On Hiatuses and Not-So-Fun Facts

I've been blogging here a lot less this year than last year. You probably think it's because the Pirates aren't nearly as good as they were last year, and therefore I've lost interest. That's not it. The simple answer is: I've been busy! I've been writing a fair amount for Baseball Prospectus, which is an incredibly exciting honor, but it's a lot of work. Here's what I've been doing:

• On June 6, I researched whether a league with really bad teams creates a fertile ground for really good teams.
• On June 13, I wrote about how baseball sabermetrician Bill James's disdain for groundball pitchers, i.e., pitchers who generate many more groundballs than flyballs. I rose to their defense, pointing out that, in aggregate, they allow fewer home runs and, therefore, fewer runs than flyball pitchers.
• On June 14, I discussed an online poll in which, in response to the question "which off. stat is most important to a hitter's value," viewers chose on base percentage. I took issue with that assessment, illustrating how the voters' last pick, slugging percentage, was actually the best. 
• On June 15 (it was a busy week!) I listed players who led their teams in various categories, like RBI and strikeouts, with really unimpressive totals.
• Today I delved more into groundball pitchers, finding that their superiority over flyball pitchers hasn't been a constant over time.

I also wrote my regular weekly Trailing 30 report at Banished to the Pen on Monday. 

I'll try to at least post more contemporaneously.

Now, for a fun fact (which, full disclosure, I heard on MLB.com's Statcast Podcast): Here's a list of the top four outfielders (by plate appearances) for the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. I've ranked them by OPS:

   Player                 PAs   BA    OBP   SLG   OPS
   Matt Joyce, Pit        117  .292  .419  .594  1.013
   Marcell Ozuna, Mia     287  .321  .373  .565   .938
   Christian Yelich, Mia  270  .316  .404  .491   .895
   Gregory Polanco, Pit   291  .295  .379  .510   .889
   Starling Marte, Pit    268  .331  .373  .498   .871
   Ichiro Suzuki, Mia     151  .353  .427  .398   .825
   Giancarlo Stanton, Mia 252  .211  .311  .427   .737
   Andrew McCutchen, Pit  304  .238  .316  .403   .719

Two of the biggest stars in baseball, at the bottom of the list. 

Next Up: The Miami Marlins

Since the beginning of July, the Pirates have played 30 games against teams that, at the time of the game, had a winning record, and only 16 games against teams below .500. It hasn't hurt them, as they've played better against the winning teams (22-8) than the losing teams (9-7). Tonight start a streak of ten straight games against teams with records below .500--three of the five worst teams in the National League, in fact--with four games in Miami against the Marlins.

How Are They Doing Lately? This is probably the most salient fact about the Marlins: Their two most recognizable stars are right fielder Giancarlo Stanton and starting pitcher Jose Fernandez. Due to injuries (a broken bone in Stanton's hand, recovery from Tommy John surgery and a strained muscle for Fernandez), the two have not been active at the same time all season. As a result, the Marlins, picked by some (not I) to possibly contend this year, are tied with the Phillies for the worst record in the National League East, just percentage points ahead of the Rockies (whom the Pirates play next) for the worst record in baseball. Over the last 30 days, their 9-18 record is the fourth worst in the National League. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, the fifth fewest, while allowing 5.1, the third most. The Pirates, by contrast, arrive in Miami with the second-best record in the National League: 18-8, tied with the Mets.

What's Going Right? Marlins starting pitchers have a pretty terrible record over the past 30 days, with a 4-13 won-lost record and a 5.26 ERA, but one could argue that they've been unlucky: a .326 batting average on balls in play (the National League average is .308) and only 65% of baserunners left stranded (average 72%), both likely markers of luck as much as skill. With more normal performance, though, the starters would be average, not good. On offense, they've been the toughest team in the National League to strike out over the past 30 days, largely because they've swung at pitches outside the strike zone less frequently than any other team.

