Next Up: The Suddenly Competitive Cincinnati Reds

Not for anything good, mind you. Here are the teams with the eight worst records in the majors as of the All-Star break: 
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 29 62 .319  --
Milwaukee    38 52 .422  9.5
Miami        38 51 .427 10
Colorado     39 49 .443 11.5
Oakland      41 50 .451 12
Cincinnati   39 47 .453 12.5

San Diego    41 49 .456 12.5
Seattle      41 48 .461 13

Here's where it was at the start of September:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 52 80 .394  --
Miami        53 79 .402  1
Colorado     53 76 .411  2.5
Atlanta      54 77 .412  2.5
Cincinnati   54 76 .415  3
Milwaukee    55 75 .423  4

Oakland      58 74 .439  6
Seattle      61 71 .462  9

And today:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 62 97 .390  --
Cincinnati   63 96 .396  1
Atlanta      64 95 .403  2
Colorado     66 93 .415  4
Oakland      66 93 .415  4
Milwaukee    68 91 .428  6

Miami        69 90 .434  7
Detroit      73 85 .462 11.5

Why's this relevant? Well, the worst record earns you the No. 1 pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's valuable. First picks, historically, do considerably better than other picks, even No. 2. So the difference between being the worst and the second-worst is significant. Cincinnati's been making an impressive drive for the that top draft choice! (And what in the world have the Marlins been thinking?)


How Are They Doing Lately? When a team moves up in the ranks of the worst teams in baseball, it's not because they're doing well. The Reds have lost 12 in a row going into the season-ending weekend series at PNC Park. The 1993 Reds also lost 12 straight, and the team could tie the 1930 and 1945 Reds with 13 straight losses tonight. (The all-time franchise record of 19 straight losses, set in 1914, is out of reach.) Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati has the worst record in the league over the last 30 days, 9-19. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, .001 runs per game more than the fourth-worst Cardinals, while giving up 5.6 runs per game, easily the most in the league, over a half a run more than the next-worst Braves.

What's Going Right? I've mentioned this a number of times, but two pitching figures that can reflect luck are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners stranded. Most players and teams tend toward the league averages (.299 batting average on balls in play and 73% strand rate in the National League over the past 30 days). The Reds have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the stranded the lowest percentage of baserunners over the past 30 days, indicating they've probably been a little unlucky. 

What's Going Wrong? Over the past 30 days, the Reds are eleventh in the league in batting (.248), 13th in on base percentage (.308), and 13th in slugging (.388). They've struck out the fourth most frequently and walked the fourth most infrequently. They've had the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. And the pitching has completely melted down; the bullpen ERA of 4.70 is the third worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the starters' 5.82 ERA is the second worst. 

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is closing out a sensational season, batting .329 with a .487 on base percentage and .482 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. He's got a .547 on base percentage in the second half of the season. The only players who've bested that over half a season are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.317/.336/.433 slash line) is also winding up a strong second half; his .759 OPS trails only the Mets' Daniel Murphy (.824) and the Pirates' Neil Walker (.762) among regular second basemen in the National League since the All-Star break. Closer Aroldis Chapman, in limited save opportunities, has a 0.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 9.2 innings, covering the last 30 days.

Who's Not? No Reds starter has an ERA lower than 4.73 over the past 30 days, including the weekend's starters, Keyvius Sampson (6.52), Brandon Finnegan (6.00), and Josh Smith (7.07). The weakest bats over the past 30 days have been those of left/center fielder Jason Bourgeois (.237/.297/.335), utility man Ivan DeJesus (.222/.246/.370) and catcher Tucker Barnhart (.179/.238/.196).

What's the Outlook? The Pirates can't completely coast. Their magic number over the Cubs for home field in Wednesday's wild card play-in game is two, meaning they need a combination of two victories over the Reds and/or Brewers victories over the Cubs over the weekend to put the game in PNC Park. But we should expect to see some position players get time off. As for the Reds, they have to hope the Phillies can extend their four-game winning streak at home against the Marlins, opening the door for Cincinnati to nab the top draft pick next summer.

Next Up: The 1927 New York Yankees

OK, not really. But the 2015 Cincinnati Reds have played the Pirates as if they were the 1927 Yankees. They're 9-4 against the Pirates, outscoring them 64-45. Against the Reds this year, the Pirates:

• Were swept in Cincinnati in the season's first three games.
• Dropped two of three at home in May.
• Did it again in June. 
• Split four games in Cincinnati a little over a month ago.

