Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

      St. Louis   89  54  ---
      Pittsburgh  86  45  2.5
      Chicago     82  60  6.5

All three teams are going to the postseason. According to FanGraphs, the odds of the Cardinals and Pirates reaching the postseason are 100%, and the Cubs are at 99.3%. (The National League is really boring this year; other than the Cards, Pirates, Cubs, Mets, and Dodgers, no team has even a 1% chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs.) But how they get there is still up in the air. By the end of play Thursday, the Cardinals, who open a three-game set against the Brewers tonight, could be in first or second. The Pirates, whose first of four games with the Cubs started shortly before I hit the "publish" key, could be in first, second, or tied for second with the Cubs. The Cubs could be in third or tied for second. The first place team will open a Divisional Series at home, in all likelihood. The second place team will host the third place team for a one-game wild-card play-in, then, after a day's rest, travel to a Divisional Series, most likely against the NL Central's first place team. Long and short of it, this could be a pretty important three weekdays in September for determining the postseason for the three NL Central teams.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-12 record, tying them with the Nationals for the fourth best record in the league after the Mets (20-7), Dodgers (17-9), and Pirates (18-10). They've scored 5.3 runs per game, fourth most in the league, one slot ahead of the Pirates at 4.7. They've allowed 4.8 runs per game, tying them with the Mets for the sixth most (or the ninth fewest); the Pirates, at 3.6 runs allowed per game, have given up the third fewest. 

What's Going Right? The team's tenth in batting average (.250) and ninth in on base percentage (.321) but they have the second highest slugging percentage in the league, .479, over the past 30 days. That's because they're second to the Mets in home runs and tied for second in triples. There's a lot of swing-and-miss in the Cubs lineup--they've struck out in 27% of their plate appearances over the past 30 days, easily the most in the league, and they have the lowest rate of contact on swings--but when they hit the ball, they hit it hard, with the third-highest rate of hard contact and the highest rate of fly balls becoming home runs. The starting pitchers' 3.89 ERA over the last 30 days is the fourth-best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and the second-lowest walk rate. However, as I'll discuss in the Who's Hot section, a lot of that has been one guy.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over. Cubs relievers have a 5.20 ERA over the past 30 days, the third highest in the league. Their strikeout and walk rates have been OK but they've allowed the third highest rate of home runs per nine innings in the league. There's been some bad luck mixed in--batting average on balls in play and baserunners stranded are driven to a degree by good fortune, and the Cubs bullpen's allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the lowest strand rate over the past 30 days--but the bullpen's clearly not as good as the starting rotation.

Who's Hot? Jake Arrieta, who'll start Wednesday night's game, has been pretty unhittable over the last 30 days: 0.24 ERA, 23 baserunners and 41 strikeouts over 37 innings. The reset of the rotation...not so much. Tuesday afternoon's starter, Jason Hammel, has been legitimately bad (6.04 ERA over the past 30 days, with six homers, nine walks, and 30 hits over 25.1 innings), and the other two starters, Jon Lester (Tuesday night) and Kyle Hendricks (Thursday afternoon) have ERAs north of 4.50. So the success of Cubs starters has been largely the work of Arrieta, though Hendricks and Lester have both been somewhat unlucky. Closer Hector Rondon has a 2.00 ERA, seven saves, and eleven strikeouts in nine innings over the past 30 days.

Kris Bryant, mired in a slump the last time the Pirates faced the Cubs, has been on fire, with a .324 batting average, .373 on base percentage, and .627 slugging percentage, with eight homers and 26 RBI over the past 30 days. Center fielder Dexter Fowler leads the club with a .393 on base percentage from the leadoff spot, along with a .546 slugging percentage. Corner outfielder Chris Coghlan has a .299/.386/.584 slash line, and Starlin Castro, who was the team's shortstop at the start of the year but now has been limited to part-time duty at second, is at .359/.369/.594.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been feast-or-famine over the past 30 days. Left fielder Kyle Schwarber has eight homers but a .174 batting average and .288 on base percentage over the past 30 days. First baseman Anthony Rizzo has six homers, a .198 batting average, and a .302 on base percentage. Shortstop Addison Russell also has six homers, but a .241 batting average and .281 on base percentage. So they've made outs when you can keep them in the park. As for the bullpen, As for the bullpen, no reliever with ten or more innings pitched has an ERA below 4.35. 

