What David Freese Means

This isn't really fair, but David Freese is kind of a one-hit wonder. His moment in the sun--granted, it was a big moment--was the 2011 postseason. That year, he batted .278 as the Cardinals beat the Phillies, three games to two, in the Divisional Series. In the fourth game of that series, with the Cards trailing two games to one, he came to bat in the bottom of the fourth with the Cardinals losing 2-1 and hit a double, driving in two runs and giving St. Louis the lead. In the sixth, he put the game on ice, hitting a two-run homer. He was MVP when St. Louis topped Milwaukee in six games in the Championship Series, batting .545 and slugging 1.091 with three homes and nine RBI. He was MVP of the World Series as well, batting .348 with a 1.160 OPS, remembered mostly for his game-winning home run in the eleventh inning of the wild 10-9 Cardinals victory in Game 6, enabled by his two-run, two-out triple on a 1-2 count in the last of the ninth, tying the score at seven. (Those hits erased the memory of his error in the fifth that led to a Rangers run, necessitating his extra-innings heroics.) The following night, in the Series-winning game, he got the Redbirds on the board with a two-run, two-out double on a full count in the bottom of the first, tying the score at two in a game St. Louis won 6-2. 

 

(Pirates fans will also remember that Freese hit a two-run homer off Gerrit Cole in the second inning of the last game of the 2013 Divisional Series against the Cardinals, starting St. Louis on their way to a 6-1 victory.)

 

As I said, that isn't really fair. Freese was good as a part-time player leading into the 2011 postseason (combined .298/.354/.429 slash line, a park-adjusted OPS 15% better than the league average, in 184 games spread over three seasons) and better in 2012 (.293/.372/.467, 29% better than average). He slumped to a pedestrian .262/.340/.381 in 2013, was traded to the Angels, was no better in 2014 (.260/.321/.383) before rebounding a bit last year, to .257/.323/.420. He was a late bloomer--he was 28 at the time of his postseason heroics--and he'll turn 33 at the end of April, a more or less league-average right-handed hitting third baseman who's never played more than 144 games in a season.

 

And, as of last Friday, a Pirate. The Pirates signed Freese, a free agent for the first time in his career, to a cheap one-year, $3 million deal. It represents a pay cut from what he made in 2013 ($3,150,000), 2014 ($5,050,000), and 2015 ($6,425,000). In other words, it was a very Pirates-like signing.

 

Signing David Freese says a couple things about the Pirates as they enter the season, it seems to me.

 

First, incumbent third baseman Jung Ho Kang is not going to be ready for the start of the season as he continues his recovery from last year's season-ending knee injury. I don't think anyone's surprised that Kang won't be ready for Opening Day. This deal, though, suggests to me that we may not see Kang until May, and he may be eased back into the lineup then. If Kang were to be out of action for just a few games, the Pirates would probably be content to plug Sean Rodriguez into the lineup, either at third or at second with Josh Harrison sliding over to third. Freese seems more of a weeks-long, rather than games-long, fill-in.

 

Second, the Pirates may try to move Michael Morse. GM Neal Huntington, when Freese was signed, indicated that the new Pirate will play first as well as third. With lefty-swinging John Jaso and righty Morse already set to platoon at the position, the Pirates would seem to be overstocked at first. Morse appears to be the odd man out, as he turns 34 next week, has less positional versatility (he can play outfield in the sense that Pedro Alvarez could play third base), and he arguably has more trade value than Freese. Morse has more power than Freese (.461 career slugging percentage, home runs in 3.8% of plate appearances vs. .417 and 2.5% for Freese) and, oddly, is cheaper. Morse is owed $8.5 million in 2016, the last year of a two-year, $16 million free agent contract he signed with the Marlins after the 2014 season. But the team from whom the Pirates acquired Morse, the Dodgers, are on the hook for the full amount, so the Pirates could market him as a "free" player.

 

Long term? Freese is a decent enough bench player. He's an OK third baseman, an OK right handed batter who doesn't have particularly bad platoon splits, and while he's played only 21 innings at first in the majors, he seems athletic enough to handle the position. He bolsters a somewhat thin Pittsburgh bench. But if his presence means that the Pirates are going to be without Kang for more than a few weeks, that's bad news. 

