Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Earlier this week, I addressed concerns that the Pirates can't win against teams with a winning record. It's true that they have a losing record against teams playing .500 or better. But so do most teams. In fact, the Pirates are now sixth in the league in winning percentage against .500 or better teams. But here's another issue, as they enter play against the 35-38 Atlanta Braves: They haven't played a lot of games against good teams. The Cardinals have played 38 games against teams at .500 or better, 34 against teams with losing records. The Cubs have played 38 games against better teams, 33 against those with losing records. For the Pirates, the split is 30/42. I'll do a strength-of-schedule post sometime later, but the team is going to face some tougher competition as the season moves forward.

How Are They Doing Lately? Not great. They're 13-15 over the last 30 days. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, fifth in the league, and allowed 4.4 per game, the fifth most. So the problem's been pitching more than hitting. They lost two of three to the Pirates earlier this month, and the three games this weekend are the last time the two clubs will meet this season. 

What's Going Right? The Braves are batting .268, third in the league over the last 30 days, and they're second in on base percentage, .327. So they've been getting on base a lot. The starters have a good ERA, 3.54, fifth best in the league, but with the lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-highest walk rate. No team's starters have kept the ball in the strike zone more than the Braves (53% of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days), but they're not fooling batters with pitches outside the strike zone, as batters have swung at less than 29% of pitches outside the zone, second fewest in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The team's slugging .367 over the last 30 days, third worst in the league. They've hit only 16 homers, tied for fewest in the league, and 43 doubles, tied for the fifth fewest. They lead the league in singles over the last 30 days, with 201, 19 more than the second-place Pirates. So the Braves have hit a lot of singles but lack power, and that's limited their ability to score. The bullpen's been a weakness all season, and the 4.44 relievers' ERA over the past 30 days is the third worst in the league.

Who's Hot? The Pirates won't face the Braves' best starter, Shelby Miller (2.65 ERA over the past 30 days), but the three they will face have been pretty good: Williams Perez (2.32 ERA, but walking nearly a batter every other inning), Julio Teheran (4.28 ERA but a gem in his last start, seven one-hit innings against the Mets) and Alex Wood (2.97 ERA). Closer and former Pirate Jason Grilli has a 0.75 ERA and seven saves over the last 30 days and reclamation project Jim Johnson (7.09 ERA last year with two teams) has a 2.77 ERA and two saves. Rookie second baseman Jace Peterson and center fielder Cameron Maybin have been a solid one-two punch at the top of the lineup, with on base percentages of .373 and .367, respectively. Shortstop and fielding wizard Andrelton Simmons has batted .320 with a .371 on base percentage over the past 30 days, albeit with only three extra-base hits.

Who's Not? Take away Grilli and Johnson and the Braves bullpen has a 5.76 ERA. The Braves' best hitter, Freddie Freeman, just hit the disabled list, and he accounted for seven of the club's sixteen homers over the past 30 days. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski has a .286 on base percentage over the last 30 days, and the team's had a sinkhole in left field all year. 

What's the Outlook? I said this the last time the teams met, and I'll say it again: The key for the Pirates will be to get to the Braves' starters early to get at the middle relief underbelly of the Braves' bullpen and keep the ball out of their former teammate Grilli's hand.

Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Sweeping the Giants at AT&T Park...didn't see that coming. Going into the series, as I noted, the Giants had the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games. Now, the team with the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games is...the Pittsburgh Pirates.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, there have been four pretty good teams in the National League: the Pirates (17-10), Nationals (16-10), Cardinals, and Giants (both 16-12). There have been four pretty bad teams: the Marlins (9-18), Brewers (10-17, Reds (10-16), and Phillies (11-16). Everybody else is between 13-15 and 15-12. That includes the Braves, 13-13. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, seventh in the league. They've given up 4.3, which is ninth. They're pretty much .500 at everything.

What's Going Right? The offense hasn't been anything special, but over the past 30 days, the Braves have the been the fifth-toughest team to fan, they're tied for fifth with 17 stolen bases, and they've succeeded in 77% of their stolen base attempts, the second-best percentage in the league. The starters' 3.83 ERA is the fifth best in the league over the past 30 days.

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's got a 5.45 ERA over the past 30 days, easily the worst in the league. The starters have gotten only the eighth-most strikeouts while allowing the fourth-most walks, suggesting that their recent success may not last. The problem on offense has been power: the Braves have 12 homers over the past 30 days, last in the National League, and they and the Padres (17) are the only teams with fewer than 22 homers. 

