Next Up: The Miami Marlins

Since the beginning of July, the Pirates have played 30 games against teams that, at the time of the game, had a winning record, and only 16 games against teams below .500. It hasn't hurt them, as they've played better against the winning teams (22-8) than the losing teams (9-7). Tonight start a streak of ten straight games against teams with records below .500--three of the five worst teams in the National League, in fact--with four games in Miami against the Marlins.

How Are They Doing Lately? This is probably the most salient fact about the Marlins: Their two most recognizable stars are right fielder Giancarlo Stanton and starting pitcher Jose Fernandez. Due to injuries (a broken bone in Stanton's hand, recovery from Tommy John surgery and a strained muscle for Fernandez), the two have not been active at the same time all season. As a result, the Marlins, picked by some (not I) to possibly contend this year, are tied with the Phillies for the worst record in the National League East, just percentage points ahead of the Rockies (whom the Pirates play next) for the worst record in baseball. Over the last 30 days, their 9-18 record is the fourth worst in the National League. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, the fifth fewest, while allowing 5.1, the third most. The Pirates, by contrast, arrive in Miami with the second-best record in the National League: 18-8, tied with the Mets.

What's Going Right? Marlins starting pitchers have a pretty terrible record over the past 30 days, with a 4-13 won-lost record and a 5.26 ERA, but one could argue that they've been unlucky: a .326 batting average on balls in play (the National League average is .308) and only 65% of baserunners left stranded (average 72%), both likely markers of luck as much as skill. With more normal performance, though, the starters would be average, not good. On offense, they've been the toughest team in the National League to strike out over the past 30 days, largely because they've swung at pitches outside the strike zone less frequently than any other team.

What's Going Wrong? One of the reasons the starting pitchers have allowed 35% of baserunners to score compared to the league average of 28% is the bullpen. The relievers' 4.48 ERA is the fourth worst in the league over the past 30 days. They've allowed the second highest walk rate in the league and allowed an above-average number of homers. At the plate, the Marlins' .249 batting average over the last 30 days is the fifth lowest in the league, their .311 on base percentage sixth lowest, and their .360 slugging percentage the worst. Their team speed has enabled them to leg out 13 triples over the last 30 days, the most in the league, but they are last in doubles with 29 (the only team with fewer than 35) and homers with 15 (four fewer than the next-worst team). 

Who's Hot? Left fielder Derek Dietrich leads the team in home runs (five), runs (17), RBI (14), walks (12), on base percentage (.376), and slugging percentage (.506) over the past 30 days. Second baseman Dee Gordon's hit .323 with a .368 on base percentage and eight stolen bases. Cole Gillespie has filled in at all three outfield positions, batting .328 with a .388 on base percentage. Over the last 30 days, rookie left-handed starter Justin Nicolino (he'll start Thursday night's game, opposing Gerrit Cole) has a 3.60 ERA but only seven strikeouts over 20 innings. Tomorrow night's starter, lefty Brad Hand, has a 3.13 ERA. The only Marlins starters with lower ERAs over the last 30 days are Fernandez, who's hurt, and Dan Haren, who's been traded. Setup man Bryan Morris has six holds and a 2.53 ERA over the past 30 days, though he's walked as many batters as he's struck out (five each in 10.2 innnings).

Who's Not? Between injuries and trades, the Marlins have had to mix-and-match with the starting rotation, and ten different starters have gotten the ball over the past 30 days. Excluding Nicolino, Hand, Fernandez, Haren, and another traded veteran, Mat Latos, the remaining Marlins starters have a combined 7.66 ERA over 15 starts. Closer A.J. Ramos had given up four homers, seven walks, and 11 hits over his last 11 innings, good for an 8.18 ERA. Rookie first baseman Justin Bour has cooled off, with a .215/.295/.316 slash line over the past 30 days, and third baseman Casey McGehee has been worse at .156/.240/.200. Catcher J.T. Realmuto's hit .205 with a .266 on base percentage during the span. 

