Since The Break

Some tidbits about the Pirates since the All-Star break:

• They're 33-21, tied with the Cardinals and Rangers for the fourth-best record in all of baseball, trailing the Blue Jays (37-15), Mets (35-19), and Cubs (35-20). So yes, the four best records in the National League since the break are those of the Mets followed by the three top NL Central teams.
• Their starting pitchers have been mediocre: 4.18 ERA, ninth in the NL, and a 20-20 won-lost record. They've probably been somewhat unlucky, allowing the second-highest batting average on balls in play and the fifth-lowest strand rate (baserunners not coming around to score). Those both tend to be measures of luck more than skill. 
• The bullpen, though...3.12 ERA, third in the league, although helped by the third-highest strand rate in the league. Addressing the question of overuse, Pirates relievers have thrown the sixth most innings since the break but faced the seventh most batters and thrown the eighth most pitches--they've continued to be effective.
• The offensive has come alive. Seventh in the league in runs before the break, they're third since.

Looking at the offense, here are the team's hitters (minimum 40 plate appearances), ranked by OPS, since the All-Star Break.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	H1	Diff
Jung Ho Kang	50	187	33	59	14	0	11	29	0	2	10	46	.316	.373	.567	.939	.732	+.207
Andrew McCutchen	52	189	37	58	9	1	10	36	2	2	34	53	.307	.415	.524	.939	.892	+.047
Mike Morse	28	43	5	14	3	1	1	4	0	0	5	12	.326	.408	.512	.920	NA	NA
Pedro Alvarez	51	140	20	36	4	0	11	28	1	0	14	50	.257	.327	.521	.848	.733	+.115
Francisco Cervelli	45	152	20	47	6	3	2	9	0	0	22	28	.309	.401	.428	.829	.766	+.063
Gregory Polanco	52	220	31	63	14	3	5	20	7	3	16	43	.286	.335	.445	.780	.653	+.127
Starling Marte	51	186	31	53	11	2	3	19	10	2	5	29	.285	.338	.414	.752	.784	-.032
Sean Rodriguez	47	84	12	25	6	0	1	7	0	2	2	24	.298	.337	.405	.742	.589	+.153
Aramis Ramirez	41	145	13	36	10	0	5	28	0	0	10	17	.248	.297	.421	.718	NA	NA
Neil Walker	52	176	21	42	7	3	6	25	0	0	18	28	.239	.299	.415	.713	.755	-.042
Josh Harrison	21	58	9	16	2	0	0	3	1	3	5	9	.276	.354	.310	.664	.696	-.032
Travis Ishikawa	28	48	4	12	2	0	1	8	0	0	4	16	.250	.308	.354	.662	NA	NA
Chris Stewart	22	49	1	14	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	9	.286	.308	.286	.593	.702	-.109
Jordy Mercer	20	58	4	12	2	0	0	6	0	1	7	14	.207	.288	.241	.529	.615	-.086

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/14/2015.

In the table, "H1" refers to the player's OPS in the first half of the season, i.e., up to the All-Star break. "Diff" is the difference between his second and first half OPS. For Morse and Ramirez, both of whom were acquired via trade after the break, the stats shown are only those accumulated with the Pirates. The league average OPS for position players in the second half is .736, so the dividing line between above- and below-average Pirates falls between Rodriguez and Ramirez.

A few things seem apparent from the table:

• The Pirates need Jung Ho Kang in the lineup. He's lost playing time to Aramis Ramirez at third and to Jordy Mercer at shortstop. He's been pretty clearly a better hitter than both, and only Mercer carries a notably superior glove. 
• There's been talk of platooning Polanco and Harrison in right. On paper, that makes sense: Harrison has a .718 OPS against left-handed pitchers, while Polanco's is just .555. But Polanco's been a different hitter since the break. His OPS against lefties was .356 (!) before the break, .707 since. Small sample warning--that .707 is based on only 55 plate appearances--but the difference between Polanco and Harrison against southpaws has been pretty small.
• Harrison's platoon advantage makes more sense to me at second, where Neil Walker has a .770 OPS against right-handed pitchers but only .597 against lefties.
• The platoon of Alvarez and Morse at first base is quite effective at the plate, though it's cringe-worthy in the field. 