What's Going Wrong? One of the reasons the starting pitchers have allowed 35% of baserunners to score compared to the league average of 28% is the bullpen. The relievers' 4.48 ERA is the fourth worst in the league over the past 30 days. They've allowed the second highest walk rate in the league and allowed an above-average number of homers. At the plate, the Marlins' .249 batting average over the last 30 days is the fifth lowest in the league, their .311 on base percentage sixth lowest, and their .360 slugging percentage the worst. Their team speed has enabled them to leg out 13 triples over the last 30 days, the most in the league, but they are last in doubles with 29 (the only team with fewer than 35) and homers with 15 (four fewer than the next-worst team). 

Who's Hot? Left fielder Derek Dietrich leads the team in home runs (five), runs (17), RBI (14), walks (12), on base percentage (.376), and slugging percentage (.506) over the past 30 days. Second baseman Dee Gordon's hit .323 with a .368 on base percentage and eight stolen bases. Cole Gillespie has filled in at all three outfield positions, batting .328 with a .388 on base percentage. Over the last 30 days, rookie left-handed starter Justin Nicolino (he'll start Thursday night's game, opposing Gerrit Cole) has a 3.60 ERA but only seven strikeouts over 20 innings. Tomorrow night's starter, lefty Brad Hand, has a 3.13 ERA. The only Marlins starters with lower ERAs over the last 30 days are Fernandez, who's hurt, and Dan Haren, who's been traded. Setup man Bryan Morris has six holds and a 2.53 ERA over the past 30 days, though he's walked as many batters as he's struck out (five each in 10.2 innnings).

Who's Not? Between injuries and trades, the Marlins have had to mix-and-match with the starting rotation, and ten different starters have gotten the ball over the past 30 days. Excluding Nicolino, Hand, Fernandez, Haren, and another traded veteran, Mat Latos, the remaining Marlins starters have a combined 7.66 ERA over 15 starts. Closer A.J. Ramos had given up four homers, seven walks, and 11 hits over his last 11 innings, good for an 8.18 ERA. Rookie first baseman Justin Bour has cooled off, with a .215/.295/.316 slash line over the past 30 days, and third baseman Casey McGehee has been worse at .156/.240/.200. Catcher J.T. Realmuto's hit .205 with a .266 on base percentage during the span. 

What's the Outlook? The Marlins are not a good ball club, but the Pirates haven't always done well against weaker competition (4-9 against Cincinnati, 6-6 against Milwaukee). However, they did sweep three from Miami in May, when they had Stanton in the lineup. With the Pirates playing ten games against three of the worst teams in the league at the same time the Cardinals play ten against teams with winning records (the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Nationals), there's an opportunity for the Pirates to pick up ground heading into a Labor Day weekend matchup in St. Louis.

Trailing 30 - June 28

Here is an explanation of this weekly feature, listing the best and worst of past 30 days, made possible by FanGraph's Leaders application. Comment for the week: We're close enough to the end June to predict Players of the Month. American League: I'd vote for Miguel Cabrera but I expect Albert Pujols will win. Among the pitchers, there's a case to be made for Chris Sale, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Archer, with a nod to the latter for the surprisingly good performance of the Rays. In the National League, looks as if Nolan Arenado is well-positioned to win the top player award (I'd go with Giancarlo Stanton or Paul Goldschmidt) while Max Scherzer seems the choice for top pitcher.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Toronto         18- 9     1. St. Louis       19- 8

2. Tampa Bay       18-10     2. Pittsburgh      17-10    

3. Baltimore       17-10     3. Cincinnati      15-11         

4. Kansas City     15-10     4. Chicago         14-13   

5. NY, Oak         16-11     5. Arizona, SD     14-14        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Boston          11-17     1. Philadelphia     7-19      

   Seattle         11-17     2. New York        11-16       

3. Detroit         10-15     3. Atlanta         12-16      

4. Chicago         11-16        Milwaukee       12-16
5. Minnesota       12-16     5. San Francisco   12-15

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Cabrera, Det     .402     1. Tulowitzki, Col  .394        