Christmas Vacation Catch-Up

I. First Base, Solved. Two days before Christmas, the Pirates signed John Jaso to a two year, $8 million contract. On the surface, this doesn't seem like a defining moment for the 2016 season. Jaso's 32. He's never played in more than 109 games in a season, and over the past three years, he's played an average of 80 games per season. Here are his stats over those years. The last column, the one I labeled POS, lists the positions at which he played, by games.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	POS
2013	29	OAK	70	249	207	31	56	12	0	3	21	2	1	38	45	.271	.387	.372	.759	114	48 C, 17 DH, 1 1B
2014	30	OAK	99	344	307	42	81	18	3	9	40	2	0	28	60	.264	.337	.430	.767	118	54 C, 35 DH
2015	31	TBR	70	216	185	23	53	17	0	5	22	1	2	28	39	.286	.380	.459	.839	132	48 DH, 8 OF

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

There are two nonintuitive things about the Jaso signing. First, he'll play first base for the Pirates. As you can see, over the past three years, he's played exactly one game at first, and that was in 2013. It also, as it happens, was for one inning. The sum total of the remainder of his experience at first base was a game in 2010 in which he played four innings there. So the Pirates signed a first baseman who's played a total of five innings there in his career.

Second, the Pirates' primary first baseman last year was Pedro Alvarez, who was not offered a contract for 2016. Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 150 games last year. Jaso has hit 27 home runs in the last four seasons combined, covering 347 games.

So the Pirates are replacing a slugging first baseman--career total 19 at bats per home run--with a guy who's pretty much never played the position, hits a homer every 43 at bats, and is four years older than the guy he's replacing.

Before I get into why I think the move makes sense, I want to point out two amusing things about the Pirates signing Jaso. First, on December 14, FanGraphs' Eno Sarris wrote a piece entitled "Finding the Pirates (Another) First Baseman," in which he previewed six first base possibilities for the Pirates, concluding:

But there’s one left-handed player left who is younger than the oldest of these options, better offensively than anyone we’ve mentioned so far, has experience playing the position, and offers the potential of a win and a half of production that would boost the Pirates to average all over the field. His name is John Jaso...He won’t cost a prospect, and he could help patch up the worst hole on the field. Plus, he’d return dreadlocks to the field in Pittsburgh, which is fun, if not valuable by traditional metrics.

In other words, Sarris totally nailed the Jaso pickup by the Bucs. Then, when the deal was announced, FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote a typically clever column  entitled "Pirates Sign John Jaso, Obviously." His smart analysis includes this gem:

He’s getting two years, and he’s getting $8 million, and if this isn’t the very most Pirates move, it’s at least in the conversation. It doesn’t get much more Pirates than this.

It's true: The Pirates finding a low-budget, nondescript solution to a problem is what they do best, whether it's Francisco Liriano, Jung Ho Kang, or Francisco Cervelli. Here's why I think Jaso will work for the Pirates.

1. Yes, Jaso's had very limited experience at first, but he spent most of his career as a catcher (repeated concussions probably make that a non-starter in Pittsburgh), and catchers often make a smooth transition to first base. Besides, replacing Alvarez at first isn't exactly a high bar defensively.
2. Look at the on base percentage line his stats. His career average is .361, and he's been above .370 in four of his six major league seasons. You know how many Pirates had an on base percentage in 2015 above .370? One: Andrew McCutchen. (Cervelli was at .370, exactly.) The Pirates had a good offense (fourth in the National League in runs scored), but as I've pointed out, a high on base percentage is highly correlated with scoring runs. Jaso will improve the team in that respect.
3. Jaso bats left. The Pirates have only one other left-handed batter in their lineup: right fielder Gregory Polanco. Compare these two batting lines:

Player	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Player A	681	616	71	142	31	1	30	88	2	1	51	191	.231	.295	.430	.725
Player B	681	594	75	162	46	2	15	67	3	5	74	139	.273	.357	.433	.790