So if I'm Clint Hurdle, here's whom I'd play:

C: Cervelli, with Stewart giving him a breather

1B: Alvarez against righties, Morse against lefties, Ishikawa as late-inning defensive replacement

2B: Walker against righties, Harrison against lefties

SS: Kang, Mercer as late-inning defensive replacement with Kang moving over to third

3B: Ramirez against lefties, Harrison and Ramirez splitting time against righties as the situation dictates

LF: Marte

CF: McCutchen

RF: Polanco

But seriously. Since Mercer returned from the disabled list on August 23, the Pirates have started Mercer at short and Ramirez at third in six of their 21 games, or 29% of them. They're 10-5 in games that Kang's started and 3-3 in games that he hasn't. I'm all in favor of getting players occasional rest, but this man's basically been Andrew McCutchen at the plate in the second half of the season. Get him in the lineup.

My Team Went to the Trade Deadline and All I Got Was This Lousy Ramirez, Blanton, Soria, Happ, and Morse

I imagine some Pirates fans are disappointed by the team's trade deadline deals. Specifically, the team didn't land the big arms that got dealt (Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Jonathan Papelbon, David Price) nor the big bats (Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Gomez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist). But realistically, that probably wasn't going to happen. Here's why:

• The Pirates aren't looking to take on big salaries. Look, I think this is kind of a BS argument. The city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy, but the Detroit Tigers have the fifth-highest payroll in the majors. Is that because Detroit is a big-revenue market? Of course not; it means the team is owned by a zillionaire who's willing to spend many tens of millions on his baseball team. The Pirates aren't in the same situation, but it's not dictated by the population of Greater Pittsburgh. Whatever, given that constraint, Tulowitzki (will make a minimum of $98 million after this season), Hamels ($76.5 million), Reyes ($46 million) and even Papelbon ($11 million) weren't going to happen.
• A two-month rental doesn't make a lot of sense for the Pirates. Stars who'll become free agents after this season aren't likely to sign with the Pirates, due to the team's salary constraints. So pending free agents would be with the club for only August, September and however long October lasts. That eliminates Price, Kazmir, Cueto, Leake, Zobrist, and Cespedes. Also Gomez, who'll be a free agent after next season (not that the Pirates need a new center fielder). 
• A bigger reason rentals don't make sense is the Pirates' place in the standings. They enter play tonight 5.5 games behind the Cardinals, 101 games into the season. Could they overtake the Cardinals and skip the wild card game? Sure, it's possible. Would a Cueto or a Cespedes help? Yes, of course. But realistically, the Pirates have won their league or division 16 times. They have never trailed by 5.5 games or more after 101 games and gone on to win. Giving up prime prospects in pursuit of a divisional title that isn't likely to come? That doesn't make sense. On the other hand, the Pirates are currently three games ahead of the Giants for the first wild card, five ahead of the Cubs, 7.5 ahead of the Mets. Nothing's certain, but they look pretty solid for the wild card, no better or worse. It's hard to justify paying a lot to try to exceed or defend that.

So whom did the Pirates get?

