Next Up: The Suddenly Competitive Cincinnati Reds

Not for anything good, mind you. Here are the teams with the eight worst records in the majors as of the All-Star break: 
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 29 62 .319  --
Milwaukee    38 52 .422  9.5
Miami        38 51 .427 10
Colorado     39 49 .443 11.5
Oakland      41 50 .451 12
Cincinnati   39 47 .453 12.5

San Diego    41 49 .456 12.5
Seattle      41 48 .461 13

Here's where it was at the start of September:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 52 80 .394  --
Miami        53 79 .402  1
Colorado     53 76 .411  2.5
Atlanta      54 77 .412  2.5
Cincinnati   54 76 .415  3
Milwaukee    55 75 .423  4

Oakland      58 74 .439  6
Seattle      61 71 .462  9

And today:
Team          W  L Pct.  GB
Philadelphia 62 97 .390  --
Cincinnati   63 96 .396  1
Atlanta      64 95 .403  2
Colorado     66 93 .415  4
Oakland      66 93 .415  4
Milwaukee    68 91 .428  6

Miami        69 90 .434  7
Detroit      73 85 .462 11.5

Why's this relevant? Well, the worst record earns you the No. 1 pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's valuable. First picks, historically, do considerably better than other picks, even No. 2. So the difference between being the worst and the second-worst is significant. Cincinnati's been making an impressive drive for the that top draft choice! (And what in the world have the Marlins been thinking?)


How Are They Doing Lately? When a team moves up in the ranks of the worst teams in baseball, it's not because they're doing well. The Reds have lost 12 in a row going into the season-ending weekend series at PNC Park. The 1993 Reds also lost 12 straight, and the team could tie the 1930 and 1945 Reds with 13 straight losses tonight. (The all-time franchise record of 19 straight losses, set in 1914, is out of reach.) Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati has the worst record in the league over the last 30 days, 9-19. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, .001 runs per game more than the fourth-worst Cardinals, while giving up 5.6 runs per game, easily the most in the league, over a half a run more than the next-worst Braves.

What's Going Right? I've mentioned this a number of times, but two pitching figures that can reflect luck are batting average on balls in play and percentage of baserunners stranded. Most players and teams tend toward the league averages (.299 batting average on balls in play and 73% strand rate in the National League over the past 30 days). The Reds have allowed the highest batting average on balls in play and the stranded the lowest percentage of baserunners over the past 30 days, indicating they've probably been a little unlucky. 

What's Going Wrong? Over the past 30 days, the Reds are eleventh in the league in batting (.248), 13th in on base percentage (.308), and 13th in slugging (.388). They've struck out the fourth most frequently and walked the fourth most infrequently. They've had the second lowest rate of hard contact in the league. And the pitching has completely melted down; the bullpen ERA of 4.70 is the third worst in the league over the past 30 days, and the starters' 5.82 ERA is the second worst. 

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is closing out a sensational season, batting .329 with a .487 on base percentage and .482 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. He's got a .547 on base percentage in the second half of the season. The only players who've bested that over half a season are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds. Second baseman Brandon Phillips (.317/.336/.433 slash line) is also winding up a strong second half; his .759 OPS trails only the Mets' Daniel Murphy (.824) and the Pirates' Neil Walker (.762) among regular second basemen in the National League since the All-Star break. Closer Aroldis Chapman, in limited save opportunities, has a 0.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts and just four hits allowed in 9.2 innings, covering the last 30 days.

Who's Not? No Reds starter has an ERA lower than 4.73 over the past 30 days, including the weekend's starters, Keyvius Sampson (6.52), Brandon Finnegan (6.00), and Josh Smith (7.07). The weakest bats over the past 30 days have been those of left/center fielder Jason Bourgeois (.237/.297/.335), utility man Ivan DeJesus (.222/.246/.370) and catcher Tucker Barnhart (.179/.238/.196).

What's the Outlook? The Pirates can't completely coast. Their magic number over the Cubs for home field in Wednesday's wild card play-in game is two, meaning they need a combination of two victories over the Reds and/or Brewers victories over the Cubs over the weekend to put the game in PNC Park. But we should expect to see some position players get time off. As for the Reds, they have to hope the Phillies can extend their four-game winning streak at home against the Marlins, opening the door for Cincinnati to nab the top draft pick next summer.

Get It In Gear, McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen's batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, 2012-2015:

Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	157	593	107	194	29	6	31	96	20	12	70	132	.327	.400	.553
2013	157	583	97	185	38	5	21	84	27	10	78	101	.317	.404	.508
2014	146	548	89	172	38	6	25	83	18	3	84	115	.314	.410	.542
2015	151	544	88	159	36	3	22	95	10	5	95	126	.292	.403	.491

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 9/28/2015.

