Christmas Vacation Catch-Up

I. First Base, Solved. Two days before Christmas, the Pirates signed John Jaso to a two year, $8 million contract. On the surface, this doesn't seem like a defining moment for the 2016 season. Jaso's 32. He's never played in more than 109 games in a season, and over the past three years, he's played an average of 80 games per season. Here are his stats over those years. The last column, the one I labeled POS, lists the positions at which he played, by games.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	POS
2013	29	OAK	70	249	207	31	56	12	0	3	21	2	1	38	45	.271	.387	.372	.759	114	48 C, 17 DH, 1 1B
2014	30	OAK	99	344	307	42	81	18	3	9	40	2	0	28	60	.264	.337	.430	.767	118	54 C, 35 DH
2015	31	TBR	70	216	185	23	53	17	0	5	22	1	2	28	39	.286	.380	.459	.839	132	48 DH, 8 OF

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

There are two nonintuitive things about the Jaso signing. First, he'll play first base for the Pirates. As you can see, over the past three years, he's played exactly one game at first, and that was in 2013. It also, as it happens, was for one inning. The sum total of the remainder of his experience at first base was a game in 2010 in which he played four innings there. So the Pirates signed a first baseman who's played a total of five innings there in his career.

Second, the Pirates' primary first baseman last year was Pedro Alvarez, who was not offered a contract for 2016. Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 150 games last year. Jaso has hit 27 home runs in the last four seasons combined, covering 347 games.

So the Pirates are replacing a slugging first baseman--career total 19 at bats per home run--with a guy who's pretty much never played the position, hits a homer every 43 at bats, and is four years older than the guy he's replacing.

Before I get into why I think the move makes sense, I want to point out two amusing things about the Pirates signing Jaso. First, on December 14, FanGraphs' Eno Sarris wrote a piece entitled "Finding the Pirates (Another) First Baseman," in which he previewed six first base possibilities for the Pirates, concluding:

But there’s one left-handed player left who is younger than the oldest of these options, better offensively than anyone we’ve mentioned so far, has experience playing the position, and offers the potential of a win and a half of production that would boost the Pirates to average all over the field. His name is John Jaso...He won’t cost a prospect, and he could help patch up the worst hole on the field. Plus, he’d return dreadlocks to the field in Pittsburgh, which is fun, if not valuable by traditional metrics.

In other words, Sarris totally nailed the Jaso pickup by the Bucs. Then, when the deal was announced, FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan wrote a typically clever column  entitled "Pirates Sign John Jaso, Obviously." His smart analysis includes this gem:

He’s getting two years, and he’s getting $8 million, and if this isn’t the very most Pirates move, it’s at least in the conversation. It doesn’t get much more Pirates than this.

It's true: The Pirates finding a low-budget, nondescript solution to a problem is what they do best, whether it's Francisco Liriano, Jung Ho Kang, or Francisco Cervelli. Here's why I think Jaso will work for the Pirates.

1. Yes, Jaso's had very limited experience at first, but he spent most of his career as a catcher (repeated concussions probably make that a non-starter in Pittsburgh), and catchers often make a smooth transition to first base. Besides, replacing Alvarez at first isn't exactly a high bar defensively.
2. Look at the on base percentage line his stats. His career average is .361, and he's been above .370 in four of his six major league seasons. You know how many Pirates had an on base percentage in 2015 above .370? One: Andrew McCutchen. (Cervelli was at .370, exactly.) The Pirates had a good offense (fourth in the National League in runs scored), but as I've pointed out, a high on base percentage is highly correlated with scoring runs. Jaso will improve the team in that respect.
3. Jaso bats left. The Pirates have only one other left-handed batter in their lineup: right fielder Gregory Polanco. Compare these two batting lines:

Player	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Player A	681	616	71	142	31	1	30	88	2	1	51	191	.231	.295	.430	.725
Player B	681	594	75	162	46	2	15	67	3	5	74	139	.273	.357	.433	.790

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/28/2015.

