'Tis Better to Have Played and Lost

Once the New York Yankees were eliminated in the American League wild card game, it was clear that the theme of this postseason was going to be one of redemption. Of the eight teams in the Division Series (other than the St. Louis Cardinals), the Toronto Blue Jays were the team that had most recently won the World Series, and that was back in 1993. Last night, the Kansas City Royals ended their 30-year World Series drought by extending the New York Mets' streak of not winning the Series to 29 years.

Even so, the reaction from a number of teams is legitimately, "cry me a river." Here are a list of the teams that have gone the longest without a World Championship:

ORIGINAL 16 MAJOR LEAGUE FRANCHISES

• Chicago Cubs: Last won in 1908. Last appeared in 1945. You may have heard about this.
• Cleveland Indians: Last won in 1948. Last appeared in 1997.
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Last won in 1979. Last appeared in 1979.
• Baltimore Orioles: Last won in 1983. Last appeared in 1983.
• Detroit Tigers: Last won in 1984. Last appeared in 2012.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Last won in 1988. Last appeared in 1988.
• Oakland Athletics: Last won in 1989. Last appeared in 1990.
• Cincinnati Reds: Last won in 1990. Last appeared in 1990.
• Minnesota Twins: Last won in 1991. Last appeared in 1991.
• Atlanta Braves: Last won in 1995. Last appeared in 1999.
• Chicago White Sox: Last won in 2005. Last appeared in 2005.
• Philadelphia Phillies: Last won in 2008. Last appeared in 2009.
• New York Yankees: Last won in 2009. Last appeared in 2009.
• St. Louis Cardinals: Last won in 2011. Last appeared in 2013.
• Boston Red Sox: Last won in 2013. Last appeared in 2013.
• San Francisco Giants: Last won in 2014. Last appeared in 2014.

EXPANSION FRANCHISES

• Texas Rangers: Never won (franchise established in 1961 as the Washington Senators). Last appeared in 2011.
• Houston Astros: Never won (franchise established in 1962). Last appeared in 2005.
• Milwaukee Brewers: Never won (franchise established in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots). Last appeared in 1982.
• San Diego Padres: Never won (franchise established in 1969). Last appeared in 1988.
• Washington Nationals: Never won (franchise established in 1969 as the Montreal Expos). Never appeared.
• Seattle Mariners: Never won (franchise established in 1977). Never appeared.
• New York Mets: Last won in 1986 (franchise established in 1962). Last appeared in 2015.
• Toronto Blue Jays: Last won in 1993 (franchise established in 1977). Last appeared in 1993.
• Colorado Rockies: Never won (franchise established in 1993). Last appeared in 2007.
• Tampa Bay Rays: Never won (franchise established in 1998). Last appeared in 2008.
• Arizona Diamondbacks: Last won in 2001 (franchise established in 1998). Last appeared in 2001.
• Los Angeles Angels: Last won in 2002 (franchise established in 1961). Last appeared in 2002.
• Miami Marlins: Last won in 2003 (franchise established in 1993). Last appeared in 2003.
• Kansas City Royals: Last won in 2015 (franchise established in 1969). Last appeared in 2015.

So yeah, it's a bummer being a Mets fan today. But 11 of the 30 teams in the majors have been waiting longer for a World Series championship team, including three (the Cubs, Indians, and Senators/Rangers) who've been waiting longer than the Mets have existed.

Your On the Field of Play Postseason Guide - Division Series Round

Well, that was clever. Wrote the previews, then forget to publish them. These are a day old. Sorry.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas vs. Toronto: This series is viewed as the most lopsided among the Division Series, with Toronto heavily favored. I agree. Texas' big trading deadline acquisition, lefthanded starter Cole Hamels, will start in the second game on Friday and, if necessary, in the fifth game on Wednesday. However, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League against lefties. They scored the most runs in the league (5.7 per game; the Rangers were a distant second at 5.1) and gave up the fewest (3.7; the Rangers were eighth at 4.6). I could see the Blue Jays sweeping this one. [Note: I wrote this before the Rangers won last night's game, 5-3. I still think the Jays will win the series. I'm assuming third baseman Josh Donaldson and right fielder Jose Bautista, who left Thursday's game with injuries, are healthy.] For a more comprehensive look at this series, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Barry Gilpin's preview here.