He's batted .300 or better, with an on base percentage of .400 or better, and a slugging percentage of .500 or better, for three straight seasons. That puts him in pretty select company. Here are the members of the .300/.400/.500 club in each of the past four seasons:

• 2012: McCutchen, Prince Fielder (.313/.412/.528), Buster Posey (.336/.408/.549)
• 2013: McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera (.348/.442/.636), Paul Goldschmidt (.302/.401/.551), Mike Trout (.323/.432/.557)
• 2014: McCutchen, Victor Martinez (.335/.409/565)
• 2015 (so far): Goldschmidt (.316/.431/.558), Bryce Harper (.336/.467/.658), Joey Votto (.318/.464/.556)

McCutchen is the only player to have finished more than one season above .300/.400./.500, though Goldschmidt is a lock to do it this year. If McCutchen can do it again this year, he'll join very select company:

Four or More Straight Years: .300/.400/.500 BA/OBP/SLG

Every player with an asterisk after his name is in the Hall of Fame. .300/.400/.500, four years in a row, that's really something!

If McCutchen plays each of the the Pirates' remaining six games, he'll probably get something like 26 plate appearances. He'll probably walk at least three times. That leaves 23 at bats, which will give him 567 for the season. To bat .300, he needs 170 hits. To slug .500, he needs 284 total bases. That means that in his final 23 at bats, he needs 11 hits and 17 total bases. Nine singles and a couple homers would do it. Going 11-for-23, that's not easy. But he needs to start now!

 

Next Up: The 1927 New York Yankees

OK, not really. But the 2015 Cincinnati Reds have played the Pirates as if they were the 1927 Yankees. They're 9-4 against the Pirates, outscoring them 64-45. Against the Reds this year, the Pirates:

• Were swept in Cincinnati in the season's first three games.
• Dropped two of three at home in May.
• Did it again in June. 
• Split four games in Cincinnati a little over a month ago.

As I pointed out last week, among National League Central teams, the Pirates have had the most success against the Cardinals, who have the best record in baseball. They're now 8-8 against the Redbirds. They've had the most problems with the Reds, who currently have the fourth-worst record in the majors. In fact, if you take away the Reds' games with the Pirates, Cincinnati's record would drop to 47-75, a .385 winning percentage that would be the worst to date.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 8-20 over the past 30 days, a record that would be the worst in the National League were it not for the almost unfathomably bad Atlanta Braves, who are 4-23. The Reds haven't really played as badly as their record would suggest, though. They've scored 4.5 runs per game, eighth in the league, and given up 5.0 per game, the fourth most. That's not a great record, but it's more indicative of a 12-16 team than one that's 8-20.

What's Going Right? The Reds' bullpen has a 3.23 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth best in the National League, though with the second lowest strikeout rate and sixth highest walk rate in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's compiled that spiffy ERA despite pitching 103 innings over the past 30 days, the second highest total in the National League. That's a reflection of how bad the Reds' all-rookie starting pitching has been: 6.01 ERA, second-lowest rate of ground balls induced, highest rate of fly balls going over the fence. The offense has been nothing special: twelfth in batting average and on base percentage, eleventh in slugging percentage.

Who's Hot? Reds fans haven't had a lot to cheer for, but first baseman Joey Votto's been one of them. He's having a historically great second half, and over the past 30 days, he's tied for second in the league in batting average (.356), is second in slugging percentage (.700), and leads the league in on base percentage (.536). The team's also gotten good offensive performances from second baseman Brandon Phillips (.349/.395/.500 slash line) and shortstop Eugenio Suarez (.274/.325/.519). Raisel Iglesias, Tuesday night's starter, has been one of the league's best pitchers over the past 30 days: 2.38 ERA, 44 strikeouts and just 26 hits and walks over 34 innings. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual self: five saves, 16 strikeouts over his last 9.2 innings, but setup man J.J. Hoover, despite a 3.09 ERA and five holds, has played with fire, with eight unintentional walks and three homers in 11.2 innings.

Who's Not? Right fielder Jay Bruce has been the anti-Votto: .202/.242/.399 since the All-Star break, .168/.204/.318 over the past 30 days. With center fielder Billy Hamilton disabled and former left fielder Marlon Byrd traded, the Reds have struggled to get production from their outfield. Outside of Iglesias, the Reds' other rookie starters have combined for a 7.11 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The series with the Reds gives the Pirates a chance to pick up ground on their two National League Central foes, the Cardinals and Cubs, who'll battle each other over three games at Wrigley Field. But for that to happen, the Pirates will have to figure out how to beat one of the worst teams in baseball. They haven't been able to so far this year.

Next Up: The Cincinnati Reds

No team's given the Pirates more trouble this year than the Reds. The Reds are 44-54, in fourth place in the National League Central, but they've racked up a 7-2 record to date against the Bucs. The Pirates were 1-5 in their first six games after the All-Star break and have gone 5-1 in the six games since. They will try to push their overall post-break record above .500 over four games in Cincinnati starting tonight.

How Are They Doing Lately? They've thrown in the towel on 2015, trading their ace starter and pending free agent Johnny Cueto to Kansas City. By the time Sunday's game rolls around, the Reds' scheduled starting pitcher, Mike Leake, could be gone as well. Right fielder Jay Bruce has been discussed as a potential trade chip too. The Reds haven't played well, with ten wins over the last 30 days, tied with the Braves and Rockies for the fewest in the league, though the Braves have one more loss (15) than the Reds (14). They've scored 3.5 runs per game, tied for the sixth fewest in the league, while allowing 5.00, the second most. As such, they've been a little lucky to have gone 10-14; a team with that sort of run differential is more likely to go 8-16 or so.

