Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

After an off day, the Pirates will try to get back on track after the weekend's shellacking on the hands of the Washington Nationals (three losses by a combined score of 19-3). They open a three game series tonight against the Reds, against whom they're only 1-5 so far this year.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 14-12 over the past 30 days, which isn't fabulous, but it ties them with the Cubs for the third-best record in the National League during the period, trailing only the 19-8 Pirates and 18-8 Cardinals. Yes, the four best teams in the National League over the past 30 days are all in the Central division. They've scored 4.5 runs per game over the past 30 games, second in the league, and allowed 3.8 per game, fourth fewest. So they've been pretty good. Fortunately for the Pirates, they won't face their longtime nemesis, Johnny Cueto, whose elbow is bothering him. He was scheduled to start tonight's game but he'll rest until Friday. The Pirates will instead face Josh Smith, in his first major league start. That might sound promising, but the Pirates faced the Milwaukee's Taylor Jungmann in the Brewer's first start, and lost 4-1, as the rookie allowed one run over seven innings.

What's Going Right? Well, when you're second in runs scored and fourth in runs prevented, a lot of stuff's going right. They're only ninth in batting over the past 30 days but sixth in on base percentage and second in slugging. They've hit the second most homers and drawn the fifth most walks. They have the sixth-best starters' ERA and the sixth-best relievers' ERA over the span. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's blown five saves, the second-most in the National League over the past 30 days. And the Cueto injury is worrisome. He's the team's best pitcher and most valuable trade chip--more on that in a sec--but he started only 24 games in 2011 and 11 in 2013 due to health issues. The Reds are hoping he holds up in this odd-numbered year.

The Reds also face a fish-or-cut-bait issue. They're 32-36, fourth in the Central, 12.5 games behind the Cardinals and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card, tied with the Padres, with four other teams between them and Chicago. One of their best starters, Homer Bailey, is out until sometime next season with Tommy John surgery. Do they keep pushing for the postseason this year, or do they see what they can get for Cueto in a trade? Do they try to trade closer Aroldis Chapman, who's arbitration eligible next year? These questions won't get answered in the three games with the Pirates, but they hang over the club.

Who's Hot? Third baseman Todd Frazier's been on fire: .339/.368/.761 slash line over the last 30 days, first in runs scored, second in homers, tied for second in RBI. First baseman Joey Votto's been really good too, at .308/.427/.637. Frazier's first in the league in slugging, Votto's fourth in on base percentage. Center fielder Billy Hamilton has struggled to get on base (.289 on base percentage in the past 30 days), but he's put pressure on pitchers when he gets on, leading the majors with 14 steals. Every starter--Cueto, Mike Leake, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen--has been OK, though the latter two get an unusually small number of strikeouts. In the bullpen, Chapman's out on paternity leave, so the closer role will shift to J.J. Hoover. Chapman, as usual, has struck out a ridiculous number of batters--43% of the batters he's faced over the past 30 days. compared to a league average of 22%--while Hoover, who's allowed no runs in his last 13.1 innings, has struck out a below-average 14% of batters.

Who's Not? Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.226/.258/.298 over the past 30 days) is showing his age, but the only other Reds batters with poor results of late are part-timers. He's neither hot nor cold at the major league level, but tonight's starter, Smith, is a 27-year-old rookie, and 27 is pretty old to be breaking into the majors. 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are facing a Reds team that's played well lately. The big question, to me, will be whether the Pirates pitchers can cool off the Reds' hot bats, especially Frazier's (four homers in six games against Pittsburgh). 

Bucs Clutch?

As I pointed out yesterday, the Pirates are last in the league in batting with the bases empty but fifth in batting with runners in scoring position. I wrote, "It seems as if they're always leaving runners on base--Saturday night's 18 runners left on base was pull-your-hair-out frustrating." But, as I noted further, "The problem isn't hitting with runners on base; it's getting runners on base in the first place." 

We've come to associate batting with runners in scoring position with being clutch. The most recent exemplar is the 2013 Cardinals, who set a record with their .330 batting average with runners in scoring position. (Predictably, that figure fell to .254 in 2014 and it was .264 in 2012, so that .330 was sandwiched between normal figures. Batting with runners in scoring position is generally not replicable, which means that it bounces around from year to year. That indicates there's a good measure of luck involved in this "clutch." measure.)