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

Which would you rather have? Obviously, the second batter's better: Way more singles, doubles, and walks compensating for the reduction in home runs. Player A is the Pirates first basemen in 2015. Player B is a hybrid, assuming a platoon of Jaso and Michael Morse. I assumed that the Pirates face, as they did in 2015, about 75% right-handed pitchers and 25% lefties, and I combined Jaso's performance last year against righties (weighted 75%) and Morse's against lefties (weighted 25%). Now, line B is probably overstated, as the Pirates will have batters other than Jaso and Morse get some at bats, and each of them will face a relief pitcher against whom they'll have a platoon disadvantage from time to time. But there's reason to believe that the Jaso/Morse platoon will outperform the Alvarez/Morse/Sean Rodriguez combination of 2015. And that's looking just at offense, not defense.

Finally, Josh Bell is one of the Pirates' top farmhands (ranked No. 34 in baseball before the 2015 season by mlb.com) and the team's first baseman of the future, but he's still raw. He's played only 35 games at AAA, and 2015 was his first season at first base. The Jaso/Morse tandem will keep the position warm as the 23-year-old gains experience in the minors. Once Bell comes up, the Pirates will have a bat to deal at the trade deadline.

II. Andrew McCutchen, Not Solved. The Pirates' best player is signed through 2017, and the club has a certain-to-be-exercised option for 2018 as well. They'll pay McCutchen $13 million in 2016, $14 million in 2017, and $14.75 million in 2018, representing one of the biggest bargains in baseball; he'd probably get twice those amounts on the open market. He turns 32 in October 2018, so the Pirates have him signed for his prime years at below-market prices.

What's wrong with that? Well, it's what happens after the 2018 season. True, he likely won't be the same player then that he is now. This year, at 28, he's showed some signs of slowing down. He batted below .300, with a slugging percentage below .500, for the first time since 2011. With just 11 stolen bases and a 69% success rate, he's really not much of a stolen base threat. He's probably the worst fielder among the Pirates' three outfielders (though, in contrast to the club's defense at first base, that's a pretty high bar). He set a career high for strikeouts in 2015.

But, of course, we're talking about Andrew McCutchen here. He's been the face of franchise that hasn't really had a face since Willie Stargell, and its best all-around player since Barry Bonds and, before him, Roberto Clemente. In an article last week at ESPN, Buster Olney wrote,

It would make sense for the Pirates to sit down with McCutchen and his representatives before the start of the 2016 season, and take their best shot at signing the center fielder to a long-term extension...
Maybe the proposal would provide a platform for talks; maybe McCutchen's side would agree, or at least be willing to haggle some. It's also possible that the Pirates' proposal, within the current context, wouldn't be close to what McCutchen would want in an extension. Maybe McCutchen would prefer to play someplace else, for more money, which is entirely his right...
The sooner there is clarity on this for the Pirates and McCutchen, the better. If McCutchen agreed to terms, then the building anxiety over his situation -- for all involved, including the fans -- would end. (And with time, the price of an extension might only become more expensive).
If the Pirates and McCutchen cannot reach a deal, then the team's leadership would know, moving forward, that his time with the franchise will end. If the Pirates fall behind the Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings next summer, the team could dangle McCutchen in the July trade market and at least begin the process of assessing what they can get in return for him. They could either move him before July 31, or swap him next winter or the winter of 2017-18, leading up to his free agency.

The idea of Neil Walker leaving Pittsburgh was controversial. Can you imagine the club dealing McCutchen? But that's the dilemma it may face: Sign your best player to a long-term extension that will almost certainly overpay him in the out years, or try to trade an asset whose value decreases with every day he moves closer to free agency after the 2018 World Series. 

Awards Rewind - The Pirates Perspective

I nailed them: predicted the winners of the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP correctly. This isn't to say that I'm smart; you may have noticed that my prediction that the Blue Jays would defeat the Dodgers in the World Series didn't quite come true. Rather, it's a reflection of how predictable the awards voting has become. And, I might add, how good it's become--I wouldn't have picked all the same winners as the BBWAA electorate, but I don't have a problem with any of the selections. So, well done, all you electors who will never read this and could care less what I think of your selections.

