Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Championship Series Edition

I batted .500 in the wild cards round, getting the Cubs over the Pirates but not the Astros over the Cubs. I did better in the Divisional Series round, correctly picking Toronto over Texas, Kansas City over Houston, and Chicago over St. Louis, missing New York over Los Angeles. (For those of you who listened to my Banished to the Pen podcast appearance, my pick of Toronto over Los Angeles in the World Series is already kaput.) 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - TORONTO VS. KANSAS CITY

The American League Division Series offered the possibility of interesting Championship Series matchups: Power vs. power Toronto/Houston. All-Lone Star State Texas/Houston. Instead, we've got what was probably the most likely outcome: The two teams with the best record in the American League. Both American League Division Series went the full five games, so the teams have equally depleted pitching staffs. Toronto will start Marco Estrada tonight, David Price tomorrow afternoon, and Marcus Stroman Monday night against the Royals' Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Johnny Cueto, respectively.

This series, like Kansas City's against Houston, features some contrasts in hitting, though fewer than in the Division Series. The Blue Jays led the league in home runs; the Royals were second to last. Toronto drew the most walks, Kansas City the fewest. But the Blue Jays don't pair strikeouts with power: They had the fourth lowest strikeout rate, though Kansas City had the lowest by far. As a result, while the Royals get kudos for making contact when they swing, their contact rate, second in the league, isn't dramatically higher than that of the Jays (seventh), and the Jays are less free-swinging, chasing the second lowest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone as the Royals chased the second highest

Both teams made big pitching acquisitions at the trade deadline, with the Royals adding Cueto and the Blue Jays getting Price. Since the All-Star break, Blue Jays pitchers allowed the lowest rate of hard contact on batted balls, the third highest rate of soft contact, and the lowest rate of home runs on fly balls. The Royals were seventh on all three measures. Over the full season, the Royals had the better bullpen, but the two teams' relievers were very close in the season's second half, with a 3.33 ERA for Kansas City and a 3.35 ERA for Toronto. Toronto's relievers struck out fewer batters but walked a lot fewer. 

Toronto got here by playing one of the most memorable playoff games ever in the deciding Game Five. Kansas City's Game Five win was much less exciting. But it's not a carryover of momentum or emotion or heart that's going to decide the series. It's talent, and from what I can see, the Blue Jays have more at the plate and in their starting rotation, with the Royals having better fielders and a better bullpen. I'll take the Blue Jays' plusses over the Royals'. Toronto in six.


NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - CHICAGO VS. NEW YORK

There could be as many four dates on which there will be both ALCS and NLCS games: Saturday the 17th and Tuesday the 20th for sure, Wednesday the 21st and Saturday the 24th depending on how far the series go. Gee, which of the two games on those dates do you think will get the prime time slot: Kansas City (No. 31 media market in US) vs. Toronto (No. 1 in Canada, a nation with a population less than that of California), or Chicago (No. 3 in US) vs. New York (No. 1)? [UPDATE: I wrote that before MLB announced the official start times. I was 75% right. The Cubs-Mets game is prime time on October 17, October 20, and, if the ALCS goes to five games, October 21. It'll be the afternoon game on October 24, but only if the ALCS goes to seven games.]

These two teams are surprisingly similar. You think of the Cubs, and you think of young hitters, and you'd be right: per Baseball Reference, Cubs hitters are the second youngest in the league. You think of the Mets, and you think of young pitchers, and you'd be kind of right: Baseball Reference lists the Mets as the seventh youngest, but that's thrown off by the presence of 42-year-old Bartolo Colon; remove him and they're second or third youngest. But here are the similarities:

• On offense, both teams are extreme fly ball hitters. The Cubs and Mets were 1-2 in the 15-team National League in percentage of batted balls that were fly balls, and 14-15 in the percentage of batted balls that were grounders.
• When they hit the ball in the air, they left the park more than average: the Cubs were fourth in homers/fly balls, the Mets fifth.
• They both refused to chase pitches outside the strike zone. The Mets swung at the lowest percentage of pitches outside the zone, the Cubs the second lowest.
• Batters had a hard time making contact against both pitching staffs: The Mets were 11th in contact rate, the Cubs 12th. And they kept fly balls in the yard, as Mets pitchers were tenth in homers/fly balls, the Cubs eleventh.
• Both pitching staffs struck out a lot of batters, though, contrary to perception, the Cubs hurlers struck out more, with the highest strikeout rate in the league. The Mets were fifth. Both avoided bases on balls, as the Mets had the second lowest walk rate and the Cubs the fourth lowest.
• Both teams' pitchers induced a lot of grounders, with the Cubs and Mets ranking sixth and seventh in percentage of batted balls hit on the ground.

