Qualifying Offers, 2015

I'm going to update my post on this topic from last year. It explains this topic, which comes up every year at this time.

So, what's a Qualifying Offer? It's a one-year contract offer teams can make to their players who have filed for free agency. This year, a qualifying offer is $15.8 million for the 2016 season.

Why would teams offer that much money for one year? Two reasons. First, the best free agents are worth at least that much. Second, and more importantly, if the player rejects the qualifying offer, the team offering it gets compensation, and the team signing the player gets a penalty.

What's the compensation? If a team offers a player a qualifying offer and the player rejects it, the team gets an extra draft pick between the first round and second rounds of the amateur draft in June. The extra picks (called "sandwich picks") are allocated in reverse order of standing during the prior season.

What's the penalty? A team signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer forfeits its first draft choice in the June amateur draft. One exception: The first ten picks in the draft are "protected" and don't get forfeited. The teams with the worst ten records last season--the Phillies, Reds, Braves, A's, Rockies, Brewers, Marlins, Padres, Tigers and Mariners--won't lose their first round draft choice if they sign a player who received a qualifying offer. Instead, they'll give up their second-highest round draft pick instead. If a team signs more than one player who received a qualifying offer, it'll give up its next-highest draft pick. 

How onerous is that penalty? It depends on the player. The Nationals didn't think about the penalty when they signed Max Scherzer, arguably the best player in last year's free agent class. Losing a draft pick won't stop a team from pursuing a big star like Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke or Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward. At the lower end of players receiving qualifying offers, though, relinquishing a draft pick can result in teams being unwilling to sign a player. After the 2013 season, former Mariners DH Kendrys Morales and former Red Sox shortstop Stephen Drew received and rejected qualifying offers and couldn't find anyone to take them. Drew eventually re-signed with the Red Sox in May (there are not penalties or compensation when a free agent re-signs with his original team), and Morales signed with the Twins on June 8 (after the amateur draft, so there was no penalty). Both those players were pretty obviously screwed out of money by the draft pick penalty.

Why is there a penalty? In part it's because baseball wants to compensate teams that lose star players to free agency. But let's be clear: The sandwich pick that the teams receive for losing a player to whom they made a qualifying offer is their compensation. The loss of a draft pick only hurts the signing team. It doesn't help the team losing the player. By penalizing the signing team, it hurts the player, because it reduces his value. It ultimately serves to reduce free agent compensation.

How did they come up with the $15.8 million figure? It's the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball. It gets recalculated every year. Last year it was $15.3 million, the year before $14.1 million.

Are there problems with the system? CJ Nitkowski wrote a nice piece describing them last year. The most glaring are how they screw players at the bottom of the spectrum. There's also a huge loophole: Players who are traded during the last year of their contract aren't subject to qualifying offers or compensation. They include Blue Jays pitcher David Price, Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Royals pitcher Johnny Cueto and infielder-outfielder Ben Zobrist, Giants pitcher Mike Leake, and Astros pitcher Scott Kazmir. The two top pitchers in this year's free agent class are Price and Greinke. By virtue of being traded last year from Detroit to Toronto, the team signing Price avoids a draft pick penalty that the team signing Greinke will have to pay.

How often do players accept qualifying offers? It hasn't happened yet. Every player who's received a qualifying offer has rejected it since the system was implemented in 2012. That could change this year, as there were a record 20 players who received qualifying offers compared to twelve last year and thirteen the year before. It would appear that Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy, who was 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA last year and 29-38 with a 4.25 ERA over the past three years, is a candidate to accept a qualifying offer. However, a lot of analysts expect nobody to accept a qualifying offer, given players' preference for multi-year contracts rather than a one-year deal, even for $15.8 million.

Who's received qualifying offers? The twenty players are, by team:

• Baltimore pitcher Wei-Yin Chen, first baseman Chris Davis, and catcher Matt Wieters
• Chicago Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler
• Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija
• Houston outfielder Colby Rasmus
• Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon
• Los Angeles pitchers Zack Greinke and Brett Anderson and second baseman Howie Kendrick
• New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy
• St. Louis right fielder Jason Heyward and pitcher John Lackey
• San Diego pitcher Ian Kennedy and left fielder Justin Upton
• Seattle pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma
• Texas pitcher Yovani Gallardo
• Toronto pitcher Marco Estrada
• Washington shortstop Ian Desmond and pitcher Jordan Zimmermann

When do the players have to let the team know? The players who received qualifying offers were notified last Friday and they have a week to respond. So by the end of business on Friday, November 13, they have to make a decision.

What happens if they reject the offer? They become free agents, able to sign with any team (subject to the compensation for their former team and penalty for their signing team) described above.

Are the parties happy with the system? Players understandably don't like any system that reduces their value, and attaching a penalty to signing a player reduces their value. Owners like getting compensated for losing players. So that's the impasse, and the qualifying offer system is the latest attempt to bridge it. I expect the qualifying offer system to be modified the next time the players and owners negotiate their collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA runs through December 1, 2016.

