Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Championship Series Edition

I batted .500 in the wild cards round, getting the Cubs over the Pirates but not the Astros over the Cubs. I did better in the Divisional Series round, correctly picking Toronto over Texas, Kansas City over Houston, and Chicago over St. Louis, missing New York over Los Angeles. (For those of you who listened to my Banished to the Pen podcast appearance, my pick of Toronto over Los Angeles in the World Series is already kaput.) 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - TORONTO VS. KANSAS CITY

The American League Division Series offered the possibility of interesting Championship Series matchups: Power vs. power Toronto/Houston. All-Lone Star State Texas/Houston. Instead, we've got what was probably the most likely outcome: The two teams with the best record in the American League. Both American League Division Series went the full five games, so the teams have equally depleted pitching staffs. Toronto will start Marco Estrada tonight, David Price tomorrow afternoon, and Marcus Stroman Monday night against the Royals' Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Johnny Cueto, respectively.

This series, like Kansas City's against Houston, features some contrasts in hitting, though fewer than in the Division Series. The Blue Jays led the league in home runs; the Royals were second to last. Toronto drew the most walks, Kansas City the fewest. But the Blue Jays don't pair strikeouts with power: They had the fourth lowest strikeout rate, though Kansas City had the lowest by far. As a result, while the Royals get kudos for making contact when they swing, their contact rate, second in the league, isn't dramatically higher than that of the Jays (seventh), and the Jays are less free-swinging, chasing the second lowest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone as the Royals chased the second highest

Both teams made big pitching acquisitions at the trade deadline, with the Royals adding Cueto and the Blue Jays getting Price. Since the All-Star break, Blue Jays pitchers allowed the lowest rate of hard contact on batted balls, the third highest rate of soft contact, and the lowest rate of home runs on fly balls. The Royals were seventh on all three measures. Over the full season, the Royals had the better bullpen, but the two teams' relievers were very close in the season's second half, with a 3.33 ERA for Kansas City and a 3.35 ERA for Toronto. Toronto's relievers struck out fewer batters but walked a lot fewer. 

Toronto got here by playing one of the most memorable playoff games ever in the deciding Game Five. Kansas City's Game Five win was much less exciting. But it's not a carryover of momentum or emotion or heart that's going to decide the series. It's talent, and from what I can see, the Blue Jays have more at the plate and in their starting rotation, with the Royals having better fielders and a better bullpen. I'll take the Blue Jays' plusses over the Royals'. Toronto in six.


NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES - CHICAGO VS. NEW YORK

There could be as many four dates on which there will be both ALCS and NLCS games: Saturday the 17th and Tuesday the 20th for sure, Wednesday the 21st and Saturday the 24th depending on how far the series go. Gee, which of the two games on those dates do you think will get the prime time slot: Kansas City (No. 31 media market in US) vs. Toronto (No. 1 in Canada, a nation with a population less than that of California), or Chicago (No. 3 in US) vs. New York (No. 1)? [UPDATE: I wrote that before MLB announced the official start times. I was 75% right. The Cubs-Mets game is prime time on October 17, October 20, and, if the ALCS goes to five games, October 21. It'll be the afternoon game on October 24, but only if the ALCS goes to seven games.]

These two teams are surprisingly similar. You think of the Cubs, and you think of young hitters, and you'd be right: per Baseball Reference, Cubs hitters are the second youngest in the league. You think of the Mets, and you think of young pitchers, and you'd be kind of right: Baseball Reference lists the Mets as the seventh youngest, but that's thrown off by the presence of 42-year-old Bartolo Colon; remove him and they're second or third youngest. But here are the similarities:

• On offense, both teams are extreme fly ball hitters. The Cubs and Mets were 1-2 in the 15-team National League in percentage of batted balls that were fly balls, and 14-15 in the percentage of batted balls that were grounders.
• When they hit the ball in the air, they left the park more than average: the Cubs were fourth in homers/fly balls, the Mets fifth.
• They both refused to chase pitches outside the strike zone. The Mets swung at the lowest percentage of pitches outside the zone, the Cubs the second lowest.
• Batters had a hard time making contact against both pitching staffs: The Mets were 11th in contact rate, the Cubs 12th. And they kept fly balls in the yard, as Mets pitchers were tenth in homers/fly balls, the Cubs eleventh.
• Both pitching staffs struck out a lot of batters, though, contrary to perception, the Cubs hurlers struck out more, with the highest strikeout rate in the league. The Mets were fifth. Both avoided bases on balls, as the Mets had the second lowest walk rate and the Cubs the fourth lowest.
• Both teams' pitchers induced a lot of grounders, with the Cubs and Mets ranking sixth and seventh in percentage of batted balls hit on the ground.