Who's Hot? Freddie Freeman's bat has carried the offense over the past 30 days: .297/.360/.515 slash line, leading the club in homers (5) and RBI (19). Nick Markakis leads the team in batting average (.320) and on base percentage (.398) and is second in slugging percentage (.430), a function of his team-leading 21 singles and 11 doubles. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, as usual, provides highlights-reel defense. Starters Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, and Williams Perez have combined for a 5-1 record and 1.80 ERA with two home runs allowed over the past 30 days. The team's two primary setup relievers, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan, have ERAs of 2.38 and 0.93, respectively, over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Christian Bethancourt have matching .182 batting averages over the past 30 days. Left fielder Jonny Gomes has a .208/.235/.271 slash line. Alberto Callaspo and his .150/.255/.150 slash line held down third for much of the past 30 days, but he's been traded, with Juan Uribe and Chris Johnson taking over. The starters not named Miller, Perez, or Wood have a 5.87 ERA over the past 30 days.

The facile explanation of the bullpen's struggles is the departure, via a season-opening trade, of closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego. The Braves' new closer, former Pirate Jason Grilli, hasn't dominated over the past 30 days--4.32 ERA, 4.3 walks per nine innings, .417 batting average on balls in play--but he's 7-for-7 in saves. Kimbrel's been unremarkable over the same period: 3.86 ERA, 3.9 walks per nine, .409 batting average on balls in play, 4-for-5 in saves. So the problem's not Kimbrel's absence. Rather, it's been the bullpen other than Grilli, Johnson, and Avilan: the other Braves relievers have combined for a 7.85 ERA.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates draw two of the Braves' hot starters, Perez and Wood, followed by the inconsistent Julio Teheran (1.08 ERA in his four wins, 7.50 ERA in his two losses and five no-decisions). I wasn't expecting a sweep in San Francisco, and I'm not expecting one in Atlanta, either. The key, it seems to me, will be getting to the Braves' starters early in order to get to the weak middle of the Atlanta bullpen.

Trouble in the Shark Tank: Another Year, Another Struggling Closer

Mark Melancon, whose experience swimming with sharks off the New Zealand coast prior to the 2013 season led to the "Shark Tank" nickname to the Pirates bullpen, graduated from eighth-inning setup man to closer last season. That occurred because the Pirates' 2014 closer, Jason Grilli, had problems out of the gate. He blew three saves in April, wound up on the disabled list, came back in May to save three games but blew another save and got a loss in June, resulting in a trade to the Los Angeles Angels. 

Grilli's a fastball-slider pitcher. Here's a chart of his pitch velocities, by pitch type by month, through the day he was traded last year:

Look at those red dots along the bottom. That's the average velocity of his slider by month. It was 82.6 mph in one game in March 2014, 82.8 mph in April, 83.0 mph in May, 83.1 mph in June. The year before, it was 84.4 in April, 83.8 in May, 83.3 in June. In 2012, it was 83.3, 83.3, and 83.8 in April-June. So he lost about a mile per hour. Batters hit .286 with a .571 slugging percentage when they made contact with his slider to start 2014. He got swings and misses on 15% of his sliders, and strikes on 59% of them.

By contrast, in the first three months of 2013, batters whiffed on 23% of his sliders, of which 72% were strikes. Batters went 7-for-46 (.152 batting average), all singles (so they slugged .152 as well), when they made contact against the pitch. In the first three months of 2012, he got whiffs on 20% of his sliders, strikes on 67%, and batters compiled an .088 batting average and .294 slugging percentage against the pitch. 

Long story short, Grilli lost effectiveness in 2014 because his slider, an extremely effective pitch in 2012 and 2013, became much more hittable, in part due to a decline in velocity. His fastball lost effectiveness too, without a significant drop in velocity, so I'm not suggesting the slider tells the whole story. But it's worth noting that a drop in velocity can presage problems for a pitcher.

Now, Melancon. I touched on his loss of velocity last week. Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune looked into it in more detail. First, the velocity picture. 

Melancon has two primary pitches: a cut fastball (the red triangle) and a curve (yellow squares). His curve velocity so far this year is 79.8 mph. It's been an 81-82 mph pitch for him historically. Worse (because curveballs aren't fast pitches), his cutter is averaging below 90 mph this year. It's never been below 92 mph for him, in any month, at any point in his career. 

