Locking Up Polanco

There's a pattern here:

• August 2011: Signed second-year outfielder Jose Tabata, 23, to a six-year contract with three additional team option years. The maximum value, including a $1 million signing bonus, is nine years, $37.3 million. The minimum value, including the signing bonus and buyout, is six years, $15 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and his first one to four years of free agency.
• March 2012: Signed third-year outfielder Andrew McCutchen, 25, to a six-year contract with one additional team option year. The maximum value, including a $1.2 million signing bonus, is seven years, $65 million. The minimum value, including the signing bonus and buyout, is six years, $51.5 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and the his first two to three years of free agency.
• March 2014: Signed third-year outfielder Starling Marte, 25, to a six-year contract with two additional team option years. The maximum value, including a $2 million signing bonus is eight years, $55 million. The minimum value, including the signing bonus and buyout, is six years, $31 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and his first two to four years of free agency.
• April 2016: Signed third-year outfielder Gregory Polanco, 24, to a five-year contract with two additional team option years. According to reports, the maximum value is over $60 million and the minimum value is $35 million. The contract covers his arbitration years and his first one to three years of free agency

The Tabata contract was a bust. He's now in the Dodgers system, though the Pirates are on the hook for his $4.5 million salary in this year, the last of his contract. The McCutchen contract--including $10 million last year, $13 million this year, $14 million next year, and a certain-to-be-exercised $14.5 million option in 2018--is one of the biggest bargains in the game. The Marte deal's looking pretty good for the Pirates as well.

Now they're signing up the third of their current outfielders. Here's the catch, though: Polanco hasn't been all that good. Of the 155 players with at least 900 plate appearances over the past two seasons, he's 130th in batting average (.249), 114th in on base percentage (.316), and 138th in slugging percentage (.369). Keep in mind that those rankings are among all players; Polanco's a corner outfielder who's put up middle infielder-type numbers. 

So why did the Pirates extend him? Two reasons. First, he's young, having turned 24 just last September. He's also large, at 6'5", 230 pounds, and he's arguably still growing into his body. (As someone nowhere near that size, I have no idea whether that last sentence makes any sense at all.) Second, of the 156 batting qualifiers in the second half of 2015, Polanco was 74th in batting average (.276), 89th in on base percentage (.324), and 95th in slugging percentage (.425). Granted, those aren't world-beating numbers, but they're a lot better than his work up to that point. If he continues to improve, he'll be a solid contributor. 

Worst case--call it the Tabata outcome--the Pirates waste $35 million over five years. That's not backbreaking, in the sense that it's not so much money that it'd prevent the team from spending elsewhere. And as was demonstrated with Tabata, the Pirates won't take the self-defeating action of playing a subpar player solely because he's owed a chunk of change. Better case, they've locked in a decent player through at least 2020, or a star through 2022. That's a reasonable risk. 

A Wild Card Game of Inches

This postseason has had no shortage of stories: Utley's slide, Gibbons leaving in Cecil to pitch to Napoli, the Royals' singles vs. the Astros' homers, Price in long relief in a blowout, Molina's thumb...yet to Pirates fans, we're on the outside looking in. We're still stuck on Jake Arrieta's shutout last Wednesday in the wild card game. During last night's Cubs-Cardinals game, a lot of Pirates followers must've said, as my wife did, while watching Arrieta surrender four runs on five hits and two walks in five and two-thirds innings, "Why couldn't he have pitched that way against the Pirates?" After all, he was unhittable against the Bucs: Complete game shutout, five hits and no walks, eleven strikeouts. The Pirates didn't have a chance.

Except...they sort of did. This article by Dave Cameron of FanGraphs is the best post-mortem I've read of the wild card game. It's not long, and it's a good read, but if you want to skip it, Cameron's point is that the Pirates did have a chance against Arrieta. In the sixth inning, Arrieta hit third baseman Josh Harrison. Sandwiched around Harrison's stroll to first, four Pirates batters absolutely smoked four batted balls. Each left their bats traveling over 100 miles per hour. Balls hit that hard are usually base hits, often for extra bases. But instead, the Pirates got:

• Pinch hitter Travis Snider, single
• Right fielder Gregory Polanco, lineout
• Center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reached on error, runners advanced one base
• Left fielder Starling Marte, grounded into double play

Now, this wasn't all bad luck on the Pirates' part. Every one of the batted balls was hit on the ground or on a line drive. None of them were hit in the air, where they would've had a good chance of landing in the outfield for extra bases, or over the fence, and that's due at least in part to Arrieta's skill as a pitcher. But other than Snider, every one of the Pirates' screaming hits went right to a Cubs infielder--Polanco to third baseman Kris Bryant, who made a juggling catch on the fly, and McCutchen and Marte to shortstop Addison Russell, who couldn't handle McCutchen's shot but turned Marte's into an inning-ending twin killing. Let's say those balls were hit just a couple inches to the left or right of where they were. Snider singles up the middle. Polanco's rocket goes down the left field line, resulting in a double, runners on second and third. Harrison's hit, loading the bases. McCutchen singles to center, runners advancing a base, and Marte does the same. Now it's a 4-2 game with one out and the bases loaded. Or maybe Harrison scores on Marte's single, making it 4-3. One out, Cervelli and Walker due up. It would've been a different ballgame, and it turned on a four balls that were nailed, going right into fielders' gloves, instead of just out of their reach. 