• Aramis Ramirez: Already covered this. He'll fill on at third until Josh Harrison comes back from the disabled list, and will continue to play there when the versatile Harrison plays other positions.
• Joe Blanton: He effectively replaces Vance Worley, who was waived. Most fans have two images of Blanton: The guy who went 2-0 in the 2008 postseason, starting three games that his team, the Phillies, won, en route to the World Series championship; and the arsonist who put up ERAs of 5.33, 5.01, 5.00, 4.99, and a hideous 6.51 from 2010-2013. After taking 2014 off, he signed a one-year contract with the Royals this year, for whom he put up decent numbers: 3.89 ERA, 41.2 innings, 1.20 WHIP, 40 strikeouts and just 6 unintentional walks. He'll fill the role of right-handed long reliever/possible spot starter.
• Joakim Soria: He's probably the best player the Pirates added. He was the Royals' closer from 2008-2011, had Tommy John surgery, and came back as a middle reliever for Texas in 2013. He was the Rangers' closer in 2014 and was traded mid-season to the Tigers, for whom he was the closer this year. He'll take his very good 2.85 ERA and less good 1.8 home runs per nine innings (league average for relievers is 1.0) to the Pirates bullpen, where he'll reduce the workload for his teammates. He'll provide  a right-handed counter to left-handed setup man Tony Watson, who had a 1.69 ERA through June 25 and a 7.56 ERA since. 
• J.A. Happ: In pitching coach Ray Searage we trust. Happ, a left-handed starter, hasn't had an ERA below 4.00 since 2010, including this year, when he racked up a 4.64 ERA playing for Seattle, which plays in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Yes, the Pirates need a starter now that they've put A.J. Burnett on the disabled list with a sore elbow, but is Happ the answer? Here's a clue: This year he's thrown his four-seam (straight) fastball 49% of the time and his two-seam (sinking) fastball 15%. The Pirates, as you probably know, emphasize sinking pitches that generate ground balls. Before the 2013 season, the Pirates acquired a left-handed starter (like Happ) who threw both types of fastballs (like Happ). The player they signed has virtually eliminated the four-seamer, become a ground-ball stud (seventh highest ground ball percentage), and posted the 14th-lowest ERA in the National League (among 55 ERA qualifiers) in the three seasons since, 3.12. Am I suggesting that J.A. Happ can be the next Francisco Liriano, who's put up those number since 2013? Probably not, but we're talking about the No. 5 guy in the rotation until Burnett comes back, so there isn't a lot of risk. Happ's a free agent after this season, and his performance to date probably dictates a pay cut from the $6.7 million he's making in 2015.
• Mike Morse: I've talked about the Pirates' need to add a right-handed bat. Morse, a right-handed bat that's due $8.5 million in 2016, probably wasn't anybody's first choice. He batted .294 with a .343 on base percentage and a .514 slugging percentage in four years in Washington from 2009-2012, followed by a terrible .215/.270/.381 in 2013 with Seattle and Baltimore in 2013, a .279/.336/.475 rebound with San Francisco last year, and another bad year to date, .213/.276/.313 with the Marlins. He's been injury prone, but his role in Pittsburgh is likely to be that of pinch hitter and right-handed platoon partner for Pedro Alvarez at first, which should reduce wear and tear. He's a bad fielder at first, which constitutes an improvement over Alvarez. He can also play outfield, in the sense that Kardashians can read poetry: It's possible, but you'd rather not see it. He has been worse than useless against left-handed pitching this season (2-for-22, no extra base hits) but over his career, his .271/.331/.473 slash line against southpaws is a lot better than Alvarez's .198/.267/.322. 

All told, the Pirates improved themselves, in my view. Maybe not dramatically--Morse gives me flashbacks to Justin Morneau, whom the Pirates acquired at the end of August in 2013 and batted .260 with only 3 RBI over 25 games--but Soria eases pressure on the bullpen, Ramirez and Happ address short-term injury-related needs, and Blanton may be an upgrade over Worley. It's nothing flashy, but the Pirates don't appear to be a team that would benefit from flashy nor be hurt by the lack thereof.

