The Week That Was: National League West

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

This project's a lot of work. No division more so than this one. 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Traded for: 2B-SS Raymel Flores, SP Rubby De La Rosa, RP Zack Godley, 2B/SS Domingo Leyba, SP Jeferson Mejia, SP Robbie Ray, SP Allen Webster

Traded away: SS Didi Gregorius, SP Wade Miley, C Miguel Montero

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: At 64-98, the Diamondbacks were the worst team in baseball in 2014. These moves are recognition of that. The team traded three established players for a bunch of prospects. It won't help them much this year, but it might in the coming years.

2016+ Impact: De La Rosa was supposedly one of the centerpieces of the big salary dump in 2012 in which the Red Sox sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers, but he hasn't done much with the Red Sox (4-8, 4.43 ERA in 18 starts in 2014). Godley and Mejia come from the Cubs' deep farm system. They both pitched at Class A and Rookie ball last year, so they're not close. Ditto Leyba, who's just 19. Ray, like De La Rosa, was a centerpiece of a notable trade--the one last winter that sent pitcher Dough Fister to Nationals--who's now being traded again. He was the Tigers' No. 3 prospect entering the season according to ESPN's Keith Law, but he posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games for Detroit and a 4.22 ERA at AAA Indianapolis (the league average was 4.04). Webster was ranked 88 by Baseball America and 46 by MLB.com before last season, and he posted good numbers at AAA Pawtucket (3.10 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 122 innings) and not so good numbers in Boston (5.03 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 59 innings). For these moves to work for the Diamondbacks over the long term, somebody's going to have to pan out, because the three players Arizona traded away aren't at risk of leaving via free agency: Gregorius won't be eligible until 2010, Miley and Montero until 2018.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Traded for: RP Jairo Diaz

Traded away: 2B/SS Josh Rutledge

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This could be a nice deal for the Rockies. Diaz is a converted catcher who was pretty strong at A and AA (3.48 ERA, 85 strikeouts in 64.2 innings over 56 games) and a brief trial in Anaheim (four hits, eight strikeouts, three walks in 5.2 innings in five games). Rutledge has been below-average at the plate in three seasons of part-time play in Colorado. His role in 2015 was likely to hang around until Troy Tulowitzki gets hurt, and Colorado always has a need for arms.

2016+ Impact: As with 2015, I think this trade makes the Rockies a slightly better team.


LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Traded for (deep breath): C-IF Austin Barnes, SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, RP Chris Hatcher, OF Chris Heisey, IF-OF Enrique Hernandez, 2B Howie Kendrick, SP Joe Wieland
Traded away (another deep breath): C Tim Federowicz, 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, OF Matt Kemp, SP Matt Magill, IF Miguel Rojas
Free agents signed: SP Brandon McCarthy

2015 Impact: Hacking through all of this...the key additions here are Grandal, Kendrick, and McCarthy; the key subtractions are Gordon, Haren, and Kemp. A lot of Dodger fans are pretty upset about these moves, but as I've written, I don't think the loss of Kemp is that traumatic, and I'm not a big Dee Gordon fan. Haren wasn't all that good last year, and is making noises about retiring rather than reporting to the Marlins. Grandal's an underrated catcher, and Dodgers catchers were pretty atrocious last year (.181 batting average, .283 on base percentage, .261 slugging percentage--all last in the league). McCarthy split last season between the Diamondbacks, for whom he was pretty bad (3-10, 5.01 ERA) and the Yankees, for whom he was pretty good (7-5, 2.89 ERA). His underlying peripherals at both stops (strikeout, walk, and home run rate) point to mid-3-range ERA. And while he has a deserved reputation for being injury-prone, there were only 32 pitchers in the majors who topped his 200 innings pitched last year. Among the other players acquired, Hatcher had a strong year in the Marlins bullpen and joins a team with a real need for a bridge to closer Kenley Jansen. I'm willing to concede that maybe these moves in aggregate make the Dodgers a little weaker next year, due largely to Kemp's bat, but I'm leaning more toward them being a push and possibly a plus.