Wow, Tough Loss. Now, Please Don't Bounce Back. Give Up.

The Pirates lost to the Cardinals, 3-0, yesterday. It was a tough, tough, loss, as the Pirates had multiple scoring opportunities--they loaded the bases in four different innings--but were unable to push a run across the plate. In all, they left 16 runners on base. That's the most in a nine-inning game in the majors this season, and the most in the majors since the Pirates stranded 16 in a 10-3 win against the Padres in June last year. For Pirates fans, it was reminiscent of the team's early struggles, when it got runners on base but failed to score. 

The National League Central standings are now:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  99 58 .631  --
Pittsburgh 95 62 .605   4
Chicago    91 65 .583 7.5

The Cardinals and Pirates have five more games to play. The Cubs have six.

• If the Cardinals win two of their last five games--they finish their season this weekend in Atlanta, playing the team with the second-worst record in the majors--they'll clinch the division, regardless of what the Pirates do. 
• If the Cards win just one of their next five, the Pirates will have to win every game remaining this year (two against St. Louis, three against Cincinnati) in order to play a one-game playoff on Monday to determine the division champion. The loser of that game will host the Cubs next Wednesday for the wild card play-in.
• If the Cards go 0-5 for the rest of the season and Pirates win every remaining game, the Pirates will win the Central and skip the Wild Card game. If the Cardinals go 0-5 and the Pirates go 4-1, the teams will tie and play on Monday.

Put another way: For the Pirates to win the division outright, they'll have to go 5-0 and the Cardinals 0-5 the rest of the season. That means the Pirates will have to win the next two days against St. Louis and sweep the season-ending series at home against the Reds, who are 10-6 against Pittsburgh this year. It means the Cardinals will have to drop both games against the Pirates and lose three straight on the road against an Atlanta team that hasn't won three straight against a team with a winning record since June and has easily the worst record in the majors since the All-Star Break. For the Pirates to host the Cardinals Monday to determine the championship, they still have to win both of the remaining St. Louis games, and they can lose one game to the Reds or the Cardinals can win one game against the Braves. They go 5-0 and the Cardinals 1-4, or they go 4-1 and the Cardinals 0-5.

Anything is possible. But the scenarios I described are highly, highly unlikely. They're sufficiently unlikely that we can safely say they're not going to happen.

How about the Cubs, though? Are the Pirates at risk of losing home field advantage in the wild card game next Wednesday? The Cubs will be the home field team if they finish with a better overall record than the Pirates or if the teams are tied, as the first tiebreaker for determining home field advantage is head-to-head record. The Cubs won the season series against Pittsburgh, 11-8. So in order for the Pirates to play the wild card game at home, they need to finish ahead of the Cubs. The Cubs start a three-game series against the Reds tonight and have a three-game set against the Brewers this weekend, all on the road.

• If the Cubs sweep both series, the Pirates will still finish ahead of them in the standings if they go 3-2.
• If the Cubs go 5-1, the Pirates will need to go 2-3.
• If the Cubs go 4-2, the Pirates will need to win just one game.
• If the Cubs don't win four of their remaining six, the Pirates will host the wild card game regardless of what they do in their remaining games. 

Both the Brewers and Reds have been playing pretty bad ball of late. Over the past couple weeks, the Reds have the worst record in baseball, 3-10, and the Brewers are tied for the third worst, 4-9. The Cubs have beaten up on both teams this year, going 11-5 against Milwaukee and 10-6 against Cincinnati. Still, winning all six games is going to be hard, particularly since only one will be started by the unstoppable Jake Arrieta. So let's say the Cubs go 5-1. If the Pirates lose tonight, the Cardinals will clinch the division. It's not hard to see the Pirates winning Wednesday's Gerrit Cole-Tyler Lyons mismatch against a hung over Cardinals team. Then they have to take just one of three over the weekend, against a Reds team that's playing out the string, in order to stay ahead of the Cubs. 

So my hope for the Pirates is that, since winning the division is now effectively out of reach, they lose tonight and start giving players days off. They've played 29 games in the last 30 days. Neil Walker's had one day off. Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte have had two. Jordy Mercer and Gregory Polanco have missed only four. Francisco Cervelli has caught all but six games. Five relievers have appeared in twelve or more games. Give them some time off. Let the bruises heal and sore muscles recover. Let them sleep in and sharpen their mental edge. Accept the inevitability of losing the division title and accept the likelihood of hosting the wild card game. The Cubs will start Arrieta. The Pirates will need all the advantage they can get.

Since The Break

Some tidbits about the Pirates since the All-Star break:

• They're 33-21, tied with the Cardinals and Rangers for the fourth-best record in all of baseball, trailing the Blue Jays (37-15), Mets (35-19), and Cubs (35-20). So yes, the four best records in the National League since the break are those of the Mets followed by the three top NL Central teams.
• Their starting pitchers have been mediocre: 4.18 ERA, ninth in the NL, and a 20-20 won-lost record. They've probably been somewhat unlucky, allowing the second-highest batting average on balls in play and the fifth-lowest strand rate (baserunners not coming around to score). Those both tend to be measures of luck more than skill. 
• The bullpen, though...3.12 ERA, third in the league, although helped by the third-highest strand rate in the league. Addressing the question of overuse, Pirates relievers have thrown the sixth most innings since the break but faced the seventh most batters and thrown the eighth most pitches--they've continued to be effective.
• The offensive has come alive. Seventh in the league in runs before the break, they're third since.