What's the Outlook? This should be a fun four games. Obviously, the goal here is to keep the Cubs hitters from leaving the yard, and getting to Chicago's bullpen. It's be great to make up more ground on the Cardinals, mired in a 3-9 slump, but splitting the four games may be all the Pirates can get.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

The Cubs haven't played the Pirates since the two teams met over ten dates in April and May, with the Cubs taking four. The last time they met was on May 17, at which time the Cubs were in second in the National League Central, while the Pirates were 18-20, tied with the Reds for third. Since that date, the Pirates have the best record in baseball, 43-23, while the Cubs are tied for sixth best, 36-31. So they've both played well, though the Pirates have played better. Entering play today, the Pirates are in line to be the National League's first wild card team. The Cubs, who've won five straight, are tied with the San Francisco Giants for the No. 2 wild card, four behind the Pirates. It's not exactly the pennant drive, but the three games starting tonight at PNC Park could have post-season consequences.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, the Cubs have a 15-11 record, which is an unimpressive-sounding seventh best in the National League, but they're only percentage points behind the 14-10 Mets and Phillies (tied for fifth), a game behind the 16-10 Cardinals (fourth) and 15-9 Dodgers (third), and a game and a half behind the 16-9 Pirates (second) and 15-8 Giants (first). They've compiled a decent number of wins, though the presence of the Cardinals and Pirates ahead of them illustrates how tough the National League Central is this year. They've scored 3.7 runs per game over the period, the fifth fewest in the league, while giving up 3.9 runs per game, the sixth most. Does that sound lucky, a winning record despite giving up more than they've scored? Well, it is, but they're not alone: The Pirates have scored 4.3 and given up 4.4 over the past 30 days. So neither team has played as well as its record would indicate. The Cubs made a couple minor deals at the trade deadline, adding starter Dan Haren (whom the Pirates will face in his Cubs debut Wednesday) and reliever Tommy Hunter.

What's Going Right? The starting pitchers have a 2.99 ERA over the last 30 days, fourth best in the league, with the highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest walk rate. They've induced the highest rate of ground balls and the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league.

What's Going Wrong? When the Cubs' strong starters leave the game, the bullpen takes over, and it's struggled over the last 30 days. Its 4.64 ERA is third highest in the league, and they've blown five saves (second most). In fairness, they've probably been a little unlucky as well, as a league-leading 32% of baserunners have scored and they've allowed a batting average on balls in play of .325, well above the league average of .299. Neither of those figures are likely to persist.

The offense has been bad. They've hit .222 with a .342 slugging percentage over the last 30 days, both worst in the league, and their .303 on base percentage is fifth worst. They've struck out in 24% of their plate appearances, third most in the league, making contact on just 75% of their swings, the lowest rate in the league.

Who's Hot? Every Cubs starting pitcher has an ERA of 3.00 or lower over the past 30 days except Jason Hammel (whom the Pirates won't face) and Dallas Beeler (whom Haren's replacing). The Pirates will go against the team's two best starters tonight and tomorrow, Jon Lester (1.98 ERA, 43 strikeouts and four walks over his last 36.1 innings) and Jake Arrieta (2.08 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 34.2 innings). First baseman Anthony Rizzo leads the Cubs in home runs with five and RBI with 16 over the past 30 days, though his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage are all below his full-year averages. Center fielder Dexter Fowler has walked in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, helping him compile an outstanding .416 on base percentage. Rookie catcher-left fielder Kyle Schwarber, recalled from the minors on July 17, has been the team's most consistent hitter, with a .320/.433/.540 slash line in 17 games.

Who's Not? Several Cubs hitters have been run-of-the-mill mediocre, but two have been notably bad. Shortstop Starlin Castro is batting .144/.179/.167 over the last 30 days, with two extra-base hits, two unintentional walks, and 21 strikeouts over 24 games. Third baseman/All-Star/Rookie of the Year candidate Kris Bryant is batting .165 with a .284 on base percentage and has struck out in nearly of third of his plate appearances over the past 30 days. The Cubs have operated sort of a bullpen-by-committee this year, but over the past 30 days, Hector Rondon (1.26 ERA, four saves, five holds, 15 strikeouts and two unintentional walks over 14.1 innings) has clearly outshone Jason Motte (three saves, one blown save, two holds, 5.23 ERA) and Rafael Soriano (a free agent signed by the Cubs in June, the Nationals' closer much of last year, 6.35 ERA in six games). 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates have a better record than the Cubs this year, have scored more runs, and given up fewer. However, they face two of the best starting pitchers in the National League over the next two nights. Taking the series two games to one would be an accomplishment, but dropping two of three would be neither a big surprise nor a panic signal.

2014 Predictions: AL West

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East along with the American League Central and East. 