Less velocity has resulted in less success. Here are the numbers for Melancon's cutter from April 2013, April 2014, and April 2015:

• April 2013: 76% strikes, 11% swing-and-miss, .180 batting average on contact, .282 slugging percentage on contact 
• April 2014: 70% strikes, 14% swing-and-miss, .231 batting average on contact, .231 slugging percentage on contact
• April 2015: 73% strikes, 6% swing-and-miss, .333 batting average on contact, .667 slugging percentage on contact

The curve hasn't been as effective, either:

• April 2013: 67% strikes, 26% swing-and-miss
• April 2014: 71% strikes, 29% swing-and-miss
• April 2015: 56% strikes, 12% swing-and-miss

Look at the decline in whiffs. Batters were getting fooled by the cutter a fair amount and the curve a lot in 2013-14. He's getting fewer than half as many swinging strikes on them this year. He's not fooling batters.

Why is this? Well, in Sawchik's thorough analysis, he notes that Melancon's release point--the point in his delivery where he releases the baseball toward the plate--has moved. He's letting go of his pitches about two inches higher than last year. That's a lot. Here are the release points for his cutter from 2012 to 2015: 6.43 feet, 6.44 feet, 6.35 feet, 6.52 feet. As Sawchik points out, that's odd. So maybe his problem's something mechanical, and therefore fixable. Call me a pessimist, but I'm inclined to believe the dark side of this 2013 FanGraphs article by Bill Petti, that a loss of velocity in April is an (admittedly weak) indicator of injury, though, again, as Sawchik points out, an injury usually results in a lower release point. In any case, Melancon's doing something different, and that something's made him much less effective.

Last night's loss was tough. The Pirates gave up a run in the first, came back to take a 2-1 lead, immediately surrendered two more runs, and were behind 4-2 in the sixth when they scored three to take a 5-4 lead. The Cubs pulled even in the top of the seventh, but the Pirates scored three in their half of the inning with a dramatic two-out bases-loaded double by Jung Ho Kang. They were leading 8-6 when they handed the ball to Melancon. But while there may be something wrong with Melancon, it's worth noting that the 2015 Pirates are 6-8 after 14 games, just one game worse than the 2013 and 2014 wild card teams. And last night was Melancon's first blown save of the season. By April 21 last year, Grilli had already blown three. It's still only April.

Flyover: Los Angeles Angels

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month. Let's improve the mood around here. Having looked at the tales of woe that are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland Athletics, let's look at a happy story: the Los Angeles Angels.

How Are They Doing Lately? As I pointed out in the A's essay, the Angels have gone from trailing the best-record-in-baseball A's at the July 31 trade deadline to an insurmountable 10.5 game lead in the American League West, the first team in the majors to clinch a postseason appearance. And they have the best record in baseball, 94-57 entering today's play, three games better than the surprising Baltimore Orioles. But their ascendancy shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Yes, they trailed the A's most of the season, but they trailed them with the second-best record in baseball. 

Anyway, they've been really good lately. They're 22-7 over the past 30 days, the best record in the American League. They've scored the most runs per game (5.7, well ahead of the Tigers, in second at 5.4) and they've given up the third fewest (3.4). 

What's Going Right? Well, obviously, both hitting and pitching. (The team's defense has been a bit above average as well.) On offense, they're second in batting average and on base percentage, and fourth in slugging percentage over the past 30 days. They've been the third toughest team in the league to strike out, whiffing in just 18% of plate appearances, and they're fourth in homers and fifth in isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average), which means that when they make contact, it's hard contact. Oh, and speaking of contact, they've made contact on 90% of the pitches thrown to them in the strike zone, the third-highest percentage in the league, indicating that they're not missing on pitches in the zone.

The team ERA of 3.27 over the past 30 days is fourth lowest in the league, compared to a league average of 3.68. The starters' 3.19 is fifth best, the bullpen's 3.38 is sixth best. The Angels don't follow the On The Field Of Play mantra that it's good throw strikes, but it's better to get strikes, as they're fifth-lowest in the league over the past 30 days at pitching to the strike zone (they're not throwing strikes), and they're getting batters to swing at just 27% of pitches outside the zone, second-lowest in the league (they're not getting strikes). They've induced weak contact, though, with only 7% of fly balls becoming homers (fourth-lowest in the league, where the average is 9%). Among six Angels relievers with over six inning pitched over the past 30 days, only one, Fernando Salas, has given up a homer.

