Aramis Ramirez, Historically

As I noted yesterday, the new/old Pirates third baseman, Aramis Ramirez, is returning to the club for which he started his career in 1998. He was traded to the Cubs in 2003. Pittsburgh Tribune editor Joe Rutter, who was the paper's beat writer in 2003, remembers his departure in a column today: 

I can still vividly remember Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton hugging and laughing after learning they had been traded to the Chicago Cubs. The announcement came moments after the Pirates were beaten 2-0 by the Houston Astros at PNC Park. And while the rest of their teammates looked on in stunned silence, Ramirez and Lofton acted like they had just won the lottery. Which, in a way, they had. They were leaving a team that was 9.5 games out of first place and en route to an 11th consecutive losing season for a team that, although sitting in third place and 5.5 games out, was intent on making a run for the playoffs. And the Cubs did, winning the division on the final weekend of the regular season (against — who else — the Pirates) and reaching the NLCS before the infamous Game 6, Steve Bartman-fueled collapse.

So Ramirez (and center fielder Kenny Lofton, whom the Pirates had signed as a 36-year-old free agent for $1.025 million before the 2003 season) left what was arguably the worst franchise in baseball for arguably the most snakebit one. Lofton played only 56 games in Chicago before departing as a free agent to the Yankees over the winter, but Ramirez was the Cubs' third baseman from the time of the trade through 2011, hitting 239 home runs as a Cub, sixth on the club's all-time list. In return, the Pirates got pitcher Matt Bruback, who never made it out of the minors, utility player Jose Hernandez, who batted .223 as Ramriez's replacement and was released, and second/third baseman Bobby Hill, who batted .267 with an okay .352 on base percentage but no power in 185 games in Pittsburgh. So, yeah, it was a terrible trade, driven by economics (the arbitration-eligible Ramirez's salary went from $3 million in 2003 to $6 million in 2004).

Pittsburgh's PNC Park opened in 2001, which was the 23 year old Ramirez's first season has a full-time regular. Though the ballpark was his home field for only two and a half seasons, he's seventh on the all time home run list for PNC Park:

Rk	Player	G	HR	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Andrew McCutchen	487	68	2064	1770	314	555	127	17	267	78	25	246	305	.314	.403	.520	.922
2	Jason Bay	370	61	1550	1314	222	372	78	12	241	30	2	203	327	.283	.381	.500	.881
3	Pedro Alvarez	337	56	1264	1140	139	267	51	4	185	6	3	109	323	.234	.302	.433	.736
4	Garrett Jones	338	51	1185	1059	137	261	64	5	175	8	2	105	225	.246	.313	.461	.773
5	Craig Wilson	316	47	1046	897	144	239	48	9	133	7	3	90	284	.266	.365	.497	.862
6	Brian Giles	223	45	953	779	153	252	69	7	143	16	12	160	96	.323	.440	.603	1.043
7	Aramis Ramirez	282	45	1168	1059	136	279	58	0	181	3	1	79	154	.263	.321	.446	.767
8	Ryan Doumit	320	41	1133	1019	127	291	69	2	156	5	4	82	173	.286	.350	.478	.828
9	Neil Walker	391	37	1595	1425	201	398	80	7	185	12	7	128	276	.279	.345	.423	.768
10	Adam LaRoche	213	36	864	769	119	231	69	3	125	4	2	85	168	.300	.368	.538	.906

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 7/24/2015.

Some footnotes:

• Ramirez hit 29 of his homers at PNC as a Pirate, 11 as a Cub, and 5 as a Brewer. LaRoche hit three as a National and two as a Brave; Giles hit two as a Padre. They are the only hitters in the top 10 who didn't hit all their PNC Park homers as a Pirate. 
• Are Ramirez's 16 homers as a visitor the most in PNC Park history? Not even close: Albert Pujols had 29. His lifetime splits in Pittsburgh: 89 games, 354 at bats, 32 doubles, 29 homers, .376 batting average, .452 on base percentage, .718 slugging percentage.
• Ramirez also ranks 12th in PNC Park games played, ninth in at bats, 13th in runs scored, eighth in hits, 11th in doubles, and sixth in RBI. This, for a guy who called the park home only two and a half seasons. It says something about both his excellence and the, let's say, fluidity of the Pirates' roster over the past 15 years.
• McCutchen's in only his seventh season, but he's already No. 1 all time at runs, doubles, triples, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, caught stealing, walks, and total bases at PNC Park.

