On Hiatuses and Not-So-Fun Facts

I've been blogging here a lot less this year than last year. You probably think it's because the Pirates aren't nearly as good as they were last year, and therefore I've lost interest. That's not it. The simple answer is: I've been busy! I've been writing a fair amount for Baseball Prospectus, which is an incredibly exciting honor, but it's a lot of work. Here's what I've been doing:

• On June 6, I researched whether a league with really bad teams creates a fertile ground for really good teams.
• On June 13, I wrote about how baseball sabermetrician Bill James's disdain for groundball pitchers, i.e., pitchers who generate many more groundballs than flyballs. I rose to their defense, pointing out that, in aggregate, they allow fewer home runs and, therefore, fewer runs than flyball pitchers.
• On June 14, I discussed an online poll in which, in response to the question "which off. stat is most important to a hitter's value," viewers chose on base percentage. I took issue with that assessment, illustrating how the voters' last pick, slugging percentage, was actually the best. 
• On June 15 (it was a busy week!) I listed players who led their teams in various categories, like RBI and strikeouts, with really unimpressive totals.
• Today I delved more into groundball pitchers, finding that their superiority over flyball pitchers hasn't been a constant over time.

I also wrote my regular weekly Trailing 30 report at Banished to the Pen on Monday. 

I'll try to at least post more contemporaneously.

Now, for a fun fact (which, full disclosure, I heard on MLB.com's Statcast Podcast): Here's a list of the top four outfielders (by plate appearances) for the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I've ranked them by OPS:

   Player                 PAs   BA    OBP   SLG   OPS
   Matt Joyce, Pit        117  .292  .419  .594  1.013
   Marcell Ozuna, Mia     287  .321  .373  .565   .938
   Christian Yelich, Mia  270  .316  .404  .491   .895
   Gregory Polanco, Pit   291  .295  .379  .510   .889
   Starling Marte, Pit    268  .331  .373  .498   .871
   Ichiro Suzuki, Mia     151  .353  .427  .398   .825
   Giancarlo Stanton, Mia 252  .211  .311  .427   .737
   Andrew McCutchen, Pit  304  .238  .316  .403   .719

Two of the biggest stars in baseball, at the bottom of the list. 

What's Broken with the Pirates?

The Pirates started well this year, going 15-9 in April, the fourth-best winning percentage (after the Cubs, Nationals, and Mets) in the National League. They slipped in May, going 14-13, and they're only 1-4 in June. Since winning five straight on May 23-27, they've won only twice in nine games. They're still in second in the Central division, but they trail the Cubs by 9.5 games and are only half a game ahead of the Cardinals.

And it doesn't get any easier in the near term. Tonight the team hosts the Mets for three games. Then they have to fly to Denver for a makeup game against the Rockies on Thursday, then fly back home for a weekend series against the Cardinals, After an off day, they open a six-game road trip with three games in New York and three in Chicago. The last of those games against the Cubs is the ESPN Sunday Night game, so it'll be a last flight back to Pittsburgh to start a four game season against the Giants the next day, followed by four against the Dodgers, then a cross-country flight to close out the month with two games in Seattle.

That's 23 games in 24 games, all but one against teams with winning records (and that one, against the Rockies, features the most idiosyncratic park in the league and is sandwiched between two long flights). And they're banged up; catcher Francisco Cervelli and third baseman David Freese haven't played since being hit by pitches in Thursday's game in Miami.

So what's been the problem? 

Let's look at a few full-year statistics. The Pirates are 30-26. After 56 games last year, they were 31-25, so the overall results have been similar. I'm going to compare the 2016 Pirates to the 2015 Pirates, using full-year 2015 figures vs. year-to-date 2016 numbers. And instead of listing just the raw statistics, I'm also going to include where the team ranks in the 15-team National League. 

(an asterisk indicates that the rank lists how low the team is rather than how high. For example, the 20% strikeout rate on offense is the third lowest in the league, and the relievers' 4.04 ERA is the tenth lowest.)

A few things jump out.

