Next Up: The Colorado Rockies

Having taken two out of three from the Dodgers, the best team in the National League West, the Pirates will attempt to defend their two-game lead over the Cubs for the first wild card position against the worst team in the National League West, the Rockies.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Rockies are 14-15, placing them in eighth place, exactly in the middle, in the 15-team National League. They've scored 4.4 runs per game during that span, seventh in the league, while giving up 4.5, the eighth most (and eighth fewest). The Rockies aren't a great club--they're tied with the Brewers for the third worst record in baseball--but it's worth noting that in their division, the National League West, only the Dodgers have a better record over the past 30 days.

What's Going Right? Rockies relievers have been good over the past 30 days. Their 3.35 ERA is fifth best in the league, tied for second best adjusted for Coors Field. They've struck out batters at a below-average rate and walked them at an above-average rate, but they've been the fourth best in the league at keeping fly balls in the park, quite a feat considering where they play their home games. At the plate, the Rockies are fourth in the league in homers (36) and tied for second in triples (9) over the past 30 days, and they're the league's most efficient base stealers, going 16-for-18.

What's Going Wrong? Rockies batters have the fourth lowest batting average in the league over the past 30 days at .247, and their .295 on base percentage is second worst. Their slugging percentage is better, .402, ranking ninth, thanks to those home runs and triples. Rockies batters have the second-lowest walk rate in the league over the past 30 days, explaining the low on base percentage. They're free swingers, the only National League team to have swung at over half of all pitches over the past 30 days That includes the highest percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone, helping explain why they're below average at making contact. When they do make contact, they've hit the fourth-lowest percentage of batted balls on the ground and the fourth-highest percentage of fly balls--the right approach for Coors Field--but their high proportion of soft contact has yielded the highest rate of infield fly balls in the league.

Rockies starters have a 5.27 ERA over the past 30 days, the fifth highest in the league. As always, playing their home games in the most extreme hitters' park in the game affects that figure. Adjusted for Coors Field, the starters' ERA improves from fifth worst to seventh worst.

Who's Hot? Acrobatic third baseman Nolan Arenado is getting love from Rockies fans as an MVP candidate (he doesn't have a chance), and over the past 30 days, he's batting .298 with a .320 on base percentage and a .579 slugging percentage (seventh in the league), with nine homers (third), 19 runs scored (tied for ninth), and 23 RBI (tied for fourth). Right fielder Carlos Gonzalez has hit eight homers but contributed little else, with a .222 batting average and .262 on base percentage. Former Pirate Justin Morneau, who returned at the beginning of the month after nearly a four month absence due to neck and concussion issues, has a .306/.390/.472 slash line in eleven games since his return.

The Rockies starter to watch is tonight's pitcher, Jonathan Gray, a highly-regarded rookie who's pitched better than his 4.19 ERA over the past 30 days would indicate: 21 strikeouts, six unintentional walks, and no homers over 19.1 innings. He'll be on a short leash, probably not exceeding five or six innings pitched. The Rockies' other best starters over the last 30 days are Jorge de la Rosa (3.00 ERA) and Chad Bettis (3.29 ERA). on Sunday. This being September, the Rockies have called up a lot of youngsters and have used 16 pitchers in relief over the past 30 days. The best has been closer John Axford, with seven saves, a 0.84 ERA, and 14 strikeouts over 10.2 innings pitched.

Who's Not? Rookie outfielder Kyle Parker is 5-for-47 over his last 20 games (that's a .106 batting average). Another rookie, first baseman Ben Paulsen, has a .239 batting average and .268 on base percentage over the last 30 days; he's been largely spelled by Morneau. Starters other than Gray, de la Rosa, and Bettis have combined for a 7.39 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The Pirates took two of three from Colorado when the teams met at the end of August. With the Cardinals (four games ahead of the Pirates) and the Cubs (two games behind) hosting three-game series against the Reds and Brewers, respectively, the Pirates will be hoping to take their four-game set in Denver. 

One of the risks of playing in the thin air in Colorado is the idea that it screws up pitchers' and hitters' mechanics such that they play poorly in the games immediately following a trip to Coors Field. Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs examined this earlier this year, and found little evidence to support it. The Pirates had better hope that's the case: After Thursday afternoon's game, they fly to Chicago for three games against the Cubs, then head home for three against the Cardinals. Those games will likely determine where they open their postseason play. The Pirates have the second best record in baseball this year. But since the Cardinals have the best, and the Cubs the third best, the Pirates appear likely to have to win the wild card play-in game, possibly on the road, in order to reach the Divisional Series.