Houston vs. Kansas City: Another series with a clear favorite, as the Astros fell out of the American League West lead late in the season and struggled to qualify as a wild card, while the Royals had the best record in the American League. However, the Astros overall played better ball than their record indicated, based on the underlying statistics, while the Royals won five more games than their run production would predict. These two teams are a stark contrast: Houston hits home runs and strikes out in bunches, Kansas City batters led the league in contact and had the lowest strikeout rate, by far. Kansas City had a surprisingly weak rotation and a shutdown bullpen; Houston's rotation was solid, anchored by likely Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, and a bullpen that looked gassed down the stretch. I'm favoring the Royals in five because the Astros will get only one game from Keuchel and because the Royals pitchers were very effective against fly ball hitters, and no team hit a larger proportion of fly balls than the Astros. [Note: I wrote this before the Astros won last night's game, 5-2. I'm not feeling good about that prediction; if the Royals don't win today, it's going to be a real struggle for them.] For a more comprehensive look at the series, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Cardinals had the best record in baseball, but the Cubs had the third best. Like the Astros, the Cubs have a Cy Young candidate, Jake Arrieta, who was used in the wild card game and will thus be available in only Game 3 of this series. Unlike the Astros, who faded in the stretch, the Cubs had the best record in the National League in the second half of the year, scoring the second must runs in the league and allowing the third fewest since the All-Star break. The Cardinals are relying on a number of players coming off injuries who may or may not be at their best: catcher Yadier Molina, pitcher Adam Wainwright (who'll be available only out of the bullpen), and outfielders Randal Grichuk, Matt Holliday, and Stephen Piscotty. Pitcher Carlos Martinez is out with a shoulder injury and first baseman Matt Adams, recovering from a leg injury, is not on the Division Series roster. I pick the Cubs in four games. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen preview here.

New York vs. Los Angeles: It's hard to imagine a New York vs. Los Angeles series not getting top billing, but the longtime Chicago/St. Louis rivalry and the Cubs' history (107 years since their last World Series championship) may take center stage. The story of this series will be pitching: the Mets' young guns vs. the Dodgers' two Cy Young contenders, lefty Clayton Kershaw and righty Zack Greinke. (The secondary story will be the Madoff-scammed financially constrained Mets vs. the more-money-than-God Dodgers.) Both teams had surprisingly good offenses (the Dodgers were seventh in scoring and the Mets eighth despite both playing in pitcher-friendly parks) and strong closers with OK-not-great middle relief. I'm taking the Dodgers in five games, as the Mets' record was juiced by playing in the very weak National League East (the club was 43-43 outside of their home division) while the Dodgers bullpen, a perennial weakness that helped torpedo their last playoff appearances, seemed to have found its footing after the All-Star break. For more detail, see my Banished to the Pen colleague Darius Austin's very thorough preview here.

Did Yu Know?

Texas Rangers pitcher Yu Darvish is one of the best right-handers in baseball. He also has a first name that sounds just like the work you. This, per Sam Miller at Baseball Prospectus, has proved to be irresistible for mlb.com headline writers.

Sweet Play of the Day: July 22

Rangers outfielder Leonys Martin and Yankees catcher Brian McCann haven't lived up to expectations. Martin, in his second year as Texas's center fielder, hasn't improved at the plate (.698 OPS last year, .696 this year), striking out more frequently and hitting fewer extra base hits. McCann, in the first season of a five-year, $85 million free agent contract signed before the season, has a .294 on base percentage and .373 slugging percentage, both career lows. They both remain in the lineup, though, in part because of their strong defense. Those paths crossed last night, as Martin turned what would have been McCann's eleventh home run of the year into an out.

Adrian Beltre and Immortality

On Tuesday, Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre went 4-for-4 in an 8-2 loss to the Tigers. The first of those four hits, a single to center in the bottom of the second, was the 2,500th hit of Beltre's career. It made Beltre, who turned 35 on April 7, the 32nd player to collect 2,500 hits by age 35. Of the 32, Beltre is the only one to have played over half his games at third base.

Two questions regarding Beltre's legacy: Is he likely to reach 3,000 career hits, and might he get inducted into the Hall of Fame?

