Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Earlier this week, I addressed concerns that the Pirates can't win against teams with a winning record. It's true that they have a losing record against teams playing .500 or better. But so do most teams. In fact, the Pirates are now sixth in the league in winning percentage against .500 or better teams. But here's another issue, as they enter play against the 35-38 Atlanta Braves: They haven't played a lot of games against good teams. The Cardinals have played 38 games against teams at .500 or better, 34 against teams with losing records. The Cubs have played 38 games against better teams, 33 against those with losing records. For the Pirates, the split is 30/42. I'll do a strength-of-schedule post sometime later, but the team is going to face some tougher competition as the season moves forward.

How Are They Doing Lately? Not great. They're 13-15 over the last 30 days. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, fifth in the league, and allowed 4.4 per game, the fifth most. So the problem's been pitching more than hitting. They lost two of three to the Pirates earlier this month, and the three games this weekend are the last time the two clubs will meet this season. 

What's Going Right? The Braves are batting .268, third in the league over the last 30 days, and they're second in on base percentage, .327. So they've been getting on base a lot. The starters have a good ERA, 3.54, fifth best in the league, but with the lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-highest walk rate. No team's starters have kept the ball in the strike zone more than the Braves (53% of pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days), but they're not fooling batters with pitches outside the strike zone, as batters have swung at less than 29% of pitches outside the zone, second fewest in the league. 

What's Going Wrong? The team's slugging .367 over the last 30 days, third worst in the league. They've hit only 16 homers, tied for fewest in the league, and 43 doubles, tied for the fifth fewest. They lead the league in singles over the last 30 days, with 201, 19 more than the second-place Pirates. So the Braves have hit a lot of singles but lack power, and that's limited their ability to score. The bullpen's been a weakness all season, and the 4.44 relievers' ERA over the past 30 days is the third worst in the league.

Who's Hot? The Pirates won't face the Braves' best starter, Shelby Miller (2.65 ERA over the past 30 days), but the three they will face have been pretty good: Williams Perez (2.32 ERA, but walking nearly a batter every other inning), Julio Teheran (4.28 ERA but a gem in his last start, seven one-hit innings against the Mets) and Alex Wood (2.97 ERA). Closer and former Pirate Jason Grilli has a 0.75 ERA and seven saves over the last 30 days and reclamation project Jim Johnson (7.09 ERA last year with two teams) has a 2.77 ERA and two saves. Rookie second baseman Jace Peterson and center fielder Cameron Maybin have been a solid one-two punch at the top of the lineup, with on base percentages of .373 and .367, respectively. Shortstop and fielding wizard Andrelton Simmons has batted .320 with a .371 on base percentage over the past 30 days, albeit with only three extra-base hits.

Who's Not? Take away Grilli and Johnson and the Braves bullpen has a 5.76 ERA. The Braves' best hitter, Freddie Freeman, just hit the disabled list, and he accounted for seven of the club's sixteen homers over the past 30 days. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski has a .286 on base percentage over the last 30 days, and the team's had a sinkhole in left field all year. 

What's the Outlook? I said this the last time the teams met, and I'll say it again: The key for the Pirates will be to get to the Braves' starters early to get at the middle relief underbelly of the Braves' bullpen and keep the ball out of their former teammate Grilli's hand.

Next Up: The Atlanta Braves

Sweeping the Giants at AT&T Park...didn't see that coming. Going into the series, as I noted, the Giants had the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games. Now, the team with the best record in the National League over the prior 30 games is...the Pittsburgh Pirates.

How Are They Doing Lately? Over the past 30 days, there have been four pretty good teams in the National League: the Pirates (17-10), Nationals (16-10), Cardinals, and Giants (both 16-12). There have been four pretty bad teams: the Marlins (9-18), Brewers (10-17, Reds (10-16), and Phillies (11-16). Everybody else is between 13-15 and 15-12. That includes the Braves, 13-13. They've scored 4.1 runs per game, seventh in the league. They've given up 4.3, which is ninth. They're pretty much .500 at everything.

