Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Championship Series Edition

I batted .500 in the wild cards round, getting the Cubs over the Pirates but not the Astros over the Cubs. I did better in the Divisional Series round, correctly picking Toronto over Texas, Kansas City over Houston, and Chicago over St. Louis, missing New York over Los Angeles. (For those of you who listened to my Banished to the Pen podcast appearance, my pick of Toronto over Los Angeles in the World Series is already kaput.) 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - TORONTO VS. KANSAS CITY

The American League Division Series offered the possibility of interesting Championship Series matchups: Power vs. power Toronto/Houston. All-Lone Star State Texas/Houston. Instead, we've got what was probably the most likely outcome: The two teams with the best record in the American League. Both American League Division Series went the full five games, so the teams have equally depleted pitching staffs. Toronto will start Marco Estrada tonight, David Price tomorrow afternoon, and Marcus Stroman Monday night against the Royals' Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Johnny Cueto, respectively.

This series, like Kansas City's against Houston, features some contrasts in hitting, though fewer than in the Division Series. The Blue Jays led the league in home runs; the Royals were second to last. Toronto drew the most walks, Kansas City the fewest. But the Blue Jays don't pair strikeouts with power: They had the fourth lowest strikeout rate, though Kansas City had the lowest by far. As a result, while the Royals get kudos for making contact when they swing, their contact rate, second in the league, isn't dramatically higher than that of the Jays (seventh), and the Jays are less free-swinging, chasing the second lowest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone as the Royals chased the second highest

Both teams made big pitching acquisitions at the trade deadline, with the Royals adding Cueto and the Blue Jays getting Price. Since the All-Star break, Blue Jays pitchers allowed the lowest rate of hard contact on batted balls, the third highest rate of soft contact, and the lowest rate of home runs on fly balls. The Royals were seventh on all three measures. Over the full season, the Royals had the better bullpen, but the two teams' relievers were very close in the season's second half, with a 3.33 ERA for Kansas City and a 3.35 ERA for Toronto. Toronto's relievers struck out fewer batters but walked a lot fewer. 

Toronto got here by playing one of the most memorable playoff games ever in the deciding Game Five. Kansas City's Game Five win was much less exciting. But it's not a carryover of momentum or emotion or heart that's going to decide the series. It's talent, and from what I can see, the Blue Jays have more at the plate and in their starting rotation, with the Royals having better fielders and a better bullpen. I'll take the Blue Jays' plusses over the Royals'. Toronto in six.


NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - CHICAGO VS. NEW YORK

There could be as many four dates on which there will be both ALCS and NLCS games: Saturday the 17th and Tuesday the 20th for sure, Wednesday the 21st and Saturday the 24th depending on how far the series go. Gee, which of the two games on those dates do you think will get the prime time slot: Kansas City (No. 31 media market in US) vs. Toronto (No. 1 in Canada, a nation with a population less than that of California), or Chicago (No. 3 in US) vs. New York (No. 1)? [UPDATE: I wrote that before MLB announced the official start times. I was 75% right. The Cubs-Mets game is prime time on October 17, October 20, and, if the ALCS goes to five games, October 21. It'll be the afternoon game on October 24, but only if the ALCS goes to seven games.]

These two teams are surprisingly similar. You think of the Cubs, and you think of young hitters, and you'd be right: per Baseball Reference, Cubs hitters are the second youngest in the league. You think of the Mets, and you think of young pitchers, and you'd be kind of right: Baseball Reference lists the Mets as the seventh youngest, but that's thrown off by the presence of 42-year-old Bartolo Colon; remove him and they're second or third youngest. But here are the similarities:

• On offense, both teams are extreme fly ball hitters. The Cubs and Mets were 1-2 in the 15-team National League in percentage of batted balls that were fly balls, and 14-15 in the percentage of batted balls that were grounders.
• When they hit the ball in the air, they left the park more than average: the Cubs were fourth in homers/fly balls, the Mets fifth.
• They both refused to chase pitches outside the strike zone. The Mets swung at the lowest percentage of pitches outside the zone, the Cubs the second lowest.
• Batters had a hard time making contact against both pitching staffs: The Mets were 11th in contact rate, the Cubs 12th. And they kept fly balls in the yard, as Mets pitchers were tenth in homers/fly balls, the Cubs eleventh.
• Both pitching staffs struck out a lot of batters, though, contrary to perception, the Cubs hurlers struck out more, with the highest strikeout rate in the league. The Mets were fifth. Both avoided bases on balls, as the Mets had the second lowest walk rate and the Cubs the fourth lowest.
• Both teams' pitchers induced a lot of grounders, with the Cubs and Mets ranking sixth and seventh in percentage of batted balls hit on the ground.

