When the Pirates chose not to re-sign first baseman Pedro Alvarez for the 2016 season, it wasn't a total shock, given his one-dimensional offense and cover-your-eyes defense. Moving second baseman Neil Walker wasn't a surprise either, given his advancing age and pending free agency, and it'd been rumored for months. But last week the Pirates made a trade that was unexpected.
On December 12, the Pirates traded right-handed starting pitcher Charlie Morton to the Phillies for right-handed minor league pitcher David Whitehead. The trade, coming the Saturday after baseball's winter meetings ended, flew under the radar. It didn't get heavily analyzed, as the Alvarez and Walker moves were. Heck, it's taken me nearly a week to talk about it. (Hey, I've been busy.)
You probably hadn't heard of Whitehead prior to the trade. Me neither. Whitehead pitched last year at the Phillies' Clearwater team in the Class A Florida State League. He was 9-11 with a 4.44 ERA. The league average ERA was 3.22. He struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings and walked 3.4, a 1.8 ratio. The league averages were 7.2, 2.9, and 2.5, respectively. He was 23 last season, and the average Florida State League pitcher was 23 as well. So there's nothing here that screams out "future rotation stalwart." About the most exciting thing about Whitehead is that he attended the same high school as Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Larkin, and Buddy Bell. I'm sure he's a hard worker and I wish him much success, but he seems pretty unlikely to help the Pirates in 2016.
I think a more accurate way of looking at the trade is that the Pirates swapped the $9-$17.5 million that Morton will earn ($8 million in 2016 and either $9.5 million or a $1 million buyout in 2017) for whatever tiny amount Whitehead will earn in Altoona. The move's a salary dump.
That makes three. Alvarez and Walker were both arbitration-eligible, both likely to make more than they did in 2015: $5.75 million and $8 million, respectively. This year, they would've made, I don't know, $17 million collectively? Morton brings that up to $25 million. In return, they're taking on, by way of the Walker trade, Jon Niese's $9 million salary in 2016. So net, they're up about $16 million, maybe more. They're talking about spending it on pitching. The big-name free agents pitchers are gone--the Pirates weren't contenders for them anyway--but we'll see if they can grab a bargain arm or two and maybe add some depth at first base.
As for Morton, well, if you ever wasted your time in the comments section of any Pirates news articles or blogs, well, let's say he had his detractors. In seven seasons in Pittsburgh, he never stayed healthy enough to start 30 games in a season--he topped out with 29 in 2011, the only year he qualified for the ERA championship by pitching over 162 innings--and his Pirates ERA of 4.39 was 16% worse than the league average. He was one of the players profiled in Travis Sawchik's Big Data Baseball, an exemplar of pitching coach Ray Searage's philosophy of throwing sinking fastballs that produce a lot of ground balls. In 2011, 59% of the balls hit against him were grounders, the third most in the National League. In 2013, he allowed 63% grounders, the most in the league. In 2014, he was second at 56%. This year he was fifth at 57%. (In all years, I chose pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched. Morton pitched only 50.1 innings in 2012.) Over the past five years, there have been 36 National League pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched. Of them, Morton's 58% ground ball rate is easily the highest. He earned his Ground Chuck nickname.
Charlie Morton shouldn't be all that hard to replace. He's a slightly below-average pitcher with durability issues that aren't likely to get better now that he's 32. But he does need to be replaced. Playing in baseball's toughest division, with the perennial strong Cardinals and a Cubs squad that has made significant additions, the Pirates do need to do something to keep up.
Showing posts with label Pedro Alvarez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pedro Alvarez. Show all posts
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Adios, El Toro
In a somewhat surprising development, the Pirates did not offer a 2016 contract to first baseman Pedro Alvarez by last night's 11:59 PM deadline. He is now a free agent.