What's Going Right? The offense hasn't been anything special, but over the past 30 days, the Braves have the been the fifth-toughest team to fan, they're tied for fifth with 17 stolen bases, and they've succeeded in 77% of their stolen base attempts, the second-best percentage in the league. The starters' 3.83 ERA is the fifth best in the league over the past 30 days.

What's Going Wrong? The bullpen's got a 5.45 ERA over the past 30 days, easily the worst in the league. The starters have gotten only the eighth-most strikeouts while allowing the fourth-most walks, suggesting that their recent success may not last. The problem on offense has been power: the Braves have 12 homers over the past 30 days, last in the National League, and they and the Padres (17) are the only teams with fewer than 22 homers. 

Who's Hot? Freddie Freeman's bat has carried the offense over the past 30 days: .297/.360/.515 slash line, leading the club in homers (5) and RBI (19). Nick Markakis leads the team in batting average (.320) and on base percentage (.398) and is second in slugging percentage (.430), a function of his team-leading 21 singles and 11 doubles. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, as usual, provides highlights-reel defense. Starters Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, and Williams Perez have combined for a 5-1 record and 1.80 ERA with two home runs allowed over the past 30 days. The team's two primary setup relievers, Jim Johnson and Luis Avilan, have ERAs of 2.38 and 0.93, respectively, over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? Catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Christian Bethancourt have matching .182 batting averages over the past 30 days. Left fielder Jonny Gomes has a .208/.235/.271 slash line. Alberto Callaspo and his .150/.255/.150 slash line held down third for much of the past 30 days, but he's been traded, with Juan Uribe and Chris Johnson taking over. The starters not named Miller, Perez, or Wood have a 5.87 ERA over the past 30 days.

The facile explanation of the bullpen's struggles is the departure, via a season-opening trade, of closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego. The Braves' new closer, former Pirate Jason Grilli, hasn't dominated over the past 30 days--4.32 ERA, 4.3 walks per nine innings, .417 batting average on balls in play--but he's 7-for-7 in saves. Kimbrel's been unremarkable over the same period: 3.86 ERA, 3.9 walks per nine, .409 batting average on balls in play, 4-for-5 in saves. So the problem's not Kimbrel's absence. Rather, it's been the bullpen other than Grilli, Johnson, and Avilan: the other Braves relievers have combined for a 7.85 ERA.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates draw two of the Braves' hot starters, Perez and Wood, followed by the inconsistent Julio Teheran (1.08 ERA in his four wins, 7.50 ERA in his two losses and five no-decisions). I wasn't expecting a sweep in San Francisco, and I'm not expecting one in Atlanta, either. The key, it seems to me, will be getting to the Braves' starters early in order to get to the weak middle of the Atlanta bullpen.

Reality Check: The Gold Glove Awards

On November 8, I received my 2015 edition of The Bill James Handbook. I wrote a lot about the Handbook last winter, and I will again this year. It's a fun book. I'll find myself going through it, looking at the pages, all the way until the 2016 edition's delivered next November. It contains career records for every player who appeared in a major league game in 2014 as well as all sorts of features on pitching, managing, fielding, hitting, and baserunning. Want to see how much Phillies starter Cole Hamel's fastball slowed down last year? (It didn't; he's been around 90-91 mph each of the past eight years.) Wondered who got thrown out trying to take an extra base most frequently? (The Dodgers' Yasiel Puig, which isn't a surprise, and the Brewers' Carlos Gomez, which sort of is; both with nine.) Which AL manager called the most sacrifice bunts? (Trick question; the Royals' Ned Yost has a reputation for being bunt-happy, but he trailed Cleveland's Terry Francona, Tampa's Joe Maddon, Baltimore's Buck Showalter, Toronto's John Gibbons, and Seattle's Lloyd McClendon.) You can order it here or at your preferred book retailer. I really like it.