• While the team's rank in runs scored per game is the same as it was last year, the offense is a lot better. The hitters have gone from striking out more than average to being one of the toughest teams to whiff, and they've gone from being infrequent walkers to walking a lot. That's moved them to first in on base percentage. They're also stealing more bases, and more successfully.
• All told, the Pirates are the best-hitting team in the league, arguably. (The Cardinals have the best argument.) Some might say, "Yeah, but they haven't been able to drive runners in." It's true that the team's .267 batting average with runners in scoring position is ten points lower than the overall team average, but that .267 figure is still fourth in the league.
• I didn't include this in the table, but the defense has been better than last year as well. Not a lot better, but better.
• So the problem's been pitching. The Pirates' strategy has been to not give batters a lot of pitches to hit (low Zone %, which is the percentage of pitches in the strike zone) and get them to swing at pitches outside the zone (high Chase %, the percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone), resulting in a lot of ground balls (high GB%, the percentage of balls in play that are grounders).
• That strategy's been receding this year. Opposing batters are laying off those outside-the-zone pitches, resulting in more walks and fewer strikeouts. It's also forced the pitchers to pitch more in the zone, resulting in fewer grounders and more homers. 
• In the team's 2-7 skid over the last nine days, the pitching hasn't been great--4.83 starter ERA, 3.86 reliever ERA, striking out just 15% of opposing batters while walking 8%--but the culprit's been the hitting, with a .227/.310/.371 slash line. Chris Stewart (.118), Jordy Mercer (.130), Sean Rodriguez (.154), John Jaso (.190) and Andrew McCutchen (.200) are all batting .200 or less, and all but Rodriguez have slugging percentages of .250 or lower as well. Stewart, Jaso, and Cervelli have combined for zero extra-base hits in 54 at bats. Rodriguez and Stewart have been appearing more than planned due to injuries, so presumably they'll do better with more rest.

It seems reasonable to expect more from the offense, especially as Cervelli and Freese return to the lineup and others shake off nagging injuries. The pitching, though, worries me. It's as if somebody sent out a memo to the other teams in the league over the winter with two words: STOP SWINGING. If the Pirates pitchers can't induce weak contact on outside-the-zone pitches as they have in recent years, the hitters, as good as they are, may struggle to consistently outscore opponents.

Bucs Update: April

The Pirates finished April with a record of 15-9. While that trailed the best-in-the-majors Cubs by three games in the National League Central, it's still a good record: Fourth best in the National League, fifth best in the majors overall. The only teams that were better are the Cubs at 17-5, the Nationals at 16-7, the Mets at 15-7, and the White Sox at 17-8.

That's better than last year, when the Pirates finished the month at 12-10, third in their division, fifth in the league, eleventh in the majors. It's worth noting that after April 30 last year, the Pirates were 86-54, the best record in the majors.

Now, April's not the most important month. In fact, per this article of mine in Baseball Prospectus, it's the least predictive month of the season. By the same token, the trends that've emerged in April need to at least be monitored.

How did they get to 15-9? Well, there are a couple overall comments. First, they team's been a little lucky, but just a little. Based on its April run differential of 128 runs scored and 109 allowed, we'd expect a record a game or so worse. Second, they haven't played a particularly tough schedule so far. Through the end of April, they'd played only four games against teams playing better than .500, going 1-3 against Detroit, while running up an 14-6 record against Arizona, Cincinnati, Colorado, Milwaukee, San Diego, and St. Louis (the Cardinals were exactly a .500 team in April). That'll change tonight when they fact the Cubs, who did not play a single .500-plus team in April, facing Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Colorado, the LA Angels, and Milwaukee.

Yet it doesn't feel like the team's been one of the best in the league, does it? Let's compare how they Pirates arrived at this year's 15-9 vs. last year's 12-10. I'm going to show you three tables, indicating how the Pirates did this year vs. last year in April. For each statistic, I'll show the raw number as well as where the team ranked in the 15-team National League. For ranks with an asterisk, it means that the lower the statistic, the better (e.g., ERA).

First, offense:

The offense has been a lot better than last year. The Pirates are fourth in the league in scoring and lead in both batting average and on base percentage. Note that they've cut way down on strikeouts and are getting way more walks, in each case moving from one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. Like last year, opposing pitchers aren't throwing them a lot of pitches in the strike zone (Zone %) but the batters are much less likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (Chase %). Also, while the team's power ranking (isolated slugging, which is equal to slugging percentage minus batting average) hasn't moved up much, the raw number has. As Travis Sawchik pointed out over the weekend, the team's benefited from seeing more pitches. They won't stay this hot, but the offense looks strong.

One exception: Andrew McCutchen was the worst batter in the Pirates' starting eight during April, posting a .226/.339/441 slash line. But considering that he hit .194/.302/.333 in April last year, one of the worst performances in the league, then went on to be one of the top hitters in the game for the remainder of the season, it seems premature to worry.

In my preview for the team's 2016 season, I identified starting pitching as a key area of concern. Has that been borne out?