Which would you rather have? Obviously, the second batter's better: Way more singles, doubles, and walks compensating for the reduction in home runs. Player A is the Pirates first basemen in 2015. Player B is a hybrid, assuming a platoon of Jaso and Michael Morse. I assumed that the Pirates face, as they did in 2015, about 75% right-handed pitchers and 25% lefties, and I combined Jaso's performance last year against righties (weighted 75%) and Morse's against lefties (weighted 25%). Now, line B is probably overstated, as the Pirates will have batters other than Jaso and Morse get some at bats, and each of them will face a relief pitcher against whom they'll have a platoon disadvantage from time to time. But there's reason to believe that the Jaso/Morse platoon will outperform the Alvarez/Morse/Sean Rodriguez combination of 2015. And that's looking just at offense, not defense.

Finally, Josh Bell is one of the Pirates' top farmhands (ranked No. 34 in baseball before the 2015 season by mlb.com) and the team's first baseman of the future, but he's still raw. He's played only 35 games at AAA, and 2015 was his first season at first base. The Jaso/Morse tandem will keep the position warm as the 23-year-old gains experience in the minors. Once Bell comes up, the Pirates will have a bat to deal at the trade deadline.

II. Andrew McCutchen, Not Solved. The Pirates' best player is signed through 2017, and the club has a certain-to-be-exercised option for 2018 as well. They'll pay McCutchen $13 million in 2016, $14 million in 2017, and $14.75 million in 2018, representing one of the biggest bargains in baseball; he'd probably get twice those amounts on the open market. He turns 32 in October 2018, so the Pirates have him signed for his prime years at below-market prices.

What's wrong with that? Well, it's what happens after the 2018 season. True, he likely won't be the same player then that he is now. This year, at 28, he's showed some signs of slowing down. He batted below .300, with a slugging percentage below .500, for the first time since 2011. With just 11 stolen bases and a 69% success rate, he's really not much of a stolen base threat. He's probably the worst fielder among the Pirates' three outfielders (though, in contrast to the club's defense at first base, that's a pretty high bar). He set a career high for strikeouts in 2015.

But, of course, we're talking about Andrew McCutchen here. He's been the face of franchise that hasn't really had a face since Willie Stargell, and its best all-around player since Barry Bonds and, before him, Roberto Clemente. In an article last week at ESPN, Buster Olney wrote,

It would make sense for the Pirates to sit down with McCutchen and his representatives before the start of the 2016 season, and take their best shot at signing the center fielder to a long-term extension...
Maybe the proposal would provide a platform for talks; maybe McCutchen's side would agree, or at least be willing to haggle some. It's also possible that the Pirates' proposal, within the current context, wouldn't be close to what McCutchen would want in an extension. Maybe McCutchen would prefer to play someplace else, for more money, which is entirely his right...
The sooner there is clarity on this for the Pirates and McCutchen, the better. If McCutchen agreed to terms, then the building anxiety over his situation -- for all involved, including the fans -- would end. (And with time, the price of an extension might only become more expensive).
If the Pirates and McCutchen cannot reach a deal, then the team's leadership would know, moving forward, that his time with the franchise will end. If the Pirates fall behind the Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings next summer, the team could dangle McCutchen in the July trade market and at least begin the process of assessing what they can get in return for him. They could either move him before July 31, or swap him next winter or the winter of 2017-18, leading up to his free agency.

The idea of Neil Walker leaving Pittsburgh was controversial. Can you imagine the club dealing McCutchen? But that's the dilemma it may face: Sign your best player to a long-term extension that will almost certainly overpay him in the out years, or try to trade an asset whose value decreases with every day he moves closer to free agency after the 2018 World Series. 

Ground Chuck No Longer In Stock

When the Pirates chose not to re-sign first baseman Pedro Alvarez for the 2016 season, it wasn't a total shock, given his one-dimensional offense and cover-your-eyes defense. Moving second baseman Neil Walker wasn't a surprise either, given his advancing age and pending free agency, and it'd been rumored for months. But last week the Pirates made a trade that was unexpected. 

On December 12, the Pirates traded right-handed starting pitcher Charlie Morton to the Phillies for right-handed minor league pitcher David Whitehead. The trade, coming the Saturday after baseball's winter meetings ended, flew under the radar. It didn't get heavily analyzed, as the Alvarez and Walker moves were. Heck, it's taken me nearly a week to talk about it. (Hey, I've been busy.)