There were some differences. The Cub hitters struck out more (first in the league) than the Mets (eighth), but they also walked more (second highest walk rate, the Mets were sixth). Mets pitchers were more fly ball prone, and Cubs pitchers more line drive prone.

I'm picking the Cubs in seven for three reasons. First, once you adjust for their respective home fields, the Cubs had a better pitching staff. Park-adjusted offense is a bit of a tossup (the Mets overall appear to be a bit better), but park-adjusted pitching isn't. Second, the Cubs's last game was on Tuesday, so their pitching staff will enter the NLCS pretty well rested, while the Mets won't have Jacob deGrom available until the third game of the series, and it's not clear when Noah Syndergaard, who pitched only one inning yesterday but warmed up multiple times, will be ready to go. Third, while both teams came on strong during the second half of the season, the Mets had a considerably easier schedule. Beginning July 28, the Mets played 63 games, going 39-24: Six against the Yankees and Pirates, against whom they went 1-5; nine against the Nationals, who were in meltdown mode; and 48 against teams that finished .500 or worse. The Cubs, over the same stretch, played better--45-19--against a much tougher schedule that included 19 games against teams that qualified for the postseason. As a result, Baseball Prospectus calculates the Cubs with 96 third order wins (based on run differential and quality of opponents) compared to 88 for the Mets. I expect a close series between two similar and evenly matched teams, but I think the Cubs are the better club.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Division Series Round

Well, that was clever. Wrote the previews, then forget to publish them. These are a day old. Sorry.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas vs. Toronto: This series is viewed as the most lopsided among the Division Series, with Toronto heavily favored. I agree. Texas' big trading deadline acquisition, lefthanded starter Cole Hamels, will start in the second game on Friday and, if necessary, in the fifth game on Wednesday. However, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League against lefties. They scored the most runs in the league (5.7 per game; the Rangers were a distant second at 5.1) and gave up the fewest (3.7; the Rangers were eighth at 4.6). I could see the Blue Jays sweeping this one. [Note: I wrote this before the Rangers won last night's game, 5-3. I still think the Jays will win the series. I'm assuming third baseman Josh Donaldson and right fielder Jose Bautista, who left Thursday's game with injuries, are healthy.] For a more comprehensive look at this series, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Barry Gilpin's preview here.

Houston vs. Kansas City: Another series with a clear favorite, as the Astros fell out of the American League West lead late in the season and struggled to qualify as a wild card, while the Royals had the best record in the American League. However, the Astros overall played better ball than their record indicated, based on the underlying statistics, while the Royals won five more games than their run production would predict. These two teams are a stark contrast: Houston hits home runs and strikes out in bunches, Kansas City batters led the league in contact and had the lowest strikeout rate, by far. Kansas City had a surprisingly weak rotation and a shutdown bullpen; Houston's rotation was solid, anchored by likely Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, and a bullpen that looked gassed down the stretch. I'm favoring the Royals in five because the Astros will get only one game from Keuchel and because the Royals pitchers were very effective against fly ball hitters, and no team hit a larger proportion of fly balls than the Astros. [Note: I wrote this before the Astros won last night's game, 5-2. I'm not feeling good about that prediction; if the Royals don't win today, it's going to be a real struggle for them.] For a more comprehensive look at the series, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Cardinals had the best record in baseball, but the Cubs had the third best. Like the Astros, the Cubs have a Cy Young candidate, Jake Arrieta, who was used in the wild card game and will thus be available in only Game 3 of this series. Unlike the Astros, who faded in the stretch, the Cubs had the best record in the National League in the second half of the year, scoring the second must runs in the league and allowing the third fewest since the All-Star break. The Cardinals are relying on a number of players coming off injuries who may or may not be at their best: catcher Yadier Molina, pitcher Adam Wainwright (who'll be available only out of the bullpen), and outfielders Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, and Stephen Piscotty. Pitcher Carlos Martinez is out with a shoulder injury and first baseman Matt Adams, recovering from a leg injury, is not on the Division Series roster. I pick the Cubs in four games. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

