Next Up: The San Diego Padres

The Pirates host three games against the San Diego Padres before winding up play before the All-Star break with four games against the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. If it seems as if the Pirates just played the Padres yet haven't played their intra-division rival Cardinals since the start of the season, well, that's correct. The Pirates split four games in San Diego on May 28-31 and haven't seen the Cards since going 2-4 against St. Louis in two series spread over the first ten days of May.

How Are They Doing Lately? I'm going to repeat what I said in my preview for the May series, since almost nothing's changed: The Padres led the offseason in headlines, as new general manager A.J. Preller overhauled the club. He traded for an entirely new outfield (Justin Upton from the Braves, Wil Myers from the Rays, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers), a new catcher (Derek Norris from the A's), a new third baseman (Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox), and a new closer (Craig Kimbrel from the Braves) and signed the third-best starting pitcher on the free agent market, James Shields (to a reasonable-by-contemporary-standards four year, $75 million deal with a club option to make it five years and $89 million). They were seen as a strong candidate for the postseason, with some picking them to topple the Dodgers atop the division. I envisioned a wild-card entry.

It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. They're currently 39-45, in fourth place, 7.5 games behind the Dodgers, 3.5 behind the Giants, and 2 behind the Diamondbacks. They trail the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Braves, and Diamondbacks in the wild card standings. Over the past 30 days they're 11-17, the third-worst record in the league. They've scored 3.3 runs per game, fourth fewest in the league over the 30 days, and given up 4.8 per game, the third most.

Since the clubs met in May, the Padres let their manager, Bud Black, go. Pat Murphy holds the title of interim manager.

What's Going Right? Um...well...their offense is sixth in the league in walks and home runs. It's pretty hard to find things to say positive about the pitching staff: They've allowed 34% of baserunners to score, the most in the league, and that's such a high percentage that it's bound to come down.

What's Going Wrong? The offense has been pretty nonexistent over the last 30 days. They're last in the league in batting at .219 and on-base percentage at .278, and they're third to last in slugging at .357. The starters have an ERA of 4.33 and the relievers 3.45 over the last 30 days, each fifth worst in the league. 

Who's Hot? Only two Padres starters have ERAs below 5 over the past 30 days; the Pirates will face one, Tyson Ross (3.38), who hasn't allowed a home run since April. Closer Kimbrel's recovered from a shaky start and has a 0.82 ERA, 9-for-9 in saves, with 15 strikeouts over 11 innings of late. The team's other three primary relievers--Joaquin Benoit, Shawn Kelly, and Brandon Maurer--have been almost as good, with a combined 1.60 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over the past 30 days. As for the offense, put it this way: Clint Barmes is the only Padres batter over the last 30 days with a batting average over .285 and a slugging percentage above .500--both OK but not great numbers--is Clint Barmes. Yes, Pirates fans, Clint Barmes, the no-hit, good-glove shortstop who lost his job last year to Jordy Mercer. When your best hitter's a 36 year old middle infielder with a .247 career batting average, that's a team in a slump. 

Who's Not? Well, let's go through that list of big acquisitions. Over the past 30 days, Upton's batting .186 with two homers and a .278 slugging percentage. Myers is on the disabled list. Kemp is batting .231. Norris is batting .163. Middlebrooks is batting .159. Shields has a 5.59 ERA. I could go on.

What's the Outlook? The Pirates are a better team than the Padres, but the Padres aren't as bad as they've been lately. At some point, the hitters will start hitting again and the starters will pitch to form. For now, San Diego's top relievers make jumping to the first lead imperative.

The Week That Was: National League West

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

This project's a lot of work. No division more so than this one. 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Traded for: 2B-SS Raymel Flores, SP Rubby De La Rosa, RP Zack Godley, 2B/SS Domingo Leyba, SP Jeferson Mejia, SP Robbie Ray, SP Allen Webster

Traded away: SS Didi Gregorius, SP Wade Miley, C Miguel Montero

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: At 64-98, the Diamondbacks were the worst team in baseball in 2014. These moves are recognition of that. The team traded three established players for a bunch of prospects. It won't help them much this year, but it might in the coming years.

2016+ Impact: De La Rosa was supposedly one of the centerpieces of the big salary dump in 2012 in which the Red Sox sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers, but he hasn't done much with the Red Sox (4-8, 4.43 ERA in 18 starts in 2014). Godley and Mejia come from the Cubs' deep farm system. They both pitched at Class A and Rookie ball last year, so they're not close. Ditto Leyba, who's just 19. Ray, like De La Rosa, was a centerpiece of a notable trade--the one last winter that sent pitcher Dough Fister to Nationals--who's now being traded again. He was the Tigers' No. 3 prospect entering the season according to ESPN's Keith Law, but he posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games for Detroit and a 4.22 ERA at AAA Indianapolis (the league average was 4.04). Webster was ranked 88 by Baseball America and 46 by MLB.com before last season, and he posted good numbers at AAA Pawtucket (3.10 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 122 innings) and not so good numbers in Boston (5.03 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 59 innings). For these moves to work for the Diamondbacks over the long term, somebody's going to have to pan out, because the three players Arizona traded away aren't at risk of leaving via free agency: Gregorius won't be eligible until 2010, Miley and Montero until 2018.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Traded for: RP Jairo Diaz

Traded away: 2B/SS Josh Rutledge

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This could be a nice deal for the Rockies. Diaz is a converted catcher who was pretty strong at A and AA (3.48 ERA, 85 strikeouts in 64.2 innings over 56 games) and a brief trial in Anaheim (four hits, eight strikeouts, three walks in 5.2 innings in five games). Rutledge has been below-average at the plate in three seasons of part-time play in Colorado. His role in 2015 was likely to hang around until Troy Tulowitzki gets hurt, and Colorado always has a need for arms.