You probably hadn't heard of Whitehead prior to the trade. Me neither. Whitehead pitched last year at the Phillies' Clearwater team in the Class A Florida State League. He was 9-11 with a 4.44 ERA. The league average ERA was 3.22. He struck out 6.2 batters per nine innings and walked 3.4, a 1.8 ratio. The league averages were 7.2, 2.9, and 2.5, respectively. He was 23 last season, and the average Florida State League pitcher was 23 as well. So there's nothing here that screams out "future rotation stalwart." About the most exciting thing about Whitehead is that he attended the same high school as Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Larkin, and Buddy Bell. I'm sure he's a hard worker and I wish him much success, but he seems pretty unlikely to help the Pirates in 2016.

I think a more accurate way of looking at the trade is that the Pirates swapped the $9-$17.5 million that Morton will earn ($8 million in 2016 and either $9.5 million or a $1 million buyout in 2017) for whatever tiny amount Whitehead will earn in Altoona. The move's a salary dump.

That makes three. Alvarez and Walker were both arbitration-eligible, both likely to make more than they did in 2015: $5.75 million and $8 million, respectively. This year, they would've made, I don't know, $17 million collectively? Morton brings that up to $25 million. In return, they're taking on, by way of the Walker trade, Jon Niese's $9 million salary in 2016. So net, they're up about $16 million, maybe more. They're talking about spending it on pitching. The big-name free agents pitchers are gone--the Pirates weren't contenders for them anyway--but we'll see if they can grab a bargain arm or two and maybe add some depth at first base.

As for Morton, well, if you ever wasted your time in the comments section of any Pirates news articles or blogs, well, let's say he had his detractors. In seven seasons in Pittsburgh, he never stayed healthy enough to start 30 games in a season--he topped out with 29 in 2011, the only year he qualified for the ERA championship by pitching over 162 innings--and his Pirates ERA of 4.39 was 16% worse than the league average. He was one of the players profiled in Travis Sawchik's Big Data Baseball, an exemplar of pitching coach Ray Searage's philosophy of throwing sinking fastballs that produce a lot of ground balls. In 2011, 59% of the balls hit against him were grounders, the third most in the National League. In 2013, he allowed 63% grounders, the most in the league. In 2014, he was second at 56%. This year he was fifth at 57%. (In all years, I chose pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched. Morton pitched only 50.1 innings in 2012.) Over the past five years, there have been 36 National League pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched. Of them, Morton's 58% ground ball rate is easily the highest. He earned his Ground Chuck nickname.

Charlie Morton shouldn't be all that hard to replace. He's a slightly below-average pitcher with durability issues that aren't likely to get better now that he's 32. But he does need to be replaced. Playing in baseball's toughest division, with the perennial strong Cardinals and a Cubs squad that has made significant additions, the Pirates do need to do something to keep up.

Neil Walker: We Knew This Was Coming

I mean, I wrote about it over the summer and updated it last month. Here are the basic facts:

• Neil Walker has been the Pirates' second baseman for six straight seasons. In the entire history of the Pirates, they've had only four players with six or more seasons of 110 games or more at second base: Hall of Famer Bill Mazeroski, with 13; Claude Ritchey, with six from 1901 to 1906, with six; Johnny Ray, with six from 1982 to 1987; and Walker.
• Walker is also a hometown boy, born and raised in the Steel City.
• He's been an above-average hitter every season. Not just above-average among second baseman, a generally weaker-hitting lot, but among all National League hitters, every year.
• He's a switch-hitter, and while he's considerably better batting left (.276/.344/.459 career slash line) than right (.258/.316/.335), that's OK, because nearly four-fifths of his plate appearances are from the left side, and he provided balance to a very right-leaning Pirates lineup. (Although, as I pointed out here, Pirates batters fare well against right-handed pitchers nonetheless.)
• He's generally considered to be an average second baseman, who makes up for somewhat limited range with a strong throwing arm and good positioning.
• He earned $8 million in 2015. He's eligible for his third year of arbitration in 2016, and generally assumed to be in line for a raise to $10-$11 million. He's a free agent after the upcoming season.
• He'll be 31 next September.