There were some differences. The Cub hitters struck out more (first in the league) than the Mets (eighth), but they also walked more (second highest walk rate, the Mets were sixth). Mets pitchers were more fly ball prone, and Cubs pitchers more line drive prone.

I'm picking the Cubs in seven for three reasons. First, once you adjust for their respective home fields, the Cubs had a better pitching staff. Park-adjusted offense is a bit of a tossup (the Mets overall appear to be a bit better), but park-adjusted pitching isn't. Second, the Cubs's last game was on Tuesday, so their pitching staff will enter the NLCS pretty well rested, while the Mets won't have Jacob deGrom available until the third game of the series, and it's not clear when Noah Syndergaard, who pitched only one inning yesterday but warmed up multiple times, will be ready to go. Third, while both teams came on strong during the second half of the season, the Mets had a considerably easier schedule. Beginning July 28, the Mets played 63 games, going 39-24: Six against the Yankees and Pirates, against whom they went 1-5; nine against the Nationals, who were in meltdown mode; and 48 against teams that finished .500 or worse. The Cubs, over the same stretch, played better--45-19--against a much tougher schedule that included 19 games against teams that qualified for the postseason. As a result, Baseball Prospectus calculates the Cubs with 96 third order wins (based on run differential and quality of opponents) compared to 88 for the Mets. I expect a close series between two similar and evenly matched teams, but I think the Cubs are the better club.

The Draft

This isn't going to be a Pirates-centric post, but let me start with a Pirates-centric comment. Monday, in previewing the series with the Brewers, I wrote

The key would appear to be to strike early against the starters, since the Brewers bullpen's been up to the task of shutting down the opposition in late innings.

For the record: Scoring a total of one run over two games against the Brewers' starters, as the Pirates have done, does not constitute striking early. In fact, it violates the whole "strike early" premise.

Now, the baseball draft. It started Monday. It continues today. I'm not going to say anything about the players drafted, because I don't know the players drafted. Well, I've heard of some of them, but it's not like they're going to step onto the major league roster and have an impact immediately. 

Rather, I want to talk about the baseball draft, and how it differs from the draft in other sports. The NFL draft, is, of course, a spectacle, held at a major venue like Madison Square Garden, broadcast live on ESPN or a network, and the dominant topic on sports talk radio and TV for weeks in advance. The NBA draft is pretty much the same. The MLB draft--well, it goes on for three days, televised on MLB Network, which isn't included in many basic cable packages, and it's filmed in a studio. The MLB draft just isn't the event the NFL and NBA drafts are. Why not?

Here's the key, glaring difference: The NFL and the NBA outsource player development to the NCAA.

I've said this over and over. It explains a lot about the difference between the sports. It explains why MLB player salaries constitute a smaller percentage of team revenues than NFL and NBA player salaries. It explains why there's a thriving minor league system in baseball but not in football or basketball. And it explains why the MLB draft can't, won't, and never will compete with the NFL and NBA drafts.

There are two reasons the MLB draft is way, way different from the NFL and NBA drafts. First, one player in baseball can't turn around a franchise. The Chicago Bulls were 33-49, fourth in the NBA Central in 2007-08. The next year, after drafting Derrick Rose, they improved by eight games and took the 62-20 Celtics to the seventh game in the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts were 2-14, last in the AFC South in 2011. The next year, after drafting Andrew Luck, the team went 11-5 and was beaten in the postseason by eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore. A superstar can turn around a franchise.

In baseball? The biggest impact rookie of late was Mike Trout, who was runner-up in the MVP vote in 2012. Without Trout in 2011, the Angels were 86-76, second in the American League West. With Trout the next year, they were 89-73 and third in the division. They won more games, but they still went home after the season ended. 

Now, granted, I'm being a little fast and loose, particularly with football. Basketball's a five-player game, so one player can have an enormous impact. The Cleveland Cavaliers went to the postseason five straight years with LeBron James with an average record of 54-28. The next four years, with James in Miami, they averaged 24-54. This year, with James back, they were 53-29. Football's a 22-player game, so one player doesn't have the same impact. But as the example of Luck illustrates, one player can, in specific circumstances, change a franchise's direction. In baseball, though? It just doesn't happen that way.
The second, and in my opinion more important, reason that baseball's draft doesn't have the impact of football's or baseball's is the time between drafting and playing. The best players in this year's NFL draft will start for their teams this fall. The best players in this year's NBA draft will start for their teams this winter. The best players in this year's MLB draft...well, we'll see them in a few years. There are exceptions--Brandon Finnegan played for TCU in the College World Series last summer and for the Kansas City Royals in the MLB World Series (albeit with a 10.50 postseason ERA) in October--but most drafted players won't appear in the majors for years. Literally, years. Let's look at the last five rookies of the year in each league. I'm going to list only domestic rookies of the year, since there isn't a functional international draft.