What's Going Right? The offense has been...well, not particularly good, but not really bad, either. Over the last 30 days, they're eighth in batting average and slugging percentage and ninth in on base percentage in the 15-team National League. They've been the second toughest team in the league to strike out and they're sixth in home runs. While they've swung at an above-average percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, their low strikeout rate is illustrative of their ability to make contact, as they have the third-highest contact rate on swings in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers have a 4.19 ERA over the past 30 days, third worst in the league, as a way-too-high 28% of baserunners allowed have scored, also third worst. The relievers have been worse, with a cover-your-eyes 5.88 ERA, second worst in the league, and they've earned it more than the starters, with the lowest strikeout rate AND the highest walk rate in the league over the past 30 days. 

Who's Hot? First baseman Joey Votto has been on fire: .386/.514/.639 slash line over the last 30 days, .523/.644/.886 since the All-Star break. I typed all of that correctly: He's gotten on base more than half the time over the last 30 days, and he's gotten hits in over half of his at bats since the break. Bruce has been sensational, too, .303/.347/.596 over the last 30 days. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his usual dominating self: six saves in ten games over the last 30 days, 18 strikeouts in 10.1 innings, batters whiffing on 39% of their swings against him. (League average is 23%.) Cueto had a 1.59 ERA over five starts in the past 30 days, but he's gone. Leake' ERA over the same period is better, 1.25, but he might get traded too. In fact, the only person in this paragraph who's not been mentioned in trade rumors is Votto, and that's because he's owed $192 million over the next eight years.

Who's Not? I mentioned Cueto, Leake, and Chapman above. Over the last 30 days, the rest of the Reds' pitching staff has a combined ERA of 6.80. On offense, second baseman Brandon Phillips is hitting .223/.270/.266 over the past 30 days, catcher Brayan Pena .185/.228/.185. They have a total of four extra-base hits (all doubles by Phillips) over 148 at-bats between them. All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier's hit .215/.248/.376 over the period, though the Pirates have been his personal slump-buster this season, as he's hitting .359/.419/.846 with five homers, ten RBI, and ten runs scored in nine games against Pittsburgh this year. 

What's the Outlook? Their 2-7 record against Cincinnati so far this year notwithstanding, the Pirates are facing a diminished Reds team from the one they faced earlier in the season, and they could become more diminished by tomorrow's trade deadline. The Pirates' rejuvinated offense (38 runs in the past six games) will face rookie David Holmberg (making his 2015 debut; he had a 4.50 ERA over four starts in 2014), rookie Michael Lorenzen (8.83 ERA over his last four starts), rookie Raisel Iglesias (6.19) and, if he's still with the club, Leake over the four game series. That makes for good prospects for improving on 2-7.

Bucs Clutch?

As I pointed out yesterday, the Pirates are last in the league in batting with the bases empty but fifth in batting with runners in scoring position. I wrote, "It seems as if they're always leaving runners on base--Saturday night's 18 runners left on base was pull-your-hair-out frustrating." But, as I noted further, "The problem isn't hitting with runners on base; it's getting runners on base in the first place." 

We've come to associate batting with runners in scoring position with being clutch. The most recent exemplar is the 2013 Cardinals, who set a record with their .330 batting average with runners in scoring position. (Predictably, that figure fell to .254 in 2014 and it was .264 in 2012, so that .330 was sandwiched between normal figures. Batting with runners in scoring position is generally not replicable, which means that it bounces around from year to year. That indicates there's a good measure of luck involved in this "clutch." measure.)

Now, it's not odd that the Pirates are batting better with runners in scoring position than with the bases empty. That's normal. There are several reasons for this:

• With runners on base, the pitcher's distracted.
• The pitcher has to pitch out of the stretch rather than with a full windup, with runners on base which for many pitchers decreases their effectiveness.
• Infielders can't position themselves optimally, since they may have to hold baserunners on base, creating more holes in the infield for batted balls to find.
• There is what statisticians call "selection bias." The best pitchers don't allow runners on base, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with the bases empty. Bad pitchers allow lots of baserunners, so they comprise a disproportionate share of the plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Last season, Clayton Kershaw had the best ERA in the National League, and Roberto Hernandez had the worst. They faced roughly the same number of batters. For Hernandez, 55% of opponents' plate appearances were with the bases empty and 28% with runners in scoring position. For Kershaw, those figures are 65% and 17%, respectively.  Batters have poorer numbers with the bases empty because, in aggregate, those plate appearances are against better pitchers than plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

So how unusual are the Pirates' figures? Here's a table that illustrates how they're doing. I've listed, for each of the past five seasons, the team with the greatest difference (measured by OPS) between batting with runners in scoring position (RISP) and with the bases empty:

I think there are two interesting things here.