The starters have undoubtedly been worse. Their ERA is higher, and their FIP (fielding-independent pitching, a measure that's scaled like ERA but takes into account only strikeouts, walks, and home runs) has gone from best in the league to among the worse. They're striking out fewer hitters, walking more, and not lasting as deep into the game. Most worrisome to me is the chase percentage. When pitchers get opposing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, it means that they're fooling hitters and, more often than not, inducing weak contact. The Pirates starters got a lot of batters to chase last year. They're not this year. If hitters lay off pitches outside the zone, they can tee off on the resulting pitches in the zone. This is a concerning trend that I'll monitor. I'm still worried about the rotation.

How about the bullpen, long a Pirates strength, but off to a slow start this year?

Well, the bullpen isn't the dumpster fire it was when I wrote the post referenced above, but it hasn't been good, and it started May with its fourth loss of the year. This is my biggest worry for the Pirates. The offense won't stay this good, but it's a good unit. The starters aren't a great bunch, but they're OK, and there are probably reinforcements on the way. But a bad bullpen? This is new, and it's disconcerting. Last season, the Pirates had nine relievers who threw at least 25 innings, and of them, all but one had an ERA below 3.00. (And the one who was above, Arquimedes Caminero, was at a not-bad 3.62). This year, of the eight Pittsburgh relievers with at least five innings pitched so far, only one's below 3.00 (and that one, Mark Melancon, isn't below by much, 2.61). They're still getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone, but they've backslid in all the components of FIP--they're allowing more home runs and walks and getting fewer strikeouts. Absent pretty marked improvement, the team is going to be challenged to hold onto late leads and overcome late deficits.  

Is this whining about a good team? Perhaps. But remember, that 15-9 record came against teams that, by and large, have struggled this year. In May, the team has six games against the Cubs and three each against the Cardinals and Rangers. That's a tougher slate than the team faced in April. Some things, especially the bullpen, need to get better in order to maintain this hot start.

Locking Up Polanco

There's a pattern here:

• August 2011: Signed second-year outfielder Jose Tabata, 23, to a six-year contract with three additional team option years. The maximum value, including a $1 million signing bonus, is nine years, $37.3 million. The minimum value, including the signing bonus and buyout, is six years, $15 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and his first one to four years of free agency.
• March 2012: Signed third-year outfielder Andrew McCutchen, 25, to a six-year contract with one additional team option year. The maximum value, including a $1.2 million signing bonus, is seven years, $65 million. The minimum value, including the signing bonus and buyout, is six years, $51.5 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and the his first two to three years of free agency.
• March 2014: Signed third-year outfielder Starling Marte, 25, to a six-year contract with two additional team option years. The maximum value, including a $2 million signing bonus is eight years, $55 million. The minimum value, including the signing bonus and buyout, is six years, $31 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and his first two to four years of free agency.
• April 2016: Signed third-year outfielder Gregory Polanco, 24, to a five-year contract with two additional team option years. According to reports, the maximum value is over $60 million and the minimum value is $35 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and his first one to three years of free agency

The Tabata contract was a bust. He's now in the Dodgers system, though the Pirates are on the hook for his $4.5 million salary in this year, the last of his contract. The McCutchen contract--including $10 million last year, $13 million this year, $14 million next year, and a certain-to-be-exercised $14.5 million option in 2018--is one of the biggest bargains in the game. The Marte deal's looking pretty good for the Pirates as well.

Now they're signing up the third of their current outfielders. Here's the catch, though: Polanco hasn't been all that good. Of the 155 players with at least 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons, he's 130th in batting average (.249), 114th in on base percentage (.316), and 138th in slugging percentage (.369). Keep in mind that those rankings are among all players; Polanco's a corner outfielder who's put up middle infielder-type numbers. 

So why did the Pirates extend him? Two reasons. First, he's young, having turned 24 just last September. He's also large, at 6'5", 230 pounds, and he's arguably still growing into his body. (As someone nowhere near that size, I have no idea whether that last sentence makes any sense at all.) Second, of the 156 batting qualifiers in the second half of 2015, Polanco was 74th in batting average (.276), 89th in on base percentage (.324), and 95th in slugging percentage (.425). Granted, those aren't world-beating numbers, but they're a lot better than his work up to that point. If he continues to improve, he'll be a solid contributor. 

Worst case--call it the Tabata outcome--the Pirates waste $35 million over five years. That's not backbreaking, in the sense that it's not so much money that it'd prevent the team from spending elsewhere. And as was demonstrated with Tabata, the Pirates won't take the self-defeating action of playing a subpar player solely because he's owed a chunk of change. Better case, they've locked in a decent player through at least 2020, or a star through 2022. That's a reasonable risk. 

Four More Games of Andrew McCutchen

Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote an excellent article describing why the Pirates are considering moving center fielder Andrew McCutchen from the No. 3 spot in the batting order to the N0o. 2 position. McCutchen batted third in all but one of his 154 games started last year, so this would be quite a change.

