This blog has been subject to fits and starts. In order to generate more consistent content, I'm going to give quick reviews of recent performance by all 30 major league teams. I'll do it alphabetically, starting with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
How Are They Doing? The Diamondbacks are one of the more disappointing teams in baseball this season. After two straight years of winning exactly half their games (81-81), the Diamondbacks stumbled badly out of the gate, losing 22 of their first 30 games. They never really recovered. They were one game over .500 in May (14-13) and July (13-12), but over the past 30 days they're 11-17. Despite that record, things could be worse. They're 23-22 in one-run games and 10-5 in extra innings, suggesting that they may have been a bit lucky.
Recently, they've been pretty bad. Only the Rockies have a worse record over the past 30 days. Their 4.00 ERA is the third worst in the league, and they've scored just 100 runs, one more than the league-worst Cubs. Losing their best player, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, with a broken hand on August 1, didn't help the team, of course.
What's Going RIght? Despite playing in a hitter's park, only 9.6% of the fly balls allowed by Diamondbacks pitchers have left the park over the past 30 days, better than the league average of 9.7%. They've struck out 21.4% of batters, third most. In fact, based on just strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, Arizona's pitchers are the seventh-best in the league at preventing runs.
Finding bright spots on offense is a bit more of a challenge. They've struck out the second-least frequently in the league over the past 30 days. Other than that...Well, they've probably been a bit unlucky. Their batting average on balls in play is .265 over the past 30 days, lowest in the league, compared to the league average of .299. That kind of outlier is usually indicative of bad luck (just as a high batting average on balls in play is indicative of good luck). On the year, Arizona's batting average on balls in play is .293, again suggesting that they've been hitting the ball at fielders a lot recently.
What's Going Wrong? Remember the On The Field of Play pitching mantra: Throwing strikes is good, getting strikes is better. Diamondback pitchers have failed on both accounts. Over the past 30 days, they've thrown 45.9% of pitches for strikes, second fewest in the league, and gotten batters to swing at 28.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, also second worst. As a result, they've given up a .309 batting average on balls in play, also second worst. Granted, batting average on balls in play is partly reflective of luck, but when you're not hitting the zone and not getting hitters to chase, batted balls are more likely to be crushed. They pitchers aren't being helped by their defense: The team's Defensive Efficiency Rating, which measures the number of balls in play that get turned into outs, is last in the league.
The offense has been pretty bad. They're batting .229 over the past 30 days, worst in the league. Their on base percentage is .289 (third worst) and their slugging percentage .353 (second worst). And again, they play in a park that favors hitters.
Who's Hot? Arizona's hottest hitter of late has been shortstop Cliff Pennington, who's hit .320 over the past month, with two homers, 11 RBIs, and walking more than he's struck out, all in just 14 games. Given that he's a 30-year-old with a lifetime batting average of .249, that screams "temporary hot streak." Catcher Miguel Montero's been decent as well.
Starters Trevor Cahill (2.73 ERA) and Vidal Nuno (3.44) have had strong months, as has setup man Evan Marshall (1.64 ERA, striking out 31% of the batters he's faced) and closer Addison Reed (2.53 ERA, six saves, 16 strikeouts and one walk in 10.2 innings). Then there's Brandon McCarthy, who's totally turned his season around, rebounding from a 3-10, 5.01 ERA start to go 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA...Oh, wait. The first part was his year with the Diamondbacks, and the second part was after he got traded to the Yankees on July 6. Never mind.
Who's Not? The competition for worst Diamondbacks hitter over the past 30 days is fierce. Is it shortstop Didi Gregorius, with a .193/.247/.349 slash line? How about outfielder Alfredo Marte (.170/.228/.264)? Corner infielder Jordan Pacheco (.178/.196/.222)? I cast my vote for second baseman Aaron Hill, whose .182/.247/.273 slash line comes with an $11 million salary, highest on the team.
Remember Randall Delgado, who purposely hit Pirates star Andrew McCutchen? Karma's a bitch; he's allowed 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in the past 30 days.
What's the Outlook? At this point in the season, bad teams are just playing out the string. The Diamondbacks, along with the Rangers, Rockies, Astros, and Red Sox, are in the running for the worst record/top draft pick this year, so there's little incentive for them to get better. The offense has been unlucky and will probably improve. However, this really isn't a very good team, and they don't have the excuse of up-and-coming youth (their hitters are 0.5 years younger than the league average, their pitchers 0.3).
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Showing posts with label Aaron Hill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Hill. Show all posts
Monday, August 25, 2014
Friday, May 2, 2014
Nolan Arenado, Ball Magnet
This morning I was scrolling through baseball stats at the mlb.com mobile site, and I noticed something curious. This is the list of major league leaders for assists:
Tulo, Hill, Castro, Ramirez, Dozier...all make sense. They're middle infielders, and middle infielders get a lot of ground balls. But there's the Rockies' Nolan Arenado tied for seventh. He's a third baseman. That seems out of place.