Trailing 30 - June 28

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: We're close enough to the end June to predict Players of the Month. American League: I'd vote for Miguel Cabrera but I expect Albert Pujols will win. Among the pitchers, there's a case to be made for Chris Sale, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Archer, with a nod to the latter for the surprisingly good performance of the Rays. In the National League, looks as if Nolan Arenado is well-positioned to win the top player award (I'd go with Giancarlo Stanton or Paul Goldschmidt) while Max Scherzer seems the choice for top pitcher.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Toronto         18- 9     1. St. Louis       19- 8

2. Tampa Bay       18-10     2. Pittsburgh      17-10    

3. Baltimore       17-10     3. Cincinnati      15-11         

4. Kansas City     15-10     4. Chicago         14-13   

5. NY, Oak         16-11     5. Arizona, SD     14-14        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Boston          11-17     1. Philadelphia     7-19      

   Seattle         11-17     2. New York        11-16       

3. Detroit         10-15     3. Atlanta         12-16      

4. Chicago         11-16        Milwaukee       12-16
5. Minnesota       12-16     5. San Francisco   12-15

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Cabrera, Det     .402     1. Tulowitzki, Col  .394        

2. Pillar, Tor      .379     2. Goldschidt, Ari  .388      

3. Kipnis, Cle      .363     3. Harper, Was      .359           

4. Machado, Bal     .351     4. Turner, LA       .352          

5. Burns, Oak       .339     5. Heyward, SL      .348       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Sanchez, Chi     .165     1. Desmond, Was     .160          

2. Garcia, Chi      .170     2. Galvis, Phi      .169       

3. Rios, KC         .181     3. Ramirez, Mil     .178
4. Ramirez, Chi     .190     4. Norris, SD       .178           

5. Napoli, Bos      .190     5. Duda, NY         .183      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Cabrera, Det     .500     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .512           

2. Kipnis, Cle      .450     2. Harper, Was      .457          

3. Gordon, KC       .433     3. Tulowitzki, Col  .447         

4. Bautista, Tor    .426     4. Coghlin, Chi     .434          

5. Fielder, Tex     .426     5. Votto, Cin       .427      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Pujols, LA       .786     1. Stanton, Mia     .784        

2. JD Martinez, Det .681     2. Arenado, Col     .705     

3. Trout, LA        .653     3. Goldschmidt, Ari .704       

4. Cabrera, Det     .621     4. Frazier, Cin     .701       

5. Machado, Bal     .605     5. Harper, Was      .667        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Pujols, LA         14     1. Stanton, Mia       14
2. JD Martinez, Det   10     2. Arenado, Col       12        

3. Valbuena, Hou       9     3. Frazier, Cin       10
4. 3 with              8     4. 3 with              9
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Gardner, NY        27     1. Arenado, Col       24        

2. Pujols, LA         25        Frazier, Cin       24     

3. Machado, Bal       22     3. LeMahieu, Col      21
4. Bautista, Tor      21     4. 5 with             20
   Zobrist, Oak       21        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Pujols, LA         28     1. Arenado, Col       35        

2. JD Martinez, Det   24     2. Posey, SF          26      

3. Machado, Bal       21     3. Stanton, Mia       25       

4. 3 with             20     4. Frazier, Cin       24
                                Goldschmidt, Ari   24
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Burns, Oak          8     1. Hamilton, Cin      18            

2. Reyes, Tor          7     2. Blackmon, Col      11     

3. 4 with              6     3. Revere, Phi         9   

                             4. Marte, Pit          8
                             5. 2 with              7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Britton, Bal        9     1. Melancon, Pit      12