Every year, the Bill James Handbook calculates the percentage chance of players reaching various milestones using the player's accomplishments to date, age, and level of performance. This year's Handbook lists Beltre's chance of reaching 3,000 hits at 81%. If the season were to end today, Beltre would have to become the 89th hitter in history to get 490 hits at age 36 or later in order to reach 3,000. (He has 2,510 through June 28.) If we assume that he can get another 75 hits this year (which seems safe; he has 84 in the Rangers' 80 games thus far), he'll need 415. There have been 111 players, ranging from Bill Buckner (419) to Pete Rose (1,494), to have done that. That total includes 11 third basemen:

Player	H	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Tm
Lave Cross	848	1902	1907	36-41	747	2967	360	143	33	4	402	114	64	.286	.314	.360	.675	PHA-WSH
Wade Boggs	743	1994	1999	36-41	672	2407	363	130	13	31	268	334	226	.309	.389	.412	.802	NYY-TBD
Graig Nettles	637	1981	1988	36-43	933	2675	328	90	9	110	404	351	383	.238	.326	.402	.728	NYY-SDP-ATL-MON
Cal Ripken	635	1997	2001	36-40	620	2334	281	116	1	78	326	169	272	.272	.322	.423	.745	BAL
Chipper Jones	609	2008	2012	36-40	604	2086	323	124	4	82	324	360	328	.292	.393	.473	.867	ATL
Gary Gaetti	582	1995	2000	36-41	672	2262	292	121	7	103	362	182	392	.257	.319	.454	.772	KCR-STL-CHC-BOS
Jimmy Dykes	551	1933	1939	36-42	580	2023	227	88	17	22	307	272	144	.272	.365	.365	.730	CHW
Jimmy Austin	489	1916	1929	36-49	604	2010	265	73	32	3	124	257	193	.243	.333	.316	.649	SLB
Brooks Robinson	450	1973	1977	36-40	547	1849	168	69	5	26	199	167	158	.243	.306	.328	.635	BAL
Mike Schmidt	440	1986	1989	36-39	457	1612	256	85	3	90	322	242	223	.273	.368	.497	.865	PHI
Sparky Adams	429	1931	1934	36-39	406	1581	217	87	8	2	89	121	72	.271	.326	.340	.667	STL-CIN

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/29/2014.

The Hall of Fame outlook is even brighter. Despite the stinginess of Hall voters in recent years, 2,500 hits by age 35 has been a near-lock. Of the other 31 players to have reached the milestone, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Alex Rodriguez (still active), Pete Rose (banned from baseball), Derek Jeter (still active), and Vada Pinson (flamed out - hit .223/.248/.335 in 103 games at age 36, his last year in the majors). Takeaway: If Beltre can keep playing at a reasonably high level (he's currently better than that, ranking second in the American League with a .333 batting average) and, in the immortal words of Satchel Paige, go very light on the vices, he stands a good chance being inducted into Cooperstown.

Sweet Play of the Day - May 27

Aaron Hicks may be having his struggles at the plate for the Twins, but he has this playing center field thing down. 

2014 Predictions: AL West

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East along with the American League Central and East. 

Oakland Athletics - 96-66 in 2013, 4.7 runs scored per game (4th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (9th in MLB): I always get the feeling that the A's are just a couple steps ahead of the posse. In the Moneyball era, they had a lot of guys who got on base a lot; now everyone's doing it. Last year they emphasized pitchers who give up fly balls and batters who hit them; probably the league catches up to them on that as well. They've won more games over the past two years than any team in the American League. I think it's going to be hard to keep that streak going. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 91-71.

Texas Rangers - 91-72, 4.5 runs scored per game (8th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (10th in MLB): The Rangers made a couple huge offseason deals, signing on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo to lead off and trading second baseman Ian Kinsler for lefty slugger Prince Fielder. The trade of Kinsler opens up second to Jurickson Profar, a highly-touted prospect who disappointed last year, compiling an OPS that was 24% below the league average (adjusting for his home park), but Profar turned 21 only last month (though he's out with a shoulder injury). The pitching staff is a worry, with last year's Cy Young runner-up followed by a bunch of guys with injury problems. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed,  89-73.

Los Angeles Angels - 78-84, 4.5 runs scored per game (7th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (24th in MLB): Albert Pujols is apparently recovered from his foot problems, Josh Hamilton was OK in the second half of last season, and they still have Mike Trout. Pitching was the problem last year, and they added youngster Tyler Skaggs and  lefty Hector Santiago in the trade for Mark Trumbo. When this team plopped down all that money on Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Hamilton, they thought they were buying pennants. They didn't, but I think they're getting closer. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 83-79.

Seattle Mariners - 71-91, 3.9 runs scored per game (22nd in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (26th in MLB): You might have heard that they signed former Yankees 2B Robinson Cano, one of the best players in baseball. Other than that, their deals were minor, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who finished third in the Cy Young voting, is out with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 76-86.