• 2010: Buster Posey was a first-round pick in 2008 and spent two years in the minors. 
• 2011: Craig Kimbrel was a third-round pick in 2008 and spent three years in the minors. Jeremy Hellickson was a fourth-round pick in 2005 and spent six years in the minors.
• 2012: Bryce Harper was the first pick in 2010 and spent two years in the minors. Trout was a first-round pick in 2009 and spent three years in the minors.
• 2013: Jose Fernandez was a first-round pick in 2011 and spent two years in the minors. Wil Myers was a third-round pick in 2009 and spent four years in the minors.
• 2014: Jacob deGrom was a ninth-round pick in 2010 and spent three years (he was injured in 2011) in the minors. 

None of these top players were major-league regulars the year they were drafted. None of them were major-league regulars the year after they were drafted. Posey, Harper, and Fernandez were the only three who were major-league regulars two years after they were drafted.

Why is that? I'll go back to my main argument: The NFL and the NBA outsource player development to the NCAA. After playing college football or basketball, the best college football and basketball players are pretty much ready for the professional game. After playing college baseball, the best baseball players aren't ready for the professional game. The NCAA does a nice job of preparing football and basketball players for the big leagues; it doesn't do it for baseball. Part of it is caliber of competition, part of it is frequency of play, part of it how the game's played, part of it's the type and level of coaching--put all together, and almost every player selected in this year's, or any year's, baseball draft is going to require time in the minors. During those minor league seasons, some players will get hurt, Some will prove to be ineffective. Some will have a major weakness exposed as they face progressively better competition. All of these factors make the major league draft much, much more of a crapshoot than the other drafts. The 2009 baseball draft was fabulous, yet of the 24 players drafted before Trout, seven haven't made it out of the minors, three hitters have yet to appear in 100 games, and four pitchers have yet to appear in 50 games. That's 14 of 24 players, in a bumper year, who aren't yet major league regulars six years later. 

The baseball draft is just different. It's not going to be the spectacle the NFL and NBA drafts are, and it's not going to generate the franchise-changing talents the other drafts yield. 

Time for Awards

Yeah, I know, they won't be announced until after the Series. But the voters have to submit their ballots before postseason play. More significantly, the deadline for Baseball Prospectus's Internet Voting Awards is next Friday, and I voted (my ballot is here), so here we go.

Annual disclaimer: Note that this blog is called On The Field of Play. Awards aren't on the field of play. So this is going to be short. I'm going to list who I think should get each award and who I think will receive it. Then let's move on, OK? It's the postseason.

Disclaimer: I don't feel a team's won-lost record is relevant. I don't think awards should be limited to players whose teams play in the postseason. I also don't buy that pitchers shouldn't be eligible for the MVP award. That's my opinion. You might not agree. Many voters don't. That's cool. Just want you to know where I'm coming from.

AL MVP
Who should get it: Last year, I agonized over this one. This year, it's one of three absurdly easy awards to call. The Angels' Mike Trout led the league in runs, RBI, and total bases; was third in slugging percentage, home runs, and OPS; and played a key defensive position (center field), and played it well.

Who will get it: The only question is whether it'll be unanimous.

NL MVP
Who should get it: There are several players who, in my view, had good years. I'll list them by OPS:

Player	OPS	Tm	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
Andrew McCutchen	.952	PIT	548	89	172	38	6	25	83	84	8	115	9	18	3	.314	.410	.542
Giancarlo Stanton	.950	MIA	539	89	155	31	1	37	105	94	24	170	16	13	1	.288	.395	.555
Anthony Rizzo	.913	CHC	524	89	150	28	1	32	78	73	7	116	8	5	4	.286	.386	.527
Yasiel Puig	.863	LAD	558	92	165	37	9	16	69	67	3	124	7	11	7	.296	.382	.480
Buster Posey	.854	SFG	547	72	170	28	2	22	89	47	5	69	16	0	1	.311	.364	.490
Jayson Werth	.849	WSN	534	85	156	37	1	16	82	83	3	113	9	9	1	.292	.394	.455
Jonathan Lucroy	.837	MIL	585	73	176	53	2	13	69	66	3	71	13	4	4	.301	.373	.465
Carlos Gomez	.833	MIL	574	95	163	34	4	23	73	47	0	141	10	34	12	.284	.356	.477
Anthony Rendon	.824	WSN	613	111	176	39	6	21	83	58	2	104	11	17	3	.287	.351	.473

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2014.