Now, it's not odd that the Pirates are batting better with runners in scoring position than with the bases empty. That's normal. There are several reasons for this:

• With runners on base, the pitcher's distracted.
• The pitcher has to pitch out of the stretch rather than with a full windup, with runners on base which for many pitchers decreases their effectiveness.
• Infielders can't position themselves optimally, since they may have to hold baserunners on base, creating more holes in the infield for batted balls to find.
• There is what statisticians call "selection bias." The best pitchers don't allow runners on base, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with the bases empty. Bad pitchers allow lots of baserunners, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Last season, Clayton Kershaw had the best ERA in the National League, and Roberto Hernandez had the worst. They faced roughly the same number of batters. For Hernandez, 55% of opponents' plate appearances were with the bases empty and 28% with runners in scoring position. For Kershaw, those figures are 65% and 17%, respectively.  Batters have poorer numbers with the bases empty because, in aggregate, those plate appearances are against better pitchers than plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

So how unusual are the Pirates' figures? Here's a table that illustrates how they're doing. I've listed, for each of the past five seasons, the team with the greatest difference (measured by OPS) between batting with runners in scoring position (RISP) and with the bases empty:

I think there are two interesting things here.

1. The Pirates' divergence between batting with runners in scoring position and with the bases empty is the greatest since those record-setting 2013 Cardinals that I mentioned above. What we're seeing so far this year is really unusual.
2. The 2014 Dodgers won their division and had the second-best record in the league. The 2013 Cardinals won their division and had the best record in the league. The 2011 Phillies won their division and had the best record in the league. The only two teams on the list that aren't division leaders are the 2012 Phillies (81-81, third in the National League East) and this year's Pirates.

This isn't to say that the Pirates' batting with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty indicates that they'll win their division. Teams with a .250 on base percentage with the bases empty will struggle to score runs. Rather, it seems reasonable to assume that the wide divergence--nearly 100 points in on base percentage--isn't likely to persist. The Bucs will probably do better with the bases empty and may do worse with runners in scoring position going forward. The net effect would be positive. The lack of clutch hitting this year isn't with runners on, it's with nobody on.

Next Up: Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates started their season on April 6 with a three-game series in Cincinnati. Now, a month later, they host the Reds for another three-game series. Here's a look at the Reds over the past month.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 12-13, tied for third in the National League Central with the Pirates. They trail the Cubs by 1.5 games and the red-hot Cardinals by 7.

What's Gong Right? The Reds starters have been good: 3.48 ERA, fifth in the league. They've hit a lot of home runs (34, second in the league) but are tied for only ninth in scoring because of a league-worst .226 team batting average. Their base stealing numbers are ridiculous: 29 stolen bases, most in the league, and just one caught stealing.

What's Going Wrong? The Reds relievers have been awful: 5.34 ERA, last in the league by nearly half a run. And, as noted above, they're batting just .226.

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is batting .323 (13th in the league) with a .427 on base percentage (seventh) and .613 slugging percentage (sixth). He is clearly the team leader with the bat. That's not a big surprise; he's the team's biggest star and is bouncing back from an injury-riddled 2014. Shortstop Zack Cozart (who's questionable due to a bruised finger) is hitting .304/.343/.533 with five homers. Now that's a big surprise; Cozart batted .221/.268/.300 last year with four homers all season. Todd Frazier, with eight homers, and Jay Bruce, with five, have also supplied power, though with batting averages of only .215 and .181, respectively. Frazier's tied for first in the league in homers, Votto's tied for third, Cozart and Bruce are tied for tenth.

The Pirates won't have to face their nemesis Johnny Cueto during the series but they will go up against the Reds' other two top starters, Mike Leake (1-1, 3.03 ERA) and the surprising Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 2.03 ERA). Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his normal ridiculous self (five saves, one win in 11 games; 10.2 innings pitched, 19 strikeouts, five hits and no runs allowed) and setup man Tony Cingrani (2.08 ERA in seven games) has been good. The rest of the bullpen's been awful (7.25 ERA). 

Who's Not? I already mentioned Frazier's and Bruce's batting averages. At least they're walking a bit and hitting some homers. That's not true of left fielder Marlon Byrd (.181) and center fielder Billy Hamilton (.204). Hamilton, as usual, contributes strong defense and a lot of speed (13 stolen bases, tops in the league), though his .260 on base percentage (12th lowest in the league) means he's not getting on base enough to steal more bases or score more runs. Catcher Devin Mescoraco will probably see limited or no action against the Pirates due to a sore hip. He's off to a terrible start: two singles in 24 at bats (.083 batting average).

What's the Outlook? The recipe for beating the Reds is pretty simple: Keep Hamilton off the basepaths so he can't go crazy stealing, limit the baserunners in general to lessen the damage from all those home runs, and try to get to the bullpen before Cingrani and, especially, Chapman have a chance to preserve a lead.

Time for Awards

Yeah, I know, they won't be announced until after the Series. But the voters have to submit their ballots before postseason play. More significantly, the deadline for Baseball Prospectus's Internet Voting Awards is next Friday, and I voted (my ballot is here), so here we go.