   Holland, KC         9     2. Rosentha, SL        9

3. Clippard, Oak       8        Ziegler, Ari        9
4. Boxberger, TB       7     4. Chapman, Cin        8

   Perkins, Min        7        Ramos, Mia          8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gallardo, Tex    0.69     1. Garcia, SL       1.03

2. Price, Det       1.45     2. deGrom, NY       1.21

3. Archer, TB       1.80     3. Martinez, SL     1.85

4. Walker, Sea      1.91     4. Hammel, Chi      2.01

5. Sale, Chi        1.98     5. Ray, Ari         2.08

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Martinez, Tex    6.35     1. Lohse, Mil       7.56

2. Elias, Sea       6.21     2. Harang, Phi      6.56

3. Weaver, LA       6.12     3. Cashner, SD      6.55

4. McHugh, Hou      5.00     4. O'Sullivan, Phi  6.00

5. Samardzija, Chi  5.94     5. Hellickson, Ari  5.45

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Sale, Chi        0.80     1. Scherzer, Was    0.62

2. Walker, Sea      0.87     2. deGrom, NY       0.67
3. Archer, TB       0.89     3. Garcia, SL       0.69

4. Buerhle, Tor     0.91     4. Liriano, Pit     0.84
5. Gallardo, Tex    0.92     5. Kershaw, LA      0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          63     1. Kershaw, LA        57     

2. Keuchel, Hou       46     2. Bumgarner, SF      47

3. Walker, Sea        44     3. Scherzer, Was      45

4. Archer, TB         41     4. Liriano, Pit       44

   McCullers, Hou     41     5. Arrieta, Chi       41

Michael Cuddyer and the Case for American League Superiority

Two facts:

• Outfielder Michael Cuddyer was one of twelve major league free agents to receive a qualifying offer from his club. He rejected the opportunity to earn $15.3 million playing for the Rockies in 2015 and instead accepted a two-year contract with the Mets that will pay him $21 million: $8.5 million in 2015 and $12.5 million in 2016.
• In 2014 the American League went 163-137 in interleague games, a .543 winning percentage. The AL won the interleague series in 2013 as well, going 154-146 (.513). It was better in 2012. And 2011. And 2010. And every year beginning in 2004. (The last time the National League won the interleague series, The Curse of the Bambino was a thing and Alex Rodriguez was a shortstop for the Rangers.) And other than that first year, when the AL squeaked to a 127-125 edge, it hasn't been particularly close. Through the league's 11-year winning streak, it's won 55.4% of interleague games. Over a 162-game season, that's equivalent to going 90-72, a better record than either of the teams in this year's World Series.

I view these as interreleated.

Let's start with Cuddyer. In order to understand what he did, let's divide everything by 200 to get the dollars to regular-person levels. Say you're weighing two job opportunities. Your compensation is salary plus commission or bonus, so as is customary in such setups, you get an offer that guarantees you a fixed amount for the first year or two. One employer offers you $76,500 for one year. The other offers you two years: One at $42,500 and one at $62,500. Which do you take?

I would imagine that unless the benefits are insanely good, you don't even consider the second offer. Of course you take the first one. Your guaranteed contract should represent your employer's best guess of what you can make at the company, and the first employer figures you can generate enough business to pull in at least $76,500. The second employer thinks you're worth $14,000 less. No contest.

So why would Michael Cuddyer turn down a contract that would pay him $15.3 million for one year in favor of one that would pay him just $5.7 more than that for two years? Because his expectations aren't the same as yours. You figure that if you make $76,500 with your new employer next year, you'll make at least that much, and very possibly more, the year after, and at least that much the year after that, for years and years into the future. 