So the dilemma for the Pirates was that they had a solid, durable performer in a key position who's going to get both expensive and old in a hurry. As I said in September, if Walker remains an above-average hitter and regular second baseman for each of the next four seasons, he'll be the first player in this century to do so (though Robinson Cano could accomplish it in 2016). So the odds are against him remaining this good as he goes through his thirties, when he's also going to be expensive.

If the Pirates were going to trade him, his value is probably higher during this offseason than it'll be at any time in the upcoming season, since every day closer to his free agency reduces his value to his new team. So the Pirates traded him to the Mets for left-handed starter Jon Niese.

There are two ways to look at the trade. First, what does it do to the Pirates infield? Here's how it looks now:

1B - Michael Morse

2B - Josh Harrison

SS - Jordy Mercer

3B - Jung-Ho Kang

There are a few issues there.

• The last time Morse played even 100 games at first was...well, never. His career high is 85, and that was in 2011. He's been healthy enough to stay in the lineup more than 100 games only three times in his career, and he'll be 34 on Opening Day.
• Harrison has played only 99 games at second in his career, but in fairness, he's been good in those games. He probably represents no downgrade, and very possibly an uptick, on defense compared to Walker. The greater concern is his bat; if you exclude his All-Star 2014 season, he's been a below-average hitter (if only slightly) every year of his career.
• Mercer's just a year younger than Walker and coming off his worst year at bat (.244/.293/.320 slash line).
• I like Kang a lot. When his season ended in September, he was the Pirates' best hitter since the All-Star break. But it's not clear when, or how well, he'll come back from his gruesome injury.

Look, the concerns about Morse and Mercer would be there regardless of Walker's trade. Would the Pirates be better in April with Walker at second and Harrison available to play to third in case Kang isn't ready or needs to be eased into the lineup? Sure. But as I said, every day after the season starts, Walker's value will diminish. The Pirates could keep him as a Kang insurance policy, but his value as a trade piece would erode.

The second way of looking at the trade starts with the realization that the infield isn't the Pirates' only concern. Forty percent of their starting rotation, representing every pitcher with the initials J or A, is gone--A.J. Burnett to retirement, J.A. Happ to a three-year, $36 million free agent contract with Toronto. Those are two holes the team needed to fill. Niese, 29, played second fiddle the Mets' young guns in the starting rotation last year, but he's one of only 19 pitchers in the majors with 140 or more innings pitched in each of the past six seasons, over which he's compiled a 3.86 ERA. Now, I'm not going to overstate things--that's actually a below-average ERA for the period, and last year (4.13 ERA) was not a good one for Niese. Among 38 National League ERA qualifiers, his 15% strikeout rate was the second-lowest, and his 7% walk rate was the 18th highest. On the other hand, here's what I said the last time the Pirates acquired a lefty starter:

In pitching coach Ray Searage we trust...[The] left-handed starter hasn't had an ERA below 4.00 since 2010, including this year, when he racked up a 4.64 ERA playing for Seattle, which plays in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Yes, the Pirates need a starter now that they've put A.J. Burnett on the disabled list with a sore elbow, but is [he] the answer?

That was at the trade deadline this year, and the pitcher was none other than the aforementioned J.A. Happ, who responded with a 7-2 record and a 1.85 ERA in eleven starts in Pittsburgh. And while Happ parlayed his success into his deal with Toronto, Niese is under contract for 2016 ($9 million), 2017 ($10 million team option, $500,000 buyout), and 2018 ($11 million team option, $500,000 buyout). So if Searage can work his magic (possibly getting him to use his sinker more, which he threw just 18% of the time), the Pirates could have a steady No. 3 starter behind Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano for the next three seasons.

Ideally, I suppose, the Pirates would've kept Walker and gotten a pitcher of Niese's caliber or better via free agency. But realistically, that wasn't going to happen. And as good as Walker's been, signing him up for several years--which would've been necessary if the Pirates were to keep him--would have been a huge risk, given to the likely effects of age, especially on a middle infielder. Dealing a year of Walker for three of Niese sounds about right.

