Pirates At the Trade Deadline

UPDATE, JULY 23: The Pirates have traded for Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

Friday, July 31 is Major League Baseball's trade deadline. That's not really true: It's the non-waiver trade deadline. After the 31st, teams can still trade (and they will), but traded player must clear waivers first.* So while there will still be trades after next Friday, there won't be as many, and they won't involve as many stars.

Every fan of a team with a hope of making the postseason wishes their team would make a trade by the deadline. The problem is, fans are usually unrealistic. I heard a Mets fan express hope that the Mets, who are starved for offense, would pursue Padres left fielder Justin Upton, who's a free agent after this season. The fan suggested the Mets could offer Jon Niese (who's arguably the team's No. 5 starter), Rafael Montero (who hasn't pitched since April due to a rotator cuff injury), Zack Wheeler (out for the year following Tommy John surgery), and Bartolo Colon (who is 42 and has a 6.00 ERA over his last ten starts). If you want a top player who's signed for a few years--say, Phillies starter Cole Hamels--you're going to have to give up top prospects or major league-ready farm talent. Even if you want a two-month rental, like Upton, the Padres have the option of keeping him, giving him a qualifying offer over the winter and, when he signs with another club, getting a draft pick after the first round next summer for him. So unless you're going to offer at least the equivalent of a second-round draft pick, you're not going to make a deal. If the Mets call the Padres and offer a No. 5 starter, a 42-year-old, and a couple injured guys to the Padres for Upton, the Padres are going to hang up the phone on them.

With that in mind, it's tough to do trades at this point in the season. The buyers are looking for the one or two players that can push them into the postseason or improve their chances of success when they're there. There aren't that many players like that around. Sellers are looking for a king's ransom of prospects. Teams aren't willing to give them up. So don't expect a flurry of deals.

For the Pirates, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to pursue pitching. Sure, Hamels or the White Sox's Jeff Samardzija or the Reds' Johnny Cueto would be great to have, but the latter two are free agents after the season, and besides, the Pirates are in good shape in their rotation. Any of those three pitchers would be an upgrade over Charlie Morton or Jeff Locke, but the Pirates are well-positioned to make the postseason with the rotation they have now. In the postseason, you need an ace (Gerrit Cole) to pitch a Wild Card game, but you really need only four starters anyway because of all the off days. I just don't see a lot of upside for the Bucs from adding a frontline starter.

Similarly, the Pirates' bullpen, with the second lowest ERA in the National League, isn't a source of weakness. I could see the merit of adding someone to give some of the relievers a breather--the Pirates have four of the 22 pitchers in the league with 43 or more appearances, the most in the league--but as I've pointed out, the relievers' pitch counts aren't particularly worrisome. I'd say that unless there's an injury we don't know about, the Pirates don't have a big need to add significant pitching help. The Phillies would like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon, and Jonathan Papelbon would like to leave Philadelphia, but he's not the type of player the Pirates seem to need.

As I pointed out over the All-Star Break, the Pirates are very good at four positions (catcher, second base, left field, center field), OK at one (third base), and bad at three (first base, shortstop, right field). Let's look at the weaknesses:

• Shortstop: Jordy Mercer, probably out until September with a sprained knee, was having a lousy year, but that's mostly due to a terrible start:  .171/.225/.198 slash line through May 23. Since then, he's hit a respectable .290/.333/.395. I expect the Pirates to make do with Jung Ho Kang's bat and Pedro Florimon's glove at short until Mercer's healthy rather than pursue a trade.
• Right field: Yesterday, the Padres optioned third baseman Will Middlebrooks to AAA. Middlebrooks, you may recall, was a sensation when he was called up by the Red Sox in 2012. In 24 games in May that year, he batted .316 with six homers. In 23 games in June, he hit .288 with four homers, and in 18 July starts, he hit .294 with another three homers. So in his first three months, he had a .301/.331/.525 slash line, hitting a home run every 18 at bats. Since then, he's batted .212/.259/.364, with a homer every 28 at bats. It's looking a lot as if those first 236 at bats were a head fake, with the real Middlebrooks emerging in the 849 at bats since. That's the risk of reading too much into a young player's hot start.

The reason I'm telling you this about Middlebrooks is that Gregory Polanco started his career batting .306/.392/.435 over his first 21 games with a home run every 28 at bats. Since then, he's hit .227/.299/.329 with a homer every 73 at bats. His OPS of .628 since his hot start is similar to Middlebrooks's .625. So what do we believe, Polanco's first 85 at bats or the 516 since?