Pirates At the Trade Deadline

UPDATE, JULY 23: The Pirates have traded for Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

Friday, July 31 is Major League Baseball's trade deadline. That's not really true: It's the non-waiver trade deadline. After the 31st, teams can still trade (and they will), but traded player must clear waivers first.* So while there will still be trades after next Friday, there won't be as many, and they won't involve as many stars.

Every fan of a team with a hope of making the postseason wishes their team would make a trade by the deadline. The problem is, fans are usually unrealistic. I heard a Mets fan express hope that the Mets, who are starved for offense, would pursue Padres left fielder Justin Upton, who's a free agent after this season. The fan suggested the Mets could offer Jon Niese (who's arguably the team's No. 5 starter), Rafael Montero (who hasn't pitched since April due to a rotator cuff injury), Zack Wheeler (out for the year following Tommy John surgery), and Bartolo Colon (who is 42 and has a 6.00 ERA over his last ten starts). If you want a top player who's signed for a few years--say, Phillies starter Cole Hamels--you're going to have to give up top prospects or major league-ready farm talent. Even if you want a two-month rental, like Upton, the Padres have the option of keeping him, giving him a qualifying offer over the winter and, when he signs with another club, getting a draft pick after the first round next summer for him. So unless you're going to offer at least the equivalent of a second-round draft pick, you're not going to make a deal. If the Mets call the Padres and offer a No. 5 starter, a 42-year-old, and a couple injured guys to the Padres for Upton, the Padres are going to hang up the phone on them.

With that in mind, it's tough to do trades at this point in the season. The buyers are looking for the one or two players that can push them into the postseason or improve their chances of success when they're there. There aren't that many players like that around. Sellers are looking for a king's ransom of prospects. Teams aren't willing to give them up. So don't expect a flurry of deals.

For the Pirates, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to pursue pitching. Sure, Hamels or the White Sox's Jeff Samardzija or the Reds' Johnny Cueto would be great to have, but the latter two are free agents after the season, and besides, the Pirates are in good shape in their rotation. Any of those three pitchers would be an upgrade over Charlie Morton or Jeff Locke, but the Pirates are well-positioned to make the postseason with the rotation they have now. In the postseason, you need an ace (Gerrit Cole) to pitch a Wild Card game, but you really need only four starters anyway because of all the off days. I just don't see a lot of upside for the Bucs from adding a frontline starter.

Similarly, the Pirates' bullpen, with the second lowest ERA in the National League, isn't a source of weakness. I could see the merit of adding someone to give some of the relievers a breather--the Pirates have four of the 22 pitchers in the league with 43 or more appearances, the most in the league--but as I've pointed out, the relievers' pitch counts aren't particularly worrisome. I'd say that unless there's an injury we don't know about, the Pirates don't have a big need to add significant pitching help. The Phillies would like to trade closer Jonathan Papelbon, and Jonathan Papelbon would like to leave Philadelphia, but he's not the type of player the Pirates seem to need.

As I pointed out over the All-Star Break, the Pirates are very good at four positions (catcher, second base, left field, center field), OK at one (third base), and bad at three (first base, shortstop, right field). Let's look at the weaknesses:

• Shortstop: Jordy Mercer, probably out until September with a sprained knee, was having a lousy year, but that's mostly due to a terrible start:  .171/.225/.198 slash line through May 23. Since then, he's hit a respectable .290/.333/.395. I expect the Pirates to make do with Jung Ho Kang's bat and Pedro Florimon's glove at short until Mercer's healthy rather than pursue a trade.
• Right field: Yesterday, the Padres optioned third baseman Will Middlebrooks to AAA. Middlebrooks, you may recall, was a sensation when he was called up by the Red Sox in 2012. In 24 games in May that year, he batted .316 with six homers. In 23 games in June, he hit .288 with four homers, and in 18 July starts, he hit .294 with another three homers. So in his first three months, he had a .301/.331/.525 slash line, hitting a home run every 18 at bats. Since then, he's batted .212/.259/.364, with a homer every 28 at bats. It's looking a lot as if those first 236 at bats were a head fake, with the real Middlebrooks emerging in the 849 at bats since. That's the risk of reading too much into a young player's hot start.

The reason I'm telling you this about Middlebrooks is that Gregory Polanco started his career batting .306/.392/.435 over his first 21 games with a home run every 28 at bats. Since then, he's hit .227/.299/.329 with a homer every 73 at bats. His OPS of .628 since his hot start is similar to Middlebrooks's .625. So what do we believe, Polanco's first 85 at bats or the 516 since?