Annual disclaimer: Note that this blog is called On The Field of Play. Awards aren't on the field of play. So this is going to be short. I'm going to list who I think should get each award and who I think will receive it. Then let's move on, OK? It's the postseason.

Disclaimer: I don't feel a team's won-lost record is relevant. I don't think awards should be limited to players whose teams play in the postseason. I also don't buy that pitchers shouldn't be eligible for the MVP award. That's my opinion. You might not agree. Many voters don't. That's cool. Just want you to know where I'm coming from.

AL MVP
Who should get it: Last year, I agonized over this one. This year, it's one of three absurdly easy awards to call. The Angels' Mike Trout led the league in runs, RBI, and total bases; was third in slugging percentage, home runs, and OPS; and played a key defensive position (center field), and played it well.

Who will get it: The only question is whether it'll be unanimous.

NL MVP
Who should get it: There are several players who, in my view, had good years. I'll list them by OPS:

Player	OPS	Tm	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
Andrew McCutchen	.952	PIT	548	89	172	38	6	25	83	84	8	115	9	18	3	.314	.410	.542
Giancarlo Stanton	.950	MIA	539	89	155	31	1	37	105	94	24	170	16	13	1	.288	.395	.555
Anthony Rizzo	.913	CHC	524	89	150	28	1	32	78	73	7	116	8	5	4	.286	.386	.527
Yasiel Puig	.863	LAD	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	67	3	124	7	11	7	.296	.382	.480
Buster Posey	.854	SFG	547	72	170	28	2	22	89	47	5	69	16	0	1	.311	.364	.490
Jayson Werth	.849	WSN	534	85	156	37	1	16	82	83	3	113	9	9	1	.292	.394	.455
Jonathan Lucroy	.837	MIL	585	73	176	53	2	13	69	66	3	71	13	4	4	.301	.373	.465
Carlos Gomez	.833	MIL	574	95	163	34	4	23	73	47	0	141	10	34	12	.284	.356	.477
Anthony Rendon	.824	WSN	613	111	176	39	6	21	83	58	2	104	11	17	3	.287	.351	.473

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2014.

However, the question isn't which hitter had the best year; it's whether the award will go to a hitter or a pitcher. Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw went 21-3, led the league in ERA for the fourth straight year--his 1.77 ERA was less than half the league average of 3.66--and he was first in WHIP (0.86), strikeouts/walks (7.7), and complete games (6) and third in strikeouts (first in strikeouts per nine innings) despite starting only 27 games due to an early-season stint on the disabled list. I voted for Pittsburgh's McCutchen (followed by Miami's Stanton) because of that DL stay; I weighted McCutchen's 648 plate appearances (tied for 16th) over Kershaw's 749 batters faced (37th). But I'd be fine with Kershaw winning...

Who will get it: ...which is a good thing, because he will.

AL Cy Young
Who should get it: I thought Cleveland's Corey Kluber and Seattle's Felix Hernandez stood out this year. Let's break them down:

Player	G	GS	CG	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Corey Kluber	34	34	3	18	9	.667	0	235.2	207	72	64	51	269	2.44	14	.233	.279	.345
Felix Hernandez	34	34	0	15	6	.714	0	236.0	170	68	56	46	248	2.14	16	.200	.243	.303

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2014.

Kluber generated his record despite playing with a weak defense behind him. Hernandez pitches in a pitcher-friendly ballpark but got limited run support (3.5 runs per 27 outs when he was in the game, 12th lowest in the league). Both pitched for teams that made a run for, and fell short of, the post-season. I was all set to vote for Hernandez given that he played in the same division as two of the best teams in baseball (Angels and A's) while Kluber pitched in the weak American League Central, but Behind the Box Score calculated that Kluber's opponent-adjusted run prevention was superior. So I voted for him.

Who will get it: With no obvious choice among the three division winners, I suspect King Felix will win his second award of the decade.

NL Cy Young
Who should get it: Kershaw, obviously. Adam Wainwright of St. Louis and Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati had good years, but there is not a race.

Who will get it: As I said, there are three absurdly easy races to call this year. Trout for AL MVP is the first. This is the second.

AL Rookie of the Year
Who should get it: And this is the third. Chicago slugger Jose Abreu was fifth in batting average and on base percentage, first in slugging, third in homers, and second in OPS. Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka was an early favorite but was sidelined from early July to late September with elbow woes, limiting him to 20 starts.

Who will get it: Abreu. It won't be close.

NL Rookie of the Year
Who should get it: The favorite much of the season was Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton, who had a surprisingly good glove in center field settled into the Reds' leadoff position, stealing 56 bases. I give him two major demerits, though. First, his .292 on base percentage really doesn't cut it for a leadoff hitter. The league average was .326, and the Reds were second to last in leadoff hitter on base percentage. That's why Hamilton, despite his blazing speed and starting 136 games in the leadoff position, was tied for only 34th in runs scored. Second, Hamilton somehow managed to get caught stealing on  29% of his steal attempts, worse than the league average of 28%. So my pick is Mets starter Jacob deGrom, who compiled a 9-6 record with a 2.69 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning after being called up in mid-May.