There were some differences. The Cub hitters struck out more (first in the league) than the Mets (eighth), but they also walked more (second highest walk rate, the Mets were sixth). Mets pitchers were more fly ball prone, and Cubs pitchers more line drive prone.

I'm picking the Cubs in seven for three reasons. First, once you adjust for their respective home fields, the Cubs had a better pitching staff. Park-adjusted offense is a bit of a tossup (the Mets overall appear to be a bit better), but park-adjusted pitching isn't. Second, the Cubs's last game was on Tuesday, so their pitching staff will enter the NLCS pretty well rested, while the Mets won't have Jacob deGrom available until the third game of the series, and it's not clear when Noah Syndergaard, who pitched only one inning yesterday but warmed up multiple times, will be ready to go. Third, while both teams came on strong during the second half of the season, the Mets had a considerably easier schedule. Beginning July 28, the Mets played 63 games, going 39-24: Six against the Yankees and Pirates, against whom they went 1-5; nine against the Nationals, who were in meltdown mode; and 48 against teams that finished .500 or worse. The Cubs, over the same stretch, played better--45-19--against a much tougher schedule that included 19 games against teams that qualified for the postseason. As a result, Baseball Prospectus calculates the Cubs with 96 third order wins (based on run differential and quality of opponents) compared to 88 for the Mets. I expect a close series between two similar and evenly matched teams, but I think the Cubs are the better club.

Next Up: The Kansas City Royals

"Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher."

That quote, attributed to Hall of Fame Orioles manager Earl Weaver, sums up one of baseball's appeals to me. The game is played almost every day of the week for six months straight. If you lose today, there's a game tomorrow, starting with a score of 0-0. The idea of one game or a handful of games that turn around a team's entire season is hard to justify in a sport in which the season consists of 162, rather than 16 (NFL) of 82 (NHL and NFL) games.

Just as a demoralizing loss can be put in a team's rear view mirror in 24 hours, so is the impact of a dramatic win limited and, as far as I'm concerned, often overstated. A come-from-behind or walkoff victory is exciting, but there's still a game the next day, starting at 0-0. If you think the positive vibes carry over for the victor (or harm the loser), consider the Pirates, winner of back-to-back extra-inning walkoff victories against the Cardinals prior to the All-Star break, cutting St. Louis's lead in the Central Division from 4.5 games at the start of their four game series to 2.5. Now, three games into the second half of the season, the Cardinals are back to leading by 4.5 games, having taken two out of three from a Mets team that's on the periphery of the National League wild card race, while the Pirates were swept in Milwaukee by the team with the worst record in the National League Central. Just as I'd caution against reading much into the Pirates' two victories against the Cardinal before the break and what they say about the two teams, so I don't read much into the three games since the break. It's a long season, and momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

The next day's starting pitcher for the Pirates to begin a three-game series against the Royals in Kansas City are their two All-Star starters, A.J. Burnett and Gerrit Cole, as the team tries to turn things around against the best team in the American League.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Royals are one of the biggest surprise teams in baseball this year. Yes, they lasted until the seventh game of the World Series last October, but they made the postseason only as a wild card team, kind of lucked their way past the A's in the wild card play-in, and lost a couple key players (starting pitcher James Shields, DH Billy Butler) over the winter. They were picked by many (including me) to miss the postseason this year, finishing behind the Tigers, Indians, and, in the opinion of some (including me), White Sox in the American League Central. Of the predictors I track (Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, ESPN), I had them with most wins: 79, a sub-.500 season. Instead, they have the best record in the American League, 55-35, six games ahead of the even more surprising Minnesota Twins.