The reasons this is surprising are that
Losing the regular first baseman. Alvarez played 906.1 innings at first base last season, 61% of the team's total. Sean Rodriguez, who doesn't have the bat to be a regular first baseman, played 326.2 innings (22%), often as a late-innings defensive replacement. Michael Morse, acquired via a trade deadline deal, played 116.2 innings (8%). The rest of the innings were divided among players who likely won't be Pirates next year. Morse would appear to be in line to take over the position. He's by no means a good fielder, though he's better than Alvarez, who was one of the worst fielders in baseball in 2015. The questions with Morse are his health (he turns 34 in March and has stayed in the lineup enough to qualify for the batting championship only once, in 2011, when he was 29) and his bat (he was decent in his brief time in Pittsburgh but 2015 overall was his second bad season of the past three). One of the Pirates' top prospects, Josh Bell, was shifted from right field to first base in 2014 and hit well last year at AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis (combined .317/.393/.446 slash line). He's not a big bopper--30 minor league home runs in over 1,600 plate appearances--but he's well-regarded; MLB.com rated the No. 34 prospect in baseball before the season. Morse may wind up holding Bell's place until the 23-year-old is called up in May or so.
Loss of a lefty bat. The Pirates' lineup at this point has just two left-handed hitters: Right fielder Gregory Polanco and switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker, who's a much better hitter from the left side. Morse bats right, and Bell's a switch hitter. So yes, the Pirates look vulnerable against right-handed pitching. But just looking at handedness doesn't tell the whole story. Adjusted for their park, the Pirates were the third-best hitting team against right-handed pitching last year (using FanGraphs' wRC+ metric), trailing only the Giants and Dodgers and ahead of all of their National League Central opponents. Righty swingers Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, Starling Marte, and Francisco Cervelli were all above-average hitters against right-handed pitchers in 2015, minimizing the platoon disadvantage.
Loss of a home run bat. Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 2015. McCutchen was second with 23. Alvarez was third, behind McCutchen and Walker, in 2014, but he led the team with 36 in 2013 and trailed McCutchen by just one in 2012. Overall, from 2012 to 2015, he hit 111 home runs, the most on the team (McCutchen's second with 100) and, believe it or not, the second most in the National League during that period, trailing only Miami's Giancarlo Stanton's 125. But here's the catch: Of the 21 players with 100 or more home runs over the past four years, Alvarez has the third-worst park-adjusted OPS. Add his defense to the mix, and he doesn't bring much more to the table than his home run bat. It's interesting to compare him to the player who ranks just behind him in OPS+, Mark Trumbo, on that list:
Trumbo bats right, Alvarez left, and Trumbo's a year older. Alvarez walks more but strikes out more too. Other than that, they're pretty similar. They both have subpar on base percentages, Alvarez because of a low batting average, Trumbo because of a lack of walks. They have identical slugging percentages, largely a consequence of their almost-identical home run totals. On defense, the team employing both would be well-advised to hide their gloves.
Alvarez is now looking for work. Trumbo? Yesterday he was traded by the Mariners to the Orioles. There were two throw-ins--Baltimore got a relief pitcher who turns 26 next month who's pitched in 24 major league games with a 6.30 ERA, Seattle got a 29-year-old catcher with a .228 lifetime batting average in 148 games--but the trade was mostly Trumbo for, well, nothing. What this tells you is that while home runs are nice--great, even--if you can't do something else, like play defense or hit for an average or run or get on base a lot or hit doubles, there isn't that much demand for your services, particularly when you enter your arbitration years and start costing millions.
They at least could've traded him. They tried, according to the Post-Gazette's Bill Brink. They didn't find a market. See the last sentence of the preceding paragraph.
The reasons this is surprising are that
- He was the Pirates' regular first baseman.
- He was one of the few left-handed bats in a strongly right-handed lineup.
- He was the team's leading home run hitter.
- He wasn't all that expensive, earning $5.75 million in 2015.
- By non-tendering (as the lingo goes) him, they'll receive nothing in return, rather than trading him.
