Next Up: The Washington Nationals

The Pirates will hope for improvement over their first series against the Nationals in mid-June, in which they were, well, annihilated. They lost three games in Washington by the aggregate score of 19-3 and were outhit 34-14, including Max Scherzer's near-perfect no-hitter. 

How Are They Doing Lately? The Nationals are 14-9 over the last 30 days, the second-best record in the National League. They've scored 3.5 runs per game, the sixth fewest in the league, and allowed 2.9 per game, the second fewest. A 14-9 record is about what you'd expect from a team with that run differential. They've opened up a three game lead over the Mets in the National League East, though their overall record of 51-42 is the poorest of any division leader, and is 2.5 games worse than the Pirates' 54-40.

What's Going Right? The Nationals' starters have a 2.96 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth best in the league. They've been by far the stingiest starters at issuing walks, just 3.5% of batters faced (the league average is more than twice as high), and although they've allowed a lot of fly balls (38% of balls put in play, second highest in the league), 11% of them have been infield flies (fourth most) and only 8% have gone over the fence (fourth fewest). They're No. 1 at pitching in the strike zone and No. 2 at inducing swings outside the zone. The relievers have followed a similar pattern over the past 30 days: Fourth-lowest ERA at 2.56, second lowest walk rate, third highest percentage of fly balls staying in the infield, fourth highest percentage of pitches in the zone, and third highest rate of swings outside the strike zone.

Who's Hot? You've probably heard this before, but right fielder Bryce Harper is having a great year. Over the last 30 days, though he's cooled off a bit, he's still been the team's best hitter, with a .294/.435/.529 slash line and three homers. Clint Robinson, pressed into action by injuries to left fielder Jayson Werth and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, has a solid .369 on base percentage over the past 30 days. 

The Pirates will face Doug Fister, who has a 3.38 ERA over the past 30 days, tonight, then the same three pitchers they faced in June: Scherzer (3.03 ERA, one walk and 28 hits over his last 35.2 innings), Gio Gonazlez (1.89 ERA in three starts over the last 30 days), and Joe Ross who's posted 2.70 in four starts for the Nationals as he's split time between Washington, AA Harrisburg, and AAA Syracuse. Closer Drew Storen's had a hot hand, with a 0.87 ERA and nine saves over the past 30 days.

Who's Not? You've probably heard this before, but shortstop Ian Desmond is having a terrible year. Over the last 30 days, he has a .181/.238/.333 slash line. (The league average is .253/.315/.397.) Rookie Michael Taylor, pressed into action action by injury to center fielder Denard Span, has been barely better: .230/.264/.310. \

It's hard to find a Nationals pitcher who hasn't been at least average, but over the last 30 days, Tanner Roark has had a 7.71 ERA in five relief appearances and, in one start, allowed eight runs in 3.1 innings.

What's the Outlook? The Nationals, while pretty clearly the class of their division, continue to underperform, hurt by injuries to Werth, Zimmerman, Span, starter Stephen Strasburg, and third baseman Anthony Rendon. When everybody's healthy, they're a formidable club. But not everybody's healthy. This is a chance for the Pirates to get back on the winning track, having started play after the All-Star break 1-5, in front of the home fans at PNC Park.

Flyover: Washington Nationals

Well, the season's over--dramatically, in the case of the Washington Nationals--and so is this series. At this point, the relevant teams are the ten that could still win the World Series. Nine of them are the Orioles, Tigers, Royals, A's, Angels, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants. Washington's the tenth. As a reminder, for each team, I'm looking at how they've done over the past 30 days.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Nationals have the best record in the majors over the past 30 days, 20-9. They scored 4.0 runs per game, seventh in the league, and gave up 3.1, the third fewest. (The league averages were 3.9 per game). At 96-66, they tied the Orioles for the second-best record in baseball. 