New York vs. Los Angeles: It's hard to imagine a New York vs. Los Angeles series not getting top billing, but the longtime Chicago/St. Louis rivalry and the Cubs' history (107 years since their last World Series championship) may take center stage. The story of this series will be pitching: the Mets' young guns vs. the Dodgers' two Cy Young contenders, lefty Clayton Kershaw and righty Zack Greinke. (The secondary story will be the Madoff-scammed financially constrained Mets vs. the more-money-than-God Dodgers.) Both teams had surprisingly good offenses (the Dodgers were seventh in scoring and the Mets eighth despite both playing in pitcher-friendly parks) and strong closers with OK-not-great middle relief. I'm taking the Dodgers in five games, as the Mets' record was juiced by playing in the very weak National League East (the club was 43-43 outside of their home division) while the Dodgers bullpen, a perennial weakness that helped torpedo their last playoff appearances, seemed to have found its footing after the All-Star break. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Darius Austin's very thorough preview here.

Trailing 30 - September 13

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraphs' Leaders application. Comment for the week: The Blue Jays and Red Sox each have two of the best five hitters in the American League in just about every offensive category over the past 30 days. No wonder they've been winning at a combined .660 pace.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Toronto         18- 8     1. New York        18- 9

2. Texas           18-10     2. Pittsburgh      19-10    

3. Boston          17-10     3. Los Angeles     17- 9         

4. Cleveland       16-10     4. Chicago         17-11   

5. KC, Minnesota   16-11     5. Milwaukee       15-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Detroit          9-17     1. Atlanta          5-24      

2. Oakland         10-16     2. Cincinnati       9-19       

3. Baltimore       11-17        Philadelphia     9-19      

4. Tampa Bay       11-16     4. Arizona         12-17
5. Los Angeles     12-15        Colorado        12-17

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Revere, Tor      .394     1. Escobar, Was     .397  

2. Bradley, Bos     .393     2. Votto, Cin       .373      

3. Donaldson, Tor   .366     3. Braun, Mil       .347           

4. Altuve, Hou      .362     4. Lucroy, Mil      .346          

5. Betts, Bos       .360     5. Prado, Mia       .352       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Gomes, Cle       .165     1. Turner, LA       .169         

2. Lowrie, Hou      .184     2. Bruce, Cin       .184       

3. Escobar, KC      .185     3. Gonzalez, LA     .208
4. Rodriguez, NY    .193     4. Rollins, LA      .214           

5. V Martinez, Det  .203     5. Peterson, Atl    .218      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Revere, Phi      .4522    1. Votto, Cin       .569           

2. Bradley, Bos     .4516    2. Harper, Was      .487         

3. Choo, Tex        .440     3. Escobar, Was     .470         

4. Bautista, Tor    .432     4. Freeman, Atl     .447          

5. Encarnacion, Tor .430     5. Cervelli, Pit    .441      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Bradley, Bos     .821     1. Cespedes, NY     .800        

2. Encarnacion, Tor .798     2. Votto, Cin       .723    

3. Ortiz, Bos       .787     3. Zimmerman, Was   .684       

4. Donaldson, Tor   .693     4. Harper, Was      .674       

5. Moustakas, KC    .675     5. Arenado, Col     .664        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Encarnacion, Tor   11     1. Cespedes, NY       15
2. Davis, Bal         10     2. Gonzalez, Col      11        

3. Ortiz, Bos          9     3. Arenado, Col       10
   Sano, Min           9     4. Kemp, SD            9
5. 3 with              8     5. 3 with              8

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Betts, Bos         25     1. Cespedes, NY       28        

   Bradley, Bos       25     2. Harper, Was        27     

   Donaldson, Tor     25     3. Granderson, NY     23
   Revere, Tor        25        Votto, Cin         23
5. Zobrist, KC        24     5. 3 with             20

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Encarnacion, Tor   35     1. Cespedes, NY       34        