Traditionally, the No. 3 spot in the order is reserved for the team's best all-around hitter. Babe Ruth mostly batted third. So did Willie Mays. And Ty Cobb. And Ted Williams. And Henry Aaron. But that doesn't make it the optimal strategy. The Blue Jays' primary No. 2 hitter was MVP Josh Donaldson. The Angels used MVP runner-up Mike Trout in the No. 2 position more than anyone else. The Reds had Joey Votto, third in NL MVP voting, batting second more than anyone else. Stark explains the rationale for this proposed move:

So what the deep thinkers in the sport are beginning to understand is that the No. 3 spot might not be the best place to station your team’s best offensive force -- that it actually ranks behind the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 slots in importance, in fact.

“It’s about lineup construction, and the number of at-bats you get, and the weight that you put on the outs you make in those different spots,” Hurdle said. “It’s still an optimum place to hit, but it’s weighted differently now. When you look at it, most of the models that are put together are based on on-base production (from) guys at the top three out of four spots. So you still want a guy (hitting third) who can swing the bat and do some things. But it’s not the same, because the highest percentage of the time, they go up with two outs and nobody on.”

To reinforce that point, the Pirates showed McCutchen a list of hitters who batted the most times with two outs and the bases empty last year. And there he was, second in all of baseball on that list, with 158 plate appearances. Only Paul Goldschmidt (164) ranked ahead of him. Virtually all the names behind them were also No. 3 hitters. So you didn’t need to be Bill James to see the trend in those numbers.

Let's do some math, OK? 

• Last year McCutchen had 682 plate appearances in the 154 games he started. That's 4.4 plate appearances per game.
• Last year National League No. 2 hitters batted 10,963 times last year. No. 3 hitters batted 10,715 times. No. 2 hitters batted about 2.3% times more frequently.
• Take McCutchen's 682 plate appearances in his games started and increase it by 2.3%, and you get 698. That's 16 extra plate appearances.
• Those 16 extra plate appearances divided by 4.4 per game equals 3.6 games. Round that up and you get four games.

Moving McCutchen from the No. 3 spot to the No. 2 spot in the order is the equivalent to getting him for just shy of four extra games per year. Obviously, that's not a huge differences. But he's clearly the Pirates' best hitter. Four extra games of your best hitter in a division with three contending teams--well, it sure can't hurt.

Christmas Vacation Catch-Up

I. First Base, Solved. Two days before Christmas, the Pirates signed John Jaso to a two year, $8 million contract. On the surface, this doesn't seem like a defining moment for the 2016 season. Jaso's 32. He's never played in more than 109 games in a season, and over the past three years, he's played an average of 80 games per season. Here are his stats over those years. The last column, the one I labeled POS, lists the positions at which he played, by games.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	POS
2013	29	OAK	70	249	207	31	56	12	0	3	21	2	1	38	45	.271	.387	.372	.759	114	48 C, 17 DH, 1 1B
2014	30	OAK	99	344	307	42	81	18	3	9	40	2	0	28	60	.264	.337	.430	.767	118	54 C, 35 DH
2015	31	TBR	70	216	185	23	53	17	0	5	22	1	2	28	39	.286	.380	.459	.839	132	48 DH, 8 OF

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

There are two nonintuitive things about the Jaso signing. First, he'll play first base for the Pirates. As you can see, over the past three years, he's played exactly one game at first, and that was in 2013. It also, as it happens, was for one inning. The sum total of the remainder of his experience at first base was a game in 2010 in which he played four innings there. So the Pirates signed a first baseman who's played a total of five innings there in his career.

Second, the Pirates' primary first baseman last year was Pedro Alvarez, who was not offered a contract for 2016. Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 150 games last year. Jaso has hit 27 home runs in the last four seasons combined, covering 347 games.

So the Pirates are replacing a slugging first baseman--career total 19 at bats per home run--with a guy who's pretty much never played the position, hits a homer every 43 at bats, and is four years older than the guy he's replacing.

Before I get into why I think the move makes sense, I want to point out two amusing things about the Pirates signing Jaso. First, on December 14, FanGraphs' Eno Sarris wrote a piece entitled "Finding the Pirates (Another) First Baseman," in which he previewed six first base possibilities for the Pirates, concluding:

But there’s one left-handed player left who is younger than the oldest of these options, better offensively than anyone we’ve mentioned so far, has experience playing the position, and offers the potential of a win and a half of production that would boost the Pirates to average all over the field. His name is John Jaso...He won’t cost a prospect, and he could help patch up the worst hole on the field. Plus, he’d return dreadlocks to the field in Pittsburgh, which is fun, if not valuable by traditional metrics.