What's Going Right? They're seventh in batting average (.254), fifth in on base percentage (.325), and fifth in slugging percentage (.397) over the past 30 days. The league average slash line, by contrast, is .249/.310/.379. They've walked in 8.5% of plate appearances, second most in the league, indicative of their good plate discipline (swinging at 30% of pitches outside the strike zone, fourth fewest in the league). They're fourth in the league in homers with 30, as is their percentage of fly balls that go over the fence, 12%. The latter, well above the league average of 9%, suggests they may have been a little homer-lucky, as their full season average is 10.6%. Complementing their power, the Nationals led the league in stolen bases over the past 30 days with 22, and they've been more successful at their stolen base attempts (73%) than average (68%). All told, the offense has been good and balanced.

The pitchers' 2.59 ERA over the past 30 days is second in the league. The starters' 2.32 is easily first (the Pirates are second at 2.56) and the bullpen's 3.23 is seventh compared to the league average of 3.73. The pitchers have also epitomized the On The Field Of Play mantra, it's good to throw strikes, it's better to get strikes, as they've been the best in the league at throwing strikes over the past 30 days (51.3% of pitches in the strike zone) and the best at getting strikes (opposing batters swinging at 33.6% of pitches outside the strike zone). 

What's Going Wrong? The starting pitchers have probably been a little lucky. Three of their indicators of luck--batting average on balls in play, home runs as a percentage of fly balls, and baserunners stranded--are so far below the league averages over the past 30 days that they are likely to revert toward the mean. The starters have allowed just a .262 batting average on (non-homer) balls in play compared to a league average of .307, they've allowed homers on only 5.6% of fly balls compared to a league average of 8.5%, and they've stranded 76% of baserunners compared to a league average of 72%. I'm not suggesting they'll revert to the mean--this is a talented rotation--but their seasonlong averages of .292, 8.5%, and 75% seem more realistic. Not to worry, though: Washington's 3.04 ERA for the full year is the best in the majors.

Who's Hot? The Nats' outfield, that's who. Bryce Harper in left, Denard Span in center, and Jayson Werth in right have combined to bat .308 with a .398 on base percentage and a .488 slugging percentage over the past 30 days. Again, the league average slash line is just .249/.310/.379. Werth, who's drawn 20 walks, second most in the league, has a league-high on base percentage at .470. Third baseman Anthony Rendon has also been hot too, batting .319 with a .406 on base percentage and .484 slugging percentage.

As for the starting pitchers, the big question going into the postseason is which one goes to the bullpen. The starting five is Jordan Zimmermann (4-0, 1.32 ERA), Stephen Strasburg (4-1, 1.13 ERA), Doug Fister (4-1, 1.87 ERA), Gio Gonzalez (4-1, 2.48 ERA), and Tanner Roark (3-2, 3.09 ERA). Drew Storen took over as the team's closer and didn't allow an earned run during the month, compiling ten saves.

Who's Not? The only hitters with a cold bat over the past 30 days are second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera, acquired from the Indians at the trade deadline (.211/.287/.344 slash line) and catcher Wilson Ramos (.185/.202/.272). The bullpen, despite Storen's September, is probably the team's weak spot. Storen got his job because Rafael Soriano blew up, compiling a 6.48 ERA in the second half of the season after a 0.97 ERA up to the All-Star break. Over the past 30 days, no Nationals reliever with over seven innings pitched has an ERA below 3.50 except Storen.
  
What's the Outlook? The Nationals don't seem to me to have any noticeable holes. The bullpen's not great, but with that starting rotation, they aren't overly reliant on their relievers. They'll get the winner of the Giants-Pirates wild card game for a five-game series starting Friday. They will be favored to win, with good reason. Which probably means they'll get swept or something. 

What's Going On With: Joe Nathan

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	ERA	G	GF	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP
2012 ★	37	TEX	AL	3	5	2.80	66	62	37	64.1	55	20	7	13	78	157	1.057
2013 ★	38	TEX	AL	6	2	1.39	67	61	43	64.2	36	10	2	22	73	297	0.897
2014	39	DET	AL	3	2	6.57	27	22	13	24.2	27	18	4	13	21	64	1.622

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/18/2014.