What's Going Wrong? Hard to quibble with the offense. They've been maybe a little lucky. Their batting average on balls in play is .313 compared to a league average of .295, and an average well above (or below) the league average are probably a little fluky. But that's about it. Same for the pitchers: that very low home run rate on fly balls probably isn't sustainable. The pitchers also walk more hitters than you'd like, 8.5% of batters over the last 30 days compared to a league average of 7.3%, but they've been able to strand 78% of baserunners, second most in the league, compared to a league average of 73%. That, difference, too, is probably not going to persist.

All this suggests the Angels probably aren't quite as good as they've appeared to be over the past 30 days. That sure beats being bad, of course. 

Who's Hot? Three batters have been hot over the past 30 days. MVP-to-be center fielder Mike Trout is eighth in on base percentage, .392, and fifth in slugging percentage, .593. He's also tied for fourth in the league in homers with seven, first in runs with 28, and tied for seventh in RBI with 27. Shortstop Erick Aybar is batting .356 and second baseman Howie Kendrick has a slash line of .325/.361/.465. Catcher Chris Ianetta has a weird batting line: .212 batting average but .434 on base percentage, best on the club, as he's got twice as many walks and hit by pitches (22) as hits (11).

The Angels haven't missed a beat since ace Garrett RIchards (13-4, 2.61 ERA) suffered a season-ending knee injury on August 20. Over the past 30 days, Mike Shoemaker has gone 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA and Jered Weaver is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. 

At the beginning of the season, Huston Street was the closer for the Padres. The Angels' closer was Ernesto Frieri, who blew up for the Angels (6.39 ERA), then was traded to Pittsburgh (where he was worse: 10.13 ERA before earning his release) for Jason Grilli. Street joined the club on July 19 and has notched more saves (14) in the ensuing eight weeks than Frieri got in three months. Over the past 30 days, he's got five saves and a 1.80 ERA. Setup men Mike Morin and Joe Smith have pitched 23 innings and combined for a 0.78 ERA. 

Who's Not? On offense, no regular's been really bad, though highly-paid first baseman Albert Pujols ($23 million this year, $167 million more guaranteed through 2021, .286/.331/.420 slash line) and left fielder Josh Hamilton ($17 million this year, $89 million more guaranteed through 2017, .250/.294/.417) have been a lot more mortal than their paychecks would suggest. After Shoemaker and Weaver, the starting pitching's been unimpressive over the past 30 days. CJ Wilson and Hector Santiago have a combined 5-2 won-lost record, but that's due to outstanding run support; they have above-average ERAs of 4.22 and 3.97, respectively. 

What's the Outlook? The Angels are looking to October, where they'll appear for the first time since 2009. They have enough pop; the question will be whether they have enough pitching behind Shoemaker and Weaver. If they remain the top team in the league, they'll draw the wild card team, which presumably will have burned its ace in the one-game play-in, so LA will be favorites to advance to face the winner of what looks likely to be a Tigers-Orioles matchup for the American League championship.

What Happens When a Pitch is Thrown: Part 3 - Swing, Batter

So far in this series we've seen that while it's good for pitchers to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes. The difference between pitching a ball into the batter's strike zone and getting the batter to swing at the pitch (or get it called a strike) is largely a function of inducing swings on pitches that aren't in the strike zone. We'll look at that now. 

How often do batters swing at pitches? Batters swung at 46.4% of pitches last year. That compares to 44.7% of pitches that were in the strike zone. Batters swung at 65.5% of pitches in the strike zone and 31.0% of pitches outside the strike zone. Don't those figures strike you as low and high, respectively? But when you think about about, it makes sense. Super-selective hitters let a lot of strikes go by as they wait for something they can hit. Mike Trout and Joe Mauer each swung at fewer than 56% of the strikes they saw, while even the most swing-happy guys have some strikes called on them. As for the outside-the-zone pitches, some pitches just an inch or two out of the strike zone may be to a hitter's liking, while some breaking balls with late movement fool batters as they dart out of the strike zone.

