The Week That Was: National League West

This continues a division-by-division look at last week's transactions in baseball. See the National League East entry for ground rules.

This project's a lot of work. No division more so than this one. 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Traded for: 2B-SS Raymel Flores, SP Rubby De La Rosa, RP Zack Godley, 2B/SS Domingo Leyba, SP Jeferson Mejia, SP Robbie Ray, SP Allen Webster

Traded away: SS Didi Gregorius, SP Wade Miley, C Miguel Montero

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: At 64-98, the Diamondbacks were the worst team in baseball in 2014. These moves are recognition of that. The team traded three established players for a bunch of prospects. It won't help them much this year, but it might in the coming years.

2016+ Impact: De La Rosa was supposedly one of the centerpieces of the big salary dump in 2012 in which the Red Sox sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers, but he hasn't done much with the Red Sox (4-8, 4.43 ERA in 18 starts in 2014). Godley and Mejia come from the Cubs' deep farm system. They both pitched at Class A and Rookie ball last year, so they're not close. Ditto Leyba, who's just 19. Ray, like De La Rosa, was a centerpiece of a notable trade--the one last winter that sent pitcher Dough Fister to Nationals--who's now being traded again. He was the Tigers' No. 3 prospect entering the season according to ESPN's Keith Law, but he posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games for Detroit and a 4.22 ERA at AAA Indianapolis (the league average was 4.04). Webster was ranked 88 by Baseball America and 46 by MLB.com before last season, and he posted good numbers at AAA Pawtucket (3.10 ERA, 100 strikeouts in 122 innings) and not so good numbers in Boston (5.03 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 59 innings). For these moves to work for the Diamondbacks over the long term, somebody's going to have to pan out, because the three players Arizona traded away aren't at risk of leaving via free agency: Gregorius won't be eligible until 2010, Miley and Montero until 2018.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Traded for: RP Jairo Diaz

Traded away: 2B/SS Josh Rutledge

Free agents signed: None

2015 Impact: This could be a nice deal for the Rockies. Diaz is a converted catcher who was pretty strong at A and AA (3.48 ERA, 85 strikeouts in 64.2 innings over 56 games) and a brief trial in Anaheim (four hits, eight strikeouts, three walks in 5.2 innings in five games). Rutledge has been below-average at the plate in three seasons of part-time play in Colorado. His role in 2015 was likely to hang around until Troy Tulowitzki gets hurt, and Colorado always has a need for arms.

2016+ Impact: As with 2015, I think this trade makes the Rockies a slightly better team.


LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Traded for (deep breath): C-IF Austin Barnes, SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, RP Chris Hatcher, OF Chris Heisey, IF-OF Enrique Hernandez, 2B Howie Kendrick, SP Joe Wieland
Traded away (another deep breath): C Tim Federowicz, 2B Dee Gordon, SP Dan Haren, OF Matt Kemp, SP Matt Magill, IF Miguel Rojas
Free agents signed: SP Brandon McCarthy

2015 Impact: Hacking through all of this...the key additions here are Grandal, Kendrick, and McCarthy; the key subtractions are Gordon, Haren, and Kemp. A lot of Dodger fans are pretty upset about these moves, but as I've written, I don't think the loss of Kemp is that traumatic, and I'm not a big Dee Gordon fan. Haren wasn't all that good last year, and is making noises about retiring rather than reporting to the Marlins. Grandal's an underrated catcher, and Dodgers catchers were pretty atrocious last year (.181 batting average, .283 on base percentage, .261 slugging percentage--all last in the league). McCarthy split last season between the Diamondbacks, for whom he was pretty bad (3-10, 5.01 ERA) and the Yankees, for whom he was pretty good (7-5, 2.89 ERA). His underlying peripherals at both stops (strikeout, walk, and home run rate) point to mid-3-range ERA. And while he has a deserved reputation for being injury-prone, there were only 32 pitchers in the majors who topped his 200 innings pitched last year. Among the other players acquired, Hatcher had a strong year in the Marlins bullpen and joins a team with a real need for a bridge to closer Kenley Jansen. I'm willing to concede that maybe these moves in aggregate make the Dodgers a little weaker next year, due largely to Kemp's bat, but I'm leaning more toward them being a push and possibly a plus.