2. Pillar, Tor      .379     2. Goldschidt, Ari  .388      

3. Kipnis, Cle      .363     3. Harper, Was      .359           

4. Machado, Bal     .351     4. Turner, LA       .352          

5. Burns, Oak       .339     5. Heyward, SL      .348       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Sanchez, Chi     .165     1. Desmond, Was     .160          

2. Garcia, Chi      .170     2. Galvis, Phi      .169       

3. Rios, KC         .181     3. Ramirez, Mil     .178
4. Ramirez, Chi     .190     4. Norris, SD       .178           

5. Napoli, Bos      .190     5. Duda, NY         .183      

   On Base Percentage           On Base Percentage  

1. Cabrera, Det     .500     1. Goldschmidt, Ari .512           

2. Kipnis, Cle      .450     2. Harper, Was      .457          

3. Gordon, KC       .433     3. Tulowitzki, Col  .447         

4. Bautista, Tor    .426     4. Coghlin, Chi     .434          

5. Fielder, Tex     .426     5. Votto, Cin       .427      

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Pujols, LA       .786     1. Stanton, Mia     .784        

2. JD Martinez, Det .681     2. Arenado, Col     .705     

3. Trout, LA        .653     3. Goldschmidt, Ari .704       

4. Cabrera, Det     .621     4. Frazier, Cin     .701       

5. Machado, Bal     .605     5. Harper, Was      .667        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Pujols, LA         14     1. Stanton, Mia       14
2. JD Martinez, Det   10     2. Arenado, Col       12        

3. Valbuena, Hou       9     3. Frazier, Cin       10
4. 3 with              8     4. 3 with              9
                                

   Runs                         Runs    

1. Gardner, NY        27     1. Arenado, Col       24        

2. Pujols, LA         25        Frazier, Cin       24     

3. Machado, Bal       22     3. LeMahieu, Col      21
4. Bautista, Tor      21     4. 5 with             20
   Zobrist, Oak       21        

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Pujols, LA         28     1. Arenado, Col       35        

2. JD Martinez, Det   24     2. Posey, SF          26      

3. Machado, Bal       21     3. Stanton, Mia       25       

4. 3 with             20     4. Frazier, Cin       24
                                Goldschmidt, Ari   24
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Burns, Oak          8     1. Hamilton, Cin      18            

2. Reyes, Tor          7     2. Blackmon, Col      11     

3. 4 with              6     3. Revere, Phi         9   

                             4. Marte, Pit          8
                             5. 2 with              7
                                

   Saves                        Saves

1. Britton, Bal        9     1. Melancon, Pit      12

   Holland, KC         9     2. Rosentha, SL        9

3. Clippard, Oak       8        Ziegler, Ari        9
4. Boxberger, TB       7     4. Chapman, Cin        8

   Perkins, Min        7        Ramos, Mia          8

   ERA                          ERA

1. Gallardo, Tex    0.69     1. Garcia, SL       1.03

2. Price, Det       1.45     2. deGrom, NY       1.21

3. Archer, TB       1.80     3. Martinez, SL     1.85

4. Walker, Sea      1.91     4. Hammel, Chi      2.01

5. Sale, Chi        1.98     5. Ray, Ari         2.08

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Martinez, Tex    6.35     1. Lohse, Mil       7.56

2. Elias, Sea       6.21     2. Harang, Phi      6.56

3. Weaver, LA       6.12     3. Cashner, SD      6.55

4. McHugh, Hou      5.00     4. O'Sullivan, Phi  6.00

5. Samardzija, Chi  5.94     5. Hellickson, Ari  5.45

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Sale, Chi        0.80     1. Scherzer, Was    0.62