In other words, Sarris totally nailed the Jaso pickup by the Bucs. Then, when the deal was announced, FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote a typically clever column  entitled "Pirates Sign John Jaso, Obviously." His smart analysis includes this gem:

He’s getting two years, and he’s getting $8 million, and if this isn’t the very most Pirates move, it’s at least in the conversation. It doesn’t get much more Pirates than this.

It's true: The Pirates finding a low-budget, nondescript solution to a problem is what they do best, whether it's Francisco Liriano, Jung Ho Kang, or Francisco Cervelli. Here's why I think Jaso will work for the Pirates.

1. Yes, Jaso's had very limited experience at first, but he spent most of his career as a catcher (repeated concussions probably make that a non-starter in Pittsburgh), and catchers often make a smooth transition to first base. Besides, replacing Alvarez at first isn't exactly a high bar defensively.
2. Look at the on base percentage line his stats. His career average is .361, and he's been above .370 in four of his six major league seasons. You know how many Pirates had an on base percentage in 2015 above .370? One: Andrew McCutchen. (Cervelli was at .370, exactly.) The Pirates had a good offense (fourth in the National League in runs scored), but as I've pointed out, a high on base percentage is highly correlated with scoring runs. Jaso will improve the team in that respect.
3. Jaso bats left. The Pirates have only one other left-handed batter in their lineup: right fielder Gregory Polanco. Compare these two batting lines:

Player	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Player A	681	616	71	142	31	1	30	88	2	1	51	191	.231	.295	.430	.725
Player B	681	594	75	162	46	2	15	67	3	5	74	139	.273	.357	.433	.790

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

Which would you rather have? Obviously, the second batter's better: Way more singles, doubles, and walks compensating for the reduction in home runs. Player A is the Pirates first basemen in 2015. Player B is a hybrid, assuming a platoon of Jaso and Michael Morse. I assumed that the Pirates face, as they did in 2015, about 75% right-handed pitchers and 25% lefties, and I combined Jaso's performance last year against righties (weighted 75%) and Morse's against lefties (weighted 25%). Now, line B is probably overstated, as the Pirates will have batters other than Jaso and Morse get some at bats, and each of them will face a relief pitcher against whom they'll have a platoon disadvantage from time to time. But there's reason to believe that the Jaso/Morse platoon will outperform the Alvarez/Morse/Sean Rodriguez combination of 2015. And that's looking just at offense, not defense.

Finally, Josh Bell is one of the Pirates' top farmhands (ranked No. 34 in baseball before the 2015 season by mlb.com) and the team's first baseman of the future, but he's still raw. He's played only 35 games at AAA, and 2015 was his first season at first base. The Jaso/Morse tandem will keep the position warm as the 23-year-old gains experience in the minors. Once Bell comes up, the Pirates will have a bat to deal at the trade deadline.

II. Andrew McCutchen, Not Solved. The Pirates' best player is signed through 2017, and the club has a certain-to-be-exercised option for 2018 as well. They'll pay McCutchen $13 million in 2016, $14 million in 2017, and $14.75 million in 2018, representing one of the biggest bargains in baseball; he'd probably get twice those amounts on the open market. He turns 32 in October 2018, so the Pirates have him signed for his prime years at below-market prices.

What's wrong with that? Well, it's what happens after the 2018 season. True, he likely won't be the same player then that he is now. This year, at 28, he's showed some signs of slowing down. He batted below .300, with a slugging percentage below .500, for the first time since 2011. With just 11 stolen bases and a 69% success rate, he's really not much of a stolen base threat. He's probably the worst fielder among the Pirates' three outfielders (though, in contrast to the club's defense at first base, that's a pretty high bar). He set a career high for strikeouts in 2015.

But, of course, we're talking about Andrew McCutchen here. He's been the face of franchise that hasn't really had a face since Willie Stargell, and its best all-around player since Barry Bonds and, before him, Roberto Clemente. In an article last week at ESPN, Buster Olney wrote,

It would make sense for the Pirates to sit down with McCutchen and his representatives before the start of the 2016 season, and take their best shot at signing the center fielder to a long-term extension...
Maybe the proposal would provide a platform for talks; maybe McCutchen's side would agree, or at least be willing to haggle some. It's also possible that the Pirates' proposal, within the current context, wouldn't be close to what McCutchen would want in an extension. Maybe McCutchen would prefer to play someplace else, for more money, which is entirely his right...
The sooner there is clarity on this for the Pirates and McCutchen, the better. If McCutchen agreed to terms, then the building anxiety over his situation -- for all involved, including the fans -- would end. (And with time, the price of an extension might only become more expensive).
If the Pirates and McCutchen cannot reach a deal, then the team's leadership would know, moving forward, that his time with the franchise will end. If the Pirates fall behind the Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings next summer, the team could dangle McCutchen in the July trade market and at least begin the process of assessing what they can get in return for him. They could either move him before July 31, or swap him next winter or the winter of 2017-18, leading up to his free agency.