Next Up: The Colorado Rockies

On Monday, I wrote, previewing the Pirates' next ten games:

With the Pirates playing ten games against three of the worst teams in the league at the same time the Cardinals play ten against teams with winning records (the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Nationals), there's an opportunity for the Pirates to pick up ground heading into a Labor Day weekend matchup in St. Louis.

Well, that plan's been only half successful. The Pirates did indeed take three of four from the Miami Marlins, but the seemingly unstoppable Cardinals went to Phoenix and took four straight from a Diamondbacks team that had been on an 18-9 run. The Pirates now host the Rockies, with the third worst record in baseball, for three games while the Cardinals face the Giants, who trail the Dodgers by 2.5 in the West and the Cubs by 5.5 for the second wild card.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the last 30 days, the Rockies are 8-19, tying them with the Braves for the worst record in the National League. Despite playing in the best hitters' park in the majors, they've scored only 4.1 runs per game over the last 30 days, the sixth lowest total in the league, while giving up 6.0 per game, easily the most. They're 9-19 since trading shortstop/franchise icon Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays on July 28.

What's Going Right? Rockies pitchers are never as bad as their raw numbers, as they have the handicap of playing half their games in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the majors. Adjusted for their home park, their starters' ERA is fifth worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the relievers' ERA is second worse. That's not good, of course, but it's better than their unadjusted ERA.

What's Going Wrong? One Rockies batters are in the middle of the National League pack in slugging percentage over the past 30 days, at .417, but they've been hurt by an inability to get on base. The team's .295 on base percentage is the worst in the league over the past 30 days, the only team below .300. They've walked the least frequently and struck out the second most frequently in the league, swinging at 34% of pitches outside the strike zone, the second most in the league. The starting pitchers' ERA over the past 30 days is 5.89. Only the Phillies have been worse. Sort of the mirror image of the hitters, Rockies starters have struck out batters at the third-lowest rate and walked them at the sixth-highest rate. The relievers have been worse, with a league-worst 6.24 ERA, the lowest strikeout rate in the league, and by far and away the highest walk rate. Rockies relievers have issued free passes to 15% of the batters they've faced over the last 30 days. The next worst  team, the Marlins, are below 10%. The Rockies bullpen has four saves and six blown saves in the past 30 days. 

Who's Hot? Right fielder Carlos Gonzalez has put on a slugging show of late, leading the Rockies with ten homers, 20 RBI, 18 runs scored, a .337 on base percentage, and a .630 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. The Pirates will face the Rockies' most dependable starter of late, Jorge de la Rosa, on Sunday. Over his past five starts, he has a 3.41 ERA. Highly-touted rookie Jonathan Gray has his fifth start tonight. In his first three starts--all no-decisions--he compiled a 2.40 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 15 innings, but he was lit up for seven runs in an inning and two thirds against the Mets last Friday.

Who's Not? The Rockies got shortstop Jose Reyes in the trade for Tulo, and he's struggled with a .258 batting average and .284 on base percentage since coming over. He's also been caught stealing in half of his eight attempts. The team's most successful base stealer is center fielder Charlie Blackmon, with eight steals over the past 30 days, though he's been successful in 62% of his attempts, negating his swipes. Slick-fielding third baseman Nolan Arenado, first baseman Ben Paulsen, and catcher Nick Hundley join Reyes among regulars with on base percentages below .300 over the past 30 days. Over the past 30 days, the team's six most frequently used relievers have combined for a 7.30 ERA and have walked 16% of the batters they've faced; the league average is a 3.91 ERA and an 8% walk rate.

What's the Outlook? Playing the Rockies at altitude in Coors Field is said to mess up visiting hitters' and pitchers' timing. Hosting Colorado at PNC Park entails no such risk. (The Pirates visit Denver in September.) Picking up ground on the division-leading Cardinals, whom the Pirates trail by 4.5 games, is a tall order, though, as long as the Redbirds keeping winning every damn game they play.