Arenado is in just his second year, but he's already won plaudits for his glovework. He won the National League Gold Glove last year as a rookie, and he hasn't let up this year. Still, how unusual is it for a third baseman to rank in the top ten in assists?
Really unusual, it turns out. As in, it hasn't happened since baseball expanded in 1961. The only third basemen in the 53 seasons since then to have finished in the top 20 in major league assists were Brooks Robinson (No. 13 in 1967), Ron Santo (No. 15 in 1967, No. 20 in 1966), Brandon Inge (No. 19 in 2006), Clete Boyer (No. 19 in 1962, No. 20 in 1961), and Graig Nettles (No. 20 in 1971). Nobody's been close to the top 10 until now.
Is this a fluke? I figure there are three things that could give Arenado a big advantage. First, handedness. Right-handed batters hit grounders to the left side of the infield more than left-handed batters, and managers load up on right-handed batters in order to gain a platoon advantage when they face lefties. Do the Rockies feature an unusual number of southpaw pitchers, resulting in opposing lineups full of right-handed batters, hitting grounder after grounder to third?
This year, lefties have pitched 37% of Colorado's innings. That's a lot. But it's not extreme: The Rangers, White Sox, Angels, Rays, Phillies, and A's all have had a greater proportion of innings pitched by lefties. So Arenado's pace isn't because he plays behind a steady stream of left-handed pitchers.
How about the pitchers' tendencies themselves? Do Rockies pitchers, in an effort to keep batted balls out of the thin air at Coors Field, generate tons of ground balls?
Again, yes, but it's not dramatic. Rockies pitchers have induced grounders on just under 49% of balls in play. That's high, but not highest: The Pirates, Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers have all gotten more. So that's not the explanation.
Finally, how about games played? Have the Rockies played more games than others, giving Arenado a chance to see more balls hit his way? Again, kind of yes. The Rockies have played 30 games so far, second-most in the majors. But other than the Tigers, every team's played at least 26. Maybe when the games even out, two of the players below him on the list above, Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve, will pass him. But that's probably it, at least on that basis. (And no, Arenado's assists aren't inflated by shifting, because, as Rockies Zingers points out, the Rockies do relatively little shifting.)
More likely, he just slows down. When a player's on pace early in the season to do something that's never been done before, the easy answer is to assume that he won't do it, either. But for a while here, I'm going to keep track of Arenado's assists and see if he can keep hanging with the middle infielders.
| Rk | Tm | G | Inn | A ▾ | Pos Summary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troy Tulowitzki | COL | 27 | 234.0 | 101 | SS |
| 2 | Aaron Hill | ARI | 29 | 260.0 | 92 | 2B |
| 3 | Starlin Castro | CHC | 26 | 230.0 | 91 | SS |
| 4 | Alexei Ramirez | CHW | 29 | 260.0 | 90 | SS |
| 5 | Brian Dozier | MIN | 26 | 238.2 | 87 | 2B |
| 6 | Jimmy Rollins | PHI | 24 | 204.1 | 87 | SS |
| 7 | Nolan Arenado | COL | 30 | 267.0 | 83 | 3B |
| 8 | Marcus Semien | CHW | 29 | 251.0 | 83 | 2B-3B |
| 9 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 28 | 249.1 | 81 | 2B |
| 10 | Ben Zobrist | TBR | 30 | 237.2 | 80 | 2B-OF-SS |
Arenado is in just his second year, but he's already won plaudits for his glovework. He won the National League Gold Glove last year as a rookie, and he hasn't let up this year. Still, how unusual is it for a third baseman to rank in the top ten in assists?
Really unusual, it turns out. As in, it hasn't happened since baseball expanded in 1961. The only third basemen in the 53 seasons since then to have finished in the top 20 in major league assists were Brooks Robinson (No. 13 in 1967), Ron Santo (No. 15 in 1967, No. 20 in 1966), Brandon Inge (No. 19 in 2006), Clete Boyer (No. 19 in 1962, No. 20 in 1961), and Graig Nettles (No. 20 in 1971). Nobody's been close to the top 10 until now.
Is this a fluke? I figure there are three things that could give Arenado a big advantage. First, handedness. Right-handed batters hit grounders to the left side of the infield more than left-handed batters, and managers load up on right-handed batters in order to gain a platoon advantage when they face lefties. Do the Rockies feature an unusual number of southpaw pitchers, resulting in opposing lineups full of right-handed batters, hitting grounder after grounder to third?
This year, lefties have pitched 37% of Colorado's innings. That's a lot. But it's not extreme: The Rangers, White Sox, Angels, Rays, Phillies, and A's all have had a greater proportion of innings pitched by lefties. So Arenado's pace isn't because he plays behind a steady stream of left-handed pitchers.
How about the pitchers' tendencies themselves? Do Rockies pitchers, in an effort to keep batted balls out of the thin air at Coors Field, generate tons of ground balls?