What's The Story? The Tigers, perennially in need of bullpen help, signed closer Joe Nathan as a free agent over the winter. Some thought that the team's other two big trades, sending first baseman Prince Fielder to Texas and starter Doug Fister to Washington, were made in part to clear salary space for Nathan, whom the Tigers are paying $9 million this year and $10 million in 2015. Though this article wondered whether age might catch up with Nathan, his track record through age 38 was pretty unimpeachable. Here's a list of saves leaders between the ages of 29 and 38, a period during which Nathan lost a year and a half due to injury:

Player	SV	G	GF	W	L	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
Mariano Rivera	398	651	598	46	39	716.0	543	166	143	649	2.09	217	33
Trevor Hoffman	384	582	502	25	36	598.0	458	167	146	655	2.51	159	50
Joe Nathan	340	593	517	33	20	592.1	400	141	169	712	2.14	204	43
Lee Smith	329	601	501	35	50	670.0	598	228	246	688	3.06	134	53
Billy Wagner	315	601	510	28	22	622.1	415	147	174	774	2.13	205	54
Francisco Cordero	304	609	495	37	40	598.0	539	220	256	596	3.31	133	45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/18/2014.

It hasn't worked out as planned. As you can see from the table at the top, Nathan's been terrible. Among American League relievers with at least 20 innings pitched, he ranks 80 out of 83 in ERA and 75 in WHIP. He's a big contributor to Detroit's league-worst 4.67 relief ERA. He's striking out fewer batters and walking more than any time since he became a reliever in 2003.

If You Don't Want to Read All the Rest of This: He's not getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone, he's shown a propensity for the longball, and, well, he's old. 

What's He Throwing?
Against Lefties:
Year   Fastball Slider  Curve  Sinker   Change
2012      48%     19%     22%     12%      0%
2013      28%     33%     14%     26%      0%
2014      45%     18%     22%     18%      3%

Against Righties:
Year   Fastball Slider  Curve  Sinker   Change
2012      53%     35%      7%      5%      0%
2013      50%     39%      5%      5%      0%
2014      40%     50%      5%      4%      0%

Overall:
Year   Fastball Slider  Curve  Sinker   Change
2012      50%     25%     16%      9%      0%
2013      38%     35%     10%     16%      0%
2014      45%     33%     14%      9%      2%

There's really not a lot of change in his repertoire overall, but he's changed his approach toward both lefties (more fastballs, fewer sliders--much like he pitched in 2012) and righties (fewer fastballs, more sliders). Lefties are pounding him (.391 on base percentage, .455 slugging percentage - that's basically Tony Gwynn's career) and righties are hitting him harder (.320 on base, .395 slugging) than they have in years.

What Are The Results?
Year      Zone%    O-Swing%   HR/FB%

2012      51.1%     32.4%     13.0%
2013      49.4%     31.9%      3.0%
2014      48.9%     27.6%     13.8%
Career    48.1%     33.1%      7.3%

Remember the rule: It's good to throw strikes, but better to get strikes. So far this year, 49% of Nathan's pitches are in the strike zone (Zone%). That's down a little from recent years, though it's still OK. More worryingly, though, he's getting batters to swing at less than 28% of pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). Among AL relievers with 20 or more innings, he's middle of the pack (41 of 83) at pitching in the strike zone but 54th at getting batters to chase. Last year he was in the top third at inducing swings outside the strike zone.

Nathan likes to pitch to the left side of the plate (inside to right-handed hitters, outside to lefties). In 2012, he got batters to swing at 31% of pitches outside the strike zone thrown to that side of the plate. It was 29% last year but plunged to 24% this year. As a result, he's walking more batters. Plus, when batters hit balls in the air, they're going out more, as his ratio of home runs to fly balls (HR/FB%) is way up, from 3% last year to 14% this year.

