Next Up: The Miami Marlins

Since the beginning of July, the Pirates have played 30 games against teams that, at the time of the game, had a winning record, and only 16 games against teams below .500. It hasn't hurt them, as they've played better against the winning teams (22-8) than the losing teams (9-7). Tonight start a streak of ten straight games against teams with records below .500--three of the five worst teams in the National League, in fact--with four games in Miami against the Marlins.

How Are They Doing Lately? This is probably the most salient fact about the Marlins: Their two most recognizable stars are right fielder Giancarlo Stanton and starting pitcher Jose Fernandez. Due to injuries (a broken bone in Stanton's hand, recovery from Tommy John surgery and a strained muscle for Fernandez), the two have not been active at the same time all season. As a result, the Marlins, picked by some (not I) to possibly contend this year, are tied with the Phillies for the worst record in the National League East, just percentage points ahead of the Rockies (whom the Pirates play next) for the worst record in baseball. Over the last 30 days, their 9-18 record is the fourth worst in the National League. They've scored 4.0 runs per game, the fifth fewest, while allowing 5.1, the third most. The Pirates, by contrast, arrive in Miami with the second-best record in the National League: 18-8, tied with the Mets.

What's Going Right? Marlins starting pitchers have a pretty terrible record over the past 30 days, with a 4-13 won-lost record and a 5.26 ERA, but one could argue that they've been unlucky: a .326 batting average on balls in play (the National League average is .308) and only 65% of baserunners left stranded (average 72%), both likely markers of luck as much as skill. With more normal performance, though, the starters would be average, not good. On offense, they've been the toughest team in the National League to strike out over the past 30 days, largely because they've swung at pitches outside the strike zone less frequently than any other team.

What's Going Wrong? One of the reasons the starting pitchers have allowed 35% of baserunners to score compared to the league average of 28% is the bullpen. The relievers' 4.48 ERA is the fourth worst in the league over the past 30 days. They've allowed the second highest walk rate in the league and allowed an above-average number of homers. At the plate, the Marlins' .249 batting average over the last 30 days is the fifth lowest in the league, their .311 on base percentage sixth lowest, and their .360 slugging percentage the worst. Their team speed has enabled them to leg out 13 triples over the last 30 days, the most in the league, but they are last in doubles with 29 (the only team with fewer than 35) and homers with 15 (four fewer than the next-worst team). 

Who's Hot? Left fielder Derek Dietrich leads the team in home runs (five), runs (17), RBI (14), walks (12), on base percentage (.376), and slugging percentage (.506) over the past 30 days. Second baseman Dee Gordon's hit .323 with a .368 on base percentage and eight stolen bases. Cole Gillespie has filled in at all three outfield positions, batting .328 with a .388 on base percentage. Over the last 30 days, rookie left-handed starter Justin Nicolino (he'll start Thursday night's game, opposing Gerrit Cole) has a 3.60 ERA but only seven strikeouts over 20 innings. Tomorrow night's starter, lefty Brad Hand, has a 3.13 ERA. The only Marlins starters with lower ERAs over the last 30 days are Fernandez, who's hurt, and Dan Haren, who's been traded. Setup man Bryan Morris has six holds and a 2.53 ERA over the past 30 days, though he's walked as many batters as he's struck out (five each in 10.2 innnings).

Who's Not? Between injuries and trades, the Marlins have had to mix-and-match with the starting rotation, and ten different starters have gotten the ball over the past 30 days. Excluding Nicolino, Hand, Fernandez, Haren, and another traded veteran, Mat Latos, the remaining Marlins starters have a combined 7.66 ERA over 15 starts. Closer A.J. Ramos had given up four homers, seven walks, and 11 hits over his last 11 innings, good for an 8.18 ERA. Rookie first baseman Justin Bour has cooled off, with a .215/.295/.316 slash line over the past 30 days, and third baseman Casey McGehee has been worse at .156/.240/.200. Catcher J.T. Realmuto's hit .205 with a .266 on base percentage during the span. 

What's the Outlook? The Marlins are not a good ball club, but the Pirates haven't always done well against weaker competition (4-9 against Cincinnati, 6-6 against Milwaukee). However, they did sweep three from Miami in May, when they had Stanton in the lineup. With the Pirates playing ten games against three of the worst teams in the league at the same time the Cardinals play ten against teams with winning records (the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Nationals), there's an opportunity for the Pirates to pick up ground heading into a Labor Day weekend matchup in St. Louis.

Next Up: The San Francisco Giants

The Pirates' first west coast swing of the season continues, with three games in San Francisco following a split of a four-game series against the San Diego Padres. Gerrit Cole opposes Ryan Vogelsong tonight, A.J. Burnett vs. Chris Heston tomorrow night, and Francisco Liriano opposes Tim Hudson in the getaway (12:45 PM local start time) on Wednesday.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Giants were 21-9 in May. That's the most games won in the majors. They scored 4.9 runs per game in May, the most in the league. They allowed 3.6 runs per game, fewer than all but the Dodgers and Cardinals. In short, they've been on a roll, looking more like the team that's won the World Series in every odd-numbered year this decade than the team that didn't go to the postseason in the odd-numbered years.