Michael Cuddyer, by contrast, has no such expectations. He'll turn 36 next March. He played only 49 games last year due to injuries. There's a small, but non-negligible chance, that next season will be his last in the majors. There's another chance, larger than the first, that something will happen next year--another serious injury, a lousy season--that will make his salary prospects for 2016 tenuous. Look, the Phillies just signed Jeff Francoeur to a minor-league contract with a chance to make the club out of spring training. Francouer is five years younger than Cuddyer and was the Royals' starting right fielder, pulling down $6 million, in 2012. He earned $7.5 million in 2013. Now he's a long shot to get a job. That's the difference between athletes and us. We have a pretty reasonable expectation that whatever we're doing for work this year, whether we're a lawyer or an accountant or a plumber or whatever, we'll be doing it for years to come. An athlete's career is short to start out with, and it can end suddenly. That's why, year after year, we see athletes sign contracts that emphasize length and total dollars rather than average annual value. Cuddyer preferred the Mets' offer of two years and $21 million ($10.5 million per year, on average) over the Rockies' one and $15.3 million because it guarantees him another year of employment and $5.7 million more. Players will reject an x-year contract for an average y million dollars per year in favor of one with a higher x and a lower y. Last year, for example, Robinson Cano reportedly rejected a seven-year contract from the Yankees that would reportedly pay him an average of $25 million per year in favor of a ten-year deal with Seattle that pays him an average of $24 million per year. 

That player preference helps the American League. If players like longer contracts because it insulates them from the risk of a loss of effectiveness, that risk gets absorbed by the team signing a player for multiple years. The Mets are on the hook to Cuddyer in 2016 if he turns into a pumpkin in 2015. The longer the contract, the greater the risk. 

That's where the difference between the leagues comes into play. The American League has a designated hitter; the National League doesn't. A position player, as he ages, is going to become a poorer fielder. His reflexes and range will diminish. In some cases, that means he'll move from a tough position like second base to an easier one like first base, as Hall of Famer Rod Carew did. But in a lot of cases, especially those of sluggers, he'll leave his glove in his locker and just become a designated hitter. In David Ortiz's rookie season with the Twins in 1998, he was the team's primary first baseman, playing 70 games there. He's played a total of 57 games at first for the Red Sox over the past ten years as Boston's  DH. Tigers DH Victor Martinez was primarily a position player from 2002 to 2010. He didn't became a DH until he was 32. 

This creates an advantage for the American League when hitters become free agents. Players want long contracts, teams don't. But the American League can realistically get production out of a player longer than a National League team can, because the American League team can move the player to DH. David Ortiz would probably not have a job with a National League team; he's pretty useless in the field. But he was ninth in the American League in on base plus slugging this year, earning $15 million. He'll turn 39 next week. The option of becoming a DH means that American League teams can offer players like Ortiz longer contracts than can their National League counterparts. Seattle's second baseman Cano will be 40 in the last year of the contract he signed last winter with the Mariners; he'll almost certainly be playing at least part-time at DH before then. American League sluggers tend to stay in the league, and National League sluggers are drawn to the American League for the same reason: American League teams can offer them longer contracts, because they can shift them to DH late in their career. The two best National League hitters in this year's free agent class are the Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez and the Giants' Pablo Sandoval. Ramirez is viewed as a so-so shortstop, and Sandoval, while a good third baseman, has a body type (i.e., he's fat) that might not lend itself to a long career in the field. How much do you want to bet that one or both winds up in the AL? On the other side , the two best AL hitters are the Tigers' Martinez and the Orioles' Nelson Cruz. They're both primarily DHs. Martinez has already re-signed with Detroit, and Cruz is virtually certain to stay in the league. Albert Pujols (went from the Cardinals to the Angels), Prince Fielder (went from the Brewers to the Tigers), Vladimir Guerrero (went from the Expos to the Angels)...the American League steadily draws free agent power hitters from the National League, and there is almost no movement the other way.

Because of the DH, the American League draws power-hitting talent from the National League while retaining its own. That'll help keep it ahead in the interleague standings. The example of Cuddyer isn't perfect--he's a National League hitter staying in the National League--but it's instructive.

And Then There Was One

Following last night's evisceration of the Pirates*, the eight teams entering the Divisional Series round are set. As I commented in my postseason preview:

I am a sucker for small-market, low-payroll teams. This year, only three teams made the postseason with payrolls below the major league median of $95.8 million: The Royals ($89.3 million), the A's ($74.9 million), and the Pirates ($71.5 million). Those three teams were 17th, 26th, and 27th in total payroll. 