The Pirates could definitely seek an upgrade over Polanco, but there are two problems. First, he's not exactly like Middlebrooks. He was a year younger than Middlebrooks in his rookie year, and a more highly-touted prospect. He's a decent, if sometimes erratic, right fielder, while Middlebrooks is, depending on the fielding measure, around an average third baseman. Second, Polanco is one of only two left-handed batters in the Pirates lineup--three if you count switch-hitting second baseman Neil Walker--and he's been solidly average (but not bad) against right-handed pitching (.258/.333/.382 slash line this year; the league average for non-pitchers is .260/.323/.402). So what probably would make the most sense for the Pirates would be a right handed-hitting platoon partner for Polanco, rather than getting a full-time outfielder (like Upton) who'd put Polanco on the bench or in AAA. I'd be surprised to see the Pirates go after a full-time replacement, but a right-handed fill-in, like the Phillies' Jeff Francoeur, whose lifetime .786 OPS against southpaws is almost double Polanco's .428. Francoeur, rumored to have been discussed by the Phils and Pirates, is another player who's never come close to living up to the hype generated by a fast start, but he has the virtue of being cheap: $950,000 for 2015, with no obligations beyond this year. Another possibility is an encore performance from the Reds' Marlon Byrd, who contributed to the Pirates' winning season in 2013 after a waiver-period trade from the Mets in 2013, though he's 37 and nearing the end of the road.

• First base: Like Polanco, Pedro Alvarez is a left-handed hitter. Like Polanco, he's been much more effective against right-handed pitchers (.237/.307/.437, all 12 of his home runs) than lefties (.179/.233/.214). Unlike Polanco, he's an absolute butcher in the field, with more errors here in mid-July (15) than any National League first baseman's had in a full season since Prince Fielder had 15 in 2011. A good-fielding right-handed hitter could relegate Alvarez to the bench (or get him traded). There are two first basemen widely assumed to be on the trading block: The Brewers' Adam Lind and the Red Sox's Mike Napoli. Lind is having a good season at the bat (.293/.374/.515), and isn't too expensive (signed for $7.5 million this year, $8 million team option or $500,000 buyout for 2016) but he's a below-average (though not terrible) fielder and the Brewers, in rebuilding mode, are likely to hold out for top prospects (i.e., they're unlikely to want Alavarez). Napoli bats right and is a good fielder but, at 33, could be nearing the end of his career: following an injury-riddled (he missed 43 games) .248/.370/.419 last year, he's batted .198/.296/.353 this season, making him the worst-hitting regular first baseman in the American League this year. So the upgrade over Alvarez from Napoli, other than in the field, is unclear.

So it looks like this for the Pirates: The most obvious need is a right-handed bat, to platoon with, or possibly replace, Alvarez or Polanco in the lineup. Given who's available, and the Pirates' understandable (given their small-market status) unwillingness to part with top prospects, I do expect a deal, albeit likely a smaller one, for a right-handed hitter who may not be with the club next year. Byrd, with a .918 OPS against lefties this year, seems to me to be the most likely choice. But fans hoping for a blockbuster are probably going to be disappointed. 

Next Up: The San Diego Padres

The Pirates host three games against the San Diego Padres before winding up play before the All-Star break with four games against the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. If it seems as if the Pirates just played the Padres yet haven't played their intra-division rival Cardinals since the start of the season, well, that's correct. The Pirates split four games in San Diego on May 28-31 and haven't seen the Cards since going 2-4 against St. Louis in two series spread over the first ten days of May.

How Are They Doing Lately? I'm going to repeat what I said in my preview for the May series, since almost nothing's changed: The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 39-45, in fourth place, 7.5 games behind the Dodgers, 3.5 behind the Giants, and 2 behind the Diamondbacks. They trail the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 11-17, the third-worst record in the league. They've scored 3.3 runs per game, fourth fewest in the league over the 30 days, and given up 4.8 per game, the third most.

Since the clubs met in May, the Padres let their manager, Bud Black, go. Pat Murphy holds the title of interim manager.

What's Going Right? Um...well...their offense is sixth in the league in walks and home runs. It's pretty hard to find things to say positive about the pitching staff: They've allowed 34% of baserunners to score, the most in the league, and that's such a high percentage that it's bound to come down.

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been pretty nonexistent over the last 30 days. They're last in the league in batting at .219 and on-base percentage at .278, and they're third to last in slugging at .357. The starters have an ERA of 4.33 and the relievers 3.45 over the last 30 days, each fifth worst in the league. 

Who's Hot? Only two Padres starters have ERAs below 5 over the past 30 days; the Pirates will face one, Tyson Ross (3.38), who hasn't allowed a home run since April. Closer Kimbrel's recovered from a shaky start and has a 0.82 ERA, 9-for-9 in saves, with 15 strikeouts over 11 innings of late. The team's other three primary relievers--Joaquin Benoit, Shawn Kelly, and Brandon Maurer--have been almost as good, with a combined 1.60 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over the past 30 days. As for the offense, put it this way: Clint Barmes is the only Padres batter over the last 30 days with a batting average over .285 and a slugging percentage above .500--both OK but not great numbers--is Clint Barmes. Yes, Pirates fans, Clint Barmes, the no-hit, good-glove shortstop who lost his job last year to Jordy Mercer. When your best hitter's a 36 year old middle infielder with a .247 career batting average, that's a team in a slump. 