Incidentally, if you want to read an outstanding discussion of one voter's decision process, read this by FanGraphs' Dave Cameron explaining his National League Cy Young Award vote. 

Pirates were shut out of the awards (unless you count Starling Marte's Gold Glove) but had contenders in every category. They didn't really have a chance, though:

• Jung Ho Kang's season came to an abrupt end on September 17 when a takeout slide by the Cubs' Chris Coghlan tore Kang's knee ligaments and broke his leg. Even before then, he probably wasn't going to beat the Cubs' Kris Bryant for Rookie of the Year. Kang's slash line was .287/.355/.461. Bryant finished at .275/.369/.488 and led all rookies in homers, RBI, and runs scored.
• Clint Hurdle, who was fourth in the voting, has now managed a team with 20 straight losing seasons since its last postseason appearance to three straight postseasons (albeit via the wild card). The Pirates' 98 wins in 2015 ties the 1908, 1979, and 1991 clubs for the third most in franchise history. But Joe Maddon guided the Cubs to nearly as many wins, 97, and the team's 24-win improvement over 2014 was the greatest in the majors, topping the Rangers' 21-game move.
• Gerrit Cole emerged as the Pirates' staff ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he really wasn't in the same class (2.60 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) as the triumvirate of the Cubs' Jake Arrieta and the Dodgers' Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw (combined 1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), who were 1-2-3 in the voting. Cole was fourth.
• Here is the argument for Andrew McCutchen as National League MVP (he finished fifth): He was the best player on a team that made the postseason. Here is the argument for the Nationals' Bryce Harper, the unanimous winner: He was the best player in the National League.

The next vote up is the Hall of Fame. The rhetoric about that will be, as always, over the top. If I could vote, I'd pick the full allotment of ten candidates. Alphabetically:

• Jeff Bagwell
• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Ken Griffey, Jr.
• Edgar Martinez
• Mike Mussina
• Mike Piazza
• Tim Raines
• Curt Schilling
• Alan Trammell

A couple quick notes here: Yes, I know that Bonds and Clemens used performance-enhancing drugs. Given that I don't have Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro on my my list, I don't ignore drug use. It's just that it's fairly clear to me when in their careers they started to use them, and it's abundantly clear to me that they were Hall of Fame-worthy prior to their use. And I don't think using drugs should automatically disqualify someone; way too many players used them to make that call. Your mileage may vary on this point, of course. As for some of the others...Martinez was an absolutely devastating hitter, and if he's not a Hall of Famer because he was a designated hitter, neither is David Ortiz, and that seems silly. I think Trammell is an easy call and it's a shame that his double play partner, Lou Whitaker, is no longer eligible to be voted in. Mussina and Schilling are much easier calls for me than for the electorate, which gave them 25% and 37% of the vote, respectively, last year (the requirement for induction is 75%). Lastly, of course, there's Tim Raines...

Let's Go Mets

In case you missed it, last night's Mets-Dodgers game was marred by a nasty play in the seventh inning. In a move that Pirates fans will find depressingly reminiscent of the season-ending injury to Bucs shortstop Jung Ho Kang, the Dodgers' Chase Utley, running from first on a ground ball, tried to break up a double play by barreling into Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada, not starting his "slide" until he was nearly past second base, well to the right of the bag, breaking Tejada's leg. If you want to see the play, it's all over the Internet. I'm not going to link to it here. As the owner of precisely zero healthy knees, I tend to turn away when it comes to leg injuries.

Utley's slide--like that of the Cubs' Chris Coghlan into Kang--was fairly clearly legal under baseball rules. The question is whether it should be. People say, "it's part of baseball," but that's not a compelling justification. Hitting a baserunner with a thrown ball in order to put him out used to be part of baseball. Spitballs used to be part of baseball. Home plate collisions used to be part of baseball. Baseball's gotten rid of of these. The NCAA requires players to slide on the ground--not perform rolling blocks aimed at the fielder's knee--and only along a straight line between the bases (Coghlin was well to the outfield side of second when he hit Kang, Utley less so), and baseball's survived.