2. Donaldson, Tor     34     2. Kemp, SD           31      

3. Moustakas, KC      28     3. Zimmerman, Was     28       

4. Bradley, Bos       27     4. Arenado, Col       27
   Ortiz, Bos         27     5. Bryant, Chi        25
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Altuve, Hou         7     1. Gordon, Mia        15
2. Andrus, Tex         6     2. Blackmon, Col       7     

   Cain, KC            6        Pollock, Ari        7   

4. 3 with              5     4. Crawford, LA        5
                                Inciarte, Ari       6
                                                     
   Saves                        Saves

1. Tolleson, Tex      10     1. Melancon, Pit      10

2. Street, LA          8     2. Jansen, LA          9

   Wilhelmsen, Sea     8        Ramos, Mia          9
4. 3 with              7        Rondon, Chi         9
                             5. 3 with              8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Verlander, Det   1.47     1. Arrieta, Chi     0.62

2. Keuchel, Hou     1.50     2. Happ, Pit        1.00

3. Kelly, Bos       1.64     3. Kershaw, LA      1.15

4. Rodon, Chi       2.12     4. Bumgarner, SF    2.08

5. Porcello, Bos    2.15     5. Greinke, LA      2.10

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Nova, NY         7.58     1. Perez, Atl       7.92

2. Tilman, Bal      7.16     2. Rusin, Col       7.14

3. Cueto, KC        7.07     3. Scherzer, Was    6.43

4. Samardzija, Chi  6.03     4. Flande, Col      6.10

5. Jimenez, Bal     5.82     5. de la Rosa, Ari  5.63

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Tomlin, Cle      0.732    1. Arrieta, Chi     0.69

2. Kluber, Cle      0.733    2. Kershaw, LA      0.79
3. Verlander, Det   0.82     3. Happ, Pit        0.806

4. Keuchel, Hou     0.929    4. Bumgarner, SF    0.808
5. Sale, Chi        0.932    5. Greinke, LA      0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          54     1. Kershaw, LA        54     

2. Keuchel, Hou       49     2. Bumgarner, SF      52

3. Ventura, KC        48     3. Kennedy, SD        48

4. Price, Tor         47     4. Arrieta, Chi       46

5. Archer, TB         46     5. Iglesias, Cin      40

Trailing 30 - Father's Day

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: The American League East has been knocked, with some justification, for no longer being the powerhouse it was in recent years. But as I write this, every team but Boston has a winning record, and over the past month, three of the teams have the second, third, and fourth best record in the American League over the past month. 

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Texas           19- 9     1. Pittsburgh      21- 7

2. Toronto         18- 9     2. St. Louis       18- 9    

3. Tampa Bay       17-11     3. San Francisco   15-14         

4. New York        16-11     4. Miami, Arizona  14-14   

5. Oakland         16-12        Chicago         13-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Detroit          9-17     1. Philadelphia     5-22      

2. Boston          11-18     2. Milwaukee       10-18       

   Chicago         11-18     3. New York        12-16      

4. Houston         13-15        Washington      12-16
5. Los Angeles     14-14     5. Colorado        14-16

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Kipnis, Cle      .374     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .412        

2. Springer, Hou    .360     2. Harper, Was      .369      

3. Butler, TB       .353     3. McCutchen, Pit   .353           

4. Cabrera, Det     .352     4. Tulowitzski, Col .347          

5. Pedroia, Bos     .345     5. Cervelli, Pit    .347       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Valbuena, Hou    .140     1. Galvis, Phi      .165          

2. Castellanos, Det .176     2. Bour, Mia        .182       

   Infante, KC      .176     3. Pagan, SF        .184
4. Miller, Sea      .177     4. Desmond, Was     .188           

5. Drew, NY         .180     5. Utley, Phi       .190      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Kipnis, Cle      .462     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .551           

2. Cabrera, Det     .452     2. Harper, Was      .485          

3. Holt, Bos        .441     3. Cervelli, Pit    .443         

4. Rodriguez, NY    .439     4. Carpenter, SL    .423          

5. Bautista, Tor    .438     5. Votto, Cin       .421      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Pujols, LA       .725     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .753        