That being said, I think it's inevitable that if the Pirates stumble next year, regardless of how Niese does, we're going to hear a lot about how Walker's absence cast a long shadow, or ripped the heart and soul out of the team, or looms over the season, or some hackneyed metaphor.

Will Walker Walk, Updated

From Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan:

Sources: Pirates have been shopping 2B Neil Walker, who could make $10M+ in arbitration this year. Have talked with Baltimore and others.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 21, 2015

I discussed this back in September when speculation about Walker's future emerged. Let me just reiterate this from two months ago:

So does a four-year contract for a 30 year old second baseman who's good, but obviously not quite Robinson Cano, make a lot of sense, regardless of money? No, it probably doesn't. And the conviction behind that "probably" increases if the contract sucks up so much payroll money that it prevents the team from affording younger or better players. 

As I said back then, I'm not completely sold on the alternative to Walker, which, at this point, appears to be Josh Harrison taking over the keystone full time. But I'm even less sold on a lot of money for guy whose best years are likely behind him.

Next Up: The Suddenly Competitive Cincinnati Reds

Not for anything good, mind you. Here are the teams with the eight worst records in the majors as of the All-Star break: 
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 29 62 .319  --
Milwaukee    38 52 .422  9.5
Miami        38 51 .427 10
Colorado     39 49 .443 11.5
Oakland      41 50 .451 12
Cincinnati   39 47 .453 12.5

San Diego    41 49 .456 12.5
Seattle      41 48 .461 13

Here's where it was at the start of September:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 52 80 .394  --
Miami        53 79 .402  1
Colorado     53 76 .411  2.5
Atlanta      54 77 .412  2.5
Cincinnati   54 76 .415  3
Milwaukee    55 75 .423  4

Oakland      58 74 .439  6
Seattle      61 71 .462  9

And today:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 62 97 .390  --
Cincinnati   63 96 .396  1
Atlanta      64 95 .403  2
Colorado     66 93 .415  4
Oakland      66 93 .415  4
Milwaukee    68 91 .428  6

Miami        69 90 .434  7
Detroit      73 85 .462 11.5

Why's this relevant? Well, the worst record earns you the No. 1 pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's valuable. First picks, historically, do considerably better than other picks, even No. 2. So the difference between being the worst and the second-worst is significant. Cincinnati's been making an impressive drive for the that top draft choice! (And what in the world have the Marlins been thinking?)


How Are They Doing Lately? When a team moves up in the ranks of the worst teams in baseball, it's not because they're doing well. The Reds have lost 12 in a row going into the season-ending weekend series at PNC Park. The 1993 Reds also lost 12 straight, and the team could tie the 1930 and 1945 Reds with 13 straight losses tonight. (The all-time franchise record of 19 straight losses, set in 1914, is out of reach.) Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati has the worst record in the league over the last 30 days, 9-19. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, .001 runs per game more than the fourth-worst Cardinals, while giving up 5.6 runs per game, easily the most in the league, over a half a run more than the next-worst Braves.

What's Going Right? I've mentioned this a number of times, but two pitching figures that can reflect luck are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners stranded. Most players and teams tend toward the league averages (.299 batting average on balls in play and 73% strand rate in the National League over the past 30 days). The Reds have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the stranded the lowest percentage of baserunners over the past 30 days, indicating they've probably been a little unlucky. 

What's Going Wrong? Over the past 30 days, the Reds are eleventh in the league in batting (.248), 13th in on base percentage (.308), and 13th in slugging (.388). They've struck out the fourth most frequently and walked the fourth most infrequently. They've had the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. And the pitching has completely melted down; the bullpen ERA of 4.70 is the third worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the starters' 5.82 ERA is the second worst. 

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is closing out a sensational season, batting .329 with a .487 on base percentage and .482 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. He's got a .547 on base percentage in the second half of the season. The only players who've bested that over half a season are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.317/.336/.433 slash line) is also winding up a strong second half; his .759 OPS trails only the Mets' Daniel Murphy (.824) and the Pirates' Neil Walker (.762) among regular second basemen in the National League since the All-Star break. Closer Aroldis Chapman, in limited save opportunities, has a 0.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 9.2 innings, covering the last 30 days.