2. Walker, Sea      0.87     2. deGrom, NY       0.67
3. Archer, TB       0.89     3. Garcia, SL       0.69

4. Buerhle, Tor     0.91     4. Liriano, Pit     0.84
5. Gallardo, Tex    0.92     5. Kershaw, LA      0.84

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          63     1. Kershaw, LA        57     

2. Keuchel, Hou       46     2. Bumgarner, SF      47

3. Walker, Sea        44     3. Scherzer, Was      45

4. Archer, TB         41     4. Liriano, Pit       44

   McCullers, Hou     41     5. Arrieta, Chi       41

Next Up: The Miami Marlins

I was at a college reunion over the weekend so I didn't do a preview of the Pirates' series against the Mets. I would've said some of the same things I'd said about the Twins: team's been a pleasant surprise to date but appears to be overachieving. What I wouldn't have said was that the series would turn out to be a shellacking: Pirates outscoring the Mets 21-4, beating Thor and The Dark Knight along the way. As a result, the team's offense looks less inept: tied for the fourth-worst park-adjusted OPS, fourth-worst on base percentage with the bases empty, below-average offensive performance at three positions (first base, shortstop, and right field). Hey, those are all improvements! The two most disappointing players in April are having a May resurgence. Josh Harrison's slash line has improved from .213/.250/.363 in April to .312/.333/.455, while Andrew McCutchen's gone from .194/.302/.333 in April to .321/.411/.580 in May. The Pirates will attempt to keep it going, hosting three games against a Miami Marlins team that appears to be in disarray, before starting a West Coast swing on Thursday.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Marlins' 12-16 record over the past 30 days is the fifth-worst in the National League. Over the past two weeks, they're 3-10, the worst record in the league. A week ago today, they fired their manager, Mike Redmond, and replaced him with their then-general manager, Dan Jennings. Jennings' managerial experience consisted of...well, he coached at a high school in Alabama in the 1980s. Seriously. Redmond was fired following after a 1-7 run, culminating in the loss of three straight to the Braves. Under Jennings, the Marlins extended the losing streak to eight straight before taking two over the weekend from Baltimore.

What's Going Right? Over the past 30 days, Marlins starting pitchers have a 3.83 ERA, sixth best in the league. They're helped by a home park that suppresses offense, but still, for a team that's had arguably its two best starters (Jose Fernandez and Henderson Alvarez) on the disabled list for all but four starts this year, that's not bad. The relievers have a 3.50 ERA over the past 30 days, sixth best in the league, but that's misleading.

What's Going Wrong? Disregard that reliever ERA: The Marlins have four saves and six blown saves over the past 30 days. By the measure Win Probability Added, which calculates the odds that a team will win a game at any point, the Marlins relievers have been, by far, the worst in the league. On offense, the team has been sixth in batting average over the past 30 days but tenth in on base percentage and thirteenth in slugging percentage, indicating that they've gotten a bunch of singles but little else; they're eleventh in walks, fourteenth in doubles, and tied for twelfth in homers. 

Who's Hot? The Marlins offense consists largely of second baseman and leadoff hitter Dee Gordon and rightfielder and No. 3 hitter Giancarlo Stanton. Over the past 30 days, Gordon's batting .380 with nine stolen bases (both first in the league) while Stanton has eight homers (tied for sixth) and had driven in 26 runs (fourth). Outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, 41, is defying time with a .314 batting average over the past 30 days. The team's best starting pitcher has been Dan Haren, who threatened to retire during the offseason when the California native was traded away from the Dodgers in the deal that brought Gordon to Miami. He's 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA over the past 30 days. Fellow starters David Phelps (1-1, 3.07 ERA) and Tom Koehler (2-1, 2.41) have been solid as well. None of the three get a lot of strikeouts, which suggests they might struggle to keep up their recent performance. Reliever A.J. Ramos, who became the team's closer on May 12, has two saves and a 0.71 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup man Sam Dyson has a 1.93 ERA over 14 innings.