Several smart commentators--Grant Brisbee of SB Nation and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, to name two--already have pieces up calling for changing the rule on takeout slides. Such a rule change will undoubtedly lead to howls of protest. Remember that this is the same mindset that predicted myriad problems and threatened a boycott when the rules were changed to make players stop leaving their gloves on the field between innings. Tradition dies hard, but sometimes it really does need to die.

I really had no rooting interest in this series. After last night, though, let's go Mets.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Pirates have won six in a row, after having dropped four in a row (including three to the Cubs). Here's how the National League Central standings looked on the morning of September 19, before the Pirates embarked on their hot streak, taking two in Los Angeles from the Dodgers and four in Denver from the Rockies:

      St. Louis   92  55  ---
      Pittsburgh  87  60  5.0
      Chicago     86  61  6.0

And here's what a six-game winning streak buys you:

      St. Louis   97  56  ---
      Pittsburgh  93  60  4.0
      Chicago     89  63  7.5

Best record in baseball over the past week, and all it yields is one game against the division leader and one and a half over your nearest rival. The top of this division is just ridiculous.

How Are They Doing Lately? Continuing on that theme, over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 16-12 record, fifth best in the league, trailing the Cardinals (17-11) by a game and the Pirates (18-11) by a game and a half. That makes the Cubs a game short of joining the Cardinals and Pirates as playing .600-plus ball over the past 30 days. During that period, the Cubs have scored 4.8 runs per game, fourth in the league, while giving up 4.1 runs per game, the sixth fewest. The Pirates are one slot ahead of the Cubs in both categories, scoring 4.9 and giving up 4.0 per game. 

What's Going Right? Not a lot has changed since the teams met in Pittsburgh a week and a half ago. Cubs starting pitchers have the second best ERA in the league, 3.49, over the past 30 days, with the third highest strikeout rate, third lowest walk rate, fourth lowest rate of hard contact allowed, third highest rate of inducing swings outside the strike zone, and lowest rate of home runs allowed on fly balls. The bullpen's been less spectacular but still good: 3.49 ERA, sixth in the league, with the fourth highest strikeout rate and second highest rate of ground balls induced. At the plate, the Cubs are fair at getting on base (their .253 batting average over the last 30 days is tenth in the league and their .329 on base percentage is seventh) but they've got power. Their .428 slugging percentage is third in the league, powered by the most doubles and third most homers in the league over the past 30 days. That gives them a .175 isolated slugging average (slugging percentage minus batting average, measuring pure power), second only to the Mets.

What's Going Wrong? Two pitching measures that tend to regress toward the mean are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners left stranded. A team that's unusually good has probably been a little lucky, and a team that's unusually bad has probably been a little unlucky. The Cubs bullpen has the third-lowest batting average on balls in play and the fourth-highest strand rate in the league over the past 30 days, which suggests they haven't been as good as they've seemed. The Cubs hitters present a particular challenge for the Pirates pitching staff because the Cubs generate a lot of fly balls--their ratio of ground balls to fly balls is the third lowest in the league over the past 30 days--while the Pirates pitchers, as you probably know, rely on grounders, with the second highest ground ball/fly ball ratio in the league over the same period. Just as with lefty/righty platoons, fly ball hitters tend to do well against ground ball pitchers, and vice-versa. So the fly ball-happy Cubs batters could pose problems for the grounder-focused Pirates hurlers. On the other hand, the Pirates, somewhat contrary to their pitch-to-contact reputation, generate a fair number of strikeouts, with the fifth-highest K rate in the league over the past 30 days, and the Cubs are free swingers, with the second-highest strikeout rate and highest rate of whiffs on swings (26%) over the past 30 days. If the Pirates pitchers succeed, it may be less by generating ground balls and more by generating strike three against the whiff-prone Cubs.