Is there a difference between the leagues? Yes, a slight one. NL pitchers get more swings. Batters facing AL pitchers swung at 46.0% of pitches: 65.0% in the strike zone and 30.7% outside the zone. Batters facing NL pitchers swung at 46.8%: 66.0% in the zone and 31.3% out of it. I thought, "Must be pitchers batting," but pitchers watch a lot of strikes go by. Last year they swung at 46.1% of pitches: 57.4% in the zone and 33.8% out of it. So NL pitchers get more swings outside the strike zone in part because of pitchers flailing away when they bat. But the reason NL pitchers get more swings in the strike zone is due to something else.

Is there a difference between starters and relievers? Relievers get more swings. Starting pitchers got batters to swing at 46.4% of pitches: 65.4% in the strike zone and 30.9% outside the zone. Relievers got swings at 47.7% of pitches: 67.2% in the strike zone and 31.9% outside the zone. Relievers, as I've mentioned earlier, come in and throw gas for an inning or so, so they get more strikeouts, almost one more per nine innings than starters. 

Is there a difference between right-handed and left-handed pitchers? Lefties got batters to swing at 46.3% of their pitches: 65.0% in the strike zone and 31.0% out of the zone. For righties, pitchers got swings 46.5% of the time: 65.7% in the strike zone and 31.0% out. The conclusion here is that left-handed pitchers induced fewer swings on pitches in the strike zone than righties, which means they must've gotten more called strikes. I have no idea why that should be. The difference isn't large, so I'm not going to worry about it.

Does it matter? Let's look at swings in the strike zone and out of the zone. First, in the strike zone. As with the previous entries, I've divided pitchers into then groups: the 10% who got the most swings in the strike zone (Group 1), the next 10% (Group 2), the next 10% (Group 3), etc. I looked at how the groups compared in ERA, WHIP (walks and hits per inning), and percentage of batters struck out, walked, or allowed a home run:
   Group ERA  WHIP   %K    %BB   %HR
     1  4.03  1.33  19.8   8.3   2.7
     2  3.45  1.22  20.7   7.4   2.4
     3  4.14  1.31  19.8   7.7   2.9
     4  4.18  1.36  18.1   7.7   2.6
     5  3.59  1.25  19.9   7.3   2.3
     6  3.87  1.30  18.6   7.7   2.6
     7  3.66  1.29  19.6   7.9   2.2
     8  4.11  1.32  20.2   7.9   2.6
     9  3.76  1.29  20.2   7.9   2.4
    10  3.92  1.34  21.9   9.5   2.5
Do you see a pattern there? I don't. I think we can safely say that getting batters to swing at pitches in the strike zone isn't correlated to pitching success.

How about pitches outside the strike zone? That's a different story completely:

   Group ERA  WHIP   %K    %BB   %HR
     1  3.20  1.13  22.0   5.8   2.3
     2  3.44  1.22  21.5   7.2   2.4
     3  3.67  1.25  20.6   6.9   2.5
     4  3.83  1.27  20.6   7.4   2.4
     5  3.73  1.27  19.8   7.3   2.4
     6  4.00  1.29  20.3   7.8   2.9
     7  3.85  1.31  19.3   8.4   2.4
     8  4.15  1.36  18.4   8.3   2.8
     9  4.44  1.47  17.2   9.6   2.5
    10  4.49  1.47  18.6  10.7   2.6
This is almost as dramatic as the impact of getting strikes, detailed in the last post: The pitchers who got the top 10% of strikes had an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.10. Group 10 had an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.55. It's the same pattern for pitchers who get batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. The best pitchers get the most strikes, and they get strikes in part because they throw pitches in the strike zone but also, at least as importantly, because the get batters to swing at pitches outside the zone.

I looked at pitchers who do one well but not the other. First, pitchers who were in the top 30% of throwing pitches in the strike zone but the bottom 30% of getting swings outside the zone. The numbers are:
              ERA  WHIP   %K    %BB   %HR
             4.14  1.36  18.8   8.3   2.9
     Average 3.87  1.30  19.9   7.9   2.5

(Average is the major league average last season.)