Looking at the offense, here are the team's hitters (minimum 40 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star Break.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	H1	Diff
Jung Ho Kang	50	187	33	59	14	0	11	29	0	2	10	46	.316	.373	.567	.939	.732	+.207
Andrew McCutchen	52	189	37	58	9	1	10	36	2	2	34	53	.307	.415	.524	.939	.892	+.047
Mike Morse	28	43	5	14	3	1	1	4	0	0	5	12	.326	.408	.512	.920	NA	NA
Pedro Alvarez	51	140	20	36	4	0	11	28	1	0	14	50	.257	.327	.521	.848	.733	+.115
Francisco Cervelli	45	152	20	47	6	3	2	9	0	0	22	28	.309	.401	.428	.829	.766	+.063
Gregory Polanco	52	220	31	63	14	3	5	20	7	3	16	43	.286	.335	.445	.780	.653	+.127
Starling Marte	51	186	31	53	11	2	3	19	10	2	5	29	.285	.338	.414	.752	.784	-.032
Sean Rodriguez	47	84	12	25	6	0	1	7	0	2	2	24	.298	.337	.405	.742	.589	+.153
Aramis Ramirez	41	145	13	36	10	0	5	28	0	0	10	17	.248	.297	.421	.718	NA	NA
Neil Walker	52	176	21	42	7	3	6	25	0	0	18	28	.239	.299	.415	.713	.755	-.042
Josh Harrison	21	58	9	16	2	0	0	3	1	3	5	9	.276	.354	.310	.664	.696	-.032
Travis Ishikawa	28	48	4	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	4	16	.250	.308	.354	.662	NA	NA
Chris Stewart	22	49	1	14	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	9	.286	.308	.286	.593	.702	-.109
Jordy Mercer	20	58	4	12	2	0	0	6	0	1	7	14	.207	.288	.241	.529	.615	-.086

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/14/2015.

In the table, "H1" refers to the player's OPS in the first half of the season, i.e., up to the All-Star break. "Diff" is the difference between his second and first half OPS. For Morse and Ramirez, both of whom were acquired via trade after the break, the stats shown are only those accumulated with the Pirates. The league average OPS for position players in the second half is .736, so the dividing line between above- and below-average Pirates falls between Rodriguez and Ramirez.

A few things seem apparent from the table:

• The Pirates need Jung Ho Kang in the lineup. He's lost playing time to Aramis Ramirez at third and to Jordy Mercer at shortstop. He's been pretty clearly a better hitter than both, and only Mercer carries a notably superior glove. 
• There's been talk of platooning Polanco and Harrison in right. On paper, that makes sense: Harrison has a .718 OPS against left-handed pitchers, while Polanco's is just .555. But Polanco's been a different hitter since the break. His OPS against lefties was .356 (!) before the break, .707 since. Small sample warning--that .707 is based on only 55 plate appearances--but the difference between Polanco and Harrison against southpaws has been pretty small.
• Harrison's platoon advantage makes more sense to me at second, where Neil Walker has a .770 OPS against right-handed pitchers but only .597 against lefties.
• The platoon of Alvarez and Morse at first base is quite effective at the plate, though it's cringe-worthy in the field. 

So if I'm Clint Hurdle, here's whom I'd play:

C: Cervelli, with Stewart giving him a breather

1B: Alvarez against righties, Morse against lefties, Ishikawa as late-inning defensive replacement

2B: Walker against righties, Harrison against lefties

SS: Kang, Mercer as late-inning defensive replacement with Kang moving over to third

3B: Ramirez against lefties, Harrison and Ramirez splitting time against righties as the situation dictates

LF: Marte

CF: McCutchen

RF: Polanco

But seriously. Since Mercer returned from the disabled list on August 23, the Pirates have started Mercer at short and Ramirez at third in six of their 21 games, or 29% of them. They're 10-5 in games that Kang's started and 3-3 in games that he hasn't. I'm all in favor of getting players occasional rest, but this man's basically been Andrew McCutchen at the plate in the second half of the season. Get him in the lineup.

How Bad is the Pirates' Defense?

On April 21, the Pirates were leading the Cubs 8-6 when closer Mark Melancon entered the game to start the ninth inning. A single, double, walk, single, strikeout, and ground out later, the Cubs had a 9-8 lead that they'd hold in the last of the ninth. Melancon had a blown save. 

Melancon ran off a streak of 35 straight successful save opportunities until August 18 against Arizona. As in the Cubs game in April, the Pirates had an 8-6 lead starting the eighth. As in the Cubs game, Melancon blew the save. Unlike in April, though, it's hard to pin the blame on Melancon. Pinch hitter Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a grounder that went under the glove of third baseman Jung Ho Kang for an error. Pinch hitter Jake Lamb struck out and A.J. Pollock popped out. The game should have been over. But because of Kang's error, there were only two outs. Second baseman Aaron Hill singled, putting runners on first and second. Paul Goldschmidt hit a grounder to first, which should have been, again, the third out of the inning, but it bounced off first baseman Sean Rodriguez into right field, where Gregory Polanco had a hard time picking it up. Inciarte and Hill scored, game tied, save blown. The Pirates went on the win in 14 innings, but Melancon blew his first save after 35 straight on two unearned runs caused by two errors.