2016+ Impact: Kendrick could turn out to be rental (he's eligible for free agency in 2016) but several of the youngsters the Dodgers picked up could be contributors in the future. Eflin was first round draft pick two years ago, Hernandez can play all over the field, and Barnes plays catcher, second, and third. Wieland had a strong if shortened year coming back from Tommy John surgery. All could help the Dodgers, possibly in 2015, more likely in 2016 and beyond.

Comic relief: The Dodgers moves came so fast and furious that at one point they traded for left-handed pitching prospect Andrew Heaney, only to trade him away less than two hours later. That prompted this tweet from Heaney:

Well, @Dodgers we had a good run! Great to be a part of such a storied franchise. #thanksforthememories
— Andrew Heaney (@Heandog8) December 11, 2014

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Traded for: C Tim Federowicz, OF Matt Kemp
Traded away: SP Zach Eflin, C Yasmani Grandal, SP Joe Wieland
Free agents signed: SS Clint Barmes

2015 Impact: Well, if I liked this trade for the Dodgers, I suppose I don't like it for the Padres. Assuming Kemp's healthy and not playing center, though, this should make San Diego better in 2015. Barmes is a good glove/no bat guy who'll be 36 next season and was signed to a one-year contract (with a team option for 2016). He'll back up Alexi Amarista, a similarly bad hitter who could stand to learn some defensive pointers from his new teammate.

2016+ Impact: This is where I have reservations. The Padres gave up an OK catcher and a couple good pitching prospects for Matt Kemp's decline phase. Also, I should note that while Dodgers Stadium boosts homers for right-handed hitters, San Diego's Petco Park doesn't, so Kemp's superficial power numbers are likely to decline.


SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Traded for: Nobody
Traded away: Nobody
Free agents signed: Nobody

Thanks, Giants. I needed a breather.

Flyover: Arizona Diamondbacks

This blog has been subject to fits and starts. In order to generate more consistent content, I'm going to give quick reviews of recent performance by all 30 major league teams. I'll do it alphabetically, starting with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

How Are They Doing? The Diamondbacks are one of the more disappointing teams in baseball this season. After two straight years of winning exactly half their games (81-81), the Diamondbacks stumbled badly out of the gate, losing 22 of their first 30 games. They never really recovered. They were one game over .500 in May (14-13) and July (13-12), but over the past 30 days they're 11-17. Despite that record, things could be worse. They're 23-22 in one-run games and 10-5 in extra innings, suggesting that they may have been a bit lucky.

Recently, they've been pretty bad. Only the Rockies have a worse record over the past 30 days. Their 4.00 ERA is the third worst in the league, and they've scored just 100 runs, one more than the league-worst Cubs. Losing their best player, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, with a broken hand on August 1, didn't help the team, of course. 

What's Going RIght? Despite playing in a hitter's park, only 9.6% of the fly balls allowed by Diamondbacks pitchers have left the park over the past 30 days, better than the league average of 9.7%. They've struck out 21.4% of batters, third most. In fact, based on just strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, Arizona's pitchers are the seventh-best in the league at preventing runs. 

Finding bright spots on offense is a bit more of a challenge. They've struck out the second-least frequently in the league over the past 30 days. Other than that...Well, they've probably been a bit unlucky. Their batting average on balls in play is .265 over the past 30 days, lowest in the league, compared to the league average of .299. That kind of outlier is usually indicative of bad luck (just as a high batting average on balls in play is indicative of good luck). On the year, Arizona's batting average on balls in play is .293, again suggesting that they've been hitting the ball at fielders a lot recently.