Oakland Athletics - 96-66 in 2013, 4.7 runs scored per game (4th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (9th in MLB): I always get the feeling that the A's are just a couple steps ahead of the posse. In the Moneyball era, they had a lot of guys who got on base a lot; now everyone's doing it. Last year they emphasized pitchers who give up fly balls and batters who hit them; probably the league catches up to them on that as well. They've won more games over the past two years than any team in the American League. I think it's going to be hard to keep that streak going. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 91-71.

Texas Rangers - 91-72, 4.5 runs scored per game (8th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (10th in MLB): The Rangers made a couple huge offseason deals, signing on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo to lead off and trading second baseman Ian Kinsler for lefty slugger Prince Fielder. The trade of Kinsler opens up second to Jurickson Profar, a highly-touted prospect who disappointed last year, compiling an OPS that was 24% below the league average (adjusting for his home park), but Profar turned 21 only last month (though he's out with a shoulder injury). The pitching staff is a worry, with last year's Cy Young runner-up followed by a bunch of guys with injury problems. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed,  89-73.

Los Angeles Angels - 78-84, 4.5 runs scored per game (7th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (24th in MLB): Albert Pujols is apparently recovered from his foot problems, Josh Hamilton was OK in the second half of last season, and they still have Mike Trout. Pitching was the problem last year, and they added youngster Tyler Skaggs and  lefty Hector Santiago in the trade for Mark Trumbo. When this team plopped down all that money on Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Hamilton, they thought they were buying pennants. They didn't, but I think they're getting closer. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 83-79.

Seattle Mariners - 71-91, 3.9 runs scored per game (22nd in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (26th in MLB): You might have heard that they signed former Yankees 2B Robinson Cano, one of the best players in baseball. Other than that, their deals were minor, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who finished third in the Cy Young voting, is out with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 76-86.

Houston Astros - 51-111, 3.8 runs scored per game (26th in MLB), 5.2 runs allowed per game (30th in MLB): It's tempting to look at last year's team and just say, "Well, they can't be much worse." I think they'll do better than that. They added CF Dexter Fowler via trade and starting pitchers Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams via free agency. The Astros also have a lot of strong prospects whom we'll likely see later in the season. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 56-106.

Rockies Fans, Meet Justin Morneau

The Colorado Rockies have signed 32 year old Justin Morneau to a $12.5 million two year contract. He will be the team's first baseman, replacing the retired Todd Helton, who played 108 games there in 2013. 

What's Good About Him? The narrative about Morneau is that the 2006 American League MVP was having another MVP-caliber year in 2010 when he suffered a concussion sliding into second base hasn't been the same since. Sadly, that's true. Finding positives in his game since 2011 is pretty hard. He was OK with the glove last year and he played 152 games, his most since 2008. He had a couple pretty good months (June and August) and batted .292 in the postseason for the Pirates.

Morneau bats left. With the lefty Helton retired and switch-hitter Dexter Fowler traded to the Astros, Morneau and Carlos Gonzalez are the only lefthanded bats in the Rockies' lineup (depending on who replaces Fowler). Morneau is a lot more effective against right-handed pitchers, of which the righty-leaning Rockies lineup is likely to see a lot. He batted .280 with a .352 on base percentage and .467 slugging percentage against right handed pitchers compared to .207/.247/.278 slash line against lefties. He got 15 of his 17 homers against righties as well.

What's Not So Good About Him? Through 2010, he had a .286 batting average, a .358 on base percentage, and a .511 slugging percentage. He hit home runs in 4.6% of his plate appearances, struck out 15.1% and walked 10.0%. Since the injury, he's batted .256/.319/.406. His home run rate's been 2.7%, strikeouts 17.2%, walks 7.9%. He's made less contact, putting 30% of strikes in play compared to 33% prior to the injury, with more swinging strikes and foul balls. His batted balls just aren't going as far: before the injury, 12% of his fly balls and line drives went over the fence and 12% were infield outs; since the injury, only 7% have left the park and 14% have stayed in the infield. He's done worse against fastballs (.524 slugging percentage before the injury, .344 after) and breaking balls (.448 slugging against sliders before the injury, .370 after; .622 slugging against curves before the injury, .390 after). I'm going to stop, this is depressing. 

So What Should Rockies Fans Expect? First base is a hitter's position. The average major league first baseman batted .261 with a .337 on base percentage and .436 slugging percentage last year, .262/.336/.442 in 2012 and .271/.345/.452 in 2011. Since his injury, Morneau's .267 batting average in 2012 represents the only time he's been above-average in any of the three key batting statistics. He'll get a lift from Coors, as most hitters do, but adjusted for the park, the Rockies are most likely getting below-average production from first base for the next couple years, albeit a pickup from Helton's .249/.314/.423 last year.