This has been an issue for the Pirates this year. They've scored runs: 4.2 per game, fifth most in the league. The pitchers' 3.15 ERA is the second-lowest. But they've given up 0.4 unearned runs per game, the second most in the league. The Pirates play smart baseball, shifting their infielders to put them in position to make outs. But you can't make outs if you can't catch the ball. 

How bad has the Pirates defense been? Let's look at it in three ways.

Traditional stats. The Pirates have made 96 errors so far this season, the most in the National League. Of them, 57 have been fielding errors, also most in the league, and they've made 39 throwing errors, tied for the sixth most. The team fielding percentage of .982 is the third worst in the league, ahead of only the Brewers and Phillies.

A lot of the focus on defense has been on first baseman Pedro Alvarez, whose 18 errors leads major league first baseman by eleven and puts him on a pace to challenge former Pirates Donn Clendenon (24 errors in 1966) and Kevin Young (23 errors in 1999) for the most errors by a National League first baseman in the past 50 years. But there have been problems all over the diamond. Pirates first basemen and right fielders lead the league in errors. Pirates third basemen are third in errors, and Pirates catchers are tied for third. Pirates center fielders are tied for sixth, and the team's second basemen are tied for eighth. The only positions at which the Pirates' error totals have been below average are shortstop (tied for tenth), left field (tied for second to last), and pitcher (second to last). So yeah, they've made a lot of errors. That's not good.

Less Traditional Stats. Defensive Efficiency Rating, or DER, measures the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. It's not completely precise, because it includes an estimate of total plays made, but it's pretty close. The best-fielding teams in the National League, as measured by DER, are the Giants, Mets, and Reds. Each has turned 70% or more of all balls in play into outs. The Pirates, at 68.1%, are tenth. The league average is 68.7%. So they're below-average, but not at the bottom of the list. Atlanta, Washington, Milwaukee, Colorado, and Philadelphia all rate lower. 

The company Inside Edge provides another way of looking at fielding. It looks at all balls in play and calculates the likelihood that an out will be made. Inside Edge divides batted balls into six categories: 0% likelihood of becoming an out, 1%-10%, 10%-40%, 40%-60%, 60%-90%, and 90%-100%. The Pirates have been OK in the middle of the range. They've converted 29% of batted balls in the 10%-40% range into outs, the eighth highest rate in the league. They've turned 49% of balls in the 40%-60% into outs, seventh highest. And they've converted 80% in the 60%-90% range, the fifth most. All of those figures say average to me. But on the extremes...the Pirates have been successful at the second lowest rate in the league on balls that Inside Edge calculates as 1%-10% likely and 90%-100% likely. In other words, they don't make the hardest plays, and they mess up the easy plays. 

Advanced Stats. There are three measures that estimate runs saved by defense: Total Zone Fielding Runs (from BaseballProjection.com), Defensive Runs Saved (from Baseball Information Systems), and Ultimate Zone Rating runs (from FanGraphs.com, calculated by Mitchel Lichtman). Each methodology looks at every batted ball and attempts to determine the likelihood with which the ball would be fielded. Critics decry advanced fielding stats as numerical hocus-pocus, but they're based on careful observations of all plays. The Pirates are seventh in Defensive Runs Saved, eleventh in Ultimate Zone Rating, and tied for twelfth in Total Zone. The average of those three ratings in tenth.

Conclusion. The Pirates are below average, arguably bad, but not the worst. (That title would seem to be fought between the Phillies and Padres, with the Brewers weighing in.) They won't win any Gold Gloves around the infield, though their aggressive use of shifts minimizes the damage (except at first, where Alvarez really does play like a DH). The outfield has a good left fielder, a solid if overrated* center fielder, and a talented but erratic right fielder. The value the catchers bring is more measured by strikes gained and balls avoided than anything else. This isn't a team built to have an airtight defense. But an upgrade at first, and more focus on making the easier plays, would help a lot.

*Pirates fans: Don't jump on me. I'm not saying Cutch is a bad fielder. I'm saying--and the stats will back me up on this--that he's a below average center fielder. A below average center fielder in the majors is still a great fielder. It's just that when your peer group includes the likes of Cain, Hamilton, Kiermaier, Martin, Pillar, et al, it's tough to be above average. 

Pirates At the Trade Deadline

UPDATE, JULY 23: The Pirates have traded for Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

Friday, July 31 is Major League Baseball's trade deadline. That's not really true: It's the non-waiver trade deadline. After the 31st, teams can still trade (and they will), but traded player must clear waivers first.* So while there will still be trades after next Friday, there won't be as many, and they won't involve as many stars.

Every fan of a team with a hope of making the postseason wishes their team would make a trade by the deadline. The problem is, fans are usually unrealistic. I heard a Mets fan express hope that the Mets, who are starved for offense, would pursue Padres left fielder Justin Upton, who's a free agent after this season. The fan suggested the Mets could offer Jon Niese (who's arguably the team's No. 5 starter), Rafael Montero (who hasn't pitched since April due to a rotator cuff injury), Zack Wheeler (out for the year following Tommy John surgery), and Bartolo Colon (who is 42 and has a 6.00 ERA over his last ten starts). If you want a top player who's signed for a few years--say, Phillies starter Cole Hamels--you're going to have to give up top prospects or major league-ready farm talent. Even if you want a two-month rental, like Upton, the Padres have the option of keeping him, giving him a qualifying offer over the winter and, when he signs with another club, getting a draft pick after the first round next summer for him. So unless you're going to offer at least the equivalent of a second-round draft pick, you're not going to make a deal. If the Mets call the Padres and offer a No. 5 starter, a 42-year-old, and a couple injured guys to the Padres for Upton, the Padres are going to hang up the phone on them.