Trailing 30 - August 2

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraphs' Leaders application. Comment for the week: The cutoff here is close enough to predict Players and Pitchers of the Month. American League: Mike Trout and...oh, I don't know...Scott Kazmir? Easy picks in the National League: Carlos Gonzalez and Zack Greinke.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Kansas City     18- 9     1. San Francisco   15- 8

   New York        16- 8     2. Pittsburgh      15-10    

3. Chicago         16-10     3. Los Angeles     14-10         

4. Los Angeles     14-10        New York        14-10   

5. Hou, Min        12-12        Philadelphia    14-10        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Tampa Bay        9-15     1. Cincinnati       8-17      

2. Oakland          9-14     2. Miami            8-16       

   Texas            9-14     3. Colorado        10-13      

4. Boston          10-14     4. Cincinnati      11-14
5. Det, Sea        11-15     5. Milwaukee       11-13

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Hosmer, KC       .390     1. Parra, Mil       .421  

2. Cabrera, Chi     .386     2. LeMahieu, Col    .418      

3. Kinsler, Det     .383     3. Posey, SF        .413           

4. Bogaerts, Bos    .380     4. Votto, Cin       .395          

5. Cain, KC         .365     5. Gonzalez, Col    .386       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Vogt, Oak        .171     1. Castro, Chi      .136          

2. LaRoche, Chi     .172     2. Ahmed, Ari       .157       

3. Hunter, Min      .179     3. Bryant, Chi      .163
4. Perez, KC        .188     4. Pederson, LA     .170           

5. Butler, Oak      .189     5. Peterson, Atl    .180      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Trout, LA        .441     1. Votto, Cin       .540           

2. Sano, Min        .435     2. LeMahieu, Col    .480          

3. Cain, KC         .432     3. Parra, Mil       .477         

4. Hosmer, Oak      .429     4. Harper, Was      .448          

5. Teixeira, NY     .426        Kang, Pit        .448      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Trout, LA        .800     1. Gonzalez, Col    .855        

2. Teixeira, NY     .733     2. Parra, Mil       .724     

3. Cain, KC         .671     3. Kang, Pit        .663       

4. Cabrera, Chi     .653     4. Bruce, Cin       .652       

5. Rodriguez, NY    .646     5. Votto, Cin       .651        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Trout, LA          11     1. Gonzalez, Col      11
2. Rodriguez, NY       9     2. Duda, NY           10        

   Teixeira, NY        9     3. Gonzalez, LA        8
4. Cespedes, Det       8     4. McCutchen, Pit      6
   Cruz, Sea           8     5. 11 with             5

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Cain, KC           23     1. Gonzalez, Col      21        

2. Eaton, Chi         22     2. Parra, Mil         20     

3. JD Martinez, Det   20     3. LeMahieu, Col      19
   Seager, Sea        20     4. 3 with             18
5. 2 with             19        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Cabrera, Chi       24     1. Gonzalez, Col      25        

2. Donaldson, Tor     23     2. Howard, Phi        23      

   Morales, KC        23     3. Bruce, Cin         20       

   Trout, LA          23     4. McCutchen, Pit     19
5. Davis, Bal         22     5. Pence, SF          18   
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Dyson, KC           8     1. Hamilton, Cin      11
2. Reyes, Tor          6     2. Gordon, Mia         8     

3. 5 with              5     3. Heyward, SL         7   

                                Pollock, Ari        7
                             5. 4 with              6
                                                     
   Saves                        Saves

1. Holland, KC         7     1. Kimbrel, SD        11

2. 5 with              6     2. Melancon, Pit       8

                                Rosenthal, SL       8
                             4. Casilla, SF         7
                                Familia, NY         7

   ERA                          ERA

1. Kazmir, Oak-Hou  0.35     1. Kershaw, LA      0.22

2. Tillman, Bal     1.31     2. Greinke, LA      0.95

3. Heaney, LA       2.20     3. Leake, Cin       1.25

4. Price, Det       2.25     4. Lackey, SL       1.26

5. Samardzija, Chi  2.27     5. deGrom, NY       1.30

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Hutchison, Tor   7.46     1. Burnett, Pit     6.60

2. Gallardo, Tex    5.96     2. Wisler, Atl      5.52

3. Hutchison, Tor   5.68     3. de la Rosa, Col  5.40

4. Lewis, Tex       5.63     4. Rusin, Col       5.25

5. Bauer, Cle       5.46     5. Morton, Pit      5.04

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Kazmir, Oak-Hou  0.73     1. Greinke, LA      0.58