Aramis Ramirez, Historically

As I noted yesterday, the new/old Pirates third baseman, Aramis Ramirez, is returning to the club for which he started his career in 1998. He was traded to the Cubs in 2003. Pittsburgh Tribune editor Joe Rutter, who was the paper's beat writer in 2003, remembers his departure in a column today: 

I can still vividly remember Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton hugging and laughing after learning they had been traded to the Chicago Cubs. The announcement came moments after the Pirates were beaten 2-0 by the Houston Astros at PNC Park. And while the rest of their teammates looked on in stunned silence, Ramirez and Lofton acted like they had just won the lottery. Which, in a way, they had. They were leaving a team that was 9.5 games out of first place and en route to an 11th consecutive losing season for a team that, although sitting in third place and 5.5 games out, was intent on making a run for the playoffs. And the Cubs did, winning the division on the final weekend of the regular season (against — who else — the Pirates) and reaching the NLCS before the infamous Game 6, Steve Bartman-fueled collapse.

So Ramirez (and center fielder Kenny Lofton, whom the Pirates had signed as a 36-year-old free agent for $1.025 million before the 2003 season) left what was arguably the worst franchise in baseball for arguably the most snakebit one. Lofton played only 56 games in Chicago before departing as a free agent to the Yankees over the winter, but Ramirez was the Cubs' third baseman from the time of the trade through 2011, hitting 239 home runs as a Cub, sixth on the club's all-time list. In return, the Pirates got pitcher Matt Bruback, who never made it out of the minors, utility player Jose Hernandez, who batted .223 as Ramriez's replacement and was released, and second/third baseman Bobby Hill, who batted .267 with an okay .352 on base percentage but no power in 185 games in Pittsburgh. So, yeah, it was a terrible trade, driven by economics (the arbitration-eligible Ramirez's salary went from $3 million in 2003 to $6 million in 2004).

Pittsburgh's PNC Park opened in 2001, which was the 23 year old Ramirez's first season has a full-time regular. Though the ballpark was his home field for only two and a half seasons, he's seventh on the all time home run list for PNC Park:

Rk	Player	G	HR	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Andrew McCutchen	487	68	2064	1770	314	555	127	17	267	78	25	246	305	.314	.403	.520	.922
2	Jason Bay	370	61	1550	1314	222	372	78	12	241	30	2	203	327	.283	.381	.500	.881
3	Pedro Alvarez	337	56	1264	1140	139	267	51	4	185	6	3	109	323	.234	.302	.433	.736
4	Garrett Jones	338	51	1185	1059	137	261	64	5	175	8	2	105	225	.246	.313	.461	.773
5	Craig Wilson	316	47	1046	897	144	239	48	9	133	7	3	90	284	.266	.365	.497	.862
6	Brian Giles	223	45	953	779	153	252	69	7	143	16	12	160	96	.323	.440	.603	1.043
7	Aramis Ramirez	282	45	1168	1059	136	279	58	0	181	3	1	79	154	.263	.321	.446	.767
8	Ryan Doumit	320	41	1133	1019	127	291	69	2	156	5	4	82	173	.286	.350	.478	.828
9	Neil Walker	391	37	1595	1425	201	398	80	7	185	12	7	128	276	.279	.345	.423	.768
10	Adam LaRoche	213	36	864	769	119	231	69	3	125	4	2	85	168	.300	.368	.538	.906

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 7/24/2015.

Some footnotes:

• Ramirez hit 29 of his homers at PNC as a Pirate, 11 as a Cub, and 5 as a Brewer. LaRoche hit three as a National and two as a Brave; Giles hit two as a Padre. They are the only hitters in the top 10 who didn't hit all their PNC Park homers as a Pirate. 
• Are Ramirez's 16 homers as a visitor the most in PNC Park history? Not even close: Albert Pujols had 29. His lifetime splits in Pittsburgh: 89 games, 354 at bats, 32 doubles, 29 homers, .376 batting average, .452 on base percentage, .718 slugging percentage.
• Ramirez also ranks 12th in PNC Park games played, ninth in at bats, 13th in runs scored, eighth in hits, 11th in doubles, and sixth in RBI. This, for a guy who called the park home only two and a half seasons. It says something about both his excellence and the, let's say, fluidity of the Pirates' roster over the past 15 years.
• McCutchen's in only his seventh season, but he's already No. 1 all time at runs, doubles, triples, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, caught stealing, walks, and total bases at PNC Park.