The idea of Neil Walker leaving Pittsburgh was controversial. Can you imagine the club dealing McCutchen? But that's the dilemma it may face: Sign your best player to a long-term extension that will almost certainly overpay him in the out years, or try to trade an asset whose value decreases with every day he moves closer to free agency after the 2018 World Series. 

Awards Rewind - The Pirates Perspective

I nailed them: predicted the winners of the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP correctly. This isn't to say that I'm smart; you may have noticed that my prediction that the Blue Jays would defeat the Dodgers in the World Series didn't quite come true. Rather, it's a reflection of how predictable the awards voting has become. And, I might add, how good it's become--I wouldn't have picked all the same winners as the BBWAA electorate, but I don't have a problem with any of the selections. So, well done, all you electors who will never read this and could care less what I think of your selections.

Incidentally, if you want to read an outstanding discussion of one voter's decision process, read this by FanGraphs' Dave Cameron explaining his National League Cy Young Award vote. 

Pirates were shut out of the awards (unless you count Starling Marte's Gold Glove) but had contenders in every category. They didn't really have a chance, though:

• Jung Ho Kang's season came to an abrupt end on September 17 when a takeout slide by the Cubs' Chris Coghlan tore Kang's knee ligaments and broke his leg. Even before then, he probably wasn't going to beat the Cubs' Kris Bryant for Rookie of the Year. Kang's slash line was .287/.355/.461. Bryant finished at .275/.369/.488 and led all rookies in homers, RBI, and runs scored.
• Clint Hurdle, who was fourth in the voting, has now managed a team with 20 straight losing seasons since its last postseason appearance to three straight postseasons (albeit via the wild card). The Pirates' 98 wins in 2015 ties the 1908, 1979, and 1991 clubs for the third most in franchise history. But Joe Maddon guided the Cubs to nearly as many wins, 97, and the team's 24-win improvement over 2014 was the greatest in the majors, topping the Rangers' 21-game move.
• Gerrit Cole emerged as the Pirates' staff ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he really wasn't in the same class (2.60 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) as the triumvirate of the Cubs' Jake Arrieta and the Dodgers' Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw (combined 1.85 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), who were 1-2-3 in the voting. Cole was fourth.
• Here is the argument for Andrew McCutchen as National League MVP (he finished fifth): He was the best player on a team that made the postseason. Here is the argument for the Nationals' Bryce Harper, the unanimous winner: He was the best player in the National League.

The next vote up is the Hall of Fame. The rhetoric about that will be, as always, over the top. If I could vote, I'd pick the full allotment of ten candidates. Alphabetically:

• Jeff Bagwell
• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Ken Griffey, Jr.
• Edgar Martinez
• Mike Mussina
• Mike Piazza
• Tim Raines
• Curt Schilling
• Alan Trammell

A couple quick notes here: Yes, I know that Bonds and Clemens used performance-enhancing drugs. Given that I don't have Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro on my my list, I don't ignore drug use. It's just that it's fairly clear to me when in their careers they started to use them, and it's abundantly clear to me that they were Hall of Fame-worthy prior to their use. And I don't think using drugs should automatically disqualify someone; way too many players used them to make that call. Your mileage may vary on this point, of course. As for some of the others...Martinez was an absolutely devastating hitter, and if he's not a Hall of Famer because he was a designated hitter, neither is David Ortiz, and that seems silly. I think Trammell is an easy call and it's a shame that his double play partner, Lou Whitaker, is no longer eligible to be voted in. Mussina and Schilling are much easier calls for me than for the electorate, which gave them 25% and 37% of the vote, respectively, last year (the requirement for induction is 75%). Lastly, of course, there's Tim Raines...

A Wild Card Game of Inches

This postseason has had no shortage of stories: Utley's slide, Gibbons leaving in Cecil to pitch to Napoli, the Royals' singles vs. the Astros' homers, Price in long relief in a blowout, Molina's thumb...yet to Pirates fans, we're on the outside looking in. We're still stuck on Jake Arrieta's shutout last Wednesday in the wild card game. During last night's Cubs-Cardinals game, a lot of Pirates followers must've said, as my wife did, while watching Arrieta surrender four runs on five hits and two walks in five and two-thirds innings, "Why couldn't he have pitched that way against the Pirates?" After all, he was unhittable against the Bucs: Complete game shutout, five hits and no walks, eleven strikeouts. The Pirates didn't have a chance.