What's Going Wrong? Remember the On The Field of Play pitching mantra: Throwing strikes is good, getting strikes is better. Diamondback pitchers have failed on both accounts. Over the past 30 days, they've thrown 45.9% of pitches for strikes, second fewest in the league, and gotten batters to swing at 28.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, also second worst. As a result, they've given up a .309 batting average on balls in play, also second worst. Granted, batting average on balls in play is partly reflective of luck, but when you're not hitting the zone and not getting hitters to chase, batted balls are more likely to be crushed. They pitchers aren't being helped by their defense: The team's Defensive Efficiency Rating, which measures the number of balls in play that get turned into outs, is last in the league. 

The offense has been pretty bad. They're batting .229 over the past 30 days, worst in the league. Their on base percentage is .289 (third worst) and their slugging percentage .353 (second worst). And again, they play in a park that favors hitters. 

Who's Hot? Arizona's hottest hitter of late has been shortstop Cliff Pennington, who's hit .320 over the past month, with two homers, 11 RBIs, and walking more than he's struck out, all in just 14 games. Given that he's a 30-year-old with a lifetime batting average of .249, that screams "temporary hot streak." Catcher Miguel Montero's been decent as well. 

Starters Trevor Cahill (2.73 ERA) and Vidal Nuno (3.44) have had strong months, as has setup man Evan Marshall (1.64 ERA, striking out 31% of the batters he's faced) and closer Addison Reed (2.53 ERA, six saves, 16 strikeouts and one walk in 10.2 innings). Then there's Brandon McCarthy, who's totally turned his season around, rebounding from a 3-10, 5.01 ERA start to go 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA...Oh, wait. The first part was his year with the Diamondbacks, and the second part was after he got traded to the Yankees on July 6. Never mind.

Who's Not? The competition for worst Diamondbacks hitter over the past 30 days is fierce. Is it shortstop Didi Gregorius, with a .193/.247/.349 slash line? How about outfielder Alfredo Marte (.170/.228/.264)? Corner infielder Jordan Pacheco (.178/.196/.222)? I cast my vote for second baseman Aaron Hill, whose .182/.247/.273 slash line comes with an $11 million salary, highest on the team. 

Remember Randall Delgado, who purposely hit Pirates star Andrew McCutchen? Karma's a bitch; he's allowed 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? At this point in the season, bad teams are just playing out the string. The Diamondbacks, along with the Rangers, Rockies, Astros, and Red Sox, are in the running for the worst record/top draft pick this year, so there's little incentive for them to get better. The offense has been unlucky and will probably improve. However, this really isn't a very good team, and they don't have the excuse of up-and-coming youth (their hitters are 0.5 years younger than the league average, their pitchers 0.3).

What's Going On With: The Arizona Diamondbacks

This is Part 3 of a six-part series looking at the three worst and three best teams in baseball to date, and figuring out why they've done what they've done and whether they'll keep on doing it. We're now up to the worst team in the majors, the Arizona Diamondbacks, with a worse record than the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros.

How Bad Have They Been? The Diamondbacks are 8-21, a .276 winning percentage. Over a 162-game season, that's equivalent to going 45-117. They are a remarkable 2-14 at home.

How Much of a Surprise is This? The Cubs and Astros are teams that weren't supposed to be good and have simply been worse than expected. The Diamondbacks, though, seemed like an OK team going into the season. They were 81-81 in 2012 and 2013. Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and ESPN projected 79-82 wins. This is easily the most disappointing team in baseball.

What's Been Wrong? The offense hasn't been great (tenth in the NL in runs per game, sub-.300 on base percentage), the defense has been weak (lowest percentage of balls in play turned into outs), but the problem's been pitching. The team's 5.27 ERA is a full run worse than every other team's in the league. The relievers haven't been bad, but the starters' ERA is a cover-your-eyes 6.32. Josh Collmenter (3.94 ERA in three starts) is the only starter with an ERA below 5. Losing last year's best pitcher, Patrick Corbin, to Tommy John surgery was a bummer, but come on.