However, the question isn't which hitter had the best year; it's whether the award will go to a hitter or a pitcher. Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw went 21-3, led the league in ERA for the fourth straight year--his 1.77 ERA was less than half the league average of 3.66--and he was first in WHIP (0.86), strikeouts/walks (7.7), and complete games (6) and third in strikeouts (first in strikeouts per nine innings) despite starting only 27 games due to an early-season stint on the disabled list. I voted for Pittsburgh's McCutchen (followed by Miami's Stanton) because of that DL stay; I weighted McCutchen's 648 plate appearances (tied for 16th) over Kershaw's 749 batters faced (37th). But I'd be fine with Kershaw winning...

Who will get it: ...which is a good thing, because he will.

AL Cy Young
Who should get it: I thought Cleveland's Corey Kluber and Seattle's Felix Hernandez stood out this year. Let's break them down:

Player	G	GS	CG	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Corey Kluber	34	34	3	18	9	.667	0	235.2	207	72	64	51	269	2.44	14	.233	.279	.345
Felix Hernandez	34	34	0	15	6	.714	0	236.0	170	68	56	46	248	2.14	16	.200	.243	.303

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/10/2014.

Kluber generated his record despite playing with a weak defense behind him. Hernandez pitches in a pitcher-friendly ballpark but got limited run support (3.5 runs per 27 outs when he was in the game, 12th lowest in the league). Both pitched for teams that made a run for, and fell short of, the post-season. I was all set to vote for Hernandez given that he played in the same division as two of the best teams in baseball (Angels and A's) while Kluber pitched in the weak American League Central, but Behind the Box Score calculated that Kluber's opponent-adjusted run prevention was superior. So I voted for him.

Who will get it: With no obvious choice among the three division winners, I suspect King Felix will win his second award of the decade.

NL Cy Young
Who should get it: Kershaw, obviously. Adam Wainwright of St. Louis and Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati had good years, but there is not a race.

Who will get it: As I said, there are three absurdly easy races to call this year. Trout for AL MVP is the first. This is the second.

AL Rookie of the Year
Who should get it: And this is the third. Chicago slugger Jose Abreu was fifth in batting average and on base percentage, first in slugging, third in homers, and second in OPS. Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka was an early favorite but was sidelined from early July to late September with elbow woes, limiting him to 20 starts.

Who will get it: Abreu. It won't be close.

NL Rookie of the Year
Who should get it: The favorite much of the season was Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton, who had a surprisingly good glove in center field settled into the Reds' leadoff position, stealing 56 bases. I give him two major demerits, though. First, his .292 on base percentage really doesn't cut it for a leadoff hitter. The league average was .326, and the Reds were second to last in leadoff hitter on base percentage. That's why Hamilton, despite his blazing speed and starting 136 games in the leadoff position, was tied for only 34th in runs scored. Second, Hamilton somehow managed to get caught stealing on  29% of his steal attempts, worse than the league average of 28%. So my pick is Mets starter Jacob deGrom, who compiled a 9-6 record with a 2.69 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning after being called up in mid-May.

Who will get it: It'll be close between Hamilton and deGrom. I think the voters will probably be swayed by Hamilton's raw steals and strong defense without considering his poor on-base skills and pedestrian stolen base success percentage.

AL Manager of the Year
Who should get it: I voted for Baltimore's Buck Showalter, New York's Joe Girardi, and Cleveland's Terry Francona, in that order. Showalter guided a team picked by many to finish last in its division to the second-best record in the league. Girardi had to deal with injuries to his entire starting rotation, two free agent busts (Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran), and (ahem) the worst OPS in the league from the shortstop position, and still got 84 wins. Francona led a team expected to decline after a postseason appearance last year to 85 wins and postseason contention well into September. 

Who will get it: I imagine Showalter will walk away with it. Angels manager Mike Sciocia will probably get votes too.

NL Manager of the Year
Who should get it: My pick's Pittsburgh's Clint Hurdle who, like Francona, guided a team to a surprising playoff bid in 2013 but was expected to decline in 2014. Instead, the Pirates made it to October again (barely, getting bounced in the wild card game). I suspect San Francisco's Bruce Bochy will get support too, as will Washington's rookie skipper Matt Williams. Again, these votes take place before the postseason, so the voters didn't have the benefit of seeing Bochy kind of manage circles around Williams in their Divisional Series.

Who will get it: I imagine this will be horse race between Bochy, who was dealt a tough injury hand this year, and Williams. I hope for the sake of the Baseball Writers Association of America electorate that it's Bochy.