What's Going Right? On offense, the team is first in batting average (.291) and on-base percentage (.348) and second in slugging percentage (.439) in May. They tied the Mets for seventh in homers but they were first in singles, second in doubles and triples, and sixth in walks while being the third-hardest team to strike out. On the mound, the starters' 3.39 ERA was fourth-best in May. The relievers' 3.80 ERA ranked only ninth in the 15-team league but the bullpen had the second-most saves in the league (ten) and were in a four-way tie for the second-fewest blows saves (two).

What's Going Wrong? Well, that bullpen ERA of 3.80 isn't anything special.

Who's Hot? On offense, the "Who's Not" list is a lot shorter. Five players compiled batting averages of .300+ and slugging percentages of .500+ during the month: catcher Buster Posey, first baseman Brandon Belt, second baseman Joe Panik, shortstop Brandon Crawford, and outfielder Gregor Blanco. On the mound, Vogelsong was 4-0 with a 1.14 ERA and World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner was 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA. Tim Lincecum also posted a 4-1 record in May, with a 2.83 ERA, but he was shelled in his last couple outings, allowing 8 earned runs in 9.1 innings. Closer Santiago Casilla had nine saves and two wins in May to go with a 2.84 ERA.

Who's Not? As noted above, the Giants got tremendous performance from four of their infielders in May. Third base, though, has been a disappointment. The team designated the opening day starter, Casey McGehee (.235/.291/.294 slash line) for assignment. This being the Giants in May, though, his replacement, Matt Duffy, hit .313 during the month. 

On the mound, some of the relievers have struggled (Jean Machi, 8.56 ERA in May; Jeremy Affeldt, 8.64) and the Pirates will face the Giants' two weakest starters in May, Heston (4.58 ERA) and Hudson (5.11).

What's the Outlook? I really don't think the Giants are as good as their May record would indicate. That being said, they're probably the second-best team, after the Cardinals, that the Pirates have faced this year. Fortunately, the Bucs have their three best starters (I'm not counting Charlie Morton, who's been fantastic but in only two starts) lined up against the underbelly of the Giants' rotation. Taking two of three would be great for the Pirates.

Sweet Play of the Day: July 23

You may have seen this play from a couple week ago, when Cincinnati Reds speedster Billy Hamilton somehow evaded a tag in a game against the Pirates:

Last night, Braves outfielder Jason Heyward pulled off a similar move against the Marlins. The thing is, Hamilton's listed at 6'0", 160, and widely acknowledged to be the fastest player in baseball. Heyward's a fabulous athlete, but he's also 6'5", 245, so there's a lot more of him to contort along the baseline.



(Note that the Marlins third baseman is Casey McGehee. Note, too, that when I discussed what a nice year he's having, I didn't talk about defense.)

What's Going On With: Casey McGehee

Miami's Casey McGehee is the frontrunner for National League Comeback Player of the Year, and here's why:

Year	Age	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2010	27	MIL	157	610	70	174	38	1	23	104	1	1	50	102	.285	.337	.464	.801	114
2011	28	MIL	155	546	46	122	24	2	13	67	0	3	45	104	.223	.280	.346	.626	69
2012	29	TOT	114	318	36	69	16	1	9	41	1	1	29	70	.217	.284	.358	.643	77
2013	30	TOH	144	513	78	150	30	0	28	93	2	3	70	119	.292	.376	.515	.891
2014	31	MIA	96	373	38	120	21	1	2	56	2	0	42	55	.322	.387	.399	.786	118

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/21/2014.

To summarize: In 2010, he was the Milwaukee Brewers' starting third baseman, with an above-average on base plus slugging (his 114 OPS+ indicates he was 14% better than average, adjusted for his ballpark) and 104 RBI. In 2011, he was the starting third baseman for the NL Central champion Brewers, though his offensive stats nosedived. He was traded from Milwaukee to Pittsburgh before the 2012 season and from Pittsburgh to the Yankees in July that year and continued to struggle at the plate. (TOT above lists his totals for the two teams.) Granted free agency and unable to land a major league gig, he signed with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles (TOH) in Japanese Pacific League. McGehee hit well in Japan, and this spring, he signed a contract with the Miami Marlins. Of course, the Marlins are known for penny-pinching, and spending $1.1 million for a 31-year-old third baseman who was washed up in the majors two years ago seemed like a move destined to keep the Marlins-as-joke narrative alive.