2. Samardzija, Chi  0.81     2. Kershaw, LA      0.59
3. Salazer, Cle     0.88     3. deGrom, NY       0.61

4. Tillman, Bal     0.90     4. Lester, Chi      0.74
5. Gray, Oak        0.92     5. Leake, Cin       0.83

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Archer, TB         40     1. Kershaw, LA        52     

2. Keuchel, Hou       38     2. Lester, Chi        43

   Price, Det         38     3. Lynn, SL           40

4. Sale, Chi          36     4. Syndegaard, NY     38

5. Salazar, Cle       35     5. Arrieta, Chi       37

2014 Predictions: NL West

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL Central is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70 in 2013, 4.0 runs scored per game (15th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (3rd in MLB): They're returning pretty much the same lineup as last year, with Cuban import Alex Guerrero taking over at second at some point and Dan Haren added to the rotation. This could be a really strong team if Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp can stay healthy and Juan Uribe and Yasiel Puig can be as good as last year. Do you think that's possible? I don't. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 94-68.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 81-81, 4.2 runs scored per game (14th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (21st in MLB): Can they keep their streak of finishing with an exactly .500 record, where they finished in 2012 and 2013 intact? I don't think so. They were lucky last year (as I pointed out here, their 34-21 record in one-run games was the best in the league last year, and that figure tends to drift toward .500). They're moving their best defensive outfielder, Gerardo Parra, to the bench in order to get Mark Trumbo's bat in the lineup. And their big free agent pickup, Bronson Arroyo, has a bulging disk. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  78-84.

San Diego Padres - 76-86, 3.8 runs scored per game (23rd in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (20th in MLB): I don't have a great feeling. 1B Yonder Alonso has hit 11 HR per 600 plate appearances in his career. LF Carlos Quentin and SP Josh Johnson are trips to the disabled list waiting to happen. Here are 3B Chase Headley's home run totals the past five years: 12, 11, 4, 31, 13. Can you spot the fluke?  At least they presumably won't lose their shortstop, Everth Cabrera, to the Biogenesis scandal again this year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 77-85.

San Francisco Giants - 76-86, 3.9 runs scored per game (21st in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (19th in MLB): The Padres and Giants both play in pitchers' parks, so their below-average rankings in runs allowed says a lot about their key problem, pitching. The Giants added Tim Hudson, who's 38 and coming off a gruesome ankle injury, but he's been healhty in spring training. The rest of the team's unchanged other than the addition of Michael Morse in left. Morse was terrible last year (.215/.270/.381 slash line) and his best position is probably DH but he spent most of the season in Seattle, where everybody's bat seems to turn to mush, so he's a bounceback candidate. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 80-82.

Colorado Rockies - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (28th in MLB): The team's offense will depend in large part on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, clearly the two best players on the team, staying healthy, and 35-year-old Michael Cuddyer, the 2013 NL batting champ who had the best year of his career at the plate (yes, even taking Coors Field into account), not getting old. Brett Anderson, acquired via trade from Oakland, would seem to be a good candidate for success at Coors, as he throws a lot of sliders (a good Coors pitch) and generates tons of grounders, but he's in his sixth year and has topped 100 innings in a season only twice. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 77-85.

What Happens When a Pitch is Thrown, Part 4 - Hey Batter Batter

We've established that for pitchers, throwing strikes is good, but getting strikes, from a combination of pitching in the strike zone and inducing swings outside the zone, is better. So let's find out whether the opposite is true for hitters: Do the best hitters avoid strikes, especially outside the strike zone?

When we looked at pitchers, we evaluated them based on ERA, WHIP (baserunners per inning), and percentage of batters getting strikeouts, walks, and home runs. For batters, let's keep the last three, but instead of the pitcher-oriented ERA and WHIP we'll use batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Before I start, let me explain one tweak I did to the data: For pitchers, I included every pitch thrown in the majors last year. For batters, I'm going to exclude plate appearances by pitchers. I'm doing this for two reasons. First, pitchers are remarkably terrible hitters. They batted .132 with a .164 on base percentage and .169 slugging percentage last year. No position players come close to those numbers. Second, they screw up my analysis of balls and strikes. In looking at the numbers, I discovered there are two strategies when a pitcher's at the plate:

1. Throw everything in the strike zone, then laugh derisively as they helplessly flail away.
2. Throw everything outside the strike zone, then laugh derisively as they helplessly flail away.