Now, pitchers who were in the top 30% of getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone but the bottom 30% of throwing pitches in the zone. The numbers for them are:

              ERA  WHIP   %K    %BB   %HR

             3.55  1.25  20.1   7.6   2.2

     Average 3.87  1.30  19.9   7.9   2.5

I wasn't expecting that. Pitchers who are good at throwing pitches in the strike zone but bad at getting batters to swing at pitches outside the zone are below-average pitchers. Pitchers who are bad at throwing pitches in the strike zone but good at getting batters to swing at pitches outside the zone are above-average pitchers. Pitchers in the former group include Rockies starters Jhoulys Chacin and Juan Nicasio, Yankees closer-in-waiting David Robertson, free agent innings eater Bronson Arroyo, and Dodgers washout Brandon League. Pitchers in the latter group include Angels starter Jered Weaver, Yankee starter Hiroki Kuroda, Pirate ace Francisco Liriano, and several top closers, indluding Jason Grilli, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, and Sergio Romo. 

What We Know So Far: The best pitchers get the most strikes, in part because they throw pitches in the strike zone but also, more importantly, because the get batters to swing at pitches outside the zone.

Next, we'll see whether these rules apply to hitters as well.

Vin Mazzaro: A Good Reason to Pull for the Pirates

Yet another Pirates bullpen post (beats A-Rod, right?)...

When I wrote about Monday night's game, during which Jason Grilli got hurt, the Pirates brought in Vin Mazzaro for the last out, earning the first save of his five year career.

I am a big Vin Mazzaro fan. He was drafted by the A's out of high school in Hackensack, NJ in 2005. After posting 5+ ERAs in his first two minor league seasons, he had a big year at AA Midland in 2008 (12-3, 1.90 ERA over 22 starts) and spent most of 2009 and 2010 with Oakland, starting 35 games 4.72 ERA. He was traded to the Royals in November 2010. He was expected to be the team's fifth starter, but after a lousy spring and a lousier start of the year in AAA Omaha, he stayed in the minors until May. He was called up for a start against the Yankees on May 11 (4 innings, 2 runs and a no-decision in a game the Royals won 4-3). He then sat until May 16, at home against the Indians.

Kyle Davies started the game for the Royals but left with an injury after getting just one out and walking the bases full. Nathan Adcock came in, allowed two of Davies' runners to score, and another run in the second. He left in the third inning after the leadoff runner got on base. He was replaced by Vin Mazzaro, in his second game as a Royal.

Mazzaro pitched two and a third innings. He struck out two, but walked three and gave up 11 hits, one a homer, and was charged with 14 runs. The Royals lost, 19-1.

Now, giving up 14 runs in a game isn't unheard of. Nineteen pitchers since 1916 (that's how far back game data go) have given up 14 or more earned runs in a game. But most of those guys pitched in the early part of the 20th century, when relief pitchers were rare. Since World War II, only four pitchers matched Mazzaro's 14. And Mazzaro is the only pitcher to have given up 14 runs in fewer than three innings. 

Here's the thing: I was at the game. I remember it for two things. One was a group of young Korean-American girls who ran down to the railing of the upper deck where I was sitting to snap pictures every time Shin-Soo Choo came to the plate for the Indians. The other was wondering why Ned Yost left Mazzaro in to take that pounding. It's not like the bullpen was depleted that Monday; the Royals didn't play Sunday, they got a complete game Saturday, and they used two relievers for two innings Friday. It just seemed gratuitous.

Then, the next day, the Royals sent him back to Omaha. With his 22.74 ERA. I remember sportswriters suggesting that we'd seen the last of Vin Mazzaro.

We hadn't. He pitched again for the Royals in June and September, compiling a 4.09 ERA over five games and 22 innings. Last year he also split time between Kansas City and Omaha, with a 5.73 ERA in 44 innings, spread over 18 games. The last nine games were in September, exclusively in relief, and his ERA of 4.63 in those appearances consisted of two games in which he allowed three runs each and seven games in which he allowed none.

That was good enough for the Pirates, who recently have had an uncanny ability with pitching reclamation projects (A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Joel Hanrahan, and, of course, injured closer Jason Grilli, who had five saves in ten seasons before this year). They traded for Mazzaro in November. In 33 appearances this year, he's 5-2 with that one save, and career bests for ERA (2.62), WHIP (1.14), strikeouts per nine (6.0), walks per nine (2.0), home runs per nine (0.6), strikeouts to walks (3.0), groundballs per fly ball (1.02)--pretty much everything good.

Not bad for a guy who had what one writer called The Worst Pitching Performance Ever. And certainly the worst one I saw.