Except...they sort of did. This article by Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is the best post-mortem I've read of the wild card game. It's not long, and it's a good read, but if you want to skip it, Cameron's point is that the Pirates did have a chance against Arrieta. In the sixth inning, Arrieta hit third baseman Josh Harrison. Sandwiched around Harrison's stroll to first, four Pirates batters absolutely smoked four batted balls. Each left their bats traveling over 100 miles per hour. Balls hit that hard are usually base hits, often for extra bases. But instead, the Pirates got:

• Pinch hitter Travis Snider, single
• Right fielder Gregory Polanco, lineout
• Center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reached on error, runners advanced one base
• Left fielder Starling Marte, grounded into double play

Now, this wasn't all bad luck on the Pirates' part. Every one of the batted balls was hit on the ground or on a line drive. None of them were hit in the air, where they would've had a good chance of landing in the outfield for extra bases, or over the fence, and that's due at least in part to Arrieta's skill as a pitcher. But other than Snider, every one of the Pirates' screaming hits went right to a Cubs infielder--Polanco to third baseman Kris Bryant, who made a juggling catch on the fly, and McCutchen and Marte to shortstop Addison Russell, who couldn't handle McCutchen's shot but turned Marte's into an inning-ending twin killing. Let's say those balls were hit just a couple inches to the left or right of where they were. Snider singles up the middle. Polanco's rocket goes down the left field line, resulting in a double, runners on second and third. Harrison's hit, loading the bases. McCutchen singles to center, runners advancing a base, and Marte does the same. Now it's a 4-2 game with one out and the bases loaded. Or maybe Harrison scores on Marte's single, making it 4-3. One out, Cervelli and Walker due up. It would've been a different ballgame, and it turned on a four balls that were nailed, going right into fielders' gloves, instead of just out of their reach. 

Fast Thoughts on Another Early Exit

Russell Martin led off the seventh inning on October 1, 2013 by hitting a home run on a full count against Cincinnati Reds reliever Logan Ondrusek. Do you remember the play? Me neither. But it was the last run scored by the Pirates in a wild card game. Since Martin's blast, the Pirates have gotten nine singles and one walk and no runs in 21 innings of wild card baseball.

• I wish I'd have been wrong about my predication, but Jake Arrieta really is unstoppable. I think the Pirates would have had a shot if the wild card game were a series, but one game against Arrieta is unfair for anyone.
• Yes, Arrieta could have defused the situation that precipitated the bench-clearing incident in the seventh by just taking his base, but come on, Tony Watson was totally in the wrong by hitting him with a pitch. Yes, Arrieta's pitch that sailed near Francisco Cervelli's head was scary. But does anyone really think it was anything other than an accident? This macho "gotta protect my teammates" nonsense is what put Andrew McCutchen on the disabled list a year ago. I've said it before: Someday, baseball is going to have another Ray Chapman moment, and it's going to make all this eye-for-an-eye retaliation crap involving throwing hard objects at 90+ mph seem really, really irresponsible and stupid.
• You hear a lot about the importance of games in September during the pennant drive. Well, the baseball season's 162 games long, and each game's important. As I pointed out on Sunday, the Pirates would have won the division had they played as well against the Brewers and Reds as did everybody else. The Pirates opened the season by dropping three straight in Cincinnati. They lost three in a row in Milwaukee right after the All-Star break. Had either of those April or July series been reversed, the Pirates would be secretly happy that they'd have to face Arrieta only once in the Divisional Series against the Cubs, which would open Friday night at PNC Park. Every game matters.
• We've got the whole offseason to think about this, but the Pirates have some decisions to make. Aramis Ramirez and A.J. Burnett are retiring. J.A. Happ, Joakim Soria, Antonio Bastardo, and Sean Rodriguez will be free agents. Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Melancon, Chris Stewart, and Cervelli are entering their final year of arbitration after decent to very good seasons, meaning they're going to cost the Pirates a lot more money and will be eligible for free agency after next season. Other arbitration-eligible players include Watson, Jared Hughes, Jordy Mercer, and Jeff Locke. Economics may force roster changes.
• Pirates won't be winning any awards this year. McCutchen will probably be in the top five, maybe the top three, for MVP, but Washington's Bryce Harper locked that down months ago. Gerrit Cole had a great season, but Arrieta and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke were on a higher plane than anybody and will split the Cy Young vote. Jung Ho Kang was not going to win the Rookie of the Year even before he got hurt--the Cubs' Kris Bryant will get it--but he ought to be in the top three. Clint Hurdle managed the Pirates to the third most wins in franchise history, but the Mets' Terry Collins and the Cubs' Joe Maddon guided perennial losing teams to the postseason; Maddon looks to be Manager of the Year.