2. Trout, LA        .607     2. Frazier, Cin     .735     

3. Cabrera, Det     .591     3. Harper, Was      .726       

4. Bautista, Tor    .586     4. Stanton, Mia     .717       

5. McCann, NY       .579     5. Votto, Cin       .635        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Pujols, LA         13     1. Stanton, Mia       13
2. Donaldson, Tor      8     2. Frazier, Cin       10        

   Machado, Bal        8     3. Arenado, Col        9
   Souza, TB           8        Goldschmidt, Ari    9
5. 2 with              7     5. 2 with              8
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Donaldson, Tor     24     1. Frazier, Cin       23        

   Machado, Bal       24     2. LeMahieu, Col      22     

   Pujols, LA         24     3. Arenado, Col       21
4. Dozier, Min        23     4. 3 with             20
   Gardner, NY        23        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Pujols, LA         27     1. Arenado, Col       33        

2. Fielder, Tex       24     2. Stanton, Mia       24      

3. Vogt, Oak          21     3. Frazier, Cin       23       

4. 4 with             20        Goldschmidt, Ari   23
                             5. 2 with             20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Burns, Oak         11     1. Hamilton, Cin      14            

2. Ramirez, Chi        7     2. Blackmon, Col      11     

3. 4 with              6        Gordon, Mia        11   

                             4. Revere, Phi         8
                             5. 2 with              7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Britton, Bal       10     1. Melancon, Pit      14

2. Perkins, Min        8     2. Casilla, SF        10

   Tolleson, Tex       8     3. Ziegler, Ari        9
4. Clippard, Oak       7     4. 5 with              8

   Gregerson, Hou      7     

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gonzalez, Tex    0.90     1. Martinez, SL     1.06

2. Sale, Chi        1.19     2. Cole, Pit        1.06

3. Price, Det       1.19     3. Kershaw, LA      1.56

4. Gallardo, Tex    1.41     4. Garcia, SL       1.59

5. Archer, TB       1.78     5. Morton, Pit      1.62

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Porcello, Bos    7.50     1. Lohse, Mil       7.59

2. McHugh, Hou      6.43     2. Teheran, Atl     6.97

3. Sabathia, NY     6.39     3. de la Rosa, Ari  6.25

4. Lewis, Tex       5.40     4. Frias, LA        6.17

5. Weaver, LA       5.31     5. Nelson, Mil      6.06

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Sale, Chi        0.64     1. Scherzer, Was    0.66

2. Gray, Oak        0.86     2. deGrom, NY       0.74
3. Buehrle, Tor     0.93     3. Kershaw, LA      0.75

4. Gallardo, Tex    0.94     4. Garcia, SL       0.79
5. Price, Det       0.96     5. Liriano, Pit     0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          75     1. Scherzer, Was      57     

2. Archer, TB         55     2. Liriano, Pit       53

3. Wilson, LA         45     3. Kershaw, LA        49

4. 3 with             41     4. Cole, Pit          44

                             5. Hamels, Phi        41

Happy Opening Day!

Here's a fantastic heartwarming piece by the great Joe Posnanski. He calls it "A Baseball Story." It's not. It's a human potential story. Posnanski is a national treasure.

Now, on to the season. Last year I did detailed predictions for each division. Given that the season's started, and I was out of the country since mid-March, I'm not going to do that this year. But let's get some stakes in the ground:

National League East
Washington Nationals, 91-71: There are, in my mind, five locks in baseball this season. Three are in this division. This is one of them. The Nationals are, to me, clearly the best team in the division, arguably in the league.
New York Mets, 84-78: Mets fans are pessimistic about the team. Mets fans have learned their pessimism from experience. Still, even with young righthander Zack Wheeler out with Tommy John surgery, this is a...well, not excellent, but an okay team. Sure, the offense is suspect, but in 2015, just about everybody's offense is suspect.
Miami Marlins, 81-81: The Marlins are kind of a fashionable pick. I don't care for that fashion. The outfield's great, and they have some good arms, but there are too many weaknesses elsewhere for me to get excited.
Atlanta Braves, 69-93: Lock No. 2. The Braves have all but admitted they're in rebuilding mode, shedding stars (Jayson Heyward, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel) for prospects. But they won't be in last place because...
Philadelphia Phillies, 64-98: ...the Phillies are probably the worst team in baseball right now. Lock No. 3