Over the last 30 days, the Royals are also the best team in the league at 17-9. They've scored the eighth most runs per game, 4.35, and given up the eighth fewest, 4.00, suggesting they've been a little lucky over the stretch (a team with that run differential is most likely to go about 14-12), but this is no fluke team: they've scored 67 more runs than they've given up this year, tied with the Dodgers for the biggest run differential in baseball after the Cardinals.

What's Going Right? The Royals' bullpen is a key strength, as the relievers are fourth in the American League in ERA and strikeout rate, fifth in ground ball rate and avoiding hard contact on batted balls, and the lead the American League in both holds and saves (but also blown saves) over the past 30 days. They've worked a lot, though, as their 87.1 innings pitched tops the Junior Circuit during the period. 

On offense, they're second in the league in batting and on base percentage over the past 30 days but ninth in slugging. If you followed the Royals' postseason run last year, you got familiar with their offensive storyline: Not a lot of walks, strikeouts, or homers, but plenty of stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. They've been true to form over the last 30 days: fifth-lowest walk rate, lowest strikeout rate, sixth fewest home runs, most stolen bases, sixth-most sacrifice hits. Basically, they've gotten on base enough that the lack of power hasn't prevented them from scoring runs, though again, their runs per game are exactly in the middle of the American League.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitching has been shaky, with a 4.23 ERA over the past 30 days, along with the second-lowest strikeout rate and the fourth-highest walk rate in the league. Though the starters' control is good--they lead the league in percentage of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days--they're not fooling batters, who've swung at only 29% of pitches outside the zone, the second-lowest percentage in the league. 

Who's Hot? The three workhorses in the bullpen are Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. The trio's combined for 1.88 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 38.1 innings over the past 30 days. The rest of the bullpen's been pretty good too, with a 2.94 combined ERA. (As an aside, here's a fun fact: Wade Davis's career ERA as a reliever, 1.40, is more then three runs better than his career ERA as a starter, 4.57).

The Royals have three batters with on base percentages in excess of .400 over the past 30 days: center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who's been absolutely on fire (.429/.500/.753 slash line with a team-leading seven stolen bases), shortstop Alcides Escobar (.346 batting average, .409 on base percentage, though only four extra base hits) and left fielder Alex Gordon (.298/.420/.474 but unfortunately disabled until September with a groin pull).

Who's Not? The only Royals starter with an ERA below 3.70 over the past 30 days is Danny Duffy, whom the Pirates won't face. Instead, they'll go against Yordano Ventura (in only his second start since June 12 as he's dealt with hand and elbow issues), Jason Vargas (coming off the disabled list; he last pitched on June 8), and former Pirate Edinson Volquez. Volquez has a 3.71 ERA but--sounds familiar, Pirates fans?--not enough strikeouts (14.2% of batters faced, the league average is 18.9%) and too many walks (8.1% of batters faced, the league average is 6.7%).

It's easy to make fun of Royals hitters, since the team's fans voted five of them to the All-Star team. Over the past 30 days, two of them have been bad. (The others are Cain, Escobar, and Gordon). Catcher Salvador Perez has hit five homers but has a .179 batting average, .198 on base percentage, and only one walk over the past month. Manager Ned Yost has a reputation for overworking his young (Santana turned 25 in May) backstop, but unlike last year, when he caught nearly 130 more innings than any other American League catcher, he's only tied with Seattle's Mike Zunino for the most innings behind the plate this year in the American League, and those two trail St. Louis's Yadier Molina, who's caught 7% more innings. Third baseman Mike Moustakas, who got off to a hot start, has a decidedly un-hot .224/.287/.355 slash line over the past 30 days. Almost-got-voted-to-the-All-Stars second baseman Omar Infante is hitting .240/.262/.280. For a frame of reference, the American League average slash line over the past 30 days is .254/.312/.411.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates enter the series with a 53-38 record, 4.5 behind St. Louis and 2.5 behind Kansas City. Add to that the fact that the Royals play in the better league, and it's hard to conclude anything but that the Royals are the stronger team so far. But that doesn't mean they're unbeatable. The Pirates will face two pitchers with a lot of rust on them and one whom they know very well. And the rotation is the Royals' weak spot. If you can run up the score against the Kansas City starters, you're in a good position to win. You just want to keep them from handing the ball to that bullpen in late innings with a lead.