Has Luck Been Involved? Please refer here for a discussion of the terms used below, and why I chose them.

There are a couple things that support the notion that the pitching will get better. Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed a .323 batting average on balls in play, highest in the league, a figure that is far enough above the league average of .292 that you'd think there's some bad luck involved, although the Arizona fielders' inability to get to balls may be an unfixable contributor. Only 8.3% of fly balls hit by Diamondbacks hitters have left the yard compared to 12.9% of fly balls allowed by their pitchers. Neither figure is too far removed from the league average of 10.6% but the difference is large enough to make it seem as if either the hitters will hit more homers or the pitchers will give up fewer.

What's The Outlook? We can sit here and agree that the team's starters should improve. Wade Miley (3.54 career ERA entering the season) shouldn't finish the year with a 5.36 ERA. nor  Brandon McCarthy (4.10) at 5.54 ERA (he pitched a strong game on Sunday), nor Trevor Cahill (3.89) at 7.66, nor Bronson Arroyo (4.19) at 7.77. But there isn't a lot of data suggesting that a sharp improvement is imminent. Just for reference, a 5.27 team ERA would be worst for a non-Coors Field National League team since the Astros' 5.42 in 2000.

Reality Check: Stretching Them Out

I enjoy The Will Leitch Experience podcast (though I usually skip the episodes involving sports I don't care follow, i.e., pretty much everything other than baseball). Last week he had three consecutive appearances by Joe Sheehan, whose newsletter I strongly recommend. Joe previewed the 2014 season for all 30 teams. When discussing the Cardinals, he and Will talked about plans to move young pitcher Carlos Martinez from the bullpen to the rotation.

Joe mentioned that giving a young pitcher experience in the bullpen to prepare him for a starting role has become rarer in baseball due to the predominance of one-inning specialists. In 1965, the Baltimore Orioles had 19-year-old pitcher Jim Palmer in 27 games: six as a starter and 21 as a reliever. In those relief appearances, he pitched 56 innings, an average of exactly two and two thirds innings per relief appearance. That workload helped prepare Palmer for a Hall of Fame career as a starter.

Since the speaker here was Joe Sheehan, one of the top analysts in the game, the purpose of this Reality Check is not to determine whether Sheehan's assessment is correct. It is. The question is, how right is he?

I looked at five-year periods of baseball beginning in 1965, Palmer's rookie year. I used Baseball Reference's Play Index (invaluable research tool) to count the number of seasons in which a pitcher younger than 25 had at least 15 relief appearances of at least two innings. These appearances, we could reasonable conclude, are better than a shorter stint at preparing a young pitcher's arm for the rigors of starting. Here are the results. In the table, "# Seasons" means the number of seasons within the date range in which a pitcher younger than 25 had at least 15 relief appearances of at least two innings:

   Years   # Seasons   Prominent example
  1965-69     30       Ferguson Jenkins, 25, 1966
  1970-74     59       Bill Lee, 24, 1971
  1975-79     60       Jack Morris, 18, 1978
  1980-84     39       Rick Sutcliffe, 16, 1980
  1985-89     38       Chuck Finley, 16, 1987
  1990-94     15       Pedro Martinez, 31, 1993
  1995-99     15       Chan Ho Park, 15, 1996
  2000-04     13       Johan Santana, 18, 2000
  2005-09      5       Brandon McCarthy, 18, 2000
  2010-14      2       still waiting
Source: Baseball Reference Play Index. 

As you can see, over the past 50 years, there have been several cases of Hall of Fame and All Star-caliber starting pitchers who have begun their career pitching long relief. As the bullpen has evolved into a series of one-inning specialists, Sheehan's right: it's become hard for a relievers to develop the arm strength to move into the starting rotation. We may be looking a future with fewer stars starting out in relief like Ferguson Jenkins and Pedro Martinez and more promising youngsters who break when they try to move out of a short-outing relief role like Joba Chamberlain and Neftali Feliz.