1. The Pirates' divergence between batting with runners in scoring position and with the bases empty is the greatest since those record-setting 2013 Cardinals that I mentioned above. What we're seeing so far this year is really unusual.
2. The 2014 Dodgers won their division and had the second-best record in the league. The 2013 Cardinals won their division and had the best record in the league. The 2011 Phillies won their division and had the best record in the league. The only two teams on the list that aren't division leaders are the 2012 Phillies (81-81, third in the National League East) and this year's Pirates.

This isn't to say that the Pirates' batting with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty indicates that they'll win their division. Teams with a .250 on base percentage with the bases empty will struggle to score runs. Rather, it seems reasonable to assume that the wide divergence--nearly 100 points in on base percentage--isn't likely to persist. The Bucs will probably do better with the bases empty and may do worse with runners in scoring position going forward. The net effect would be positive. The lack of clutch hitting this year isn't with runners on, it's with nobody on.

Next Up: Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates started their season on April 6 with a three-game series in Cincinnati. Now, a month later, they host the Reds for another three-game series. Here's a look at the Reds over the past month.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds are 12-13, tied for third in the National League Central with the Pirates. They trail the Cubs by 1.5 games and the red-hot Cardinals by 7.

What's Gong Right? The Reds starters have been good: 3.48 ERA, fifth in the league. They've hit a lot of home runs (34, second in the league) but are tied for only ninth in scoring because of a league-worst .226 team batting average. Their base stealing numbers are ridiculous: 29 stolen bases, most in the league, and just one caught stealing.

What's Going Wrong? The Reds relievers have been awful: 5.34 ERA, last in the league by nearly half a run. And, as noted above, they're batting just .226.

Who's Hot? Joey Votto is batting .323 (13th in the league) with a .427 on base percentage (seventh) and .613 slugging percentage (sixth). He is clearly the team leader with the bat. That's not a big surprise; he's the team's biggest star and is bouncing back from an injury-riddled 2014. Shortstop Zack Cozart (who's questionable due to a bruised finger) is hitting .304/.343/.533 with five homers. Now that's a big surprise; Cozart batted .221/.268/.300 last year with four homers all season. Todd Frazier, with eight homers, and Jay Bruce, with five, have also supplied power, though with batting averages of only .215 and .181, respectively. Frazier's tied for first in the league in homers, Votto's tied for third, Cozart and Bruce are tied for tenth.

The Pirates won't have to face their nemesis Johnny Cueto during the series but they will go up against the Reds' other two top starters, Mike Leake (1-1, 3.03 ERA) and the surprising Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 2.03 ERA). Closer Aroldis Chapman has been his normal ridiculous self (five saves, one win in 11 games; 10.2 innings pitched, 19 strikeouts, five hits and no runs allowed) and setup man Tony Cingrani (2.08 ERA in seven games) has been good. The rest of the bullpen's been awful (7.25 ERA). 

Who's Not? I already mentioned Frazier's and Bruce's batting averages. At least they're walking a bit and hitting some homers. That's not true of left fielder Marlon Byrd (.181) and center fielder Billy Hamilton (.204). Hamilton, as usual, contributes strong defense and a lot of speed (13 stolen bases, tops in the league), though his .260 on base percentage (12th lowest in the league) means he's not getting on base enough to steal more bases or score more runs. Catcher Devin Mescoraco will probably see limited or no action against the Pirates due to a sore hip. He's off to a terrible start: two singles in 24 at bats (.083 batting average).

What's the Outlook? The recipe for beating the Reds is pretty simple: Keep Hamilton off the basepaths so he can't go crazy stealing, limit the baserunners in general to lessen the damage from all those home runs, and try to get to the bullpen before Cingrani and, especially, Chapman have a chance to preserve a lead.

Flyover: Cincinnati Reds

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs last year as a wild card (eliminated in the coin flip game by the Pirates) and were picked by some to win the division this year. No such luck. With star first baseman Joey Votto injured most of the year, second baseman Brandon Phillips having his worst season as a Red and looking old at 33, and right fielder Jay Bruce having the worst year of his career, the Reds are scoring the third-fewest runs per game in the National League, betraying a pitching staff that has a better-than-average 3.57 ERA. The only above-average hitters have been third baseman Todd Frazier and catcher Devin Mesoraco. Rookie center fielder/speedster Billy Hamilton has been OK with the bat and better than expected in the field, but he has somehow manged to steal only 72% of the bases he's attempted to swipe, exactly equal to the league average. Fastest player in baseball, maybe ever, and he's only an average base stealer. At least the team's other speedster, flamethrowing reliever Aroldis Chapman, has been ridiculous: 87 strikeouts in 44.1 innings, striking out 52% of the batter's he's faced (nobody's close), only pitcher with an average fastball velocity in excess of 100 mph. The Reds have fourth place in the NL Central pretty much locked in.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Reds have the worst record in the National League, 9-18, over the last 30 days. The pitching's been bad, especially the bullpen, and the offense has been terrible. Well, it's not like they're playing for the postseason.