2016+ Impact: As with 2015, I think this trade makes the Rockies a slightly better team.


LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Traded for (deep breath): C-IF Austin Barnes, SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, RP Chris Hatcher, OF Chris Heisey, IF-OF Enrique Hernandez, 2B Howie Kendrick, SP Joe Wieland
Traded away (another deep breath): C Tim Federowicz, 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, OF Matt Kemp, SP Matt Magill, IF Miguel Rojas
Free agents signed: SP Brandon McCarthy

2015 Impact: Hacking through all of this...the key additions here are Grandal, Kendrick, and McCarthy; the key subtractions are Gordon, Haren, and Kemp. A lot of Dodger fans are pretty upset about these moves, but as I've written, I don't think the loss of Kemp is that traumatic, and I'm not a big Dee Gordon fan. Haren wasn't all that good last year, and is making noises about retiring rather than reporting to the Marlins. Grandal's an underrated catcher, and Dodgers catchers were pretty atrocious last year (.181 batting average, .283 on base percentage, .261 slugging percentage--all last in the league). McCarthy split last season between the Diamondbacks, for whom he was pretty bad (3-10, 5.01 ERA) and the Yankees, for whom he was pretty good (7-5, 2.89 ERA). His underlying peripherals at both stops (strikeout, walk, and home run rate) point to mid-3-range ERA. And while he has a deserved reputation for being injury-prone, there were only 32 pitchers in the majors who topped his 200 innings pitched last year. Among the other players acquired, Hatcher had a strong year in the Marlins bullpen and joins a team with a real need for a bridge to closer Kenley Jansen. I'm willing to concede that maybe these moves in aggregate make the Dodgers a little weaker next year, due largely to Kemp's bat, but I'm leaning more toward them being a push and possibly a plus.

2016+ Impact: Kendrick could turn out to be rental (he's eligible for free agency in 2016) but several of the youngsters the Dodgers picked up could be contributors in the future. Eflin was first round draft pick two years ago, Hernandez can play all over the field, and Barnes plays catcher, second, and third. Wieland had a strong if shortened year coming back from Tommy John surgery. All could help the Dodgers, possibly in 2015, more likely in 2016 and beyond.

Comic relief: The Dodgers moves came so fast and furious that at one point they traded for left-handed pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, only to trade him away less than two hours later. That prompted this tweet from Heaney:

Well, @Dodgers we had a good run! Great to be a part of such a storied franchise. #thanksforthememories
— Andrew Heaney (@Heandog8) December 11, 2014

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Traded for: C Tim Federowicz, OF Matt Kemp
Traded away: SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, SP Joe Wieland
Free agents signed: SS Clint Barmes

2015 Impact: Well, if I liked this trade for the Dodgers, I suppose I don't like it for the Padres. Assuming Kemp's healthy and not playing center, though, this should make San Diego better in 2015. Barmes is a good glove/no bat guy who'll be 36 next season and was signed to a one-year contract (with a team option for 2016). He'll back up Alexi Amarista, a similarly bad hitter who could stand to learn some defensive pointers from his new teammate.

2016+ Impact: This is where I have reservations. The Padres gave up an OK catcher and a couple good pitching prospects for Matt Kemp's decline phase. Also, I should note that while Dodgers Stadium boosts homers for right-handed hitters, San Diego's Petco Park doesn't, so Kemp's superficial power numbers are likely to decline.


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Thanks, Giants. I needed a breather.

Barmes Benched? Or not.

Per Hardball Talk, the Pirates are benching shortstop Clint Barmes today in favor of better-hitting Jordy Mercer. 

Except it might not be a benching. Here are the Pirates' NLDS starters:

	GB/FB	GO/AO
A.J. Burnett	1.35	1.90
Gerrit Cole	1.01	1.60
Francisco Liriano*	1.06	1.52
Charlie Morton	1.78	2.74
League Average	0.86	1.17
Team Total	1.14	1.55

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/4/2013.

GB/FB is the ratio of ground balls to fly balls. (Baseball-Reference includes line drives as fly balls. Some other sites don't.) GO/AO is the ratio of outs on the ground and outs in the air.

There are two things you should get from this table.

• First, the Pirates get batters to hit balls on the ground a lot more than the average NL team. This isn't a surprise, as I posted a couple weeks ago.
• Second, Gerrit Cole, who's pitching today, and Francisco Liriano, who'll start Sunday, are much less dependent on ground balls than A.J. Burnett and Charlie Morton.

So taking the good-field no-hit guy out of the lineup in favor of the guy with more offense makes strategic sense when you're starting pitchers who don't produce as many grounders. I'd assume that's the case here.