This is not about a lack of control, as his Zone% indicates. It's about his pitches outside the strike zone being easier to lay off, and those in the strike zone easier to hit.

What Does the Future Hold? His home runs per fly ball percentage has been wildly eccentric the past few years and could very well stabilize at closer to his lifetime average of 7% or the league average of 11%. That'd help lower his home run rate.

But his inability to get strikes on pitches outside the zone...that's a problem. Batters are laying off those pitches and waiting for him to throw in the zone, where they're batting .377 against him. There's not an obvious problem, like a lack of velocity or an inability to throw strikes. Maybe it's just that time's catching up with a 39-year-old arm. But unless he can start fooling hitters again, the ninth inning could be tough for yet another year in Detroit.

(All data here from Brooks Baseball and Baseball-Reference.) 

2014 Predictions: NL East

As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.

Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here are predictions for the NL West and NL Central and the American League West, Central, and East.

Atlanta Braves - 96-66 in 2013, 4.2 runs scored per game (13th in MLB), 3.4 runs allowed per game (1st in MLB): Color me skeptical. The Braves got a lot of credit for locking down their young stars over the offseason, but what's that got to do with 2014? Here are two pairs of numbers that worry me about Atlanta: .266/.357/.512 vs. .236/.284/.473, and 22.2 vs. 11.6. The former pair is departed catcher Brian McCann's slash line against righties vs. that of his replacement this year, Evan Gattis. That may not be entirely fair, given that McCann bats left and Gattis right, but hey, 72.5% of plate appearances in the NL last year were with righties on the mound. The second pair is an estimate of the number of runs McCann saves per 7000 pitches (roughly a season) by pitch framing--catching a pitch on the fringe of the strike zone in such a way that the umpire calls it a strike instead of a ball--compared to Gattis. That may sound esoteric, but framing is something that can be measured, given that there are cameras in every ballpark the measure where a pitch crosses the plate and how it's called by the umpire. McCann's consistently been one of the very best. I think McCann's departure hurts the Braves' ability to both score and prevent runs. And that's before we consider the injuries to the team's starting pitchers this spring. (Pitch framing stats from Baseball Prospectus.) Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 89-73.

Washington Nationals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): The Nats still have questions at second base, where their .670 OPS was fourth-worst in the league, and they're hoping center fielder Denard Span plays more like he did after the All-Star Break (.302/.337/.413) than before (.263/.320/.358). But they added Doug Fister, a quality starter, for spare parts, bolstering an already-strong rotation. Prediction: A few more runs scored, a few fewer allowed, 90-72, and I'm going to regret that if Fister's elbow inflammation reported this month turns out to be serious.

New York Mets - 74-88, 3.8 runs scored per game (24th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Mets added three 30+ free agents (SP Bartolo Colon, 41 in May; LF Curtis Granderson, 33; RF Chris Young, 30) to some promising youngsters (CF Juan Lagares, whose bat not keep his outstanding glove in the lineup; SP Zack Wheeler; SP Noah Syndergaard, who will probably start the year in the minors). But oh, for those Matt Harvey days... Prediction: More runs scored, more allowed, 74-88.

Philadelphia Phillies - 73-89, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.6 runs allowed per game (25th in MLB): The Phillies are making noises about embracing modern fielding analysis, which should help their newly-acquired groundball pitchers A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez. But other than those moves, they're still a really old team (key offseason acquisitions: Marlon Byrd, 36; Burnett, 37; Hernandez, 33) that can't score runs even in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, fewer allowed, 70-92.

Miami Marlins - 62-100, 3.2 runs scored per game (30th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): The Marlins play in a pitchers' park, but their offense was really was bad as it looked: They scored easily the fewest runs in baseball at home and on the road. Among the new starters this year are 2B Rafael Furcal, who is 36, missed last year with Tommy John surgery, and will start at second base for the first time since 2002; and 3B Casey McGehee, who last year batted .292 with 28 homers and 93 RBI--in Japan. At least they'll have a full season of Jose Fernandez, knock on wood. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 65-97.