Who's Hot? Jake Arrieta is the Pirates' main impediment to advancing in the postseason. He's the logical candidate to start a wild card play-in game against the Pirates, and he seems unstoppable. Over the past 30 days, the majors' first 20 game winner has a 0.43 ERA. He's allowed a .182 batting average on balls in play and he's stranded 93% of the runners who've gotten on base, which indicates a little luck, but you need good luck hitting against him: 42 strikeouts, 24 hits plus walks over his last 42 innings. He starts Sunday night's ESPN game. Kris Bryant, solidifying his Rookie of the Year credentials, has a .330 batting average, .377 on base percentage, and .585 slugging percentage over the past 30 days, though he's struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. His 23 RBI over the period tie him for third in the league. Starlin Castro, who has emerged as the team's top second baseman, has put up even better numbers, .386/.413/.643, albeit in more limited play. Corner outfielder Chris Coghlan (aka the guy whose takeout slide seriously injured the Pirates' Rookie of the Year contender and best second-half player, Jung Ho Kang) has a .375 on base percentage over the past 30 days, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo's is .361. 

Who's Not? Tomorrow afternoon's starter, Jason Hammel, may be pitching himself into the Cubs' bullpen during the postseason; he has a 6.20 ERA over the past 30 days and hasn't allowed fewer than three runs in a start in over a month. Rookie shortstop Addison Russell flashes impressive leather but is hitting just .181 with a .258 on base percentage over the past 30 days, and rookie left fielder Kyle Schwarber has a .176 batting average and .291 on base percentage over the same period. Schwarber's whiffed in nearly a third of his plate appearances, Russell almost 37% of his. 

What's the Outlook? The last Cubs series was a disaster for the Pirates, losing three straight after winning the first game, culminated by the season-ending (and, very possibly, 2016 season-delaying) injury to Kang. And those games were in Pittsburgh. Now they travel to Chicago after playing yesterday afternoon in the Mountain time zone (the Cubs had the day off) for two afternoon games followed by a Sunday night game. The latter game means they'll be wrapping up their Sunday six hours later than the Cardinals, who'll be at PNC for three do-or-die games starting Monday. So there are all sorts of ways for the Pirates' internal clocks to get messed up, relative to those of the Cubs and Cardinals. Plus, we'll find out, as some have posited, whether four games in the altitude of Coors Field screws up hitters' swings and timing. (One guy whose swing probably won't be affected: Andrew McCutchen has hardly had a chance to swing, having walked 13 times in his last 21 plate appearances.) Taking two of three in Chicago--a necessity if the Pirates are going to have a shot at catching the Cardinals and getting reasonable distance between themselves and the Cubs in the battle for home field advantage in the wild card game--strikes me as a tall order.

Yadi and Kang

Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina left yesterday's game with the Cubs after spraining his thumb tagging out the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo as he attempted to score on a sacrifice fly. He's getting an MRI on the thumb today and his prognosis is uncertain.

Molina is absolutely beloved by Cardinals fans. No question, he's a very good player, and one of the best defensive catchers in the league. But he's overrated in my book. This year, he's hit for a decent enough average, .270. But he's walked only 32 times, giving him a subpar .310 on base percentage (the league average for position players is .325), and he's had a power outage (23 doubles, 2 triples, four homers), giving him a truly bad .350 slugging percentage (the league average for position players is .411), the lowest on the Cardinals. There are those who'll claim that he's the team's best player; they really need to meet Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward, Randal Grichuk, Kolten Wong, and Jhonny Peralta. Further, over the last 30 days, when the Cards have come down to earth (16-12 record, including 7-10 since September 1), Molina's been a zero with the bat: 72nd among 73 qualifiers in batting average (.213), 69th in on base percentage (.267), 72nd in slugging percentage (.250). 

The point being: If he's out for the rest of the year, it'll be a blow to the Cardinals, no doubt. But it is nowhere near the blow, in terms of quality of the player lost, than the loss of Jung Ho Kang to the Pirates.

Losing Your Best Player

I touched on this earlier this week. I think that if you'd ask most Pirates fans to name the team's most valuable players, the list would start with Andrew McCutchen, followed by Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli, then maybe Neil Walker before shortstop/third baseman Jung Ho Kang. Here are the team's hitters (minimum 50 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star break:

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jung Ho Kang	54	197	33	61	14	0	11	29	0	2	10	48	.310	.364	.548	.913
Andrew McCutchen	55	202	38	61	9	1	10	37	4	2	34	58	.302	.405	.505	.910
Mike Morse	31	47	5	15	3	1	1	4	0	0	6	12	.319	.407	.489	.897
Pedro Alvarez	54	146	21	38	4	0	12	30	1	0	17	54	.260	.339	.534	.874
Francisco Cervelli	48	161	20	49	6	3	2	9	0	0	22	30	.304	.392	.416	.809
Gregory Polanco	55	233	35	66	14	3	6	23	9	3	17	46	.283	.332	.446	.778
Neil Walker	56	186	23	47	9	3	6	27	0	0	18	29	.253	.315	.430	.745
Starling Marte	55	199	31	56	11	2	3	20	11	3	5	31	.281	.330	.402	.732
Sean Rodriguez	51	87	13	25	6	0	1	7	0	2	2	25	.287	.333	.391	.724
Aramis Ramirez	43	154	14	39	10	0	5	28	0	0	10	17	.253	.299	.416	.715
Travis Ishikawa	28	48	4	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	4	16	.250	.308	.354	.662
Josh Harrison	24	68	10	17	3	0	0	3	1	3	5	13	.250	.320	.294	.614
Chris Stewart	25	56	1	14	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	13	.250	.271	.250	.521
Jordy Mercer	23	68	4	14	2	0	0	6	0	1	7	16	.206	.276	.235	.512

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/18/2015.

McCutchen's had a big second half, vaulting himself into the MVP discussion. But Kang's been better. He's hit more doubles and more homers in fewer plate appearances. When you combine that with the fact that he plays an adequate shortstop, and McCutchen plays an adequate center field, the defensive importance of shortstop over center field makes Kang, in my book, the team's best player over the second half of the year.

Until yesterday. In the first inning of yesterday afternoon's game against the Cubs, Cub right fielder Chris Coghlan slid hard into Kang, outside of the basepath, in an unsuccessful attempt to break up a double play. What resulted was one of the worst knee injuries in recent memory: torn medial collateral ligament and broken tibial plateau. He won't be playing with the Pirates until next season, probably not until after the season starts.

This is a big blow for the Pirates. As shown above, Kang was the team's best hitter in the second half. OK, let's say he and McCutchen were the two best. With Kang out of the lineup, Jordy Mercer will become the full-time shortstop, backed up by Pedro Florimon. Mercer's .594 OPS this season is the second-worst in the league among the 106 players with at least 350 plate appearances. Mercer was out for a month starting just after the All-Star break, injured by a take-out slide in Milwaukee. He was having a miserable season at the bat up to that point, with a .242 batting average, .289 on base percentage, and .315 slugging percentage at the time of the injury. Since coming back, he's been worse: .239/.289/.304. And that's been way better than Florimon, who in limited play has amassed a single and a triple in 22 at bats (that's a .091 batting average and .182 slugging percentage) and two walks (a .167 on base percentage).

So how big a blow is it? It's easy to overstate the impact of a star player. The Pirates have only 16 games left in the season. Statistically, on paper, Kang would be worth maybe one game over that stretch. That's borne out by the record: The Pirates are 63-40 in games that Kang started, and 24-19 when he didn't. The difference in winning percentage (.612 - .558 = .054), multiplied by 16 remaining games, equals a win. So if the Pirates finish a game behind the Cardinals or Cubs, it won't be a stretch to blame it on Coghlan's slide. Once we get into the postseason, any one-run loss might've been reversed with Kang's booming bat rather than Mercer's, um, less-than-booming one.

As for Coghlan's slide, it seems like it was legal to me. But that doesn't mean I like it. One of the appeals of baseball to me is that it isn't a contact sport. I mean, there's inevitably some contact, like a fielder slapping a tag on a runner attempting to steal, but the game isn't designed to be one of athletes crashing into one another. Sliding into second base on a double play makes sense; if the baserunner doesn't slide, he may catch a baseball on his forehead. If that causes the second baseman or shortstop to miss on his throw to first, all the better. But sliding outside of the basepath, aiming for the fielder, in an attempt to disrupt the throw? I don't see why that should be legal. Baseball made it illegal for catchers to block home plate and for baserunners to crash into the catcher. I'd like to see the same demise for the takeout slide. Baserunners sliding outside of the basepath at the fielder should be ejected, and the attempted double play should be automatically completed.