Who's Not? Well, let's go through that list of big acquisitions. Over the past 30 days, Upton's batting .186 with two homers and a .278 slugging percentage. Myers is on the disabled list. Kemp is batting .231. Norris is batting .163. Middlebrooks is batting .159. Shields has a 5.59 ERA. I could go on.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are a better team than the Padres, but the Padres aren't as bad as they've been lately. At some point, the hitters will start hitting again and the starters will pitch to form. For now, San Diego's top relievers make jumping to the first lead imperative.

Next Up: The San Diego Padres

Sorry, a day late. But honestly, are you awake for these west coast games that don't start until 10 PM Eastern time? I had a job for which I traveled a lot, and trips to the west coast could be brutal. Sometimes I boarded a plane in the east around 6 AM (work backwards to figure out when I had to wake up), land on the west coast at 1:30 PM or so Pacific time, go to a couple meetings, and then have a dinner that didn't start until about 7 PM Pacific, by which time I'd been awake (other than any sleep time on the plane) for like 19 straight hours or so.

The Pirates faced something similar. They had an afternoon game at PNC Park on Wednesday followed by a night game in San Diego on Thursday. Granted, they flew on a charter flight (I almost always had to change planes somewhere) and they stay at really nice hotels. Still, let's think about the games in terms of the Eastern time zone. It was a 12:35 PM start on Wednesday, so let's assume the players had to get to the ballpark by about 9:00 AM. That means they probably got their wake-up call no later than 7:00 or 7:30. The game took 2:38, so they shower, change, get on the bus and let's say the plane is wheels up at 4:30 PM. There aren't any direct flights from Pittsburgh to San Diego, but a direct to Los Angeles takes 5:13. So let's assume the Pirates' charter, barring any air traffic control delays, is on the ground in San Diego by 9:30-10:00 PM. (Flight times for domestic carriers are always inflated, so that delays don't mess with the airline's on-time performance.) That has them in their rooms, bags unpacked, by 10:00-10:30. (The airport in San Diego is very conveniently located, near downtown.) But that's only 7:00-7:30 PM Pacific, and they haven't had a real meal, so they grab dinner, and even if it's room service, they're not in bed until midnight or so our time. The game Thursday started at 7:05 PM, so the players probably started arriving at Petco Park, I don't know, 1:00 or 2:00? But hang on--they landed Wednesday on East Coast time. How many of them woke up at 5:00 AM Thursday (8:00 AM Eastern), with the first pitch over 14 hours away? I listened to the radio broadcast of the game Wednesday, and radio commentator Steve Blass remarked that the first day of a West Coast trip always felt two days long. I don't have time to dig it up right now, but I'm pretty sure that teams traveling east-to-west with games on consecutive days have a lower-than-expected won-lost record in the first game in the Pacific time zone. Which, of course, the Pirates didn't, winning 11-5. 

Anyway, there are three more games with the Padres, followed by three in San Francisco, so let's look more closely at San Diego. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 23-26, in third place, 6.5 games behind the Dodgers and 6.0 behind the Giants. They trail the Giants, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, and Braves in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 12-15, tied with the Brewers and the Mets for the fifth-worst record in the league.

What's Going Right? Not a whole lot of late. The bullpen's been okay, with a seventh-best-in-the-league 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days, and they're one of only three teams with only one blown save over that period. But they're tied for the seventh-fewest saves and the fifth-fewest holds because they haven't been handed leads.

What's Going Wrong? They've gotten inconsistent starting pitching (4.68 ERA, third-highest in the league) and their offense has the third-lowest batting average (.233), second-lowest on-base percentage (.293), and second-lowest slugging percentage (.340). Bad starting pitching and no offense isn't a formula for success. The Padres' defense is awful; depending on the methodology, either the Padres or the Phillies are the worst-fielding team in the league, and it's not close. 

Who's Hot? While Kimbrel's had a tough go of it of late, the team's other three top relievers by innings pitched over the past 30 days, Brandon Mauer, Kevin Quackenbush, and Dale Thayer, have combined for a 2.11 ERA over 38.1 innings. Shields has a 4-0 record over the past 30 days, but that's because the offense has given him a lot of run support, as his ERA over the stretch is 4.60. By contrast, the offense has scored for starters Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, who are a combined 2-6 over the past 30 days despite ERAs of 3.23 and 3.19, respectively. On offense, Upton (.320/.398/.540 slash line over the past 30 days) has lived up to the hype, and Myers (.300/.404/.500) has been good too. Unfortunately, Myers is on the disabled list, though his understudy, Will Venable (.323/.405/.431) has performed well. 