What's Going Right? Um. Well. They lead the league in stolen bases over the past 30 days. The pitchers are second in strikeouts. I'm behind writing these or I'd dig up something else. Nothing jumps out. The team has been pretty bad lately. Say this about the offense: the Reds are batting .259 on balls in play over the past 30 days. That's last in the league, by far, way below the league average of .301, suggesting that there's a large dollup of bad luck in their hitting numbers. Batting averages on balls in play don't generally don't persist at the extremes.

What's Going Wrong? This is a much longer list. They're last in batting average (.220), last in on base percentage (.280), second to last in slugging (.332) over the past 30 days. The pitchers are third in walk rate overall, and the relievers have walked 12% of the batters they've faced, by far the most in the league. Remember the On The Field Of Play mantra, It's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. About 48% of Reds relievers' pitchers are in the strike zone (throwing strikes), league average, but they're inducing swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (getting strikes), last in the league. 

Who's Hot? Over the past 30 days, the average National League hitter--this is the league where pitchers hit, remember--is batting .252 with a .314 on base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. There isn't a single Reds batter who's exceeded those figures. Mesoraco's led the team with a .348 on base percentage and a .432 slugging percentage, but as you can see, that's nothing all that special.

All-Star starter Johnny Cueto's been pretty good over the past 30 days, 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA, and starter Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with a 2-1 record. Other than strikeouts (18 in 9 innings), Chapman's had a just OK record (4.00 ERA). He and setup man Jumbo Diaz are the only relievers with nine or more innings pitched over the past month. 

Who's Not? Phillips has had a terrible time at the plate over the past 30 days, batting just .138 with a .194 on base percentage and a .172 slugging percentage. Bruce's slash line is .202/.242/.340 and he's struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Left fielder Ryan Ludwick's slash line is .179/.238/.321. 

What's the Outlook? This is the shortest if these team reports I've written. It's partly because there aren't very many Reds who have been exceptionally good or bad. But mostly, it's because this is an unexciting team. They're clearly playing out the string.

Sweet Play of the Day - May 1

Two today because they're both fun. First, check out Joey Votto's reaction to Carlos Gomez's catch.



Next, maybe it's me, but doesn't Cesar Ramos look surprised to find the comebacker from Jackie Bradley in his glove? His teammate David Price seems to think so.

Reality Check: Good Eye, Bad Eye

(I am making a minor change to these "Reality Check" posts. Rather than base the title on the speaker, I'm going to change it to the subject matter. My goal isn't to single out people who say something that's wrong or right, but to figure out what's accurate.)

The Wall Street Journal has a pretty good sports page. That's all it is, one page, but the paper has smart and clever writers. One of the daily features is a column called "The Count" that uses numbers to illustrate a point. Today's The Count is called "Who Has the Best Eye in Baseball?" To spare you the suspense (though the link isn't behind a paywall), the writer concludes that it's Freddie Freeman of the Braves. Why? Because of batting title qualifiers for last year, Freeman took the most balls per called strike, 4.99. In other words, when he didn't swing, it was five times more likely to be a ball than a strike. That was way ahead of No. 2, The Rangers' Josh Hamilton, at 3.88, and No. 3 Pablo Sandoval of the Giants at 3.76.

One of the key questions you always need to ask when doing statistical analysis is, "Am I measuring the right thing?" The answer in this case is should be, "Anything that claims that Josh Hamilton and Pablo Sandoval have a good eye is probably not measuring the right thing." Hamilton is a notable free swinger, and as for Sandoval, he was the subject of one of the funniest articles last season on Baseball Prospectus. Last year, major league hitters swung at 46% of all pitches. Of the 140 players who qualified for the batting title (502 plate appearances), Freeman swung the tenth most frequently, 55%. Hamilton, at 56%, was seventh. Sandoval's 57% was third. So the top three cited by the Journal were also among the most prolific swingers. Do they have a good eye or don't they?

I think the problem lies in the Journal's methodology. You can achieve a high ratio of called balls to called strikes by never swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. That would increase the numerator in the called balls/called strikes ratio. Or you can swing at every pitch that's in the strike zone. That would reduce the denominator in the ratio. Sure enough, Freeman swung at 86% of pitches in the strike zone, way more than any other player. Hamilton was third, Sandoval fourth.

But does that mean you've got a good eye? Sandoval swung at 45% of pitches outside the strike zone, second most in the majors. Hamilton's 41% was ninth. Freeman was 36th, at 35%, but was still above the league average 31%. That doesn't seem discerning, does it?

Say a pitcher throws 10 pitches to a batter, half of them balls. One batter swings at four of the pitches in the strike zone and two of the pitches outside the zone. By the Journal's methodology, his batting eye would get a rating of 3 balls / 1 called strike = 3.00. Another batter swings at three of the pitches in the strike zone and none of the ones outside the zone. The Journal's rating would be 5 balls / 2 called strikes = 2.50. The former batter would be judged to have a better eye by the Journal's metric. Wouldn't you think that the guy who doesn't swing at pitches outside the strike zone is more disciplined? I would.