Wow, Tough Loss. Now, Please Don't Bounce Back. Give Up.

The Pirates lost to the Cardinals, 3-0, yesterday. It was a tough, tough, loss, as the Pirates had multiple scoring opportunities--they loaded the bases in four different innings--but were unable to push a run across the plate. In all, they left 16 runners on base. That's the most in a nine-inning game in the majors this season, and the most in the majors since the Pirates stranded 16 in a 10-3 win against the Padres in June last year. For Pirates fans, it was reminiscent of the team's early struggles, when it got runners on base but failed to score. 

The National League Central standings are now:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  99 58 .631  --
Pittsburgh 95 62 .605   4
Chicago    91 65 .583 7.5

The Cardinals and Pirates have five more games to play. The Cubs have six.

• If the Cardinals win two of their last five games--they finish their season this weekend in Atlanta, playing the team with the second-worst record in the majors--they'll clinch the division, regardless of what the Pirates do. 
• If the Cards win just one of their next five, the Pirates will have to win every game remaining this year (two against St. Louis, three against Cincinnati) in order to play a one-game playoff on Monday to determine the division champion. The loser of that game will host the Cubs next Wednesday for the wild card play-in.
• If the Cards go 0-5 for the rest of the season and Pirates win every remaining game, the Pirates will win the Central and skip the Wild Card game. If the Cardinals go 0-5 and the Pirates go 4-1, the teams will tie and play on Monday.

Put another way: For the Pirates to win the division outright, they'll have to go 5-0 and the Cardinals 0-5 the rest of the season. That means the Pirates will have to win the next two days against St. Louis and sweep the season-ending series at home against the Reds, who are 10-6 against Pittsburgh this year. It means the Cardinals will have to drop both games against the Pirates and lose three straight on the road against an Atlanta team that hasn't won three straight against a team with a winning record since June and has easily the worst record in the majors since the All-Star Break. For the Pirates to host the Cardinals Monday to determine the championship, they still have to win both of the remaining St. Louis games, and they can lose one game to the Reds or the Cardinals can win one game against the Braves. They go 5-0 and the Cardinals 1-4, or they go 4-1 and the Cardinals 0-5.

Anything is possible. But the scenarios I described are highly, highly unlikely. They're sufficiently unlikely that we can safely say they're not going to happen.

How about the Cubs, though? Are the Pirates at risk of losing home field advantage in the wild card game next Wednesday? The Cubs will be the home field team if they finish with a better overall record than the Pirates or if the teams are tied, as the first tiebreaker for determining home field advantage is head-to-head record. The Cubs won the season series against Pittsburgh, 11-8. So in order for the Pirates to play the wild card game at home, they need to finish ahead of the Cubs. The Cubs start a three-game series against the Reds tonight and have a three-game set against the Brewers this weekend, all on the road.

• If the Cubs sweep both series, the Pirates will still finish ahead of them in the standings if they go 3-2.
• If the Cubs go 5-1, the Pirates will need to go 2-3.
• If the Cubs go 4-2, the Pirates will need to win just one game.
• If the Cubs don't win four of their remaining six, the Pirates will host the wild card game regardless of what they do in their remaining games. 

Both the Brewers and Reds have been playing pretty bad ball of late. Over the past couple weeks, the Reds have the worst record in baseball, 3-10, and the Brewers are tied for the third worst, 4-9. The Cubs have beaten up on both teams this year, going 11-5 against Milwaukee and 10-6 against Cincinnati. Still, winning all six games is going to be hard, particularly since only one will be started by the unstoppable Jake Arrieta. So let's say the Cubs go 5-1. If the Pirates lose tonight, the Cardinals will clinch the division. It's not hard to see the Pirates winning Wednesday's Gerrit Cole-Tyler Lyons mismatch against a hung over Cardinals team. Then they have to take just one of three over the weekend, against a Reds team that's playing out the string, in order to stay ahead of the Cubs. 

So my hope for the Pirates is that, since winning the division is now effectively out of reach, they lose tonight and start giving players days off. They've played 29 games in the last 30 days. Neil Walker's had one day off. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte have had two. Jordy Mercer and Gregory Polanco have missed only four. Francisco Cervelli has caught all but six games. Five relievers have appeared in twelve or more games. Give them some time off. Let the bruises heal and sore muscles recover. Let them sleep in and sharpen their mental edge. Accept the inevitability of losing the division title and accept the likelihood of hosting the wild card game. The Cubs will start Arrieta. The Pirates will need all the advantage they can get.