Instead, McGehee is, at this writing, third in the National League in batting average, sixth in on base percentage, first in hits, and first in singles. It's not all great--he leads the league in grounding into double plays and he's hit only two homers as the Marlins' cleanup hitter--but his 118 OPS+ is second on the team to slugger Giancarlo Stanton. McGehee is a big reason why the Marlins, picked by many to be the worst team in the league, are, well, tolerable, with a 45-52 record that's better than the Padres, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Cubs, and a surprisingly strong fourth in the league in runs per game.

So What's Different? Mostly, it's plate discipline. It's really as simple as that. In 2011, his last year as a major league regular, he swung at 27.4% of pitches outside the strike zone, the 41st highest total among 66 in the National League. That's decent, but not remarkable. This year, only four NL batting title qualifiers have swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone than his 22.6%. As a result, he's walked in 8.5% of plate appearances compared to 7.5% in 2011, and he's made contact 86% of the time he's swung, compared to 83% in 2011. 

And he's been a little lucky. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .369. That's the second best in the NL, where the average is .299. Very high or very low BABIPs are usually not sustainable. McGehee certainly hasn't slowed down at all this year--his slugging percentage has improved every month this year, and he's batting .390 so far in July--but it's reasonable to assume he'll cool off some as his BABIP moves toward a more typical level.

Is It Sustainable? McGehee has cut down on his swing and become more selective at the plate. As a result, he's gone from being a low-average power hitter to a singles-hitting high-average hitter. It's a remarkable transformation. At 31, age will slow him down, and his BABIP will return to Earth, and he's probably not a reasonable choice for a No. 4 hitter. (There are six Marlins with more homers and four with a higher slugging percentage.) So no, he's not a good candidate to finish the year with the third highest batting average and sixth highest on base percentage in the National League. But as comeback stories, his is hard to beat. 

2014 Predictions: NL East

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here are predictions for the NL West and NL Central and the American League West, Central, and East.

Atlanta Braves - 96-66 in 2013, 4.2 runs scored per game (13th in MLB), 3.4 runs allowed per game (1st in MLB): Color me skeptical. The Braves got a lot of credit for locking down their young stars over the offseason, but what's that got to do with 2014? Here are two pairs of numbers that worry me about Atlanta: .266/.357/.512 vs. .236/.284/.473, and 22.2 vs. 11.6. The former pair is departed catcher Brian McCann's slash line against righties vs. that of his replacement this year, Evan Gattis. That may not be entirely fair, given that McCann bats left and Gattis right, but hey, 72.5% of plate appearances in the NL last year were with righties on the mound. The second pair is an estimate of the number of runs McCann saves per 7000 pitches (roughly a season) by pitch framing--catching a pitch on the fringe of the strike zone in such a way that the umpire calls it a strike instead of a ball--compared to Gattis. That may sound esoteric, but framing is something that can be measured, given that there are cameras in every ballpark the measure where a pitch crosses the plate and how it's called by the umpire. McCann's consistently been one of the very best. I think McCann's departure hurts the Braves' ability to both score and prevent runs. And that's before we consider the injuries to the team's starting pitchers this spring. (Pitch framing stats from Baseball Prospectus.) Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 89-73.

Washington Nationals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): The Nats still have questions at second base, where their .670 OPS was fourth-worst in the league, and they're hoping center fielder Denard Span plays more like he did after the All-Star Break (.302/.337/.413) than before (.263/.320/.358). But they added Doug Fister, a quality starter, for spare parts, bolstering an already-strong rotation. Prediction: A few more runs scored, a few fewer allowed, 90-72, and I'm going to regret that if Fister's elbow inflammation reported this month turns out to be serious.

New York Mets - 74-88, 3.8 runs scored per game (24th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Mets added three 30+ free agents (SP Bartolo Colon, 41 in May; LF Curtis Granderson, 33; RF Chris Young, 30) to some promising youngsters (CF Juan Lagares, whose bat not keep his outstanding glove in the lineup; SP Zack Wheeler; SP Noah Syndergaard, who will probably start the year in the minors). But oh, for those Matt Harvey days... Prediction: More runs scored, more allowed, 74-88.

Philadelphia Phillies - 73-89, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.6 runs allowed per game (25th in MLB): The Phillies are making noises about embracing modern fielding analysis, which should help their newly-acquired groundball pitchers A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez. But other than those moves, they're still a really old team (key offseason acquisitions: Marlon Byrd, 36; Burnett, 37; Hernandez, 33) that can't score runs even in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, fewer allowed, 70-92.

Miami Marlins - 62-100, 3.2 runs scored per game (30th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): The Marlins play in a pitchers' park, but their offense was really was bad as it looked: They scored easily the fewest runs in baseball at home and on the road. Among the new starters this year are 2B Rafael Furcal, who is 36, missed last year with Tommy John surgery, and will start at second base for the first time since 2002; and 3B Casey McGehee, who last year batted .292 with 28 homers and 93 RBI--in Japan. At least they'll have a full season of Jose Fernandez, knock on wood. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 65-97.