With that in mind, it's tough to do trades at this point in the season. The buyers are looking for the one or two players that can push them into the postseason or improve their chances of success when they're there. There aren't that many players like that around. Sellers are looking for a king's ransom of prospects. Teams aren't willing to give them up. So don't expect a flurry of deals.

For the Pirates, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to pursue pitching. Sure, Hamels or the White Sox's Jeff Samardzija or the Reds' Johnny Cueto would be great to have, but the latter two are free agents after the season, and besides, the Pirates are in good shape in their rotation. Any of those three pitchers would be an upgrade over Charlie Morton or Jeff Locke, but the Pirates are well-positioned to make the postseason with the rotation they have now. In the postseason, you need an ace (Gerrit Cole) to pitch a Wild Card game, but you really need only four starters anyway because of all the off days. I just don't see a lot of upside for the Bucs from adding a frontline starter.

Similarly, the Pirates' bullpen, with the second lowest ERA in the National League, isn't a source of weakness. I could see the merit of adding someone to give some of the relievers a breather--the Pirates have four of the 22 pitchers in the league with 43 or more appearances, the most in the league--but as I've pointed out, the relievers' pitch counts aren't particularly worrisome. I'd say that unless there's an injury we don't know about, the Pirates don't have a big need to add significant pitching help. The Phillies would like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon, and Jonathan Papelbon would like to leave Philadelphia, but he's not the type of player the Pirates seem to need.

As I pointed out over the All-Star Break, the Pirates are very good at four positions (catcher, second base, left field, center field), OK at one (third base), and bad at three (first base, shortstop, right field). Let's look at the weaknesses:

• Shortstop: Jordy Mercer, probably out until September with a sprained knee, was having a lousy year, but that's mostly due to a terrible start:  .171/.225/.198 slash line through May 23. Since then, he's hit a respectable .290/.333/.395. I expect the Pirates to make do with Jung Ho Kang's bat and Pedro Florimon's glove at short until Mercer's healthy rather than pursue a trade.
• Right field: Yesterday, the Padres optioned third baseman Will Middlebrooks to AAA. Middlebrooks, you may recall, was a sensation when he was called up by the Red Sox in 2012. In 24 games in May that year, he batted .316 with six homers. In 23 games in June, he hit .288 with four homers, and in 18 July starts, he hit .294 with another three homers. So in his first three months, he had a .301/.331/.525 slash line, hitting a home run every 18 at bats. Since then, he's batted .212/.259/.364, with a homer every 28 at bats. It's looking a lot as if those first 236 at bats were a head fake, with the real Middlebrooks emerging in the 849 at bats since. That's the risk of reading too much into a young player's hot start.

The reason I'm telling you this about Middlebrooks is that Gregory Polanco started his career batting .306/.392/.435 over his first 21 games with a home run every 28 at bats. Since then, he's hit .227/.299/.329 with a homer every 73 at bats. His OPS of .628 since his hot start is similar to Middlebrooks's .625. So what do we believe, Polanco's first 85 at bats or the 516 since?

The Pirates could definitely seek an upgrade over Polanco, but there are two problems. First, he's not exactly like Middlebrooks. He was a year younger than Middlebrooks in his rookie year, and a more highly-touted prospect. He's a decent, if sometimes erratic, right fielder, while Middlebrooks is, depending on the fielding measure, around an average third baseman. Second, Polanco is one of only two left-handed batters in the Pirates lineup--three if you count switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker--and he's been solidly average (but not bad) against right-handed pitching (.258/.333/.382 slash line this year; the league average for non-pitchers is .260/.323/.402). So what probably would make the most sense for the Pirates would be a right handed-hitting platoon partner for Polanco, rather than getting a full-time outfielder (like Upton) who'd put Polanco on the bench or in AAA. I'd be surprised to see the Pirates go after a full-time replacement, but a right-handed fill-in, like the Phillies' Jeff Francoeur, whose lifetime .786 OPS against southpaws is almost double Polanco's .428. Francoeur, rumored to have been discussed by the Phils and Pirates, is another player who's never come close to living up to the hype generated by a fast start, but he has the virtue of being cheap: $950,000 for 2015, with no obligations beyond this year. Another possibility is an encore performance from the Reds' Marlon Byrd, who contributed to the Pirates' winning season in 2013 after a waiver-period trade from the Mets in 2013, though he's 37 and nearing the end of the road.

• First base: Like Polanco, Pedro Alvarez is a left-handed hitter. Like Polanco, he's been much more effective against right-handed pitchers (.237/.307/.437, all 12 of his home runs) than lefties (.179/.233/.214). Unlike Polanco, he's an absolute butcher in the field, with more errors here in mid-July (15) than any National League first baseman's had in a full season since Prince Fielder had 15 in 2011. A good-fielding right-handed hitter could relegate Alvarez to the bench (or get him traded). There are two first basemen widely assumed to be on the trading block: The Brewers' Adam Lind and the Red Sox's Mike Napoli. Lind is having a good season at the bat (.293/.374/.515), and isn't too expensive (signed for $7.5 million this year, $8 million team option or $500,000 buyout for 2016) but he's a below-average (though not terrible) fielder and the Brewers, in rebuilding mode, are likely to hold out for top prospects (i.e., they're unlikely to want Alavarez). Napoli bats right and is a good fielder but, at 33, could be nearing the end of his career: following an injury-riddled (he missed 43 games) .248/.370/.419 last year, he's batted .198/.296/.353 this season, making him the worst-hitting regular first baseman in the American League this year. So the upgrade over Alvarez from Napoli, other than in the field, is unclear.