2016+ Impact: Kendrick could turn out to be rental (he's eligible for free agency in 2016) but several of the youngsters the Dodgers picked up could be contributors in the future. Eflin was first round draft pick two years ago, Hernandez can play all over the field, and Barnes plays catcher, second, and third. Wieland had a strong if shortened year coming back from Tommy John surgery. All could help the Dodgers, possibly in 2015, more likely in 2016 and beyond.

Comic relief: The Dodgers moves came so fast and furious that at one point they traded for left-handed pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, only to trade him away less than two hours later. That prompted this tweet from Heaney:

Well, @Dodgers we had a good run! Great to be a part of such a storied franchise. #thanksforthememories
— Andrew Heaney (@Heandog8) December 11, 2014

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Traded for: C Tim Federowicz, OF Matt Kemp
Traded away: SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, SP Joe Wieland
Free agents signed: SS Clint Barmes

2015 Impact: Well, if I liked this trade for the Dodgers, I suppose I don't like it for the Padres. Assuming Kemp's healthy and not playing center, though, this should make San Diego better in 2015. Barmes is a good glove/no bat guy who'll be 36 next season and was signed to a one-year contract (with a team option for 2016). He'll back up Alexi Amarista, a similarly bad hitter who could stand to learn some defensive pointers from his new teammate.

2016+ Impact: This is where I have reservations. The Padres gave up an OK catcher and a couple good pitching prospects for Matt Kemp's decline phase. Also, I should note that while Dodgers Stadium boosts homers for right-handed hitters, San Diego's Petco Park doesn't, so Kemp's superficial power numbers are likely to decline.


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Thanks, Giants. I needed a breather.

Flyover: Los Angeles Angels

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. Let's improve the mood around here. Having looked at the tales of woe that are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland Athletics, let's look at a happy story: the Los Angeles Angels.

How Are They Doing Lately? As I pointed out in the A's essay, the Angels have gone from trailing the best-record-in-baseball A's at the July 31 trade deadline to an insurmountable 10.5 game lead in the American League West, the first team in the majors to clinch a postseason appearance. And they have the best record in baseball, 94-57 entering today's play, three games better than the surprising Baltimore Orioles. But their ascendancy shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Yes, they trailed the A's most of the season, but they trailed them with the second-best record in baseball. 

Anyway, they've been really good lately. They're 22-7 over the past 30 days, the best record in the American League. They've scored the most runs per game (5.7, well ahead of the Tigers, in second at 5.4) and they've given up the third fewest (3.4). 

What's Going Right? Well, obviously, both hitting and pitching. (The team's defense has been a bit above average as well.) On offense, they're second in batting average and on base percentage, and fourth in slugging percentage over the past 30 days. They've been the third toughest team in the league to strike out, whiffing in just 18% of plate appearances, and they're fourth in homers and fifth in isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average), which means that when they make contact, it's hard contact. Oh, and speaking of contact, they've made contact on 90% of the pitches thrown to them in the strike zone, the third-highest percentage in the league, indicating that they're not missing on pitches in the zone.

The team ERA of 3.27 over the past 30 days is fourth lowest in the league, compared to a league average of 3.68. The starters' 3.19 is fifth best, the bullpen's 3.38 is sixth best. The Angels don't follow the On The Field Of Play mantra that it's good throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes, as they're fifth-lowest in the league over the past 30 days at pitching to the strike zone (they're not throwing strikes), and they're getting batters to swing at just 27% of pitches outside the zone, second-lowest in the league (they're not getting strikes). They've induced weak contact, though, with only 7% of fly balls becoming homers (fourth-lowest in the league, where the average is 9%). Among six Angels relievers with over six inning pitched over the past 30 days, only one, Fernando Salas, has given up a homer.

What's Going Wrong? Hard to quibble with the offense. They've been maybe a little lucky. Their batting average on balls in play is .313 compared to a league average of .295, and an average well above (or below) the league average are probably a little fluky. But that's about it. Same for the pitchers: that very low home run rate on fly balls probably isn't sustainable. The pitchers also walk more hitters than you'd like, 8.5% of batters over the last 30 days compared to a league average of 7.3%, but they've been able to strand 78% of baserunners, second most in the league, compared to a league average of 73%. That, difference, too, is probably not going to persist.