Losing the regular first baseman. Alvarez played 906.1 innings at first base last season, 61% of the team's total. Sean Rodriguez, who doesn't have the bat to be a regular first baseman, played 326.2 innings (22%), often as a late-innings defensive replacement. Michael Morse, acquired via a trade deadline deal, played 116.2 innings (8%). The rest of the innings were divided among players who likely won't be Pirates next year. Morse would appear to be in line to take over the position. He's by no means a good fielder, though he's better than Alvarez, who was one of the worst fielders in baseball in 2015. The questions with Morse are his health (he turns 34 in March and has stayed in the lineup enough to qualify for the batting championship only once, in 2011, when he was 29) and his bat (he was decent in his brief time in Pittsburgh but 2015 overall was his second bad season of the past three). One of the Pirates' top prospects, Josh Bell, was shifted from right field to first base in 2014 and hit well last year at AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis (combined .317/.393/.446 slash line). He's not a big bopper--30 minor league home runs in over 1,600 plate appearances--but he's well-regarded; MLB.com rated the No. 34 prospect in baseball before the season. Morse may wind up holding Bell's place until the 23-year-old is called up in May or so.
Loss of a lefty bat. The Pirates' lineup at this point has just two left-handed hitters: Right fielder Gregory Polanco and switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker, who's a much better hitter from the left side. Morse bats right, and Bell's a switch hitter. So yes, the Pirates look vulnerable against right-handed pitching. But just looking at handedness doesn't tell the whole story. Adjusted for their park, the Pirates were the third-best hitting team against right-handed pitching last year (using FanGraphs' wRC+ metric), trailing only the Giants and Dodgers and ahead of all of their National League Central opponents. Righty swingers Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, Starling Marte, and Francisco Cervelli were all above-average hitters against right-handed pitchers in 2015, minimizing the platoon disadvantage.
Loss of a home run bat. Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 2015. McCutchen was second with 23. Alvarez was third, behind McCutchen and Walker, in 2014, but he led the team with 36 in 2013 and trailed McCutchen by just one in 2012. Overall, from 2012 to 2015, he hit 111 home runs, the most on the team (McCutchen's second with 100) and, believe it or not, the second most in the National League during that period, trailing only Miami's Giancarlo Stanton's 125. But here's the catch: Of the 21 players with 100 or more home runs over the past four years, Alvarez has the third-worst park-adjusted OPS. Add his defense to the mix, and he doesn't bring much more to the table than his home run bat. It's interesting to compare him to the player who ranks just behind him in OPS+, Mark Trumbo, on that list:
| Player | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | 25-28 | 573 | 2,136 | 1,918 | 240 | 456 | 78 | 4 | 111 | 318 | 13 | 3 | 198 | 610 | .238 | .310 | .456 | .767 | $6.90 mil |
| Trumbo | 26-29 | 533 | 2,171 | 2,000 | 250 | 501 | 87 | 9 | 102 | 320 | 11 | 10 | 154 | 558 | .251 | .304 | .456 | .760 | $5.75 mil |
Trumbo bats right, Alvarez left, and Trumbo's a year older. Alvarez walks more but strikes out more too. Other than that, they're pretty similar. They both have subpar on base percentages, Alvarez because of a low batting average, Trumbo because of a lack of walks. They have identical slugging percentages, largely a consequence of their almost-identical home run totals. On defense, the team employing both would be well-advised to hide their gloves.
Alvarez is now looking for work. Trumbo? Yesterday he was traded by the Mariners to the Orioles. There were two throw-ins--Baltimore got a relief pitcher who turns 26 next month who's pitched in 24 major league games with a 6.30 ERA, Seattle got a 29-year-old catcher with a .228 lifetime batting average in 148 games--but the trade was mostly Trumbo for, well, nothing. What this tells you is that while home runs are nice--great, even--if you can't do something else, like play defense or hit for an average or run or get on base a lot or hit doubles, there isn't that much demand for your services, particularly when you enter your arbitration years and start costing millions.
They at least could've traded him. They tried, according to the Post-Gazette's Bill Brink. They didn't find a market. See the last sentence of the preceding paragraph.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Since The Break
Some tidbits about the Pirates since the All-Star break:
In the table, "H1" refers to the player's OPS in the first half of the season, i.e., up to the All-Star break. "Diff" is the difference between his second and first half OPS. For Morse and Ramirez, both of whom were acquired via trade after the break, the stats shown are only those accumulated with the Pirates. The league average OPS for position players in the second half is .736, so the dividing line between above- and below-average Pirates falls between Rodriguez and Ramirez.