Who's Not? Over the past 30 days, Kimbrel has a 7.45 ERA, but that shrinks to 3.24 without two terrible outings against Houston (three runs in a third of an inning) and Arizona (two runs in an inning). That 3.24 ERA is still a far cry from his career total of 1.43 entering the season, but he's struck out 16 over the past 9.2 innings, so he hasn't fallen off a cliff. After Shields, Cashner, and Ross, the rotation's been a mess, with a combined 6.48 ERA. Kemp's been terrible (.181/.216/.219 slash line over the past 30 days), shortstop Alexi Amarista has been worse (.169/.236/.200), and the replacement for injured first baseman Yonder Alonso, Yangervis Solarte, is hitting .232/.276/.303 over the past 30 days.

What's the Outlook? The Padres have, on paper, three strong starting pitchers, a dominant closer, a star-studded outfield and...well, the weather in San Diego's great and the ballpark's really nice. It's hard to imagine Kemp staying this awful, and Myers and Alonso should provide a boost when they return. The team could still snatch a wild-card spot. 

In the series, the Pirates face Shields and Ross, two of San Diego's best pitchers, over the next two games, so it'd surprise me if their seven-game winning streak gets to ten by the time they leave San Diego. Still, if they can take two of the next three, they'd be 27-23, a .540 winning percentage that's comparable to the .543 won-lost they compiled last season. But then they head up the coast for three against the red-hot Giants, who, along with the Nationals, are the only team in the majors to have won 20 games over the past 30 days. 

He Ain't Easy to Whiff, He's My Brother

In 2014, the Upton brothers, BJ and little brother Justin, struck out 344 times combined. Over their first four seasons in the majors together, the DiMaggio brothers, Joe and little brother Dom, struck out 316 times combined.

(For some reason, the hard-to-K gene skipped Joe and Dom's older brother Vince. He led his league in strikeouts six times in nine years as a regular.)

Trailing 30 - August 31

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Since we're at the end of August, this should give us a good picture of the contenders for the August awards. NL Player of the Month is between Atlanta's Justin Upton and Miami's Giancarlo Stanton; I'd guess the latter. The AL race is pretty wide open, maybe Detroit's Victor Martinez? The Pitchers of the Month seem pretty certain to be Baltomore's Chris Tillman in the AL and San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner in the NL.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Kansas City      19-9     1. Washington       19-9       

2. Baltimore        18-9     2. San Diego       16-10        

3. Cleveland        17-9     3. San Francisco   15-12         

4. Los Angeles     18-10     4. Chicago         16-13   

5. Seattle         16-10     5. St. Louis       15-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Chicago          8-19     1. Arizona          8-18      

2. Toronto          8-17     2. Colorado        10-17       

3. Texas           10-17     3. Cincinnati      11-17      

4. Minnesota       11-17        New York        11-17
5. Boston          11-16     5. Atlanta         13-14

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Abreu, Chi       .381     1. Jay, SL          .389        

2. V Martinez, Det  .354     2. Panik, SF        .385      

3. Ortiz, Bos       .342     3. Castro, Chi      .379           

4. Beltre, Tex      .333     4. Ramirez, Mil     .375          

5. Hardy, Bal       .326     5. Yelich, Fla      .343       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Davis, Bal       .154     1. Gregorius, SD    .145          

2. Moss, Oak        .178     2. Granderson, NY   .147       

3. Dominguez, Hou   .182     3. Rutledge, Col    .159
4. Napoli, Bos      .184     4. Jones, Mia       .187           

5. Kiermaier, TB    .188     5. Alcantara, Chi   .195      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. Abreu, Chi       .469     1. Jay, SL          .484           

2. V Martinez, Det  .448     2. Stanton, Mia     .445            

3. Ortiz, Bos       .440     3. Martin, Pit      .438         

4. Donaldson, Oak   .425     4. Freeman, Atl     .433          

5. Beltre, Tex      .420     5. Werth, Was       .432       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Carter, Hou      .626     1. Stanton, Mia     .591         

2. Ortiz, Bos       .603     2. Arenado, Col     .583     

3. V Martinez, Det  .558     3. Posey, SF        .579       

4. Gordon, KC       .553     4. Harrison, Pit    .579       

5. Arcia, Min       .549     5. J Upton, Atl     .576        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Carter, Hou        10     1. Stanton, Mia        8
2. Gordon, KC          8     2. Baez, Chi           7        

3. Arcia, Min          7        Dickerson, Col      7

   Bautista, Tor       7        Duda, NY            7
   Davis, Bal          7        J Upton, Atl        7
        
   Runs                         Runs    

1. Holt, Bos          24     1. Rendon, Was        22        

2. Dozier, Min        23     2. Harrison, Pit      20     

3. Zobrist, TB        21     3. 4 with             19
   Santana, Min       21     
5. 3 with             20     

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Carter, Hou        29     1. J Upton, Atl       28        

   V Martinez, Det    29     2. Stanton, Mia       25      

3. Vargas, Min        24     3. Dickerson, Col     23       

4. Arcia, Min         23     4. Howard, Phi        21
   Longoria, TB       23     5. 2 with             20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Schafer, Min       10     1. Hamilton, Cin      11            