Who's Not? No Reds starter has an ERA lower than 4.73 over the past 30 days, including the weekend's starters, Keyvius Sampson (6.52), Brandon Finnegan (6.00), and Josh Smith (7.07). The weakest bats over the past 30 days have been those of left/center fielder Jason Bourgeois (.237/.297/.335), utility man Ivan DeJesus (.222/.246/.370) and catcher Tucker Barnhart (.179/.238/.196).

What's the Outlook? The Pirates can't completely coast. Their magic number over the Cubs for home field in Wednesday's wild card play-in game is two, meaning they need a combination of two victories over the Reds and/or Brewers victories over the Cubs over the weekend to put the game in PNC Park. But we should expect to see some position players get time off. As for the Reds, they have to hope the Phillies can extend their four-game winning streak at home against the Marlins, opening the door for Cincinnati to nab the top draft pick next summer.

Will Walker Walk?

On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Pirates beat writer Rob Biertempfel had an article about Pirates second baseman Neil Walker entitled, "Despite Hometown Ties, Walker Knows Time with Pirates Likely Nearing End." Biertempfel pointed out that:

• Walker is eligible for salary arbitration next year, and can be a free agent after next season.
• He's making $8 million this year, and could probably expect to earn $10 million next year.
• He's 30 years old and has had back problems in the past.
• Josh Harrison has played primarily second base since returning from the disabled list in August, and started the first two games of the recent Cardinals series there instead of Walker.
• Given that writing on the wall and Walker's looming free agency, "it's possible the Pirates will jump that deadline this offseason by non-tendering or trading him."

A couple comments: First, it's true that Harrison started instead of Walker on September 4 and 5 against St. Louis , but Walker had had only one day off since the All-Star break prior to the first game, and was batting just .206 with two extra-base hits (both doubles) in his last 13 games. In the second game, the starter was Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia, and Walker is hitting just .239 with a .584 OPS against lefties this year, while Harrison's numbers against southpaws are a .289 batting average and .717 OPS. As I pointed out earlier, a platoon of Walker and Harrison at second base makes a lot of sense. Walker's already played more games this year than any season since 2011, so he's not exactly getting phased out. Second, non-tendering means not offering a player a contract--in effect, releasing him. I don't see any way that the Pirates would non-tender Walker; that's what you do with filler-type guys who have no role with your club and don't have a lot of value to other clubs. Trading him, though, that's another story.

That prompted another Tribune-Review writer, Rob Rossi, to opine "What A Joke It Would Be If the Pirates Let Walker Go." His argument: Walker, a Pittsburgh native, is not only one of the best second basemen in the game, but he's also a key member of the franchise and the community, and the Pirates should do what it takes to keep him. He suggests four years, $46 million. 

I've given you the link to Rossi's article, so you can see what you think of it. (Not relevant to anything here, but Rossi wrote, "Walker might be the Pirates' best second baseman since Bill Mazeroski." Um, Johnny Ray says hello.) I want to focus on his idea of a four year, $46 million contact.

First, let's take a look at the Pirates who can become free agents in the next few seasons. I'm going to list them by year and their age at the start of their free agency seasons:

• 2016: Pitcher Anthony Bastardo (30), infielder Sean Rodriguez (30), pitcher Joakim Soria (31), pitcher J.A. Happ (33), first baseman Corey Hart (34). (I'm assuming A.J. Burnett and Aramis Ramirez stick to their guns and retire.)
• 2017: Outfielder Travis Snider (29), first baseman Pedro Alvarez (30), catcher Francisco Cervelli (31), Walker (31), pitcher Mark Melancon (32), first baseman Travis Ishikawa (33), catcher Chris Stewart (35), first baseman Mike Morse (35)
• 2018: Pitcher Tony Watson (33), pitcher Francisco Liriano (34), pitcher Charlie Morton (34).