A few things seem apparent from the table:
- They're 33-21, tied with the Cardinals and Rangers for the fourth-best record in all of baseball, trailing the Blue Jays (37-15), Mets (35-19), and Cubs (35-20). So yes, the four best records in the National League since the break are those of the Mets followed by the three top NL Central teams.
- Their starting pitchers have been mediocre: 4.18 ERA, ninth in the NL, and a 20-20 won-lost record. They've probably been somewhat unlucky, allowing the second-highest batting average on balls in play and the fifth-lowest strand rate (baserunners not coming around to score). Those both tend to be measures of luck more than skill.
- The bullpen, though...3.12 ERA, third in the league, although helped by the third-highest strand rate in the league. Addressing the question of overuse, Pirates relievers have thrown the sixth most innings since the break but faced the seventh most batters and thrown the eighth most pitches--they've continued to be effective.
- The offensive has come alive. Seventh in the league in runs before the break, they're third since.
Looking at the offense, here are the team's hitters (minimum 40 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star Break.
| Player | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | H1 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jung Ho Kang | 50 | 187 | 33 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 46 | .316 | .373 | .567 | .939 | .732 | +.207 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 52 | 189 | 37 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 53 | .307 | .415 | .524 | .939 | .892 | +.047 |
| Mike Morse | 28 | 43 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | .326 | .408 | .512 | .920 | NA | NA |
| Pedro Alvarez | 51 | 140 | 20 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 50 | .257 | .327 | .521 | .848 | .733 | +.115 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 45 | 152 | 20 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 28 | .309 | .401 | .428 | .829 | .766 | +.063 |
| Gregory Polanco | 52 | 220 | 31 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 43 | .286 | .335 | .445 | .780 | .653 | +.127 |
| Starling Marte | 51 | 186 | 31 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 29 | .285 | .338 | .414 | .752 | .784 | -.032 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 47 | 84 | 12 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 24 | .298 | .337 | .405 | .742 | .589 | +.153 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 41 | 145 | 13 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 | .248 | .297 | .421 | .718 | NA | NA |
| Neil Walker | 52 | 176 | 21 | 42 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 28 | .239 | .299 | .415 | .713 | .755 | -.042 |
| Josh Harrison | 21 | 58 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | .276 | .354 | .310 | .664 | .696 | -.032 |
| Travis Ishikawa | 28 | 48 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | .250 | .308 | .354 | .662 | NA | NA |
| Chris Stewart | 22 | 49 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .286 | .308 | .286 | .593 | .702 | -.109 |
| Jordy Mercer | 20 | 58 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | .207 | .288 | .241 | .529 | .615 | -.086 |
In the table, "H1" refers to the player's OPS in the first half of the season, i.e., up to the All-Star break. "Diff" is the difference between his second and first half OPS. For Morse and Ramirez, both of whom were acquired via trade after the break, the stats shown are only those accumulated with the Pirates. The league average OPS for position players in the second half is .736, so the dividing line between above- and below-average Pirates falls between Rodriguez and Ramirez.
A few things seem apparent from the table:
- The Pirates need Jung Ho Kang in the lineup. He's lost playing time to Aramis Ramirez at third and to Jordy Mercer at shortstop. He's been pretty clearly a better hitter than both, and only Mercer carries a notably superior glove.
- There's been talk of platooning Polanco and Harrison in right. On paper, that makes sense: Harrison has a .718 OPS against left-handed pitchers, while Polanco's is just .555. But Polanco's been a different hitter since the break. His OPS against lefties was .356 (!) before the break, .707 since. Small sample warning--that .707 is based on only 55 plate appearances--but the difference between Polanco and Harrison against southpaws has been pretty small.
- Harrison's platoon advantage makes more sense to me at second, where Neil Walker has a .770 OPS against right-handed pitchers but only .597 against lefties.
- The platoon of Alvarez and Morse at first base is quite effective at the plate, though it's cringe-worthy in the field.