What's the Outlook? The Marlins are not a good ball club, but the Pirates haven't always done well against weaker competition (4-9 against Cincinnati, 6-6 against Milwaukee). However, they did sweep three from Miami in May, when they had Stanton in the lineup. With the Pirates playing ten games against three of the worst teams in the league at the same time the Cardinals play ten against teams with winning records (the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Nationals), there's an opportunity for the Pirates to pick up ground heading into a Labor Day weekend matchup in St. Louis.

Next Up: The Miami Marlins

I was at a college reunion over the weekend so I didn't do a preview of the Pirates' series against the Mets. I would've said some of the same things I'd said about the Twins: team's been a pleasant surprise to date but appears to be overachieving. What I wouldn't have said was that the series would turn out to be a shellacking: Pirates outscoring the Mets 21-4, beating Thor and The Dark Knight along the way. As a result, the team's offense looks less inept: tied for the fourth-worst park-adjusted OPS, fourth-worst on base percentage with the bases empty, below-average offensive performance at three positions (first base, shortstop, and right field). Hey, those are all improvements! The two most disappointing players in April are having a May resurgence. Josh Harrison's slash line has improved from .213/.250/.363 in April to .312/.333/.455, while Andrew McCutchen's gone from .194/.302/.333 in April to .321/.411/.580 in May. The Pirates will attempt to keep it going, hosting three games against a Miami Marlins team that appears to be in disarray, before starting a West Coast swing on Thursday.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Marlins' 12-16 record over the past 30 days is the fifth-worst in the National League. Over the past two weeks, they're 3-10, the worst record in the league. A week ago today, they fired their manager, Mike Redmond, and replaced him with their then-general manager, Dan Jennings. Jennings' managerial experience consisted of...well, he coached at a high school in Alabama in the 1980s. Seriously. Redmond was fired following after a 1-7 run, culminating in the loss of three straight to the Braves. Under Jennings, the Marlins extended the losing streak to eight straight before taking two over the weekend from Baltimore.

What's Going Right? Over the past 30 days, Marlins starting pitchers have a 3.83 ERA, sixth best in the league. They're helped by a home park that suppresses offense, but still, for a team that's had arguably its two best starters (Jose Fernandez and Henderson Alvarez) on the disabled list for all but four starts this year, that's not bad. The relievers have a 3.50 ERA over the past 30 days, sixth best in the league, but that's misleading.

What's Going Wrong? Disregard that reliever ERA: The Marlins have four saves and six blown saves over the past 30 days. By the measure Win Probability Added, which calculates the odds that a team will win a game at any point, the Marlins relievers have been, by far, the worst in the league. On offense, the team has been sixth in batting average over the past 30 days but tenth in on base percentage and thirteenth in slugging percentage, indicating that they've gotten a bunch of singles but little else; they're eleventh in walks, fourteenth in doubles, and tied for twelfth in homers. 

Who's Hot? The Marlins offense consists largely of second baseman and leadoff hitter Dee Gordon and rightfielder and No. 3 hitter Giancarlo Stanton. Over the past 30 days, Gordon's batting .380 with nine stolen bases (both first in the league) while Stanton has eight homers (tied for sixth) and had driven in 26 runs (fourth). Outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, 41, is defying time with a .314 batting average over the past 30 days. The team's best starting pitcher has been Dan Haren, who threatened to retire during the offseason when the California native was traded away from the Dodgers in the deal that brought Gordon to Miami. He's 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA over the past 30 days. Fellow starters David Phelps (1-1, 3.07 ERA) and Tom Koehler (2-1, 2.41) have been solid as well. None of the three get a lot of strikeouts, which suggests they might struggle to keep up their recent performance. Reliever A.J. Ramos, who became the team's closer on May 12, has two saves and a 0.71 ERA over the past 30 days, and setup man Sam Dyson has a 1.93 ERA over 14 innings.