You figure the Pirates are going to want to keep some of those guys, right? Rodriguez and Happ out of next year's class, Cervelli and maybe Melancon the following year, possibly all three of the 2018 pitchers, if they're healthy. Now, I don't care how much a player makes, nor how much a multimillionaire spends on his team. You can make an argument that a player like Andrew McCutchen is worth $30 million per year, and if he makes that, more power to him; if Pirates owner Bob Nutting spends that much, it's not my money. But the Pirates have to have some sort of budget, I figure, and that budget will limit how much they can spend on players. Paying a lot of money for a player is relevant only if it prevents a team from being able to afford other players.

So does spending $46 million for four years of Walker make sense? Without even looking at the dollars, let's look at age. Walker will be 30 at the start of next year, so the Pirates would be signing him for his age 30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons. Walker's a good-hitting second baseman--above-average park-adjusted OPS every year he's been in the majors--whose bat carries his adequate glove. How realistic is it to expect him to stay in the lineup and keep up his above-average hitting in his thirties?

To answer this, I looked at every second baseman who qualified for the batting championship since 2000. Here are the regular (defined as 75% of their games played at second) second baseman with an above-average OPS in their 30s:

• Age 30: Ronnie Belliard, Robinson Cano, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Tadahito Iguchi, Howie Kendrick, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Phillips, Brian Roberts, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist (12 total)
• Age 31: Robinson Cano, Orlando Hudson, Ian Kinsler, Mark Loretta, Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley (8 total)
• Age 32: Roberto Alomar, Bret Boone, Robinson Cano, Ray Durham, Jeff Kent, Mark Loretta, Placido Polanco, Ben Zobrist (8 total)
• Age 33: Roberto Alomar, Bret Boone, Ray Durham, Mark Grudzielanek, Jeff Kent, Ian Kinsler (6 total)

In the past 16 seasons, no regular second baseman who's been in the lineup enough to qualify for the batting title has been an above-average hitter every year between ages 30 and 33. Robinson Cano, who's 32, is three quarters of the way there, but he's the only second baseman to appear on the list three times. In other words, he is the only regular second baseman in this century to have been an above-average hitter in more than half of the four years between age 30 and 33. Chase Utley put up consistently good numbers, but he missed 47 games when he was 31, 59 when he was 32, and 79 when he was 33, so qualified for the batting title only twice. Ben Zobrist was an above-average hitter who qualified for the batting title every year but he played only 58 games at second when he was 31 and 79 games there when he was 33. The combination of staying healthy and staying good, it seems, starts and ends with one second baseman, Robinson Cano, with an honorable mention to Ben Zobrist.

So does a four-year contract for a 30 year old second baseman who's good, but obviously not quite Robinson Cano, make a lot of sense, regardless of money? No, it probably doesn't. And the conviction behind that "probably" increases if the contract sucks up so much payroll money that it prevents the team from affording younger or better players. 

Look, I like Walker. He really is one of the best second basemen in the game; I'd put him in the top ten or so. But as he ages, his defense isn't going to get better, his offense is likely to decline, and he's likely to start missing time. If the Pirates can sign him to, say, three years with a hometown discount, fine. I think Harrison makes more sense as a super-utility guy than an everyday second basemen anyway. But blowing a lot of money on a lot of years of Walker seems counter-productive, his place of birth notwithstanding.

Since The Break

Some tidbits about the Pirates since the All-Star break:

• They're 33-21, tied with the Cardinals and Rangers for the fourth-best record in all of baseball, trailing the Blue Jays (37-15), Mets (35-19), and Cubs (35-20). So yes, the four best records in the National League since the break are those of the Mets followed by the three top NL Central teams.
• Their starting pitchers have been mediocre: 4.18 ERA, ninth in the NL, and a 20-20 won-lost record. They've probably been somewhat unlucky, allowing the second-highest batting average on balls in play and the fifth-lowest strand rate (baserunners not coming around to score). Those both tend to be measures of luck more than skill. 
• The bullpen, though...3.12 ERA, third in the league, although helped by the third-highest strand rate in the league. Addressing the question of overuse, Pirates relievers have thrown the sixth most innings since the break but faced the seventh most batters and thrown the eighth most pitches--they've continued to be effective.
• The offensive has come alive. Seventh in the league in runs before the break, they're third since.