As I pointed out last week, among National League Central teams, the Pirates have had the most success against the Cardinals, who have the best record in baseball. They're now 8-8 against the Redbirds. They've had the most problems with the Reds, who currently have the fourth-worst record in the majors. In fact, if you take away the Reds' games with the Pirates, Cincinnati's record would drop to 47-75, a .385 winning percentage that would be the worst to date.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 8-20 over the past 30 days, a record that would be the worst in the National League were it not for the almost unfathomably bad Atlanta Braves, who are 4-23. The Reds haven't really played as badly as their record would suggest, though. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, eighth in the league, and given up 5.0 per game, the fourth most. That's not a great record, but it's more indicative of a 12-16 team than one that's 8-20.

What's Going Right? The Reds' bullpen has a 3.23 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth best in the National League, though with the second lowest strikeout rate and sixth highest walk rate in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's compiled that spiffy ERA despite pitching 103 innings over the past 30 days, the second highest total in the National League. That's a reflection of how bad the Reds' all-rookie starting pitching has been: 6.01 ERA, second-lowest rate of ground balls induced, highest rate of fly balls going over the fence. The offense has been nothing special: twelfth in batting average and on base percentage, eleventh in slugging percentage.

Who's Hot? Reds fans haven't had a lot to cheer for, but first baseman Joey Votto's been one of them. He's having a historically great second half, and over the past 30 days, he's tied for second in the league in batting average (.356), is second in slugging percentage (.700), and leads the league in on base percentage (.536). The team's also gotten good offensive performances from second baseman Brandon Phillips (.349/.395/.500 slash line) and shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.274/.325/.519). Raisel Iglesias, Tuesday night's starter, has been one of the league's best pitchers over the past 30 days: 2.38 ERA, 44 strikeouts and just 26 hits and walks over 34 innings. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual self: five saves, 16 strikeouts over his last 9.2 innings, but setup man J.J. Hoover, despite a 3.09 ERA and five holds, has played with fire, with eight unintentional walks and three homers in 11.2 innings.

Who's Not? Right fielder Jay Bruce has been the anti-Votto: .202/.242/.399 since the All-Star break, .168/.204/.318 over the past 30 days. With center fielder Billy Hamilton disabled and former left fielder Marlon Byrd traded, the Reds have struggled to get production from their outfield. Outside of Iglesias, the Reds' other rookie starters have combined for a 7.11 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The series with the Reds gives the Pirates a chance to pick up ground on their two National League Central foes, the Cardinals and Cubs, who'll battle each other over three games at Wrigley Field. But for that to happen, the Pirates will have to figure out how to beat one of the worst teams in baseball. They haven't been able to so far this year.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

No team's given the Pirates more trouble this year than the Reds. The Reds are 44-54, in fourth place in the National League Central, but they've racked up a 7-2 record to date against the Bucs. The Pirates were 1-5 in their first six games after the All-Star break and have gone 5-1 in the six games since. They will try to push their overall post-break record above .500 over four games in Cincinnati starting tonight.

How Are They Doing Lately? They've thrown in the towel on 2015, trading their ace starter and pending free agent Johnny Cueto to Kansas City. By the time Sunday's game rolls around, the Reds' scheduled starting pitcher, Mike Leake, could be gone as well. Right fielder Jay Bruce has been discussed as a potential trade chip too. The Reds haven't played well, with ten wins over the last 30 days, tied with the Braves and Rockies for the fewest in the league, though the Braves have one more loss (15) than the Reds (14). They've scored 3.5 runs per game, tied for the sixth fewest in the league, while allowing 5.00, the second most. As such, they've been a little lucky to have gone 10-14; a team with that sort of run differential is more likely to go 8-16 or so.

What's Going Right? The offense has been...well, not particularly good, but not really bad, either. Over the last 30 days, they're eighth in batting average and slugging percentage and ninth in on base percentage in the 15-team National League. They've been the second toughest team in the league to strike out and they're sixth in home runs. While they've swung at an above-average percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, their low strikeout rate is illustrative of their ability to make contact, as they have the third-highest contact rate on swings in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers have a 4.19 ERA over the past 30 days, third worst in the league, as a way-too-high 28% of baserunners allowed have scored, also third worst. The relievers have been worse, with a cover-your-eyes 5.88 ERA, second worst in the league, and they've earned it more than the starters, with the lowest strikeout rate AND the highest walk rate in the league over the past 30 days. 