2. Cain, KC            9     2. Gordon, LA         10     

   Dyson, KC           9     3. Gomez, Mil          9   

   Ellsbury, NY        9        Revere, Phi         9
5. 2 with              7     5. Crawford, LA        8

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Holland, KC        11     1. Kimbrel, Atl        8

2. Britton, Bal        9        Papelbon, Phi       8

3. Robertson, NY       8        Rodriguez, Mil      8
   Rodney, Sea         8        Rondon, Chi         8

5. 2 with              7     5. 2 with              7

   ERA                          ERA

1. Tillman, Bal     1.33     1. Bumgarner, SF    1.58

2. Smyly, TB        1.50     2. Cosart, Mia      1.64

   Cobb, TB         1.50     3. Hendricks, Chi   1.69

4. Shoemaker, LA    1.57     4. Kershaw, LA      1.80

5. Paxton, Sea      1.65     5. Fiers, Mil       1.80

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Webster, Bos     7.28     1. Lyles, Col       5.46

2. Carroll, Chi     7.22     2. Arrieta, Chi     5.34

3. Danks, Chi       6.75     3. Matzek, Col      5.30

4. Stroman, Tor     6.39     4. Kendrick, Phi    5.22

5. Kazmir, Oak      6.28     5. Wainwright, Phi  5.17

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Smyly, TB        0.69     1. Bumgarner, SF    0.58

2. Carrasco, Cle    0.78     2. Fiers, Mil       0.66
3. Shoemaker, LA    0.79     3. Nuno, Ari        0.82

4. Tillman, Bal     0.79     4. Kershaw, LA      0.88
5. Duffy, KC        0.91     5. Vogelsong, SF    0.89

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          56     1. Bumgarner, SF      49      

2. Scherzer, Det      53     2. Kershaw, LA        44

3. Kluber, Cle        43     3. Strasburg, Was     43

4. Archer, TB         42     4. Fiers, Mil         41

5. 2 with             37     5. Kennedy, SD        39

Flyover: Atlanta Braves

This continues a series of looks at each team over the past month.

The Atlanta Braves are currently 69-64, 11-16 over the past 30 days. They are second in the National League East, 6.5 games behind Washington, and 1.5 games out of the second National League wild card slot, tied with Pittsburgh.

How Are They Doing? The Braves won the division last year but after losing catcher Brian McCann to free agency and starting pitchers Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy to Tommy John surgery, a lot of observers (including On The Field of Play) figured they were a second-place team this year. They spent most of the year in first but relinquished the lead on July 21 and have been second to the Nationals ever since. They're tied with the Mets for the fourth-worst record in the league over the past 30 days. The pitching hasn't been bad, allowing the fifth-fewest runs in the league in the past month, but they've scored only 94 runs of late. Only the Diamondbacks have scored fewer. 

What's Going RIght? The starting pitchers have been decent, with a 3.51 ERA over the past month, sixth-best in the league. However, their peripheral stats aren't as impressive: fifth-fewest percentage of batters struck out, fifth-highest percentage of batters walked, middle of the pack in terms of both throwing strikes and getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. The bullpen's also had a low strikeout rate and high walk rate. All this suggests that the pitchers have probably been a little bit lucky. 

The offense hasn't been good, but it hasn't been terrible. They've walked in 8.8% of plate appearances, fourth-best in the league, helping Braves batters draw 3.9 pitches per plate appearance, second-most in the league, wearing down opposing pitchers. Braves hitters haven't been hitting a lot of fly balls (31% of batted balls, third-fewest in the league) but when they do, 10.7% go over the fence, the fifth most.

What's Going Wrong? It's hard to score a lot runs when you strike out in 24% of your plate appearances, as the Braves have over the past 30 games. Their .244 batting average is fifth-worst, .314 on-base percentage sixth-worst, and .365 slugging percentage fourth-worst. Their home field, Turner Field, favors pitchers, but only slightly. The offense really has been bad. As for the pitchers, as noted above, the starters haven't struck out a lot of batters and have walked a lot. Based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, Braves starters have been fourth-worst in the league, belying their sixth-best 3.51 ERA.

Who's Hot? The starting pitchers, other than Aaron Harang (1-2, 4.62 ERA) have been decent, though as alluded to above, every one of them has an ERA that is probably a little lower than it ought to be, given their strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Closer Craig Kimbrel has seven saves and has allowed only five hits in 9.1 innings. Middle relievers David Carpenter, Jordan Walden, and James Russell have pitched 33.2 inning, striking out 29, allowing just 29 baserunners, and compiling a 2.41 ERA.

Left fielder Justin Upton (.313/.402/.606 slash line), first baseman Freddie Freeman (.330/.442/.510), right fielder Jason Heyward (.311/.360/.444), and second baseman Phil Gosselin (.311/.340/.400 in limited play) have all been really good. Upton's hit 7 homers (tied for fourth in the league) and driven in 28 runs (tied for first), and his slugging percentage is third best. With four hitters that good, how can the Braves have a bad offense? Keep reading.

