And Then There Was One

Following last night's evisceration of the Pirates*, the eight teams entering the Divisional Series round are set. As I commented in my postseason preview:

I am a sucker for small-market, low-payroll teams. This year, only three teams made the postseason with payrolls below the major league median of $95.8 million: The Royals ($89.3 million), the A's ($74.9 million), and the Pirates ($71.5 million). Those three teams were 17th, 26th, and 27th in total payroll. 

Now the A's are gone and the Pirates are gone. Kansas City's up against the team with the best record in the American League, the Los Angeles Angels, so the Royals may be gone soon as well. Here's a list of this year's payrolls (I threw in attendance, number of All-Stars, and average game time for fun), with playoff teams highlighted:

Tm	Attendance	#A-S	Est. Payroll ▾	Time
LAD	3,782,337	4	$212,972,000	3:14
NYY	3,401,624	3	$207,843,459	3:12
PHI	2,423,852	1	$168,837,500	3:09
DET	2,917,209	4	$163,635,500	3:14
BOS	2,956,089	2	$152,634,500	3:17
SFG	3,368,697	3	$145,141,667	3:05
TOR	2,375,525	3	$136,466,200	3:01
TEX	2,718,733	2	$135,288,839	3:06
WSN	2,579,389	2	$129,145,000	3:05
LAA	3,095,935	2	$123,492,000	3:15
BAL	2,464,473	3	$105,572,500	3:07
ARI	2,073,730	2	$105,550,000	3:03
ATL	2,354,305	3	$103,500,250	3:04
CIN	2,476,664	5	$102,860,000	3:03
STL	3,540,649	4	$99,990,000	3:03
MIL	2,797,384	4	$91,625,000	3:07
KCR	1,956,482	3	$89,271,575	3:02
SEA	2,064,334	4	$87,723,400	2:59
COL	2,680,329	2	$87,137,500	3:12
MIN	2,250,606	2	$84,044,000	3:07
CLE	1,437,393	1	$83,413,233	3:12
NYM	2,148,808	1	$80,862,500	3:08
CHW	1,650,821	3	$80,475,500	3:08
SDP	2,195,373	2	$78,043,000	3:01
TBR	1,446,464	1	$77,825,500	3:19
OAK	2,003,628	6	$74,895,900	3:05
PIT	2,442,564	3	$71,545,000	3:09
CHC	2,652,113	3	$64,955,000	3:12
HOU	1,751,829	1	$43,736,800	3:10
MIA	1,732,283	2	$31,100,000	3:05

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/2/2014.

A few observations:

• I'll bet you most people don't know that the Yankees were not the highest-paid team this year.
• Money can't buy me love: Spending a lot on payroll does not guarantee success. Two of the five highest-spending clubs, and three of the top eight, were last-place teams.
• That being said, every team except Kansas City had an above-median payroll. Of the 30 major league teams, every playoff team was in the top 17 for payroll.
• I look at some of those teams on the bottom and think, Man, it's almost impossible for them to compete year after year. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh--real smart front offices, stuck in divisions with teams with seemingly unlimited financial resources.
• Colorado, Minnesota, the White Sox, San Diego, Miami: These teams are also payroll-constrained, and they lack the front office wiles of the teams listed above, at least of late.
• At some point, of course, the Mets, Cubs and Astros will vault into the high-payroll echelon, though it may take a change of ownership for the Madoff-tainted Metropolitans.
• About some of the teams still playing: Despite the ridiculous Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton contracts, the Angels are only tenth in payroll. Detroit, the city, is bankrupt, but Detroit, the baseball team, sure isn't. The Cardinals are not, regardless of what they may claim, a small-market team. Well, they're small market in terms of the city of St. Louis, but not in terms of the ballclub.

Does this matter? Probably not. This isn't a case of the richest teams dominating the postseason, and baseball's annual champion has turned over more frequently than those of other sports. So there aren't money-fueled dynasties. But it sure would be nice to see a small-market, low-payroll team compete well into October.

*For a supremely entertaining review of the game, check out Sam Miller's article today at Baseball Prospectus. The article may be behind a paywall, but Miller's analysis alone is worth the subscription. He points out, among other things, that Giants starter Madison Bumgarner pitched a shutout, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out ten. That's the second time that's happened in the postseason. The other pitcher to have accomplished it is Sandy Koufax.

Flyover: Los Angeles Angels

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. Let's improve the mood around here. Having looked at the tales of woe that are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland Athletics, let's look at a happy story: the Los Angeles Angels.