Who's Hot? First baseman Joey Votto has been on fire: .386/.514/.639 slash line over the last 30 days, .523/.644/.886 since the All-Star break. I typed all of that correctly: He's gotten on base more than half the time over the last 30 days, and he's gotten hits in over half of his at bats since the break. Bruce has been sensational, too, .303/.347/.596 over the last 30 days. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual dominating self: six saves in ten games over the last 30 days, 18 strikeouts in 10.1 innings, batters whiffing on 39% of their swings against him. (League average is 23%.) Cueto had a 1.59 ERA over five starts in the past 30 days, but he's gone. Leake' ERA over the same period is better, 1.25, but he might get traded too. In fact, the only person in this paragraph who's not been mentioned in trade rumors is Votto, and that's because he's owed $192 million over the next eight years.

Who's Not? I mentioned Cueto, Leake, and Chapman above. Over the last 30 days, the rest of the Reds' pitching staff has a combined ERA of 6.80. On offense, second baseman Brandon Phillips is hitting .223/.270/.266 over the past 30 days, catcher Brayan Pena .185/.228/.185. They have a total of four extra-base hits (all doubles by Phillips) over 148 at-bats between them. All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier's hit .215/.248/.376 over the period, though the Pirates have been his personal slump-buster this season, as he's hitting .359/.419/.846 with five homers, ten RBI, and ten runs scored in nine games against Pittsburgh this year. 

What's the Outlook? Their 2-7 record against Cincinnati so far this year notwithstanding, the Pirates are facing a diminished Reds team from the one they faced earlier in the season, and they could become more diminished by tomorrow's trade deadline. The Pirates' rejuvinated offense (38 runs in the past six games) will face rookie David Holmberg (making his 2015 debut; he had a 4.50 ERA over four starts in 2014), rookie Michael Lorenzen (8.83 ERA over his last four starts), rookie Raisel Iglesias (6.19) and, if he's still with the club, Leake over the four game series. That makes for good prospects for improving on 2-7.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

After an off day, the Pirates will try to get back on track after the weekend's shellacking on the hands of the Washington Nationals (three losses by a combined score of 19-3). They open a three game series tonight against the Reds, against whom they're only 1-5 so far this year.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 14-12 over the past 30 days, which isn't fabulous, but it ties them with the Cubs for the third-best record in the National League during the period, trailing only the 19-8 Pirates and 18-8 Cardinals. Yes, the four best teams in the National League over the past 30 days are all in the Central division. They've scored 4.5 runs per game over the past 30 games, second in the league, and allowed 3.8 per game, fourth fewest. So they've been pretty good. Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face their longtime nemesis, Johnny Cueto, whose elbow is bothering him. He was scheduled to start tonight's game but he'll rest until Friday. The Pirates will instead face Josh Smith, in his first major league start. That might sound promising, but the Pirates faced the Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann in the Brewer's first start, and lost 4-1, as the rookie allowed one run over seven innings.

What's Going Right? Well, when you're second in runs scored and fourth in runs prevented, a lot of stuff's going right. They're only ninth in batting over the past 30 days but sixth in on base percentage and second in slugging. They've hit the second most homers and drawn the fifth most walks. They have the sixth-best starters' ERA and the sixth-best relievers' ERA over the span. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's blown five saves, the second-most in the National League over the past 30 days. And the Cueto injury is worrisome. He's the team's best pitcher and most valuable trade chip--more on that in a sec--but he started only 24 games in 2011 and 11 in 2013 due to health issues. The Reds are hoping he holds up in this odd-numbered year.

The Reds also face a fish-or-cut-bait issue. They're 32-36, fourth in the Central, 12.5 games behind the Cardinals and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card, tied with the Padres, with four other teams between them and Chicago. One of their best starters, Homer Bailey, is out until sometime next season with Tommy John surgery. Do they keep pushing for the postseason this year, or do they see what they can get for Cueto in a trade? Do they try to trade closer Aroldis Chapman, who's arbitration eligible next year? These questions won't get answered in the three games with the Pirates, but they hang over the club.