All this suggests the Angels probably aren't quite as good as they've appeared to be over the past 30 days. That sure beats being bad, of course. 

Who's Hot? Three batters have been hot over the past 30 days. MVP-to-be center fielder Mike Trout is eighth in on base percentage, .392, and fifth in slugging percentage, .593. He's also tied for fourth in the league in homers with seven, first in runs with 28, and tied for seventh in RBI with 27. Shortstop Erick Aybar is batting .356 and second baseman Howie Kendrick has a slash line of .325/.361/.465. Catcher Chris Ianetta has a weird batting line: .212 batting average but .434 on base percentage, best on the club, as he's got twice as many walks and hit by pitches (22) as hits (11).

The Angels haven't missed a beat since ace Garrett RIchards (13-4, 2.61 ERA) suffered a season-ending knee injury on August 20. Over the past 30 days, Mike Shoemaker has gone 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and Jered Weaver is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. 

At the beginning of the season, Huston Street was the closer for the Padres. The Angels' closer was Ernesto Frieri, who blew up for the Angels (6.39 ERA), then was traded to Pittsburgh (where he was worse: 10.13 ERA before earning his release) for Jason Grilli. Street joined the club on July 19 and has notched more saves (14) in the ensuing eight weeks than Frieri got in three months. Over the past 30 days, he's got five saves and a 1.80 ERA. Setup men Mike Morin and Joe Smith have pitched 23 innings and combined for a 0.78 ERA. 

Who's Not? On offense, no regular's been really bad, though highly-paid first baseman Albert Pujols ($23 million this year, $167 million more guaranteed through 2021, .286/.331/.420 slash line) and left fielder Josh Hamilton ($17 million this year, $89 million more guaranteed through 2017, .250/.294/.417) have been a lot more mortal than their paychecks would suggest. After Shoemaker and Weaver, the starting pitching's been unimpressive over the past 30 days. CJ Wilson and Hector Santiago have a combined 5-2 won-lost record, but that's due to outstanding run support; they have above-average ERAs of 4.22 and 3.97, respectively. 

What's the Outlook? The Angels are looking to October, where they'll appear for the first time since 2009. They have enough pop; the question will be whether they have enough pitching behind Shoemaker and Weaver. If they remain the top team in the league, they'll draw the wild card team, which presumably will have burned its ace in the one-game play-in, so LA will be favorites to advance to face the winner of what looks likely to be a Tigers-Orioles matchup for the American League championship.

Yes, But Who Finished Second?

More fun from the new Bill James Handbook.

The book has a section on baserunning. It lists each player's proficiency at not just basestealing and grounding into double plays; it also tracks baserunning errors, like getting doubled off a base or getting caught stretching to an extra base. This section of the book had a great statistic in 2011: Miguel Cabrera led the majors in going from first to third on singles. You think of guys going from first to third on singles, you think of fast guys. You don't think of Miguel Cabrera. The reason he was first, James explained, is that he was on first base a lot (230 singles, walks, and hit by pitches) and he batted ahead of Victor Martinez, who was a singles machine that year, racking up 126 of them. James called it "borderline unbelievable" and I can't disagree.

This year, the opposite occurred, in terms of surprise: Who do you think led in getting thrown out on the basepaths? These include times thrown out trying to advance, getting doubled off, or making an out when other runners score on a sacrifice fly  or advance on a wild pitch or passed ball. 

Making a baserunning out. This is not a trick question. It should be obvious. Anti-borderline unbelievable.

Think about. Getting thrown out trying to advance. We heard about it enough.

Right, Yasiel Puig. Thrown out eleven times. Most in the majors. All those sportswriters had a point, at least as far as the way he ran.

But here's what is surprising: Two guys tied for second with ten outs, just one behind Puig. They were Howie Kendrick, whom I think of as a decent runner, and Allen Craig, who strikes me as kind of a plodder who shouldn't be taking chances. At 30, Kendrick may not have realized that he's lost a step, while Craig probably never had one to lose. Kendrick played for an Angels team that's aggressive on the basepaths, finishing second in the majors in baserunning outs. Craig has no such excuse.