Looking at the offense, here are the team's hitters (minimum 40 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star Break.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	H1	Diff
Jung Ho Kang	50	187	33	59	14	0	11	29	0	2	10	46	.316	.373	.567	.939	.732	+.207
Andrew McCutchen	52	189	37	58	9	1	10	36	2	2	34	53	.307	.415	.524	.939	.892	+.047
Mike Morse	28	43	5	14	3	1	1	4	0	0	5	12	.326	.408	.512	.920	NA	NA
Pedro Alvarez	51	140	20	36	4	0	11	28	1	0	14	50	.257	.327	.521	.848	.733	+.115
Francisco Cervelli	45	152	20	47	6	3	2	9	0	0	22	28	.309	.401	.428	.829	.766	+.063
Gregory Polanco	52	220	31	63	14	3	5	20	7	3	16	43	.286	.335	.445	.780	.653	+.127
Starling Marte	51	186	31	53	11	2	3	19	10	2	5	29	.285	.338	.414	.752	.784	-.032
Sean Rodriguez	47	84	12	25	6	0	1	7	0	2	2	24	.298	.337	.405	.742	.589	+.153
Aramis Ramirez	41	145	13	36	10	0	5	28	0	0	10	17	.248	.297	.421	.718	NA	NA
Neil Walker	52	176	21	42	7	3	6	25	0	0	18	28	.239	.299	.415	.713	.755	-.042
Josh Harrison	21	58	9	16	2	0	0	3	1	3	5	9	.276	.354	.310	.664	.696	-.032
Travis Ishikawa	28	48	4	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	4	16	.250	.308	.354	.662	NA	NA
Chris Stewart	22	49	1	14	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	9	.286	.308	.286	.593	.702	-.109
Jordy Mercer	20	58	4	12	2	0	0	6	0	1	7	14	.207	.288	.241	.529	.615	-.086

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/14/2015.

In the table, "H1" refers to the player's OPS in the first half of the season, i.e., up to the All-Star break. "Diff" is the difference between his second and first half OPS. For Morse and Ramirez, both of whom were acquired via trade after the break, the stats shown are only those accumulated with the Pirates. The league average OPS for position players in the second half is .736, so the dividing line between above- and below-average Pirates falls between Rodriguez and Ramirez.

A few things seem apparent from the table:

• The Pirates need Jung Ho Kang in the lineup. He's lost playing time to Aramis Ramirez at third and to Jordy Mercer at shortstop. He's been pretty clearly a better hitter than both, and only Mercer carries a notably superior glove. 
• There's been talk of platooning Polanco and Harrison in right. On paper, that makes sense: Harrison has a .718 OPS against left-handed pitchers, while Polanco's is just .555. But Polanco's been a different hitter since the break. His OPS against lefties was .356 (!) before the break, .707 since. Small sample warning--that .707 is based on only 55 plate appearances--but the difference between Polanco and Harrison against southpaws has been pretty small.
• Harrison's platoon advantage makes more sense to me at second, where Neil Walker has a .770 OPS against right-handed pitchers but only .597 against lefties.
• The platoon of Alvarez and Morse at first base is quite effective at the plate, though it's cringe-worthy in the field. 

So if I'm Clint Hurdle, here's whom I'd play:

C: Cervelli, with Stewart giving him a breather

1B: Alvarez against righties, Morse against lefties, Ishikawa as late-inning defensive replacement

2B: Walker against righties, Harrison against lefties

SS: Kang, Mercer as late-inning defensive replacement with Kang moving over to third

3B: Ramirez against lefties, Harrison and Ramirez splitting time against righties as the situation dictates

LF: Marte

CF: McCutchen

RF: Polanco

But seriously. Since Mercer returned from the disabled list on August 23, the Pirates have started Mercer at short and Ramirez at third in six of their 21 games, or 29% of them. They're 10-5 in games that Kang's started and 3-3 in games that he hasn't. I'm all in favor of getting players occasional rest, but this man's basically been Andrew McCutchen at the plate in the second half of the season. Get him in the lineup.