The first thing I do every year when I get the Bill James Handbook is check out the Fielding Bible Awards. These are fielding awards voted by a panel of twelve baseball experts. You've heard of several of them, probably: Bill James, ESPN analyst Doug Glanville, MLB Network host Brian Kenney, sportswriter Peter Gammons. The voters receive data from John Dewan's Baseball Info Solutions, which compiles and distributes baseball statistics to teams and consumers, to help them make their decisions. The two key differences between the Fielding Bible Awards and the Gold Glove Awards is that the former are voted by baseball experts who use statistics, while the latter are voted by managers and coaches. I like to compare how the more empirical vote does compared to the more intuitive one. The stats vs. scouts storyline is a false dichotomy, and the Gold Glove voting includes a statistical component, but I always look to see how the Gold Glove winners do in the Fielding Bible voting to get a read on how the much the two views of the game are diverging.

There is one Fielding Bible Award per position, while the Gold Gloves are awarded to a player in each league. Here's the rundown:

FIRST BASE: Adrian Gonzalez of the Dodgers won the Fielding Bible Award. The Gold Gloves went to Gonzalez in the NL and Kansas City's Eric Hosmer in the AL. Hosmer finished in a three-way tie for twelfth in the Fielding Bible vote. He was tied for sixth in the American League, which was led by the Angels' Albert Pujols, so there was a pretty big disagreement there.

SECOND BASE: Boston's Dustin Pedroia won the Fielding Bible Award and the Gold Glove, with the NL Gold Glove going to the Rockies' D.J. LeMahieu. LeMahieu was the top National League vote-getter in the Fielding Bible balloting, so there's no disagreement here.

THIRD BASE: Oakland's Josh Donaldson won the Fielding Bible Award, edging out Colorado's Nolan Arenado, who was the top National League vote-getter for the second straight time. The Gold Gloves went to Arenado and Seattle's Kyle Seager. Seager was ninth in the Fielding Bible voting, behind Donaldson, Chase Headley (who split his season between the Padres and Yankees), Texas' Adrian Beltre, and Baltimore's Manny Machado among American Leaguers. 

SHORTSTOP: Brave sensation Andrelton Simmons was a unanimous Fielding Bible Award winner for the second year in a row, and he took the Gold Glove too. Baltimore's J.J. Hardy won the AL Gold Glove and was the top American League shortstop in the Fielding Bible voting. No controversy.

LEFT FIELD: The Royals' Alex Gordon was a unanimous Fielding Bible winner, besting the Marlins' Christian Yelich. They won the Gold Gloves too. No disagreement.

CENTER FIELD: Juan Lagares of the Mets got all but one first-place vote to win the Fielding Bible Award. He won a Gold Glove, along with the Orioles' Adam Jones. Jones is probably the one player for whom the analysts and the managers have the widest disagreement. He has a strong arm and he can go over the fence to rob a homer, but he's well below average at getting to balls. He finished behind six American League center fielders, led by Boston's Jackie Bradley, in the Fielding Bible vote, en route to a 13th place finish overall. Big continuing dispute here. 

RIGHT FIELD: The Braves' Jayson Heyward was a unanimous Fielding Bible winner and he took the National League Gold Glove too. He's now a Cardinal. In the American League, there was another Oriole-related difference, as Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier was first, followed by Oakland's Josh Reddick and Boston's Daniel Nava, ahead of Baltimore's Gold Glove winner, Nick Markakis. 

CATCHER: Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers barely edged out the Pirates' (now Blue Jays') Russell Martin, who in turn was just a bit ahead of the Cardinals' Yadier Molina in the Fielding Bible vote. Molina won the Gold Glove, as did the Royals' Salvador Perez, who was the top-rated AL catcher per Fielding Bible. Close enough.