Now the A's are gone and the Pirates are gone. Kansas City's up against the team with the best record in the American League, the Los Angeles Angels, so the Royals may be gone soon as well. Here's a list of this year's payrolls (I threw in attendance, number of All-Stars, and average game time for fun), with playoff teams highlighted:

Tm	Attendance	#A-S	Est. Payroll ▾	Time
LAD	3,782,337	4	$212,972,000	3:14
NYY	3,401,624	3	$207,843,459	3:12
PHI	2,423,852	1	$168,837,500	3:09
DET	2,917,209	4	$163,635,500	3:14
BOS	2,956,089	2	$152,634,500	3:17
SFG	3,368,697	3	$145,141,667	3:05
TOR	2,375,525	3	$136,466,200	3:01
TEX	2,718,733	2	$135,288,839	3:06
WSN	2,579,389	2	$129,145,000	3:05
LAA	3,095,935	2	$123,492,000	3:15
BAL	2,464,473	3	$105,572,500	3:07
ARI	2,073,730	2	$105,550,000	3:03
ATL	2,354,305	3	$103,500,250	3:04
CIN	2,476,664	5	$102,860,000	3:03
STL	3,540,649	4	$99,990,000	3:03
MIL	2,797,384	4	$91,625,000	3:07
KCR	1,956,482	3	$89,271,575	3:02
SEA	2,064,334	4	$87,723,400	2:59
COL	2,680,329	2	$87,137,500	3:12
MIN	2,250,606	2	$84,044,000	3:07
CLE	1,437,393	1	$83,413,233	3:12
NYM	2,148,808	1	$80,862,500	3:08
CHW	1,650,821	3	$80,475,500	3:08
SDP	2,195,373	2	$78,043,000	3:01
TBR	1,446,464	1	$77,825,500	3:19
OAK	2,003,628	6	$74,895,900	3:05
PIT	2,442,564	3	$71,545,000	3:09
CHC	2,652,113	3	$64,955,000	3:12
HOU	1,751,829	1	$43,736,800	3:10
MIA	1,732,283	2	$31,100,000	3:05

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/2/2014.

A few observations:

• I'll bet you most people don't know that the Yankees were not the highest-paid team this year.
• Money can't buy me love: Spending a lot on payroll does not guarantee success. Two of the five highest-spending clubs, and three of the top eight, were last-place teams.
• That being said, every team except Kansas City had an above-median payroll. Of the 30 major league teams, every playoff team was in the top 17 for payroll.
• I look at some of those teams on the bottom and think, Man, it's almost impossible for them to compete year after year. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh--real smart front offices, stuck in divisions with teams with seemingly unlimited financial resources.
• Colorado, Minnesota, the White Sox, San Diego, Miami: These teams are also payroll-constrained, and they lack the front office wiles of the teams listed above, at least of late.
• At some point, of course, the Mets, Cubs and Astros will vault into the high-payroll echelon, though it may take a change of ownership for the Madoff-tainted Metropolitans.
• About some of the teams still playing: Despite the ridiculous Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton contracts, the Angels are only tenth in payroll. Detroit, the city, is bankrupt, but Detroit, the baseball team, sure isn't. The Cardinals are not, regardless of what they may claim, a small-market team. Well, they're small market in terms of the city of St. Louis, but not in terms of the ballclub.

Does this matter? Probably not. This isn't a case of the richest teams dominating the postseason, and baseball's annual champion has turned over more frequently than those of other sports. So there aren't money-fueled dynasties. But it sure would be nice to see a small-market, low-payroll team compete well into October.

*For a supremely entertaining review of the game, check out Sam Miller's article today at Baseball Prospectus. The article may be behind a paywall, but Miller's analysis alone is worth the subscription. He points out, among other things, that Giants starter Madison Bumgarner pitched a shutout, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out ten. That's the second time that's happened in the postseason. The other pitcher to have accomplished it is Sandy Koufax.