So it looks like this for the Pirates: The most obvious need is a right-handed bat, to platoon with, or possibly replace, Alvarez or Polanco in the lineup. Given who's available, and the Pirates' understandable (given their small-market status) unwillingness to part with top prospects, I do expect a deal, albeit likely a smaller one, for a right-handed hitter who may not be with the club next year. Byrd, with a .918 OPS against lefties this year, seems to me to be the most likely choice. But fans hoping for a blockbuster are probably going to be disappointed. 

At The 54% Point

The All-Star break is often called the season's halfway point. Games before the break are in the first half, and games after are in the second half. But that's a misnomer. This year, as in pretty much every year, every team's played over 81 (half of 162) games, ranging from 86 to 91 games. The Pirates have played 88, so they're at the 88/162 = 54% point, not the halfway point.

I'm going to assess them in a manner somewhat similar to my repeating "Next Up" feature, in which I describe the Pirates' upcoming opponent.

How Are They Doing? Following two thrilling, extra-inning, come-from-behind victories over the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals, giving the Pirates three wins in a four-game series, the Pirates are 53-35. They're 2.5 games behind the Cardinals, and they have the second-best record in the entire National League. They're percentage points behind the Kansas City Royals for the second-best record in the majors. Following a 12-10 April, the fifth best record in the league, and a sixth-best 14-14 May, the Pirates have been the hottest team in baseball, going 17-9 in June (a game behind the Cardinals and half a game behind the Blue Jays) and a major league-best 10-2 so far in July. They've scored 4.05 runs per game, the sixth most in the league, and allowed 3.32, the second fewest (trailing only the Cardinals' 2.97). Let's break down their 53-35 record:

• They're below .500, at 17-21, against teams in their own division, but 15-7 against the National League East, 11-2 against the National League West, and 10-5 in interleague play. The latter record represents the most wins and (tied with the Giants) the best record in interleague play in the National League.
• They have the second-best home record, 32-16, and the second-best road record, 21-19. They trail the Cardinals in each.
• Following the heroics of the last two games, they have a 6-7 record in extra innings. Despite what some writers and other pundits may say, there's a big dollop of luck in extra-innings records, so the Pirates' record indicates they've been neither particularly lucky nor unlucky in games that go past nine innings.
• They're 20-13 in one-run games, the best record in the league. A team's record in one-run games is also affected by luck. The most famous recent example is the Baltimore Orioles, whose record in one-run games was a crazy good 29-9 in 2012, easily the best in the majors, but slipped to 20-31 in 2013, rebounding to a league-best 32-23 last season. Sportswriters attributed the team's outstanding record in close games in 2012 and 2014 to the team's spirit and Buck Showalter's managerial acumen but never explained what happened in 2013. (And the Orioles are 12-14 in one-run games this year, the fourth-worst record in the American League.) The point is: The Pirates are unlikely to keep up their torrid pace in close games. I'll get more into this later.
• They have the second-best record in the league, 43-29, against right-handed starting pitchers, and the second-best against lefty starters as well, 10-6.
• The Pirates have beaten up on bad teams, going 34-17 against teams with a record below .500, the third-best record in the league. They've been less effective against teams playing .500 or better, but that's to be expected,. Their 19-18 record against teams at .500 or better is the fifth best in the league after the Cardinals, Nationals, Cubs, and Giants.
• The two largest analytically-oriented baseball websites, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs, calculate playoff odds for each team. Baseball Prospectus estimates the Pirates have an 87.6% chance of making the postseason, 53.1% chance of getting to the Divisional Series (i.e., past the wild card game), and 4.7% chance of making the World Series. Each of those figures trail only the division-leading Cardinals, Nationals, and Dodgers in the National League. FanGraphs is a bit more optimistic, pegging the Pirates as 95.4% likely to make the postseason (trailing the Cardinals and Dodgers), 67.6% likely to make the Divisional Series (behind the Cards, Nats, and Dodgers), with an 8.6% chance of winning the World Series (behind the Nationals and Dodgers). So they look like a postseason team, as evidenced by their 5.5 game lead over the Cubs for the first wild card and 6.5 game lead over the Mets for the second.
• This is only the 24th Pirates team to win 53 or more games over its first 88. Of the other 23, there were three World Series champions (1909, 1925, and 1971), four National League champions (1901, 1902, 1903, and 1927), five additional teams that made the postseason (1972, 1975, 1990, 1991, and 2013), and eleven that didn't play in the postseason (1893, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1921, 1923, 1929, 1938, 1962 and 1966). Excluding 1893, when there wasn't a postseason, 55% of Pirates teams that won at least 53 of their first 88 games have made the postseason, including a perfect six-for-six since divisional play began in 1969. Of course, last year's Brewers were only a game worse than the Pirates at this point, and their participation in the postseason was dependent on whether they watched it on TV.

What's Going Right and Wrong? Let's break this down a little differently. I'm going to look at records both year to date and for the 30 days ending Sunday (the last day before the All-Star Break). I'll list the raw numbers and where the Pirates rank in the National League. The default for rankings is most (e.g., the Pirates have stolen 63 bases, the third most in the league) except where noted otherwise.