PITCHER: I've always been skeptical of fielding awards for pitchers because the sample sizes are so small. The Fielding Bible Award went to Houston's Dallas Keuchel, who also won the Gold Glove. The NL Gold Glove went to the Dodgers' Zach Greinke, who was third, behind the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw and the Marlins' Henderson Alvarez in the Fielding Bible vote. 

So that wasn't all that controversial, was it? There was a big disagreement between the Fielding Bible votes and the Gold Glove voters for the AL center field and first base awards, and a smaller disagreement over third base and right field in the American League. But that's pretty much it. Every Fielding Bible award winner got a Gold Glove other than Lucroy and Donaldson. 

It wasn't always this way. What this is saying is that the empirical view and the intuitive view are getting closer together. I'll leave it to you to figure out who's influencing whom.

Flyover: Atlanta Braves

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Atlanta Braves are currently 69-64, 11-16 over the past 30 days. They are second in the National League East, 6.5 games behind Washington, and 1.5 games out of the second National League wild card slot, tied with Pittsburgh.

How Are They Doing? The Braves won the division last year but after losing catcher Brian McCann to free agency and starting pitchers Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy to Tommy John surgery, a lot of observers (including On The Field of Play) figured they were a second-place team this year. They spent most of the year in first but relinquished the lead on July 21 and have been second to the Nationals ever since. They're tied with the Mets for the fourth-worst record in the league over the past 30 days. The pitching hasn't been bad, allowing the fifth-fewest runs in the league in the past month, but they've scored only 94 runs of late. Only the Diamondbacks have scored fewer. 

What's Going RIght? The starting pitchers have been decent, with a 3.51 ERA over the past month, sixth-best in the league. However, their peripheral stats aren't as impressive: fifth-fewest percentage of batters struck out, fifth-highest percentage of batters walked, middle of the pack in terms of both throwing strikes and getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. The bullpen's also had a low strikeout rate and high walk rate. All this suggests that the pitchers have probably been a little bit lucky. 

The offense hasn't been good, but it hasn't been terrible. They've walked in 8.8% of plate appearances, fourth-best in the league, helping Braves batters draw 3.9 pitches per plate appearance, second-most in the league, wearing down opposing pitchers. Braves hitters haven't been hitting a lot of fly balls (31% of batted balls, third-fewest in the league) but when they do, 10.7% go over the fence, the fifth most.

What's Going Wrong? It's hard to score a lot runs when you strike out in 24% of your plate appearances, as the Braves have over the past 30 games. Their .244 batting average is fifth-worst, .314 on-base percentage sixth-worst, and .365 slugging percentage fourth-worst. Their home field, Turner Field, favors pitchers, but only slightly. The offense really has been bad. As for the pitchers, as noted above, the starters haven't struck out a lot of batters and have walked a lot. Based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, Braves starters have been fourth-worst in the league, belying their sixth-best 3.51 ERA.

Who's Hot? The starting pitchers, other than Aaron Harang (1-2, 4.62 ERA) have been decent, though as alluded to above, every one of them has an ERA that is probably a little lower than it ought to be, given their strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Closer Craig Kimbrel has seven saves and has allowed only five hits in 9.1 innings. Middle relievers David Carpenter, Jordan Walden, and James Russell have pitched 33.2 inning, striking out 29, allowing just 29 baserunners, and compiling a 2.41 ERA.

Left fielder Justin Upton (.313/.402/.606 slash line), first baseman Freddie Freeman (.330/.442/.510), right fielder Jason Heyward (.311/.360/.444), and second baseman Phil Gosselin (.311/.340/.400 in limited play) have all been really good. Upton's hit 7 homers (tied for fourth in the league) and driven in 28 runs (tied for first), and his slugging percentage is third best. With four hitters that good, how can the Braves have a bad offense? Keep reading.