Who's Not? Third baseman Martin Prado exemplifies the problem with the Marlins' offense. He's batting .267 over the past 30 days, above the league average of .255. But he's walked only four times and he's had only five extra-base hits to go with 26 singles, so his on base percentage of .309 compares to a league average of .317 and his .345 slugging percentage compares to a league average of .400. As I said, the Marlins get a bunch of singles and little else. Two players who were expected to be significant contributors to the offense have been awful: Left fielder Christian Yelich has a .189/.283/.264 slash line over the last 30 days, and first baseman Michael Morse has been worse: .203/.239/.234 with no homers. The Marlins starters after Haren, Phelps, and Koehler have been bad, and demoted closer Steve Cishek has two saves, three blown saves, and 6.08 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The Marlins were viewed by some as a playoff contender this year. (Not I.) Instead, they're last in the National League East, and their 18-27 record gives them the third-worst winning percentage in baseball. The main hope is the return of Fernandez from Tommy John surgery sometime over the summer. The Pirates will face one of the Marlins' best starters, Phelps, tonight, countering with Charlie Morton's first start following offseason hip surgery. The struggling Jeff Locke (6.67 ERA, fourth-worst in the NL over the past 30 days) and the not-struggling Gerrit Cole (1.95, sixth-best) start the next two nights. The Marlins haven't announced their starters. If the Pirates can take the series 2-1, they'll return to .500. A sweep would put them two games over .500 for the first time since April.

Hit Batters as Collateral Damage of Rising Strikeouts Rates

My latest in my obsession with batters getting hit by a pitch was just published at FanGraphs. Link here. Pretty graphs, neat tables--I really pulled out the stops! The conclusion can be expressed as a syllogism (a word that, I'll admit, generally isn't associated with baseball);

• Batters are most likely to be hit when the pitcher is ahead on the count. Counts of 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 0-1 are by far the most likely ones to result in batters being hit by the next pitch.
• With rising rates of strikeouts, batters are facing more counts of 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 0-1.
• Therefore, rising rates of strikeouts are causing more batters to be hit by pitches.

Click over to the article, which, I promise, does not contain the word syllogism, though it does have a clever link illustrating why correlation is not causation. 

The Risk of Giancarlo Stanton

The Miami Marlins have signed their star right fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, to the longest and richest contract in baseball history: 13 years, $325 million. The 25-year-old Stanton can opt out of the deal after the 2020 season. We don't know the details of the contract, i.e. how the dollars are spread around over the years, but I'll go out on a limb and say that at an average value of $25 million per year, he's going to be paid a lot of money every season. Stanton, who turned 25 earlier this month, was an All-Star and finished second in MVP balloting in 2014, leading the National League in home runs (37), total bases (299), slugging percentage (.555), and, in a statement both of his talent and that of the Marlins lineup surrounding him, intentional walks (24). He's tied for tenth all time in home runs through age 24:

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Eddie Mathews	190	1952	1956	732	3141	2634	497	735	119	24	492	471	443	.279	.388	.559	.947
2	Alex Rodriguez	189	1994	2000	790	3515	3126	627	966	194	13	595	310	616	.309	.374	.561	.934
3	Mel Ott	176	1926	1933	983	3978	3367	680	1059	195	31	711	537	258	.315	.412	.548	.959
4	Jimmie Foxx	174	1925	1932	810	3270	2750	612	923	159	57	667	460	377	.336	.432	.625	1.056
5	Mickey Mantle	173	1951	1956	808	3491	2944	642	907	136	43	575	524	578	.308	.412	.560	.972
6	Ken Griffey	172	1989	1994	845	3606	3180	518	972	194	19	543	374	477	.306	.379	.541	.920
7	Frank Robinson	165	1956	1960	735	3155	2741	501	818	145	27	449	321	427	.298	.380	.552	.932
8	Albert Pujols	160	2001	2004	629	2728	2363	500	787	189	9	504	304	279	.333	.413	.624	1.037
9	Orlando Cepeda	157	1958	1962	764	3220	2987	471	922	163	16	553	172	463	.309	.350	.532	.881
10	Giancarlo Stanton	154	2010	2014	634	2640	2288	350	619	138	8	399	318	742	.271	.364	.540	.903
11	Johnny Bench	154	1967	1972	782	3229	2887	421	781	142	12	512	288	470	.271	.334	.488	.822

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 11/18/2014.