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals, 89-73: Yes, the Cards have a great farm system, but they're also reliant on some older players (Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday) who are going to get old someday. Probably not today, though.
Pittsburgh Pirates, 85-77: Probably the best outfield in baseball, but the loss of catcher Russell Martin to free agency will be felt, and I have a hard time seeing last year's surprise hero, Josh Harrison, duplicating his performance.
Chicago Cubs, 81-81: Cool your jets, Cubs fans. Your farm system's fantastic, even after graduating a lot of guys to the majors. You got Jon Lester and Joe Maddon during the offseason. But this was a last-place, 89-loss team last year. Getting to .500 would be a tremendous improvement.
Milwaukee Brewers, 78-84: They spent most of last season in first place. I'd be surprised if they see much if it this year.
Cincinnati Reds, 72-90: They can't hit, and if they're out of contention at the All-Star Break, they might trade starting pitcher Johnny Cueto, an impending free agent, and then things would get really ugly.

National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers, 94-68: The fourth lock. They've been criticized by some for trading outfielder Matt Kemp and second baseman Dee Gordon, but the replacements (rookie Joc Pederson, former Angel Howie Kendrick) could wind up being just about as good.
San Diego Padres, 86-76: Another trendy pick, as new GM A.J. Preller remade the team. They'll be better, but the infield's awful.
San Francisco Giants, 84-78: No, it's not just because the Giants win only in even-numbered years. They lost third baseman Pablo Sandoval to free agency, outfielder Hunter Pence is on the disabled list, and there are a lot of questions in the rotation after postseason hero Madison Bumgarner.
Colorado Rockies, 78-84: DON'T SAY IT. Yes, I know, this team could be pretty good if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez can stay in the lineup together. But they can't. One or the other will get hurt. Or both. Don't get your hopes up.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 71-91: I wouldn't say they're a lock for last, but they're not a good club, either. Worst record in baseball last year, you know.

American League East
Boston Red Sox, 88-74: Viva la parity. The additions of Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, and the presumed return to health of Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli, makes the team's offense formidable. The pitching...not so much. But this is no longer a killer division.
Toronto Blue Jays, 84-78: Really, you could almost draw the names of these five teams out of a hat; they're all pretty close. I really like the additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin.
New York Yankees, 82-80: Because the Yankees are incapable of finishing a season with a losing record.
Baltimore Orioles, 80-82: Over the past three seasons, the O's have won the second-most games in the American League. I haven't been able to figure out why. The batters don't get on base a lot and the starting rotation is unimpressive if solid. In Buck we trust, I suppose. I'm probably going to be wrong about them again.
Tampa Bay Rays, 77-85: I think the departure of GM Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon are the beginning of the end for one of my favorite teams. (I like small-market, low-budget teams.)

American League Central
Detroit Tigers, 88-74: They've won four divisional titles in a row. The streak will come to an end, probably soon, as the team's getting old. But I don't think this is they year.
Cleveland Indians, 84-78: Another trendy pick, and I would like nothing more than to see this small-market, low-budget team succeed. But the team's pitchers, unbelievable in the second half of the year (2.95 starter ERA, best in the league), are due for regression, and the team's defense won't help. But I'll be pulling for them, if for no other reason than radio announcer Tom Hamilton's home run calls.
Chicago White Sox, 83-79: Another greatly improved team - they lost 89 games last year - but not enough to contend, yet.
Kansas City Royals, 79-83: Yeah, I know, they came within a game of winning the World Championship. But they didn't win their division, and they kind of lucked their way to a wild card win. Over the winter, they lost their No. 1 starter and their DH. I'm not buying sustained success.
Minnesota Twins, 70-92: My fifth and final lock. I've documented my lack of affection for the Twins.

American League West
Seattle Mariners, 89-73: You can make a case that the other two top contenders in this tight division enter 2015 weaker than 2014. Not so the Mariners.
Los Angeles Angels, 86-76: They had the best record in baseball last year. But they enter the season with concerns in the rotation and at second base and overpaid slugger Josh Hamilton recovering from shoulder surgery and a drug relapse.
Oakland Athletics, 79-83: I mentioned that I don't understand how the Orioles have managed the second-most wins in the league over the past three years. I even more don't understand how the A's are No. 1, but they are. What they did this offseason strikes me as a teardown. But I've been wrong before.
Houston Astros, 79-83: Everything is going according to plan. The Astros improved by 19 games last year, and I see another nine this year. Eight or so next year, and they're talking playoffs.
Texas Rangers, 75-87: I thought they might rebound strongly from their injury-riddled 2014, but then ace pitcher Yu Darvish went down with Tommy John surgery.