Here are the top ten by the Journal's methodology and mine, lowest percentage of swings outside the strike zone.
 Balls per Called Strike      % Swings Outside the Zone
 1. Freddie Freeman  4.99     1. Joey Votto       20.0%
 2. Josh Hamilton    3.88     2. Marco Scutaro    20.1%
 3. Pablo Sandoval   3.76     3. Jason Kipnis     21.6%
 4. Miguel Cabrera   3.72     4. Nate McLouth     21.8%
 5. Chris Davis      3.45     5. Matt Carpenter   22.1%
 6. Brandon Belt     3.45     6. Shin-Soo Choo    22.1%
 7. Carlos Gomez     3.17     7. Coco Crisp       22.5%
 8. Matt Holliday    3.10     8. Russell Martin   22.8%
 9. David Ortiz      3.09     9. Jose Bautista    23.2%
10. Domonic Brown    3.00    10. Dan Uggla        23.2%
Source: Wall Street Journal, FanGraphs

Certainly, the list on the left is much more formidable offensively. But that's not the question. The question is, who has the better batting eye? I'd give the nod to the guys who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone rather than those who swing at everything, in the zone and out. 

2014 Predictions: NL Central

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL West is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.

St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed,  86-76.

Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.

Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.

Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.

Reality Check: Jim Bowden

Former Cincinnati Reds general manager (1992-2003) Jim Bowden hosts a show on the MLB Home Plate station on Sirius XM Radio. Recently, he was discussing Reds Hall of Famer Barry Larkin in the context of current Reds first baseman Joey Votto. Votto gets criticized in some quarters for taking too many walks and not driving in enough runs. Votto's said that his approach at the plate doesn't change when there are runners on base. Some of his critics think he should "expand the zone"--swing at more pitches, basically--when there are runners on base in order to drive them in. Votto swung at 20% of pitches outside the strike zone last year, the lowest percentage in the majors among batters who qualified for the batting title, so there is surely room for expansion. Whether he should or not isn't my point here.

Rather, Bowden said that that's what Barry Larkin did in his career. When he was a leadoff hitter, according to Bowden, Larkin took more walks. When he batted further down the order, he swung at more pitches. But did he really?

It's easy to check this using Baseball Reference, which provides splits for every player, including batting order position. 

• Larkin batted leadoff in 406 games. In those games, he walked in 8.7% of his plate appearances.
• He batted second in 675 games, walking in 9.7% of his plate appearances.
• He batted third in 757 games, walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances.
• He batted in other spots in the order in 342 games, walking in 11.2% of his plate appearances.

So Bowden appears to have it wrong. Larkin walked a lot less frequently at the top of the order than he did elsewhere.

And no, it's not because weak Reds middle-of-the-order hitters resulted in Larkin receiving a lot of intentional walks; the relationship holds up if I exclude intentional passes (8.3% batting first, 9.5% second, 10.6% third, 9.3% elsewhere).

And it's not because he led off a lot as a youngster before he learned the strike zone. In 1988 he batted first in 104 games, the most in his career. He was 24 that year. He walked in 5.4% of his plate appearances batting first, 9.4% batting second, 7.1% batting third. He batted leadoff the second most in his career in 2002, when he was 38. He walked in 8.2% of plate appearances in 58 games batting first, 5.8% in 35 games batting second, but 8.8% in 52 games batting elsewhere. In between, his 1995 MVP season: Walked in 12.8% of plate appearances batting first, 8.0% batting second, 13.4% batting third. 

I really can't find any evidence that Barry Larkin was more selective batting leadoff or more free-swinging further down the order. 

(To be clear, this isn't a knock on Bowden. He's entertaining on the radio, he's dealt closely with hundreds and hundreds of ballplayers, and memory's a tricky thing.)

What Happens When a Pitch is Thrown, Part 4 - Hey Batter Batter

We've established that for pitchers, throwing strikes is good, but getting strikes, from a combination of pitching in the strike zone and inducing swings outside the zone, is better. So let's find out whether the opposite is true for hitters: Do the best hitters avoid strikes, especially outside the strike zone?

When we looked at pitchers, we evaluated them based on ERA, WHIP (baserunners per inning), and percentage of batters getting strikeouts, walks, and home runs. For batters, let's keep the last three, but instead of the pitcher-oriented ERA and WHIP we'll use batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Before I start, let me explain one tweak I did to the data: For pitchers, I included every pitch thrown in the majors last year. For batters, I'm going to exclude plate appearances by pitchers. I'm doing this for two reasons. First, pitchers are remarkably terrible hitters. They batted .132 with a .164 on base percentage and .169 slugging percentage last year. No position players come close to those numbers. Second, they screw up my analysis of balls and strikes. In looking at the numbers, I discovered there are two strategies when a pitcher's at the plate:

1. Throw everything in the strike zone, then laugh derisively as they helplessly flail away.
2. Throw everything outside the strike zone, then laugh derisively as they helplessly flail away.