The Pirates could definitely seek an upgrade over Polanco, but there are two problems. First, he's not exactly like Middlebrooks. He was a year younger than Middlebrooks in his rookie year, and a more highly-touted prospect. He's a decent, if sometimes erratic, right fielder, while Middlebrooks is, depending on the fielding measure, around an average third baseman. Second, Polanco is one of only two left-handed batters in the Pirates lineup--three if you count switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker--and he's been solidly average (but not bad) against right-handed pitching (.258/.333/.382 slash line this year; the league average for non-pitchers is .260/.323/.402). So what probably would make the most sense for the Pirates would be a right handed-hitting platoon partner for Polanco, rather than getting a full-time outfielder (like Upton) who'd put Polanco on the bench or in AAA. I'd be surprised to see the Pirates go after a full-time replacement, but a right-handed fill-in, like the Phillies' Jeff Francoeur, whose lifetime .786 OPS against southpaws is almost double Polanco's .428. Francoeur, rumored to have been discussed by the Phils and Pirates, is another player who's never come close to living up to the hype generated by a fast start, but he has the virtue of being cheap: $950,000 for 2015, with no obligations beyond this year. Another possibility is an encore performance from the Reds' Marlon Byrd, who contributed to the Pirates' winning season in 2013 after a waiver-period trade from the Mets in 2013, though he's 37 and nearing the end of the road.

• First base: Like Polanco, Pedro Alvarez is a left-handed hitter. Like Polanco, he's been much more effective against right-handed pitchers (.237/.307/.437, all 12 of his home runs) than lefties (.179/.233/.214). Unlike Polanco, he's an absolute butcher in the field, with more errors here in mid-July (15) than any National League first baseman's had in a full season since Prince Fielder had 15 in 2011. A good-fielding right-handed hitter could relegate Alvarez to the bench (or get him traded). There are two first basemen widely assumed to be on the trading block: The Brewers' Adam Lind and the Red Sox's Mike Napoli. Lind is having a good season at the bat (.293/.374/.515), and isn't too expensive (signed for $7.5 million this year, $8 million team option or $500,000 buyout for 2016) but he's a below-average (though not terrible) fielder and the Brewers, in rebuilding mode, are likely to hold out for top prospects (i.e., they're unlikely to want Alavarez). Napoli bats right and is a good fielder but, at 33, could be nearing the end of his career: following an injury-riddled (he missed 43 games) .248/.370/.419 last year, he's batted .198/.296/.353 this season, making him the worst-hitting regular first baseman in the American League this year. So the upgrade over Alvarez from Napoli, other than in the field, is unclear.

So it looks like this for the Pirates: The most obvious need is a right-handed bat, to platoon with, or possibly replace, Alvarez or Polanco in the lineup. Given who's available, and the Pirates' understandable (given their small-market status) unwillingness to part with top prospects, I do expect a deal, albeit likely a smaller one, for a right-handed hitter who may not be with the club next year. Byrd, with a .918 OPS against lefties this year, seems to me to be the most likely choice. But fans hoping for a blockbuster are probably going to be disappointed. 

Flyover: Boston Red Sox

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

After finishing last in their division in 2012, 26 games behind the first place Yankees, the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2013. It that makes them a Cinderella team, the clock struck midnight this year, as they're in last place again. Their 59-67 record ties them with the Twins for third-worst in the American League. 

How Are They Doing Lately? On July 31, the Red Sox traded their ace starting pitcher, Jon Lester, and outfielder Jonny Gomes to the A's for left fielder Yoenis Cespedes. They also traded away No. 2 starter John Lackey. With Lester a free agent after the season, this move erased any question whether the Red Sox were throwing in the towel on 2014. Thus far in August, their 11-16 record is fifth-worst in the league (just ahead of the A's at 12-16, coincidentally). They've gotten there by way of a 4.29 ERA, fourth worst in the league, due largely to a terrible 5.38 ERA by their starters, second-worst. On offense, the team's batting .230 over the past 30 days, second worst in the league, with a second-worst .299 on base percentage and league-worst .336 slugging percentage. 

What's Going RIght? The bullpen's been pretty good. Red Sox relievers have made 94 appearances over the past 30 days, partly due to the struggles of the starters, but they've compiled a solid 2.57 ERA, fourth best in the league. They've probably been a little lucky, as both their .264 batting average on balls in play and 7.6% of fly balls leaving the park are far enough below league averages that they're unlikely to be sustained. Further, they've induced swings on only 29% of pitches outside the strike zone, third fewest in the league, violating the On The Field of Play mantra that it's good to throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes. So we could see some backsliding, particularly if the starters keep going just 5.70 innings per start, fourth-fewest in the league over the past month.