If the Orioles Are Really Going to Do Something

I think the Orioles should trade for San Diego's Carlos Quentin.

Let me rewind a bit. It's been a very quiet offseason for Baltimore. They lost three regulars from their 2014 American League East championship squad to free agency: Right fielder Nick Markakis, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and left-handed reliever Andrew Miller. They replaced them with...well, they haven't done much of anything. Until yesterday, their biggest roster move was to re-sign free agent left fielder/DH Delmon Young, who had 255 plate appearances last year. Like every team, they added some fringe-type players, mostly signed to minor league contracts. But until yesterday, when they traded for Pirates outfielder Travis Snider, who started 47 games in right field for Pittsburgh last year, they've done nothing to replace the three players I listed above. And while Snider had a decent year in Pittsburgh, with a .264/.338/.438 slash line in 359 plate appearances, it was his first above-average season since 2010. 

There've also been questions raised about the reason for their inactivity. The Toronto Blue Jays wanted to hire Baltimore's general manager, Dan Duquette as their CEO. Duquette is under contract with the Orioles through 2017. Orioles owner Peter Angelos reportedly demanded a king's ransom (three top prospects) from the Blue Jays in order to take Duquette. (Not that this is a common occurrence, but the industry standard appears to be to let a front office employee depart for a promotion, and to get perhaps one prospect as compensation for a lateral move. This would be a promotion for Duquette, who is the Orioles' executive vice president of baseball operations, so Angelos insisting on compensation is a bit aggressive, and going for elite compensation is pretty out there.) This leaves the Orioles in the bizarre position of having their top everyday executive apparently desirous of working for one of Baltimore's American League East opponents. In turn, there's a question as to how dedicated Duquette is in improving the team. Yesterday, the Blue Jays announced that their incumbent CEO, Paul Beeston, will stay on through the end of the current season, after which he'll retire. That, of course, leaves open the question of who'll fill the role in 2016.

Lost in this controversy is the fact that the Orioles didn't do a lot last winter, either, until the very end. In December 2013, they traded for outfielder David Lough, who was basically a late-inning defensive substitute in the outfield (112 games played, but just 47 started) and signed right-handed reliever Ryan Webb, who pitched 49.1 innings of middle relief spread over 51 games. They traded their closer, Jim Johnson, to Oakland in what turned out to be a brilliant move, as Johnson turned into a pumpkin, going from 50 saves and a 2.94 ERA in 2013 to two saves and a 7.09 ERA in 2014. They signed the aforementioned Delmon Young in January. That's pretty much it. Their big moves--signing free agents Ubaldo Jiminez and Cruz--didn't occur until late February, and only the Cruz signing worked out. Jiminez, signed for four years and $50 million, was 6-9 with a 4.81 ERA last season. Cruz, signed to a one-year $8 million contract, led the league in home runs with 40 and finished seventh in the MVP voting. The Mariners signed him to a four year, $57 million contract in December.

So maybe the plan is, like last year, to more or less stand pat and then make some moves once spring training starts. Still, the team is down a right fielder (unless Snider takes a big step forward), a DH, and a middle reliever. Middle relievers are pretty fungible in modern baseball--every team has young guys in their system who can throw gas for an inning. They probably can't do it a skillfully as Miller, who compiled a 2.02 ERA over 73 games split between Boston and Baltimore, striking out 103 and allowing just 53 baserunners (hits, hit batters, and unintentional walks) over 62.1 innings last year, but the Orioles at least have options there. As for Markakis, I wrote back in December that Alejandro de Aza, whom the Orioles acquired last August, may provide comparable value. So I don't view those as glaring holes.