As you can see, he got there in fewer plate appearances than anyone on the list (among players with 100 or more homers through age 24, only Mathews, Pujols, Bob Horner, and Willie Mays went deep more often than Stanton's 5.8% of plate appearances), and he's also struck out more than the others. 

The contract has resulted in predictable reactions.

• It's too much money. Yes, it's the biggest contract in baseball history in total dollars, but not in average annual value. Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Alex Rodriguez, and Justin Verlander are in contracts that pay them more than an average of $25 million per year, and the $25 million average equals the current contracts of Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, and Felix Hernandez. There are players whom one might view as more valuable than Stanton (Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen, to name two), but Stanton's contract isn't out of line with those of the players on the $25 million-plus list.
• No, I mean, it's too much money for a player. Sports Illustrated's Joe Sheehan has pointed out that the share of baseball revenues going to player salaries has steadily declined since the turn of the century. Given that no teams were going bankrupt in 2000, and that fans would probably rather watch Stanton hit than watch his owner, Jeffrey Loria, count money, I can't see a problem with the players getting a bigger slice of the pie.
• No, seriously, we can pay a baseball player that much and we can't pay schoolteachers and firefighters? This argument will make sense when kids walk around wearing their teachers' replica jerseys and firefighters negotiate with regional sports networks to televise their rescues.
• Thirteen years is too long. There's no question that's a risk. But Stanton will be 38 when his contract ends. Cabrera's will pay him at least through age 40, possibly a couple years longer, depending on options that vest based on his MVP vote. Rodriguez is under contract through age 41. Same with Albert Pujols. It's a long contract, but not ridiculously long. 
• He won't age well. Stanton is 6'6", 240. One could easily see him slowing down as he ages, moving from right to left to, eventually, first. He's in the National League, so he can't become a DH. But here's the thing: Historically, players with "old player skills" (home runs, walks, strikeouts) tend to flame out relatively early. Stanton last year was first in the National League in homers, second in walks, and sixth in strikeouts. On the other hand, Stanton is a good athlete. He grades out as an above-average right fielder and was 13-for-14 as a basestealer in 2014. He's not just a slugger.
• His owner's crazy. Well, that's true. He's "the most hated man in Major League Baseball." The Marlins' payroll last year was $42.4 million, last in the majors. The average annual value of Stanton's contract equals nearly 60% of that total. It doesn't make sense to pay that much to one guy while doing everything else on the cheap. Is this indicative of a willingness to spend? If so, the Marlins, who have a lot of promising young players, could contend. But we've been down this road before with Loria, when he added players after the 2011 season only to unload them after a disappointing 2012. But say this for Loria: His sins have consistently been of being penny-pinching, not profligate.

Rather, there are two things that I worry about with Stanton:

• Durability. Stanton's first full year in the majors was 2011. He played 150 games that year. He hasn't matched that total since. In 2012, he missed 39 games due to knee pain that required surgery in July. He also had oblique and shoulder injuries that year. He missed 46 games in 2013 due primarily to a strained hamstring but also with shoulder soreness and an ankle sprain. Last year he was healthy until September 12, when he was hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball in one of those can't-watch-it injuries, suffering multiple facial fractures. Hard tissue injuries (bones) tend to fully heal and are as much bad luck as anything. Soft tissue injuries (muscles, ligaments, tendons, cartilage) can be recurring. Toronto shortstop Jose Reyes, for example, has been on the disabled list five times, and day-to-day several other times, with hamstring problems. Stanton's been on the DL only twice in is career (the hit-by-pitch last year was in September, when teams don't bother disabling players), and he had a healthy 2014 until the Brewers' Fiers beaned him, but his record isn't scot-free. (All injury data from Baseball Prospectus.)
• Sustainability of revenues. The reason baseball revenues have grown dramatically in this century is television. With the proliferation of DVRs, consumers can record the programs they like and watch them when they want, fast-fowarding through the commercials. Sports are one of the few events consumers watch live. So they see the ads for beer and trucks and insurance while watching a game that they skip while watching sitcoms. That has made sports programming particularly valuable to advertisers and, therefore, for the networks that carry them. Additionally, TV broadcasting has shifted from national networks to regional sports networks (RSNs), like NESN in New England, YES and SNY in New York, and MASN in Baltimore/Washington. Teams have national contracts with ESPN and FOX, but they also have local contracts with RSNs that can dwarf the national contracts. Cable subscribers pay to have RSNs bundled with other channels. However, there's been a move to "unbundle" cable, letting consumers pick and choose the channels they want rather than the average of 189 that they receive now. Will your great aunt want ESPN, much less the RSNs, if she could pick her channels? And if she doesn't, and many others don't, what will happen to RSN revenues? The prospects for unbundling, as well as the savings it might yield, are unclear. But Stanton's contract assumes a stable economic model in baseball. In my role as a financial analyst, I've often said that Wall Street has a penchant for seeing a point and drawing a line through it. Baseball's doing the same thing with its current revenue mix. What works today may not in 2027, the last year of Stanton's contract.

Overall, I can't get too excited over Stanton's contract. Baseball's rolling in dough; might as well give it to a marquee player. I question what the Marlins have in mind longer term, and I worry about his injury risk, but the focus here's on the field of play anyway.

Trailing 30 - August 31

Here are the top (and bottom) performers over the past 30 days, made possible through the magic of FanGraphs and its fabulous Leaders application. Comment for the week: Since we're at the end of August, this should give us a good picture of the contenders for the August awards. NL Player of the Month is between Atlanta's Justin Upton and Miami's Giancarlo Stanton; I'd guess the latter. The AL race is pretty wide open, maybe Detroit's Victor Martinez? The Pitchers of the Month seem pretty certain to be Baltomore's Chris Tillman in the AL and San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner in the NL.

   American League              National League

   Team W-L                     Team W-L      

1. Kansas City      19-9     1. Washington       19-9       

2. Baltimore        18-9     2. San Diego       16-10        

3. Cleveland        17-9     3. San Francisco   15-12         

4. Los Angeles     18-10     4. Chicago         16-13   

5. Seattle         16-10     5. St. Louis       15-13        

   Worst Team W-L               Worst Team W-L

1. Chicago          8-19     1. Arizona          8-18      

2. Toronto          8-17     2. Colorado        10-17       

3. Texas           10-17     3. Cincinnati      11-17      

4. Minnesota       11-17        New York        11-17
5. Boston          11-16     5. Atlanta         13-14

   Batting Average              Batting Average     

1. Abreu, Chi       .381     1. Jay, SL          .389        

2. V Martinez, Det  .354     2. Panik, SF        .385      

3. Ortiz, Bos       .342     3. Castro, Chi      .379           

4. Beltre, Tex      .333     4. Ramirez, Mil     .375          

5. Hardy, Bal       .326     5. Yelich, Fla      .343       

   Lowest Batting Average       Lowest Batting Average  

1. Davis, Bal       .154     1. Gregorius, SD    .145          

2. Moss, Oak        .178     2. Granderson, NY   .147       

3. Dominguez, Hou   .182     3. Rutledge, Col    .159
4. Napoli, Bos      .184     4. Jones, Mia       .187           

5. Kiermaier, TB    .188     5. Alcantara, Chi   .195      

   On-Base Percentage           On-Base Percentage  

1. Abreu, Chi       .469     1. Jay, SL          .484           

2. V Martinez, Det  .448     2. Stanton, Mia     .445            

3. Ortiz, Bos       .440     3. Martin, Pit      .438         

4. Donaldson, Oak   .425     4. Freeman, Atl     .433          

5. Beltre, Tex      .420     5. Werth, Was       .432       

      