Who's Hot? Third baseman Todd Frazier's been on fire: .339/.368/.761 slash line over the last 30 days, first in runs scored, second in homers, tied for second in RBI. First baseman Joey Votto's been really good too, at .308/.427/.637. Frazier's first in the league in slugging, Votto's fourth in on base percentage. Center fielder Billy Hamilton has struggled to get on base (.289 on base percentage in the past 30 days), but he's put pressure on pitchers when he gets on, leading the majors with 14 steals. Every starter--Cueto, Mike Leake, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen--has been OK, though the latter two get an unusually small number of strikeouts. In the bullpen, Chapman's out on paternity leave, so the closer role will shift to J.J. Hoover. Chapman, as usual, has struck out a ridiculous number of batters--43% of the batters he's faced over the past 30 days. compared to a league average of 22%--while Hoover, who's allowed no runs in his last 13.1 innings, has struck out a below-average 14% of batters.

Who's Not? Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.226/.258/.298 over the past 30 days) is showing his age, but the only other Reds batters with poor results of late are part-timers. He's neither hot nor cold at the major league level, but tonight's starter, Smith, is a 27-year-old rookie, and 27 is pretty old to be breaking into the majors. 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are facing a Reds team that's played well lately. The big question, to me, will be whether the Pirates pitchers can cool off the Reds' hot bats, especially Frazier's (four homers in six games against Pittsburgh). 

Bucs Clutch?

As I pointed out yesterday, the Pirates are last in the league in batting with the bases empty but fifth in batting with runners in scoring position. I wrote, "It seems as if they're always leaving runners on base--Saturday night's 18 runners left on base was pull-your-hair-out frustrating." But, as I noted further, "The problem isn't hitting with runners on base; it's getting runners on base in the first place." 

We've come to associate batting with runners in scoring position with being clutch. The most recent exemplar is the 2013 Cardinals, who set a record with their .330 batting average with runners in scoring position. (Predictably, that figure fell to .254 in 2014 and it was .264 in 2012, so that .330 was sandwiched between normal figures. Batting with runners in scoring position is generally not replicable, which means that it bounces around from year to year. That indicates there's a good measure of luck involved in this "clutch." measure.)

Now, it's not odd that the Pirates are batting better with runners in scoring position than with the bases empty. That's normal. There are several reasons for this:

• With runners on base, the pitcher's distracted.
• The pitcher has to pitch out of the stretch rather than with a full windup, with runners on base which for many pitchers decreases their effectiveness.
• Infielders can't position themselves optimally, since they may have to hold baserunners on base, creating more holes in the infield for batted balls to find.
• There is what statisticians call "selection bias." The best pitchers don't allow runners on base, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with the bases empty. Bad pitchers allow lots of baserunners, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Last season, Clayton Kershaw had the best ERA in the National League, and Roberto Hernandez had the worst. They faced roughly the same number of batters. For Hernandez, 55% of opponents' plate appearances were with the bases empty and 28% with runners in scoring position. For Kershaw, those figures are 65% and 17%, respectively.  Batters have poorer numbers with the bases empty because, in aggregate, those plate appearances are against better pitchers than plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

So how unusual are the Pirates' figures? Here's a table that illustrates how they're doing. I've listed, for each of the past five seasons, the team with the greatest difference (measured by OPS) between batting with runners in scoring position (RISP) and with the bases empty:

I think there are two interesting things here.

1. The Pirates' divergence between batting with runners in scoring position and with the bases empty is the greatest since those record-setting 2013 Cardinals that I mentioned above. What we're seeing so far this year is really unusual.
2. The 2014 Dodgers won their division and had the second-best record in the league. The 2013 Cardinals won their division and had the best record in the league. The 2011 Phillies won their division and had the best record in the league. The only two teams on the list that aren't division leaders are the 2012 Phillies (81-81, third in the National League East) and this year's Pirates.

This isn't to say that the Pirates' batting with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty indicates that they'll win their division. Teams with a .250 on base percentage with the bases empty will struggle to score runs. Rather, it seems reasonable to assume that the wide divergence--nearly 100 points in on base percentage--isn't likely to persist. The Bucs will probably do better with the bases empty and may do worse with runners in scoring position going forward. The net effect would be positive. The lack of clutch hitting this year isn't with runners on, it's with nobody on.