Who will get it: It'll be close between Hamilton and deGrom. I think the voters will probably be swayed by Hamilton's raw steals and strong defense without considering his poor on-base skills and pedestrian stolen base success percentage.

AL Manager of the Year
Who should get it: I voted for Baltimore's Buck Showalter, New York's Joe Girardi, and Cleveland's Terry Francona, in that order. Showalter guided a team picked by many to finish last in its division to the second-best record in the league. Girardi had to deal with injuries to his entire starting rotation, two free agent busts (Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran), and (ahem) the worst OPS in the league from the shortstop position, and still got 84 wins. Francona led a team expected to decline after a postseason appearance last year to 85 wins and postseason contention well into September. 

Who will get it: I imagine Showalter will walk away with it. Angels manager Mike Sciocia will probably get votes too.

NL Manager of the Year
Who should get it: My pick's Pittsburgh's Clint Hurdle who, like Francona, guided a team to a surprising playoff bid in 2013 but was expected to decline in 2014. Instead, the Pirates made it to October again (barely, getting bounced in the wild card game). I suspect San Francisco's Bruce Bochy will get support too, as will Washington's rookie skipper Matt Williams. Again, these votes take place before the postseason, so the voters didn't have the benefit of seeing Bochy kind of manage circles around Williams in their Divisional Series.

Who will get it: I imagine this will be horse race between Bochy, who was dealt a tough injury hand this year, and Williams. I hope for the sake of the Baseball Writers Association of America electorate that it's Bochy.

Sweet Play of the Day: July 23

You may have seen this play from a couple week ago, when Cincinnati Reds speedster Billy Hamilton somehow evaded a tag in a game against the Pirates:

Last night, Braves outfielder Jason Heyward pulled off a similar move against the Marlins. The thing is, Hamilton's listed at 6'0", 160, and widely acknowledged to be the fastest player in baseball. Heyward's a fabulous athlete, but he's also 6'5", 245, so there's a lot more of him to contort along the baseline.



(Note that the Marlins third baseman is Casey McGehee. Note, too, that when I discussed what a nice year he's having, I didn't talk about defense.)

The Other Really Fast Cincinnati Red

No, not Billy Hamilton, though he's certainly fast. I'm talking about pitching fast, specifically Aroldis Chapman, possessor of the fastest fastball in the majors. So far this year, in 18.1 innings he's allowed just 11 base runners (6 hits, 5 walks), compiling a 0.98 ERA while converting 12 of 13 save opportunities. Most ridiculously,  he's struck out 37 batters, or 56.9% of the batters he's faced.

Here's a list of pitchers who've struck out 40% or more of the batters they've faced in a season of 50 or more innings pitched. As you can see, it's happened only eleven times. And while I couldn't get the sort to work quite right (the percentage of batters struck out is K%), you can see that Chapman's strikeout rate is unprecedented. 

Player	K%	SO	IP	Year	Tm	G	GF	W	L	SV	H	ER	BB	ERA
Craig Kimbrel	50.2%	116	62.2	2012	ATL	63	56	3	1	42	27	7	14	1.01
Kenley Jansen	44.0%	96	53.2	2011	LAD	51	13	2	1	5	30	17	26	2.85
Carlos Marmol	41.6%	138	77.2	2010	CHC	77	70	2	3	38	40	22	52	2.55
Aroldis Chapman	43.4%	112	63.2	2013	CIN	68	55	4	5	38	37	18	29	2.54
Aroldis Chapman	44.2%	122	71.2	2012	CIN	68	52	5	5	38	35	12	23	1.51
Eric Gagne	44.8%	137	82.1	2003	LAD	77	67	2	3	55	37	11	20	1.20
Billy Wagner	43.4%	124	74.2	1999	HOU	66	55	4	1	39	35	13	23	1.57
Brad Lidge	42.5%	157	94.2	2004	HOU	80	44	6	5	29	57	20	30	1.90
Craig Kimbrel	41.5%	127	77.0	2011	ATL	79	64	4	3	46	48	18	32	2.10
Armando Benitez	41.0%	128	78.0	1999	NYM	77	42	4	3	22	40	16	41	1.85
Greg Holland	40.4%	103	67.0	2013	KCR	68	61	2	1	47	40	9	18	1.21

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Generated 6/20/2014.

Chapman's season started late because he was hit in the face by a line drive at the end of March,  necessitating surgery to repair bones around his left eye and nose. There were questions about how he'd recover psychologically. I'd say he's OK.