How Are They Doing Lately? As I pointed out in the A's essay, the Angels have gone from trailing the best-record-in-baseball A's at the July 31 trade deadline to an insurmountable 10.5 game lead in the American League West, the first team in the majors to clinch a postseason appearance. And they have the best record in baseball, 94-57 entering today's play, three games better than the surprising Baltimore Orioles. But their ascendancy shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Yes, they trailed the A's most of the season, but they trailed them with the second-best record in baseball. 

Anyway, they've been really good lately. They're 22-7 over the past 30 days, the best record in the American League. They've scored the most runs per game (5.7, well ahead of the Tigers, in second at 5.4) and they've given up the third fewest (3.4). 

What's Going Right? Well, obviously, both hitting and pitching. (The team's defense has been a bit above average as well.) On offense, they're second in batting average and on base percentage, and fourth in slugging percentage over the past 30 days. They've been the third toughest team in the league to strike out, whiffing in just 18% of plate appearances, and they're fourth in homers and fifth in isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average), which means that when they make contact, it's hard contact. Oh, and speaking of contact, they've made contact on 90% of the pitches thrown to them in the strike zone, the third-highest percentage in the league, indicating that they're not missing on pitches in the zone.

The team ERA of 3.27 over the past 30 days is fourth lowest in the league, compared to a league average of 3.68. The starters' 3.19 is fifth best, the bullpen's 3.38 is sixth best. The Angels don't follow the On The Field Of Play mantra that it's good throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes, as they're fifth-lowest in the league over the past 30 days at pitching to the strike zone (they're not throwing strikes), and they're getting batters to swing at just 27% of pitches outside the zone, second-lowest in the league (they're not getting strikes). They've induced weak contact, though, with only 7% of fly balls becoming homers (fourth-lowest in the league, where the average is 9%). Among six Angels relievers with over six inning pitched over the past 30 days, only one, Fernando Salas, has given up a homer.

What's Going Wrong? Hard to quibble with the offense. They've been maybe a little lucky. Their batting average on balls in play is .313 compared to a league average of .295, and an average well above (or below) the league average are probably a little fluky. But that's about it. Same for the pitchers: that very low home run rate on fly balls probably isn't sustainable. The pitchers also walk more hitters than you'd like, 8.5% of batters over the last 30 days compared to a league average of 7.3%, but they've been able to strand 78% of baserunners, second most in the league, compared to a league average of 73%. That, difference, too, is probably not going to persist.

All this suggests the Angels probably aren't quite as good as they've appeared to be over the past 30 days. That sure beats being bad, of course. 

Who's Hot? Three batters have been hot over the past 30 days. MVP-to-be center fielder Mike Trout is eighth in on base percentage, .392, and fifth in slugging percentage, .593. He's also tied for fourth in the league in homers with seven, first in runs with 28, and tied for seventh in RBI with 27. Shortstop Erick Aybar is batting .356 and second baseman Howie Kendrick has a slash line of .325/.361/.465. Catcher Chris Ianetta has a weird batting line: .212 batting average but .434 on base percentage, best on the club, as he's got twice as many walks and hit by pitches (22) as hits (11).

The Angels haven't missed a beat since ace Garrett RIchards (13-4, 2.61 ERA) suffered a season-ending knee injury on August 20. Over the past 30 days, Mike Shoemaker has gone 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and Jered Weaver is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. 

At the beginning of the season, Huston Street was the closer for the Padres. The Angels' closer was Ernesto Frieri, who blew up for the Angels (6.39 ERA), then was traded to Pittsburgh (where he was worse: 10.13 ERA before earning his release) for Jason Grilli. Street joined the club on July 19 and has notched more saves (14) in the ensuing eight weeks than Frieri got in three months. Over the past 30 days, he's got five saves and a 1.80 ERA. Setup men Mike Morin and Joe Smith have pitched 23 innings and combined for a 0.78 ERA. 

Who's Not? On offense, no regular's been really bad, though highly-paid first baseman Albert Pujols ($23 million this year, $167 million more guaranteed through 2021, .286/.331/.420 slash line) and left fielder Josh Hamilton ($17 million this year, $89 million more guaranteed through 2017, .250/.294/.417) have been a lot more mortal than their paychecks would suggest. After Shoemaker and Weaver, the starting pitching's been unimpressive over the past 30 days. CJ Wilson and Hector Santiago have a combined 5-2 won-lost record, but that's due to outstanding run support; they have above-average ERAs of 4.22 and 3.97, respectively. 

What's the Outlook? The Angels are looking to October, where they'll appear for the first time since 2009. They have enough pop; the question will be whether they have enough pitching behind Shoemaker and Weaver. If they remain the top team in the league, they'll draw the wild card team, which presumably will have burned its ace in the one-game play-in, so LA will be favorites to advance to face the winner of what looks likely to be a Tigers-Orioles matchup for the American League championship.