That means that pitchers' at bats make batters who get a lot of pitches in the strike zone, and those who swing at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone, appear worse than they otherwise would be. So I'm excluding them. In terms of numbers, that means I'm ignoring 19,171 of the 709,916 pitches that were thrown last year. Given that that's only 2.7% of the total, I don't think we're missing much.

How are strikes and batting performance related? We'll start by looking at all strikes: pitches in the strike zone and pitches outside the strike zone at which the batter swings. We're checking to see whether batters with a lot of strikes do poorly. I ranked all batters by percentage of pitches to them that were strikes, and divided into ten groups. Group 1 got the fewest strikes, Group 2 the second fewest, Group 3 the third fewest...you get it. Group 10 had the highest percentage of strikes. Here's how they did:
     Group   BA   OBP   SLG    K%    BB%   HR%
       1   .254  .361  .433  21.1%  13.6%  3.4%
       2   .266  .353  .438  19.6%  11.1%  3.2%
       3   .256  .332  .404  19.3%   9.5%  2.5%
       4   .259  .332  .421  20.6%   9.3%  3.0%
       5   .267  .332  .431  19.2%   8.4%  3.0%
       6   .260  .319  .399  18.8%   7.6%  2.4%
       7   .255  .309  .381  17.8%   6.8%  1.9%
       8   .249  .301  .382  18.5%   6.3%  2.4%
       9   .252  .298  .383  19.5%   5.4%  2.2%
      10   .252  .288  .371  19.2%   4.0%  1.9%

Three reactions to this list. First, if you ignore batting average (which you should, since on base percentage and slugging percentage, as I showed, are better tied to run production), the relationship still holds: the more strikes a batter gets as a percentage of pitches, the worse the batter performs. It's not a flawless relationship, but it's good enough. Second, the batters who get the fewest strikes have the best home run percentages. Remember how that's not true for pitchers. But you can imagine a patient hitter like Joey Votto or Mike Trout or David Ortiz (they're all in Group 1) picking through pitches, waiting for one he can drive. Third, and this is counter-intuitive, the batters who get the lowest percentage of strikes nonetheless manage to strike out more often than anyone else. More on that in a bit.


How are pitches in the strike zone and batting performance related? Remember that pitchers who got more pitches in the strike zone did better than pitchers who didn't. The opposite for batting should be that batters who get the fewest pitches in the strike zone should do better than batters who don't. Here are the numbers:
     Group   BA   OBP   SLG    K%    BB%   HR%
       1   .258  .332  .438  21.6%   9.2%  3.5%
       2   .260  .328  .437  20.3%   8.5%  3.6%
       3   .257  .327  .408  18.6%   8.8%  2.7%
       4   .263  .333  .426  19.8%   9.1%  3.0%
       5   .255  .326  .399  19.9%   8.7%  2.5%
       6   .258  .320  .393  19.6%   7.6%  2.3%
       7   .267  .330  .415  18.9%   8.0%  2.5%
       8   .249  .308  .387  19.5%   7.3%  2.4%
       9   .255  .314  .370  17.8%   7.0%  1.7%
      10   .247  .301  .358  17.5%   6.5%  1.7%

Yes, the relationship holds, though it's not super strong. But hang on, think about it...this is kind of a trick question. Throwing balls into the strike zone is skill. Some pitchers possess it in greater quantities than others. But a batter getting pitches in the strike zone...not a skill. They're just standing there. Unless they get into an extreme Rickey Henderson-style crouch or something, there's nothing a batter can do to influence how many pitches go into the strike zone. Except, of course, by being good. Pitchers are going to pitch a lot more carefully to a slugger than a utility infielder. As a result, we should expect the very best hitters to get the fewest pitches in the strike zone. The table above illustrates that that's how it works. Groups 1 and 2 include guys like Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt. Group 10 has Clint Barmes and Pete Kozma. 

How are swings at pitches outside the strike zone and batting performance related? Strikes are the sum of pitches in the strike zone and pitches outside the strike zone at which the batter swings. For batters, getting pitches in the strike zone isn't a skill, but not swinging at pitches outside the zone is. Do batters who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone do better than those who do? As usual, Group 1 represents the 10% of players who swing the least frequently at pitches outside the strike zone, and Group 10 represents the 10% who swing the most:

     Group   BA   OBP   SLG    K%    BB%   HR%
       1   .249  .342  .391  20.0%  11.6%  2.4%
       2   .262  .346  .436  19.1%  10.7%  2.7%
       3   .256  .331  .399  18.4%   9.5%  2.4%
       4   .256  .324  .396  19.3%   8.5%  2.3%
       5   .254  .322  .397  19.7%   8.4%  2.5%
       6   .256  .320  .412  19.1%   8.0%  3.0%
       7   .260  .314  .392  17.8%   6.8%  2.3%
       8   .264  .323  .426  20.4%   7.3%  3.0%
       9   .255  .301  .395  19.4%   5.6%  2.5%
      10   .257  .298  .406  20.3%   4.8%  2.8%

Certainly, the batters who swing don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone have a better on base percentage, because they walk more. But they don't appear to strike out less, hit with more power, or hit more homers.