That means that pitchers' at bats make batters who get a lot of pitches in the strike zone, and those who swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone, appear worse than they otherwise would be. So I'm excluding them. In terms of numbers, that means I'm ignoring 19,171 of the 709,916 pitches that were thrown last year. Given that that's only 2.7% of the total, I don't think we're missing much.

How are strikes and batting performance related? We'll start by looking at all strikes: pitches in the strike zone and pitches outside the strike zone at which the batter swings. We're checking to see whether batters with a lot of strikes do poorly. I ranked all batters by percentage of pitches to them that were strikes, and divided into ten groups. Group 1 got the fewest strikes, Group 2 the second fewest, Group 3 the third fewest...you get it. Group 10 had the highest percentage of strikes. Here's how they did:
     Group   BA   OBP   SLG    K%    BB%   HR%
       1   .254  .361  .433  21.1%  13.6%  3.4%
       2   .266  .353  .438  19.6%  11.1%  3.2%
       3   .256  .332  .404  19.3%   9.5%  2.5%
       4   .259  .332  .421  20.6%   9.3%  3.0%
       5   .267  .332  .431  19.2%   8.4%  3.0%
       6   .260  .319  .399  18.8%   7.6%  2.4%
       7   .255  .309  .381  17.8%   6.8%  1.9%
       8   .249  .301  .382  18.5%   6.3%  2.4%
       9   .252  .298  .383  19.5%   5.4%  2.2%
      10   .252  .288  .371  19.2%   4.0%  1.9%

Three reactions to this list. First, if you ignore batting average (which you should, since on base percentage and slugging percentage, as I showed, are better tied to run production), the relationship still holds: the more strikes a batter gets as a percentage of pitches, the worse the batter performs. It's not a flawless relationship, but it's good enough. Second, the batters who get the fewest strikes have the best home run percentages. Remember how that's not true for pitchers. But you can imagine a patient hitter like Joey Votto or Mike Trout or David Ortiz (they're all in Group 1) picking through pitches, waiting for one he can drive. Third, and this is counter-intuitive, the batters who get the lowest percentage of strikes nonetheless manage to strike out more often than anyone else. More on that in a bit.


How are pitches in the strike zone and batting performance related? Remember that pitchers who got more pitches in the strike zone did better than pitchers who didn't. The opposite for batting should be that batters who get the fewest pitches in the strike zone should do better than batters who don't. Here are the numbers:
     Group   BA   OBP   SLG    K%    BB%   HR%
       1   .258  .332  .438  21.6%   9.2%  3.5%
       2   .260  .328  .437  20.3%   8.5%  3.6%
       3   .257  .327  .408  18.6%   8.8%  2.7%
       4   .263  .333  .426  19.8%   9.1%  3.0%
       5   .255  .326  .399  19.9%   8.7%  2.5%
       6   .258  .320  .393  19.6%   7.6%  2.3%
       7   .267  .330  .415  18.9%   8.0%  2.5%
       8   .249  .308  .387  19.5%   7.3%  2.4%
       9   .255  .314  .370  17.8%   7.0%  1.7%
      10   .247  .301  .358  17.5%   6.5%  1.7%

Yes, the relationship holds, though it's not super strong. But hang on, think about it...this is kind of a trick question. Throwing balls into the strike zone is skill. Some pitchers possess it in greater quantities than others. But a batter getting pitches in the strike zone...not a skill. They're just standing there. Unless they get into an extreme Rickey Henderson-style crouch or something, there's nothing a batter can do to influence how many pitches go into the strike zone. Except, of course, by being good. Pitchers are going to pitch a lot more carefully to a slugger than a utility infielder. As a result, we should expect the very best hitters to get the fewest pitches in the strike zone. The table above illustrates that that's how it works. Groups 1 and 2 include guys like Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt. Group 10 has Clint Barmes and Pete Kozma. 