Flyover: Pittsburgh Pirates

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. The last post was about the NL Central leader, St. Louis, so let's stay in the National League Central with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Pirates are 18-8 over the past 30 days entering play today. That's the best record in the league. They're fourth in scoring at 4.7 runs per game and they're allowed by far the fewest runs per game, 2.7. The league's averaging 3.9 runs per game on offense and allowing 4.0 runs per game (the discrepancy due to interleague play). As a result, they seem to have a pretty secure hold on a postseason spot. They're 2.5 games behind the Cardinals in the division, a game behind the Giants for the first wild card, and 4.5 ahead of Milwaukee in the race for the second wild card. 

What's Going Right? The offense has been good, the pitching has been good. The Pirates are batting .281, third in the league, over the past 30 days, with a .336 on base percentage, also third, and the best slugging percentage in the league, .467. They've also been tough to fan, striking out on 18% of plate appearances, third lowest in the league, compared to a league average of 21%. The pitching's been pretty ridiculous: 2.29 ERA overall, 2.70 for starters and an absurd 1.38 for relievers. All those ERAs are first in the league.

What's Going Wrong? Not a lot. They've been pretty bad basestealers, with nine stolen bases (second fewest) against eight caught stealing (tied for fifth highest). There's been some luck involved in those pitching numbers. There are three statistics for which large deviations from league averages generally don't persist: batting average on balls in play (all batted balls excluding homers), percentage of baserunners stranded on base, and percentage of fly balls resulting in home runs. A team that performs exceptionally well in those metrics typically can't keep it up. Pirates pitchers have allowed the lowest batting average on balls in play, stranded the highest percentage of baserunners, and given up the second-fewest homers as a percentage of fly balls over the past 30 days. They're due for regression.

Then there's the matter of their schedule. Over the last 30 days, the only teams the Pirates have played with a winning record are the slumping Brewers (against whom they're 3-1 entering tonight's game) and the Cardinals (against whom they're 2-4). They're 13-3 against teams with losing records. There's nothing wrong with that--good teams generally beat bad team--but those games have pumped up their team stats.

Who's Hot? There hasn't been an easy out among the top five hitters in the Pirates lineup. The league has a .249/.312/.383 batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage slash line over the past 30 days. Here's the top of the Pirates order:

1. Josh Harrison, 3B .369/.387/.573
2. Starling Marte, LF .365/.419/.488
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF .327/.372/.558
4. Neil Walker, 2B .290/.366/.520
5. Russell Martin, C .321/.398/.580

Hard to ask for more than that.

The Pirates' two best starters over the past 30 days have been Edinson Volquez (2-0, 1.93 ERA) and Francisco Liriano (3-0, 0.82 ERA). Volquez has probably been a little lucky--his strikeout rate is well below average, his walk rate well above average--but Liriano appears to be peaking at the right time. The eighth and ninth inning pitchers, Tony Watson and Mark Melancon, have been pretty unhittable, allowing 18 hits (no homers) and two walks over 28 innnings, striking out 33 en route to a 0.32 ERA.

Who's Not? Right field has been an issue all year for the Bucs, and the current incumbent, Travis Snyder, has a slash line of only .196/.297/.286 over the past 30 days. First base has been another weak spot, with Ike Davis batting .229 with only three homers over the past month. A couple starters, Gerrit Cole and Vance Worley, have ERAs above 4.00, but barely, at 4.31 and 4.03, respectively.

What's the Outlook? Assuming the Pirates don't catch the Cardinals, they will almost certainly be a wild card team, with a one-game play-in against (as of today's games) the Giants. San Francisco's 2-4 against the Bucs this year but has been a slightly better hitting team against lefties than righties, potentially neutralizing Liriano (assuming he starts the play-in game). The Pirates have been hot, but it seems to me that they'll be challenged to keep it going deep into the postseason.