So if I'm Clint Hurdle, here's whom I'd play:
C: Cervelli, with Stewart giving him a breather
1B: Alvarez against righties, Morse against lefties, Ishikawa as late-inning defensive replacement
2B: Walker against righties, Harrison against lefties
SS: Kang, Mercer as late-inning defensive replacement with Kang moving over to third
3B: Ramirez against lefties, Harrison and Ramirez splitting time against righties as the situation dictates
LF: Marte
CF: McCutchen
RF: Polanco
But seriously. Since Mercer returned from the disabled list on August 23, the Pirates have started Mercer at short and Ramirez at third in six of their 21 games, or 29% of them. They're 10-5 in games that Kang's started and 3-3 in games that he hasn't. I'm all in favor of getting players occasional rest, but this man's basically been Andrew McCutchen at the plate in the second half of the season. Get him in the lineup.
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
How Bad is the Pirates' Defense?
On April 21, the Pirates were leading the Cubs 8-6 when closer Mark Melancon entered the game to start the ninth inning. A single, double, walk, single, strikeout, and ground out later, the Cubs had a 9-8 lead that they'd hold in the last of the ninth. Melancon had a blown save.
Melancon ran off a streak of 35 straight successful save opportunities until August 18 against Arizona. As in the Cubs game in April, the Pirates had an 8-6 lead starting the eighth. As in the Cubs game, Melancon blew the save. Unlike in April, though, it's hard to pin the blame on Melancon. Pinch hitter Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a grounder that went under the glove of third baseman Jung Ho Kang for an error. Pinch hitter Jake Lamb struck out and A.J. Pollock popped out. The game should have been over. But because of Kang's error, there were only two outs. Second baseman Aaron Hill singled, putting runners on first and second. Paul Goldschmidt hit a grounder to first, which should have been, again, the third out of the inning, but it bounced off first baseman Sean Rodriguez into right field, where Gregory Polanco had a hard time picking it up. Inciarte and Hill scored, game tied, save blown. The Pirates went on the win in 14 innings, but Melancon blew his first save after 35 straight on two unearned runs caused by two errors.
This has been an issue for the Pirates this year. They've scored runs: 4.2 per game, fifth most in the league. The pitchers' 3.15 ERA is the second-lowest. But they've given up 0.4 unearned runs per game, the second most in the league. The Pirates play smart baseball, shifting their infielders to put them in position to make outs. But you can't make outs if you can't catch the ball.
How bad has the Pirates defense been? Let's look at it in three ways.
Traditional stats. The Pirates have made 96 errors so far this season, the most in the National League. Of them, 57 have been fielding errors, also most in the league, and they've made 39 throwing errors, tied for the sixth most. The team fielding percentage of .982 is the third worst in the league, ahead of only the Brewers and Phillies.
A lot of the focus on defense has been on first baseman Pedro Alvarez, whose 18 errors leads major league first baseman by eleven and puts him on a pace to challenge former Pirates Donn Clendenon (24 errors in 1966) and Kevin Young (23 errors in 1999) for the most errors by a National League first baseman in the past 50 years. But there have been problems all over the diamond. Pirates first basemen and right fielders lead the league in errors. Pirates third basemen are third in errors, and Pirates catchers are tied for third. Pirates center fielders are tied for sixth, and the team's second basemen are tied for eighth. The only positions at which the Pirates' error totals have been below average are shortstop (tied for tenth), left field (tied for second to last), and pitcher (second to last). So yeah, they've made a lot of errors. That's not good.
Less Traditional Stats. Defensive Efficiency Rating, or DER, measures the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. It's not completely precise, because it includes an estimate of total plays made, but it's pretty close. The best-fielding teams in the National League, as measured by DER, are the Giants, Mets, and Reds. Each has turned 70% or more of all balls in play into outs. The Pirates, at 68.1%, are tenth. The league average is 68.7%. So they're below-average, but not at the bottom of the list. Atlanta, Washington, Milwaukee, Colorado, and Philadelphia all rate lower.
The company Inside Edge provides another way of looking at fielding. It looks at all balls in play and calculates the likelihood that an out will be made. Inside Edge divides batted balls into six categories: 0% likelihood of becoming an out, 1%-10%, 10%-40%, 40%-60%, 60%-90%, and 90%-100%. The Pirates have been OK in the middle of the range. They've converted 29% of batted balls in the 10%-40% range into outs, the eighth highest rate in the league. They've turned 49% of balls in the 40%-60% into outs, seventh highest. And they've converted 80% in the 60%-90% range, the fifth most. All of those figures say average to me. But on the extremes...the Pirates have been successful at the second lowest rate in the league on balls that Inside Edge calculates as 1%-10% likely and 90%-100% likely. In other words, they don't make the hardest plays, and they mess up the easy plays.