Plus, the Orioles will enter the season with a presumably healthy catcher Matt Wieters (who played just 26 games last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery last June) and third baseman Manny Machado (who missed half the season with various knee ailments). First baseman Chris Davis is done serving a drug suspension for Adderol. So three key players will be back, although Davis was pretty bad last year (.196/.300/.404 slash line and 26 homers after hitting .286/.370/.634 with 53 homers in 2013). If Davis falters, Steve Pearce, who had a .293/.373/.556 slash line last year, easily the best of his career, can play first.

Which leaves designated hitter. That's where Quentin comes in. He was awful for San Diego last year, and only a half-time player the two prior seasons:

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2012	29	86	340	284	44	74	21	0	16	46	36	41	.261	.374	.504	.877	146
2013	30	82	320	276	42	76	21	0	13	44	31	55	.275	.363	.493	.855	145
2014	31	50	155	130	9	23	6	0	4	18	17	33	.177	.284	.315	.599	75
SDP (3 yrs)		218	815	690	95	173	48	0	33	108	84	129	.251	.352	.464	.816	132

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.

So why should the Orioles trade for him? Here's my logic:

• The Orioles can buy low on Quentin, given his lousy recent performance.
• The Padres have a serious logjam in their outfield. They added three full-time players via trade (former Dodger Matt Kemp, former Brave Justin Upton, and former Ray Wil Myers). They still have Will Venable (146 games played last year) and Cameron Maybin (95 games). They need to deal somebody.
• Quentin is signed for $8 million this year, the same as Cruz earned in 2014. His contract has a $10 million mutual option for 2016, subject to a $3 million buyout if he plays 320 games in 2013-2015, which he won't. In other words, he'll cost $8 million in 2015 and $10 million in 2016 if all goes well, nothing if it doesn't. That's pretty reasonable.
• The reason he's missed so much time is that he's had a series of injuries. Since joining the Padres, he's been out with knee, wrist, shoulder, and groin injuries, including three stints covering 152 games on the disabled list. Quentin is a bad outfielder, enough so that he'll probably be healthier if he doesn't have to spend half the game running around chasing balls while wearing a glove. (He also gets hit by pitches a lot.) Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez are Hall of Fame-caliber players who went from oft-injured to extremely durable once they became full-time DHs. Not that Quentin's another Molitor or Martinez, but a full-time DH role could keep him in the lineup more.
• Amplifying that point, prior to playing in San Diego, Quentin played for the White Sox, mostly as an outfielder but also as DH, with better durability:

Year	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2008 ★	25	130	480	96	138	26	1	36	100	66	80	.288	.394	.571	.965	149
2009	26	99	351	47	83	14	0	21	56	31	52	.236	.323	.456	.779	98
2010	27	131	453	73	110	25	2	26	87	50	83	.243	.342	.479	.821	119
2011 ★	28	118	421	53	107	31	0	24	77	34	84	.254	.340	.499	.838	122
CHW (4 yrs)		478	1705	269	438	96	3	107	320	181	299	.257	.352	.505	.857	124

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/28/2015.
• The Padres' home field, Petco Park, is the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball. The 2015 Bill James Baseball Handbook estimates that it suppresses home runs by 12%, home runs by right-handed hitters like Quentin by 24%, and runs by 17% compared to the average NL ballpark. In his three seasons there, Quentin slugged just .394 at home but a robust .510 on the road. His overall numbers were clearly dragged down by his home park. Oriole Park, by contrast, is more hitter-friendly, boosting runs by 5% and righties' homers by 7%. Quentin's overall numbers would benefit from a move.
• Quentin is good at getting on base. Among the 168 players with 2,500 or more plate appearances between 2008 and 2014, he ranks 47th with a .352 on base percentage. The Orioles led the majors in home runs last year, easily, with 211, and were second in the AL in slugging percentage with .422, but only sixth in runs scored, with 705. The reason is that their .311 on base percentage was fifth worst in the league. They didn't get enough guys on base to take advantage of the long balls. The current Orioles roster has only three hitters with 30+ games played last year with a 2014 on base percentage better than the league average of .316: Pearce (.373), Young (.337), and Machado (.324). Quentin would address the team's key offensive weakness. 

Track record as a DH, buy low, reasonable contract (always a plus for Angelos), fills a need...all the Orioles need is for Duquette to continue to show signs of life. Do it, Dan. You're not going to work for the Blue Jays this year anyway.