Adrian Beltre and Immortality

On Tuesday, Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre went 4-for-4 in an 8-2 loss to the Tigers. The first of those four hits, a single to center in the bottom of the second, was the 2,500th hit of Beltre's career. It made Beltre, who turned 35 on April 7, the 32nd player to collect 2,500 hits by age 35. Of the 32, Beltre is the only one to have played over half his games at third base.

Two questions regarding Beltre's legacy: Is he likely to reach 3,000 career hits, and might he get inducted into the Hall of Fame?

Every year, the Bill James Handbook calculates the percentage chance of players reaching various milestones using the player's accomplishments to date, age, and level of performance. This year's Handbook lists Beltre's chance of reaching 3,000 hits at 81%. If the season were to end today, Beltre would have to become the 89th hitter in history to get 490 hits at age 36 or later in order to reach 3,000. (He has 2,510 through June 28.) If we assume that he can get another 75 hits this year (which seems safe; he has 84 in the Rangers' 80 games thus far), he'll need 415. There have been 111 players, ranging from Bill Buckner (419) to Pete Rose (1,494), to have done that. That total includes 11 third basemen:

Player	H	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Tm
Lave Cross	848	1902	1907	36-41	747	2967	360	143	33	4	402	114	64	.286	.314	.360	.675	PHA-WSH
Wade Boggs	743	1994	1999	36-41	672	2407	363	130	13	31	268	334	226	.309	.389	.412	.802	NYY-TBD
Graig Nettles	637	1981	1988	36-43	933	2675	328	90	9	110	404	351	383	.238	.326	.402	.728	NYY-SDP-ATL-MON
Cal Ripken	635	1997	2001	36-40	620	2334	281	116	1	78	326	169	272	.272	.322	.423	.745	BAL
Chipper Jones	609	2008	2012	36-40	604	2086	323	124	4	82	324	360	328	.292	.393	.473	.867	ATL
Gary Gaetti	582	1995	2000	36-41	672	2262	292	121	7	103	362	182	392	.257	.319	.454	.772	KCR-STL-CHC-BOS
Jimmy Dykes	551	1933	1939	36-42	580	2023	227	88	17	22	307	272	144	.272	.365	.365	.730	CHW
Jimmy Austin	489	1916	1929	36-49	604	2010	265	73	32	3	124	257	193	.243	.333	.316	.649	SLB
Brooks Robinson	450	1973	1977	36-40	547	1849	168	69	5	26	199	167	158	.243	.306	.328	.635	BAL
Mike Schmidt	440	1986	1989	36-39	457	1612	256	85	3	90	322	242	223	.273	.368	.497	.865	PHI
Sparky Adams	429	1931	1934	36-39	406	1581	217	87	8	2	89	121	72	.271	.326	.340	.667	STL-CIN

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/29/2014.

The Hall of Fame outlook is even brighter. Despite the stinginess of Hall voters in recent years, 2,500 hits by age 35 has been a near-lock. Of the other 31 players to have reached the milestone, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Alex Rodriguez (still active), Pete Rose (banned from baseball), Derek Jeter (still active), and Vada Pinson (flamed out - hit .223/.248/.335 in 103 games at age 36, his last year in the majors). Takeaway: If Beltre can keep playing at a reasonably high level (he's currently better than that, ranking second in the American League with a .333 batting average) and, in the immortal words of Satchel Paige, go very light on the vices, he stands a good chance being inducted into Cooperstown.