Houston Astros - 51-111, 3.8 runs scored per game (26th in MLB), 5.2 runs allowed per game (30th in MLB): It's tempting to look at last year's team and just say, "Well, they can't be much worse." I think they'll do better than that. They added CF Dexter Fowler via trade and starting pitchers Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams via free agency. The Astros also have a lot of strong prospects whom we'll likely see later in the season. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 56-106.

Things I Didn't Know: AL West

In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.

I started with the National League (here, here, and here). Let's take the American League, west to east.

Oakland Athletics, 96-66: I don't know what to make of this, but something's going on with the A's and fly balls. Roughly speaking, of all batted balls, 45% are ground balls, 20% are line drives, and 35% are fly balls. Every team in the majors hit at least 40% ground balls...except Oakland, which was also the only team to hit more fly balls than ground balls. Same thing with pitching: Every staff in the majors had at least 40% of all batted balls hit on the ground...except Oakland, which was also the only team whose pitchers allowed more fly balls than ground balls. Over the winter, researcher Andrew Koo hypothesized that Oakland GM Billy Beane of Moneyball fame was exploiting a market inefficiency by recruiting fly ball hitters. (Original research here for Baseball Prospectus subscribers, summarized here.) But if it's true that fly ball hitters have an advantage in a game increasingly dominated by ground ball pitchers, what's up with the fly ball pitchers? Beane knows, I don't, and the A's have won the most games in the AL over the past two years, so it's obviously working.


Texas Rangers, 91-72: The most celebrated free-agent signing of last season was Josh Hamilton, who went from the Rangers to the Angels amid a fair amount of bitterness and recriminations. In 2012, the Rangers led the league in center fielder OPS, .870, with Hamilton getting 55% of plate appearances. They also led the league in left fielder OPS, .899. David Murphy was the primary left fielder, but Hamilton got 34% of plate appearances there as well. In 2013, without Hamilton, Rangers center fielders had a .719 OPS, just tenth in the league, and their left fielders were ninth at .722. Hamilton was a disappointment in Anaheim, with a .250/.307/.432 slash line and 21 homers after hitting .285/.354/.577 with 43 bombs in 2012, but his .739 OPS was still better than what the Rangers trotted out at his old positions last year.

Los Angeles Angels, 78-84: The Angels had some weird situational hitting splits. Angels batters advanced 58% of runners on second with no outs, third best in the league. They drove in 54% of runners from third with fewer than two outs, the best in the league. But with runners on first and fewer than two outs, they hit into double plays 13% of the time, the worst in the league. So they were great with runners on second and third but terrible with runners on first.

Seattle Mariners, 71-91: Not a lot went right for the Mariners, but their decision before the season to bring in the fences at Safeco Field worked. In 2012, Mariners batters hit 56 home runs at home, fewest in the league. In 2013 they had 88, the fourth most. Of course, the fences were brought in for the Mariners' opponents too, but the Mariners pitchers went from giving up 60 at home in 2012 to 82 in 2013. They hit 32 more and gave up just 22 more at home. 

Houston Astros, 51-111: When you're looking for fun facts, the Astros are pretty target-rich. Worst record in the majors. Ended the season with a 15-game losing streak. New record for strikeouts in a season. Last in OPS and ERA. But if I had to pick one, it's this: The Astros were winning 56 games after seven innings. They wound up losing 17 of them. That's a .696 winning percentage, the worst in baseball. Just give them a league-average record holding leads after seven and they'd have won eight more games. Their bullpen was last in the league in ERA and last in strikeouts despite pitching the third-most innings.

On the Wild Cards

In the AL, Tampa Bay and Texas are tied, with Cleveland 0.5 back, Baltimore 2.5, New York 3, and Kansas City 3.5. The Rangers open a four-game series at Tampa Bay tonight. It's hard to see both of those teams holding on to the lead once the series is over, isn't it? Cleveland's got three against Kansas City starting tonight, the Orioles have three in Boston and the Yankees three in Toronto starting tomorrow. 

In the NL, the Nationals are 4.5 behind the Reds for the last wild card. That would seem to be a tough gap, but over the past 30 days, the Nationals are 20-8, the best record in the NL, while the Reds are 15-13. And the Reds do silly things like blow a 5-1 lead against the Brewers without bringing in their best reliever, Aroldis Chapman. Yes, I know, he pitched an inning and a third the night before, throwing 28 pitches, but that was also his first appearance in six days. The Reds are on the road this week, with three at New York and then three at Pittsburgh, while the Nats host the Braves for three and the Marlins for four. It's hard to see the Reds blowing a 4.5 game lead, but I'll bet you the Nationals make it interesting.