Let's start with hitting. Feel free to skip the bullet points, which list a bunch of numbers, and jump to the next paragraph.

• Batting average: .256 year to date (sixth in the league), .261 past 30 days (fifth)
• On base percentage: .317 YTD (eighth), .330 past 30 (second)
• Slugging percentage: .381 YTD (ninth), .377 past 30 (tenth)
• Home runs: 67 YTD (thirteenth), 17 past 30 (fifteenth)
• Stolen bases: 63 YTD (third), 19 past 30 (tied for sixth)
• Strikeout percentage: 20.5% of plate appearances YTD (ninth fewest), 20.3% past 39 (eighth fewest)
• Walk percentage: 6.9% of plate appearances YTD (eleventh), 7.5% past 30 (seventh)
• Batting average on balls in play: .309 YTD (fifth), .321 past 30 (fourth)
• Ground ball percentage: 48.6% YTD (third), 48.5% past 30 (second)
• Soft (weak) contact: 18.4% of batted balls YTD (tenth), 18.5% past 30 (tenth)
• Percentage of pitches in the strike zone: 47.5% YTD (eleventh), 47.5% past 30 (tenth)
• Swings at pitches outside the strike zone: 31.1% YTD (ninth fewest), 30.1% past 30 (sixth fewest)

So the Pirates have been so-so offensively year to date but improved lately, in large part due to increased patience: fewer swings on pitches outside the strike zone, resulting in more bases on balls. The biggest problem's been a propensity to hit balls on the ground, coupled with an inability to hit home runs. They're related, of course, but even looking just at the team's fly balls, only 9.5% have cleared the fence, the sixth fewest in the league. Their batting average on balls in play compares to a league average of .301 and may indicate a little bit of luck in terms of where their batted balls fall in. Overall, the Pirates have been OK with the bat, though with a disappointing lack of power.

Moving on to starting pitching:

• ERA: 3.05 YTD (second lowest), 3.07 past 30 (sixth lowest)
• Strikeout percentage: 21.1% YTD (sixth), 19.2% past 30 (seventh)
• Walk percentage: 7.4% YTD (tenth lowest), 7.0% past 30 (tenth lowest)
• Batting average on balls in play: .300 YTD (ninth lowest), .297 past 30 (ninth lowest)
• Ground ball percentage: 53.4% YTD (second), 53.1% past 30 (second)
• Soft contact: 22.0% of batted balls YTD (first), 25.7% past 30 (first)
• Percentage of pitches in the strike zone: 45.0% YTD (fifteenth), 45.1% past 30 (twelfth)
• Swings at pitches outside the strike zone: 31.1% YTD (sixth), 32.1% past 30 (seventh)

You can't argue with the team's ERA, and the starters have followed the Pirates gameplan of the past few years: Induce a lot of weak contact on the ground. Nearly 30% of the pitches thrown by Pirates starters have been sinking (two-seam) fastballs, the most in the league by far; the Mets are second at 24%. They don't pound the zone (last in the league in pitches in the strike zone), so if batters stop chasing pitches outside the strike zone, the walk rate could climb. So far, though, so good. 

Now, the relievers:

• ERA: 2.48 YTD (second lowest), 2.17 past 30 (lowest)
• Strikeout percentage: 21.5% YTD (tenth), 21.9% past 30 (eighth)
• Walk percentage: 6.6% YTD (lowest), 5.3% past 30 (lowest)
• Batting average on balls in play: .284 YTD (fourth lowest), .258 past 30 (third lowest)
• Ground ball percentage: 49.9% YTD (second), 47.0% past 30 (fifth)
• Soft contact: 23.2% of batted balls YTD (first), 21.9% past 30 (third)
• Percentage of pitches in the strike zone: 46.6% YTD (eleventh), 46.7% past 30 (tenth)
• Swings at pitches outside the strike zone: 34.3% YTD (first), 35.2% past 30 (first)

The relief corps has been successful at just about everything. Like the starters, they induce a lot of weak contact and ground balls. They throw the second-fewest "straight" (four-seam) fastballs and (by a good margin) the most sinking fastballs in order to get these results. They are also the embodiment of the On The Field Of Play mantra, it's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. They are middling at the number of pitches thrown to the strike zone, but no team's relievers are more adept at getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone. It's worth noting that Pirates relievers have pitched the seventh most innings in the league, 272.1, but, as I've pointed out, due to their efficiency, they've thrown the fourth fewest pitches, easing concerns about overwork.

So, in summary, the offense has been OK, the starting pitching very good, and the relief pitching great. What's left...oh yeah, fielding. The Pirates have committed 62 errors, the third most overall. They're tied for first with 39 fielding errors and eighth with 23 throwing errors. Because of their grounder-inducing pitching staff and aggressive use of infield shifts, they're second in the league in double plays, with 252, but this is not a good fielding team. By one advanced metric, Defensive Runs Saved, they're ninth in the league; by another, Ultimate Zone Rating, they're thirteenth. They've turned 68.8% of batted balls into outs, exactly the league average. 

Who's Hot and Who's Not? Instead of going through players, I'm going to go position by position. I'm going to rely heavily on OPS+, which is on base percentage plus slugging, adjusted for ballpark effects.