Next Up: Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates started their season on April 6 with a three-game series in Cincinnati. Now, a month later, they host the Reds for another three-game series. Here's a look at the Reds over the past month.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 12-13, tied for third in the National League Central with the Pirates. They trail the Cubs by 1.5 games and the red-hot Cardinals by 7.

What's Gong Right? The Reds starters have been good: 3.48 ERA, fifth in the league. They've hit a lot of home runs (34, second in the league) but are tied for only ninth in scoring because of a league-worst .226 team batting average. Their base stealing numbers are ridiculous: 29 stolen bases, most in the league, and just one caught stealing.

What's Going Wrong? The Reds relievers have been awful: 5.34 ERA, last in the league by nearly half a run. And, as noted above, they're batting just .226.

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is batting .323 (13th in the league) with a .427 on base percentage (seventh) and .613 slugging percentage (sixth). He is clearly the team leader with the bat. That's not a big surprise; he's the team's biggest star and is bouncing back from an injury-riddled 2014. Shortstop Zack Cozart (who's questionable due to a bruised finger) is hitting .304/.343/.533 with five homers. Now that's a big surprise; Cozart batted .221/.268/.300 last year with four homers all season. Todd Frazier, with eight homers, and Jay Bruce, with five, have also supplied power, though with batting averages of only .215 and .181, respectively. Frazier's tied for first in the league in homers, Votto's tied for third, Cozart and Bruce are tied for tenth.

The Pirates won't have to face their nemesis Johnny Cueto during the series but they will go up against the Reds' other two top starters, Mike Leake (1-1, 3.03 ERA) and the surprising Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 2.03 ERA). Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his normal ridiculous self (five saves, one win in 11 games; 10.2 innings pitched, 19 strikeouts, five hits and no runs allowed) and setup man Tony Cingrani (2.08 ERA in seven games) has been good. The rest of the bullpen's been awful (7.25 ERA). 

Who's Not? I already mentioned Frazier's and Bruce's batting averages. At least they're walking a bit and hitting some homers. That's not true of left fielder Marlon Byrd (.181) and center fielder Billy Hamilton (.204). Hamilton, as usual, contributes strong defense and a lot of speed (13 stolen bases, tops in the league), though his .260 on base percentage (12th lowest in the league) means he's not getting on base enough to steal more bases or score more runs. Catcher Devin Mescoraco will probably see limited or no action against the Pirates due to a sore hip. He's off to a terrible start: two singles in 24 at bats (.083 batting average).

What's the Outlook? The recipe for beating the Reds is pretty simple: Keep Hamilton off the basepaths so he can't go crazy stealing, limit the baserunners in general to lessen the damage from all those home runs, and try to get to the bullpen before Cingrani and, especially, Chapman have a chance to preserve a lead.

Odds and Ends - April 26

• On April 14, I noted that left fielder Starling Marte had struck out in 47% of his plate appearances, the highest percentage in the National League. In the ten games since, his strikeout rate is just 18%. (The NL average for position players so far this year is 19.4%.) He's also batting .323 with a .742 slugging percentage since April 14. His problem was that he was swinging on a lot of pitches outside the strike zone (45% of pitches thrown to him outside the strike zone) and missing a lot of them (61%). He's cut down on his swings outside the strike zone (his total for the year's below 41%) and, as a result, making contact more frequently (whiffing on 52% of out-of-zone pitches year to date). Looks like he started the year over-aggressive but has things together now.
• The Pirates' offense remains a sore spot. They're batting .223 (11th in the league) with a .275 on base percentage (13th) and .364 slugging percentage (10th). Their OPS of .639 is 13th in the National League, 12th when adjusted for PNC Park. The only positions at which they're getting above-average offensive performance (measured by park-adjusted OPS) are catcher and second base. Center fielder Andrew McCutchen's got a .175/.294/.316 slash line--this is the worst 17-game streak of his career, I'm pretty sure [UPDATE 4/27: Nope, not at all. Watch you search terms! But pretty bad]; are we sure he's not hurt?--and last year's other top performer, third baseman Josh Harrison, is slashing .221/.264/.382. The team's been kept afloat by its starting pitchers, who have a 2.87 ERA (second best in the league), 1.16 walks and hits per inning pitched (third), and a 23.5% strikeout rate (second), 
• No, Mark Melancon's velocity hasn't returned yet. But he's pitched in each of the last three games, collecting saves in each. His average cut fastball velocity: 89.8 mph Thursday, 88.7 mph Friday, 88.2 mph Saturday. (All figures from Brooks Baseball.) Recall that he's never averaged below 90 mph, even for a month, over his career. His recent success suggests that he's substituting guile for speed, but I don't know whether that'll last. If he struggles, the Pirates have plenty of depth, with lefty Tony Watson (3.00 ERA and zero walks in 11 appearances), righty Jared Hughes (2.89 ERA, 11/2 strikeout/walk ratio), or flamethowing Arquiimedes Caminero (98.8 mph average fastball velocity, second in the league to Reds closer Aroldis Chapman) probably 1-2-3 in the closer depth chart behind Melancon.
• The Pirates' next series is against the Cubs. I'll hit that up tomorrow. The Cubs are the only National League team the Bucs have played this year with a winning record; they went 1-2 against the 12-6 Detroit Tigers in interleague play.