So we've got a paradox: Good pitchers get batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, but swinging at pitches outside the strike zone doesn't appear to hurt batters other than to limit their walks. Why is that?

I think the answer is that good hitters have a sweet spot, and if the sweet spot is outside the strike zone, so be it. Group 1 here--batters who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone--include bat-control guys who don't have a lot of power, like Marco Scutaro and Nate McLouth. Group 10 has several hitters who hit the ball hard but swing at most anything, like Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones. And All-Stars like Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez, and Freddie Freeman swing at an above-average number of pitches outside the strike zone as well. 

So let's reiterate the paradoxical conclusion: Good pitchers get batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, but swinging at pitches outside the strike zone doesn't appear to hurt batters other than to limit their walks. Seems to me that if you don't like watching strikeouts, there's nothing to suggest things are going to get much better.

Why Slugging Percentage Matters

If You Don't Want to Read the Whole Thing: I assume you know what batting average is. Here, I showed that on base percentage has more of an impact on run scoring than does batting average. In this post, I show that slugging percentage is even more predictive. A player's slash line (batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage, like .280/.350/.445) is an easy way to display all three figures.

But If You Do: I've already written about on base percentage and why it's important, more important that batting average. I'm going to take the same approach in looking at slugging percentage.

Slugging percentage has been around for a long time. I remember reading a piece in a SABR publication about 30 years ago that referred to an article from around 1915 or so. The author of the older article was trying to make a point about Gavvy Cravath, a slugger (given the context of the time) for the Phillies*. He said that batting average is like asking how much money someone has in his or her pocket, and getting a response of "nine coins." It doesn't tell what the coins are worth. Slugging percentage gives you the dollar value. Batting average is hits divided by at-bats. Slugging percentage is total bases divided by at-bats. To calculate total bases, a single's worth one, a double's worth two, a triple's worth three, and a home run's worth four. A triple might not be worth three times as much as single, as batting average suggests, but it's certainly worth more than a single. The major league leaders in slugging percentage last year were Miguel Cabrera (.636), Chris Davis (.634), David Ortiz (.564), Mike Trout (.557), and Paul Goldschmidt (.551). The major league average was .396.

The difference between batting average and slugging percentage is pretty intuitive. Albert Pujols batted .258 in 391 at bats. Placido Polanco batted .260 in 377 at bats. Close, right? But Pujols hit 19 doubles and 17 homers. Polanco had 13 doubles and a homer. That gives Pujols a .437 slugging percentage compared to .302 for Polanco, illustrating who's the better hitter.

How important is slugging percentage? As I did with on base percentage, I'll check the correlation with runs scored. The higher the correlation, the more more slugging percentage is tied to scoring, which is the object of offense. As I pointed out, the correlation between batting average (BA) and runs, using data from every team since 1995, is 0.80, which is pretty good. The correlation between on base percentage (OBP) and runs is better, 0.88. The correlation between slugging percentage (SLG) and runs is higher still, 0.90. Roughly speaking, this means that BA explains about 65% of run scoring, OBP 78%, and SLG 81%.

When talking about OBP, I noted that last year 24 players batted .300 or better. Joey Votto's .491 SLG was 24th. So we'll say a .490 slugging percentage is like a .300 batting average, just as a .370 on base percentage is like hitting .300.

Enter the Slash Line

I hope I've made it clear why on base percentage and slugging percentage are more important measures than batting average. But this doesn't mean batting average is unimportant. A 0.80 correlation's a good one. So analysts talk about a batter's slash line, defined as BA/OBP/SLG. (The slash separates the figures.) Miguel Cabrera's slash line was .348/.442/.636. That's insanely good, as expected, as Cabrera led the majors in all three categories. The major league average slash line last year was .253/.318/.396. 

You can tell a lot from a slash line. Cleveland's catcher/DH/1B Carlos Santana, .268/.377/.455: Great at drawing walks, decent pop, doesn't get a ton of base hits. (Players with a low BA and high OBP usually strike out a lot, as did Santana.) White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez, .284/.313/.380: A lot of his value is in his batting average, i.e., he doesn't walk a lot or have a lot of power, given his below-average on base and slugging percentages. 

I'm going to use slash lines going forward (starting with the footnote below). If you forget what they are, click on the Glossary at the top of the page.




*I've seen Cravath listed as the player whose career home run record Babe Ruth topped. That's not true. Ruth hit his 139th career home run in 1921, at which time he vaulted past Roger Connor, a first baseman, primarily for the New York Giants, who hit 138 homers during a 18-year career from 1880 to 1897. Cravath was the 20th century record holder, with 119 between 1908 and 1920. He hit all but two of his home runs for the Phillies, who played at Baker Bowl, a hitter's park that was only 281 feet down the right field line, though with a Green Monster-esque 60 foot fence in right. Cravath, though, was a right-handed hitter. Baseball-reference has split data for Cravath only in the last five years of his career, past his prime, but during that time he hit .304/.392/.547 at home and .254/.351/.386 on the road--basically David Ortiz at home and something like the Cardinals' Jon Jay on the road.