Catcher: Pirates catchers--roughly 70% Francisco Cervelli and 30% Chris Stewart--are third in the league in OPS+. This has been the most significantly positive offensive surprise for the club this year. Cervelli also ranks fifth in the league in pitch framing, the ability of catchers to get strike calls on borderline pitches. Keeping the two catchers healthy (especially Cervelli, who is 52 plate appearance shy of matching his career high) will be a key objective. 

First Base: From positive surprise to negative: the Pirates (75% Pedro Alvarez, 20% Sean Jlast in slugging (.395). On top of that, Alvarez leads the league in errors with 14--no other first baseman has more than five--and he's last in advanced fielding metrics.

Second Base: Neil Walker's played about 85% of the team's innings at second, with Josh Harrison getting almost all of the rest. Walker's been fine. The Pirates are fifth in the league in OPS+ at second base, and Walker's having his basic Neil Walker season. His OPS+ since 2010 (100 is league average): 119, 108, 112, 114, 127, 111. He hasn't matched last year's blip, but he remains one of the top second basemen in the league. He's also turning 30 in September, and he's a free agent after this season, so this could be the last season with the Pirates for the Pittsburgh native.

Shortstop: Another disappointment so far, as Jordy Mercer and Jung Ho Kang have combined (at about an 80/20 split) to deliver the third lowest OPS+ in the league. Mercer, who hit 12 homers last year, has only two so far this season, while Kang has been a considerably worse hitter at shortstop (.250/.290/.344 slash line) than at third (.289/.380/.416), probably more a matter of bad luck than anything.

Third Base: The Pirates have been OK--ninth in the league in OPS+, split between Harrison and Kang about 55/45--but Harrison has declined from last year's breakout. In 2014, he batted .315/.347/.490, with an OPS+ of 134. In 2013, he batted .250/.290/.409 with an OPS+ of 96. When he went on the disabled list earlier this month with a thumb injury, he was hitting .279/.313/.384 with an OPS+ of 94, looking a lot more like the 2013 Harrison than the 2014 version.

Left Field: I was surprised to see that the Pirates rate only ninth in OPS+, considering that Starling Marte is having a good season. He's already tied his career high for home runs (13) and has a 117 OPS+, 17% better than the average player. He's also been the best fielder on the team. But then I realized that he's been the Pirates' left fielder only about 80% of the time, as he's also played some center and missed six games. Here's the problem with the Pirates left fielders:

Player	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Starling Marte	74	313	288	40	77	14	0	13	47	13	5	16	78	.267	.317	.451	.769
Everybody else	14	72	87	4	11	0	0	1	2	1	1	4	10	.164	.222	.209	.431

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/16/2015.

Here's how you read that table: The Pirates had better hope Starling Marte stays healthy.

Center Field: OK, I was worried, but come on, on the morning of April 28, Andrew McCutchen was batting .175 with a .299 on base percentage and .302 slugging percentage. His OPS was .600. Since then, he's batted .325/.417/.550, a .967 OPS. Pirates center fielders (it's been McCutchen over 92% of the time) have the highest OPS+ in the league, second in the majors behind the Mike Trout-led Angels.

Right Field: Another problem area, as Gregory Polanco, despite his recent heroics, is primarily responsible (he's been the team's right fielder about three quarters of the time) for the Pirates ranking 13th in the league in OPS+ in right field: tenth in batting, 12th in on base percentage, and 14th in slugging percentage. They've hit only four home runs. Last year, there were concerns that Polanco, who was 22 when he was called up in June, was rushed to the majors. He posted an 84 OPS+, indicating that we was 16% below average as a hitter, in 2014. This year, he's the same guy, with an 83 OPS+.

So on offense, the Pirates have four good positions (catcher, second base, center field, and left field), one okay position (third base) and three problem areas (first base, shortstop, and right field). Jordy Mercer has played better of late (.282/.318/.369 slash line over the last 30 days). Polanco (.216/.333/.307) and Alvarez (.230/.266/.365) have not. Polanco and Alvarez both bat left, and both are overmatched by left-handed pitchers. You think the Pirates might be looking to add a right-handed bat?

Pitching: There's really not a lot to complain about here. Charlie Morton has the highest ERA of the starters, at 4.15, and a worryingly low strikeout rate (13.6% of batters faced; the league average is 19.2%). A.J. Burnett is probably not going to sustain a 2.11 ERA, and I've expressed my concern that the relievers have been ridden hard (though not as hard as the raw numbers indicate, due to their efficiency in keeping pitch counts low). The sparkling team ERA of 2.86 is likely to rise, though I'm basing that more on logic--no team's had an ERA that low over a full season since 1972, when it prompted the American League to adopt the designated hitter--than anything that seems unusually lucky about the performance to date.

What's the Outlook? Matt Trueblood (who's become one of my favorite baseball analysts; his stuff is consistently spot-on) wrote a pretty compelling piece on Baseball Prospectus arguing that the Pirates are due for a second-half decline, largely due to two factors: First, that record in one-run games is pretty unsustainable and more likely due to luck rather than a sustainable skill. Second, while the Pirates have had a fairly soft schedule to date, they'll face almost exclusively teams with a winning record (other than divisional foes Cincinnati and Milwaukee) after the break: Nine against the Cubs and Cardinals, six against the Dodgers, four against the Nationals, and three each against the Mets and Royals.

I have to agree with Matt. But playing worse in the second half doesn't mean finishing out of the money for the playoffs. The Cardinals are a very good team that just got its best hitter back. This could be the third straight wild card year for the Bucs.