Again, yes, but it's not dramatic. Rockies pitchers have induced grounders on just under 49% of balls in play. That's high, but not highest: The Pirates, Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers have all gotten more. So that's not the explanation.
Finally, how about games played? Have the Rockies played more games than others, giving Arenado a chance to see more balls hit his way? Again, kind of yes. The Rockies have played 30 games so far, second-most in the majors. But other than the Tigers, every team's played at least 26. Maybe when the games even out, two of the players below him on the list above, Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve, will pass him. But that's probably it, at least on that basis. (And no, Arenado's assists aren't inflated by shifting, because, as Rockies Zingers points out, the Rockies do relatively little shifting.)
More likely, he just slows down. When a player's on pace early in the season to do something that's never been done before, the easy answer is to assume that he won't do it, either. But for a while here, I'm going to keep track of Arenado's assists and see if he can keep hanging with the middle infielders.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Diamondbacks Fans, Meet Mark Trumbo
Another interleague trade. Mark Trumbo has never played against the Diamondbacks, so he's new to Arizona fans. Here's the skinny.
What's Good About Him? Power. Trumbo was tenth in the American League in homers in 2012 with 32 and fourth last year with 34. He's been a regular the past three years, and in that time, among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances, he's tied with Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton for fifth in home runs with 95. He's gone deep once every 17.92 at bats, the 14th-highest rate. He batted in exactly 100 runs last year.
What's Not So Good About Him? A lot of power hitters also strike out a lot (not good), walk a lot (good), and hit into a lot of double plays (not good). Trumbo did strike out a lot: Once every 4.0 plate appearances, 12th highest in the majors among players with over 1,500 plate appearances. He grounded into a double play once every 39.1 plate appearances, 27th highest in the majors. But he didn't walk all that much: Once every 16.0 plate appearances, 84th in the majors. There were 104 players who logged 1,500+ plate appearances, so he struck out and grounded into double plays more than average and walked less often than average. All those strikeouts have kept his batting average low: .251 in his three years as a regular, .234 in 2013. The lack of walks have hurt his on base percentage: .300 as a regular, .294 last year. His homers have kept given him a good slugging percentage: .473 as a regular, .453 last year. His .251/.300/.473 slash line over the past three years compares to .256/.321/.408 for the American League as a whole.
This is not to say he's not valuable. Because of his power, his OPS has been consistently above average: about 15% over the past three years, adjusted for his park. Only MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Aaron Hill, and part-time third baseman Eric Chavez topped that figure on the Diamondbacks last season.
Trumbo's not a great fielder, and his best position is first base, where he's not going to unseat Goldschmidt. He'll be a corner outfielder.
So What Should Diamondbacks Fans Expect? Despite playing in a hitters' park, Arizona had the sixth-lowest slugging percentage and tied for the fourth-fewest homers in the National League last year. Trumbo will help on both scores. The ESPN Home Run Tracker chart at right doesn't do him justice: It shows where his home runs last season would've landed at Arizona's Chase Field. But Chase Field's an easier place to hit a home run than Angel Stadium, resulting in a park index of 106 for home runs at Chase (6% more home runs hit there than in Diamondbacks games on the road) compared to 90 in Anaheim (10% fewer than in Angels road games). So presumably some of Trumbo's fly outs at Anaheim will be round-trippers in Arizona. Trumbo crushes the ball when he connects--his average home run distance of 413 feet was fifth highest in the majors last year--so 35-40 home runs (along with a lot of strikeouts) seems a reasonable expectation.
What's Good About Him? Power. Trumbo was tenth in the American League in homers in 2012 with 32 and fourth last year with 34. He's been a regular the past three years, and in that time, among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances, he's tied with Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton for fifth in home runs with 95. He's gone deep once every 17.92 at bats, the 14th-highest rate. He batted in exactly 100 runs last year.
What's Not So Good About Him? A lot of power hitters also strike out a lot (not good), walk a lot (good), and hit into a lot of double plays (not good). Trumbo did strike out a lot: Once every 4.0 plate appearances, 12th highest in the majors among players with over 1,500 plate appearances. He grounded into a double play once every 39.1 plate appearances, 27th highest in the majors. But he didn't walk all that much: Once every 16.0 plate appearances, 84th in the majors. There were 104 players who logged 1,500+ plate appearances, so he struck out and grounded into double plays more than average and walked less often than average. All those strikeouts have kept his batting average low: .251 in his three years as a regular, .234 in 2013. The lack of walks have hurt his on base percentage: .300 as a regular, .294 last year. His homers have kept given him a good slugging percentage: .473 as a regular, .453 last year. His .251/.300/.473 slash line over the past three years compares to .256/.321/.408 for the American League as a whole.
This is not to say he's not valuable. Because of his power, his OPS has been consistently above average: about 15% over the past three years, adjusted for his park. Only MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Aaron Hill, and part-time third baseman Eric Chavez topped that figure on the Diamondbacks last season.
Trumbo's not a great fielder, and his best position is first base, where he's not going to unseat Goldschmidt. He'll be a corner outfielder.
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