Flyover: Cincinnati Reds

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs last year as a wild card (eliminated in the coin flip game by the Pirates) and were picked by some to win the division this year. No such luck. With star first baseman Joey Votto injured most of the year, second baseman Brandon Phillips having his worst season as a Red and looking old at 33, and right fielder Jay Bruce having the worst year of his career, the Reds are scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the National League, betraying a pitching staff that has a better-than-average 3.57 ERA. The only above-average hitters have been third baseman Todd Frazier and catcher Devin Mesoraco. Rookie center fielder/speedster Billy Hamilton has been OK with the bat and better than expected in the field, but he has somehow manged to steal only 72% of the bases he's attempted to swipe, exactly equal to the league average. Fastest player in baseball, maybe ever, and he's only an average base stealer. At least the team's other speedster, flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman, has been ridiculous: 87 strikeouts in 44.1 innings, striking out 52% of the batter's he's faced (nobody's close), only pitcher with an average fastball velocity in excess of 100 mph. The Reds have fourth place in the NL Central pretty much locked in.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds have the worst record in the National League, 9-18, over the last 30 days. The pitching's been bad, especially the bullpen, and the offense has been terrible. Well, it's not like they're playing for the postseason.

What's Going Right? Um. Well. They lead the league in stolen bases over the past 30 days. The pitchers are second in strikeouts. I'm behind writing these or I'd dig up something else. Nothing jumps out. The team has been pretty bad lately. Say this about the offense: the Reds are batting .259 on balls in play over the past 30 days. That's last in the league, by far, way below the league average of .301, suggesting that there's a large dollup of bad luck in their hitting numbers. Batting averages on balls in play don't generally don't persist at the extremes.

What's Going Wrong? This is a much longer list. They're last in batting average (.220), last in on base percentage (.280), second to last in slugging (.332) over the past 30 days. The pitchers are third in walk rate overall, and the relievers have walked 12% of the batters they've faced, by far the most in the league. Remember the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. About 48% of Reds relievers' pitchers are in the strike zone (throwing strikes), league average, but they're inducing swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (getting strikes), last in the league. 

Who's Hot? Over the past 30 days, the average National League hitter--this is the league where pitchers hit, remember--is batting .252 with a .314 on base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. There isn't a single Reds batter who's exceeded those figures. Mesoraco's led the team with a .348 on base percentage and a .432 slugging percentage, but as you can see, that's nothing all that special.

All-Star starter Johnny Cueto's been pretty good over the past 30 days, 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA, and starter Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with a 2-1 record. Other than strikeouts (18 in 9 innings), Chapman's had a just OK record (4.00 ERA). He and setup man Jumbo Diaz are the only relievers with nine or more innings pitched over the past month. 

Who's Not? Phillips has had a terrible time at the plate over the past 30 days, batting just .138 with a .194 on base percentage and a .172 slugging percentage. Bruce's slash line is .202/.242/.340 and he's struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Left fielder Ryan Ludwick's slash line is .179/.238/.321. 

What's the Outlook? This is the shortest if these team reports I've written. It's partly because there aren't very many Reds who have been exceptionally good or bad. But mostly, it's because this is an unexciting team. They're clearly playing out the string.