Advanced Stats. There are three measures that estimate runs saved by defense: Total Zone Fielding Runs (from BaseballProjection.com), Defensive Runs Saved (from Baseball Information Systems), and Ultimate Zone Rating runs (from FanGraphs.com, calculated by Mitchel Lichtman). Each methodology looks at every batted ball and attempts to determine the likelihood with which the ball would be fielded. Critics decry advanced fielding stats as numerical hocus-pocus, but they're based on careful observations of all plays. The Pirates are seventh in Defensive Runs Saved, eleventh in Ultimate Zone Rating, and tied for twelfth in Total Zone. The average of those three ratings in tenth.
Melancon ran off a streak of 35 straight successful save opportunities until August 18 against Arizona. As in the Cubs game in April, the Pirates had an 8-6 lead starting the eighth. As in the Cubs game, Melancon blew the save. Unlike in April, though, it's hard to pin the blame on Melancon. Pinch hitter Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a grounder that went under the glove of third baseman Jung Ho Kang for an error. Pinch hitter Jake Lamb struck out and A.J. Pollock popped out. The game should have been over. But because of Kang's error, there were only two outs. Second baseman Aaron Hill singled, putting runners on first and second. Paul Goldschmidt hit a grounder to first, which should have been, again, the third out of the inning, but it bounced off first baseman Sean Rodriguez into right field, where Gregory Polanco had a hard time picking it up. Inciarte and Hill scored, game tied, save blown. The Pirates went on the win in 14 innings, but Melancon blew his first save after 35 straight on two unearned runs caused by two errors.
This has been an issue for the Pirates this year. They've scored runs: 4.2 per game, fifth most in the league. The pitchers' 3.15 ERA is the second-lowest. But they've given up 0.4 unearned runs per game, the second most in the league. The Pirates play smart baseball, shifting their infielders to put them in position to make outs. But you can't make outs if you can't catch the ball.
How bad has the Pirates defense been? Let's look at it in three ways.
Traditional stats. The Pirates have made 96 errors so far this season, the most in the National League. Of them, 57 have been fielding errors, also most in the league, and they've made 39 throwing errors, tied for the sixth most. The team fielding percentage of .982 is the third worst in the league, ahead of only the Brewers and Phillies.
A lot of the focus on defense has been on first baseman Pedro Alvarez, whose 18 errors leads major league first baseman by eleven and puts him on a pace to challenge former Pirates Donn Clendenon (24 errors in 1966) and Kevin Young (23 errors in 1999) for the most errors by a National League first baseman in the past 50 years. But there have been problems all over the diamond. Pirates first basemen and right fielders lead the league in errors. Pirates third basemen are third in errors, and Pirates catchers are tied for third. Pirates center fielders are tied for sixth, and the team's second basemen are tied for eighth. The only positions at which the Pirates' error totals have been below average are shortstop (tied for tenth), left field (tied for second to last), and pitcher (second to last). So yeah, they've made a lot of errors. That's not good.
Less Traditional Stats. Defensive Efficiency Rating, or DER, measures the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. It's not completely precise, because it includes an estimate of total plays made, but it's pretty close. The best-fielding teams in the National League, as measured by DER, are the Giants, Mets, and Reds. Each has turned 70% or more of all balls in play into outs. The Pirates, at 68.1%, are tenth. The league average is 68.7%. So they're below-average, but not at the bottom of the list. Atlanta, Washington, Milwaukee, Colorado, and Philadelphia all rate lower.