Who's Not? Other than the four batters listed above, the rest of the lineup has been terrible. Catcher Evan Gattis is hitting .227 and has a 29-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 95 plate appearances. Were he striking out and walking at league-average rates--and remember, this is the league in which pitchers bat--he'd have 20 whiffs and 7 walks. Gosselin's playing because second baseman Tommy LaStella has turned into a pumpkin with a .225 batting average. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons remains astonishingly good in the field, but he's batting only .212. Third baseman Chris Johnson has an OK .250 batting average but over the past month he's gotten only six walks and six extra-base hits, making his batting average empty, not backed up by on-base skills or power. And then there's center fielder BJ Upton, to whom I alluded in the last Trailing 30 report. He's got a .135/.264/.243 slash line over the last 30 games, and has struck out in 34% of his plate appearances. There has been speculation that the Braves might drop him--he's hit .195 in two seasons in Atlanta--but that would mean the Braves would have to eat the remainder of the $13.45 million he's owed this year. And the $14.45 million he's owed next year. And the $15.45 million he's owed in 2016. And the $16.45 million he's owed in 2017. You get the picture. 

As for the pitchers, Kimbrel has struck out "only" ten batters in his 9.1 innings over the past month (his season rate is 14.5 per nine innings) and he's walked seven, none intentionally. He's gotten 45% of his pitches in the strike zone compared to a season average of 49%, possibly indicating a loss of command. Among the starters, Alex Wood (.236), Julio Teheran (.254), and Mike Minor (.247) have given up batting averages on balls in play way below the league average of .292, suggesting that they may have been a little lucky. 

What's the Outlook? It's probably not realistic to expect the Braves to defend their divisional title unless the Nationals collapse. They're still in the hunt for the wild card, though. In order to make it, the starters will need to remain strong, Kimbrel will have to remain unhittable, and somebody other than Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward to generate offense. That may be a bit much to ask for.

Sweet Play of the Day - August 27

Another day, another Andrelton Simmons highlight. This play is similar to the jump throw that was Derek Jeter's specialty. (Two terms you won't see me use in a baseball context: trademark and patented. Derek Jeter did a a jump throw a lot. He was good at it. He's famous for it. But it's not a move, as some sportswriters would say, that he trademarked. Nor is it his patented move. That would require, you know, a trademark or a patent. I know I'm being literal, but calling it his trademarked jump throw, or his patented jump throw, is just lazy journalism, implying that he's the first one who did it or was the best at it. This play by Simmons exhibits not only a great arm but also range that Jeter could only dream of.)

Sweet Play of the Day - July 28

Watch this one carefully. It's a routine chopper to short, but it takes a crazy bounce. That's why Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons had to do this:

Sweet Play of the Day: July 21

I can tell that I haven't been diligent in keeping up with this feature when this is the first time all year I've featured the Braves' shortstop maestro, Andrelton Simmons.

The Offseason Gets More Tolerable

Today, just two days after the Series ended, I received this in the mail:

The Bill James Handbook is full of stats on the 2013 season: Career records for every player who appeared in a major league game as well as all sorts of features on pitching, managing, fielding, baserunning...it's really a fun book, and I'll pull out some excerpts over the next few weeks.

Oh, and you can order it here. You should. It's a lot of fun.

The first thing I do every year when I get the Bill James Handbook is check out the Fielding Bible Awards. These are fielding awards voted by a panel of twelve baseball experts. You've heard of several of them, probably: Bill James, ESPN analyst Doug Glanville, MLB Network host Brian Kenney, sportswriter Peter Gammons. The voters receive data from John Dewan's Baseball Info Solutions, which compiles and distributes baseball statistics to teams and consumers, to help them make their decisions. The two key differences between the Fielding Bible Awards and the Gold Glove Awards is that the former are voted by baseball experts who use statistics, while the latter are voted by managers and coaches. I like to compare how the more empirical vote does compared to the more intuitive one. The stats vs. scouts storyline is a false dichotomy, and the Gold Gloves include a statistical component, but I always like to see how the Gold Glove winners do in the Fielding Bible voting to get a read on how the much the two views of the game are diverging.