Who's Not? Other than the four batters listed above, the rest of the lineup has been terrible. Catcher Evan Gattis is hitting .227 and has a 29-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 95 plate appearances. Were he striking out and walking at league-average rates--and remember, this is the league in which pitchers bat--he'd have 20 whiffs and 7 walks. Gosselin's playing because second baseman Tommy LaStella has turned into a pumpkin with a .225 batting average. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons remains astonishingly good in the field, but he's batting only .212. Third baseman Chris Johnson has an OK .250 batting average but over the past month he's gotten only six walks and six extra-base hits, making his batting average empty, not backed up by on-base skills or power. And then there's center fielder BJ Upton, to whom I alluded in the last Trailing 30 report. He's got a .135/.264/.243 slash line over the last 30 games, and has struck out in 34% of his plate appearances. There has been speculation that the Braves might drop him--he's hit .195 in two seasons in Atlanta--but that would mean the Braves would have to eat the remainder of the $13.45 million he's owed this year. And the $14.45 million he's owed next year. And the $15.45 million he's owed in 2016. And the $16.45 million he's owed in 2017. You get the picture. 

As for the pitchers, Kimbrel has struck out "only" ten batters in his 9.1 innings over the past month (his season rate is 14.5 per nine innings) and he's walked seven, none intentionally. He's gotten 45% of his pitches in the strike zone compared to a season average of 49%, possibly indicating a loss of command. Among the starters, Alex Wood (.236), Julio Teheran (.254), and Mike Minor (.247) have given up batting averages on balls in play way below the league average of .292, suggesting that they may have been a little lucky. 

What's the Outlook? It's probably not realistic to expect the Braves to defend their divisional title unless the Nationals collapse. They're still in the hunt for the wild card, though. In order to make it, the starters will need to remain strong, Kimbrel will have to remain unhittable, and somebody other than Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward to generate offense. That may be a bit much to ask for.

Trailing 30 - August 24

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Geez, those Upton brothers...The Braves have Justin (the good one) signed for one more year at $14.5 million, and big brother B.J. (the bad one) signed for three more years, for a total of $46.35 million.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Kansas City      21-6     1. Washington      19-10       

2. Baltimore        17-9     2. Los Angeles     18-10        

   Seattle          17-9     3. Miami           16-11         

4. Los Angeles     16-11        St. Louis       16-11   

5. Cleveland       14-12     5. Chicago         16-12        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Boston           9-18     1. Colorado        10-17      

2. Texas            9-17     2. Cincinnati      11-18       

3. Chicago         10-16     3. Arizona         11-17      

4. Detroit         12-17     4. San Francisco   11-15
5. Minnesota       12-16     5. New York        12-16

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Abreu, Chi       .368     1. Jay, SL          .382        

2. Reyes, Tor       .349     2. Span, Was        .362      

3. Zobrist, TB      .345     3. Arenado, Col     .362           

4. Pedroia, Bos     .339     4. Revere, Phi      .361          

5. 3 with           .333     5. Ramirez, Mil     .359       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Davis, Bal       .145     1. BJ Upton, Atl    .160          

2. Bogaerts, Bos    .165     2. Crawford, SF     .177       

3. Moss, Oak        .169     3. LeMahieu, Col    .179
4. Cruz, Bal        .174     4. Granderson, NY   .182           

5. Dominguez, Hou   .188     5. Braun, Mil       .188      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. Abreu, Chi       .455     1. Jay, SL          .482           

2. Cano, Sea        .432     2. Freeman, Atl     .452            

3. Ortiz, Bos       .430     3. Stanton, Mia     .446         

4. Zobrist, TB      .416     4. Arenado, Col     .433          

5. V Martinez, Det  .416     5. Morneau, Col     .424       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Ortiz, Bos       .640     1. Stanton, Mia     .649         

2. Arcia, Min       .616     2. Arenado, Col     .648     

3. Carter, Hou      .571     3. Harrison, Pit    .625       

4. Gordon, KC       .557     4. J Upton, Atl     .590       

5. Abreu, Chi       .547     5. Kemp, LA         .578        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Carter, Hou        10     1. Stanton, Mia       10
2. Arcia, Min          8     2. Duda, NY            8        

3. 6 with              6     3. 5 with              7

                                
   Runs                         Runs    

1. Santana, Min       24     1. Harrison, Pit      24        

2. Reyes, Tor         20     2. Arenado, Col       20     

   Zobrist, TB        20        Rendon, Was        20
4. 3 with             19     4. Gomez, Mil         19
                             5. 2 with             18

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Carter, Hou        27     1. J Upton, Atl       29        

2. V Martinez, Det    24     2. Stanton, Mia       27      

3. Cespedes, Oak-Bos  23     3. Dickerson, Col     23       

   Vargas, Min        23        Gonzalez, LA       23
5. 2 with             21     5. 5 with             20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Dyson, KC           9     1. Gordon, LA         12            