The company Inside Edge provides another way of looking at fielding. It looks at all balls in play and calculates the likelihood that an out will be made. Inside Edge divides batted balls into six categories: 0% likelihood of becoming an out, 1%-10%, 10%-40%, 40%-60%, 60%-90%, and 90%-100%. The Pirates have been OK in the middle of the range. They've converted 29% of batted balls in the 10%-40% range into outs, the eighth highest rate in the league. They've turned 49% of balls in the 40%-60% into outs, seventh highest. And they've converted 80% in the 60%-90% range, the fifth most. All of those figures say average to me. But on the extremes...the Pirates have been successful at the second lowest rate in the league on balls that Inside Edge calculates as 1%-10% likely and 90%-100% likely. In other words, they don't make the hardest plays, and they mess up the easy plays.
Advanced Stats. There are three measures that estimate runs saved by defense: Total Zone Fielding Runs (from BaseballProjection.com), Defensive Runs Saved (from Baseball Information Systems), and Ultimate Zone Rating runs (from FanGraphs.com, calculated by Mitchel Lichtman). Each methodology looks at every batted ball and attempts to determine the likelihood with which the ball would be fielded. Critics decry advanced fielding stats as numerical hocus-pocus, but they're based on careful observations of all plays. The Pirates are seventh in Defensive Runs Saved, eleventh in Ultimate Zone Rating, and tied for twelfth in Total Zone. The average of those three ratings in tenth.
Conclusion. The Pirates are below average, arguably bad, but not the worst. (That title would seem to be fought between the Phillies and Padres, with the Brewers weighing in.) They won't win any Gold Gloves around the infield, though their aggressive use of shifts minimizes the damage (except at first, where Alvarez really does play like a DH). The outfield has a good left fielder, a solid if overrated* center fielder, and a talented but erratic right fielder. The value the catchers bring is more measured by strikes gained and balls avoided than anything else. This isn't a team built to have an airtight defense. But an upgrade at first, and more focus on making the easier plays, would help a lot.
*Pirates fans: Don't jump on me. I'm not saying Cutch is a bad fielder. I'm saying--and the stats will back me up on this--that he's a below average center fielder. A below average center fielder in the majors is still a great fielder. It's just that when your peer group includes the likes of Cain, Hamilton, Kiermaier, Martin, Pillar, et al, it's tough to be above average.
Friday, July 31, 2015
My Team Went to the Trade Deadline and All I Got Was This Lousy Ramirez, Blanton, Soria, Happ, and Morse
I imagine some Pirates fans are disappointed by the team's trade deadline deals. Specifically, the team didn't land the big arms that got dealt (Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Jonathan Papelbon, David Price) nor the big bats (Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Gomez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist). But realistically, that probably wasn't going to happen. Here's why:
- The Pirates aren't looking to take on big salaries. Look, I think this is kind of a BS argument. The city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy, but the Detroit Tigers have the fifth-highest payroll in the majors. Is that because Detroit is a big-revenue market? Of course not; it means the team is owned by a zillionaire who's willing to spend many tens of millions on his baseball team. The Pirates aren't in the same situation, but it's not dictated by the population of Greater Pittsburgh. Whatever, given that constraint, Tulowitzki (will make a minimum of $98 million after this season), Hamels ($76.5 million), Reyes ($46 million) and even Papelbon ($11 million) weren't going to happen.
- A two-month rental doesn't make a lot of sense for the Pirates. Stars who'll become free agents after this season aren't likely to sign with the Pirates, due to the team's salary constraints. So pending free agents would be with the club for only August, September and however long October lasts. That eliminates Price, Kazmir, Cueto, Leake, Zobrist, and Cespedes. Also Gomez, who'll be a free agent after next season (not that the Pirates need a new center fielder).
- A bigger reason rentals don't make sense is the Pirates' place in the standings. They enter play tonight 5.5 games behind the Cardinals, 101 games into the season. Could they overtake the Cardinals and skip the wild card game? Sure, it's possible. Would a Cueto or a Cespedes help? Yes, of course. But realistically, the Pirates have won their league or division 16 times. They have never trailed by 5.5 games or more after 101 games and gone on to win. Giving up prime prospects in pursuit of a divisional title that isn't likely to come? That doesn't make sense. On the other hand, the Pirates are currently three games ahead of the Giants for the first wild card, five ahead of the Cubs, 7.5 ahead of the Mets. Nothing's certain, but they look pretty solid for the wild card, no better or worse. It's hard to justify paying a lot to try to exceed or defend that.