   Slugging Percentage          Slugging Percentage   

1. Carter, Hou      .626     1. Stanton, Mia     .591         

2. Ortiz, Bos       .603     2. Arenado, Col     .583     

3. V Martinez, Det  .558     3. Posey, SF        .579       

4. Gordon, KC       .553     4. Harrison, Pit    .579       

5. Arcia, Min       .549     5. J Upton, Atl     .576        

          

   Home Runs                    Home Runs

1. Carter, Hou        10     1. Stanton, Mia        8
2. Gordon, KC          8     2. Baez, Chi           7        

3. Arcia, Min          7        Dickerson, Col      7

   Bautista, Tor       7        Duda, NY            7
   Davis, Bal          7        J Upton, Atl        7
        
   Runs                         Runs    

1. Holt, Bos          24     1. Rendon, Was        22        

2. Dozier, Min        23     2. Harrison, Pit      20     

3. Zobrist, TB        21     3. 4 with             19
   Santana, Min       21     
5. 3 with             20     

   RBI                          RBI      

1. Carter, Hou        29     1. J Upton, Atl       28        

   V Martinez, Det    29     2. Stanton, Mia       25      

3. Vargas, Min        24     3. Dickerson, Col     23       

4. Arcia, Min         23     4. Howard, Phi        21
   Longoria, TB       23     5. 2 with             20
                             

   Stolen Bases                 Stolen Bases             

1. Schafer, Min       10     1. Hamilton, Cin      11            

2. Cain, KC            9     2. Gordon, LA         10     

   Dyson, KC           9     3. Gomez, Mil          9   

   Ellsbury, NY        9        Revere, Phi         9
5. 2 with              7     5. Crawford, LA        8

                   

   Saves                        Saves

1. Holland, KC        11     1. Kimbrel, Atl        8

2. Britton, Bal        9        Papelbon, Phi       8

3. Robertson, NY       8        Rodriguez, Mil      8
   Rodney, Sea         8        Rondon, Chi         8

5. 2 with              7     5. 2 with              7

   ERA                          ERA

1. Tillman, Bal     1.33     1. Bumgarner, SF    1.58

2. Smyly, TB        1.50     2. Cosart, Mia      1.64

   Cobb, TB         1.50     3. Hendricks, Chi   1.69

4. Shoemaker, LA    1.57     4. Kershaw, LA      1.80

5. Paxton, Sea      1.65     5. Fiers, Mil       1.80

   Worst ERA                    Worst ERA

1. Webster, Bos     7.28     1. Lyles, Col       5.46

2. Carroll, Chi     7.22     2. Arrieta, Chi     5.34

3. Danks, Chi       6.75     3. Matzek, Col      5.30

4. Stroman, Tor     6.39     4. Kendrick, Phi    5.22

5. Kazmir, Oak      6.28     5. Wainwright, Phi  5.17

   WHIP                         WHIP

1. Smyly, TB        0.69     1. Bumgarner, SF    0.58

2. Carrasco, Cle    0.78     2. Fiers, Mil       0.66
3. Shoemaker, LA    0.79     3. Nuno, Ari        0.82

4. Tillman, Bal     0.79     4. Kershaw, LA      0.88
5. Duffy, KC        0.91     5. Vogelsong, SF    0.89

   Strikeouts                   Strikeouts

1. Sale, Chi          56     1. Bumgarner, SF      49      

2. Scherzer, Det      53     2. Kershaw, LA        44

3. Kluber, Cle        43     3. Strasburg, Was     43

4. Archer, TB         42     4. Fiers, Mil         41

5. 2 with             37     5. Kennedy, SD        39