Who's Not? Third baseman Martin Prado exemplifies the problem with the Marlins' offense. He's batting .267 over the past 30 days, above the league average of .255. But he's walked only four times and he's had only five extra-base hits to go with 26 singles, so his on base percentage of .309 compares to a league average of .317 and his .345 slugging percentage compares to a league average of .400. As I said, the Marlins get a bunch of singles and little else. Two players who were expected to be significant contributors to the offense have been awful: Left fielder Christian Yelich has a .189/.283/.264 slash line over the last 30 days, and first baseman Michael Morse has been worse: .203/.239/.234 with no homers. The Marlins starters after Haren, Phelps, and Koehler have been bad, and demoted closer Steve Cishek has two saves, three blown saves, and 6.08 ERA over the past 30 days. 

What's the Outlook? The Marlins were viewed by some as a playoff contender this year. (Not I.) Instead, they're last in the National League East, and their 18-27 record gives them the third-worst winning percentage in baseball. The main hope is the return of Fernandez from Tommy John surgery sometime over the summer. The Pirates will face one of the Marlins' best starters, Phelps, tonight, countering with Charlie Morton's first start following offseason hip surgery. The struggling Jeff Locke (6.67 ERA, fourth-worst in the NL over the past 30 days) and the not-struggling Gerrit Cole (1.95, sixth-best) start the next two nights. The Marlins haven't announced their starters. If the Pirates can take the series 2-1, they'll return to .500. A sweep would put them two games over .500 for the first time since April.

Things I Didn't Know: NL East

In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.

I started with the NL West and Central. Now, the NL East.

Atlanta Braves, 96-66: So that's why they're giving Craig Kimbrel all that money...Relief pitchers, as a group, are not terribly consistent. A good bullpen one year can be lousy the next. The Brewers were fifth in the NL in reliever ERA in 2011, last in 2012, and third last year. The Dodgers were 14th in 2011, third in 2012, 9th last year. You get the picture. They bounce around. Except the Braves. The Braves have been first, second, and first in reliever ERA the past three seasons. That's amazing consistency. And Kimbrel, who's led the league in saves each of the past three years, has a career 1.39 ERA. You know how many pitchers have an ERA that low through their first four seasons, minimum 200 IP? One guy: Craig Kimbrel.

Washington Nationals, 86-76: The Nats were a team of extremes last year. They had a 24-41 record against teams that finished at .500 or better. No team had fewer wins against such teams. They also had a 62-35 record against teams with losing records. Nobody had more. Part of this was because they play in the NL East, where they were one of only two teams with a winning record, but that was true in the NL West too, and neither the Diamondbacks nor the Dodgers matched the Nationals' dominance of bad teams or inability to beat good ones.

New York Mets, 74-88: The Mets were a losing team last year, but they were the fourth-best road team in the NL last year, one of only four to finish above .500 on the road (41-40). That, of course, meant that they had a losing record at home. Only the Mets and Cubs lost were worse at home than on the road. The Mets were the fourth-best team in the NL on the road and the second-worst at home. Mets fans who wanted to see their team win had to travel. 

Philadelphia Phillies, 73-89: The Phillies scored the third fewest runs in the league last year, 610, which is bad enough, but that figure is inflated by the games they play at home at Citizens Bank Park, a hitters' park, where their 344 runs scored ranked fifth in the league. Which means that on the road...Yeah. Awful. Scored 266 runs; only the Marlins were worse. Fewest road home runs in the league. Second-fewest doubles. This was a terrible offense, masked by the home ballpark.

Miami Marlins, 62-100: The Marlins finished last in the National League East. They had the worst record in the league. They were really bad. So, given my west-to-east order of presentation, they're the last NL team I'll hit. So it's by coincidence, not design, that I saved the best for last: This is the most amazing tidbit I found. THE MIAMI MARLINS HAD THE BEST WINNING PERCENTAGE IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE WHEN LEADING A GAME AFTER SEVEN INNINGS. I'm serious. Quick, who was their closer? (Steve Cishek, 34 saves) Who were their setup guys? (Mike Dunn, Chad Qualls, A.J. Ramos) How in the world did they win more of the games that they led after seven (41-2, .953 winning percentage) than the Dodgers (71-4, .947), Braves (72-6, .923), Cardinals (86-6, .935), and Pirates 74-5, .937), other than that they played a lot fewer of them? I don't know either. But they did.