There is one Fielding Bible Award per position, while the Gold Gloves are awarded to a player in each league. Here's the rundown:

FIRST BASE: Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks won the Fielding Bible Award. The Gold Gloves went to Goldschmidt in the NL and Kansas City's Eric Hosmer in the AL. Hosmer finished seventh in the Fielding Bible vote, but was second in the AL to Mike Napoli (!) of the Red Sox, so we'll say the two awards agreed.

SECOND BASE: Boston's Dustin Pedroia won the Fielding Bible Award, getting 11 of 12 first place votes. He also got the AL Gold Glove. The Reds' Brandon Phillips took it in the NL. Phillips was fifth overall and third in the NL in the Fielding Bible vote, behind the Cubs' Darwin Barney and the Dodgers' Mark Ellis. It wasn't all that close between the Barney (7 seconds, 3 thirds, a fourth and fifth) and Phillips (one first, one third, everything else fourth or lower, and not named on Gammons' ballot). Let's call this one a disagreement along the lines of the typical complaint about Gold Gloves: the award went to the better hitter who makes some eye-popping plays but may not be as reliable overall.

THIRD BASE: No surprise that Oriole Manny Machado won the Fielding Bible Award unanimously. Rockies rookie Nolan Arenado was second. They won the Gold Gloves. No disagreement here.

SHORTSTOP: Brave sensation Andrelton Simmons was a unanimous Fielding Bible Award winner, and he took the Gold Glove too. J.J. Hardy won the AL Gold Glove, but he ranked behind the Rangers' Elvis Andrus, the Twins' Pedro Florimon, and the Royals' Alcides Escobar in his league. Hardy tied Troy Tulowitzki for homers by shortstops, and one of the complaints about the Gold Glove is that it goes to guys who hit well...I'm calling this a dispute.

LEFT FIELD: The Royals' Alex Gordon tied with the Pirates' Starling Marte and won the Fielding Bible Award on a tiebreaker. The Gold Gloves went to Gordon and the Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez. Cargo finished third in the Fielding Bible vote. We'll call this one an agreement, but barely.

CENTER FIELD: The Brewers' Carlos Gomez got all but one first-place vote to win the Fielding Bible Award. He won a Gold Glove, along with the Orioles' Adam Jones. This is the one case where there was a wide disagreement between the voters. Jones received almost no support among the Fielding Bible voters; there were ten American League centerfielders who got a higher vote. The knock on Jones has always been that he's got a cannon for an arm and he can go over the fence to rob a homer, but he just doesn't get to as many balls as he should. Big dispute here. 

RIGHT FIELD: The Diamondbacks' Gerardo Parra got all but one first place vote in capturing the Fielding Bible Award, and he won the Gold Glove too. Boston's Shane Victorino was second, and he was the AL Gold Glove. No disagreement.

CATCHER: Yadier Molina of the Cardinals was the Fielding Bible Award winner, edging out the Pirates' Russell Martin and the Royals' Salvador Perez in a close vote. The Gold Gloves went to Molina and Perez. Complete agreement.

PITCHER: I've always been skeptical of fielding awards for pitchers because the sample sizes are so small. Kyle Kendrick led the majors in pitchers' assists with 43. Andrelton Simmons got more assists every two weeks or so. Anyway, the Fielding Bible Award went to R.A. Dickey, who won a Gold Glove. The NL Gold Glove went to Adam Wainwright, who finished only seventh in the Fielding Bible voting. I suppose you could call this a dispute, but with pitchers, I'm disinclined.

So that wasn't all that controversial, was it? There was a big disagreement between the Fielding Bible votes and the Gold Glove voters for the AL center field award, and a smaller disagreement over AL shortstop and NL second baseman. Kind of a disagreement over NL left fielder. But that's it. Every Fielding Bible award winner got a Gold Glove. 

It wasn't always this way. What this is saying is that the empirical view and the intuitive view are getting closer together. I'll leave it to you to figure out who's influencing whom.