On offense, it's pretty hard to find bright spots over the past 30 days, but the Red Sox have had solid defense this year, with both traditional fielding metrics and advanced ones placing the team near the top of the pack in the American League. They've stolen 16 bases and been caught just once so far in August. Granted, that's not a lot of steals, but it's the highest success rate in the league. I'm reaching here.

What's Going Wrong? Oh, everything else. As noted above, the relievers have been good but probably lucky. The starters have been just bad: Lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate in the league over the past month, inability to throw strikes (48% of pitches in the strike zone, third-fewest in the league) or get strikes (swings on 25% of pitches outside the strike zone, second-fewest). Only two starters with over 20 innings pitched (Joe Kelly and Rubby de la Rosa) have an ERA below 5.50, and both of them have walked way too many batters (5.8 per nine innings for Kelly, 4.8 for de la Rosa).

As noted above, the team's compiled the worst- or second-worst batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in the American League over the past 30 days. Has that been partly due to bad luck? Not really: the .282 team batting average on balls in play trails the league average of .292, and that's not enough of a gap to say that the balls just haven't been falling in on a regular basis. They've struck out too much (22% of plate appearances, third-most in the league) and while they're walking a lot (8.4% of plate appearances, second most) they lack the power (19 homers, tied for third-fewest) to drive those walked runners home. 

Who's Hot? DH David Ortiz has a .342/.440/.603 slash line in August so far, ranking third in the league in batting and on base percentage and second in slugging. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia is having a subpar year for him but has been pretty good of late (.297/.333/.414).

The Red Sox's primary setup men are middle relievers Burke Badenhop, Tom Layne, Edward Mujica and Junichi Tazawa. Over the past 30 days, they've pitched in 48 innings, compiling a 1.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP (1.04 excluding intentional walks). They've given up only two homers, both by Tazawa. Another middle reliever, Alex Wilson has a 1.17 ERA and has allowed only ten baserunners in 15.1 innings.

Who's Not? Ortiz has been hot, and three other hitters--Pedroia, Cespedes, and outfielder Daniel Nava--have been OK. Everybody else has been bad. Catcher Christian Vazquez is batting .197 over the past 30 days, with just a .212 slugging percentage, as his production has consisted of 12 singles and a double. First baseman Mike Napoli's hitting .184. Third baseman Will Middlebrooks is batting .200 and has supplemented that batting average with little plate discipline (just four walks) and little power (five doubles, no other extra base hits). Outfielder Brock Holt has supplied no power, either (.289 slugging percentage). And rookie shortstop Xander Bogaerts has seemed lost at the plate, batting .101 with a .130 slugging percentage, a far cry from the remarkably poised 21-year-old who batted .296 with a .412 on base percentage and .481 slugging percentage in last year's postseason.

The most notably bad Red Sox starters of late are Allen Webster (7.28 ERA, more walks than strikeouts), Brandon Workman (7.47 ERA over three starts) and Clay Bucholz (5.50 ERA). Workman's batting average allowed on balls in play is .408, a ridiculously high number that suggests an element of bad luck. 

The notable exception from the list of successful Red Sox relievers above is closer Koji Uehara, who's compiled a 5.56 ERA over the past 30 days, with 16 hits allowed in 11.1 innings en route to two blown saves. He still has a 2.25 ERA on the year, but that compares to last year's otherworldly 1.09 and raises concerns that at age 39, he's nearing the end of the road. 

What's the Outlook? The Red Sox are playing for 2015. Probably the most important thing the team could accomplish in the remainder of the year would be to get youngsters Bogardts (age 21), Middlebrooks (age 25), and Vazquez (24) squared away for next year. This year's a last-place waste.

Designated Hitter: Part-Time or Full-Time?

I listen the Baseball Prospectus "Effectively Wild" podcast during the week. The two hosts, Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller of BP, cover a couple topics each day in a short podcast that is perfect as a walking-the-dog accompaniment. I don't know about you, but I often wait to listen to podcasts untill I have a batch of them cued up, then I listen back-to-back. Effectively Wild's my exception to that rule. I usually listen to it the same day I download it. It's that good.