The Other Really Fast Cincinnati Red

No, not Billy Hamilton, though he's certainly fast. I'm talking about pitching fast, specifically Aroldis Chapman, possessor of the fastest fastball in the majors. So far this year, in 18.1 innings he's allowed just 11 base runners (6 hits, 5 walks), compiling a 0.98 ERA while converting 12 of 13 save opportunities. Most ridiculously,  he's struck out 37 batters, or 56.9% of the batters he's faced.

Here's a list of pitchers who've struck out 40% or more of the batters they've faced in a season of 50 or more innings pitched. As you can see, it's happened only eleven times. And while I couldn't get the sort to work quite right (the percentage of batters struck out is K%), you can see that Chapman's strikeout rate is unprecedented. 

Player	K%	SO	IP	Year	Tm	G	GF	W	L	SV	H	ER	BB	ERA
Craig Kimbrel	50.2%	116	62.2	2012	ATL	63	56	3	1	42	27	7	14	1.01
Kenley Jansen	44.0%	96	53.2	2011	LAD	51	13	2	1	5	30	17	26	2.85
Carlos Marmol	41.6%	138	77.2	2010	CHC	77	70	2	3	38	40	22	52	2.55
Aroldis Chapman	43.4%	112	63.2	2013	CIN	68	55	4	5	38	37	18	29	2.54
Aroldis Chapman	44.2%	122	71.2	2012	CIN	68	52	5	5	38	35	12	23	1.51
Eric Gagne	44.8%	137	82.1	2003	LAD	77	67	2	3	55	37	11	20	1.20
Billy Wagner	43.4%	124	74.2	1999	HOU	66	55	4	1	39	35	13	23	1.57
Brad Lidge	42.5%	157	94.2	2004	HOU	80	44	6	5	29	57	20	30	1.90
Craig Kimbrel	41.5%	127	77.0	2011	ATL	79	64	4	3	46	48	18	32	2.10
Armando Benitez	41.0%	128	78.0	1999	NYM	77	42	4	3	22	40	16	41	1.85
Greg Holland	40.4%	103	67.0	2013	KCR	68	61	2	1	47	40	9	18	1.21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 6/20/2014.

Chapman's season started late because he was hit in the face by a line drive at the end of March,  necessitating surgery to repair bones around his left eye and nose. There were questions about how he'd recover psychologically. I'd say he's OK.

2014 Predictions: NL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL West is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  86-76.

Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.

Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.

Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.

Throwin' Heat

More from The Bill James Handbook 2014. In case you were wondering, no, I'm not a paid advertiser for the book. But I sure like it.

What pitcher do you think threw the most pitches over 100 miles per hour? As with the item about baserunning outs, this isn't a trick question. The answer is Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban Missile, who threw 282 such fastballs among the 1,099 pitches he threw. Chapman's well known for his fastball. I mean, the guy has a tattoo on his left wrist with that says "105.1 MPH."

But you know who's second? Bruce Rondon.

I'm guessing a lot of you don't know who Bruce Rondon is. He entered spring training as the Tigers' closer but split his time between the Tigers' AAA affiliate in Toledo and Detroit. He appeared in 30 games in each city. 

Anyway, Rondon threw 144 pitches out of 442 that were clocked at over 100 MPH. That's nearly a third of his pitches, compared to a little over a quarter for Chapman. So why did one pitcher close for a playoff team and the other one bounce between AAA and the majors?

It turns out that even if you can throw hard, some pitches are better than others. Chapman was better at getting his first pitch over; he started off batters 0-1 57% of the time, Rondon 41%. Chapman had 6 wild pitches in 63.2 innings, Rondon had 7 in 28.2 innings. Chapman got swinging strikes--complete whiffs, not foul balls--on 16% of fastballs, Rondon on 11%.

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs had a great article on the topic of these two. His conclusion is that Chapman gets more strikeouts than Rondon, and is thus more effective, because hitters make more contact against Rondon's fastball than Chapman's, and that's because Chapman pitches higher up in the strike zone, where fastballs tend to get missed or hit in the air, while low fastballs generate more contact and ground balls.

Overall, Rondon had a 3.45 ERA. Chapman's was 2.54. There's an argument that Rondon's failure to nail down the closer's role had as much to do with management's unease at giving the job to a 22 year old as anything else. But for all his heat, his inability to induce swings and misses as well as Chapman kept him from being, well, another Chapman.