So whom did the Pirates get?
- Aramis Ramirez: Already covered this. He'll fill on at third until Josh Harrison comes back from the disabled list, and will continue to play there when the versatile Harrison plays other positions.
- Joe Blanton: He effectively replaces Vance Worley, who was waived. Most fans have two images of Blanton: The guy who went 2-0 in the 2008 postseason, starting three games that his team, the Phillies, won, en route to the World Series championship; and the arsonist who put up ERAs of 5.33, 5.01, 5.00, 4.99, and a hideous 6.51 from 2010-2013. After taking 2014 off, he signed a one-year contract with the Royals this year, for whom he put up decent numbers: 3.89 ERA, 41.2 innings, 1.20 WHIP, 40 strikeouts and just 6 unintentional walks. He'll fill the role of right-handed long reliever/possible spot starter.
- Joakim Soria: He's probably the best player the Pirates added. He was the Royals' closer from 2008-2011, had Tommy John surgery, and came back as a middle reliever for Texas in 2013. He was the Rangers' closer in 2014 and was traded mid-season to the Tigers, for whom he was the closer this year. He'll take his very good 2.85 ERA and less good 1.8 home runs per nine innings (league average for relievers is 1.0) to the Pirates bullpen, where he'll reduce the workload for his teammates. He'll provide a right-handed counter to left-handed setup man Tony Watson, who had a 1.69 ERA through June 25 and a 7.56 ERA since.
- J.A. Happ: In pitching coach Ray Searage we trust. Happ, a left-handed starter, hasn't had an ERA below 4.00 since 2010, including this year, when he racked up a 4.64 ERA playing for Seattle, which plays in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Yes, the Pirates need a starter now that they've put A.J. Burnett on the disabled list with a sore elbow, but is Happ the answer? Here's a clue: This year he's thrown his four-seam (straight) fastball 49% of the time and his two-seam (sinking) fastball 15%. The Pirates, as you probably know, emphasize sinking pitches that generate ground balls. Before the 2013 season, the Pirates acquired a left-handed starter (like Happ) who threw both types of fastballs (like Happ). The player they signed has virtually eliminated the four-seamer, become a ground-ball stud (seventh highest ground ball percentage), and posted the 14th-lowest ERA in the National League (among 55 ERA qualifiers) in the three seasons since, 3.12. Am I suggesting that J.A. Happ can be the next Francisco Liriano, who's put up those number since 2013? Probably not, but we're talking about the No. 5 guy in the rotation until Burnett comes back, so there isn't a lot of risk. Happ's a free agent after this season, and his performance to date probably dictates a pay cut from the $6.7 million he's making in 2015.
- Mike Morse: I've talked about the Pirates' need to add a right-handed bat. Morse, a right-handed bat that's due $8.5 million in 2016, probably wasn't anybody's first choice. He batted .294 with a .343 on base percentage and a .514 slugging percentage in four years in Washington from 2009-2012, followed by a terrible .215/.270/.381 in 2013 with Seattle and Baltimore in 2013, a .279/.336/.475 rebound with San Francisco last year, and another bad year to date, .213/.276/.313 with the Marlins. He's been injury prone, but his role in Pittsburgh is likely to be that of pinch hitter and right-handed platoon partner for Pedro Alvarez at first, which should reduce wear and tear. He's a bad fielder at first, which constitutes an improvement over Alvarez. He can also play outfield, in the sense that Kardashians can read poetry: It's possible, but you'd rather not see it. He has been worse than useless against left-handed pitching this season (2-for-22, no extra base hits) but over his career, his .271/.331/.473 slash line against southpaws is a lot better than Alvarez's .198/.267/.322.
All told, the Pirates improved themselves, in my view. Maybe not dramatically--Morse gives me flashbacks to Justin Morneau, whom the Pirates acquired at the end of August in 2013 and batted .260 with only 3 RBI over 25 games--but Soria eases pressure on the bullpen, Ramirez and Happ address short-term injury-related needs, and Blanton may be an upgrade over Worley. It's nothing flashy, but the Pirates don't appear to be a team that would benefit from flashy nor be hurt by the lack thereof.
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