How are swings at pitches outside the strike zone and batting performance related? Strikes are the sum of pitches in the strike zone and pitches outside the strike zone at which the batter swings. For batters, getting pitches in the strike zone isn't a skill, but not swinging at pitches outside the zone is. Do batters who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone do better than those who do? As usual, Group 1 represents the 10% of players who swing the least frequently at pitches outside the strike zone, and Group 10 represents the 10% who swing the most:

     Group   BA   OBP   SLG    K%    BB%   HR%
       1   .249  .342  .391  20.0%  11.6%  2.4%
       2   .262  .346  .436  19.1%  10.7%  2.7%
       3   .256  .331  .399  18.4%   9.5%  2.4%
       4   .256  .324  .396  19.3%   8.5%  2.3%
       5   .254  .322  .397  19.7%   8.4%  2.5%
       6   .256  .320  .412  19.1%   8.0%  3.0%
       7   .260  .314  .392  17.8%   6.8%  2.3%
       8   .264  .323  .426  20.4%   7.3%  3.0%
       9   .255  .301  .395  19.4%   5.6%  2.5%
      10   .257  .298  .406  20.3%   4.8%  2.8%

Certainly, the batters who swing don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone have a better on base percentage, because they walk more. But they don't appear to strike out less, hit with more power, or hit more homers.

So we've got a paradox: Good pitchers get batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, but swinging at pitches outside the strike zone doesn't appear to hurt batters other than to limit their walks. Why is that?

I think the answer is that good hitters have a sweet spot, and if the sweet spot is outside the strike zone, so be it. Group 1 here--batters who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone--include bat-control guys who don't have a lot of power, like Marco Scutaro and Nate McLouth. Group 10 has several hitters who hit the ball hard but swing at most anything, like Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones. And All-Stars like Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez, and Freddie Freeman swing at an above-average number of pitches outside the strike zone as well. 

So let's reiterate the paradoxical conclusion: Good pitchers get batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, but swinging at pitches outside the strike zone doesn't appear to hurt batters other than to limit their walks. Seems to me that if you don't like watching strikeouts, there's nothing to suggest things are going to get much better.

Rockies Fans, Meet Justin Morneau

The Colorado Rockies have signed 32 year old Justin Morneau to a $12.5 million two year contract. He will be the team's first baseman, replacing the retired Todd Helton, who played 108 games there in 2013. 

What's Good About Him? The narrative about Morneau is that the 2006 American League MVP was having another MVP-caliber year in 2010 when he suffered a concussion sliding into second base hasn't been the same since. Sadly, that's true. Finding positives in his game since 2011 is pretty hard. He was OK with the glove last year and he played 152 games, his most since 2008. He had a couple pretty good months (June and August) and batted .292 in the postseason for the Pirates.

Morneau bats left. With the lefty Helton retired and switch-hitter Dexter Fowler traded to the Astros, Morneau and Carlos Gonzalez are the only lefthanded bats in the Rockies' lineup (depending on who replaces Fowler). Morneau is a lot more effective against right-handed pitchers, of which the righty-leaning Rockies lineup is likely to see a lot. He batted .280 with a .352 on base percentage and .467 slugging percentage against right handed pitchers compared to .207/.247/.278 slash line against lefties. He got 15 of his 17 homers against righties as well.

What's Not So Good About Him? Through 2010, he had a .286 batting average, a .358 on base percentage, and a .511 slugging percentage. He hit home runs in 4.6% of his plate appearances, struck out 15.1% and walked 10.0%. Since the injury, he's batted .256/.319/.406. His home run rate's been 2.7%, strikeouts 17.2%, walks 7.9%. He's made less contact, putting 30% of strikes in play compared to 33% prior to the injury, with more swinging strikes and foul balls. His batted balls just aren't going as far: before the injury, 12% of his fly balls and line drives went over the fence and 12% were infield outs; since the injury, only 7% have left the park and 14% have stayed in the infield. He's done worse against fastballs (.524 slugging percentage before the injury, .344 after) and breaking balls (.448 slugging against sliders before the injury, .370 after; .622 slugging against curves before the injury, .390 after). I'm going to stop, this is depressing. 

So What Should Rockies Fans Expect? First base is a hitter's position. The average major league first baseman batted .261 with a .337 on base percentage and .436 slugging percentage last year, .262/.336/.442 in 2012 and .271/.345/.452 in 2011. Since his injury, Morneau's .267 batting average in 2012 represents the only time he's been above-average in any of the three key batting statistics. He'll get a lift from Coors, as most hitters do, but adjusted for the park, the Rockies are most likely getting below-average production from first base for the next couple years, albeit a pickup from Helton's .249/.314/.423 last year.