2. Schafer, Min        8     2. Span, Was          10     

3. Aoki, KC            7     3. Crawford, LA        9   

4. 3 with              6        Hamilton, Cin       9
                                Revere, Phi         9

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Holland, KC        14     1. Rodriguez, Mil      9

2. Rodney, Sea        10        Rondon, Chi         9

3. Britton, Bal        9     3. Jansen, LA          8
   Robertson, NY       9        Kimbrel, Atl        8

   Street, LA          9        Rosenthal, SL       8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Iwakuma, Sea     0.99     1. Fister, Was      1.31

2. Cobb, TB         1.06     2. Kershaw, LA      1.62

3. Kluber, Cle      1.22     3. Hendricks, Chi   1.67

4. Shoemaker, LA    1.57     4. Lynn, SL         1.71

5. Santiago, LA     1.82     5. Hamels, Phi      1.85

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Mikolas, Tex     7.48     1. Matzek, Col      6.14

2. Buchholz, Bos    7.26     2. Despaigne, SD    5.81

3. Danks, Chi       7.15     3. Simon, Cin       5.68

4. Carroll, Chi     6.37     4. Kendrick, Phi    5.14

5. Martinez, Tex    6.18     5. Locke, Pit       4.79

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Tillman, Bal     0.74     1. Kershaw, LA      0.80

2. Shoemaker, LA    0.76     2. Strasburg, Was   0.82
3. Iwakuma, Sea     0.80     3. Bumgarner, SF    0.86

4. Hernandez, Sea   0.83     4. Zimmermann, Was  0.86
5. Price, TB-Det    0.88     5. Hernandez,Phi-LA 0.94

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          48     1. Kershaw, LA        50      

   Price, TB-Det      48     2. Greinke, LA        44

3. Scherzer, Det      44     3. Cueto, Cin         43

4. Kluber, Cle        43     4. Santana, Atl       41

5. Hernandez, Sea     41     5. Bumgarner, SF      38

Things I Didn't Know: NL West

In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.

National League first, going left to right, so starting with the NL West.

Los Angeles Dodgers, 92-70: There were only four teams in the National League with winning records on the road. Of them, the Dodgers had the best record, 45-36, even though their overall record was only third best in the league. Often teams that play in idiosyncratic ballparks (Dodger Stadium is one of the league's more extreme pitchers' parks) have a hard time on the road. Not the Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks, 81-81: The Diamondbacks had the best record in the league in one-run games, 34-21. Despite what you hear about that indicating tenaciousness, clutch ability, or a strong bullpen, a lot of it's luck. Arizona led the league in one-run wining percentage in 2011, with a 28-16 record. In 2012 they finished 13 games lower in the standings as their one-run game record cratered to 15-27. The best teams in one-run games in 2012 were the Reds (31-21) and Giants (30-20), who lost 7 and 18 more games in 2013, respectively. Winning one-run games is generally not a repeatable skill, so doing well at it one year often results in a slide in the next.

As an aside, remember the big trade before last season in which the Braves sent Martin Prado and four others to the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson? Everybody laughed that one off after Upton had a huge April, with a .298/.402/.734 slash line and 12 homers, while Prado struggled to .217/.266/.348. Well, for the rest of the season, Upton hit .256/.343/.409 while Prado hit .298/.348/.433. Take away April and Prado was the better hitter! But Johnson, who was viewed as almost a throw-in in accounts highlighting Prado and Upton, was as good or better: .321/.358/.457 for the season, tipping the trade, so far, in Atlanta's favor.

San Diego Padres, 76-86: San Diego had a disappointing team ERA of 3.98 last year. The league average was 3.74. It's tempting to blame that on Petco Park, as the fences were brought in last year and the Padres hurlers gave up 80 home runs compared to 62 the year before. But the problem wasn't Petco, it was the pitchers. Away from Petco, Padres pitchers had a 4.78 ERA, the worst in the NL. Petco's still a pitchers' park, and it helped mask the pitching staff's shortcomings.

San Francisco Giants, 76-86: Giants pitchers were fourth in the league in strikeouts with 1,256. Cain, Lincecum and others throwing heat? Hardly. The team threw fewer fastballs (four-seam and two-seam combined) in the league, 50% of pitches thrown, at the lowest average speed, 90.0 MPH. The Giants threw a ton of sliders, 26% of pitches thrown, easily the most in the league.

Colorado Rockies, 74-88: As I noted, there is evidence that the best pitches for Coors Field, the Rockies' hitter-favoring thin-air home park, are sliders and cut fastballs. The Rockies apparently didn't read the whole article I referenced. They threw 19% sliders, tied with the Brewers for the third most in the league, but only a little over 1% cutters. Then again, their only pitchers who used a cutter much were Chad Bettis (5.64 ERA), Jon Garland (5.82), and Jeff Francis (6.27), so maybe we need more evidence that the pitch can work at Coors. In the meantime, perhaps they should talk to the Giants' pitching coaches about slider proliferation.