Anyway, Sam and Ben were recently talking about the DH. You know that David Ortiz was World Series MVP. You also know that when the Red Sox were in St. Louis, they had to bench Mike Napoli and move Ortiz to first. Sam and Ben wondered whether the advantage of a full-time DH is countered by a lack of roster flexibility. The Yankees, for example, had Travis Hafner as their DH for 72 games but otherwise used the position to rehab or rest convalescing players--16 games for Alex Rodriguez, 15 for Curtis Granderson, four for Derek Jeter, etc. The lack of a full-time DH allowed the Yankees to use the position as needed given what was going on with their roster, giving them more flexibility. Actually, the Yankees, whose DHs were last in batting (.189), on base percentage (.276), AND slugging (.307) are probably not the best example of this approach. To find out which strategy's better--full-time or part-time DH--I ranked every team's DH position by OPS and then checked out how many games their primary DH played. Here's the list:

Rk		BA	OBP	SLG	OPS ▾	Primary DH, Games
1	BOS	.310	.398	.560	.958	David Ortiz, 129
2	KCR	.290	.377	.412	.789	Billy Butler, 150
3	SEA	.265	.333	.448	.781	Kendrys Morales, 122
4	DET	.302	.354	.425	.779	Victor Martinez, 139
5	TOR	.253	.347	.425	.772	Adam Lind, 61
6	LAA	.264	.341	.414	.754	Albert Pujols, 65
7	CLE	.239	.340	.414	.753	Jason Giambi, 58
8	BAL	.234	.289	.415	.704	Danny Valencia, 42
9	OAK	.230	.309	.389	.698	Seth Smith, 55
10	TEX	.245	.313	.385	.698	Lance Berkman, 65
11	TBR	.214	.307	.373	.680	Luke Scott, 63
12	CHW	.219	.290	.384	.674	Adam Dunn, 74
13	MIN	.214	.294	.341	.634	Ryan Doumit, 49
14	HOU	.198	.276	.337	.613	Chris Carter, 47
15	NYY	.189	.276	.307	.583	Travis Hafner, 72

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/18/2013.

Wow. That's pretty stark. Four teams had a DH that played regularly. Those four teams got the most out of the position. Simple as that.

Except it's not. I looked at the prior five seasons, 2008-2012, and calculated the correlation between games played by each AL team's primary DH and the team's DH OPS. It turns out that there is no correlation at all. None (correlation coefficient = -0.01). The most DH production during those five years was from the 2011 Red Sox, who had Ortiz for 135 games. But the leading team in 2012 was the Yankees, who got fewer games out of their primary DH than any team in that period:

Rk		G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Melky Mesa	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
2	Andruw Jones	18	38	4	11	4	0	3	10	6	9	.289	.378	.632	1.009
3	Robinson Cano	9	32	6	9	1	0	3	5	4	6	.281	.378	.594	.972
4	Derek Jeter	25	103	18	40	5	0	3	12	10	18	.388	.439	.524	.963
5	Raul Ibanez	28	92	16	26	5	0	7	22	8	18	.283	.340	.565	.905
6	Nick Swisher	12	47	8	13	3	0	3	11	6	15	.277	.370	.532	.902
7	Eric Chavez	19	54	9	15	2	0	3	7	9	10	.278	.375	.481	.856
8	Alex Rodriguez	38	150	22	46	9	0	5	20	14	38	.307	.371	.467	.837
9	Russell Martin	4	11	2	3	1	0	0	2	2	4	.273	.385	.364	.748
10	Eduardo Nunez	5	13	2	4	1	0	0	3	0	1	.308	.286	.385	.670
11	Jayson Nix	3	6	1	1	1	0	0	3	1	1	.167	.286	.333	.619
12	Mark Teixeira	4	17	3	2	0	0	2	4	0	5	.118	.118	.471	.588
13	Curtis Granderson	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	.250	.000	.250
14	Steve Pearce	2	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.167	.000	.167
15	Casey McGehee	2	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
16	Ichiro Suzuki	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
	Team Total	153	583	93	171	32	0	29	100	62	132	.293	.362	.497	.860

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/18/2013.

In 2009, the Royals had a more or less full-time DH, Mike Jacobs, who was lousy: he hit .224/.296/.374 in 106 games, as Kansas City finished last with a .655 team OPS for DHs. But the next year, the Mariners mix-and-matched (nobody more than 52 games) to a last-place .194/.269/.340 line, which in turn wasn't as bad as this year's Yankees, who had no DH appear in over half their games. 

So what's the conclusion? There really isn't one, in terms of strategy. Teams with a full-time DH sometimes do great, and sometimes do poorly. Teams that use the position as a combination gym and respite site sometimes do great, sometimes do poorly. The lack of positional flexibility is outweighed by performance when you have a good full-time DH, but isn't when you don't. It all depends on the personnel.

I suppose the next step would be to see how AL teams with a full-time DH fare in the Series compared to AL teams that don't. Another day.