding Burnett and Hernandez, the Phillies pitchers' ground ball percentage of 44.5% last year, tenth in the league, is going to rise. My concern about the Phillies is whether they'll embrace infield shifts enough to take advantage of all those grounders, and whether their aging infielders (shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Chase Utley are 35, first baseman Ryan Howard is 34) have the range to get at them.